Group 1 - The article emphasizes the potential for a market style shift in the fourth quarter, suggesting a reduction in positions within the technology growth sector and a shift towards broader indices and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][6] - The macro strategy team indicates that external short-term disturbances are expected to be less significant than in April, with positive signals anticipated from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][6] - The report notes an increase in market volatility and a tendency for profit-taking and portfolio adjustments following the release of favorable signals in October [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards large-cap stocks, with a preference for value over growth, while the volatility of large-cap stocks has increased [8][9] - The report highlights a decrease in the proportion of stocks rising within the market, alongside a decline in the concentration of trading among the top 100 stocks [8][9] - Market activity has shown increased volatility, with a mixed performance in turnover rates across different sectors [8][9] Group 3 - In the commodity market, trends for precious metals, energy, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products have strengthened, while the black metal sector has weakened [14][15] - The report indicates an increase in liquidity for precious metals, contrasting with a decline in liquidity for other sectors [14][15] Group 4 - The options market experienced heightened implied volatility due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a temporary spike in fear among investors [19] - The report notes that the indicators for the small-cap/growth style have not shown signs of improvement, despite previous strength [19] Group 5 - The convertible bond market adjusted in line with the stock market, maintaining stable conversion premiums, which suggests a good defensive characteristic compared to the stock market [22] - The report mentions a decline in pure bond premiums and a significant drop in market transaction volumes post-holiday [22]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economy showed a steady upward trend in the first three quarters of 2025. In the production industry, fixed - asset investment declined slightly, but equipment and tool purchase investment had double - digit growth, and high - end manufacturing investment was prominent. In the service industry, the real estate market showed signs of improvement, and shipping and aviation industries had changes in schedules and prices [1][2]. - Different sectors in the industry had various trends. Upstream industries like glass and some agricultural products had price changes; mid - stream industries such as chemical and energy sectors had fluctuations in开工率 and consumption; downstream industries like real estate and services also had different performance [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Production Industry - From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and a 0.07% decline in September compared to the previous month. Equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 14.0% year - on - year. In terms of industrial structure, the primary industry investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year, the secondary industry investment increased by 6.3%, with industrial investment up 6.4% and manufacturing investment up 4.0%. High - end manufacturing sectors like automobile manufacturing and railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing had significant investment growth of 19.2% and 22.3% respectively [1]. Service Industry - In September 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, and the number of cities with year - on - year increases in new - home prices rose. Some cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed positive trends in the real estate market. The 2025 winter - spring flight schedule was implemented from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with 1.0% and 1.8% declines in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Global shipping giants raised freight rates on multiple routes by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container from October 15 [2]. Industry Overview - Upstream - In the black industry, glass prices dropped significantly. In the agricultural industry, egg prices rose slightly, while pork prices declined [3]. Industry Overview - Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate remained stable at a high level, while the polyester and PTA operating rates were low. In the energy industry, power plant coal consumption decreased [4]. Industry Overview - Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline. In the service industry, the number of domestic flights increased slightly [5]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - On October 20, various commodities had different price changes. For example, in the agricultural sector, the spot price of eggs increased by 4.59% year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 4.11%. In the energy sector, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 2.97%, while the spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 2.30% [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to uncertainties such as Trump's trade policy, Sino - US trade negotiations, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical situations. The precious metals sector has strong potential, while other sectors have different trends [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance Review - The commodity market declined by 1.14% last week. Only the precious metals sector rose by 10.76%, while the non - ferrous, agricultural products, black, and energy - chemical sectors fell by 1.07%, 1.52%, 1.66%, and 3.43% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased with a narrowing margin, and the precious metals and energy - chemical sectors had significant volatility increases. The overall market scale increased, with only the non - ferrous sector having net capital outflows, mainly concentrated in Shanghai copper [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, gold, silver, and soybean No.1 had the highest gains of 10.9%, 10.53%, and 2.03% respectively, while glass, crude oil, and fuel oil had the largest declines of 9.28%, 6.34%, and 5.54% respectively [6]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors Precious Metals - The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations strengthens the sector's hedging properties. Powell's statement that balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months strengthens the expectation of monetary easing, leading to a significant rise in the sector. The actual overall position of gold is at a low level, with potential for further growth. Short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The Fed's October Beige Book shows weakening consumer spending and a labor shortage. Domestically, the economy continues to improve. The raw material supply is tight, and inventory increases, with overall supply and demand remaining relatively loose. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, waiting for a clear macro - environment [3]. Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar has recovered significantly after the holiday but is still weak year - on - year. Production continues to decline, and inventory has decreased. The high - level hot metal has slightly declined, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. With the contraction of steel mill profits, the pressure for steel mills to cut production increases, and the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthens. The price of coking coal may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with coking coal and coke relatively stronger [3]. Energy - Oil prices continued to decline last week. The US refinery utilization rate dropped sharply, causing crude oil inventory to increase by 352,400 barrels more than expected. The three major institutions' October reports raised the supply - demand surplus for this year and next year by 210,000 barrels per day and 460,000 barrels per day respectively. The easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and Sino - US trade games have increased market risk - aversion. Oil prices may continue to be weak in the short - term [3]. Chemicals - For polyester products, the industrial chain may continue to be weak due to weak oil prices and weakening demand expectations. For building materials, PVC domestic demand is stable, but exports face policy pressure, and cost support is not obvious. Glass has high intermediate inventory pressure and continues to be under pressure [4]. Agricultural Products - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, and China has not purchased US new - season soybeans, putting pressure on US soybean prices. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations do not improve, soybean meal may fluctuate downward. The pattern of strong oil and weak meal may continue [4]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had significant gains, with most having a weekly return rate of around 11%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 21.8244 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76%. The trading volume increased by 204.56%. Other commodity funds such as energy - chemical, agricultural product, and non - ferrous metal ETFs had different performance trends [38].

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].

Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic landscape shows distinct characteristics in consumption and industrial policy, with a shift towards rational travel decisions during the National Day holiday, as overall travel intensity was lower than during the May Day holiday [1][6] - The tourism market is evolving towards diversification and personalization, with traditional attractions losing some popularity while niche tourism options like "inter-provincial border tours" and "border tourism" are gaining traction [1][6] - The expansion of visa-free travel has stimulated outbound tourism, reflecting the release of domestic residents' international travel demand and the positive effects of national tourism opening policies [1][6] Foreign Macro - During the National Day holiday, the U.S. ADP employment and services PMI data were weaker than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [1][13] - The U.S. services PMI fell to 50, indicating a slowdown in business activity and new orders, which may impact global market sentiment [1][13] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and demand for risk hedging against the dollar [2][17] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of continued market easing following the initial interest rate cuts [2][17] Oil Market - International oil prices fluctuated during the holiday, ultimately stabilizing around pre-holiday levels, influenced by ongoing supply increases and insufficient demand [2][18] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day, reflecting a focus on maintaining market share amid competitive pressures [2][18] Film Industry - The National Day box office exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, with several films surpassing 100 million yuan in ticket sales, indicating a strong recovery in cultural consumption [8] - The diversity of content, including various genres, has driven demand, with family-oriented films performing particularly well [8] Industrial Policy - The release of growth stabilization plans by seven major industries before the holiday marks a significant shift towards quality and efficiency improvement rather than mere scale expansion [11] - The focus on supply-demand balance and the integration of artificial intelligence aligns with current technological trends, promoting high-end and intelligent industrial development [11] Overall Economic Outlook - The current domestic macroeconomic environment is characterized by structural optimization and diversified demand in consumption, alongside a commitment to high-quality development in industrial policy, which together create a favorable environment for economic growth [12][12] Key Commodity Trends - LME copper prices rose by 2.85% during the holiday, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and ongoing tightness in the copper market [19] - LME zinc prices increased by 3.7%, supported by declining inventories and stable processing fees [19] - LME aluminum prices continued to rise, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance and positive macro sentiment [20] Agricultural Products - U.S. cotton prices weakened during the holiday due to market information delays caused by the government shutdown, while domestic cotton prices face pressure from new crop expectations [21] - International sugar prices are expected to remain weak due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory levels [22] Shipping Industry - During the National Day holiday, shipping rates increased significantly, with major shipping lines raising prices for the second half of October [48] - The market is expected to enter a phase of competition for the year-end peak season, with attention on the impact of shipping rate adjustments [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic economic repair depends on the demand side, with potential incremental policies. Overseas, the US government shutdown increases market uncertainty, and the Fed's decision - making may be affected. The Japanese political situation also impacts the market [2]. - The RMB exchange rate needs continuous improvement in internal and external environments and policy signals for trend - like appreciation. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [4]. - A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after the holiday, with a likely structural market. Attention should be paid to multiple events in the future [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and it is advisable to enter long positions at low prices without chasing high [8]. - The shipping market is affected by the US policy on Chinese ships and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. The 10 - contract may decline, and other contracts are likely to oscillate [12]. - Precious metals are expected to remain strong, but there may be price adjustments. Any adjustment is a mid - to - long - term buying opportunity [13][14][15]. - Copper prices are driven up by supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, high - price industrial acceptance is a risk [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday, showing an oscillatory and strong pattern, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [18]. - For lithium carbonate, focus on downstream restocking. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [20][21]. - Steel products face de - stocking pressure, and the market is expected to be under pressure. Iron ore prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disturbances. Coal and coke prices' rebound depends on the steel market. Ferroalloys have prominent supply - demand contradictions [24][27][28]. - LPG is expected to run weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate weakly. Methanol supply pressure increases. PVC is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern. Pure benzene and styrene follow the cost decline. Fuel oil is expected to open flat, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower. Asphalt may open slightly lower, with a possible last - chance rise this year [30][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][44]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate weakly. Propylene prices rise slightly [45][47][48][49]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Oilseeds are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Oils may rebound after the holiday. Soybean prices are expected to decline. Cotton prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. Sugar prices may open high and go high in the short - term. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to be cautious. Apple prices may rise due to bad weather. Red dates may face downward pressure [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][66][68]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Key information includes the Fed's meeting minutes, the US government shutdown, the US budget deficit, and international political situations. Domestic economic repair focuses on the demand side, and overseas uncertainties increase [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the Fed's decision, the US government shutdown, and the Japanese political situation. Short - term strategies for enterprises are given [3][4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, A - shares were strong, and overseas stock indexes were also strong during the holiday. A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall, with attention on multiple events [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The Fed's internal differences and the US government shutdown are important information. The bond market rebounded before the holiday, and it is expected to oscillate after the holiday [8]. Container Shipping - Spot market prices are relatively stable. Global trade volume and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation are key factors. Short - term strategies for different contracts are provided [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices rose strongly during the holiday, driven by investment demand, inflation concerns, and the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to data release and the Fed's meeting [13][14]. - **Copper**: Prices rose during the holiday due to supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about industrial acceptance at high prices [16][17]. - **Nickel**: Prices were strong during the holiday, affected by Indonesian policies. It is expected to rise slightly after the holiday with limited upward momentum [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production and downstream restocking [20]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Inventory increased significantly during the holiday. The market faces de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase. The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to demand recovery and supply issues [25][26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply elasticity is limited, and the price is supported by winter storage. The rebound depends on the steel market. Strategies for different contracts are provided [28][29]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction, with high supply and weak demand [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Overseas prices were weak during the holiday. Supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter, and the demand requirement is higher [30]. - **PTA - PX**: It oscillates weakly with the cost side. The polyester season is not very strong, and PTA processing fees have limited expansion [33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: There is a marginal improvement in supply and demand, but the long - term inventory increase expectation makes it difficult to break through upward [34][35][36]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [37]. - **PVC**: There were few changes during the holiday. The market is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices follow the cost decline. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the supply of styrene will increase later. Consider widening the price spread [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to open flat, with a strong self - performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower, following the cost [41][42]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increases, and demand is affected by weather and funds. There may be a last - chance rise this year [43][44]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to oscillate weakly, with different influencing factors for each [45][47][48]. - **Propylene**: Prices rise slightly, with changes in supply and demand [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Prices declined during the holiday, in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Short at high prices [52][53]. - **Oilseeds**: Affected by Sino - US negotiations, with different trends in the internal and external markets. Strategies for contracts are provided [54][55]. - **Oils**: May rebound after the holiday, with different supply and demand situations for different oils [56][57][58]. - **Soybeans**: Prices are expected to decline, with attention on policy and market factors [59][60]. - **Cotton**: Prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds, with a focus on multiple factors [61][62]. - **Sugar**: Prices may open high and go high in the short - term, affected by production and disasters [63][64]. - **Eggs**: Prices were weak during the holiday, and it is advisable to be cautious or short far - month contracts [65]. - **Apples**: Prices may rise due to bad weather, with different price levels for good and poor - quality products [66][67]. - **Red Dates**: May face downward pressure, with attention on weather and inventory [68].

Demand and Price Trends - Total demand remains stable with no significant slowdown observed, indicating a gradual narrowing of economic fluctuations[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth is expected to continue rising due to low base effects, supporting profit margins[4] Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a broad-based economic recovery[6] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points but still within the expansion zone, reflecting overall stability in the service industry[7] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October is anticipated to provide investment guidance for related industries, particularly regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan"[11] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to face headwinds this year, influenced by stock market gains, tax adjustments, and potential inflationary pressures[14] - Long-term bond yields have recently risen, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level this year, indicating ongoing adjustments in the bond market[13] - The overall sentiment suggests that the bond market is still in a phase of adjustment, with upward risks to yields outweighing downward possibilities[14] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE inflation rate for August is reported at 2.7%, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[16] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September is at 52.0, down 1 percentage point, while the services PMI is at 52.9, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy despite slight declines[18] - Market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with projections indicating two rate cuts in 2025, occurring in October and December[19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Industry Overview Production Industry - The 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24th to 26th in Hangzhou with the theme of "Cloud-Intelligence Integration, Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis", featuring three main forums and over 110 aggregated topics focusing on AI, cloud computing, and industrial applications [1] Service Industry - At the press conference, the head of the central bank mentioned that the theme was about the mid - to long - term "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry without short - term policy adjustments; the head of the financial regulatory agency stated that the total assets of the banking and insurance industries exceeded 500 trillion yuan with an average growth of over 9% in five years; the head of the CSRC said that the market value of the A - share technology sector accounted for over 1/4, and the number of tech companies in the top 50 market - value companies increased from 18 to 24; the deputy head of the central bank and head of the SAFE mentioned that cross - border two - way investment and financing were active, with overseas institutions and individuals holding over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits by the end of July [2] Upstream - Black: Wire rod prices have rebounded [3] - Energy: Crude oil and natural gas prices have slightly declined [3] Midstream - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable at a medium level [4] - Agriculture: The production of pig products has increased [4] Downstream - Service: The number of domestic flights has increased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 2288.6 | -0.50% | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 7.8 | 1.56% | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 9372.0 | -0.30% | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 15242.2 | -0.09% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 19.6 | -1.61% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 80233.3 | -0.95% | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 21942.0 | -1.22% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 20826.7 | -1.09% | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 122750.0 | -0.81% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 17081.3 | 0.29% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3167.5 | 1.07% | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 807.4 | -0.06% | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3410.0 | 2.87% | | Building materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/22 | 14.3 | 2.14% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 14908.3 | -1.49% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 791.3 | -0.34% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 62.4 | -0.46% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 66.0 | -1.42% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3794.0 | -2.12% | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 784.0 | 1.16% | | Chemicals | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 4626.3 | -0.12% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 7386.7 | 0.11% | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1655.0 | -0.60% | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 133.3 | 1.86% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 114.8 | 1.48% | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 91.7 | -0.45% | [39]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the commodity industry. Core Viewpoint - In the context of positive liquidity, the commodity market may operate stably in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances persist, but the expectation of loose liquidity and peak demand season provides support [1]. Market Review Overall Market - Last week, the rise - fall ratio of the commodity market was basically flat compared to the previous week. The precious metals sector led the gain with 2.34%, followed by the non - ferrous metals with 0.35%. The energy - chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors declined by 1.26%, 0.65%, and 0.01% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were gold, silver, and aluminum with increases of 2.28%, 2.27%, and 2.05% respectively. The top - losers were natural rubber, palm oil, and asphalt, dropping 3.09%, 2.41%, and 2.01% respectively [1][5]. - The decline of the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to narrow. Most sectors saw a decrease in volatility. The overall market scale increased, with most of the capital inflow coming from the precious metals sector, while the scale of the black and agricultural products sectors decreased slightly [1]. Sub - sectors - **Precious Metals**: The increase in weekly initial jobless claims and cooling inflation data led the market to fully price in three Fed rate cuts this year. However, the sector showed signs of fatigue after continuous rises. Geopolitical disturbances may amplify short - term fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: A weaker dollar and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season provided support. Although the inventory inflection point was not clear, downstream consumption in the automotive and power industries was strong, and the sector may operate stably in the short term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. Blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot metal output increased significantly. However, low steel mill profits may limit further复产. The raw material market was volatile, and the cost increase supported the industry chain, but price contradictions intensified after the cost rebound [2]. - **Energy**: The IEA's September oil market report showed that the upward adjustment of the supply forecast was greater than that of the demand, increasing the market surplus. Geopolitical factors supported oil prices in the short term, but the mid - term surplus limited the geopolitical premium [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester, terminal weaving orders increased, and the textile and dyeing industry's operating rate rose slightly. However, high inventory and poor profits of polyester filaments led to slow load increases. The industry chain's valuation may recover relative to oil prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's September supply - demand report was neutral to bearish. U.S. soybeans rebounded after a brief correction and may continue to be strong in the short term. Palm oil was supported by the mid - term seasonal production cut cycle, long - term biodiesel policies, and aging trees, providing a floor for the oil market [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.3%. The total scale of gold ETFs increased by 1.36%, and the total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 1.41%. However, the trading volume of most gold ETFs decreased [35]. - The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.42%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 0.96%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 0.88%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81% [35][36].