Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic recovery in Q1 is evident, with the March PMI returning to the expansion range, but there are still structural contradictions and risks from geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience [3]. - The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but remains volatile due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies, and their trends vary [11][12][16][22][26][30][36][40][55][59][65] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In January - February, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.0%. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US and Iran having complex interactions. The central bank's monetary policy committee held its Q1 meeting, and Japan warned about the yen's decline. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all returned to the expansion range [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: China's economic recovery is certain, but there are structural problems and risks from geopolitical conflicts. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but volatile. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][3][5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [4]. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract decreased by 8.40% day - on - day. The downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices. In the short - term, price fluctuations are large due to macro - level factors, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The silicon - based industrial chain is under pressure. Industrial silicon fluctuates widely between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon is still in a downward channel but with a narrowing decline [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The domestic and foreign aluminum markets show a pattern of "strong aluminum and weak alumina". The macro - environment and fundamentals are in a game, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the war situation. The market shows a pattern of "external strength and internal weakness", and the price is affected by multiple factors such as inventory and supply [18][19][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [22][23][24]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounds and then enters a wait - and - see state. The main contradiction lies in the macro - level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area is unexpectedly reduced, which supports the external market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [26][27]. - **Oils**: The Indonesian government's B50 policy is expected to be implemented, which boosts the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are sufficient but in a de - stocking trend, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The crude oil price drops due to the news of a possible cease - fire. The market is affected by multiple factors, and there is still great uncertainty [30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and the low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium drops significantly. The shortage of blending components still supports the price [31][32]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to position control [32][33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium are oscillating strongly. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rise strongly. The market is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, Fed monetary policy, and economic data. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [37][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory. The offset paper futures price is relatively stable. It is recommended to trade pulp futures in the short - term and try low - buying strategies for offset paper [40][41]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is supported by the expected geopolitical premium and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and strong trend [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is limited. The prices are expected to be supported [43][44][46]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The supply is tightened, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [47]. - **Rubber**: The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are rising. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical impacts [48][51][52]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price is expected to be affected by supply - demand relationships and macro - factors [55][56]. - **Glass**: The glass market is affected by factors such as cold - repair expectations, high inventory, and cost. The price is expected to be limited by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to macro - and emotional factors [58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory and weak supply - demand limit the upward space. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited height [59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported by cost and spot tightness in the short - term but is suppressed by demand and supply increment expectations in the long - term [61]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price drops due to weak market sentiment and over - valuation. The supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to have limited downward space after risk release [62][63]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fall back. The cost support logic still exists, and silicon manganese may be stronger than silicon iron [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig price continues to bottom out. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The expected US cotton planting area is higher than expected. The new - season global supply is expected to decrease, but the inflation in the US and the high domestic - foreign cotton price spread may limit the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation pattern due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67][69]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the festival, with limited upward space. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract [69]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is expected to be strongly oscillating, supported by the scarcity of delivery products in the 05 contract [78]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and oil mill demand [79][80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation and bottom - building pattern due to the loose supply - demand relationship [80][82]. - **Logs**: The log futures price falls due to the easing of geopolitical sentiment. The price is supported by factors such as inventory consumption and stable import costs, and it is recommended to trade in the range [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upward. The spot import window for refined copper in China opened, but import profits significantly narrowed. Macro factors included Powell's dovish statement and news of potential easing of the Middle - East conflict between the US and Iran. US job vacancies decreased, and the euro - zone inflation rate rose. In China, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs increased, and the central bank planned to strengthen monetary policy. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories decreased, and domestic downstream restocking led to a rapid decline in social inventories. Short - term, the market is optimistic about the conflict - easing signal, but caution is still needed. It is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance of copper prices in the 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina factory inventory is at a three - month high, and with imported alumina arriving and new capacity in Guangxi coming online, the inventory is accumulating again. The high premium in the futures market has accelerated warehouse receipt registration, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East are expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has shown signs of easing, and a de - stocking inflection point may be seen in April. In the short term, due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and unfulfilled domestic demand, the pattern of weak domestic and strong international prices is difficult to reverse quickly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell by 0.75%, while Shanghai nickel rose by 0.13%. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Under the influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight, nickel ore prices are high, and nickel - iron prices and MHP discount coefficients are strengthening. However, primary nickel inventory is under pressure. With the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, there are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics, market sentiment, and the potential impact of the July quota replenishment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by macro factors, inventory decline, and strong domestic demand. Short - term operation suggestions are given [1]. - **Aluminum**: Different trends in alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy. Inventory accumulation and geopolitical factors affect the market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Opposite price trends in LME and Shanghai nickel. Cost - side factors and inventory pressure co - exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, inventory decreases in multiple exchanges, and changes in import - related indicators [1][4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [3][5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][20]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [48][49].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on April 1, 2026, covering the market performance of A-shares, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures on March 31, 2026 [1][2][3] Market Performance A-share Market - On March 31, the four major A-share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8% to close at 3,891.86 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to close at 13,478.06 points; the ChiNext Index fell 2.7% to close at 3,184.95 points; the STAR 50 Index fell 2.59% to close at 1,256.33 points [2] - Market turnover was 2.0059 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, household appliances (+1.57%), banks (+0.72%), and food and beverages (+0.23%) performed well; coal (-3.67%), power equipment (-3.21%), and electronics (-2.71%) performed poorly [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,008/107/4,372 respectively [2] - In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large, and retail investors had net inflows of -26.9 billion, -22.5 billion, 15.6 billion, and 33.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -21.2 billion, -11 billion, +11.4 billion, and +20.8 billion yuan respectively [2] Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 121.85, 90.93, 36.65, and 4.72 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -13.33%, -9.95%, -6.86%, and -1.39% respectively, and the three-year historical quantiles were 24%, 23%, 17%, and 37% respectively [3] - The trading strategy is to maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium and long term. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has a certain excess return. It is recommended to allocate long positions in the forward contracts of each variety on dips [3] Treasury Bond Futures - On March 31, treasury bond futures strengthened slightly. Among the active contracts, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.15% [3] - For the current active contract 2606, the CTD bond of the 2-year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.058, and an IRR of 1.15%; the CTD bond of the 5-year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.017, and an IRR of 1.34%; the CTD bond of the 10-year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of +0.4bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.017, and an IRR of 1.5%; the CTD bond of the 30-year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.099, and an IRR of 1.82% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 32.5 billion yuan and withdrew 17.5 billion yuan through open market operations, with a net injection of 15 billion yuan [3] - The trading strategy is that the short-term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium and long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge on rallies for T and TL [3] Tables and Figures Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including codes, names, price changes, current prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading amounts, open interests, daily position changes, settlement prices, basis, and annualized basis yields [5] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including codes, names, price changes, current prices, trading volumes, trading amounts, open interests, daily position changes, settlement prices, net basis, and implied interest rates of CTD bonds [6] Short-term Fund Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the changes in short-term fund interest rates, including the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago [9] Treasury Bond Spot Term Structure - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spots from March 31, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [7][8]

Report Information - Report title: "Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report" [1] - Report date: April 1, 2026 [1] - Data date: March 31, 2026 [2] Key Points about Fund Flows and Positions Morgan Chase - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] Qiankun Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] UBS Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 4.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] CITIC Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 10.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4] Guotai Junan - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 20.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the impact of the geopolitical situation on the market is gradually digested, if the gold ETF holdings stop falling and rebound, indicating improved confidence of allocation funds, one can try to go long on dips in the range of $4400 - $4500, and pay attention to the stage resistance of the 20 - day moving average [1] - In the short term, with the easing of the US - Iran war, silver is expected to stabilize above $70 along with gold. One can seize the opportunity for a band - up move with boosted market sentiment, and the upper resistance is at $85 [1] - Platinum's price is rising in the central range of $1850 - $2015, and palladium is oscillating above $1400. Since palladium has a relatively weaker fundamental, the long position on the platinum - palladium ratio can continue to be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.51% (5.22 yuan) from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 18126 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.37% (419 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 493.10 yuan/gram on March 31, down 0.88% (4.40 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 361.40 yuan on March 31, up 1.15% (4.10 yuan) from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4699.60 on March 31, up 3.51% (159.20) from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 75.35 on March 31, up 7.36% (5.16) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 1962.30 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.67% (69.40) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1488.50 on March 31, up 5.31% (75.00) from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4669.13 on March 31, up 3.45% (155.61) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 75.11 on March 31, up 7.24% (5.07) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 1950.00 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.34% (63.00) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1448.00 on March 31, up 1.26% (18.00) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1015.68 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.67% (6.72 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 18031 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.68% (471 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 495 yuan/gram on March 31, up 1.10% (5 yuan) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 4.42, up 1.50 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 had a change, and the 1 - year historical quantile was 60.60% [1] - Another basis was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold had a change [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 62.37 on March 31, down 3.59% (2.32) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 56.28 on March 31, down 1.81% (1.04) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.32 on March 31, down 1.56% (0.02) from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 31, down 2.01% (0.03) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.30 on March 31, down 1.1% (0.05) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.79 on March 31, down 0.8% (0.03) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.00 on March 31, down 2.0% (0.04) from the previous value [1] - US dollar index was 09.88 on March 31, down 0.62% (0.62) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8879 on March 31, down 0.41% (0.0285) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kilograms on March 31, unchanged from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 368667 on March 31, down 1.54% (5760) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 31533901 on March 31, down 0.01% (2604) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 327820669 on March 31, up 0.07% (231248) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts was 16563243 on March 31, down 0.33% (55291) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts was 76429739 on March 31, up 0.53% (404881) from the previous value [1] - SPRD gold ETF holdings was 1047 on March 31, up 0.11% (1.15) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings was 15274 on March 31, down 0.09% (14.08) from the previous value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Production decreased month - on - month, apparent demand increased, inventory entered the destocking phase. Overall supply - demand is relatively balanced, but East China inventory is still high. With weak domestic policy expectations, strong external disturbances, and large fluctuations in raw material prices, steel may fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased slightly but the absolute level is still high. Overall supply - demand is relatively stable. The market is greatly affected by external disturbances, and iron ore provides cost support. It may fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Pig iron production increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and external ore shipments dropped significantly. The fundamentals have improved overall, and the price is oscillating strongly. However, large fluctuations in the crude oil system may affect capital sentiment [1][8] - **Coke**: Coke enterprise profits decreased slightly, production remained stable, and some areas reduced production due to environmental protection restrictions. Pig iron production increased month - on - month, and coke enterprise inventory continued to decline. Overall supply - demand is relatively balanced, and it moves in a range following coking coal [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mine daily production continued to recover. The online auction failure rate increased recently, downstream replenishment and speculative demand weakened, and coal mine clean coal inventory maintained normal destocking. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained at a high level. Spot quotes mainly fluctuate with the futures market. External disturbances are still uncertain, and the energy substitution logic is gradually weakening [1][16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production in the production area decreased slightly, demand decreased month - on - month, and inventory decreased by 12,000 tons this period. Australian mainstream manganese mines' May quotations continued to rise, providing strong cost support. A large steel mill in Hebei launched a supplementary tender for silicon - manganese alloy in March, with a quantity of 5,100 tons, and the tender result is pending [1][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production in the production area decreased slightly, demand decreased slightly, and inventory decreased significantly by about 4,500 tons this period. The Lanthanum carbon procurement price of a mainstream calcium carbide enterprise in Inner Mongolia increased. In the short term, the fundamentals are good, and the market may move in a range following manganese silicon [1][20] - **Glass**: Production profit is still poor, cold - repair production lines increased, the start - up rate continued to decline, and production decreased. Energy cost increases provide cost support, but demand is still weak, downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and high inventory restricts the upward space of the market. It may maintain low - level operation under weak supply and demand [1][24] - **Soda Ash**: The production side is relatively stable, some projects are under maintenance, but overall production remains high. The demand side is still weak, the daily melting volume of glass remains low, and purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Inventory is still at a high level in the same period, with obvious pressure. External disturbances intensify, and rising energy prices drive up the overall cost. It may operate in a low - level range [1][28] 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar**: Futures prices (e.g., RB01 at 3188, up 15; RB05 at 3139, up 15; RB10 at 3168, up 17), spot prices (e.g., Tangshan billet at 2980, up 20; Shanghai rebar at 3230, up 10), and various price differences and basis data are provided [2] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Futures prices (e.g., HC01 at 3323, up 12; HC05 at 3308, unchanged; HC10 at 3323, up 13), spot prices (e.g., Tianjin hot - rolled coil at 3230, up 10; Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3290, unchanged), and various price differences and basis data are provided [2] Iron Ore - Futures prices (e.g., i01 at 772, up 2; i05 at 813, up 1; i09 at 791, up 3), spot prices (e.g., PB powder at 786, unchanged; Yangdi powder at 695, unchanged), price differences, basis, freight rates, and spot index data are provided [6] Coke - Futures prices (e.g., J01 at 1923.0, down 3.0; J05 at 1753.5, up 1.5; J09 at 1842.0, up 2.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1230, unchanged), and various production, inventory, and profit data are provided [11] Coking Coal - Futures prices (e.g., JM01 at 1543.5, down 6.5; JM05 at 1214.0, down 5.0; JM09 at 1352.5, down 4.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang main coking coal at 1540, up 100), and various production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Futures prices (e.g., SM01 at 6658, up 30; SM05 at 6655, up 8; SM09 at 6646, up 20), spot prices (e.g., Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese 6517 at 6300, up 70), and various price differences, basis, production, and inventory data are provided [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices (e.g., SF01 at 6166, up 38; SF05 at 6066, up 54; SF09 at 6162, up 50), spot prices (e.g., Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72 at 5730, up 30), and various price differences, basis, production, and inventory data are provided [19] Glass - Futures market data (e.g., FG01 at 1266, down 7; FG05 at 1040, down 1; FG09 at 1182, up 3), basis, price differences, and spot market and industrial chain data (e.g., Hubei glass at 1080, unchanged; inventory at 7601 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 37.3%) are provided [23] Soda Ash - Futures market data (e.g., SA01 at 1346, down 14; SA05 at 1207, down 22; SA09 at 1292, down 18), basis, price differences, and spot market and industrial chain data (e.g., Shahe soda ash at 1190, down 20; inventory at 189.4 ten - thousand tons, up 19.3%) are provided [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The supply disturbances support the high - level operation of the ore price, but the sustainability is not strong, and the demand growth space is limited. The fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the high - valued ore price continues to face pressure [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the bullish factors remain, leading to the high - level oscillation of the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously rising, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, limiting the growth space. The arrival at domestic ports is continuously rising, while the shipments of miners have declined due to hurricane disturbances, but port operations have resumed, with a relatively limited impact. The domestic ore supply is stable, and the ore supply continues to operate smoothly. The supply disturbances support the high - level operation of the ore price, but the sustainability is not strong, and the demand growth space is limited. The fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the high - valued ore price continues to face pressure. The trend is expected to maintain high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the gold market experienced a sharp shift from "safe - haven frenzy" to "stagflation concerns", with the short - term safe - haven property of gold temporarily overshadowed by soaring interest rate expectations, creating a false impression of "ineffectiveness". In Q2, investors should focus on the "golden pit" layout opportunities between interest rates and geopolitical conflicts [1]. - The current market is forming a "stagflation - like" pattern. In the short term, gold may be under pressure, but as economic downward pressure emerges, its anti - inflation and safe - haven values will re - emerge [2]. - Gold is expected to have a wide - range shock and bottom - building in the short term (1 - 3 months), its allocation value will significantly increase in the medium term (3 - 6 months) if economic data continues to be weak, and it has a long - term bullish logic supported by structural factors in the long term (6 - 12 months). Silver will follow gold to bottom and wait for industrial demand to catalyze in Q2 [3]. - Investors can consider 4300 US dollars per ounce as a tactical layout reference area, and if the price approaches 3900 - 4000 US dollars per ounce due to extreme sentiment, it should be regarded as an important strategic adding opportunity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Market Review: Violent Fluctuations under Geopolitical Conflicts and Policy Shifts - **Geopolitical Conflicts: From Safe - Haven Pulse to Risk Re - evaluation**: In early March, the US - Israel joint military action against Iran triggered a safe - haven pulse in the market. COMEX gold once exceeded 5400 US dollars per ounce, and Brent crude oil price soared. However, as the conflict situation eased marginally in mid - to late March, high oil prices led to an increase in global inflation expectations, changing the market's macro trading logic [7][10]. - **Monetary Policy Shift: The Fed's Hawkish Signal as the Market Watershed**: The Fed's March interest - rate meeting sent a strong hawkish signal, reversing the market's easing expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields directly suppressed the price of gold, and the price of gold dropped significantly [11][14]. - **Asset Performance Differentiation: Different Paths of Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil**: Gold showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while silver performed significantly weaker than gold, with a quarterly decline of more than 4% due to the suppression of its financial and industrial attributes [15][18]. - **Market Structure Change: From Crowded Trading to Liquidity Shock**: The highly crowded long positions in the gold market at the end of 2025 to early 2026 became an amplifier of the market decline when the price turned. The triggering of stop - loss orders in program trading and the widening of bid - ask spreads by market - makers led to a sharp decline in market liquidity [21][24]. - **Structural Factors: Marginal Changes in Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks' continuous gold - buying behavior provided long - term support for the gold price. However, in Q1 2026, the motivation for central bank gold purchases weakened significantly, and selling behavior increased compared to 2025 [25][28]. 3.2 Macro Environment Analysis: The Fed's Hawkish Stance, Inflation Pressure, and Economic Stagflation Risk - **Monetary Policy: A Clear Shift from "Wait - and - See" to "Tightening"**: The Fed's decision in the March interest - rate meeting marked a fundamental shift in its policy stance. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts decreased significantly, and global central banks mostly maintained a hawkish or tightening stance, which put short - term pressure on the gold price [30][33]. - **Inflation Drivers: Energy Prices as the Core Driver and Policy Constraint**: Geopolitical conflicts led to an energy crisis, which was the main driver of inflation. High oil prices increased inflation and suppressed economic growth, forming a stagflation risk. If inflation persists, it may increase the demand for gold as an anti - inflation asset [38][41]. - **Economic Outlook: The Co - existence of "Stagnation" Signs and "Inflation" Pressure**: The US economy showed signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising and the manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line. The global economic growth expectation faced a downward risk, and the current environment formed a "stagflation - like" pattern, which was a stage where gold could play its unique value [42][46]. - **Interest Rates and the US Dollar: Twin Shackles Suppressing Precious Metals**: The Fed's hawkish stance led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of the US dollar, which directly suppressed the price of gold. The market was in a game between "interest - rate suppression" and "safe - haven/anti - inflation support" [47][50]. 3.3 Geopolitical Impact Mechanism: The Double - Game and Transmission Path of the Middle East Conflict on Gold - The impact of the Middle East conflict on gold is through two opposite transmission paths: the safe - haven demand support path and the interest - rate expectation suppression path. In Q1 2026, the market's focus shifted from the safe - haven support path to the interest - rate expectation suppression path, and the pricing logic of gold has changed from being driven by geopolitical events to being driven by macro - policy expectations [51][52]. 3.4 Re - examination of Gold's Safe - Haven Property: Verification of Long - Term Logic and Analysis of Short - Term Ineffectiveness - **Solid Foundation and Continuous Verification of Long - Term Safe - Haven Logic**: Gold's long - term safe - haven logic is based on its currency property, scarcity, and functions of hedging long - term inflation and currency depreciation. It has been continuously verified in the long - term, and current structural factors are strengthening this logic [54]. - **Characteristics and Core Mechanisms of Short - Term "Ineffectiveness" in Q1 2026**: In March 2026, the short - term performance of gold was contrary to traditional safe - haven cognition. This "ineffectiveness" was the result of multiple suppression mechanisms under specific market conditions, rather than the disappearance of its safe - haven property [55]. - **Differentiated Performance of Short - Term and Long - Term Logic Based on the Nature of the Crisis**: Gold's safe - haven property depends on the nature of the crisis. In the short term, it may be affected by interest - rate and liquidity factors, but in the long term, its safe - haven and anti - inflation properties will re - emerge [56]. - **Subsequent Verification: Key Indicators for Observing the Return of Long - Term Logic**: In Q2, key indicators such as the Fed's policy and inflation game, market liquidity, geopolitical risk transmission path, and the continuity of structural demand should be closely monitored to judge whether gold's safe - haven property will return to the dominant state [57][58]. 3.5 Future Gold Price Changes at Different Time Nodes - **Short - Term (1 - 3 months)**: The gold price will be affected by the after - effects of the liquidity shock and the tug - of - war of interest - rate expectations. It may show a wide - range shock pattern in the early stage of Q2, and 4200 US dollars per ounce is the first support level to be verified [61]. - **Medium - Term (3 - 6 months)**: The market will focus on economic data verification. If economic data continues to be weak, the market will trade the economic recession risk and expect the Fed to loosen monetary policy, and the allocation value of gold will significantly increase [62]. - **Long - Term (6 - 12 months)**: Gold's pricing logic has shifted to a structural bull market driven by the deep - seated transformation of the global monetary system. Global debt, central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization process provide long - term support for gold [64]. 3.6 Silver Market Analysis: Industrial Attributes, Relative Performance, and Q2 Outlook - **Reasons for the Silver Price Decline in Q1**: In Q1 2026, the silver market was weak, with a decline of 4.26% in the London silver spot price. Its weakness was due to the simultaneous pressure on its financial and industrial attributes. The financial attribute was suppressed by the Fed's hawkish stance, and the industrial demand expectation was weakened by the uncertain global economic outlook [67][68]. - **Q2 Silver Outlook: Following Gold to Bottom and Waiting for Industrial Demand Catalysis**: In Q2, silver will mainly follow gold to fluctuate. If the market expects the Fed to loosen policy in the middle and late Q2, the suppression of silver's financial attribute will be alleviated. The recovery of industrial demand may drive silver to have an independent upward market, but it also faces greater downward risks [69][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of global futures, important macro and industry - related news, and the performance of financial markets at home and abroad. It also provides information on upcoming economic data releases and events, helping investors understand the current market situation and possible future trends. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.12% at $4699.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 6.77% at $75.34 per ounce [4][45]. - U.S. oil and Brent oil futures fell. U.S. oil's main contract dropped 1.28% to $101.56 per barrel, and Brent oil's main contract fell 3.86% to $103.25 per barrel. The significant increase in U.S. API crude inventories last week led to concerns about oversupply [4][45]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME copper up 1.30% at $12382.5 per ton, LME aluminum up 1.03% at $3436.0 per ton, etc., while LME lead and nickel declined slightly [4][46]. - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed results. Low - sulfur fuel oil and BR rubber rose over 2%, and some commodities like rubber and palm oil rose over 1%. Meanwhile, coking coal dropped over 2%, and glass, fuel oil, and soda ash fell over 1% [4]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee emphasized implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and coordinating the relationship between total supply and demand [7]. - China's manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range [7]. - Tensions in the Iran - related situation continued, with statements from multiple parties regarding the war and the Strait of Hormuz issue [8][10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The production lines of Tianjin Taibo Float Glass and Jiangxi Ganyue Photovoltaic were shut down. South Africa will cut fuel taxes to offset the impact of rising oil prices. OPEC's oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since June 2020 [12]. Metal Futures - Silver production in some regions in March increased by about 4.22% compared to February. A large - scale alumina plant in Shandong raised the purchase price of ion - membrane caustic soda. CSPT did not set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter [15]. Black - Series Futures - Inner Mongolia Baite Metallurgical and Building Materials Co., Ltd. reduced the production of a silicon - manganese alloy furnace, affecting the daily output by 300 tons. The floating value of coking coal long - term contracts in March decreased by 24 yuan/ton compared to February [18][19]. Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports in March increased significantly. Some soybean - processing plants in Northeast China shut down due to shortages. The开机率 of some oil mills decreased slightly, and it is expected that the soybean meal inventory will decline slightly by the end of the month [23][24]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares fluctuated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.81%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.7%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.15% [30][32]. - The public - offering fund market is implementing new regulations on performance comparison benchmarks. Many companies' IPO applications were suspended for financial data updates. Zhongke Yuhang's application for a science - and - technology innovation board IPO was accepted, and Galaxy Aerospace started A - share listing counseling [32][33]. Industry - During the Tomb - sweeping Festival in 2026, 7 - seat and below small passenger cars on highways will be exempt from tolls. The nine - department jointly issued a plan to promote the innovation and development of the Internet of Things industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will formulate the "15th Five - Year" new - battery development plan [34][36]. Overseas - The Iran - related war may cause significant losses to the GDP of Arab countries, and some countries' GDP may shrink. The U.S. may make decisions on NATO's future after the end of the military operation against Iran [37]. - The U.S., Israel, and Iran continued military actions and exchanges of warnings. The Kansas Fed President warned about the inflation impact of rising energy prices due to the Iran conflict [39][40]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 2.49%, the S&P 500 up 2.91%, and the Nasdaq up 3.83%. European stocks also rose, while most Asian - Pacific stocks fell [43][44]. Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, while oil futures fell. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. reached a nearly 4 - year high, and most London base metals rose [45][46]. Bonds - The inter - bank bond market in China was mainly in shock, with most major interest - rate bond yields rising slightly. The U.S. Treasury bond yields showed a mixed trend [47][48]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose. The Japanese government warned about the yen's decline, and the South Korean won against the U.S. dollar approached a 17 - year low [50]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data from various countries will be released, including Japan's first - quarter short - term large non - manufacturing sentiment index, South Korea's March trade balance preliminary value, etc. [53] - There are also important events such as the European Central Bank's executive's speech on the digital euro and the release of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy meeting minutes [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In March 2026, the domestic stock index futures market weakened overall, with all major futures contracts closing down. Small and medium - cap related index futures declined more significantly than large - cap blue - chip varieties. The market sentiment remained weak throughout the month, and the index futures were under pressure [4]. - The full - bond futures showed a differentiated trend last month. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures declined, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures showed slight increases [5]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose above the critical point, indicating an improvement in the overall business climate [8][11][15]. - The overall market valuation is at a relatively high level, and the valuation pressure of small and medium - cap varieties is more prominent. The high valuation restricts the upward space of the market, and if the performance fails to meet expectations, there will be greater valuation adjustment pressure [33][34]. - The trend of index futures deviates from the repair of the domestic economic fundamentals. The core suppression factors are the high overall valuation and the overseas geopolitical conflicts, which lead to a decline in market risk preference. The size - style differentiation is significant, with small and medium - cap varieties adjusting more than large - cap blue - chip varieties [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: In March, the domestic stock index futures market weakened. The CSI 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,375.8 with a monthly decline of 7.17% (-338.0); the SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,804.0 with a monthly decline of 7.93% (-241.4); the CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 7,425.0 with a monthly decline of 14.12% (-1220.4); the CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,379.4 with a monthly decline of 13.50% (-1152.0) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 111.690 with a monthly decline of 0.38% (-0.43); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 108.400 with a monthly increase of 0.01% (0.010); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 106.025 with a monthly increase of 0.11% (0.120); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.538 with a monthly increase of 0.09% (0.090) [5]. 3.2 Valuation Analysis - As of March 31, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 13.96 times, the quantile was 77.69%, and the PB was 1.44 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.30 times, the quantile was 75.34%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 35.15 times, the quantile was 86.69%, and the PB was 2.42 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.94 times, the quantile was 75.54%, and the PB was 2.55 times [18]. 3.3 Other Data - **Stock - Bond Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond spread. One is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [26]. - **China - Buffett Indicator**: The reasonable valuation range of A - shares is about 70% - 100%. As of March 30, 2026, the "total market value/GDP" was 88.43%, the quantile in historical data was 87.55%, and the quantile in the last 10 - year data was 91.34% [29][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Policy**: The policy maintains a loose tone. The market liquidity environment is stable and loose, and the policy emphasizes the implementation of active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [32]. - **Domestic Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed work and production, and the market activity increased. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing business climate improved, and the comprehensive economic climate returned to the expansion range [32]. - **Overseas Situation**: Geopolitical conflicts continued to ferment, leading to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment, rising commodity prices, and increased production costs for domestic enterprises, which may affect the global supply chain and inflation expectations and disturb the policy rhythm [32]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - **Single - Side Trading**: Be cautious and participate in bottom - fishing. Large - cap blue - chip index futures have a relatively higher safety margin. Pay attention to the layout opportunities after the shock correction. For small and medium - cap varieties, do not blindly chase the high and strictly control the position to prevent volatility risks [35]. - **Arbitrage**: Participate in the spread convergence strategy of going long on IH and short on IM/IC. Pay close attention to the progress of geopolitical conflicts and market style switching signals. If the risk - aversion sentiment continues to rise, the defensive attribute of the large - cap style will be dominant in the short term, and set stop - losses strictly [35]. - **Options**: In the context of expected market volatility, use the covered call strategy to increase the holding income. To prevent the downside risks caused by valuation decline and geopolitical conflicts, consider buying out - of - the - money put options for hedging [35].