1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Industry Overview Production Industry - The 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24th to 26th in Hangzhou with the theme of "Cloud-Intelligence Integration, Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis", featuring three main forums and over 110 aggregated topics focusing on AI, cloud computing, and industrial applications [1] Service Industry - At the press conference, the head of the central bank mentioned that the theme was about the mid - to long - term "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry without short - term policy adjustments; the head of the financial regulatory agency stated that the total assets of the banking and insurance industries exceeded 500 trillion yuan with an average growth of over 9% in five years; the head of the CSRC said that the market value of the A - share technology sector accounted for over 1/4, and the number of tech companies in the top 50 market - value companies increased from 18 to 24; the deputy head of the central bank and head of the SAFE mentioned that cross - border two - way investment and financing were active, with overseas institutions and individuals holding over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits by the end of July [2] Upstream - Black: Wire rod prices have rebounded [3] - Energy: Crude oil and natural gas prices have slightly declined [3] Midstream - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable at a medium level [4] - Agriculture: The production of pig products has increased [4] Downstream - Service: The number of domestic flights has increased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 2288.6 | -0.50% | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 7.8 | 1.56% | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 9372.0 | -0.30% | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 15242.2 | -0.09% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 19.6 | -1.61% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 80233.3 | -0.95% | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 21942.0 | -1.22% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 20826.7 | -1.09% | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 122750.0 | -0.81% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 17081.3 | 0.29% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3167.5 | 1.07% | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 807.4 | -0.06% | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3410.0 | 2.87% | | Building materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/22 | 14.3 | 2.14% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 14908.3 | -1.49% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 791.3 | -0.34% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 62.4 | -0.46% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 66.0 | -1.42% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3794.0 | -2.12% | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 784.0 | 1.16% | | Chemicals | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 4626.3 | -0.12% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 7386.7 | 0.11% | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1655.0 | -0.60% | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 133.3 | 1.86% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 114.8 | 1.48% | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 91.7 | -0.45% | [39]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the commodity industry. Core Viewpoint - In the context of positive liquidity, the commodity market may operate stably in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances persist, but the expectation of loose liquidity and peak demand season provides support [1]. Market Review Overall Market - Last week, the rise - fall ratio of the commodity market was basically flat compared to the previous week. The precious metals sector led the gain with 2.34%, followed by the non - ferrous metals with 0.35%. The energy - chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors declined by 1.26%, 0.65%, and 0.01% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were gold, silver, and aluminum with increases of 2.28%, 2.27%, and 2.05% respectively. The top - losers were natural rubber, palm oil, and asphalt, dropping 3.09%, 2.41%, and 2.01% respectively [1][5]. - The decline of the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to narrow. Most sectors saw a decrease in volatility. The overall market scale increased, with most of the capital inflow coming from the precious metals sector, while the scale of the black and agricultural products sectors decreased slightly [1]. Sub - sectors - **Precious Metals**: The increase in weekly initial jobless claims and cooling inflation data led the market to fully price in three Fed rate cuts this year. However, the sector showed signs of fatigue after continuous rises. Geopolitical disturbances may amplify short - term fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: A weaker dollar and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season provided support. Although the inventory inflection point was not clear, downstream consumption in the automotive and power industries was strong, and the sector may operate stably in the short term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. Blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot metal output increased significantly. However, low steel mill profits may limit further复产. The raw material market was volatile, and the cost increase supported the industry chain, but price contradictions intensified after the cost rebound [2]. - **Energy**: The IEA's September oil market report showed that the upward adjustment of the supply forecast was greater than that of the demand, increasing the market surplus. Geopolitical factors supported oil prices in the short term, but the mid - term surplus limited the geopolitical premium [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester, terminal weaving orders increased, and the textile and dyeing industry's operating rate rose slightly. However, high inventory and poor profits of polyester filaments led to slow load increases. The industry chain's valuation may recover relative to oil prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's September supply - demand report was neutral to bearish. U.S. soybeans rebounded after a brief correction and may continue to be strong in the short term. Palm oil was supported by the mid - term seasonal production cut cycle, long - term biodiesel policies, and aging trees, providing a floor for the oil market [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.3%. The total scale of gold ETFs increased by 1.36%, and the total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 1.41%. However, the trading volume of most gold ETFs decreased [35]. - The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.42%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 0.96%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 0.88%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81% [35][36].

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for August 2025 is reported at 111.7 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] - The index has shown a continuous month-on-month recovery for four consecutive months, indicating that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing competition are positively impacting production and business operations [1] Industry Analysis - The black goods price index has continued to rebound, reporting 79.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - The energy price index has stopped its decline, reporting 98.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [1] - The non-ferrous price index continues to rise, reporting 130.4 points with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1] - The agricultural products price index has slightly decreased, reporting 97.1 points with a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - The chemical price index continues to decline, reporting 101.9 points with a month-on-month decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [1] - The mineral price index continues to fall, reporting 70.5 points with a month-on-month decrease of 1.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [1] Commodity Price Movements - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 25 (50%) saw price increases while 25 (50%) experienced price declines in August compared to July [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were coke, neodymium oxide, and lithium carbonate, with month-on-month increases of 20.1%, 19.1%, and 16.6% respectively [2] - The top three commodities with the largest price declines were apples, methanol, and urea, with month-on-month decreases of 4.6%, 3.6%, and 2.8% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The industry anticipates a stable development trend in the commodity market as the traditional production peak season approaches in September and October [2] - However, global economic uncertainties remain, and some commodity prices are still at low levels, indicating that businesses face significant operational pressures [2] - To solidify the foundation for economic recovery, there is a need for enhanced macroeconomic regulation and effective measures to unleash domestic demand potential [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume, leading to significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is influenced by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor. Traders prefer blue - chip stocks. It's advisable to hold positions and take risk - avoidance measures before a clear consensus is formed [4]. - The bond market may need to repeatedly test the bottom due to the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic as stock market risks increase after reaching a high level [4]. - For the shipping index (European line) futures, the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the risk of a low - level rebound of some contracts [6]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and may maintain a strong state in the short - term. It's recommended to pay attention to the impact of the US PCE data on Friday night [10]. - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong [15]. - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a situation of long - short game, waiting for clear signals [18]. - Tin is expected to be slightly strong [20]. - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [25]. - For steel products, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term [27]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [28]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. - For crude oil, it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [32]. - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up [33]. - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [36]. - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern [39]. - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [41]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [43]. - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved [44]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations [46]. - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels [49]. - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. - For soda ash, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [52]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance state, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [53]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Macro - Domestic policies focus on promoting service consumption, and overseas markets show economic and employment resilience in the US. Attention should be paid to the upcoming US non - farm payroll report and price index [1]. - The Fed's policy shows marginal loosening signs, and the US dollar index is in a shock - consolidation pattern. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to be more likely to depreciate [2]. Stock Index - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume and significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is affected by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and may need to repeatedly test the bottom, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic [4]. Shipping Index - The shipping index (European line) futures are affected by the reduction of spot cabin quotes and geopolitical risks, and the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the US PCE data on Friday night. It's recommended to go long on dips [8][10]. Copper - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures due to factors such as the US dollar index and demand [13]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong, each with different influencing factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14][15]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term, with support from inventory and potential demand improvement [16][18]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are in a long - short game situation, and attention should be paid to factors such as nickel ore supply, nickel iron price, and stainless steel demand [18][19]. Tin - Tin is expected to be slightly strong, supported by supply - side tightness and inventory decline [20]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. Lead - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with limited upward space and sufficient downward support [25]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply and demand of five major steel products both increase, but the inventory accumulates, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term due to support from coking coal and macro - sentiment [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy [28]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are facing supply pressure, and it's recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market is in a multi - empty game, and it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [30][32]. LPG - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [32][33]. PTA - PX - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][36]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. PP - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern, affected by supply and demand factors [37][39]. PE - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [40][41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [41][43]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [44]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. Asphalt - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [46]. Rubber and 20 - Rubber - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels, affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [48][49]. Urea - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and glass is in a weak balance state, both affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [52][53].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the current market sentiment remains high, with an influx of incremental funds and a continued "deposit migration" logic, leading to a sustained profit effect [2][5]. - It is expected that the A-share market will continue its upward trend unless there is policy intervention, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced allocation focusing on mid-to-large cap and leading companies, particularly in the technology growth sector [2][5]. - The article suggests paying attention to the rotation and rebound opportunities in key sectors such as technology, new energy, cyclical industries (including military and rare earths), pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend stocks [2][5]. Group 2 - In the equity market, the style shifted from small-cap dominance to large-cap dominance, with growth style significantly outperforming [7]. - The volatility of both small and large-cap styles has decreased, while the volatility of value and growth styles has increased [7][10]. - The concentration of trading has increased, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries seeing a rapid rise in their transaction volume proportions [7][10]. Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals has slightly decreased, while the trend strength of energy and black metals has increased [12]. - The volatility of energy and black metal sectors has decreased from near-year highs, while the volatility of precious metals has slightly increased [12]. - Liquidity in the black and non-ferrous metal sectors has rapidly declined [12]. Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 remains high, indicating pressure on short positions due to strong upward movements [14]. - The skew of put options has dropped into negative territory, with an increase in the open interest of put options compared to call options, suggesting that market participants are beginning to take risk precautions [14]. Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced some volatility, with the premium rate for conversion dropping significantly from its peak to near the median of the past year, primarily due to the market's sharp rise [16]. - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has decreased, indicating that the recent valuation drop is mainly due to adjustments in previously high premium convertible bonds [16].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the "anti-involution" policy progress in the production industry and the entry-exit new policies in the service industry. It also provides an overview of the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries, including price changes and industry indicators [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The energy storage industry is promoting "anti - involution." As of August 14, 152 enterprises have participated in the initiative issued by the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association on August 13 [1]. - **Service Industry**: On August 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation. The "Decision of the State Council on Amending the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners" will be implemented on October 1, 2025, adding a K - type visa for foreign young scientific and technological talents [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of glass in the black industry has declined, while the prices of eggs and palm oil in the agricultural industry have increased [2]. - **Midstream**: The urea production start - up rate in the chemical industry has stopped falling [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low. The number of domestic flights is at a high level [4]. 3. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides the credit spreads of various industries as of August 13, including industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, chemical industry, etc., and shows their changes over different time periods [48]. 4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report tracks the price indicators of key industries as of August 14, including the prices of agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate - related building materials, and shows their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [49].

Investment Insights - The market sentiment remains strong with margin trading exceeding 2 trillion, indicating a potential overheating risk [1][4] - The cyclical sector is gaining strength driven by expectations from projects like the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, while the rotation between growth and cyclical stocks continues [1][4] Equity Market Overview - Small-cap growth stocks significantly outperformed last week, while the volatility of both large and small-cap styles increased [6] - The dispersion of excess returns among industry indices is at a near one-year low, indicating a slowdown in industry rotation [6] - The trading concentration has increased, with the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries seeing a rise in transaction value share [6] Commodity Market Analysis - Precious metals and agricultural products showed increased trend strength, while other sectors remained stable or declined [15][16] - The volatility in black and energy chemical sectors remained stable, with a slight decrease in the volatility of non-ferrous metals [15][16] Options Market Insights - Implied volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 indices continues to decline, reflecting a market that is both strong and cautious [24] Convertible Bond Market Trends - The premium rate for convertible bonds is approaching a one-year high, while the proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums is increasing, indicating structural growth characteristics [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The multi - short ranking of commodities has changed significantly this week, with the divergence between energy and non - ferrous metals at the two ends increasing. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are non - ferrous metals and black metals, while the relatively weak ones are energy and agricultural products [2]. - The overall signals of different commodities vary. For methanol, the comprehensive signal turns neutral; for float glass, the comprehensive signal is neutral; for iron ore, the comprehensive signal turns bearish; for Shanghai lead, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overall Situation - The divergence within the non - ferrous metals sector has increased. The time - series momentum factor of the non - ferrous metals sector remains high, but the position factors of varieties such as zinc and aluminum have declined, and the cross - sectional momentum divergence has expanded. The time - series momentum of the energy sector has dropped significantly [2]. Methanol - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.01%, the demand factor increased by 0.15%, the inventory factor rose by 0.12%, the spread factor weakened by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns neutral [4]. - Fundamental factors: The import arrival volume has increased significantly, making the supply side bearish; the capacity utilization rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; the inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises has continued to decrease, making the inventory side bullish; the methanol futures 9 - 1 spread and the import profit factor have both released bearish signals, making the spread side neutral [4]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.32%, the spread factor increased by 0.39%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The capacity utilization rate of float glass is flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the transaction volume of commercial housing in third - tier cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased, with the inventory side remaining bullish but the strength weakening; the spot price of the domestic float glass market has continuously released bearish signals, making the spread side bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal and pipeline gas has declined, but the factor contribution is low, making the profit side neutral [7]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: Last week, each factor remained unchanged. This week, the comprehensive signal turns bearish [7]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volumes at Rizhao Port and Tianjin Port have increased significantly, strengthening the bearish feedback on the supply side; the daily average consumption of steel enterprises has decreased, with the demand side turning to bearish feedback but the signal remaining neutral; the inventory of imported trade ore at ports has accumulated, strengthening the bearish feedback on the inventory side; the spot price center has risen, and the freight rate from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao has increased slightly, maintaining the bullish feedback on the spread side [7]. Shanghai Lead - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened and decreased by 0.23%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The price of SMM imported lead concentrates has gradually increased, making the supply side turn to bearish feedback; the LME inventory and SHFE futures warehouse receipts have both decreased, making the inventory side turn to bullish feedback; the average weekly near - far month spread of LME lead has expanded, making the spread side signal turn neutral [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the China Commodity Price Index has shown a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating optimistic expectations among enterprises and a stable recovery in the market [2] - In July, the overall Commodity Price Index reached 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1] - The black commodity price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - The agricultural price index fell to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, and the energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The chemical price index experienced a decline to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month, and the mineral price index continued to drop to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 32 saw price increases while 18 experienced price declines in July [1] Group 3 - The overall outlook for the commodity market is expected to remain stable and positive, supported by government policies aimed at economic recovery and growth [2] - There are still external uncertainties and instabilities affecting global commodity prices, and some industries face challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased operational pressures [2] - The commodity circulation industry plays a crucial role in stimulating domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting development [2]