投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall remains stable at 103.48 points this week, with 5 categories of goods increasing, 4 remaining stable, and 5 decreasing in price [1] Group 1: Price Increases - The steel category index increased to 101.20 points, up by 0.26 points, driven by rising prices of various steel products due to restored production demand and increased raw material costs [1] - The lighting category index rose to 104.31 points, up by 0.05 points, with outdoor lighting and accessories seeing slight price increases due to higher sales from increased outdoor activities [2] - The building decoration materials category index reached 105.74 points, up by 0.05 points, primarily due to rising prices of decorative materials and increased demand for certain products like dragon bones [3] Group 2: Price Decreases - The grain, oil, and food category index fell to 94.93 points, down by 0.25 points, with prices of various food items decreasing due to high inventory levels and competitive market conditions [4] - The board category index decreased to 98.13 points, down by 0.08 points, as the prices of materials like gypsum board and plywood fell due to lower production costs from declining raw material prices [5] - The automotive parts and accessories category index dropped to 94.33 points, down by 0.06 points, mainly due to decreased prices of automotive parts amid intense competition [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The domestic market sentiment continues to warm up, and the risk appetite continues to rise. Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations, leading to a rebound of the US dollar index from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, indicating weakening domestic demand, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has weakened the impact of US trade policy on the domestic economy and boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The RMB exchange rate and domestic stock market continue to strengthen. For assets, the stock index rebounds with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond corrects with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, the black metals fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as insurance, port shipping, and securities, the domestic stock market continues to rise. Fundamentally, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the tariff reduction policy between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to decline overnight. The main contract of COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200/ounce mark, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell more than 2% to 748 yuan/gram. Weaker - than - expected US inflation data supported the US dollar. The release of the China - US Geneva Joint Statement eased trade tensions, and the global risk - aversion sentiment significantly cooled down. The US dollar stabilized and rebounded, and the continuous strength of the US stock market suppressed the rise of gold. Gold is under short - term pressure, but the weakening of the US dollar's credit margin provides structural support for the gold price, and the value of gold allocation remains. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, and the market trading volume was at a low level. The substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff issue and the lower - than - expected US CPI data in April increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the construction steel inventory of Steel Valley Network continued to decline by 270,000 tons, and the apparent consumption increased slightly. It is currently the off - season for steel demand, and the demand decline trend may continue. In terms of supply, steel mills' profits are considerable, and the daily output of hot metal is at a high level this year, but the output of finished products has decreased recently. In the off - season, the subsequent demand may not be sufficient to support the current high output. It is advisable to view the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation idea [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. Steel mills' profits are considerable, and the hot - metal output is at a high level in the short term, but it is likely to decline in the future, and there are significant differences in the market regarding the decline path. In terms of supply, the iron - ore shipment volume decreased by 215,000 tons month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 951,000 tons month - on - month. Considering that the second quarter is the traditional peak season for iron - ore shipments, the shipment and arrival volumes will increase later. The port inventory increased by 1.41 million tons on Monday compared with last Friday. The iron - ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and the spot price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The output of construction steel and hot - rolled coils of Steel Valley Network continued to decline, and the demand for ferroalloys remained weak. The supply of silicon iron also continued to decline. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within an interval [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows that the US crude - oil inventory increased by 3.45 million barrels last week, the largest increase since March. Tensions over the Iranian nuclear issue may increase oil - price volatility. The oil price may be in a correction phase recently, and the 50 - day moving average will form resistance at around $63.9 [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price remains stable at a high level following the oil price, and the overall supply is at a low level. The downstream demand has been boosted to some extent recently, and the inventory transfer from factories to society is smooth, with signs of inventory reduction in social warehouses. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: After the increase of the crude - oil center, the PX outer - market price remains at around $840. With more PX maintenance and the increase of PTA price, PX rises in resonance with the polyester chain. The PX supply will be tighter later, and it will remain strongly oscillating in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The basis first rose and then fell. The downstream leading manufacturers' statement of joint production cuts may hit the PTA demand. The PTA price has risen too fast recently, and the downstream production and sales have diverged. It is likely to have a phased correction, and then wait for the stabilization of the crude - oil price and the improvement of the terminal situation [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol has risen significantly due to the early maintenance of large plants, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. It may start the de - stocking channel, but it may have a phased correction in the short term due to downstream production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The polyester price remains oscillating at a high level following the crude - oil price, and the short - fiber price has rebounded significantly. The short - fiber will continue to be strong in the short term [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol in Jiangsu Taicang continues to be strong. The overall basis weakens, and the supply pressure is prominent. The price may be repaired in the short term but has downward space in the medium and long term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price oscillates upward. The production has reached a historical high, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamental situation has weakened marginally. The LP spread is expected to strengthen in the short term [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE market price rises. The overall maintenance of PE devices is expected to exceed expectations, and the inventory has decreased. The PE price is expected to be repaired in the short term [12]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has been raised. The domestic supply is high, and the export policy has boosted the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term, but the upward driving force of the market is insufficient without more favorable policies [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In April, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The copper - ore processing fee has declined recently, and the decline rate has slowed down. It is about to enter the off - season for demand, and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs will boost the demand. The copper price oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose significantly today, driven by the overall commodity - rising atmosphere. After the emotional digestion, it is advisable to try short - selling [15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season, with weak marginal demand. The tin price oscillates in the short term, and the news of the resumption of production in Wa State and the risk of weakening demand pressure the price [15].

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.7% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kilogram, down 3.0%, with significant declines in tomatoes, zucchini, and green beans by 9.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.7% and 0.3% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices slightly decreased, with pork at 20.77 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4%, while lamb and beef also fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable overall, with some fish types experiencing minor declines and others seeing slight increases [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil down 0.2%, while canola oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits increased slightly, with grapes, apples, and pears rising by 2.0%, 1.6%, and 1.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials generally decreased, with methanol, sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene falling by 2.0%, 1.9%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0 diesel down by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals mainly declined, with aluminum and zinc decreasing by 1.2% and 0.1%, while copper saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2] - Coal prices experienced slight declines, with thermal coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and coking coal priced at 770 yuan, 1177 yuan, and 980 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices slightly retreated, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3462 yuan, 3670 yuan, and 3599 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with slight increases, as the price of compound fertilizer remained unchanged while urea rose by 0.1% [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.2% and 0.2% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "American exceptionalism" is converging, accelerated by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and trade imbalances, leading to a shift in global investment focus towards Asia and Europe [3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Context - The core of "American exceptionalism" is tied to the dollar's role as a global reserve currency, which has been challenged by trade deficits and the need to maintain dollar stability [3]. - The phenomenon of "American exceptionalism" is expected to peak in early 2025, with its convergence driven by fiscal and trade imbalances in the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends in Asia - The convergence of "American exceptionalism" enhances the investment outlook for Asia, as global investors are expected to recalibrate their focus away from the U.S. towards more stable and undervalued Asian markets [4]. - Since early May, Asian currencies have experienced a collective surge, attributed to a weaker dollar, trade surpluses, and reduced dollar absorption effects [5]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - Investors are advised to enhance portfolio volatility resistance, with expectations that government bonds in the U.S. and Europe may outperform stocks amid economic slowdowns [6]. - Gold is recommended as a risk-hedging asset, with a buying opportunity identified in the range of $3,000 to $3,250 per ounce [7]. - A shift in investment from U.S. equities to European and Chinese stocks is suggested, driven by increased policy support in these regions [7]. Group 4: Investment Focus in China - The Chinese stock market is characterized by an "internal focus," with pricing logic primarily based on domestic economic growth [8]. - The total net profit of all listed companies in China is projected to increase by 3.58% year-on-year, with significant growth in agriculture, steel, and technology sectors [8][9]. - Key investment themes in China include sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies, import substitution, fiscal stimulus, and infrastructure development [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress of the China-US trade talks has boosted the overall global risk appetite, and the domestic risk appetite is also expected to be favorably affected in the short term. For assets, the stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to be weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are expected to oscillate, and all are under cautious observation [3]. - The demand for steel is expected to be weak, and the prices of steel futures and spot have widened their decline. The prices of ferrous alloys are expected to oscillate within a range. The prices of energy - chemical products have rebounded slightly due to the China - US trade talks, but there are still long - term downward pressures. Non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, and the short - term trends are affected by the China - US talks and other factors [6][9][13]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US trade talks ended positively, and details will be announced on Monday. Domestically, China's exports in April exceeded expectations, and the China - US high - level talks in Switzerland achieved substantial progress. The stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are oscillating, all under cautious observation [3]. - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and software development, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The China - US talks and loose monetary policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market oscillated last week. Economic data shows resilience, and the market is re - pricing the Fed's policy path. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is under short - term observation [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets were weak last Friday. In May, it enters the off - season for steel demand. The apparent consumption of 5 major steel products decreased, and inventory started to rise. The supply also decreased slightly. Short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Steel demand has weakened, and although the iron - water output is still high, it is not supported by demand. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron)**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly, and that of silicon iron declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The China - US talks and domestic policy stimuli have improved the macro - sentiment, and oil prices have rebounded. However, the long - term downward path has been established, and the oil price will be under pressure in the later period but will continue to have high volatility in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The absolute price of asphalt has rebounded due to the progress of the trade agreement. The inventory removal has stagnated, the supply is low, and the demand has been slightly boosted. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX has many self - maintenance periods and follows the polyester chain to rise. It will continue to be in short supply in the later period and will maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand for PTA exists in the short term, but there are limitations to its long - term upward space. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory removal is postponed. It will continue to oscillate [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream processing profit of short - fiber is decreasing, and there is a risk of a decline in the high - operating rate. It will maintain a high - level range oscillation [10]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol has increased, and the supply pressure is prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and has downward pressure in the long term [11]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, but the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream of LLDPE is basically stable, and the supply has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday and requires cautious observation [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks may boost the market sentiment in the short term. The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for short positions can be sought in the medium term [13]. - **Aluminum**: The trade agreement between the US and the UK has a short - term positive impact on the market sentiment. The aluminum price rebound is approaching the end. Short - term long positions should be gradually liquidated, and short - position opportunities can be sought after the situation becomes clear [13]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by the China - US talks, the resumption of production in Wa State, and the weakening demand [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.37 yuan per kilogram, down 3.3%, with lettuce, green peppers, and tomatoes decreasing by 7.8%, 7.2%, and 6.0% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Fish wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with large hairtail fish decreasing by 1.7%, while carp, grass carp, silver carp, large yellow croaker, and crucian carp saw increases of 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil and flour decreasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while rice and peanut oil remained stable, and rapeseed oil increased by 0.1% [1] - Meat wholesale prices were predominantly rising, with pork priced at 20.86 yuan per kilogram, up 0.2%, and beef increasing by 0.1%, while lamb decreased by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw slight increases, with grapes, citrus, and bananas rising by 4.5%, 3.1%, and 1.3% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and polypropylene dropping by 3.0%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively, while soda ash increased by 0.1% [2] - The wholesale prices of refined oil generally declined, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 772 yuan per ton, down 0.5%, while two types of smokeless coal and coking coal increased by 0.3% each, priced at 1178 yuan and 981 yuan per ton respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices remained relatively stable, with zinc and copper decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while aluminum increased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw slight increases, with urea and compound fertilizers both rising by 0.1% [2] - Steel prices were predominantly rising, with high-speed wire, rebar, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3677 yuan, 3472 yuan, and 3790 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.6% and 0.6% respectively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]