Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on precious metals, industrial metals, strategic minor metals, and energy metals, with a particular emphasis on their performance in 2025 and outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to perform strongly in 2025 due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar. The bullish trend is anticipated to continue into 2026, driven by central bank purchases and concerns over dollar credibility [3][4][10]. - **Silver**: Exhibits both financial and industrial attributes, with significant upside potential as it transitions from reflecting solely financial attributes to incorporating industrial demand. Companies like Shanjin International and Shengda Resources are recommended for investment [5][11]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Benefited from financial attributes and supply constraints over the past two years. Strong demand is expected to continue from both traditional and emerging sectors. A shift towards recovery in trading is anticipated in the second half of 2026, with high copper prices stimulating production resumption [6][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The investment logic is based on its resource attributes and potential to replace copper in certain applications. A strong performance is expected in 2026, contingent on the pace of China's economic recovery [7][14][15]. Strategic Minor Metals - **Rare Earths and Tungsten**: Supply constraints due to strict Chinese controls are expected to drive prices up. The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China dynamics, will significantly influence the market [3][8][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market outlook is driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage. Despite some challenges in new supply due to policy restrictions, the demand remains robust, suggesting a favorable trading environment [9]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by economic recession pressures and supply constraints. The focus will gradually shift towards demand in 2026 as economic recovery progresses [2]. - The strategic positioning of companies in the precious metals sector, particularly those with low valuations, is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity [4][10]. - The anticipated tightening of supply in the copper market due to unexpected disruptions in major mines is noted, which could lead to a significant price increase in 2026 [15]. - The importance of geopolitical factors and policy changes in shaping the supply dynamics of strategic minor metals is emphasized, particularly in the context of global trade tensions [8][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest of young investors in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by macroeconomic factors and the AI industry revolution. It highlights a shift from traditional savings to more speculative trading behaviors among younger demographics, emphasizing the role of social media and community dynamics in shaping investment decisions [3][11]. Group 1: Young Investors' Behavior - Young investors, like the character Yuanyuan, are actively engaging in gold investments, utilizing strategies to optimize their purchases through discounts and promotions, reflecting a trend of meticulous research and community sharing in investment practices [5][6]. - The concept of "doing homework" in gold trading has emerged as a social currency among young investors, where sharing successful purchase strategies fosters community engagement and knowledge exchange [7][11]. - Data from JD Finance indicates that over 50% of gold investors are from the post-90s generation, with a preference for flexible and lightweight investment options, showcasing a trend towards fragmented financial management [8]. Group 2: Shift to Other Metals - As gold prices stabilize, younger investors are exploring other metals like copper and silver, shifting their mindset from risk-averse savings to trend-based trading, driven by clearer supply-demand data in these markets [9][10]. - The article notes that some young investors, such as Linna, have transitioned from gold to silver investments, influenced by community discussions on market trends and industrial applications of these metals [10][11]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The price of gold has seen significant increases, with a reported rise of over 66% since early 2025, reaching levels not seen in nearly 46 years, which has fueled the interest of young investors [13]. - Analysts express a generally positive outlook for the continuation of the gold market's upward trend, citing concerns over the dollar's credibility and ongoing global monetary expansion as key factors supporting gold's value [14]. - Strategic metals like copper and silver are expected to benefit from the same macroeconomic conditions as gold, with their demand driven by the AI revolution and industrial applications, indicating potential for price increases [15].

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among public funds is that the A-share market in 2026 will transition from "valuation-driven" to "profit-driven," with expectations of a "slow bull" or "oscillating upward" market characterized by gradual improvement in corporate earnings [2][3][4]. Market Outlook - Public funds are generally optimistic about the A-share market in 2026, predicting a shift in market drivers from "valuation repair" in 2025 to "profit-driven" growth, leading to a potential upward trend [1][2]. - The market is expected to experience a gradual upward movement, with corporate earnings recovery being a key factor for stable growth [2][3]. Sector Focus - The technology sector is identified as the core investment theme, with a shift in focus from generalized computing infrastructure to specific applications and cutting-edge technologies [4][5]. - AI is highlighted as a critical mid-level variable influencing market resilience, with expectations for significant returns from AI applications [5][6]. Balanced Investment Strategy - There is a growing emphasis on a balanced investment strategy, moving from a growth-dominant approach in 2025 to a more equitable distribution between growth and value stocks in 2026 [7][8]. - The resource and dividend asset sectors are gaining attention, driven by expectations of a global manufacturing recovery and domestic policy improvements [8]. Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector, previously underperforming, is now viewed positively, with expectations for recovery in consumption growth as supportive policies are implemented [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions and inventory dynamics [1][4]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a general recovery in economic sentiment [1][14]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell below expectations, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [2][15]. - Geopolitical tensions escalated with U.S. military actions in Venezuela, raising security risks in the region [3][16]. - China is tightening regulations on copper and alumina production capacity in its new five-year plan, aiming to curb disorderly investments [4][17]. - CME raised margin requirements for precious metals futures twice within two weeks, impacting silver prices while potentially supporting gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [5][18]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector slightly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [9]. - Industrial metals showed a notable performance, with copper prices rising and inventory imbalances becoming more pronounced [19][22]. - Precious metals faced downward pressure due to margin increases, but geopolitical tensions may drive gold prices higher [31][36]. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on LME reached $12,460.50 per ton, up 2.70% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices were at ¥98,240.00 per ton, down 0.49% [19][22]. - LME aluminum prices increased to $3,021.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥22,925.00 per ton [19][22]. - Zinc prices on LME were $3,127.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥23,275.00 per ton [20][21]. - Inventory levels for copper on LME decreased by 5.98% to 145,325 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 30.11% to 145,342 tons [23]. Strategic Metal Insights - Cobalt prices rose due to supply constraints, with electrolytic cobalt priced at ¥456,000 per ton [40][41]. - Tungsten prices continued to rise, supported by supply reductions and policy controls, with average prices for tungsten bars at ¥1,180.00 per kg [46][48]. - The report emphasizes the potential for strategic metals and small metals to experience valuation reconstruction opportunities due to ongoing export control measures and market dynamics [57].

业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格延续强势，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251229-20260102 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 1．一周行情回顾 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.71%，深证成指上涨 0.29%，沪深 300 下跌 0.09%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 3.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.39 个百分点。2）分子板块看， ...

证券之星消息，1月5日工业金属板块较上一交易日上涨2.55%，兴业银锡领涨。当日上证指数报收于4023.42，上涨1.38%。深证成指报收于 13828.63，上涨2.24%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000426 | 兴业银锡 | 39.16 | 10.00% | 107.80万 | 40.90 乙 | | 600531 | 豫光金铅 | 12.59 | 7.15% | 144.20万 | 18.08亿 | | 601600 | 中国赣州 | 13.02 | 6.55% | 458.67万 | 59.57亿 | | 600615 | 整原書造 | 11.82 | 5.72% | 5.95万 | 6959.03万 | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | 18.01 | 5.51% | 60.53万 | 10.75亿 | | 000603 | 盛达资源 | 32.65 | 5.46% | 50.39万 | 16.35 Z | | 300697 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "structural bull" in 2025, followed by a "comprehensive bull" in the second half of 2026, according to Shenyin Wanguo's chief analyst Fu Jingtai [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The A-share bull market follows a "two-stage" pattern, with structural bulls occurring in 2013 and 2016-2017, followed by comprehensive bulls in 2015 and 2020-2021 [1] - During the structural bull phase, institutional holdings and valuations of core sectors reach initial high points, leading to a qualitative change in profit accumulation [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The comprehensive bull phase is anticipated to be driven by further upgrades in core industry trends, continuous expansion in improving fundamentals, and a positive cycle of incremental capital inflow [1] - The A-share market is expected to embrace global "competitive thinking," transitioning from "catching up" to "leading" in external circulation, which opens up transformation space for China's development [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - The leading themes for the 2026 bull market are expected to focus on three main directions: the AI industry trend extending from computing power to applications, breakthroughs in the robotics industry, and the revaluation of advanced manufacturing in energy storage and photovoltaics [1] - In the first half of 2026, cyclical and value sectors are likely to have relative advantages during market adjustments, with particular attention on excess returns in the basic chemicals and industrial metals sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "structural bull" in 2025, followed by a potential "full bull" market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The A-share bull market follows a "two-stage" pattern, with previous examples being the structural bull in 2013 followed by a full bull in 2015, and another structural bull from 2016 to 2017 followed by a full bull from 2020 to 2021 [1] - During the structural bull phase, institutional holdings and valuations of core sectors reach initial high points, leading to a qualitative change in the accumulation of institutional profit effects [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The potential full bull market in 2026 is supported by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, a new phase in technology industry trends, and a positive cycle of incremental capital inflow [1] - The A-share market is expected to embrace global "competitive thinking," transitioning from "following" to "leading" in external circulation, which opens up transformation space for China's development [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - The leading investment themes for the 2026 bull market will focus on three main areas: the extension of AI industry trends from computing power to applications, breakthroughs in the robotics industry, and the revaluation of advanced manufacturing in energy storage and photovoltaics [1] - In the first half of 2026, cyclical and value sectors are likely to have relative advantages during market consolidation, with particular attention on excess returns in the basic chemicals and industrial metals sectors [1]

申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛表示，2025年是典型的"结构牛"，2026年下半年则有望迎 来"全面牛"。 傅静涛提出，A股牛市行情遵循"两段论"规律：2013年迎来结构牛，随后就是2015年的全面牛；2016— 2017年迎来结构牛，随后就是2020—2021年的全面牛。在结构牛阶段，机构对核心板块的持仓与估值同 步触及首轮高位，叠加机构赚钱效应完成从量变到质变的积累。进入全面牛阶段，核心产业趋势进一步 升级，基本面改善的领域持续扩容，再与增量资金形成正向循环，最终使得估值提升到历史高位的赛道 明显增加。 傅静涛认为，2026年下半年可能迎来"全面牛"。基本面周期性改善、科技产业趋势新阶段演绎以及增量 资金流入正循环，构成全面牛的基本盘。A股将拥抱全球"竞争思维"，中国外循环从"跟跑"到"领跑"， 外循环取得突破，打开了中国发展转型空间。 他表示，2026年牛市的领涨主线，将聚焦在三大方向：AI产业趋势从算力向应用延伸，机器人产业实 现突破，储能、光伏领域等中国先进制造重估。顺周期与价值板块，大概率在2026年上半年的市场休整 阶段占相对优势，其中，周期领域的超额收益可重点关注基础化工、工业金属赛道。 ...