Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report maintains an optimistic view of the future of the black sector. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually easing macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term. For specific varieties, each has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as Sino - US negotiations and overseas macro - environment changes [1][4][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (1.772%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 128,819 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.953001 million lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3140 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (1.507%). The registered warehouse receipts were 104,667 tons, a decrease of 2398 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.48273 million lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated strongly. Sino - US relations were moderately eased, and the results of the trade negotiations needed to be focused on. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, the demand improved marginally, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills declined significantly, and the supply - side pressure was reduced. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remained unchanged, but the real demand was still weak in the short term [1]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 786.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.01% (+15.50). The position changed by - 6796 lots to 558,800 lots. The weighted position was 944,200 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.62% [3]. Strategy View - The market sentiment improved, and the iron ore futures rebounded at the technical support level. The overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase, and the recent arrival volume was at a low level. The daily average pig iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The macro - environment had a certain positive impact, and the iron ore price fluctuated [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.52% to close at 5802 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 108 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.40% to close at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures. The prices of both were in the shock range and needed to pay attention to the support level and the direction selection near the trend line [7]. Strategy View - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee had positive statements, but there was no content exceeding market expectations. It was necessary to pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the black sector were worrying due to high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" in steel mills. The report was still not pessimistic about the black sector, and it was more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were likely to follow the black sector's trend [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The weighted position increased by 7556 lots to 435,130 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,500 yuan/ton, up 4.20% (+2195). The weighted position increased by 19,404 lots to 251,023 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis was - 1520 yuan/ton [11][14]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon was slightly up. The supply pressure continued, and the demand support weakened. The cost provided some support, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The polysilicon futures rose due to downstream buying and news rumors. The supply pressure might be alleviated marginally, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the implementation of news and control risks [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1095 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+3). The prices in North China and Central China decreased. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million cases, up 2.3374 million cases (3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 36,011 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 73,350 lots. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+17). The price in Shahe increased. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (3.64%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10,679 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 11,314 lots [17][19]. Strategy View - The glass market mainly traded low - price goods, and the demand recovery was slow. The raw material soda ash price provided support, and the glass price was expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash supply was stable, the cost pressure increased, and the downstream demand was mainly low - price rigid demand. The soda ash price was expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term, and it was necessary to pay attention to the start - up of equipment and downstream procurement [18][20].

Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Industrial silicon supply increase pressures the price, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 remained unchanged. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreased by 10.47%, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 64.29%, and the basis of Xinjiang decreased by 7.76% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 1.32%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50.00%, 2601 - 2602 decreased by 0.00%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 300.00%, and 2603 - 2604 decreased by 20.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78%, Yunnan's production increased by 2.41%, and Sichuan's production decreased by 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 22.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 11.99%, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.47%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 0.58%, Sichuan's increased by 1.00%, social inventory decreased by 0.53%, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.29%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.23% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. After the sharp rise in futures, the discount is repaired, and there is a need to pay attention to the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 325.19%. The average price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased by 0.59%, and the average price of N - type 210R silicon wafers decreased by 2.16% [2]. - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 4.20%. The spread of the current month - the first consecutive contract decreased by 16.92%, the first - the second consecutive contract decreased by 61.90%, the second - the third consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, the third - the fourth consecutive contract increased by 140.00%, the fourth - the fifth consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, and the fifth - the sixth consecutive contract increased by 140.00% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production increased by 2.65%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.84% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, imports increased by 28.46%, exports decreased by 28.16%, and net exports decreased by 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37%, imports decreased by 17.96%, exports remained unchanged, and net exports increased by 1.96%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1.91% [2]. Report on Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level. Although there is import cost support, the market is pessimistic due to expected supply increase and weak demand. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 27, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all decreased. The prices of small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: From October 27 - November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, a week - on - week increase of 33%, and the arrival volume increased by 8.5 million cubic meters to about 53.3 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 19% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory was 284 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average log出库 volume was 6.44 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.12 million cubic meters from the previous week [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on subsequent rebounds. For glass, although the previous decline has priced in the negative factors, and the recent news has boosted the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market and close previous short positions [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, the prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37%, weekly production increased by 3.37%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05%, and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the improvement of the macro - environment and fundamentals has led to a rebound in rubber prices. In the future, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price is expected to run around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of Yunnan Guofu SCRMF, Thai standard mixed rubber, natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna, and raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged. The basis of whole milk decreased by 7.69%, the non - standard price difference decreased by 13.43%, the FOB middle price of cup rubber decreased by 100.00%, the FOB middle price of glue decreased by 100.00%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.47% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.14% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.95%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 1.06%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and in September, tire exports decreased by 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 14.41%, and in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber STR20 in Thailand increased by 1.87%, the production cost of RSS3 increased by 0.50%, the production profit of STR20 decreased by 305.56%, and the production profit of RSS3 increased by 2.83% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07%, natural rubber factory futures inventory in SHFE increased by 6.28%, and the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao bonded warehouse decreased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and will fluctuate later due to the expected reduction in crude steel production despite the lack of substantial improvement in downstream consumption [3]. - The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. - Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. - Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of various steel contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up from 3046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also generally increased slightly [4][9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term and then fluctuate due to the expected reduction in crude steel production and the lack of improvement in downstream consumption [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the 01 contract closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton. The basis of each contract changed slightly [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The average daily hot - metal output decreased, the 45 - port inventory increased, and the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased [28]. - **Market Outlook**: The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the coking coal and coke basis and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was 204 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed to some extent [40][41]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the basis and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1337 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts also changed [61]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts increased slightly compared to October 24. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [88]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Boyuan Chemical has shown a positive trend with a 2.11% increase on October 27, 2023, reaching a price of 6.28 CNY per share, despite a net outflow of funds from major investors [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Boyuan Chemical's stock price has increased by 18.71% year-to-date, with a 2.78% rise over the last five trading days, 2.61% over the last twenty days, and 4.67% over the last sixty days [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at 23.354 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Boyuan Chemical reported a revenue of 5.916 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 743 million CNY, down 38.57% compared to the previous year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 3.508 billion CNY, with 2.778 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Boyuan Chemical reached 102,400, an increase of 2.71% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 2.82% to 32,418 shares [2] - The fourth largest circulating shareholder is the Southern CSI 500 ETF, holding 38.6719 million shares, which is an increase of 5.2159 million shares from the previous period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may be more cost - effective than shorting [10]. - For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end; otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend with a low cost - performance for operation [10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, easily following the commodity environment. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [13][16]. - For glass, it is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend. For soda ash, the price is expected to maintain a stable and weak trend [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1437 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 81220 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4799 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 182 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is crucial. Future development focuses on high - quality development of real estate and population. Fundamentally, rebar shows a neutral performance with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing. Hot - rolled coils have a slight decline in production, rising demand, and marginal inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level [2]. - The steel mill profitability rate has declined significantly, and the molten iron output has dropped significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve [2]. Iron Ore **Market Information** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.77% (- 6.00), and the positions increased by 4501 lots to 56.56 million lots. The weighted positions were 95.82 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume has rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and FMG's shipments, and a slight increase in non - mainstream countries' shipments. The near - end arrival volume has decreased [5]. - Demand: The average daily molten iron output has dropped below 240,000 tons, affected by weak steel prices, low mill profitability, and environmental protection in Hebei. The contradiction between high molten iron and terminal demand has been realized, and the molten iron output has decreased [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continues to increase, and mill inventory has a slight increase. Fundamentally, the iron ore demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate, putting pressure on prices [5]. - Macroscopically, pay attention to the "15th Five - Year Plan" details and the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, which may improve market sentiment [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron **Market Information** - On October 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.79% at 5772 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 138 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.57% at 5542 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [7][8]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, important meetings have positive statements, but there is no super - expected content. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting. The black sector's fundamentals have concerns about high supply and low demand, and the mill profitability rate has dropped to 47.62%. There may be a "negative feedback" risk in the short term [9]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is more cost - effective to find callback positions to do rebounds. For manganese silicon, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon **Market Information** - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, down 1.55% (- 140). The weighted positions decreased by 11,008 lots to 427,574 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 52,305 yuan/ton, down 1.46% (- 775). The weighted positions decreased by 12,056 lots to 231,619 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 were unchanged, with a basis of 675 yuan/ton [15]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure persists, with increasing weekly output. Demand support is weakening, and there is no obvious improvement in supply and demand. It is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, following the commodity environment [13][14]. - Polysilicon: Supply pressure may be marginally relieved as some capacities may be overhauled. The downstream start - up rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [16]. Glass and Soda Ash **Market Information** - Glass: The main contract closed at 1092 yuan/ton, down 1.44% (- 16). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 233,740,000 cases (+ 3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 9086 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,487 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1229 yuan/ton, down 0.49% (- 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 160,000 tons (+ 3.64%), with a decrease in heavy - soda inventory and an increase in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased 6467 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,937 lots [20]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, downstream procurement has slowed down, and supply has increased. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term. It is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend [19]. - Soda ash: The industry supply remains high, and demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the price is expected to be stable and weak [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.65% higher than the previous week at 1,229 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe increased by 2.61% to 1,180 yuan/ton. Supply remains at a high level, with expected production of 760,000 tons and an operating rate of 87% next week. The overall supply is abundant as the second - phase project of Yuangxing Energy is expected to be put into operation by the end of the year. Downstream demand is average, mainly on a need - to - buy basis, and the current situation is weak with continuous financial pressure. The daily melting volume of float glass remained stable at 161,300 tons, while that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 100 tons to 88,700 tons. As of October 23, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a 0.09% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The main contract of soda ash futures closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 1.65% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 2.61%. The main basis was - 49 yuan/ton, down 16.95% [9]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 2.61% from the previous week [15]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production is at a historical low, with a profit of - 92.40 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 199 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [18]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.94%. The weekly production was 740,600 tons, including 410,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 55.36% [21][23][25]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [26]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [29]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% remaining stable [32]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a 0.09% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [39]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, and other indicators [40]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors The peak maintenance season is approaching this year, and production is expected to decline [5]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level [6]. - The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [8]. - The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [8]. 5. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-27 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃供 给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1180元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1229元/吨，基差为-49元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.21万吨，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 主力基差 利空： 主要逻辑和风险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Long - term Outlook**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the overall improvement in the fundamentals of the black - series is limited, with the main contracts of the black - series fluctuating at low levels. The real - estate data remains weak, glass enterprises' inventories have been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, and the oversupply situation in the soda ash market persists, with both maintaining a weak pattern [67][71] - **Short - term Outlook**: This week, due to the political turmoil in Mongolia affecting coking coal supply, coking coal and coke prices soared, boosting the sentiment of the black - series. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, but the steel price is under pressure. The daily average hot - metal output has fallen below 2.4 million tons, and iron ore prices are fluctuating at low levels. Glass and soda ash continue to operate at low levels, and attention should be paid to the market reaction and fundamental improvement after the important meeting [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3037.0 on October 17 to 3046.0 on October 24, an increase of 9.0 (0.3%). The spot price was 3046.0, and the basis was 0 [3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3204.0 to 3250.0, an increase of 46.0 (1.4%). The spot price was 3290.0, and the basis was 40.0 [3] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract remained at 771.0. The spot price was 797.0, and the basis was 26.0 [3] - **Coke (J2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1676.0 to 1757.5, an increase of 81.5 (4.9%). The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 137.5 [3] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1179.0 to 1248.5, an increase of 69.5 (5.9%). The spot price was 1420.0, and the basis was 171.5 [3] - **Glass (FG601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract fell from 1095.0 to 1092.0, a decrease of 3.0 (- 0.3%). The spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 148.0 [3] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1209.0 to 1229.0, an increase of 20.0 (1.7%). The spot price was 1270.6, and the basis was 41.6 [3] 3.2 Rebar Blast Furnace Profit - On October 23, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Rebar Supply - As of October 24, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons; the rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons [13] 3.4 Rebar Demand - In the week of October 24, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,600 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 105,323 tons [18] 3.5 Rebar Inventory - In the week of October 24, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3748 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 189,300 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [22] 3.6 Iron Ore Supply - In the week of October 17, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.678 million tons [27] 3.7 Iron Ore Inventory - In the week of October 24, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 151.0949 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4762 million tons; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9646 million tons [32] 3.8 Iron Ore Demand - In the week of October 24, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 3.2207 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,500 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 959,000 tons [37] 3.9 Float Glass Supply - In the week of October 24, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, and the operating rate was 76.35%, both remaining unchanged from the previous week [42] 3.10 Float Glass Inventory - In the week of October 24, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.3374 million weight boxes compared with October 17. The available days of in - plant inventory were 28.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [47] 3.11 Float Glass Demand - As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [51] 3.12 Soda Ash Supply - In the week of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740,600 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with the previous week [55] 3.13 Soda Ash Inventory - As of October 24, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [60] 3.14 Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate - As of October 24, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points [64]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].