Group 1 - The market outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with a shift from valuation-driven growth to a dual driver of "earnings + valuation," leading to improved overall performance of listed companies and increased structural highlights [1][2] - The investment environment is expected to strengthen due to improved global liquidity and the acceleration of AI trends, providing a solid foundation for the market [2] - A-shares are projected to see significant earnings growth in 2026, with EPS for major indices expected to increase substantially, although the pace of valuation improvement may slow down [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is frequently highlighted as a key investment theme, with AI applications anticipated to be a major focus in 2026 [3][4] - The investment logic is shifting from infrastructure to application, as AI's commercial viability in various sectors becomes clearer, creating new investment opportunities [3] - The market is expected to exhibit a "leader concentration" and "fundamental-driven" structural characteristics, with a focus on companies that demonstrate real and sustainable performance [4]

Group 1 - The Chinese government is implementing a series of policies to boost consumption and stabilize investment ahead of 2026, including a significant funding allocation for consumer goods replacement programs [1][2] - A total of approximately 295 billion yuan has been allocated for early-stage construction projects and central budget investments to facilitate the transition between 2025 and 2026 [2][3] - Major infrastructure projects have been approved, including new airports and water resource projects, with total investments exceeding 400 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the modern infrastructure system [2][3] Group 2 - The National Venture Capital Guiding Fund has been launched with an initial investment of 100 billion yuan, expected to attract over one trillion yuan in total investment, focusing on sectors like integrated circuits and quantum technology [4] - The domestic chip industry is rapidly adapting to various applications, with significant growth potential in AI computing power chips, supported by advancements in cluster interconnection technologies [5] - The low-altitude economy is expanding, with the number of agricultural drones exceeding 300,000 and significant growth in their application across various sectors, indicating a promising investment outlook [6]

Economic Growth - Serbia's GDP is projected to grow at a real rate of 2% in 2025 [1] - Most service and industrial activities have shown growth, with retail growing by 4.2%, transportation by 4.7%, and the restaurant sector by 1.5% [1] Sector Performance - Industrial production value increased by 1.0%, with mining up by 4.4% and manufacturing by 1.2% [1] - The construction sector experienced a decline of 8.4% [1] - The energy sector faced a decrease of 2% due to drought affecting hydroelectric reserves [1] - Agriculture saw a slight decline of 0.3% due to adverse weather conditions [1] Inflation and Labor Market - The average inflation rate for 2025 is expected to be 3.8%, with December's inflation rate at 2.8%, aligning with the central bank's target of 3%±1.5% [1] - The labor market remains strong, with nominal wages increasing by 11.2% and real wages by 7.1% [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 8.2% in the third quarter [1] Trade Performance - Despite weak external demand, Serbia's exports are estimated to grow by 8% in 2025, primarily driven by the automotive sector [1] - Imports are projected to rise by 7.3%, attributed to ongoing imports of raw materials and equipment, as well as increased consumer goods imports due to rising disposable incomes [1]

2026年1月1日，全球金融界迎来历史性一刻——95岁的"股神"沃伦·巴菲特正式卸任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官，结束长达60年的掌舵生涯。这位缔造 了5.5万倍投资奇迹的传奇人物，并未选择悄然退场，而是在退休之际以一场 累计超600亿美元的慈善壮举，为自己的财富人生写下最深刻的注脚。 潮水终将退去，但灯塔长明。 在市场狂热追逐AI、加密货币之际，他始终坚守"不懂不投"；当别人贪婪时他恐惧，别人恐惧时他重仓——2008年抄底比亚迪、2020年逆势买入日本商社， 皆成经典。而近年他持续囤积现金、减持科技股，被解读为对"资产泡沫"的无声警告。正如他所言：" 预测下雨不算什么，建造方舟才是关键。" 如今，方舟已稳，船长登岸。 一个靠复利滚出万亿帝国的时代正在缓缓落幕，但巴菲特留下的，远不止一张收益曲线——那是对理性、耐心与人性的深刻洞察，是对"财富应回馈社会"的 坚定信念。 当全球富豪仍在争论如何传承家产，巴菲特却用一生证明： 真正的遗产，不是留给子女多少钱，而是为世界留下多少光。 从2006年起，巴菲特便立下"裸捐"誓言：将99%以上的个人财富回馈社会。如今，他不仅兑现承诺，更在退休前加码——向盖茨基金会及家族 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in 2025 shows a clear divergence, with precious metals leading the way while the energy sector faces pressure, particularly highlighted by the significant rise in gold prices which have reached over 50 historical highs [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices have outperformed major US stock indices and the US dollar index, driven by factors such as central bank purchases, a favorable environment of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, renewed currency devaluation trades, and inflows into ETFs [1] - Silver has also seen remarkable performance, with COMEX silver futures increasing more than twice the rate of gold in 2025 [1] Group 2: Energy Sector - The energy sector, particularly crude oil prices, has been under pressure, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures experiencing declines nearing 20% [1]

"两新"政策把钱花在"刀刃"上 新一年中国经济重点任务清单上，扩大内需仍居前列。其中，优化实施"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新），被 视为进一步激活需求的重要抓手。 岁序更替之际，市场高度关注中国经济政策如何衔接。抓住这一关键时间窗口，近期各方面靠前发力，以"真金白银"传递 政策确定性。 2026年提前批"两重"建设（国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设）项目清单和中央预算内投资计划已于2025年底提 前下达，共计约2950亿元，各类资金拨付和使用节奏将加快。 国家发改委近期还批复或核准多个重大基础设施项目，包括广州新机场、新建湛江至海口跨海轮渡及相关线路工程等交通 设施，辽宁省辽东半岛水资源配置工程、云南省丽江市南瓜坪水库工程等水利设施，浙江特高压交流环网工程、四川大渡 河丹巴水电站等能源设施，以及怀柔、崖州湾实验室重大科研平台等科研设施，总投资超过4000亿元。 备受关注的国家创业投资引导基金亦于2025年12月26日正式启动运行，由超长期特别国债出资1000亿元，并采取"子基金 +直投"方式，吸引地方和社会资本共同出资，预计将形成超万亿元投资规模。 据介绍，引导基金将聚焦原创性、颠覆性技术创新 ...

2025年，大宗商品市场走势明显分化：贵金属领跑，能源板块承压。以黄金为例，金价创下了50多个历 史新高，跑赢了美国的主要股指和美元指数。背后的推动因素包括各国央行的购买、美联储降息的大环 境、货币贬值交易的重燃 、以及ETF资金的涌入等等。不容忽视的还有白银，2025年COMEX白银期货 的涨幅是黄金的两倍还多。而大宗商品板块，原油价格持续疲软。WTI和布伦特原油期货下挫的幅度均 逼近20%。 （央视财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of China's economic policy for 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with a significant emphasis on optimizing the implementation of "two new" policies (large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement) to stimulate demand [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice regarding the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies, optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms [1] - A total of 62.5 billion RMB in special bonds will be allocated in advance to support the consumer goods replacement program, indicating a proactive policy approach [1] Group 2 - The early release of the 2026 "two重" construction project list and central budget investment plan amounts to approximately 295 billion RMB, with an accelerated pace of fund allocation and usage [2] - The NDRC has approved several major infrastructure projects, including the Guangzhou New Airport and the Sichuan Dadu River Danba Hydropower Station, with total investments exceeding 400 billion RMB [2] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially started operations, with an initial investment of 100 billion RMB from special bonds, aiming to attract local and social capital for a total investment scale exceeding 1 trillion RMB [2] Group 3 - The revised "Encouragement Directory" now includes 1,679 entries, an increase of 205 from the 2022 version, promoting foreign investment in advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors [3] - The expansion of the "Encouragement Directory" effectively addresses the concerns of foreign enterprises and optimizes the directional guidance for foreign investment [3] - Recent policy coordination is expected to strengthen the foundation for economic recovery, with a focus on nurturing new productive forces and promoting long-term development [3]

在巴菲特任内的最后一个交易日，伯克希尔A类股微跌0.1%，收于754,800美元；B类股下跌0.2%，收于 502.65美元，为这一非凡时代画上了平静的句点。 在明确的管理分工下，副董事长Ajit Jain将继续日常监管保险业务；阿贝尔的职责将聚焦于BNSF铁路、 制造业及能源业务的监督。此外，原由阿贝尔负责的消费品、服务与零售业务，将交由豪华飞机部门 NetJets的首席执行官Adam Johnson直接管理。这一架构旨在确保领导层平稳交接与业务专注运营。 投资组合接管悬而未决 伯克希尔·哈撒韦尚未正式公布其价值2832亿美元（截至9月30日）的股票投资组合将由谁主导管理。该 组合包含苹果、美国运通等核心持仓。 此前市场预期，长期协助管理投资组合的Todd Combs与Ted Weschler,可能是接班人。然而，Todd Combs 已于本月离职并加入摩根大通，使得继任安排出现变数。巴菲特在2024年5月曾公开表示，继任首席执 行官格雷格·阿贝尔有能力胜任此项工作，这为投资权的归属提供了关键线索。 周三，沃伦·巴菲特结束了其长达六十年的伯克希尔·哈撒韦首席执行官生涯，这位定义了一个时代的传 奇投资者将于周 ...

朋友们，我是帮主郑重。就在全球为新年钟声欢呼时，全球大宗商品市场，却用一份极度"分裂"的成绩 单，为2025年画上了句号。如果你只看一个品种，你会对市场产生完全相反的判断，这恰恰是当下全球 经济复杂性的真实镜像。 我们来看看这幅"分裂"的图景。 所以，我的核心观点是：2025年大宗商品市场，完美演绎了一场"宏观预期"与"微观现实"、"长期叙 事"与"短期流动性"的激烈拉锯战。 铜，交易的是未来的绿色梦想；油，困在当下的过剩泥潭；而黄 金，则在避险的"神坛"与投机的"赌桌"之间反复横跳。它们走势的背离，正是全球经济与政策处在复杂 十字路口的直观体现。 对于已经到来的2026年，作为中长线投资者，我们的策略也需要因"品"而异，更加精细化： 对于铜，长期的电气化故事依然牢固，但短期内42%的涨幅已经透支了大量乐观预期。策略上，绝不在 狂热时追高，而应耐心等待市场情绪降温后的回调机会，再考虑分批布局，将其作为对抗通胀和能源转 型的长期配置选项。 一边，是"铜博士"的史诗级狂飙。 伦敦期铜在2025年全年暴涨42%，创下了自2009年金融危机复苏以来 最大的年度涨幅。这绝不是简单的炒作，其背后是电气化时代对铜这种"工业 ...