运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/07 | -161.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 场预期，带动商品价格走强。锰矿方面，康密劳公布 2025 年 6 月对华加蓬块报报价 4.4 美元/吨度，环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.4 美元/吨度；联合矿业(CML)公布 2025 年 6 月对华报价出台，Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%澳块报 4.7 | | | | 美元/吨度，环比上月下跌 0.4 美元/吨度，锰矿成本支撑有限。综合来看，短期宏观情绪叠加市场消息刺 | | | | 激带动下，预计短期锰硅期价上方仍有一定空间，但幅度不看太高，后续持续关注宏观及减产情况。 | | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5636 元/吨，环比上涨 1.55%，主力合约持仓环比增加 21649 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5550 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日上涨 50 元/吨。昨日大宗商品多数走强， | | | | 黑色板块整体偏强，硅铁期价重心随之上移。宏观情绪刺激叠加主产区减产消息，带动硅铁价格上涨。昨 | | | 硅铁 | 日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，谈判效果超出市场预期， ...

Q&A 中美日内瓦贸易谈判结果对市场的影响如何？ 中美日内瓦贸易谈判结果超出预期，达成了较低的税率协议。这一结果对于短 期出口将带来明显的回补效应，有助于维持一季度以来的出口韧性。此前，我 们在上周五进行的一次出口企业调研中了解到，在 50%左右的综合税率下，贸 易往来仍能进行，只是需要牺牲一定利润。而当前豁免期内综合税率在 50%或 略低，这意味着出口量不会受到显著冲击，尽管利润可能会有所折扣。 从 4 月 2 日以来，中国经历了一个 V 型过程，通过高关税压力测试，中国出口表现出 了韧性。中美之间直接贸易下降幅度仅为 20%-30%，远低于预期中的 70%- 80%。这表明中国在面对高关税时表现良好，从而降低了尾部风险。即便未来 关税政策反复无常，下行风险也变得更可控。 此外，中国出台了一些政策，尽 管力度不大，但显示出底线思维，对市场信心有所提振。在这种环境下，股市 作为最突出的风险资产受益最大，中证 1,000 等成长板块值得继续推荐。 弘则研究 日内瓦经贸谈判超预期利好，关税休战后的大类 资产展望 20250512 摘要 • 中国出口展现韧性，通过高关税压力测试，中美直接贸易降幅远低于预期， 降低了 ...

有色方面，铜价受宏观预期影响大幅波动，但基本面数据仍有韧性，在高供给下，铜、铝的社会库存仍 延续去化，铜、铝材加工率等指标也显示当前下游需求较为稳健，4月铝材出口展现超预期韧性。原料 端氧化铝持续宽松，但铜矿TC仍在下降，显示铜矿供应仍较为紧张。有色需求即将步入淡季，铜终端 产品与铝材出口的持续性也有待观察。 具体来看，中金大宗商品团队认为，原油市场方面，石油市场或将进入现货基本面转向宽松的预期验证 阶段。该团队指出，4月以来，原油期货的远期曲线呈现并不常见的"微笑"形态，即前端近月升水、而 后端远月升水。这背后或反映石油市场的近远端基本面预期出现分歧。现货市场上，OPEC+虽于4月开 启增产周期，但实际产量不升反降，关税对于油品消费的影响也暂未显现，原油库存延续偏低路径。远 期预期上，贸易摩擦和地缘局势不确定性仍在，OPEC+在政治和地缘等外生因素的影响下计划连续2个 月提速增产，加重市场对远期过剩的担忧。 但是中金大宗商品团队也表示，往前看，维持年内油价下方空间或已有限的判断。当前油价水平或已触 发边际生产者的成本挑战，美国石油活跃钻机数仍在继续下降，且今年全球海上产出增量可能再次不及 预期，非OPEC+ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hangzhou Steel Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the latest quarterly report, indicating potential challenges in its financial performance [1] - As of May 12, 2025, Hangzhou Steel's stock closed at 11.07 yuan, with a 1.28% increase and a trading volume of 146.14 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 1.602 billion yuan [1] - The company's latest quarterly report shows total operating revenue of 14.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 34.9958 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 202.49% [1] Group 2 - The company has a current ratio of 1.373, a quick ratio of 0.917, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.42%, indicating its liquidity and financial stability [1] - Hangzhou Steel has made investments in 12 enterprises and participated in 825 bidding projects, showcasing its active engagement in the market [2] - The company holds 1 trademark and 4 patents, along with 18 administrative licenses, reflecting its intellectual property and regulatory compliance [2]

2025年05月12日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 期货研究 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 上周五贵金属价格震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价上涨 0.57%，收于 3324 美元/盎司。 | | 属 | 【消息面】多位美联储官员强调控制通胀预期的重要性，认为贸易政策不确定性或使利率保持在高位更长时 | | | 间；中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；日本首相石破茂重申"零关税"，要求美国全面 | | | 取消汽车关税；印巴双方宣布停火后不久，印控克什米尔地区再次传出爆炸声。印度指巴基斯坦违反停火协 | | | 议，巴方否认。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 中国 4 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%、与上月持平，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 2.7%；中国 4 月按美元计出口同比增长 8.1%， | | | 进口下降 0.2%；铜矿砂及其精矿进口量同比增 24%，原油进口增 7%，大豆进口减少 29%。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日继续流入 1 吨左右，COMEX 黄金库存 121 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 12 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/5/12 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 纯碱 | 尿素 | 燃油 | | | | | 氧化铝 | 烧碱 | 铝 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 玻璃 | 沥青 | PTA | | | | | 豆粕 | 棉纱 | 短纤 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 棕榈油 | 白糖 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉花 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 客服电话： | | 工业硅 | 中证500股指期货 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 焦炭 | 多晶硅 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 甲醇 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | | 焦煤 | 苹果 | ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI remaining stable [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by a recovery in food prices and travel service prices, with food prices up 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points [2] - The decline in CPI year-on-year was primarily influenced by a 4.8% drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices down 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening compared to the previous month [1][3] - The Producer Purchase Price Index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, indicating increased price pressure in upstream materials due to external demand shocks [3] - Specific sectors such as coal mining and black metal mining continued to see price declines, while non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight increase [3] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The government has intensified macro policies to promote consumption, leading to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in narrowed price declines [4] - High-tech industries are experiencing price increases, with wearable device manufacturing prices up 3.0% and aircraft manufacturing prices up 1.3% [4] - Analysts expect CPI to maintain a moderate trend due to domestic policy shifts towards expanding demand, while PPI may still face downward pressure amid various influencing factors [5]

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) changed from a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [1][2] - The year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the core CPI showing a stable increase of 0.5% [2][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable increases in beef (3.9%), marine fish (2.6%), and fresh fruits (2.2%), while fresh vegetables and pork prices fell by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively [2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with some industrial prices showing positive trends [4] - The decline in PPI is attributed to international input factors and seasonal decreases in domestic energy prices [6][7] - Certain industries, such as high-tech sectors, are experiencing price increases due to improved supply-demand relationships and policy support for consumption [4][5] Group 3: Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is actively promoting consumption and implementing macroeconomic policies to stabilize and improve price levels [4][6] - The international trade environment and the diversification of trade are contributing to price increases in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing [5] - The overall economic recovery and demand rebound are expected to continue influencing price stabilization efforts [6]