Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On March 24, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose, with IF up 1.4%, IH up 1.49%, IC up 2.42%, and IM up 2.85%. The total trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 39,333, 19,258, 22,348, and 32,679 lots respectively. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 12,902, 9,026, 4,523, and 5,904 lots respectively. The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. A-shares rebounded strongly, with over 5,100 stocks rising. The Hong Kong stock market also rebounded significantly [1][2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2604 was 4,449.4, up 1.40%, with a basis of -25.32, a trading volume of 35,281 lots (down 9,716 lots), and an open interest of 55,538 lots (down 2,490 lots). Other contracts also had corresponding price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2604 was 2,826.2, up 1.49%, with a basis of -4.65, a trading volume of 16,671 lots (down 5,486 lots), and an open interest of 22,685 lots (down 3,481 lots). Other contracts also had corresponding price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2604 was 7,554.8, up 2.42%, with a basis of -42.57, a trading volume of 49,931 lots (down 5,963 lots), and an open interest of 65,970 lots (up 1,007 lots). Other contracts also had corresponding price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2604 was 7,552.6, up 2.85%, with a basis of -48.26, a trading volume of 69,285 lots (down 10,503 lots), and an open interest of 92,698 lots (up 1,532 lots). Other contracts also had corresponding price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [1]. 2. Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures decreased, with IF, IH, IC, and IM decreasing by 39,333, 19,258, 22,348, and 32,679 lots respectively. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 12,902, 9,026, 4,523, and 5,904 lots respectively [2]. 3. Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts at different time points from February 26 to March 24 is presented graphically [4]. 4. Top 20 Member Positions Changes - For IF contracts, the long positions of IF2604 decreased by 1,759 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,210 lots. For other contracts, there were corresponding long and short position changes [5]. - For IH contracts, the long positions of IH2604 decreased by 3,320 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,288 lots. For other contracts, there were corresponding long and short position changes [5]. - For IC contracts, the long positions of IC2604 increased by 1,642 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,936 lots. For other contracts, there were corresponding long and short position changes [5]. - For IM contracts, the long positions of IM2604 increased by 1,636 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,748 lots. For other contracts, there were corresponding long and short position changes [5]. 5. Market Trends and Driving Factors - **A-shares**: A-shares rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.78% to 3,881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.43%, the ChiNext Index up 0.5%, the North Star 50 up 1.94%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 up 2.33%, the Wind All A up 2.11%, the Wind A500 up 1.34%, and the CSI A500 up 1.38%. The daily trading volume was 2.1 trillion yuan, compared with 2.45 trillion yuan the previous day. Military stocks soared due to global instability, green power concept stocks were active, and some technology growth stocks and shipping stocks were strong, while the oil and gas sector declined [6]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 2.79% to 25,063.71 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.51% to 4,830.89 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.31% to 8,499.53 points. The daily trading volume was HK$303.073 billion, down from the previous trading day [7]. 6. International News - An Israeli official said on March 24 that the possibility of the US and Iran reaching an agreement was "extremely slim" due to differences in requirements from both sides [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. The conflict has led to fluctuations in risk preferences, inflation expectations, and interest - rate expectations. For example, the conflict has caused oil price volatility, which in turn affects inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate adjustment expectations have also changed [4][7][9]. - Different industries and asset classes show different responses to the geopolitical situation. Some industries are under pressure due to inflation and supply - side disruptions, while others may find support from certain factors such as cost increases or demand recovery [12][14][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Events such as Iran charging tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Japan's adjustment of Sino - Japanese relations, and changes in the eurozone's PMI have an impact on the market. The central bank conducts MLF operations and a company signs a large - scale procurement contract [2]. - **Strategy View**: The US - Iran conflict disturbs global risk preferences, and the hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond contracts show different changes. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses concerns about the Middle East conflict, and Japan's inflation data shows a slowdown [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in the first two months of the year have improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to concerns about imported inflation, and the bond market is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in both domestic and international markets show an upward trend. The US PMI data and Turkey's plan to use gold reserves to stabilize the exchange rate are also important factors [8]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum, but in the short term, precious metals still face valuation pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price fluctuates due to the uncertainty in the Middle East. The LME inventory increases, and the domestic spot market shows different trends [11]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the supply of copper raw materials is still tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rises as the market expects the US and Iran to negotiate. The inventory and spot price show certain changes [13]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive the inventory to decrease. The aluminum price is supported by fundamentals [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price shows a rising trend, and the inventory and basis data are provided [15]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rises slightly, and relevant inventory and basis data are presented [17]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The downstream buying and low - level operation of recycling smelting enterprises support the spot price, but the high oil price and other factors may also lead to short - term downward pressure [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rises slightly, and the cost and price of related products are stable [18]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the nickel price may be under pressure, but in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to use a high - selling and low - buying strategy [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rises significantly, and the inventory decreases. The supply and demand sides show different trends [19]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand shows a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weak, but the downstream restocking provides short - term support [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises, and the futures contract price also shows an upward trend [21]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the downstream restocking provides support. Attention should be paid to changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price falls, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of alumina may be tightened in the short term, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rises, and the inventory and spot price show certain changes [25]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's RKAB application approval [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rebounds, and relevant trading volume and inventory data are provided [26]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is supported in the short term [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show a downward trend, and the inventory and spot price data are provided [29]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate data is weak, and the demand for steel is limited. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [31]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The iron ore price oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to risk control [32][33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fall, and relevant spot price and basis data are provided [34]. - **Strategy View**: The market has shifted to price and trade stagflation and recession. The black sector may face less pressure, and the coking coal price may be supported in the short term, but the fundamentals for a significant rebound are insufficient. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price falls, and relevant inventory and position data are provided [37]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is under high - inventory pressure and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release of demand and inventory changes [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price falls, and relevant inventory and position data are provided [39]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fall, and relevant spot price and basis data are provided [40]. - **Strategy View**: The market has shifted to price and trade stagflation and recession. The black sector may face less pressure. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [42][43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rises slightly, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [44]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of industrial silicon is gradually increasing, and the demand improvement is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and the cost provides support [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price rises slightly, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [46]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to oscillate and find the bottom [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price shows different trends due to different factors. The开工 rate of tire enterprises and inventory data are provided [49][50]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and conduct short - term trading. Options and hedging strategies are also provided [52][53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price falls, and the prices of related refined oil products also decline [54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish strategies for crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price changes, and the MTO profit also changes [56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price shows different trends in different regions, and the futures price rises [58]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell urea. When the substitution valuation reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene show different trends, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [60]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the large fluctuations in the disk affected by geopolitical factors [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price falls, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [62]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to rise in the short term, but attention should be paid to risks [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [64][65]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market is expected to see a decline in supply and an increase in demand, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and it is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [70][71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [74]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price falls, and the supply and demand situation is not ideal [77]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is in the concentrated realization period, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price is mostly stable, and the supply and demand situation is normal [79]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price may be strong, but the long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The planting area of soybeans and corn in the US is expected to increase, and relevant export and inventory data are provided [81]. - **Strategy View**: The March USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of the geopolitical crisis [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia may tighten palm oil exports, and relevant production, export, and inventory data of palm oil are provided [84]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term oil price is driven by the geopolitical crisis, and the medium - term outlook for oils and fats is bullish [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The import volume of sugar in China increases, and the production and inventory data of sugar in different countries are provided [86]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar price may have room for rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn in China increases, and relevant production, export, and inventory data of cotton are provided [89]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term impact of the new import quota is negative for Zhengzhou cotton, but the medium - term outlook is positive. It is recommended to buy on dips [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current geopolitical conflict has become the core focus of the market, and the gold price is significantly affected by news. With Trump's softened attitude, oil prices have slightly declined, alleviating market concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Fed to some extent. If the geopolitical conflict eases in the future, the pressure on the global economy from high energy prices and supply - chain disruptions will gradually ease, and the probability of central banks raising interest rates will decrease, and gold is expected to regain its upward momentum. However, the inflation expectation caused by high oil prices has not been alleviated, and the Fed has no clear data to support the decline in inflation in the short term. Coupled with the cautious statements of central banks, precious metals still face valuation pressure in the short term. The strategy suggests a cautious bearish view, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 920 - 1050 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 14,500 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.37% to 982.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 17,245.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 1.82% to 4482.50 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 3.04% to 71.69 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.39%, and the US dollar index was 99.20 [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in March was 52.4, higher than expected and the previous value, indicating an accelerated expansion of the manufacturing industry; the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.1, lower than expected and down from the previous value [2] - The Turkish central bank is discussing a gold - for - foreign - exchange swap transaction in the London market, planning to use about 135 billion US dollars of gold reserves to stabilize the pressured lira exchange rate [2] - The US proposed a 15 - clause conflict resolution plan to Iran through Pakistan, asking Iran to dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities, abandon nuclear weapons development, ban domestic uranium enrichment, hand over 60% of highly enriched uranium, dismantle key nuclear facilities, and accept full - scale IAEA inspections, stop supporting regional armed forces, limit ballistic missile projects, and ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, the US promised to fully lift sanctions on Iran, support Iran's civilian nuclear development, and cancel the "snap - back sanctions" mechanism. The US also plans to propose a one - month cease - fire to promote negotiations, and this plan has been confirmed by Israeli sources [3] 3.2 Strategy Suggestion - Adopt a cautious bearish strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 920 - 1050 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 14,500 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Data Summary - **Gold Data**: For COMEX gold, the closing price of the active contract was 4474.90 US dollars/ounce (up 1.46% from the previous day), the trading volume was 206,800 lots (down 47.30% from the previous day), the position was 411,400 lots (down 0.62% from the previous day), and the inventory was not available. For LBMA gold, the closing price was 4466.25 US dollars/ounce (down 2.11% from the previous day). For SHFE gold, the closing price of the active contract was 977.28 yuan/gram (up 3.97% from the previous day), the trading volume was 736,500 lots (down 13.82% from the previous day), the position was 292,700 lots (down 0.12% from the previous day), the inventory was 106.74 tons (down 0.00% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 45.774 billion yuan (up 3.84% from the previous day). For AuT + D, the trading volume was 87.88 tons (down 15.80% from the previous day), and the position was 243.03 tons (up 0.64% from the previous day) [6] - **Silver Data**: For COMEX silver, the closing price of the active contract was 71.45 US dollars/ounce (up 3.07% from the previous day), the position was 114,800 lots (down 0.61% from the previous day), and the inventory was not available. For LBMA silver, the closing price was 67.23 US dollars/ounce (down 7.10% from the previous day). For SHFE silver, the closing price of the active contract was 17,085.00 yuan/kilogram (up 10.86% from the previous day), the trading volume was 1,943,200 lots (down 4.10% from the previous day), the position was 441,900 lots (down 3.08% from the previous day), the inventory was 365.92 tons (up 0.38% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 20.385 billion yuan (up 7.44% from the previous day). For AgT + D, the trading volume was 534.27 tons (up 11.58% from the previous day), and the position was 2,912.056 tons (down 0.15% from the previous day) [6] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: SPDR US: The closing price was 404.13 US dollars (up 0.02% from the previous day), the holding was 1052.99 tons (up 0.03% from the previous day), the settled funds were 149.374 billion US dollars (down 1.15% from the previous day), and the trading volume was 16.7439 million shares (down 54.50% from the previous day). iShare US: The holding was 474.31 tons (down 0.33% from the previous day). GBS UK, PHAU UK, GOLD UK, and SGBS Switzerland had no change in holdings [65] - **Silver ETFs**: SLV US: The closing price was 62.95 US dollars (up 0.77% from the previous day), the holding was 15,513.67 tons (no change from the previous day), the settled funds were 34.886 billion US dollars (up 4.08% from the previous day), and the trading volume was 45.1195 million shares (down 37.71% from the previous day). ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada had no change in holdings [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is influenced by expectations of a "ceasefire" between the US and Iran, along with central bank liquidity measures, leading to fluctuations in oil and gold prices [1][10] - The US has proposed a 15-point negotiation plan to Iran, which includes dismantling nuclear capabilities and halting missile programs, in exchange for lifting sanctions [4][10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that the current Middle East crisis is more severe than the oil crises of the 1970s, impacting energy prices significantly [1][10] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent crude falling below $100 per barrel, while gold prices rebounded after a nine-day decline, reaching $4475 [1][10] - Copper prices increased by 0.68% due to tight supply conditions, although the overall demand remains weak in sectors like automotive and real estate [2][16] - The aluminum market is facing supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, with significant production cuts announced by major aluminum producers [18] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - US stock indices experienced slight declines, with market sentiment affected by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and rising inflation expectations due to high oil prices [2][7] - The financing balance in China decreased by 115.10 billion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period [2][7] - The central bank in China is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including MLF operations, to support the economy [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the provided content [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation which lacks clear meaning [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★★★, indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The research focuses on the market conditions and trends of various non - ferrous metals, analyzing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and geopolitical events, and providing corresponding price trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper decreased in volume and closed with a negative candle, and overnight copper prices rebounded with Trump's unilateral release of US - Iran negotiation news. This week, key indicators are limited, and attention should be paid to whether a preliminary passage agreement can be reached after the one - month stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in copper prices attracted mid - and downstream buyers, and some refined copper rod enterprises actively replenished stocks. In the short - and medium - term critical period of the war game, if an effective directional agreement is temporarily reached, the short - term market fluctuations may be similar to the impact of reciprocal tariffs last year. Technically, the strong support for copper prices is first at 91,000, and attention should also be paid to the MA40 weekly moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 140 yuan, 170 yuan, and 170 yuan respectively. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased slightly compared with last Thursday. As the aluminum price fell, the inventory and spot market feedback improved. Attention should be paid to whether this can be sustained. High energy prices suppress the economic outlook and interest rate path, and market sentiment fluctuates with war news. Shanghai aluminum should pay attention to the key support at 23,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 1,000 yuan under the swinging macro - sentiment. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. However, two alumina plants in Guangxi are about to enter the trial production stage, and imported supplies will also increase, so the surplus prospect remains unchanged. In the short term, alumina oscillates and waits for the guidance of Guinea's mining policy [3] Zinc - Trump announced the postponement of the strike on Iranian power plants and set a 5 - day negotiation period. The market saw a "TACO" again, and zinc prices rebounded following the non - ferrous metal sector. However, there are still concerns about the marginal tightening of liquidity. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 30%. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots exceeded 250,000 tons, and Shanghai zinc is in an overall surplus and pressured state. Overseas mines are tight and energy prices are high, so the production increase space of zinc ingots is limited, and the supply - side pressure is mainly in the domestic market. Without a significant rebound in TC, the smelting cost line of domestic smelters will still provide strong support for the disk. Demand is gradually showing peak - season characteristics, and Shanghai zinc is expected to gradually enter a range consolidation, with the price range temporarily at 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - Overseas aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and domestic aluminum ingots are still in the stage of price - cut destocking. The surplus dominates the weak operation of lead prices. Against the background of high by - product prices, the comprehensive cost of primary aluminum smelters is low, and the center of the disk is under pressure. The profit of recycled aluminum is not good, and some smelters still reduce production or postpone resuming production. Shanghai aluminum has strong support at the 16,200 yuan/ton line. However, the import profit is good, overseas low - cost crude aluminum is supplemented to the domestic market, and the price of waste batteries is hard to rise significantly. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated, market trading declined, and positions slowly recovered. The strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season is lower than expected, and downstream only replenishes stocks for rigid needs, with light trading. Due to macro uncertainties, the futures oscillate weakly and are difficult to drive the spot market. Although the social inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level and the destocking is slow; steel mills maintain high production schedules, and the supply pressure is large. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan, the discount of imported nickel is 150 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron per unit has dropped nearly 10 yuan, closing at 1,086.5 yuan per unit. The rebound of upstream prices continues to push up the mid - stream prices and form cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. Nickel and stainless steel have high inventories, and attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, with an overall tendency to weak oscillation [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in volume and oscillated during the session. The short - term trading rhythm is guided by the stock market, and the core of the market is still the Middle East war situation. On the supply side, China's imports of tin concentrates in the first two months have improved significantly year - on - year, and the production of tin concentrates in major producing countries has been continuously stable. The mainstream quotes of domestic tin concentrates from third - party sources have gradually recovered. On this basis, it is generally expected that the domestic refined tin production will return to normal levels in March. On the consumption side, as the tin price falls, it boosts the domestic replenishment willingness, and the Middle East war situation has a certain impact on the normal production of the low - and medium - end integrated circuit industry chain in Southeast Asia. The tin market may be strong domestically and weak overseas, and in terms of trend, the price may still seek support at the 300,000 integer mark and the medium - and long - term weekly K - line moving average. Mid - and downstream enterprises should make rigid purchases at the right time, and the 2605 option can appropriately focus on the direction of selling out - of - the - money put options [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates strongly, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 100 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 300 tons to 16,600 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 500 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 36,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to downstream. From the perspective of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level at the beginning of March. The weekly production has continuously reached new highs, waiting for the inflection point of inventory. The latest quote of Australian ore is 2,045 US dollars, and the ore - end quote has loosened. Technically, the lithium market is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the upward momentum has weakened; the spot silicon price in East China remained stable compared with yesterday. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate in Xinjiang has remained stable, and leading enterprises have no new production plans; there is also no large - scale resumption of production willingness in Yunnan and Sichuan production areas, and the overall supply side is relatively stable. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon is flat, the price has dropped significantly, the industry is in the loss range, and with the expectation of the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy in April, the export orders of organic silicon may weaken periodically, and the overall downstream demand is weak. In general, the current industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory continues to run at a high level, maintaining fluctuations around 550,000 tons. It is expected that the silicon price will continue to oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to run weakly, closing at 35,730 yuan/ton. On the demand side, affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate, coupled with the limited large - scale start of domestic demand, the component production schedule in April is expected to be lowered, and the component inventory in March has increased significantly compared with last month, providing weak support for upstream raw materials. In the spot market, the polysilicon quote continued to be lowered. The SMM's N - type dense material quote is 40,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. Recently, the sales volume of spot enterprises has increased, driving the inventory to decline marginally. The futures price has approached 35,000 yuan/ton, and according to the public cost calculation, it is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises. Although the medium - term trend is still bearish, the short - term downward space is limited [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: Not clearly defined [1] - Soybean Oil: Not clearly defined [1] - Palm Oil: Not clearly defined [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined [1] - Soybean Meal: Not clearly defined [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, energy prices, fertilizer supply, and climate. There are uncertainties in the supply chain of agricultural products, and investors need to pay attention to various risk factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, the price of bean No.1 futures is mainly in a callback, and the price of live pigs is difficult to reverse in the medium - term, while the price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen [2][8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean No.1 - The main contract of bean No.1 futures reduced positions, and the price mainly declined. The market is affected by factors such as the decline of crude oil prices, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the cost of new - season crops [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Trump's statement indicates that the relationship between the US and Iran may ease, and the prices of agricultural products affected by fertilizer prices and international freight have weakened. The 2605 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange reduced more than 80,000 lots and fell 1.6%. Brazil's soybean harvest rate is lower than last year, and the export plan to China is still at a high level. The shipment volume of US soybeans to China decreased. Multiple factors affect the market, and uncertainties are increasing [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Crude oil prices dropped significantly, and the global financial market fluctuated sharply. The price difference between vegetable oil and petro - diesel continued to decline, which was beneficial for the marginal improvement of biodiesel. The prices of natural gas in Asia and Europe were strong, and new - season crops faced the risks of fertilizer supply interruption and cost increase. The market expected a higher probability of planting more soybeans and less corn, but it needed to be verified. The market is affected by both inflation and recession logics [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The prices of rapeseed products followed the market decline. The statements of the US and Iran will affect the pricing of geopolitical factors in the oilseed market. The inventory and operating rate of coastal rapeseed oil mills are low, but the supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be boosted seasonally, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] 3.5 Corn - The prices of corn in some ports in the north increased slightly, while the prices in Shandong decreased. The increase in the auction volume of state - supported wheat and the opening of enterprise qualification may impact the corn price. With the warming of the weather in the northeast, the selling sentiment may weaken, and investors need to pay attention to the callback risk [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The decline of live pig futures in the far - month contracts slowed down, and the overall position increased by nearly 10,000 lots. The spot price continued to decline. The inventory pressure needs to be relieved, the production capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year, so the mid - term reversal of pig prices is difficult [8] 3.7 Eggs - The price of egg futures decreased with increased positions, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The number of newly - hatched laying hens will be lower than the number of old hens to be culled in the next five months, and the egg inventory is expected to decline. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low levels [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - The situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain. Before the war shows obvious signs of easing, precious metals may maintain a weak operation, and the gold price is testing the support at $4000 per ounce [1] - The marginal tightening direction of US dollar liquidity remains unchanged. Platinum and palladium are priced based on the logic of industrial metals. The consumption - end narrative of large - scale application of hydrogen energy still needs time to materialize, and the consumption end has insufficient support for platinum and palladium prices. However, due to the rigid constraints at the mine end of platinum and palladium resources, there is still a resource - end premium, and the strong support below for platinum and palladium is temporarily seen at the 350 - yuan - per - gram level [2] Summary by Related Information Market News - Fed Governor Milan said that if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rate hikes may be needed, but currently, there is no need to consider it. It is still expected that there will be four interest rate cuts in 2026, and the inflation dot - plot at the end of this year is raised to 2.7%, expecting overall inflation to rise [3] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US economic recession to 30% and still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and December [3] - The global central bank director of the World Gold Council, Shaokai Fan, said that gold's role as a hedge against de - dollarization and geopolitical risks is expected to prompt central banks that were previously absent from the market to buy this precious metal this year [3] - An Israeli official said that the US has set April 9 as the target date to end the war against Iran, meaning there are about 21 days left for continued fighting and negotiations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities changed little this week, with the factor strength of the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors declining. Currently, the energy - chemical and black sectors are relatively strong, while the non - ferrous and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak. Short - term price - volume factors fluctuate greatly due to macro factors [3] - The overall short - cycle momentum of the chemical sector remains high, but ethylene glycol and methanol show marginal declines. In the agricultural product sector, the short - cycle cross - section differentiation of oilseeds and meals expands [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity CTA Weekly Tracking - **Factor Performance**: Gold's time - series momentum decreased slightly, and silver's position factor stabilized slightly. The short - cycle momentum differentiation in the non - ferrous sector expanded, and copper was strong in the term structure. The time - series momentum of the black sector continued to rise marginally, with coking coal and manganese silicon being strong on a cross - sectional basis [3] - **Return Data**: Last week's supply factor return was - 0.69%, demand was 0.00%, inventory was 4.44%, and spread was 0.00%. The cumulative return of major categories was 0.29%. This month, supply was - 0.08%, demand was 0.19%, inventory was 4.93%, spread was - 0.21%, and the cumulative return of major categories was 0.01% [3] Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor weakened by 0.69%, the inventory factor increased by 4.44%, and the composite factor strengthened by 0.29%. The comprehensive signal this week was neutral [5] - **Fundamental Factors**: The domestic methanol plant operating rate increased, but the import arrival volume decreased, with a neutral supply. The operating rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region increased slightly month - on - month, with a slightly positive demand. Methanol warehouse receipts and port inventory in Guangdong Province sent short signals, with a slightly negative inventory. The domestic coastal methanol spot price sent a long signal, while the US Gulf methanol spot price sent a short signal, with a neutral spread [5] Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: The demand factor increased by 0.12%, the inventory factor increased by 0.30%, the profit factor increased by 0.13%, and the composite factor strengthened by 0.25%. The comprehensive signal this week was neutral [11] - **Fundamental Factors**: The sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to grow, with a slightly positive demand. The inventory of Chinese float glass manufacturers decreased, turning the inventory signal to long. The pre - tax daily profit of float glass made by coal - fired float process in North China declined, with a short profit. The spot price of Hebei float glass sent a short signal, with a slightly negative spread [11] Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased by 0.42%, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the spread factor strengthened by 0.47%, and the composite factor strengthened by 0.31%. The comprehensive signal this week remained short [12] - **Fundamental Factors**: The weekly iron ore arrival volume at Jingtang Port decreased, turning the supply signal to slightly negative. The average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased, keeping the demand signal short. The inventory of imported trade ore in 31 ports accumulated, keeping the inventory signal slightly negative. The freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased, turning the spread signal to short [12] Lead - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor remained unchanged, the demand factor strengthened by 0.60%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.68%, the spread factor weakened by 0.66%, and the composite factor strengthened by 0.10%. The comprehensive signal this week remained short [12] - **Fundamental Factors**: The price of SMM imported lead concentrate decreased, turning the supply signal to short. The monthly output of Chinese cars continued to decline, keeping the demand signal short. The inventory of SMM lead concentrate at Lianyungang Port continued to increase, turning the inventory signal to long. The price of SMM lead ingots decreased, turning the spread signal to short [12]