欧元区政府债券收益率在假日交投清淡中小幅上扬，欧元汇率微跌。市场静候将于格林威治时间19：00 公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以期获取2026年美国降息时机与幅度的线索。受美元走强拖累，欧元下跌 0.15%至1.1775美元。 欧元区债券收益率回升，部分收复前日跌幅。西班牙数据显示12月调和通胀年率仅从11月的3.2%小幅 放缓至3.0%，助推债市走势。德国10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.853%，西班牙同期国债收益率 上升3.3个基点至3.283%。 欧元区债券收益率回升，部分收复前日跌幅。西班牙数据显示12月调和通胀年率仅从11月的3.2%小幅 放缓至3.0%，助推债市走势。德国10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.853%，西班牙同期国债收益率 上升3.3个基点至3.283%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 欧元区政府债券收益率在假日交投清淡中小幅上扬，欧元汇率微跌。市场静候将于格林威治时间19：00 公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以期获取2026年美国降息时机与幅度的线索。受美元走强拖累，欧元下跌 0.15%至1.1775美元。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has slightly decreased as investors are awaiting economic data and assessing the market ahead of the New Year [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped by 2 basis points to 4.108% [1] - The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last seen more than 1 basis point lower at 3.442% [1] - Yields and prices move in opposite directions, with one basis point equating to 0.01% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market ended weakly on the last trading day of 2025, with government bond futures declining across the board and interbank bond yields rising by approximately 1 basis point. The liquidity situation is expected to improve after the year-end, with a focus on economic performance in early 2026 and potential inflation data around the Spring Festival. The monetary policy is likely to remain neutral, while issues regarding demand for long-term and ultra-long-term bonds need to be addressed, but yield levels, spreads, and term spreads are expected to remain stable [1]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.35% at 111.41, the 10-year main contract down 0.07% at 107.86, the 5-year main contract down 0.04% at 105.76, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% at 102.454 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 2.2775%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.15 basis points to 1.9505%, and the 7-year government bond yield up by 1.05 basis points to 1.738% [2]. Liquidity and Funding - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 5288 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 5028 billion yuan for the day after accounting for maturing reverse repos [4]. - Short-term Shibor rates rose across the board, with the overnight rate up by 8.0 basis points to 1.327%, the 7-day rate up by 36.7 basis points to 1.956%, the 14-day rate up by 8.2 basis points to 1.951%, and the 1-month rate up by 0.3 basis points to 1.588% [4]. Economic Indicators - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for December was 50.1%, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, all showing an increase from the previous month and indicating an overall recovery in economic sentiment [5]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates a moderate growth in government bond supply in 2026, with concentrated net supply pressure expected in the second quarter. New general bond issuance is expected to maintain a slow pace, while new special bond issuance may peak towards the end of the second quarter [6]. - Huatai Fixed Income notes that the bond market adjustment is primarily driven by trading factors and medium-term supply-demand concerns, with market sentiment appearing fragile. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a "volatile and weak" market [6]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that demand for credit bonds may remain stable, with expectations of continued growth in demand post-year-end due to financial products and the "opening red" period, despite fluctuations in government bond yields [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 was a transformative year for the bond market, with yield trends shifting from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, trading strategies evolving, market scale expanding, and asset correlations changing [3][15]. - In 2026, China's economy will feature "internal improvement, external stability, and structural optimization", with GDP growth target around 5%. Monetary policy will remain "moderately loose", and fiscal policy will be "actively expansionary" [4][5]. - The bond market in 2026 will see a positive supply trend, with institutional behavior showing "stable but changing allocation and contracting and differentiating trading". The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state [7][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Bond Market Review - **Yield Trend**: Yields shifted from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, with a pattern of "rising - falling - rising - fluctuating" for long - term yields and short - term yields anchored around policy rates [15][16]. - **Bond Products**: The bond market became a core financing channel for economic transformation, with a high - stock, fast - expanding, and government - bond - concentrated structure [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Financial institutions' trading strategies shifted from "trend trading" to a "coupon + band" composite strategy, with commercial banks and insurance institutions as the main holders of interest - rate bonds and brokers and overseas institutions increasing market volatility [23]. - **Asset Linkage**: The traditional linkage between treasury bond yields and traditional assets (A - shares, US stocks, gold) was broken, showing "three reversals" [29]. 2. Fundamentals: Internal Improvement, Gradual Progress - **GDP Growth Target**: In 2025, the GDP growth target of 5% was basically achieved, with a "high - then - low" pattern. In 2026, the target may remain around 5% [37][38]. - **Consumption Growth**: In 2025, consumption momentum slowed and there was a clear trend of consumption downgrade. In 2026, consumption will moderately recover, but factors such as policy support, income, and balance - sheet repair will limit the improvement [41][42]. - **Investment Growth**: In 2025, investment growth turned negative, showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, investment is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment as the core driving forces, and the decline in real - estate investment will narrow slightly [44][45][47]. - **Export Growth**: In 2025, exports showed strong resilience. In 2026, export growth is expected to remain stable, supported by factors such as diversified trade markets, upgraded export product structures, and enterprise overseas investment [52][53]. - **Price Movement**: In 2025, prices rebounded at a low level. In 2026, CPI will moderately recover, PPI's decline will narrow, and the GDP deflator is expected to gradually recover but may still be in the negative range [59]. 3. Policy Front: Moderately Loose Monetary Policy, Actively Expansionary Fiscal Policy - **Monetary Policy**: In 2025, monetary policy was moderately loose and operation became more refined. In 2026, it will continue the "moderately loose" tone, focusing on precise measures and cross - cycle balance, with policy tools transforming from quantity - based to price - based [62][63]. - **Fiscal Policy**: In 2025, fiscal policy was significantly expansionary, with a higher deficit rate. In 2026, it will continue the "actively expansionary" main line, with characteristics of "stable total growth, optimized structure, and front - loaded rhythm" [68]. 4. Bond Supply: Scale Expansion and Structural Optimization - **2025**: The supply of interest - rate bonds increased significantly, with government bonds leading the expansion and a front - loaded fiscal leverage rhythm [75]. - **2026**: The bond market supply will be positive, featuring "scale expansion, front - loaded rhythm, investment in new areas, and longer terms", with the government bond scale expected to reach a record high [76]. 5. Institutional Behavior: Stable but Changing Allocation, Contracting and Differentiating Trading - **Allocation Disk**: Commercial banks' bond allocation will increase steadily, with a shift towards the medium - and short - term. Insurance institutions' demand for bond allocation may weaken, and there will be a re - balance between stocks and bonds [84][85]. - **Trading Disk**: The trading disk's allocation of interest - rate bonds will contract overall, with internal differentiation and more cautious strategies [86]. 6. Equity Disturbance: From "Strong Stocks, Weak Bonds" to "Stock - Bond Re - balance" - **2025**: The stock - bond relationship was mainly "strong stocks, weak bonds", with the strength of the equity market suppressing the bond market [95]. - **2026**: The equity market is likely to continue to recover, and the stock - bond relationship will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state, with the squeezing effect on the bond market weakening [99]. 7. Capital Price: Continued Loose Capital, Marginally Increased Volatility - **2025**: Capital prices showed a downward trend with converging volatility, with the central bank guiding the centralization of capital prices and suppressing short - term fluctuations [102]. - **2026**: Capital prices are expected to show a double - feature of "systematically downward centralization and magnified periodic volatility", with the central bank relying on multiple tools to maintain stability [103]. 8. Outlook for Major Asset Trends - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields may show a "quasi - inverted V" pattern, with an expected range of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond yield [109][111]. - **A - shares**: The equity market is likely to show a pattern of "shock - strengthening and structural differentiation", focusing on new - quality productivity [112]. - **US Stocks**: US stocks will continue to rise with technology leading, but the upward slope may slow down, and there is a risk of valuation bubbles [113]. - **US Bonds**: US bond yields will show a downward - centralization and steepening curve, but supply pressure and inflation resilience will limit the downward space [114]. - **Gold**: Gold prices will likely remain high, fluctuating upwards, but the upward momentum may slow down [115].

Group 1 - The bond market in December remained in a volatile state, influenced by institutional behavior and concerns over potential risks in Q1, including government bond issuance and credit expansion impacts on bank credit [2][17] - The supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds is a significant concern, with the issuance of super-long government bonds increasing substantially in recent years, particularly in 2025 [3][21] - The central economic work conference indicated that the fiscal deficit rate may remain at 4% in 2026, with only a slight expansion in government bond supply compared to 2025, despite concerns about the capacity of institutions to absorb large-scale local bond issuances [4][22] Group 2 - A total of 20 regions have announced their Q1 issuance plans, amounting to 1.688 trillion yuan, which is higher than the actual issuance in Q1 2025, indicating a more optimistic outlook for 2026 [4][23] - The anticipated net financing for government bonds in January, February, and March 2026 is estimated at 1.29 trillion, 0.86 trillion, and 1.25 trillion yuan respectively, totaling approximately 3.4 trillion yuan for the quarter, which is lower than the 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [35][32] - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted towards maintaining liquidity support, with a significant probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January, which could alleviate uncertainties regarding bank liabilities [6][60] Group 3 - The market is currently facing uncertainty regarding the impact of new public fund regulations, which aim to reshape the industry ecosystem without causing significant short-term disruptions [9][10] - Despite the ongoing concerns about credit expansion and its effects on bank liabilities, the central bank's recent statements suggest a more cautious approach to credit growth, potentially leading to a more stable liquidity environment [43][57] - The bond market may see opportunities for long-term bonds if extreme market fears do not materialize, with a focus on 3-5 year government bonds and perpetual bonds [10][8]

美国国债市场以及高评级公司债投资者们在2026年可能面临更艰难的环境。一些市场观察人士预测，在美联储可能显 著放缓降息步伐、以及特朗普政府"大而美法案"所驱动的潜在大规模财政刺激举措令美债市场投资前景更趋复杂之 际，2026年的美国债券市场(美债+公司债市场)投资回报可能放缓——债券资金2025年全年可谓经历了一个表现亮眼的 年份。 智通财经APP了解到，这一谨慎的市场共识预测出现在债券持有人度过意外强劲的2025年之后，美联储宽松货币政策 与"不冷不热的"有利"软着陆""经济环境推动美国债市录得自2020年以来的最佳表现。投资者们眼下正在权衡：一个降 息不那么激进的美联储与新的财政政策是否会阻断这种增长动能，从而对美国债市总回报构成强劲挑战。 虽然有投资者预计2026年的美国债券市场环境在一定程度上仍将相似，但包含债券票息与价格波动在内的总投资回 报，可能难以匹配2025年的强劲表现。 市场普遍预计美联储在2026年的降息幅度将小于2025年;截至周一，利率期货交易员们定价2026年约50个基点的宽松预 期，相比之下，2025年美联储已经降息75个基点。此外，美联储官员们对于2026年降息判断可谓分歧巨大， ...

【内容摘要】12月30日，资金面有所收敛，跨年资金成本继续上升；债市情绪有所修复，超长债回暖；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各 期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【个人销售未满2年住房增值税将下调至3%】12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人将购买不足2年的住房 对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。 【2026年"两新"政策出炉，"范围、标准、机制"全面优化】12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政 策的通知》，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。据悉，国家已于近日向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消 费品以旧换新资金计划，满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。2026年"两新"政策主要在支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制三方面进行优化。 【财政部：切实抓好地方政府债务监督，有效抓好财政收入、超长期特别国债等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The net financing amount of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to rise overall compared to 2025, with preliminary forecasts of approximately 7.28 trillion, 7.66 trillion, and 8.04 trillion yuan under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios respectively [1][16]. - The issuance rhythm of replacement bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to remain front - loaded, and the issuance rhythm of new special bonds may be faster than that in 2025 [4][34]. - The net financing amount of local government bonds in January 2026 is expected to be 649.9 billion yuan, with the issuance rhythm likely to be faster year - on - year, and the supply pressure in the second half of January is relatively large [4][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 Local Government Bond Net Supply Estimation - **New Bonds**: The issuance scale mainly depends on the budget deficit ratio determined by the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March each year, the distribution of central and local fiscal deficits, and the new special bond quota. As of the end of 2025, there is still an estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of space between the local government debt limit and the balance. The preliminary forecasts of the new bond issuance scale in 2026 under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios are approximately 5.43 trillion, 5.72 trillion, and 6.00 trillion yuan respectively [2][8][10]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: The quota is arranged as needed. Referring to the 2025 level, the preliminary forecasts of the special refinancing bond issuance scale in 2026 under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios are approximately 2.3 trillion, 2.4 trillion, and 2.5 trillion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Net Repayment of Matured Local Government Bonds**: From 2021 to 2025, the average refinancing ratio of matured local government bonds was about 87.4%. Based on this ratio, the net repayment scale of matured local government bonds in 2026 is estimated to be about 456.1 billion yuan [2][16]. 3.2 How to Anticipate the Rhythm of Local Government Bond Net Supply Early? - **One - week - ahead Forecast**: Relatively accurate local government bond net supply data can be obtained 5 working days before issuance. Provincial financial departments are required to disclose key information such as the issuance scale and term at least 5 working days before the issuance of new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [21]. - **Monthly 21st Forecast**: On the 21st of each month, a preliminary judgment on the next - month's ten - day supply can be made. However, in practice, there are differences in information disclosure timeliness, issuance plan adjustments, and deviations between actual execution and plans. Subsequent forecasts can be dynamically revised by combining information such as national debt supply, local government bond quarterly issuance plans, local government bond limits, and local government bond weekly issuance data [22][23][29]. 3.3 Q1 2026 and January 2026 Local Government Bond Net Supply Forecast - **Policy Review and Outlook**: In Q1 2025, replacement bonds were issued intensively, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was lower than expected. In Q1 2026, it is expected that replacement bonds will maintain a front - loaded issuance trend, and the issuance rhythm of new special bonds may be faster [30][34]. - **Q1 2026 Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast**: As of December 28, 2025, the planned issuance total for Q1 2026 was about 1.75 trillion yuan. Assuming the same ratio as in 2025Q1, the actual issuance in 2026Q1 is expected to be 1.79 trillion yuan, with a corresponding net financing amount of 1.12 trillion yuan. The issuance term in 2026Q1 has no obvious pattern due to a small sample size [35][38]. - **January 2026 Local Government Bond Net Supply Forecast**: The net financing amount of local government bonds in January 2026 is expected to be 649.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 173.8 billion yuan. The supply pressure in the second half of January is relatively large. The issuance rhythm in January 2026 is likely to be faster than in the same period of 2025 [41][43]. - **Summary**: The issuance rhythm of local government bonds in January 2026 is expected to be significantly faster year - on - year. The planned issuance scale in 2026Q1 has decreased significantly year - on - year, but this is mainly due to incomplete disclosure of provincial and municipal issuance plans, so the year - on - year change has limited reference value [48].

中国手里捏着的美国国债，这几个月越来越薄。十月份的数据一出来，总额只剩6887亿美元，比九月少 了118亿。这数字一公布，就把人拉回2008年那场金融大乱，当时全球市场都跟着遭殃。现在重回那个 低点，总让人觉得不是巧合。 日本作为美债的最大海外持有者，十月反而加了107亿，总额冲到1.2万亿美元。看起来像在帮老大哥稳 盘，但东京自己日子也不好过，日元汇率那阵子跌得厉害，得靠增持来平衡。英国也跟进，添了132 亿，持仓升到8779亿。 他们本国财政赤字高悬，还得靠央行放水过日子，这种增持更多是盟友间的默契，不是纯市场行为。这 些举动交织起来，显示美债从全球兜底模式，慢慢转向小圈子支撑。这信号可不妙，对美国来说，赤字 依赖外资宽容，一旦大玩家退场，根基就晃。 中国这些年攒的外汇储备，本来很大一部分都投到美债上，图个稳当。可如今，地缘事儿一堆，美元政 策变幻莫测，北京开始慢慢调整手头资产。这不是一时兴起，而是长远打算，避免把鸡蛋全搁一个篮 子。 美国那边一看这个动静，媒体立马炸锅。彭博社直接发文，说外资持美债十月小幅下滑，中国卖出导致 持仓创低。标题里直戳"外资持美债下滑，中国卖出"，语气里透着股不安。华盛顿的官员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery due to expectations of a loose monetary environment at the end of the year, although volatility remains high and the market lacks a clear direction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market sentiment has improved, supported by a loose funding environment and year-end allocation expectations, providing short-term bullish opportunities for traders [1]. - The current bond market is characterized by significant volatility, influenced heavily by market sentiment and expectations, particularly as institutions face profit-taking pressures at year-end [1]. - The long-end government bond yields have limited upward space, with the key position for the 10-year government bond yield remaining at 1.85% [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy is in a wave-like operation phase, with internal momentum recovery being a slow variable, and the economic data showing a structural characteristic of "strong production, weak domestic demand" [3]. - The economic fundamentals are still in a bottoming phase, with increasing pressure on the demand side in the fourth quarter, leading to a weak short-term entity financing demand [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with interbank liquidity expected to maintain a balanced and loose pattern, alleviating concerns about year-end liquidity [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in the scale of central bank purchases of government bonds, as the total net injection of MLF and reverse repos decreases [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face significant pressure in 2026, with global economic visibility likely to improve, potentially impacting domestic bond markets negatively [5]. - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to exert pressure on the bond market, with a low likelihood of a repeat of the inflationary trends seen in 2006 or 2017 [5]. - The macro environment's continued warming may lead to a preference for equity markets over bonds, with increasing supply of long-end bonds and limited demand from banks and insurance companies [5][6]. Group 5: Policy Framework - The fiscal policy is expected to continue its expansionary stance, emphasizing actual spending and structural improvements, with a projected slight increase in the narrow deficit ratio to 4.2% [6]. - Monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions remain options, with a focus on flexible and efficient implementation [6][7]. - The bond market is likely to exhibit characteristics of "top and bottom" with amplified volatility, particularly in the long-end segment, while the central bank's support for year-end liquidity will bolster the mid-short end of the bond market [7].