Investment Insights - The equity market showed some heat before the Spring Festival holiday (February 9-13, 2026), with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.36%, the CSI 500 up by 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.22%. However, market sentiment remained restrained, and trading volume did not effectively expand, staying around 2 trillion [3][5][6] - The holiday period introduced uncertainties due to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the Middle East situation, impacting market dynamics. The U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, with core PCE inflation rising to 3%, and the Fed's FOMC minutes indicated a cautious stance on further rate cuts, reducing optimistic expectations for monetary easing [4][6] - Domestic consumption data during the holiday was mixed, with travel traffic reaching a historical high, indicating a robust service economy focused on tourism. However, there was internal structural differentiation, with traditional sectors like film and real estate underperforming, while sectors like travel and smart wearable devices thrived [5][6] Fixed Income Market Insights - The bond market performed well in the week leading up to the Spring Festival (February 9-14, 2026), with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.62 basis points to 1.31%, the 10-year yield down by 2.03 basis points to 1.79%, and the 30-year yield down by 0.50 basis points to 2.25%. This performance was driven by pre-holiday demand for bond allocation [7][8] - There are mixed factors in the bond market, with potential short-term liquidity pressure due to the upcoming reverse repos. However, historical trends suggest that the central bank may maintain a supportive stance, making liquidity disturbances likely manageable [2][7] - The current 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 1.8%, indicating increased resistance to further declines. The market may experience reduced demand for bond purchases post-holiday, especially with the upcoming Two Sessions and a low probability of rate cuts [2][7] Sector Performance - The technology and media sectors were the main rebound hotspots, with a notable recovery in technology stocks. The market's main narrative continues to revolve around AI developments, with specific sectors like power generation and gas turbines seeing collective gains [3][6] - The upcoming Two Sessions on March 4 is expected to finalize the detailed planning for the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may solidify positive policy expectations for technology growth. However, there is a caution against overextending growth expectations, which could lead to a market correction [6][7]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market closed in the green, with a total trading volume of 2.2 trillion yuan [1][5][12] - The oil and petrochemical sector led the gains with an increase of 5.53% [1][5][12] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by complex overseas conditions, including rising geopolitical risks due to the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran [1][8] Economic Data - In January, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% in the total social financing stock [3][10] - The increase in RMB loans was 4.71 trillion yuan, with M2 and M1 growing by 9% and 4.9% respectively [3][10] - The Spring Festival saw record-high consumption levels, with significant increases in travel orders and per capita spending [3][10] Federal Reserve Insights - The January meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve indicated a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts, with most members believing that the risks of job losses have diminished while inflation risks remain [4][11] - Following the release of the minutes, market expectations for interest rate cuts have become more cautious, with a 90% expectation of maintaining rates in March [4][11] Trade Policy Developments - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs was illegal, leading to the announcement of new tariffs, which are set at 10% and increased to 15% shortly after [2][9] - This ruling marks a new phase in US trade policy, although it does not affect tariffs on specific industries like automobiles and steel [2][9] Sector Performance - The sectors showing the most significant gains include oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and basic chemicals, while media, computer, and retail sectors experienced declines [5][12] - A total of 4,006 stocks rose, while 1,392 stocks fell, indicating a generally positive market trend [5][12] Trading Volume and Margin Data - The market's trading volume reached 22,184.41 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day [7][13] - The margin trading balance reported a decrease, closing at 25,881.25 billion yuan [7][13]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Light Media experienced a significant drop in stock price, hitting the daily limit down of 20% [1] - The trading volume for Light Media reached 6.598 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.76% [1] - Data from the post-market trading board indicates that the Shenzhen Stock Connect special seat bought 130 million yuan and sold 407 million yuan, resulting in a net sell of 21.21 million yuan from one institutional special seat [1] Group 2 - The Beijing Wudaokou Securities Business Department of Shouchao Securities recorded a net sell of 217 million yuan [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.87% to close at 4117.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.36% to 14291.57 points. The ChiNext Index gained 0.99% to finish at 3308.26 points, although the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 0.34% to 1465.37 points. Overall, 4003 stocks rose, while 1388 stocks declined, with a total trading volume of 22021 billion yuan, an increase of 2194 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, several sectors led the gains, including Oil & Petrochemicals (5.53%), Building Materials (3.71%), Basic Chemicals (3.45%), Nonferrous Metals (3.31%), and Coal (3.10%). Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included Media (-3.20%), Computers (-1.81%), Retail (-1.46%), Food & Beverage (-0.86%), and Non-Bank Financials (-0.42%) [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the most significant gains today included Cultivated Diamonds, Glass Fiber, Phosphorus Chemicals, Oil & Gas Extraction, Superhard Materials, Natural Gas, and others. In contrast, sectors such as Short Drama Games, DeepSeek, Kimi, and AIGC experienced pullbacks [2].

Group 1 - The company Tianwei Vision (002238.SZ) has stated that it has not yet commenced AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to focus on technology as the main theme for 2026, with attention also on consumer and dividend sectors as investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies and Themes - E Fund emphasizes the increasing value of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, with dividend yields around 5% and a potential influx of funds into these assets in 2026 [1] - 华夏基金 suggests that concerns over tightening overseas liquidity may be overestimated, and long-term investors could find attractive entry points in sectors like AI, media, and lithium batteries [2] - 富国基金 predicts a "central oscillation upward" trend for the A-share market in 2026, driven by recovery opportunities in consumption and real estate [3] - 汇添富 identifies A-shares as the most promising asset for 2026, highlighting the clear trend in the AI industry and the potential for valuation increases [8] - 博时基金 recommends focusing on emerging industries, resource upgrades, and domestic demand recovery as key investment directions for 2026 [10] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - 国泰基金 notes a policy shift towards domestic demand, which is expected to enhance China's economic outlook and asset returns, suggesting a good time for mid-term adjustments in sectors like AI and power equipment [5] - 鹏华基金 highlights the wine sector's potential for valuation recovery in 2026, while also emphasizing the attractiveness of the tourism sector in Hong Kong stocks [6][7] - 景顺长城 focuses on the long-term structural benefits for the equity market, particularly in technology sectors like AI, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9] - 银河基金 discusses the commercial viability of space solar power and the need for domestic companies to overcome challenges in reusable rocket technology [11] - 东方红 suggests that cyclical sectors have high potential but require supply-side adjustments, while advocating for a bottom-up approach to identify undervalued stocks [12]

Market Performance - On February 24, the market opened high but retreated before rebounding, with all three major indices rising over 1% by midday. The ChiNext Index increased by 1.76%, and over 4,200 stocks in the market were in the green [1][6] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) rose by 1.95% to 1.567 yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.81% and a trading volume of 662 million yuan, making it the largest in its category [1][6] Sector Trends - The humanoid robot industry gained significant attention due to its collective appearance during the Spring Festival Gala, enhancing market expectations for a post-holiday tech rally. Historical data from Huajin Securities indicates that technology growth sectors typically outperform in the first 5 to 10 trading days after the Spring Festival [1][8] - The top-performing sectors in the first 5 trading days after the Spring Festival over the past decade include computers (5 times), electronics (4 times), telecommunications (3 times), and media (3 times) [1][8] Investment Opportunities - Institutions are optimistic about three main lines: technology growth focusing on AI, robotics, and storage chips. Huachuang Securities believes that the technology sector is likely to lead the market due to concentrated industrial catalysts during the Spring Festival [3][8] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) offers a convenient tool for long-term investors interested in China's technology growth sector, with a return of 36.48% over the past three years, outperforming its benchmark and ranking 440th among 1,636 similar products [3][8]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global financial markets are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and corporate earnings, leading to significant fluctuations in various asset classes. For example, the US stock market declined due to Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of the trade - agreement approval, while the precious metals market rose due to increased risk - aversion [5][6]. - The energy market is influenced by the Iran - US nuclear negotiation, with expectations of increased Iranian oil supply putting downward pressure on oil prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Stock Markets**: US major indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) fell, with IBM and American Express leading the decline. European indices (DAX, CAC40, FTSE 100) also closed lower. The reasons include Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of trade - agreement approval [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose due to increased risk - aversion from geopolitical tensions, tariff policy changes, and other factors [6]. - **Energy**: US crude oil and Brent oil futures fell as the Iran - US nuclear negotiation showed signs of progress, increasing the expectation of more Iranian oil supply [7]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, except for LME tin which rose [7]. Important News Macro News - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes dropped 2.1%. The US will stop collecting certain illegal tariffs. There is still a risk of US military strikes against Iran. India postponed a trade delegation plan. China is assessing the impact of US tariff rulings and urges the US to cancel unilateral tariffs. The EU suspended the approval of a trade agreement with the US. The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" [9][11]. Energy Futures - Saudi Aramco sold condensate oil. Methanol supply in Southeast Asia is restricted due to planned maintenance. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have different forecasts for oil prices, with Goldman Sachs raising price forecasts for Q4 2026 and 2027, and Morgan Stanley expecting a short - term increase followed by a decline [14][16][18]. Metal Futures - The US energy storage market is expected to grow 21%. Lebanon may sell part of its gold reserves. UBS is positive on gold, with a target price of $6200/ounce [20][21]. Black - Series Futures - China's iron ore arrivals decreased, but global iron ore shipments increased. Vietnam plans to build a large - scale steel plant. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of Chinese pig - iron enterprises decreased, and inventory increased [23][25]. Agricultural Products Futures - Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased in February. Argentina's soybean moisture conditions improved, and the production forecast remains unchanged [27][28]. Financial Markets Financial - 143 companies have submitted IPO applications in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026. Deloitte predicts a better performance in the Hong Kong IPO market this year [30]. Industry - Payment transactions on Chinese New Year's Eve increased. The real - estate market may show more stabilization signals. China's AI governance system is maturing [31]. Overseas - The US may adjust tariff application methods and continue steel - aluminum tariffs. The Fed has about 75 basis - points to reach the neutral rate. India plans to invest $200 billion in AI. The Australian central bank may tighten policy. UK unemployment reached a new high [32][34][35]. International Stock Markets - US and European stock markets rose, while the Japanese market fell. High - end companies made significant stock - position adjustments. The UK may adjust accounting rules to attract Chinese companies. Australia simplifies corporate governance rules. Some companies announced major transactions or reported good earnings [36][38][41]. Commodities - Precious metals, oil, and most base metals futures fell due to factors such as progress in the Iran - US nuclear negotiation and reduced risk - aversion [43]. Bonds - US Treasury yields had mixed changes. Japanese bonds rose, and the 2029 fiscal - year bond issuance may increase [45]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [46]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: Include Japan's trade balance, UK's inflation and housing - price index, US's new - home construction, and other data [48]. - **Events**: New Zealand's central - bank rate decision, European Central Bank officials' speeches, and the Fed's release of meeting minutes [50]. - **Market Closures**: Chinese, South Korean, and Vietnamese stock markets are closed due to the Spring Festival [52].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.00% and trading volume increasing significantly compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - **Petroleum and Petrochemicals**: Increased by 4.95%, with a trading volume of 175.48 billion yuan, up 107.67% from the previous day, led by Keli Co., which rose by 22.04% [1] - **Building Materials**: Gained 4.10%, with a trading volume of 178.07 billion yuan, up 28.68%, driven by International Composite Materials, which increased by 19.98% [1] - **Telecommunications**: Rose by 3.62%, with a trading volume of 956.26 billion yuan, up 39.82%, with Runze Technology leading at 13.57% [1] - The industries with the largest declines included: - **Media**: Decreased by 3.90%, with a trading volume of 580.85 billion yuan, led by Light Media, which fell by 19.99% [1] - **Computers**: Fell by 1.50%, with a trading volume of 984.63 billion yuan, with Keda Guochuang dropping by 15.32% [1] - **Retail**: Decreased by 1.19%, with a trading volume of 109.06 billion yuan, led by China Duty Free, which fell by 10.00% [1] Stock Performance - A total of 4,188 stocks rose, with 72 hitting the daily limit up, while 1,188 stocks fell, with 16 hitting the daily limit down [1]

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 24 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国高院驳回"特朗普关税"后的波折与推演 继美国国际贸易法院与联邦巡回上诉法院先后裁定"特朗普关税"违法后 （参见《法院裁决能阻止特朗普加征关税吗？》，2025/5/30），当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日（周五），美国最高法院判定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）征收的"对等关税"和"芬太尼关税"违法。如我们此前 预测，最高法院判决后，特朗普政府当日提出替代性关税政策，表示将依据 美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条在常规关税基础上对全球商品加征 10%的 关税，并很快次日在社交媒体 Truth Social 上表示将对部分国家关税上调至 15%，但未公布具体国家列表（参见《最高法院挑战"特朗普关税"后续如 何？》，2025/11/12）。然而，我们认为特朗普关税风波并不会由此平息，不 仅后续关税政策仍有变数，围绕已征收的大量关税返还的机制和体量也仍悬 而未决。IEEPA 关税被驳回彰显了美国"三权分立"体 ...