Group 1 - Finnish Prime Minister Orpo's visit to China included 20 Finnish companies, showcasing their commitment to the Chinese market and long-term cooperation with Chinese partners [1] - During the visit, 11 business cooperation agreements and 6 government memorandums were signed, covering various fields such as trade, technology, and energy [1] - The direct contract amount of the 11 business agreements reached tens of millions of euros, indicating strong bilateral business engagement [1] Group 2 - Orpo emphasized that China is a significant trade partner for Finland, with Finnish companies valuing the potential of the Chinese market [2] - The China-Finland Innovation Enterprise Cooperation Committee, established in 2017, has become an important platform for promoting business exchanges and economic cooperation [2] - Finnish companies are keen on collaboration in green low-carbon, circular economy, and industrial digitalization sectors, aiming to convert exchange results into concrete projects [2] Group 3 - The Finnish side supports free trade and fair competition, expressing hope for increased mutual trust and reduced trade barriers between Europe and China [2] - According to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, by 2025, the bilateral trade volume between China and Finland is expected to exceed $8 billion, with a mutual investment stock of over $23 billion [2] - The delegation led by Orpo included companies from Finland's competitive sectors such as machinery, forestry, innovation, clean energy, and food [2] Group 4 - The issue of Greenland was mentioned during the visit, but Finland's position is that Greenland belongs to Denmark, and its future should be decided by the people of Greenland and Denmark [3] - The importance of Arctic security is increasing, with climate change leading to significant changes in the Arctic region, making commercial navigation through the Arctic route more feasible [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the commodity market driven by a new Monroe Doctrine centered around the "Trump Doctrine," which emphasizes the U.S. prioritizing the Western Hemisphere for geopolitical and resource security [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Strategy - The U.S. is expected to shift its foreign and security policy direction by early 2026, formally incorporating the "Trump Doctrine" into its National Security Strategy [1]. - This new approach aims to establish a controllable pricing base for resources, shipping routes, and supply chains, integrating them into national security and military deterrence frameworks [1][4]. - The U.S. is likely to adopt a more aggressive stance in securing resources, as evidenced by recent actions regarding Venezuela's oil assets and Greenland's mineral rights [4]. Group 2: Commodity Pricing Changes - Commodity pricing, particularly for copper, lithium, rare earths, energy, and precious metals, is undergoing a fundamental shift, now reflecting "availability, controllability, and political reliability" rather than just marginal supply and demand [2]. - A new commodity cycle characterized by a "security premium" is emerging, indicating that resources are increasingly viewed as geopolitical assets rather than mere commodities [3][25]. Group 3: Regional Political Dynamics - The U.S. strategic focus on the Western Hemisphere coincides with a significant political shift in Latin America, where there is a noticeable rightward movement in the political spectrum [5]. - The political transitions in countries like Argentina and Chile are expected to reduce resistance to U.S. initiatives aimed at enhancing security, trade, and supply chain cooperation [5][6]. Group 4: Resource and Economic Dimensions - The U.S. is highly dependent on imports for critical minerals, with over half of its consumption of 46 minerals reliant on foreign sources, including complete dependence on imports for 15 of them [10]. - The U.S. is attempting to reverse the structural changes in trade and investment in Latin America, where China has become a dominant trade partner in key sectors [6][9]. Group 5: Strategic Resource Management - The U.S. is reclassifying key minerals and energy assets as strategic facilities, integrating them into national security considerations [7]. - Recent trade agreements with countries like Argentina and Ecuador reflect a shift towards a political and security-driven market allocation of Latin American resources [8][9]. Group 6: Pricing Logic and Market Dynamics - The pricing logic for strategic resources is expected to undergo structural changes as they are formally integrated into national security frameworks [16]. - Key minerals are entering a phase dominated by "geopolitical pricing," characterized by heightened sensitivity to geopolitical news and limited price correction space [17][21]. - Precious metals are becoming not only safe-haven assets but also tools for pricing policy uncertainty, with expectations of a bullish trend in the first half of 2026 [18][25].

29日周四，大宗商品创纪录涨势在美元疲软和地缘政治紧张局势升温中获得新动能，黄金、铜和白银齐刷历史新高。所有以美元计价的大宗资产 都受益于美元的持续下跌，而美联储维持利率不变的决定以及主席鲍威尔对美国经济前景的乐观表态，进一步塑造了市场对货币政策路径的预 期。 美联储周三维持利率不变，这是自去年7月以来首次按兵不动。鲍威尔在会后表示，美国经济前景出现"明显改善"。他的任期将于6月结束，此后 特朗普总统可能更有能力推进降息主张。财政部长贝森特则重申强美元政策，并表示美国未干预汇市支持日元。 ，美国有线电视新闻网28日报道，美国总统特朗普"正考虑对伊朗发动新的重大打击"。布伦特原油攀升至去年9月以来最高水平。黄金飙升2.5%至 每盎司5555美元，使本月涨幅扩大至约28%。伦敦金属交易所铜价跳涨5%至每吨13967美元的历史新高，今年累计上涨12%。白银在2025年暴涨 148%后，今年涨幅已扩大至65%。 星展唯高达市场（Vantage Markets）分析师Hebe Chen表示："全球市场明显缺乏信心进行交易。围绕伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势升级以及美元波动 加剧了宏观风险尚未解决的感觉，促使投资者保持谨慎的观望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The prices of the upstream sectors in the chemical and agricultural industries are continuously rising, while the mid - stream and downstream sectors show different trends. There are also important policy releases and event warnings in the production and service industries [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Eight departments jointly issued the "Special Action Implementation Plan for 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'" to promote AI in the manufacturing process. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration issued a snow disaster warning for facilities agriculture and animal husbandry in some regions from January 29 - 31 [1]. - **Service Industry**: Five departments in Shenzhen issued a three - year plan (2026 - 2028) to optimize the consumption environment, aiming to promote home consumption, improve the smart home industry ecosystem, and encourage the integration of home products with AI [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - **Chemical**: The prices of PTA and polyethylene are continuously rising [2]. - **Agriculture**: The prices of eggs and palm oil are rising [2]. - **Energy**: The international crude oil price has been increased [2]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [3]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants has decreased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt has declined [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3.3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On January 28, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork showed year - on - year increases of 0.32%, 4.28%, 4.26%, 0.35%, and 0.75% respectively [40]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel had year - on - year increases of 1.40%, 4.33%, 2.29%, and 0.31% respectively, while one of the aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.66% [40]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of rebar, iron ore, and wire rod had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, 0.41%, and - 0.87% respectively [40]. - **Non - metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of glass, natural rubber, and the China Plastic City price index had year - on - year increases of 1.56%, 3.42%, and 0.83% respectively [40]. - **Energy**: On January 28, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal had year - on - year changes of 3.36%, 2.57%, 2.16%, and - 0.25% respectively [40]. - **Chemical**: On January 28, the spot prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, and soda ash had year - on - year changes of 4.10%, 3.70%, - 0.14%, and 0.00% respectively [40]. - **Real Estate**: On January 28, the cement price index, building materials composite index, and concrete price index had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, - 0.32%, and 0.00% respectively [40].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 29 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：承接进一步加强 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：增量信息依旧有限 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应扰动增加 | 美豆走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘价格下调，国内价格强势 6 | | | 油脂板块：原油带动油脂继续上涨 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 价格下行增加 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 11 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：美联储稍显鹰派 但金银不改强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：联储议息会 ...

格隆汇1月29日｜在明晟公司（MSCI）对印尼上市公司价值提出根本性质疑后，印尼多位顶级富豪的财 富在周三单日缩水逾110亿美元。损失最惨重的是印尼富豪彭云鹏（Prajogo Pangestu），其名下能源与 矿业公司股价大跌，导致其净资产单日蒸发约50亿美元。彭博亿万富豪指数显示，他目前的净资产约为 350亿美元，今年以来已累计缩水近110亿美元。此番抛售是对MSCI一份报告的回应。该报告质疑了印 尼的股东报告规则，称投资者认为这导致了不透明的所有权结构，可能引发不当交易。MSCI表示将暂 停部分预期的指数调整，并警告称如果问题在5月前得不到解决，可能带来更多后果。"MSCI的冻结措 施是一个警告信号，"新加坡马来亚银行证券主要经纪交易主管塔雷克·霍查尼表示。如果印尼监管机构 能展现出进展，"事态将迅速缓和。否则，风险溢价将持续存在。" ...

人民日报记者 李心萍 1月28日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，国务院国资委公布央企2025年成绩单—— 2025年，中央企业实现利润总额2.5万亿元，完成固定资产投资5.1万亿元，上交税费2.5万亿元。截 至2025年底，中央企业资产总额突破95万亿元。 "2025年中央企业研发投入1.1万亿元，新增22位两院院士、创历史最好水平，23个创新联合体新吸 纳超过100家创新主体参与攻关。"庞骁刚说。 高投入，带来高产出。从"天问二号"、首艘电磁弹射型航母到"天权""钢铁脊梁号"，中央企业重大 创新成果竞相涌现。2025年，央企牵头或参与全部22个国家重大科技专项，攻克领跑技术121项。 中央企业运行呈现哪些新变化？2026年有哪些发力点？国务院国资委有关负责同志进行了介绍。 增强规模实力 "十四五"时期央企科技人才数量增加近50% "中央企业加快推进高质量发展，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，国务院国资委副主任庞骁刚 总结央企"十四五"时期的发展成效。 规模增大，"十四五"时期中央企业资产总额连续跨上70万亿元、80万亿元、90万亿元台阶，年均增 速达6.9%；实现增加值51.3万亿元，比"十三五"时期增长4 ...

专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-29 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 202 ...

归母净利润8.4亿美元，同比-61%、环比-39%。 值得注意的是，公司综合毛利率同比提升3.8pct至20.1%，其中汽车业务毛利率20.4%，能源业务毛利率28.6%，显 示业务结构优化对冲了销量下滑影响。 【申万汽车】特斯拉25Q4财报核心要点，继续关注 业绩概览：交付承压，#盈利质量改善 特斯拉25Q4交付量41.8万辆，同比/环比均下降16%；营业总收入249亿美元，同比-3%、环比-11%。 归母净利润8.4亿美元，同比-61%、环比-39%。 值得注意的是，公司综合毛利率同比提升3.8pct至20.1%，其中汽车业务毛利率20.4%，能源业务毛利率28.6%，显 示业务 【申万汽车】特斯拉25Q4财报核心要点，继续关注 业绩概览：交付承压，#盈利质量改善 特斯拉25Q4交付量41.8万辆，同比/环比均下降16%；营业总收入249亿美元，同比-3%、环比-11%。 Robotaxi业务在奥斯汀开始有限度移除安全员运营，旧金山湾区维持安全员配置，计划26H1扩展至达拉斯、休斯 顿、菲尼克斯等七大城市。 #AI与机器人：资本开支重点倾斜 Optimus机器人产业化提速，V3版本预计26Q1发布，最终规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its spring rally from late December 2025, with a focus on large-cap stocks before the Lunar New Year and better performance in growth sectors supported by policy directions [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The performance expectations for Hong Kong stocks have significantly adjusted, with a slowdown in the downward revision of earnings forecasts since late December 2025 [1] - The average return of the Hang Seng Index during the spring rally over the past eleven years is 2.4%, with a weekly win rate of 70.8%, particularly strong in 2019, 2021, and 2023, averaging a 10.6% increase [2] - The upcoming earnings reports for Hong Kong stocks are expected to be concentrated from late March to early April, indicating a period of performance vacuum [1][2] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Short-term investment focus should be on three main lines: 1) "14th Five-Year Plan" policy directions including biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, and 6G; 2) food delivery platforms and real estate benefiting from policy-driven expectations; 3) non-bank financials benefiting from the spring rally [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide long-term investment opportunities, with strategic emerging industries like new energy, new materials, and quantum technology likely to receive policy support [3] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The liquidity outlook for Hong Kong stocks is expected to improve as the market approaches the next peak of stock unlocks, with significant reductions in unlock amounts in January and February 2026 [1] - Historical data shows that net inflows from southbound trading in January and February account for an average of 19.3% and 27.9% of the annual total, respectively [2]