Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.79%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. The sub-sectors saw significant gains, with new materials up 8.62%, precious metals up 6.13%, industrial metals up 3.34%, energy metals up 2.29%, and minor metals up 2.17% [1][13] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting market sentiment, particularly affecting industrial metals, while precious metals like gold are benefiting from a declining US dollar index and increased safe-haven demand due to these tensions [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.79%, outperforming the index by 4.04 percentage points [13] - The non-ferrous metals sub-sectors all saw increases, with the new materials sector leading [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have declined due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with LME copper at $9,648/ton, down 0.24% week-on-week, and SHFE copper at ¥78,010/ton, down 1.17% [2][31] - Aluminum prices increased, with LME aluminum at $2,503/ton, up 2.10%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,440/ton, up 1.84%. Low inventory levels and rising overseas oil prices are supporting aluminum prices [3][35] - Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,627/ton, down 1.35%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,815/ton, down 2.55% [38] - Tin prices rose, with LME tin at $32,780/ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE tin at ¥263,690/ton, up 0.03% [41] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold at $3,452.60/oz, up 3.65%, and SHFE gold at ¥794.36/g, up 1.42%. The decline in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions are driving this increase [4][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in gold prices, surpassing $3,450 per ounce, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of demand for base metals, with various metals showing positive price movements and suggesting a stable supply-demand balance [4][9]. - The report suggests that the central bank's continued gold purchases indicate a long-term trend towards increasing gold prices, with a focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [4][21]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the non-ferrous metals index rose by 3.79%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.05 percentage points [5][4]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 6.13%, with aluminum up 2.28%, and copper rising by 4.09% [9][4]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up 44.49%, with copper and aluminum also showing significant gains [9][4]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced varied price changes, with copper down 0.50%, aluminum up 2.14%, and gold up 3.65% [4][15]. - The report notes that the average price of aluminum increased to 20,730 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.5% weekly rise [46][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - For copper, the report indicates a decrease in the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods and recycled copper rods, while the demand for wire and cable remains stable [30][4]. - The aluminum sector is facing a decline in processing enterprise operating rates, with a current operating rate of 60.40% [46][4]. - The steel sector is experiencing a decrease in production and demand, with a notable drop in rebar prices [70][4]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the metals sector, with Zijin Mining at 19.15 CNY/share and a projected PE ratio of 24 for 2023 [18][4]. - Other notable companies include Luoyang Molybdenum at 7.91 CNY/share and a PE ratio of 21, and Huayou Cobalt at 35.22 CNY/share with a PE ratio of 18 [18][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving up precious metal prices, with gold increasing by 3.65% and silver by 0.66% during the week [1]. - Industrial metals are expected to perform well due to ongoing export demand and significant production cuts from mines, particularly in copper [2]. - The lithium market is stabilizing, with prices expected to hold steady in the short term, while cobalt prices may see upward movement due to inventory depletion [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of central bank gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar as key factors supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 3.35% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 both fell by 0.25% [1]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation - The report notes fluctuations in base metal prices, with aluminum prices increasing by 2.10% and copper decreasing by 0.24% [1][12]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - Copper supply remains tight, with the SMM import copper concentrate index down by $44.75 per dry ton, a decrease of $1.46 [2]. - Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased by 44,000 tons, indicating a strong demand despite a seasonal slowdown [2]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, with a focus on companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [4]. - Silver prices are supported by industrial demand and are expected to perform well alongside gold [4]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stabilizing, with production increasing due to prior market rebounds, while cobalt prices are anticipated to rise as inventory levels decrease [3]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand and increased production capacity, with expectations of further price declines [3][56].

截至2025年6月13日收盘，海亮股份（002203）报收于10.05元，较上周的10.01元上涨0.4%。本周，海 亮股份6月10日盘中最高价报10.1元。6月13日盘中最低价报9.89元。海亮股份当前最新总市值200.83亿 元，在工业金属板块市值排名16/60，在两市A股市值排名773/5150。 本周关注点 浙江海亮股份有限公司于2024年11月7日及2024年11月28日召开会议，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份 方案的议案》，决定使用自有资金和回购专项贷款以集中竞价交易方式回购公司已发行的人民币普通股 （A股）。回购股份将用于实施股权激励或员工持股计划，回购资金总额不低于人民币5亿元，不超过 人民币6亿元，回购股份价格上限为13.29元/股。 截至2025年5月30日收盘，公司已累计回购股份48,814,564股，占公司总股本2.4428%，最高成交价格为 11.13元/股，最低成交价格为8.74元/股，成交总金额为500,021,726.80元（不含交易费用）。公司回购股 份金额已达回购方案中回购总金额下限且未超过回购总金额上限，回购价格未超过回购方案规定价格， 本次股份回购方案实施完毕。 本次回购 ...

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining (601168) has shown a slight increase in stock price, closing at 16.52 yuan, with a market capitalization of 39.367 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the industrial metals sector and 340th in the A-share market [1] Weekly Focus - The company conducted an institutional survey on June 12, discussing key topics such as hedging strategies, capital expenditures, and future development plans [1][2] - The company has a hedging ratio of approximately 50% for externally purchased raw materials to mitigate price fluctuations [1] - Annual capital expenditure is around 3 billion yuan, with the capital expenditure for the third phase of Yulong Copper's construction estimated at 5 billion yuan [1][6] - Currently, there are no plans for share buybacks or equity incentive programs, but the company will disclose any future plans [1] Resource Potential - Yulong Copper Mine has significant resource reserve potential, particularly in the unsealed areas of the ore body, with ongoing geological research and exploration efforts [2] Announcements - The company will participate in an online investor reception day on June 18, 2025, to discuss its 2024 annual performance and future strategies [3] - A cash dividend of 1 yuan per share will be distributed, with the record date set for June 19, 2025, and the payment date on June 20, 2025, totaling 2.383 billion yuan [4][6]

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Cycle Analysis - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle is a dominant driver of industry cycles in China, influencing the relationship between CAPEX, price-to-book (PB) ratio, and return on equity (ROE) [4] - The CAPEX cycle is divided into three stages: Stage 1 (oversupply leads to declining ROE and poor market performance), Stage 2 (declining CAPEX results in rising free cash flow and market rebound), and Stage 3 (supply-side clearing leads to improved ROE and better market performance) [4][14][15] - The PB-ROE model indicates significant investment value in Stage 2 (low PB and improving ROE) and Stage 3 (reasonable PB and steadily rising ROE) [16] Group 2: Market and Industry Comparisons - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the overall capital expenditure of A-share companies (excluding finance and real estate) is contracting, while free cash flow is improving [20] - The median CAPEX/depreciation ratio for secondary industries decreased from 1.35 to 1.29, while the median free cash flow/equity ratio increased from 4.4% to 4.8% [21] - The proportion of secondary industries with free cash flow greater than 0 has significantly increased, indicating a positive trend in cash flow [21][24] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The consumer sector shows overall CAPEX contraction and slight decline in free cash flow, with CAPEX levels below market averages and free cash flow above market averages [26] - The advanced manufacturing sector also experiences CAPEX contraction, while free cash flow shows slight improvement [4][26] - Eight industries within the consumer sector are highlighted as potential investment opportunities based on supply-side improvements [4][26]

公司报告 | 公司点评 天山铝业（002532） 证券研究报告 20 万吨电解铝富余指标拟开始建设，达产后产量增量 21% 事件：6 月 6 日公司发布公告，拟对公司 140 万吨电解铝产能进行绿色低 碳能效提升改造。项目完工后，公司电解铝产量将提升至 140 万吨/年左右， 铝液综合交流电耗将达到行业领先水平。 项目概况：1）建设期：暂定 10 个月，按照目前时间点推算，项目将于 26 年 4 月投产/达产；2）项目投资：约 22.31 亿元；3）场地：石河子厂区东 侧预留场地；4）技术路线：本项目采用全石墨化阴极炭块和新式节能阴 极结构技术，具有内衬寿命高、电阻率低、钠膨胀率低、抗热冲击性好、 电阻率低、运行稳定性和电流效率高等诸多优点；5）项目进度：项目已 获得相关政府部门的备案及批复，议案已获得公司董事会审议通过。 电解铝产能 120 万吨→140 万吨，达产后产量增量 21% 公司拥有 140 万吨电解铝产能指标，目前已建成 120 万吨电解铝产能， 实际年产量约 116 万吨左右（25 年经营计划原铝产量 116 万吨），尚余 24 万吨产能待建，预计该项目建成后形成 24 万吨产量净增量，增幅 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [2][16]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum plans to enhance its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity through a green low-carbon efficiency upgrade, which is expected to increase production capacity by 21% to approximately 1.4 million tons per year after completion [1][2]. - The project, with an investment of approximately 2.231 billion yuan, is set to be completed in about 10 months, targeting production by April 2026 [1][2]. - The company anticipates a favorable supply-demand situation for electrolytic aluminum, with cost reduction potential due to its integrated layout, which is expected to enhance performance in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Technology - Current electrolytic aluminum capacity stands at 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of about 1.16 million tons. The planned upgrade will add 240,000 tons of net capacity, representing a 21% increase [2]. - The project will utilize advanced energy-saving technologies, achieving industry-leading levels of power consumption [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a decline in 2023, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 10.30% in 2026 and 7.45% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 2.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.47 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 17.00 to 5.79 over the same period [4][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of Tianshan Aluminum is approximately 33.29 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.56 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.29 [5]. - The company is positioned within the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on industrial metals [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.74%, ranking it second among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment saw a rise due to optimistic macroeconomic sentiments following the U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][15]. - The report highlights that while industrial metals are showing strength, there are underlying concerns regarding demand, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are facing seasonal slowdowns [2][37]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, with 25 out of 31 sectors increasing. The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the index by 2.61 percentage points [15]. - The small metals and new materials sectors saw increases of 5.07% and 5.15%, respectively, while industrial metals rose by 3.24% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper increased, with LME copper at $9,671 per ton (up 1.83%) and SHFE copper at ¥78,930 per ton (up 1.71%). However, downstream demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices reached ¥2,452 per ton (up 0.12%), while SHFE aluminum remained stable at ¥20,070 per ton. Demand is declining, limiting upward price movement [3][37]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $2,663 per ton (up 1.25%) and SHFE zinc at ¥22,385 per ton (up 0.72%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [42]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose significantly, with LME tin at $32,255 per ton (up 6.70%) and SHFE tin at ¥263,600 per ton (up 5.31%) due to supply disruptions [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,331.10 per ounce (up 0.54%), while SHFE gold was at ¥783.24 per gram (up 2.48%). The market is reacting to mixed economic signals, with recent non-farm payroll data providing temporary relief from recession fears [4][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 1.18% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Precious metals have shown strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data from the U.S. [5] - The report highlights a divergence in the prices of strategic minor metals, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.18% from May 26 to June 6, 2025, with small metals and new metal materials leading the gains at 4.56% and 3.93% respectively [2][14] - Precious metals, energy metals, and industrial metals saw changes of 1.41%, 0.38%, and 0.06% respectively during the same period [14] Precious Metals - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, down 0.80% over the past two weeks but up 24.70% year-to-date [22] - COMEX silver closed at $36.13 per ounce, up 7.40% over the past two weeks and 20.49% year-to-date, driven by unique attributes and market sentiment [27][24] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,795 per ton, up 2.08% over the past two weeks and 12.77% year-to-date [31] - LME aluminum closed at $2,432 per ton, down 0.23% over the past two weeks and down 4.12% year-to-date [31] Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 172,500 CNY per ton, up 4.86% over the past two weeks and 20.84% year-to-date [36] - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 215,000 CNY per ton, down 3.37% over the past two weeks but up 53.30% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 183.45 as of June 6, up 3.09% over the past two weeks and 12.01% year-to-date [47] - Neodymium praseodymium oxide closed at 449,000 CNY per ton, up 4.66% over the past two weeks and 12.81% year-to-date [47] Energy Metals - As of June 6, electrolytic cobalt averaged 233,550 CNY per ton, down 0.98% over the past two weeks but up 36.98% year-to-date [52] - Sulfuric acid cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 48,375 CNY per ton, down 1.28% over the past two weeks and up 81.18% year-to-date [52] Major Events - Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, diversified its portfolio into rare metals by acquiring Vostok Engineering, which holds a development license for a rare earth deposit estimated at 154 million tons [4][59]