投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains and chemicals leading the losses. Platinum rose 10.58%, while styrene fell 2.87% [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The US manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the impact of incremental policies in Q4 2025 on the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals is a long - term standard allocation, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and investors can buy on dips. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Precious metals led the gains (platinum +10.58%), basic metals all rose (Shanghai tin +6.61%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass +0.56%), chemicals led the losses (styrene - 2.87%), most agricultural products fell (log - 1.90%), black series all fell (ferrosilicon - 1.44%), energy products all fell (low - sulfur fuel oil - 1.22%), most new energy materials fell (industrial silicon - 0.82%), shipping futures all fell (container shipping index (European line) - 0.39%), and most oilseeds fell (soybean meal - 0.33%) [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 9, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 1000 futures up 1.98%. Treasury bond futures also had small increases, and the US dollar index fell 0.36% [9]. - **Industry Index**: Most industries in the CITIC industry index rose on February 9, 2026. The communication industry led the gains with a daily increase of 5.07%, followed by the media industry with a 3.47% increase [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: As of February 6, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 0.33%, ICE Brent oil rose 0.81%, COMEX gold rose 2.03%, and LME copper rose 1.22% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 9, 2026, gold rose 3.3%, silver rose 11.65%, and tin rose 7.67%. Some commodities such as styrene fell 2.24% [14][15]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Equity Market**: Policy expectations and additional liquidity provide upward support [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Neutral overall, with better short - term opportunities but limited odds [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is a long - term standard allocation, and silver is on hold [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Promising, and investors can buy on dips after the market squeezes out the crowded trading bubble [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Volatile [2]. - **Crude Oil**: May rise due to geopolitical support, but with high uncertainty, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. 3.3 Short - term Market Judgments - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, stock index options are oscillating, and treasury bond futures are oscillating [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are both oscillating [6]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most products such as steel, iron ore, and coke are oscillating [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are oscillating, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most products are oscillating [7]. - **Agriculture**: Most products are oscillating, with some showing a slightly weaker trend [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong. The core logic is that the marginal improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals provides solid support, and the geopolitical risks are rising [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Trend - For crude oil 2604, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is strong. The reference view is a strong operation [1]. Driving Logic - The marginal improvement of supply - demand fundamentals offers solid support. OPEC+ major oil - producing countries will continue to suspend production increases in March 2026, maintaining the production level of December 2025, which eases concerns about oversupply. The US winter storm affects crude oil production, with last week's crude oil inventory decreasing by 3.5 million barrels and Cushing's inventory dropping by 743,000 barrels. The geopolitical risks are rising due to the large differences between the US and Iran, which boosts the upward trend of domestic crude oil futures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission is proposing a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude oil to further weaken Russia's energy revenue and complicate its ability to find buyers for oil [1][3] Group 1: Sanctions Overview - The new sanctions plan includes adding 43 additional vessels to the "shadow fleet" list, bringing the total number of sanctioned vessels to 640 [3] - The EU aims to further restrict Russia's access to tankers for the "shadow fleet" and impose broad bans on services related to LNG transport and icebreaker maintenance to limit its natural gas export projects [3] - The sanctions also target the Russian financial system by proposing to sanction 20 regional banks and implement measures against cryptocurrency transactions to prevent evasion of sanctions [3] Group 2: Trade Restrictions - The EU plans to impose new export restrictions on goods and services to Russia, including rubber, tractors, and cybersecurity services, with a total value exceeding €360 million [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - According to the European Commission President, Russia's oil and gas revenue is projected to decline by 24% by 2025, reaching the lowest level since 2020 [3] - The revenue for January 2026 is expected to be the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 [3] - The proposed sanctions are expected to intensify pressure on the Russian economy and impact the global energy trade and shipping markets [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In January, the US manufacturing and services PMI exceeded expectations, indicating overall robust growth overseas [1] - In contrast, China's manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction territory, with both supply and demand components weakening compared to seasonal levels [1][10] - The price index has risen further, reflecting a rapid increase in upstream raw material prices, which is expected to suppress manufacturing supply and demand in the short term [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - Market risk appetite has declined, leading to weaker performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while bonds saw a slight increase [1][11] - The bond market experienced volatility, with the long end performing stronger due to a rebound logic and hedging demand, despite overall bond market gains falling short of expectations [1][10] - In the equity market, there is a potential for stabilization in risk appetite as volatility is digested, with a focus on high-yield assets and long-duration assets for value allocation [1][11] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The A-share market sentiment has weakened due to fluctuations in overseas markets, but there is potential for recovery in cyclical sectors and consumption as selling pressure from state-owned entities eases [11] - Small-cap and growth sectors may present good opportunities, with improved cost-effectiveness in growth stocks and a favorable calendar effect for small-cap stocks post-Spring Festival [11][12] - The Hong Kong market is currently in a phase of benefiting from liquidity, but its fundamentals remain weak, with the improvement of price levels by 2026 being crucial [12] Group 4: Commodity Insights - Recent geopolitical tensions have driven up gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand, although a subsequent drop occurred due to overheating in trading and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve [3][12] - Oil prices have been influenced by threats against Iran and cold weather, but significant improvements in the oil supply-demand fundamentals are still under observation [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - **Macro - situation**: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - **Commodity views**: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - **Eurozone**: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - **Geopolitical**: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - **Precious metals**: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - **"Happy Shopping for Spring Festival"**: The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - **2026 Credit Work Conference**: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - **Policy - end**: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production end**: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - **Demand end**: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - **Price trends**: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].

Group 1 - International precious metal prices rebounded, with gold futures and spot prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also returned to $80 per ounce, with significant daily increases in both gold and silver futures [1] - Factors supporting the rebound include a weaker dollar and investors buying on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices increased nearly 5% over the past week, influenced by signs of a slowing U.S. labor market and rising market risk aversion [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 points for the first time, driven by a rebound in some tech stocks [2] - Oil prices declined due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential disruptions to oil supply [2] Group 3 - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks continues, with a focus on software and data analysis companies amid concerns over AI technology replacing traditional services [2] - Major companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald's are set to release their latest earnings as the earnings season approaches its conclusion [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a dramatic crash on January 29, 2026, with spot gold prices plummeting by $440 in just one hour, marking a single-day decline of over 12%, the largest in 40 years [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The crash was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, known for his "hawkish" stance on inflation, leading to a stronger dollar that suppressed gold prices [3] - Prior to the crash, gold had risen over 30% and silver over 60% since the beginning of 2026, indicating a buildup of market risk due to concentrated speculative trading and high leverage [3] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) raised margin requirements, forcing high-leverage traders to add funds, which triggered a cascade of forced liquidations and automated sell-offs, exacerbating the price drop [3] Group 2: Global Market Impact - The crash had a ripple effect on global markets, with the A-share precious metals sector collapsing, and commodities like crude oil and copper also experiencing significant declines [5] - Bitcoin also fell over 4% in response to the turmoil, highlighting a cross-market liquidity crisis as investors sold off other assets to cover losses in precious metals [5] - There is a divergence in opinions among Wall Street institutions regarding the crash, with some viewing it as a technical adjustment while others warn of further declines in gold prices [5] Group 3: Fund Management Responses - Following the crash, several fund companies implemented risk control measures, including suspending trading or limiting purchases to prevent excessive premiums from triggering further sell-offs [7] - Despite these measures, market volatility continued, with gold prices dropping to $4,470, a decline of over $1,100 from historical highs [7] - Experts noted a structural change in the market, with gold shifting from a "safe-haven asset" to a "high-volatility speculative product," influenced by high levels of quantitative trading and leverage [7]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing extreme volatility, indicating a potential structural shift in its driving logic and volatility paradigm [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In January 2026, precious metals surged nearly 50%, with silver reaching historical highs, igniting market enthusiasm [1]. - However, a dramatic drop occurred at the end of January, with Comex silver prices plummeting over 30%, causing significant turmoil in domestic markets [1]. - Traditional price ratios like gold-silver, gold-copper, and gold-oil have shown erratic behavior, suggesting a breakdown in their historical signaling capabilities [1][3]. Group 2: Traditional Analysis Framework Failure - The gold-copper ratio, typically indicating economic health, has risen to historical highs without corresponding signs of economic recession, signaling potential underlying issues [3]. - The gold-silver ratio is converging to a near-decade low, which traditionally suggests increased risk appetite, but current conditions indicate a more complex narrative [3]. - The gold-oil ratio is at extreme levels, reflecting divergent supply-demand stories for these commodities, further complicating traditional analysis [4]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Market Drivers - The traditional pricing logic based on total demand and monetary cycles is being replaced by new structural forces [5]. - Gold is transitioning from a "rate indicator" to a "credit anchor," influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases and concerns over dollar credit [6][7]. - Silver's demand is bolstered by the global expansion of the photovoltaic industry, while copper is driven by new energy and technology sectors [8][9]. Group 4: Silver as a Market Indicator - Silver has emerged as a key player in the commodity market, reflecting both industrial demand and speculative trading [10]. - The "virtual-to-physical ratio" for silver has reached historical lows, indicating extreme speculation and potential "short squeeze" risks [10]. - Silver's dual nature makes it a sensitive barometer for market liquidity and risk sentiment, amplifying both bullish and bearish trends [11][12]. Group 5: Market Narratives and Trading Mechanisms - The market is increasingly driven by compelling narratives that spread rapidly through modern communication channels, influencing investor behavior [13][14]. - Programmatic trading and leverage have become significant amplifiers of market movements, leading to rapid price changes in response to emerging stories [15][16]. - New capital from other sectors, such as cryptocurrencies, is entering the commodity market, further intensifying volatility [17]. Group 6: Future Outlook - High volatility is expected to persist in the commodity market, necessitating a shift in observation frameworks and expectations [18]. - Monitoring silver's performance will be crucial for gauging overall market sentiment and risk appetite [18]. - A potential signal for a healthy market rally could be a simultaneous decline in the gold-silver and gold-oil ratios, indicating a return to economic growth narratives [19].