商品日报 20250509 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美英达成有限贸易协议，市场风险偏好提振 海外方面，美英达成有限贸易协议：保留对英 10%的基准关税、扩大双方市场准入、取 消对英钢铝关税、对美农产品实行 0 关税、对英汽车进口实行阶梯关税；特朗普在新闻发布 会直呼"现在最好买入股票"，市场风险偏好显著回升，美股、加密货币反弹，美元指数站 稳 100 上方，美债利率上行至 4.37%，金价下跌超 1%，油价、铜价收涨。 国内方面，A 股缩量上涨，两市成交额回落至 1.32 万亿，创业板、小微盘股表现较优， 军工、光模块等板块领涨，上证指数已修复 4 月对等关税宣布来的跌幅，在二季度增量政策 已落地、中美贸易即将进入谈判期的背景下，关注资金的追涨意愿。债市方面，降准降息后 资金面显著转松，长短端利率均走低，利率曲线继续走陡，近期关注 4 月外贸数据、金融数 据及物价数据。 贵金属：经贸关系缓和，金价延续调整 周四国际贵金属期货双双收跌，COMEX ...

2025年05月09日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：库存小幅去化，绝对值偏高制约反弹 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势状态，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单注销，市场情绪进一步发酵 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）据 3 月 18 日钢联资讯，经过 1-2 月的减产，目前印尼 GNI 镍铁项目产线已逐步恢复，产能利用率 在 3 月内从三成增至五成，预计该工厂 3 月内产量增加约 0.2 万金属吨/月。4 月该工厂将继续提高产能 利用率，计划 4 月底实现正常生产状态。 2）印尼政府近期对非税国家收入提出相关调整建议，镍矿、镍铁、镍生铁和镍锍资源税率分别由 10%、 2%、5%和 2%提高至浮动区间 14%-19%、5%-7%、 ...

Group 1 - The "Qinghui Cup" Youth Forum organized by Beijing Antai Technology Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of academic research and innovative thinking in the context of the non-ferrous metals industry facing green transformation and global supply chain restructuring [1] - The report presented by Antai's youth analyst highlights that nickel resources are crucial for national economic development, with China being the largest nickel consumer but heavily reliant on imports, necessitating the expansion of domestic nickel resource acquisition channels [1] - Recommendations include increasing nickel resource reserves, optimizing overseas resource layouts, enhancing diplomatic and security measures, and improving technological innovation and resource utilization efficiency [1] Group 2 - The report on polysilicon futures indicates that the futures will be launched on December 26, 2024, with delivery starting on April 1, 2025, and estimates the deliverable standard product quantity for 2025 to be between 297,510 tons and 545,880 tons [2] - Considering the conservative attitude of enterprises towards futures trading, the estimated deliverable quantity may decrease to 68,207 tons, representing approximately 4.10% of the national total production [2] Group 3 - The analysis of the Indonesian market for investment in alumina and bauxite highlights the rapid development of the aluminum industry in Indonesia, with rich bauxite reserves and competitive alumina costs [3] - The Indonesian government's improved foreign investment incentives and the presence of Chinese enterprises in the region indicate potential investment opportunities, although challenges such as competition for quality mineral sources and infrastructure deficiencies exist [3] - A comprehensive industrial chain layout, including alumina plants and smelting projects, is necessary for successful investment in Indonesia, rather than merely exporting raw materials [3]

国泰海通晨报 3、基金评价，基金评价团队认为，《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》突出强化公募基金与投 资者的利益绑定，从管理费收取机制、考核、跟投产品要求等几个方面规范行业业态，突出高质 量发展，提升服务投资者的能力，突出发展壮大权益类基金的工作导向。 4、有色，有色团队认为，华友钴业多地产能稳步落地释放，钴价上扬有望助推 2025 年业绩。公 司发布未来三年股东分红回报规划，在满足现金分红的条件下，公司每连续三年以现金方式累计 分配的利润不少于该三年实现的年均可分配利润的 30%，并根据公司发展阶段设定每次最低分配 比例，有望充分保障股东权益。 5、电新，电新团队认为，外骨骼机器人是人类智能与外部机械动力装置融合典范，应用场景多 元。 近年来利好政策不断，多地已将外骨骼治疗纳入医保。当前多个国产品牌相继发布消费级 外骨骼产品，消费级外骨骼机器人市场将迎来快速发展。推荐标的祥鑫科技，科达利，亿纬锂能。 6、政策，政策团队认为，上海坚持以制度创新破局：围绕"政策供给—要素配置—生态培育"打 造新质生产力培育的制度保障体系，为现代化产业体系建设注入新动能、新优势。上海国际金融 中心和科创中心联动发展，实现"科技— ...

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美谈判略有进展 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续下降，限制价格回落 | 5 | | 铝：价格承压 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续磨底 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 10 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 11 | | 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势 | 15 | | 多晶硅：盘面再创上市新低 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：成本重心延续下移，累库格局制约反弹 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震 ...

PNBP在产业链条中仅征收一次，鉴于PNBP新政策执行对象为采矿许可证持有人，而多数冶炼厂和贸易公司 并不持有采矿许可证，因此该政策主要影响镍矿商的生产成本，进而传导至下游。依据5月第一期印尼镍矿 内贸基准价，矿企需要多缴纳税费约1.2美元/湿吨，镍铁及冰镍生产成本上涨10~15元/吨，湿法中间品MHP 生产成本不受影响，3月以来市场对该政策已经充分计价。 成本支撑犹存 镍矿方面，由于降雨天气仍然对矿区造成影响，印尼镍矿现货供应偏紧，加上镍矿商挺价情绪较浓，印尼镍 矿内贸价格较为坚挺，1.6%~1.8%品位的镍矿价格为53.61~60.45美元/湿吨，为镍价提供底部支撑。中间品方 面，3月底MHP大规模集中检修，预计3—5月期间总计减产幅度将达到1万镍金属吨，而3月高冰镍产线在高 利润驱动下约有2万金属吨/月的产能转产镍铁，因此MHP及高冰镍现货供应相对偏紧，其港口价格分别上涨 至13047美元/金属吨和13588美元/金属吨。数据显示，截至4月底，MHP一体化生产精炼镍的成本为107318 元/吨，高冰镍一体化生产精炼镍工艺的成本为127268元/吨。笔者认为，在MHP投产不及预期、供应未能大 量释放的情况 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/7 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公司 ...

日期 2025 年 5 月 7 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 行业 镍日报 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 镍观点： 五一假期期间伦镍走势先抑后扬，主要受到宏观因素影响，美国公布 GDP 数 据出现萎缩引发市场悲观情绪，随后非农就业数据发布悲观氛围缓解伦镍止跌反 弹，节后首日沪镍在有色金属当中表现偏强，日内低开高走，收盘报 124630，涨 幅 0.48%，指数总持仓减少 1617 至 155125 手。现货市场表现一般，升贴水总体 保持稳定，日内金川升水持平 2250 元/吨，俄镍升水报 100。基本面上，受益于 印尼 PNBP 上调特许权使用费政策支撑，印尼内贸镍矿升水暂维持高位，虽 5 月镍 矿 HPM 或小幅下调，但后续仍易涨难跌；硫酸镍方面，印尼 ...

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,570 yuan/ton and closed at 124,630 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 101,917 lots, and the open interest was 67,940 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, closing with a small yang - yin line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line before the holiday. The spot market of electrolytic nickel had sluggish trading recently. Attention should be paid to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 450 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased slightly. After the holiday, the purchasing intention of downstream customers recovered, and merchants also had a certain intention to replenish stocks. The overall performance of refined nickel spot trading was okay, and the premium was basically stable compared to before the holiday, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,125 (- 183.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 (- 336) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Variety Strategy - Recently, the premium of refined nickel spot has been slowly declining, and the support of the premium has weakened. Coupled with the top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,680 yuan/ton and closed at 12,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,113 lots, and the open interest was 89,353 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel mainly fluctuated throughout the day, showing a slightly stronger trend in the afternoon, closing with a small yang line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly, and there was still short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted prices unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the weak market, market confidence was still low. Some downstream enterprises made low - price restocking actions, and most spot merchants maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was flat compared to the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 415 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 9.50 yuan/nickel point to 959.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has been continuously weakening. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side operation is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. congressional action aims to impose sanctions on countries that restrict rare earth exports, indicating a shift towards aggressive legislative measures to control global resource distribution [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Actions and Implications - The new legislation grants the U.S. more tools to intervene and potentially punish countries or companies that do not align with its interests, creating significant uncertainty in the global supply chain [5]. - This move reflects the U.S.'s urgency to secure its position in critical industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and military materials, all of which rely heavily on rare earth elements [3][5]. Group 2: Global Resource Dynamics - The uneven global distribution of rare earth resources complicates the U.S.'s ability to control exports from other nations, as many countries view resource management as a matter of national sovereignty [3][5]. - The legislation could lead to a backlash from resource-rich countries, as it challenges their rights to manage their own resources, potentially destabilizing international trade relations [5][9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Countries, particularly resource-rich ones like China, are likely to respond by reinforcing their own export controls and optimizing their resource management strategies, reflecting a broader struggle for global influence [5][7]. - The situation emphasizes the need for countries to balance protecting their strategic interests while maintaining stable supply chains, indicating a complex interplay of economic and political factors [7][9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The effectiveness of the U.S. legislation remains uncertain, as it may provoke resistance from other nations and complicate the global resource market, highlighting the challenges of unilateral actions [5][10]. - The next steps for the global community will be crucial, as countries must decide whether to compromise or strengthen cooperation against perceived unilateral dominance [9].