1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end, and the market logic may shift to changes in the capital market and risk appetite in the short term [4]. - Current liquidity remains abundant, with capital prices at a low level. Short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and there are opportunities for phased repair of long - term interest rates [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are high, oil price fluctuations have intensified, and there is still a possibility of continuous adjustment. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL closing prices are 108.165 (up 0.02%), 105.915 (unchanged), 102.478 (down 0.02%), and 111.240 (up 0.52%) respectively. Their trading volumes are 78058 (down 37006), 66738 (down 43384), 45045 (down 8661), and 84841 (down 13232) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: For example, the TL2606 - 2609 spread is 0.29 (up 0.02), and the T06 - TL06 spread is - 3.05 (down 0.48) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions are 280755 (down 1725), 173725 (down 808), 74893 (up 657), and 130829 (down 1820) respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds have changed, such as 230012.IB (6y) at 106.8007 (up 0.0067), and 250025.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (down 0.0122) [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds are 1.2400% (unchanged), 1.3425% (unchanged), 1.5600% (up 1.25bp), 1.6925% (up 1.25bp), and 1.8285% (down 0.80bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate is 1.3224% (up 1.07bp), and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate is 1.4000% (down 2.71bp) [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates are 3.00% and 3.5% respectively, both unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase is 175 billion, the maturity scale is 510 billion, and the interest rate is 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The state has taken temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices for the first time in 13 years. The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 23. After regulation, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 1160 yuan and 1115 yuan per ton respectively [2]. - The second meeting of the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism was held, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial chain and supply chain [3]. - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said that the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and would suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days, but Iran denied it [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metals will continue to play between geopolitical risks, inflation stickiness, and stagflation expectations. Inflation expectations, hawkish policies of major central banks, high oil prices, and a strong US dollar may limit the rebound. If the global economic slowdown is verified later, stagflation trading may support gold and silver. In the long - term, the logic of central bank gold purchases and supply constraints remains, and precious metals still have allocation value. It is expected to digest the gains through fluctuations in the short - term. Technically, the RSI and KD indicators of London gold and silver are in the oversold range, and the 30 - minute MACD golden cross indicates short - term rebound momentum. Short - term operations should be cautious, and long - term funds can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 977.28 yuan/gram, up 37.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 17,085 yuan/kilogram, up 1,674 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 54,345 lots, down 8,419 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 52,442 lots, down 3,386 lots [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 282,408 lots, down 104,014 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,247,893 lots, down 11,431 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 106,743 kilograms, down 3 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 365,923 kilograms, up 1,374 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 979.56 yuan, up 54.91 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 16,608 yuan, down 102 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.28 yuan/gram, up 17.63 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 477 yuan/gram, down 1,776 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,052.70 tons, down 4.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,513.67 tons, up 264.76 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.12, down 0.40; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.15, down 0.63; the CBOE gold volatility index was 43.36, up 8.11 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.47, up 0.05; the gold - silver ratio was 66.43, up 3.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US [2]. - A senior Iranian official said Trump had no right to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The two sides have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [2]. - Goldman Sachs said the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes it is too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy. He thinks the labor market is weak and advocates further interest rate cuts [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk to the US economy. He does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, there may be interest rate cuts later this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 24, 21:45: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value [2] - March 24, 22:00: US February new home sales annualized total [2] - March 24, 22:00: US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index [2] - March 25, 20:30: US February durable goods orders monthly rate [2] - March 26, 20:30: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value [2] - March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21 [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending monthly rate [2] - March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report On Tuesday, the I2605 contract fluctuated with a stronger bias. Macroeconomically, the global financial market was greatly shaken by Trump's remarks on the US - Iran negotiations. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, domestic port inventories declined, blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production increased, and the expected increase in demand still supported iron ore prices, but the chaotic international situation affected market sentiment. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis. The reference view is to expect a fluctuating and bullish trend, and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 824.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the position volume was 445,891 hands, up 3,958 hands [2]. - The price difference between the I 5 - 9 contracts was 33.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 19,700 hands, up 3,647 hands [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 3,200.00 hands, down 200.00 hands [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 107.85 US dollars/ton, down 0.38 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 854 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the price of 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port was 756 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Macfarlane dry ton - main contract) was 13 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 109.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.10 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 3.14, down 0.04 [2]. - The estimated import cost was 868 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,144.30 tons, up 95.50 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,383.10 tons, up 66.10 tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,814.18 tons, down 133.14 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,034.06 tons, up 104.96 tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 19.00 days, down 2 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.85 tons, up 1.04 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.29%, up 1.80% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.13 tons, up 15.45 tons; the BDI index was 2,037.00, down 19.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.55 US dollars/ton, down 0.10 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 11.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.06 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 79.80%, up 1.44%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.55%, up 2.65% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 12.47%, down 0.75%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.26%, down 0.98% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.81%, up 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 22.73%, up 1.09% [2]. Industry News - From March 16th to March 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,144.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,559.4 tons, with an increase of 95.0 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,995.7 tons, an increase of 120.4 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,634.8 tons, an increase of 47.6 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 563.8 tons, a decrease of 25.4 tons [2]. - From March 16th to March 22nd, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,383.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.1 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,271.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,050.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179.8 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver still lies in the external market of the origin. The overall oil supply gap is not obvious. As the second - quarter approaches, the supply of domestic oilseeds will be more abundant, while the demand lacks clear positive drivers, and the supply pressure of oils may increase. However, due to geopolitical conflicts, high - level crude oil, and the positive impact of US biodiesel policies on the entire oil market, the oil market has support at the bottom and is more likely to rise than fall [1][3]. - In the short - term, the market has more positive sentiment and is mainly in a strong and volatile state. The price ranges of P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are [8700 - 10000], [8000 - 8900], and [9000 - 10000] respectively [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: In February, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased significantly, but exports were occupied by Indonesia and also decreased month - on - month. Although the inventory pressure continued to ease, the boost was insufficient. However, in the first half of March, Malaysian exports increased significantly, and the origin pressure is expected to further ease. Indonesia may implement the B50 policy in the second half of the year, which is expected to boost palm oil demand [1]. - **US biodiesel policy**: The EPA has submitted the long - delayed RVO final proposal to the White House Office of Management and Budget for final approval. The Trump administration plans to re - allocate at least 50% of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, and the biofuel blending quota announcement will be released by the end of this month [2]. - **Soybean and rapeseed**: The market believes that the easing or end of the US - Iran war increases the probability of Trump's visit to China and the probability of reaching a soybean purchase agreement. The global soybean harvest is expected to be strong, and the upward momentum of soybeans is limited. The China - Canada rapeseed negotiation is currently optimistic, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to maintain a 14.9% import tax. The global rapeseed harvest is good, and the support for rapeseed oil is weak [2]. - **Domestic oils inventory**: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, but the overall supply is still sufficient and lacks upward momentum. Soybean oil continues to reduce inventory due to its high cost - effectiveness; rapeseed oil has low inventory, but with the arrival of rapeseed for crushing, the supply is expected to increase; palm oil has high inventory pressure and slow inventory reduction [3]. - **Geopolitical factors**: Due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, crude oil is at a high level, making vegetable oils more cost - effective. The supply of global oilseeds is worried due to the不畅 passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which also boosts the oilseed market. However, the situation is volatile, and the market is in a high - volatility period before the conflict is completely resolved [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: In the short - term, the market has more positive sentiment and is mainly in a strong and volatile state [25]. - **Price range**: P2605 fluctuates in the range of [8700 - 10000], Y2605 in the range of [8000 - 8900], and OI2605 in the range of [9000 - 10000] [25]. - **Technical analysis**: In the short - term, it is in a high - level shock. It is advisable to wait and see. Long positions can take profits and leave the market. Arbitrage can observe the weakening trend of the spread between rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean in the far - month [25]. - **Basis strategy**: The current basis is regarded as a short - term weak shock [25]. - **Calendar spread strategy**: Go long on the OI5 - 9 spread [25]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Treat the spread between rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm in the far - month 09 contract as weakening [25]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price range of soybean oil is 8000 - 8900, rapeseed oil is 9000 - 10000, and palm oil is 8700 - 10000 [26]. - **Hedging strategy**: Trade merchants with high oil inventory can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits; refineries with low procurement inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs; oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean oil sales prices can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [26]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Palm oil**: The latest prices of palm oil 01, 05, and 09 are 9652 yuan/ton, 9942 yuan/ton, and 9888 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.14%, 2.31%, and 2.38% respectively. The BMD palm oil main contract is 4582 ringgit/ton, down 0.63% [27]. - **Soybean oil**: The latest prices of soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 are 8644 yuan/ton, 8740 yuan/ton, and 8666 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%, 0%, and - 0.16% respectively. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is 65.53 cents/pound, up 0.46% [27]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The latest prices of rapeseed oil 01, 05, and 09 are 9749 yuan/ton, 9950 yuan/ton, and 9831 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is 719.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.4 [29]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply chain risks, and Indonesia may implement the B50 policy, which may increase the domestic demand for crude palm oil by about 2 million tons and make the export supply more tense. The domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased week - on - week, and the total inventory of the three major oils decreased slightly [30][31]. - **Negative information**: As of March 20, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil decreased week - on - week, but increased year - on - year. The total inventory of the three major oils decreased slightly week - on - week but increased month - on - month [32][33]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased significantly year - on - year, while the trading volume of palm oil was weak and decreased month - on - month [34]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data [39]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [39]. - Weather information in the origin [39]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The oil market oscillated this week. With the fluctuations of the US - Iran conflict, the crude oil market was highly volatile, and the domestic oil market was slightly stronger than the external market. The changes in the positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were not significant. The short - term bearish sentiment in the oil sector was not strong [38]. - **Calendar spread structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure with near - term strength and far - term weakness. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened because the near - month has strong support but the far - month supply is expected to be more abundant [41]. - **Basis structure**: The main basis of oils rebounded slightly this week due to the improvement of spot conditions, but the domestic oil inventory is high and the downstream demand lacks support, so it is mainly in the bottom - finishing stage. The basis of rapeseed oil may still weaken in the future [46]. - **External market**: The external market was the main focus this week. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level due to geopolitical factors. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil were in a high - level consolidation state. The international soybean - palm oil spread continued to narrow due to the expectation of the B50 policy [50]. - **Capital positions**: The net position ratio of managed funds has rebounded, and the price has reached a new high in two and a half years. Producers/merchants and other commercial positions are still net short, and the commercial short - position ratio is as high as 57.8% [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread continued to decline, which may boost the enthusiasm for biofuel blending. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, but it is expected to gradually strengthen, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [54]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's quotes are firm, and the domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts ship purchases in the long - term [57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports were lower than market expectations, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. The report was bearish, but the impact on the disk was limited due to the improvement of export data in early March [59]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: In the off - season of demand, the trading volume is difficult to improve. Due to the recent increase in ship purchases, the inventory has increased, and the domestic palm oil supply - demand pattern has become looser, suppressing the disk price [60]. - **Soybean oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low. As the second quarter approaches, the supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply shortage caused by the arrival rhythm [60]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited, and the inventory continues to decrease. However, due to the global rapeseed harvest and the resumption of China - Canada trade, the domestic rapeseed oil supply may further increase [60]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. The overall terminal demand for oils is still weak [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents daily data on stock index futures, including IM, IF, IC, and IH. It details the closing prices, trading volumes, trading amounts, open interests, basis points, and other relevant information of different contracts, as well as the changes compared with the previous day. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs IM Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 7,600.86, up 2.59%. The main contract IM2606 rose 3.09% to close at 7,387.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 292,487 lots, down 32,679 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 403,024 lots, down 5,904 lots [3][4]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 213.66 points, up 5.45 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -11.6%. The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.16 points, 5.27 points, 37.96 points, and 59.1 points respectively [4][11]. - **Positions**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top members of different contracts, as well as the changes compared with the previous day [15][17][19]. IF Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4,474.72, up 1.28%. The main contract IF2606 rose 1.41% to close at 4,388.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 117,585 lots, down 39,333 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 264,021 lots, down 12,902 lots [20][21]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 86.32 points, down 12.72 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -7.89%. The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 0.5 points, 7.62 points, 29.26 points, and 82.86 points respectively [21][30]. - **Positions**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top members of different contracts, as well as the changes compared with the previous day [34][36][38]. IC Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 500 was 7,597.37, up 2.11%. The main contract IC2606 rose 2.72% to close at 7,409.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 195,375 lots, down 22,348 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 294,332 lots, down 4,523 lots [40][41]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 187.77 points, up 17.98 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -10.16%. The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 7.06 points, 11.99 points, 58.12 points, and 93.43 points respectively [41][49]. - **Positions**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top members of different contracts, as well as the changes compared with the previous day [55][56][58]. IH Futures - **Daily Quotes**: The closing price of the SSE 50 was 2,830.85, up 1.38%. The main contract IH2606 rose 1.66% to close at 2,810.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 59,122 lots, down 19,258 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 106,443 lots, down 9,026 lots [60]. - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 20.25 points, down 3.92 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -2.89%. The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0 points, 3.04 points, 17.81 points, and 61.93 points respectively [61][66]. - **Positions**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top members of different contracts, as well as the changes compared with the previous day [71][73][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply and demand of caustic soda have improved, the high inventory of factories has been reduced, and the spot price is supported. The 05 contract basis is still at a low level, waiting for further realization of positive factors. In the context of the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the launch of new domestic alumina production capacity, the expectation of improved supply and demand in the future cannot be falsified for the time being. However, under the low basis level, the unexpected easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the lower - than - expected exports will also bring callback risks. In summary, the short - term price of SH2605 is still dominated by Middle East geopolitical news and should be treated with oscillations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2557 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan; the futures holding volume is 186,704 lots, a decrease of 21,223 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is 5430 lots, an increase of 2425 lots; the futures trading volume is 652,492 lots, an increase of 89,957 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2579 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2557 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 708 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 885 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2269 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan; the basis is - 288 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 227.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,180 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2730 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From March 14th to 20th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month to 82.48%; from March 13th to 19th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.17% month - on - month to 88.97%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.42% month - on - month to 52.57%. As of March 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 6.28% and a year - on - year increase of 20.22%. From March 13th to 19th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 103 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the influence of short - term corporate malfunctions, urea production is expected to continue to decrease. Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled the market trading sentiment. However, the high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend. The overall inventory of urea may continue to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1920 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1864 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 59 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 204,042 lots, a decrease of 16,190 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,233; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8,712 lots, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1870, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remaining unchanged and Jiangsu increasing by 10 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 595 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 712.5 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons compared with the previous week; enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons compared with the previous week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 92.19%, a decrease of 1.1%; the daily urea output is 217,100 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons. Urea exports are 28 tons, a decrease of 32 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, an increase of 271,170 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41%; the melamine operating rate is 59.31%, an increase of 5.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 1,012 yuan/ton, an increase of 726 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 517.99 tons, an increase of 18.45 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,600 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 15.53%. As of March 19, the port inventory was 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons, a decrease of 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 151.94 tons, a decrease of 1.82 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.18%, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, gold prices are suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar after the oil price soars due to the Middle - East conflict. The oil - dollar - gold transmission mechanism has two core paths, and the short - term co - movement of oil and gold prices is difficult. Before the situation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict becomes clear, short - term hasty layout has high risks [3]. - In the long - term, the US's strategic intervention in Venezuela and Iran weakens the global trust in the US dollar as a reserve asset, and the long - term allocation logic of gold is further strengthened. The US's deteriorating fiscal situation also undermines the credibility of the US dollar as a credit currency [3]. - The Fed's monetary policy has not undergone a fundamental change. The current economic environment and AI "rigid demand" limit the Fed's room for interest rate hikes. Short - term policy fluctuations are just noise and do not change the medium - term trend [3]. - The US dollar exchange rate has entered a long - term downward cycle, and gold, as a hedging and alternative asset for the currency system's credit, will benefit significantly and has medium - term allocation value after the over - decline [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Review - Gold has experienced a "roller - coaster" market, rising to a historical peak of over $5500 and then giving back the quarterly gains [5]. - At the March FOMC, the Fed will not cut interest rates without inflation progress. The Fed has adjusted its forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation [7]. - Powell seems more hawkish, believing that the impact of the US - Israel - Iran conflict on the economy is short - term, being worried about the rise in inflation expectations, and noting that the unemployment rate has been stable since last September [9]. Dynamic Game among Oil, Dollar, and Gold - In the short - term, avoid the strengthening of the US dollar caused by rising oil prices. The "oil - dollar agreement" still supports the US dollar's strength, and the US dollar index and gold prices show a significant medium - term negative correlation. The time window with a negative 60 - day rolling correlation coefficient from 2010 - 2026 accounts for 78.5% [11][16]. - The US's military actions in Venezuela aim to control global oil reserves, enhance its military presence, and strengthen the oil - dollar system. Oil's strategic value lies in its irreplaceability in the military, and it forms a positive cycle of "oil control - military advantage - US dollar reserve status" [20]. - The long - term US - Iran war is likely to turn into a war of attrition, which will erode the foundation of the US dollar's hegemony [25]. - The relationship between gold and oil prices has weakened. Since the US - Israel - Iran conflict in March 2026, their correlation has dropped from 0.8 to near zero and then turned negative. The reference value of the gold - oil ratio has decreased significantly [29]. The US Fiscal Situation in 2026 - The abolition of IEEPA has led to a decline in the effective tariff rate. The new 122 - clause tariff measures and the expansion of the exemption list will also affect the tariff revenue [35]. - The Trump administration's tariff substitution plans cannot change the upward trend of the fiscal deficit. The current effective tax rate has decreased significantly, and if the 122 - clause tariff is not extended, the fiscal revenue from tariffs will drop sharply [39]. - If the war expands, the US may increase defense spending. Trump has proposed to increase the 2027 fiscal year's defense budget to $1.5 trillion, a more than 50% increase from 2026 [45]. - The US's current fiscal situation is in a historically dangerous range, with the federal public debt - to - GDP ratio approaching 100%. If the conflict leads to an economic recession, the fiscal pressure will increase sharply [46]. - The sharp increase in the deficit may lead to the selling of US Treasury bonds and an increase in the demand for gold [56]. Monetary Policy and Gold - The current economic environment does not support the Fed's interest rate hikes. Compared with 2022, the US labor market is weak, inflation is moderately high and stable, and there is no large - scale fiscal rescue plan [62]. - AI's rigid demand restricts the Fed's interest rate hikes. The US economy in 2026 is highly dependent on AI - related investments, and higher interest rates will have a fatal impact on AI enterprises [68]. Wash Transaction - Wash is considered a hawkish figure, but large - scale balance - sheet reduction is operationally challenging and conflicts with the Trump administration's goal of maintaining a loose financial environment. Adjusting the asset structure is a more feasible policy goal [74]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, despite the high gold price, central banks' official demand for gold remained strong, with a cumulative purchase of 863 tons. The UK's gold exports to China in 2025 were significantly higher than China's official purchase volume [79]. Liquidity Impact - The long - term core trading line supporting the gold price is unlikely to reverse in the short - term. Liquidity risks may cause short - term gold price declines. Looking back at past liquidity crises, the gold price shows a phased pattern, and the Fed's crisis - response ability has been upgraded [86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are experiencing adjustments. The soybean No. 1 main contract 2605 and the soybean meal main contract 2605 have continued to decline this week. The spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal are relatively stable, and the basis has strengthened [5]. - The inventory of domestic soybeans continues to decline, and there is no soybean auction for the time being. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills and the inventory of port soybeans have both decreased. The U.S. soybeans have stabilized, and the expected increase in the planting area of new U.S. soybean crops needs attention [5][6]. - The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased month - on - month. The feed demand is relatively strong, but the long - term capacity reduction is unfavorable [6][7]. - In the future, the sales of domestic soybeans are slow at high prices, and the remaining grain continues to decline. The market price is still strong, and it is expected that the trend of soybean No. 1 will be strong, with short - term adjustments due to energy fluctuations. The arrival of domestic soybeans has decreased, there is no auction, the operation of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. The sentiment has declined, and soybean meal has adjusted [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - The soybean No. 1 main contract 2605 continued to decline and adjust this week, with a decline of more than 2% at the end of today's session. The spot price is stable, and the basis has strengthened, with the futures price at a discount. The soybean meal main contract 2605 also continued to decline and adjust, falling below 3000 points again. The spot price of soybean meal is relatively stable, and the basis has strengthened, with the futures price discount widening [5]. Supply - side Situation - **Domestic Soybean Inventory**: As of March 20, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong has decreased month - on - month, but the remaining grain ratio in the whole country is higher than that of the same period last year. There is no state - reserve soybean auction for the time being [5]. - **Soybean Arrival and Port Inventory**: The arrival of soybeans at oil mills and the inventory of port soybeans have both decreased. As of March 20, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1449500 tons, and the port soybean inventory was 5131000 tons, both decreasing month - on - month [5]. - **U.S. Soybeans**: The U.S. - Iran conflict continues, but the U.S. may conduct negotiations. The expected increase in the planting area of new U.S. soybean crops needs attention, with the previous forecast of 85 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%) [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Oil Mill Operation and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of March 20, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.81%, increasing month - on - month. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5116000 tons, decreasing month - on - month. The soybean meal output was 1572000 tons, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 670500 tons, increasing month - on - month, and the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 3520100 tons, decreasing month - on - month. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.82 days, increasing month - on - month [6]. - **Feed Demand**: The livestock and poultry inventory is still high, which supports the feed demand. However, due to the intensified losses, the capacity may continue to be reduced, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on March 23, 2026, including the trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio of different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio of various sectors, and also includes multiple figures related to the trading and position of each sector [1][2][5] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 23, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 1071.172 billion yuan, a +6.03% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1470.583 billion yuan, a +0.66% change; the trading - position ratio was 70.73% [1] - There are figures showing the price change, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 468.395 billion yuan, a +34.77% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 860.575 billion yuan, a - 1.70% change; the trading - position ratio was 53.11% [1] - There are figures showing the price change, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 707.708 billion yuan, a - 8.19% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 592.831 billion yuan, a - 1.52% change; the trading - position ratio was 123.83% [1] - The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 1354.404 billion yuan, a +14.69% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 404.659 billion yuan, a - 5.79% change; the trading - position ratio was 384.59% [1] - There are figures showing the price change, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy - chemical plate was 1152.228 billion yuan, a +2.38% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 603.613 billion yuan, a +6.76% change; the trading - position ratio was 185.95% [1] - There are figures showing the price change, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy - chemical plate [5] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 422.156 billion yuan, a +10.21% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 667.712 billion yuan, a +1.50% change; the trading - position ratio was 61.72% [1] - There are figures showing the price change, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [5] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 349.938 billion yuan, a +49.26% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 339.882 billion yuan, a +4.67% change; the trading - position ratio was 91.99% [2] - There are figures showing the price change, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5]