Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 27, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, with the external crude oil market shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. Inventory levels are neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [4][7]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iranian situation has caused short - term weakness in external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In the supply - demand aspect, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have led to a wait - and - see attitude among enterprises for inventory procurement. The packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs due to price increases, and the operating rate and orders in the pipe industry are low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8550 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 217, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 64.4 tons (+2.1), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, the external crude oil market is volatile, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iranian situation has caused short - term weakness in external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In the supply - demand aspect, multiple PDH units have shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production willingness due to poor profit margins. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 9050 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 70, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.8%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 50.0 tons (-9.7), which is bullish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, the external crude oil market is volatile, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 8550 (+150), the price of the 05 contract is 8767 (+52), the basis is - 217 (+98), the warehouse receipt is 4429 (-223), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 64.4 (+2.1) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 9050 (+150), the price of the 05 contract is 9120 (+145), the basis is - 70 (+5), the warehouse receipt is 13013 (-280), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 50.0 (-9.7) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased. The import dependence has decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-27燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：由美国提出停火协议方案以及伊朗部分放开霍尔木兹海峡通行，中东局势存在缓和可能，油价下跌；偏空 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油656.37美元/吨，基差为279元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为806.11美元/吨，基差为645元/吨， 现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油3月25日当周库存为2659.9万桶，增加173万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏上；偏多 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多减，偏多 6、预期：原油整体呈现高位回落的走势，新加坡燃料油价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial and commodity markets, including overnight market trends, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and data on various futures and financial instruments. It reflects the complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and central bank policies on market performance. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 3.85% at $4376.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 6.22% at $68.12 per ounce [4]. - U.S. oil and Brent oil futures rose, with the U.S. oil main contract up 3.84% at $93.79 per barrel and Brent oil main contract up 4.15% at $101.3 per barrel [5]. - Most London base metals fell, except for LME aluminum which rose 0.37% to $3254.5 per ton [5]. Important News Macro News - U.S. President Trump may visit China in mid - May, and China and the U.S. are in communication about it [8]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is formulating a military plan for a "decisive strike" against Iran, with multiple options [8]. - Shanghai International Energy Exchange sets trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [8]. - Trump postponed the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days, providing a short - term respite for the global energy market [9]. - The possibility of a cease - fire between the U.S. and Iran remains low as their demands are beyond each other's acceptance [11]. - Iran released 10 oil tankers [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 13.40% week - on - week to 70.05 tons on March 25, 2026, due to rising industrial demand [13]. - China's liquefied gas sample enterprise storage capacity rate dropped to 24.92% as of March 26, 2026 [13]. - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and medium distillate inventories all increased in the week ending March 25 [13]. - Glass enterprise inventory reduction slowed down, with the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises at 7362.2 million heavy boxes as of March 26, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease [14]. - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased by 540 billion cubic feet to 18290 billion cubic feet in the week ending March 20, 2026, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [16]. Metal Futures - ANZ predicts that the aluminum price will peak at $3600 per ton in Q3 2026, and about 800 - 1000 million tons of production will be affected in 2026 due to supply disruptions in the Middle East [18]. - Nickel Industries Limited's Indonesian mine suspended operations after an accident [18]. - Turkey's central bank sold about 22 tons of gold and conducted about 31 tons of gold swap transactions last week, with its gold reserve dropping to 771.8 tons [18]. Black - Series Futures - In February 2026, China's steel exports increased by 1.1% month - on - month to 783.8 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.6% month - on - month to 36.9 million tons [22]. - As of the week ending March 26, 2026, rebar production decreased by 2.69% week - on - week, while apparent demand increased by 8.30% [22]. - An Australian mining company reduced operations due to diesel supply constraints and a tropical cyclone [23]. - HeSteel Group's silicon - manganese procurement volume in March 2026 was 5100 tons [23]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China was 21 yuan/ton [23]. Agricultural Futures - From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [26]. - U.S. soybean and corn inventories are expected to reach multi - year highs in 2026 [26]. - U.S. soybean and corn planting areas in 2026 are expected to change compared to previous years [26]. - U.S. soybean export net sales increased in the week ending March 19, 2026 [27]. - The number of un - priced sell orders for ICE cotton futures decreased by 1606 hands as of March 20 [27]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares declined with reduced trading volume, and the Hang Seng Index also fell [29]. - Some companies' first - quarter report disclosure times were announced [29]. - A company is considering an IPO in Hong Kong and seeking up to $1 billion in financing [30]. - The management and custody fees of a Hong Kong - stock - connect Internet ETF were reduced [30]. Industry - The first industry standard for embodied intelligence was released and will be implemented on June 1, 2026 [32]. - AI and robot program traffic has exceeded human user traffic [32]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [32]. - Shanghai's new - home transactions increased after the "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy [32]. - Guangdong Province optimized housing provident fund policies [33]. Overseas - Trump mentioned Iran's "gift" and the option to control Iranian oil [34]. - Iran is committed to ending the war and has taken measures to ensure the passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz [36]. - Russia hopes the Middle - East conflict will end in the coming weeks [36]. - The OECD predicts global and U.S. economic growth rates [36]. - U.S. initial jobless claims increased, and continuing claims decreased [37]. - The European Parliament voted to support a conditional implementation of the EU - U.S. trade agreement [37]. - The European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates if inflation soars [38]. - Germany's GDP growth may decline if the Middle - East conflict persists [38]. International Stock Markets - U.S. and European stock markets declined, and most Asia - Pacific stock markets also fell [39][40]. - SpaceX may list with a high proportion of shares allocated to individual investors [40]. - Wall Street's bonus pool reached a record high in 2025 [40]. Commodities - Trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures were set [42]. - Precious metals fell, while oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions [42]. - Most base metals declined [43]. - Iraq had to cut oil production due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [43]. - Turkey's central bank sold and swapped gold [45]. Bonds - China's inter - bank bond market heated up, and South Korea will repurchase bonds to stabilize the market [46]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [47]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include UK consumer confidence, China's industrial enterprise profits, etc. [50] - Upcoming events include speeches by central bank officials, conferences, and corporate earnings reports [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, with significant fluctuations in various futures markets. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their fundamentals and market sentiment [10][11][12]. - The global economic outlook is expected to have a slight recovery in 2027, but the US economic growth may slow down, and inflation remains high [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information - US President Trump will visit China from May 14 - 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication [6]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, 2026, at 8 pm EST. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with specific conditions [6]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat and warned of opening new fronts [7]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [7]. - The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy has led to a steady increase in new - home transactions in Shanghai, with a 3% year - on - year increase in second - hand housing net - signed transactions from March 1 to March 24 [7]. - Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is seeking a bill to levy tolls on the strait [8]. - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, while the US economic growth will slow down from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with an inflation rate of 4.2% in 2026 [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the number of continued claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million [9]. - Iraq had to cut oil production due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with the output of its southern main oil fields dropping by 80% to about 800,000 barrels per day [9]. - The Turkish central bank sold about 22 tons of gold last week, and its gold reserves dropped to 771.8 tons [9]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to pay attention to the US - Iran situation and stay on the sidelines for now. A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume, affected by the US - Iran situation and market sentiment [10][11]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep yield curve strategy. The bond market improved under the influence of risk - aversion sentiment, but the long - end is still not strong, and short - term bonds perform better [12]. 4. Black Commodities 4.1. Steel and Iron Ore - The overall demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils has a certain decline in some downstream consumption. The steel mills' current order situation is okay, but high inventory suppresses steel prices. The supply of steel is expected to increase slightly, and the cost side has strong support. The short - term trend is volatile, and the strategy is to hold the sold wide - straddle options for steel and iron ore and consider short - selling at high prices later [12][13]. 4.2. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The current supply of coking coal is sufficient, and the procurement willingness of coking enterprises is recovering. However, if the emotional premium fades, the prices may fall back [15][16]. 4.3. Ferroalloys - The supply - demand situation of silicon iron and manganese silicon is weakening at the margin. It is recommended to short at high prices following the industrial logic [17]. 5. Soda Ash and Glass - The short - term trend is affected by the spill - over of geopolitical energy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises; for glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the recovery of demand [19][20]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 6.1. Copper - The short - term copper price will fluctuate widely. The Middle - East situation has signs of easing but remains uncertain, and the accelerating inventory reduction provides some support [22]. 6.2. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. The mining end disturbance supports the price, while the weakening reality suppresses the upside. A callback due to weakening macro - sentiment is a good buying opportunity [24]. 6.3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the rebound. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly, and caution is needed in operation [25]. 7. Agricultural Products 7.1. Cotton - The cotton price fluctuates at a high level. The overall trend is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The domestic cotton market is in the de - stocking stage, and the import pressure restricts the price. In the long term, the expected reduction in cotton planting area is beneficial to the price [28][29]. 7.2. Sugar - The sugar price fluctuates and rebounds. The global sugar supply situation is controversial, and the domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure but is supported by the inverted import profit [30][31]. 7.3. Eggs - The short - term egg price is supported by the recovery of consumption and low inventory, but the supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [32]. 7.4. Apples - The high - quality apple supply is tight, and the price is expected to be strong. The market will maintain a stable and strong operation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the出库 progress in the producing areas and the actual sales in the selling areas [33][34]. 7.5. Corn - It is advisable to be cautious about chasing high prices to prevent a sharp fall. A 5 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be considered. The short - term supply is tight, but the policy regulation risk and the substitution of wheat may suppress the price [35]. 7.6. Red Dates - The red date market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm in the selling areas and the mentality of purchasers [36]. 7.7. Pigs - For futures, it is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts. The supply pressure continues, but the live - pig inventory is expected to start to decline [37]. 8. Energy and Chemicals 8.1. Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the supply risk is large. The market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation situation. The international oil price has risen [39][40]. 8.2. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will fluctuate at a high level following the oil price, and the key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [41]. 8.3. Plastics - The polyolefin price is slightly supported by the unstable Middle - East situation. The upstream production cut is expanding, and the future price depends on the end of the war [42]. 8.4. Rubber - The domestic rubber in Yunnan is starting to be harvested, and the price is affected by the synthetic rubber and the export situation of tires. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions [43]. 8.5. Synthetic Rubber - The price is driven by the cost side and may continue to rise in the short term, but caution is needed at high prices [44]. 8.6. Methanol - The short - term methanol price may be strong due to the geopolitical situation in Iran. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty [45][46]. 8.7. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price has both upward and downward drivers. It is advisable to maintain an intraday wide - range fluctuation strategy [47]. 8.8. Asphalt - The asphalt industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the profit has recovered [49]. 8.9. PVC - The PVC price is affected by the production cut of ethylene due to the Iran war. If the market sentiment turns bad, there may be a callback risk [49][50]. 8.10. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is supported by the high - level oil price and the supply contraction, but the downstream negative feedback is emerging. It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions [51][52]. 8.11. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price is affected by the geopolitical situation. If the Strait of Hormuz is opened, it may return to fundamental trading. The price is expected to weaken but may be relatively stronger than crude oil [53]. 8.12. Pulp - The pulp market is in a state of multi - empty game. The high inventory and weak demand in the real - world end and the cost and energy - related production cuts of overseas pulp mills are the key points of the game. Attention should be paid to the port inventory and product price increases [54]. 8.13. Logs - The log price is rising due to the increase in demand in the construction industry. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving capacity and port arrivals [55]. 8.14. Urea - The far - month urea contract should pay attention to the cost push and agricultural product price increases, while the near - month contract should follow the policy [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the deadlock in the cease - fire negotiations between the US and Iran and Trump's statement of delaying the strike on Iranian energy facilities for ten days, the prices of gold and silver have fallen. However, due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran peace talks and the easing of emotions, the prices of gold and silver will fluctuate. The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, oil prices are high, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, causing gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro - level [4][5][9][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures fell 3.85% to $4376.90 per ounce. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The US bond yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 8.34 basis points to 4.414%. The US dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.93, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 6.9206 [4] - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures fell 6.22% to $68.12 per ounce. Other market conditions are similar to those of gold [5] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.48, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts is 1067463 kilograms, unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Silver**: The basis is - 13, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts is 370299 kilograms, a decrease of 5795 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing, which is bullish [5] 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:00, Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson will talk about the US economy; 07:10, Fed Governor Barr will speak; Time TBD, the 2026 Global Developers Pioneer Conference will open, and the Brain - Computer Interface Innovation and Development Forum of the Zhongguancun Forum will be held; 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February; 15:00, UK's retail sales in February; 22:00, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in March; 23:00, Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economic outlook; 23:30, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voter) will talk about macro - economy and monetary policy, and San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter) will give an opening speech at a monetary policy seminar; At 00:00 the next day, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel will speak; On Sunday, many European countries will start daylight saving time, and the market trading time will be advanced by one hour [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, oil prices are high, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, causing gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro - level. The factors that are bullish for gold include global turmoil, tense Middle - East situation, the influence of the shadow Fed, the upcoming appointment of a new Fed chairman, Trump's tariff disputes, etc. The bearish factors include high oil prices leading to capital transfer to crude oil and related commodities, the rising expectation of Fed interest rate hikes, the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the ineffectiveness of reciprocal tariffs [9] - **Silver**: The logic is similar to that of gold. In addition, the photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and the hot supply - shortage game are also bullish factors. The bearish factors also include the deterioration of risk appetite [12][14] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.32% to 147,144, the short position increased by 5.47% to 44,494, and the net position decreased by 4.00% to 102,650. The SPDR gold ETF position remained unchanged [38][43] - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.10% to 240,033, the short position increased by 0.73% to 214,706, and the net position decreased by 4.96% to 25,327. The silver ETF position decreased slightly [41][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Tensions in Sino-US relations have affected the export of new US soybeans, putting pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,646, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 95,000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,224, with a basis of 513, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44% [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. Palm oil is in the tremor season [5] -利空: Oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in various varieties of forward contracts on dips [3] - In the short term, the trend of Treasury bond futures is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high levels for T and TL contracts [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 26, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to 3889.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.41% to 13606.44 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.34% to 3272.49 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 2.02% to 1288.81 points. Market turnover was 1957 billion yuan, a decrease of 235.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+0.59%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.47%), and banks (+0.37%) performed well; computers (-2.74%), non - bank finance (-2.74%), and communications (-2.35%) performed averagely. In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 915, 83, and 4490 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -24.5 billion, -27 billion, 14.1 billion, and 37.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -42.4 billion, -24.1 billion, +30.6 billion, and +35.9 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 156.58, 124.53, 41.73, and 5.47 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -15.53%, -12.34%, -7.06%, and -1.47% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 14%, 13%, 16%, and 36% respectively [2] - Specific performance data of various stock index futures contracts and spot indexes are shown in Table 1 [5] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 26, Treasury bond futures strengthened slightly. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.07%, T rose 0.08%, and TL rose 0.22% [3] - For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of -1.35bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.058, and an IRR of 1.19%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of -1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.055, and an IRR of 1.2%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of -0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.023, and an IRR of 1.34%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of -0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.097, and an IRR of 1.81% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 224 billion yuan and withdrew 13 billion yuan, with a net injection of 211 billion yuan [3] - Specific performance data of various Treasury bond futures contracts and spot bonds are shown in Table 2 [6] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of various sectors has declined [9] - Based on the changes of medium - term data in each module compared with the same period in the past five years (the month - on - month of year - on - year), a scoring system from -2 to +2 is used to represent the prosperity. Positive scores represent an improvement in prosperity, negative scores represent a weakening of prosperity, and a score of zero represents little change in prosperity [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend on Friday, with Shanghai rubber showing a volatile trend in the medium - term and synthetic rubber showing a volatile and bullish trend in the medium - term [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and bullish. The reference view is volatile and bullish [1]. - **Core Logic**: The US is taking actions in the Middle East. Trump has signaled a peace talk with Iran, which is intended to ease the financial market tension and boost risk appetite. Although the peace - talk signal was refuted by Iran, the international crude oil futures are in adjustment. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 maintained a volatile and bullish trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to continue this trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile and bullish; Medium - term: volatile and bullish; Intraday: volatile and bullish. The reference view is volatile and bullish [1]. - **Core Logic**: The sharp rise in synthetic rubber futures is mainly driven by the continuous increase in the price of butadiene, an upstream raw material. Due to geopolitical disturbances in Northeast Asia and the centralized reduction of cracking units in Japan and South Korea, the supply of butadiene, a by - product of ethylene cracking, has tightened significantly, and the inventory of butadiene at East China ports has continued to decline. The strong rise in the raw material end has directly affected the synthetic rubber futures market. The tightening supply has further pushed up the futures price. Supported by bullish factors, the domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a volatile and bullish trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to continue this trend on Friday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The global economic growth outlook is affected by the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, with potential impacts on inflation and economic growth. The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a significant impact on various futures markets [20]. - Different futures markets have different trends and influencing factors. For example, the stock index futures are affected by the decline of US stocks and global risk - preference changes; the bond futures are influenced by the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the central bank's monetary policy; the agricultural product futures are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies; the black metal futures are affected by overseas sentiment, raw material supply, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal futures are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors; the shipping and carbon market futures are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy factors; the energy - chemical futures are affected by the negotiation between the US and Iran, supply - demand balance, and energy price fluctuations. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of US stocks affects market sentiment. The stock index fell across the board on Thursday, and the futures contracts also declined. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and short - term indexes are expected to continue to fluctuate [20][21][22]. - **Bond Futures**: The risk preference in the market is volatile. The bond futures closed higher on Thursday. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity keeps the market funds stable. The future direction of the bond market may be determined by whether the energy price increase will be transmitted to the domestic core inflation [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has increased disturbance factors, and the price shows a wide - range shock. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and the price may decline in the future [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be strong due to the reduction of sugar production expectations in major producing countries. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international price slightly, with a trend of being strong [30][32][33]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The oil and fat market maintains a high - level shock. The supply of palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to decrease in March, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is still high. The US biodiesel policy is yet to be determined [34][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The wheat auction price has decreased, and the corn futures price shows a weak shock. The deep - processing demand has increased, but the supply pressure still exists [37][40][41]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has increased, and the price has generally declined. The feed price has a greater impact on the breeding profit, and the overall inventory of hogs is still large [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is strong, and the futures price shows a strong shock. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil factory still has a profit [45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand has recovered, and the egg price is mainly stable. The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and it is not recommended to chase the increase [50][51]. - **Apples**: The demand for apples is good, and the price is firm. The inventory of cold - storage apples is low, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited [52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and shows a shock - strengthening trend. The supply in this year is basically determined, and there is a rumor of production reduction in the new year. The demand in the downstream market is good [55][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and the steel market lacks a trend - type market. The demand for steel is still recovering, but the export is affected by the US - Iran conflict [59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and the trend is not obvious. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the geopolitical situation needs to be closely monitored [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is still disturbed, and the ore price is running at a high level. The market rumors are numerous, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at a high level [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by the large - scale fluctuation of crude oil, the price is running at a high - level shock. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are in a positive feedback, but they are easily affected by energy prices [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market maintains a shock. The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate, and the risk of war escalation still exists. The price is affected by factors such as energy prices and central bank gold sales [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The precious metals are in a weak shock. The market is concerned about the inflation caused by energy prices, and the unilateral position risk is high. Platinum can be considered for short - term long positions, and palladium is expected to follow weakly [74][75]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. The price direction is not clear [78]. - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the mining policy in Guinea and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The supply of bauxite may be reduced, and the price of alumina is affected by market sentiment [80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict has uncertainty. The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East may be affected by raw material shortages [83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical situation is uncertain. The supply of scrap aluminum is restricted, and the downstream demand is weak [87]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the macro and capital emotions. The basic situation at home and abroad supports the zinc price, but the macro uncertainty still exists [91]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level shock. The domestic secondary lead smelting is in a loss, but the consumption may improve in the peak season [92]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The supply - demand gap in March has narrowed, and the cost support is strong, but the price is still in a shock [95]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by the cost, it follows the nickel price. The chromium - based raw materials are rising, and the inventory is being reduced, but the supply may be loose in April [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price reaches the upper limit of the range, and it is recommended to participate in short - positions lightly. The supply - demand situation has no obvious change, and the industry meeting may have an impact on the price [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and a short - selling idea is recommended. The production in March has increased, and the inventory may accumulate in April [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price to run at a high level. The supply in April may be affected by the reduction of imports from Zimbabwe, and the price has both support and pressure [103]. - **Tin**: The US - Iran peace negotiation is in doubt, and the tin price is under pressure. The Middle East situation affects the helium export, which may be transmitted to the global semiconductor supply chain [106]. Shipping and Carbon Market - **Container Shipping**: The US postpones the energy strike against Iran for 10 days, and the spot price is expected to be reduced. The near - month and far - month contracts have different trends, and the geopolitical risk needs to be vigilant [108][110][111]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The bad weather in Western Australia causes concerns about ore shipments, and the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory supports the rent of large ships to rise. The market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the shipping situation in the Middle East [112][114][115]. - **Carbon Market**: The trading in the Chinese carbon market is dull, and the EU carbon market has the March contract delivery. The carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a shock - strengthening trend, and the Chinese carbon price may be affected by factors such as policy and demand [116][117][120]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation prospect is still unclear. The supply gap still exists, and the international oil price maintains high volatility [123]. - **Asphalt**: The supply contraction exists, and attention should be paid to the near - end oil price fluctuation risk. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the social inventory is high [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur prices should pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and the start - up rhythm of high - sulfur peak - season demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tight [127][129]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates around the geopolitical situation. The external market price of LPG has fallen, and the domestic price is affected by the negotiation situation [131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply of LNG in Qatar is interrupted, and the market supply gap is gradually accumulating [133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply has an expected unplanned reduction, and PTA enterprises are forced to reduce production. The PX device is in the traditional maintenance season, and the downstream enterprises are reducing production [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the price is in a shock - strengthening trend [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is revised down. The domestic and overseas production is affected, and the 4 - month import volume is expected to be significantly reduced [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The sales of short - fiber factories are differentiated, and it short - term follows the trend of polyester raw materials [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously being reduced. The production load of bottle - chip factories has increased, and the inventory is being reduced during the procurement peak season [148]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline this cycle. The cost increases, and the supply risk increases. The domestic and foreign production is affected, and the demand is gradually recovering [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of polyolefins of the two major oil companies accumulates. The market price is in a shock - strengthening trend, but the downstream demand is not strong [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is slightly decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is in a loss [156][158]. - **PVC**: It is mainly in a shock. The global supply of PVC is expected to be reduced, and the domestic supply also has a contraction expectation [159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a high - level shock. The supply is reduced, the demand growth is tested, and the price is expected to be weakly shocked [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a shock - decline. The inventory in the middle - stream is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [164][166]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range shock. The production in Iran is reduced, the domestic import is expected to be reduced, and the supply - demand situation is changing [167][169]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The domestic production is at a high level, the international supply is tight, and the price is affected by policies [172]. - **Pulp**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The supply exceeds the demand, and the demand support is insufficient [176][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market is under pressure. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance, and the price is weak [183]. - **Logs**: The market is generally strong. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The export of Vietnamese rubber has changed, and the domestic tire production line is increasing [187][190]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The market situation is similar to that of natural rubber, and the production of the tire production line is increasing [191][194].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will be in a range - bound oscillation, with the short - term being "oscillation", the medium - term being "oscillation", and the intraday being "weak". The core logic is the conflict between continuous policy benefits and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2606 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is the conflict between continuous policy benefits and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The main factor affecting the short - term trend of the stock index is the evolution path of the Middle East geopolitical situation. Due to the large differences between the US and Iran in the negotiation, there is high uncertainty. The market sentiment is cautious, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is low. Before the Middle East geopolitical risk is settled, the global macro - economy faces a recession risk, and the risk preference of the stock market is low. However, in the long - term, due to continuous policy benefits in China, the stock index has support. Overall, the stock index is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation in the short - term [5]