廖市无双：分歧渐生，本轮上涨终点在哪里？20250706 摘要 Q&A 今年银行板块的表现如何？浙商证券对银行板块的投资策略是什么？ 今年银行板块表现非常出色，早在年初就被纳入浙商证券的十大金股名单中， 并在 5 月份进一步加大了配置比例。5 月 12 日和 18 日两次电话会议中建议投 资者切换部分资产到大金融领域，包括银行。从那时起，银行板块走势非常漂 亮。经过深入研究，发现银行可能处于牛市中段，因此继续推荐该板块。 当前市场分歧主要体现在哪些方面？ 当前市场分歧主要体现在两个方面：一是对市场强弱的判断，有人认为市场强 劲，有人认为涨势乏力；二是对板块轮动速度和热点的看法，有人认为市场不 断有新热点出现，总有赚钱效应，而另一部分人则认为热点不多，轮动速度太 快，没有明确主线。这些分歧反映了投资者对当前市场状况的不确定性。 当前市场热点包括家电、电力、工程试验、煤炭等偏红利的板块，但这 些热点并非主升浪性质，仅为小突破。综合金融和科技板块出现一定程 度回吐，表明当前行情并非主升段行情。 未来一个季度甚至半年，消费、成长和金融这三个行业风格预计将居于 前列。无风险利率下降、美联储预期降息以及国内产业景气状态企 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 07 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.32%，深成指 收跌 0.25%，创业板指收跌 0.36%。沪深两市成交额 14283.65 亿元。 申万行业方面，银行、传媒、综合领涨，美容护理、有色金属、基础 化工领跌。港股方面，恒生指数收跌 0.64%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.33%； 海外方面，美国三大指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.77%，标普 500 收涨 0.83%，纳指收涨 1.02%。 【重要新闻】 【沪深北交易所《程序化交易管理实施细则》7 月 7 日起实施】《实 施细则》明确高频交易标准，即单账户每秒申报、撤单笔数合计最高 达到 300 笔以上，或者单账户全日申报、撤单笔数合计最高达到 20000 笔以上。同时，《实施细则》对高频交易作出差异化监管安排，包括 额外报告要求、从严管理异常交易行为、实行差异化收费标准等。 【财政部发布通知，决定 7 月 6 日起，在政府采购活动中对部分自欧 ...

"武汉的傍晚太美了，有云有晚霞，配上城市建筑风景，比照片里还要动人。"7月5日傍晚，在巴公房子前，从无锡自驾来汉的王女士 一家四口正举着手机拍照。她不停地调整手机角度，将孩子的身影与百年建筑、蓝天白云框在同一幅画面里，"我们白天去了湖北省博物馆 游览，下午就趁着快要日落时来个城市漫游，这个时间的光线也十分适合拍照"。 , 18 a d 2 a d 1 a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a d a ca di a control and the maint F 12 4 HD LEST 9 a 77 0 1107 AS -北京 t with the 45 04 and the H 900 F t and a t - 1 r First HD t are ster the of the r 201 ap ll 旅 e TAN 2-1 0 WARRE VIE 012 63 Am 4 635 00 y 0 JE 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is selling a 45% stake in its subsidiary, Wuhan Contemporary Time Media Co., Ltd., to optimize its asset structure and promote sustainable development, with the transaction price set at RMB 2.7261 million [1][3][10] Group 1: Transaction Overview - The board of directors approved the sale of the 45% stake in Time Media on May 21, 2025, and authorized management to handle the transfer process [3] - The public listing for the sale began on June 3, 2025, with a set price of RMB 2.7261 million [3] - The buyer, Shunyan Litrade Co., Ltd., was confirmed on July 1, 2025, and the transfer contract was signed on July 3, 2025 [4][3] Group 2: Transaction Details - The contract specifies that the stake will be sold for RMB 2.7261 million, with the buyer required to pay the full amount within five working days after the contract takes effect [9] - The contract includes a penalty clause for any party that unilaterally terminates the agreement, requiring a payment of 10% of the transfer price as compensation [9][10] - The transaction will not significantly impact the company's normal operations, and Time Media will no longer be included in the company's consolidated financial statements post-sale [10][11] Group 3: Buyer Information - Shunyan Litrade Co., Ltd. is not listed as a dishonest executor and has no other relationships with the company or its major shareholders [5]

报告导读： 近期AI伴侣EVE火爆出圈，该产品可以通过语音、视频交流互动，并通过给客 户点奶茶等方式，实现更为深度和真实的虚拟陪伴体验，我们认为随着大模型的功能不断 进步，调用成本不断下降，AI应用有望迎来突破。 本周传媒（申万）指数上涨2.70%，位居31个行业第6名，强于沪深300（上涨1.54%）、上证指数（上涨 1.40%）、上证中小（上涨1.43%）、深证成指（上涨1.25%）、创业板指（上涨1.50%）。细分板块龙头 景气持续，建议布局垂直细分领域业绩有望持续高增的投资机会。 AI大模型持续进步，应用端有望迎来突破。 2023年以来国内AI大模型发展迅速，百度、字节、腾讯、华 为等大厂，以及百川智能、月之暗面等创新企业纷纷发布自身的大模型产品，国内大模型进入高速发展 期。我们认为2024年以来Kimi、豆包等大模型逐步出圈，并带来用户使用习惯的养成，2025年以来随着 DeepSeek-R1等模型的发布，性能更强，但成本更低，有望带来下游更为广泛的应用落地和商业化机会。 目前DeepSeek、豆包、元宝、通义千问等大模型用户数均在快速增长，并通过问答互动的方式，逐步取代 传统搜索，成为AI时代新的 ...

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Ecological Civilization Guiyang International Forum focuses on the theme of "Sustainable Development SDGs Ten-Year Review and Outlook - International Contribution of Global Development Initiatives" [1] - The forum discusses the achievements of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) over the past decade and the pathways for implementing global development initiatives [1] Group 2 - The "Silk Road Partner Program" was officially launched at the forum, marking the beginning of China's ecological products reaching the world from Guizhou [3] - The program is driven by a three-dimensional approach of "Ecological Products + Cultural IP + Green Finance," aiming to create a standardized model for Chinese industries going global [3] - The initial focus of the program is on the Central Asian market, with plans to expand to ASEAN and Central and Eastern Europe, promoting Guizhou's unique ecological industries such as kiwi, tea, liquor, and traditional Chinese medicine [3] - The launch of the program is seen as a new starting point for sharing opportunities between China's ecological industries and countries along the Belt and Road, injecting new momentum into global sustainable development [3]

- The report highlights the "WanDe Micro Cap Index" as a dynamic strategy index rather than a static one, with its returns driven by micro-cap style and daily rebalancing that generates a "reversal effect"[12] - The reversal effect is attributed to the liquidity spillover effect, which has been amplified by the shift in market participant structure since 2021, where individual investors gained pricing power over institutional investors, favoring smaller-cap stocks[12] - The report suggests that the trading heat for small-cap stocks is likely to continue in July, supported by marginal optimism in overseas markets and eased liquidity shocks from U.S. Treasury issuance[12] - The "Barra Style Factors" analysis indicates positive returns for fundamental-related factors, with a preference for value over growth, particularly BP value assets[23] - Transaction-related factors such as short-term momentum, long-term reversal, and low-volatility stocks are expected to deliver excess returns[23] - The report notes a shift in market preference from extreme small-cap styles to larger-cap styles, as evidenced by the positive returns of the size factor and the expanded drawdown of the non-linear size factor[23] - The weekly performance of style factors includes metrics such as turnover (0.2%), financial leverage (0.2%), earnings volatility (0.2%), and BP value (0.2%), among others[24] - Negative returns are observed for non-linear size (-0.2%) and volatility (-0.3%), indicating a divergence in market preferences[24]

Group 1 - The North Exchange's 50 Index increased by 2.73% in June 2025, outperforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board but lagging behind the Growth Enterprise Market [3][6][11] - In the first half of 2025, the North Exchange's 50 Index surged by 39%, significantly outperforming other major indices, while the Specialized and New Index rose by 49% [3][6][11] - The top-performing sectors in June 2025 included oil and petrochemicals, media, and transportation, with notable companies achieving substantial gains [11][15][17] Group 2 - A total of 31 companies saw their stock prices rise by 20% or more in June 2025, with seven companies exceeding 40% growth, primarily in machinery and petrochemical sectors [15][16] - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange A-shares reached 52x as of June 30, 2025, which is 141% of the Growth Enterprise Market's valuation and 91% of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's valuation [21][30] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable long-term growth and unique production capabilities, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, as well as recent hot themes like defense and low-altitude economy [27][30] Group 3 - The trading volume on the North Exchange decreased to 269.90 billion shares in June 2025, with a slight drop in daily trading value to around 304 billion yuan [17][18] - The average daily turnover rate for the North Exchange was 69% in June 2025, down from 77% in May [17][19] - The report indicates that the North Exchange's market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a cautious approach [27][30] Group 4 - The report highlights the upcoming earnings disclosures for 23 companies in mid-August 2025, indicating a focus on companies with expected strong Q2 performance [28][30] - The North Exchange is in a normalization process for new stock issuances, with one company scheduled for IPO review next week [45]

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（6月30日至7月4日） A 股呈现 "深强沪弱" 特征，上证 50 上涨 1.21%，沪深 300 上涨 1.54%，市净率处于近 5 年中位数附近，受新能源和电子板块提振，创业板指大涨 1.50%，但科创 50 却 逆势下跌 0.35%，银行股指数创新高，显示资金从高估值赛道向政策受益领域迁移。全周上证指数上涨 1.40%，深证指数上涨1.25%，创业板指上涨1.50%。 行业板块： 上周 Wind一级平均涨幅1.30%，Wind百大概念指数上涨比例78%。板块方面， 81%板块获 得正收益，钢铁、建筑材料、银行相对表现良好，分别上涨5.06%、3.96%、3.77%，综合、传媒、农林 牧渔等均出现2%以上的涨幅，而仅有美容护理、非银金融、计算机走弱，分别下跌0.55%、0.72%、 1.28%。 基金表现 ： 上周 万得全基指数上涨 0.71% 。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数上涨 1.60% ，万得偏股混合型基金指数上涨 1.25% ，万得债券型基金指数上涨 0.20% 。 图 一周市场 图 01 全球大类资产回顾 大类资产方面，上周 国际权益市场略有分化，美股延续涨势 ...