【钢材】 | | | | Millia | ■这部落 | 黑巴至隔日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月28日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需环比下滑，回暖仍相对缺乏持续性，产量基本持平，库存继续下降，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷供需趋稳，库存延续下降态势,铁水产量上升至高位,随着吨钢利润下滑,后期复产将明显放缓。从下游行业看,基建、制 造业有所好转,地产销售、新开工障幅边际收窄,整体依然疲 ...

商 品 研 究 2025年04月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 硅铁：低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 4 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but gives individual ratings for each black commodity: steel - narrow - range adjustment; iron ore - repeated oscillations; coking coal - consolidation; coke - consolidation; manganese silicon - oscillation; ferrosilicon - oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on April 25, 2025, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and future trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures fell slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. This week, rebar production decreased slightly, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped significantly. Considering short - term tariff war relief and domestic policy expectations, as well as raw material and finished - product support, it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 dropped 0.96% to 720.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices also fell. Supply showed a slight increase in global shipments, while demand saw an increase in molten iron production and a rise in port inventory. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures dropped 0.68% to 956 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. With policy support expectations, it is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures dropped 0.28% to 1590.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports declined. Supply production is stable, and demand is supported by high - level blast furnace operation. It is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices declined, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. With a decrease in supply in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5658 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market sentiment is weak. With continued production cuts in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, as well as profit, spread data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, etc [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][43] - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [52][53]

【4 月 23 日国内期市黑色金属板块表现各异】铁矿石主力涨近 2%，截至目前上涨 1.82%，报 725.50 元/吨。螺纹钢主力上涨 0.39%，报 3104.00 元/吨。热卷主力上涨 0.56%，报 3206.00 元/吨。线材主力下 跌 0.18%，报 3350.00 元/吨。4 月 23 日黑色金属期货价格行情如下：螺纹钢开盘价 3080.00 元，昨收价 3075.00 元，昨结价 3092.00 元。铁矿石开盘价 711.00 元，昨收价 711.00 元，昨结价 712.50 元。不锈钢 开盘价 12700.00 元，昨收价 12690.00 元，昨结价 12740.00 元。热卷开盘价 3176.00 元，昨收价 3171.00 元，昨结价 3188.00 元。线材开盘价 3376.00 元，昨收价 3339.00 元，昨结价 3356.00 元。硅铁开盘价 5686.00 元，昨收价 5666.00 元，昨结价 5686.00 元。锰硅开盘价 5830.00 元，昨收价 5810.00 元，昨结 价 5844.00 元。4 月 22 日黑色金属仓单数据显示：螺纹钢仓库期货仓单 20482 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面有所反弹，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3113 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 上涨 37 元/吨，涨幅为 1.2%，持仓增加 2.68 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 上涨 20 元/吨至 2960 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 40 元/吨至 3150 元/吨，全国建材成交量 14.55 | | | | 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 6.59%至 518.7 万吨，热卷库存下降 6.88%至 214.07 万吨，库 | | | | 存降幅均明显加快，显示终端需求有所改善。前期贸易战导致的恐慌情绪有所缓和，螺纹旺季需求仍有韧 | | | | 性，库存降至低位水平，螺纹估值也处于低位。预计短期螺纹盘面仍以低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所上涨，收于 715.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘 ...

铜： 夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 贵金属 ：黄金持续刷新新高。特朗普在其社交媒体平台 Truth Social 表示，"谈判与成功的黄金法则： 拥有黄金者制定规则"，即谁有黄金谁占主导，引发市场猜想。同时，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并 研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，动摇市场信心。随着贸易战扰动加剧，引发一系列的连锁反 应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定 性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。面对未来通胀上行压力，鲍威尔也未对未来降息进行松口，但长端美 债价格的波动，令市场对美联储重启 QE 和提前降息的预期升温。考虑今年美国国债到期和债务压力进 一步加剧，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体仍将维持强势。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 首席点评：美股全线回落，特朗普呼吁降息 ...

論色金属数据目报 | 2025/04/21 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 音子ք | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2509 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 4月18日 | 3111.00 | 3207.00 | 673.00 | 1552. 50 | 1000. 50 | | | 涨跌值 | -28.00 | -26.00 | -10.00 | -16. 50 | -12.50 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.89 | -0. 80 | -1.46 | -1. 05 | -1.23- | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力 ...

五矿期货早报 | 黑色金属 | | | 黑色金属早报 | | 2025/4/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 煤焦钢矿报价情况 | | | | | 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 折交割品 | | | 加拿大CFR | 172 | 0 | | | | 山西柳林低硫 | 1120 | 0 | | | 焦媒 | 山西柳林中硫 | 1060 | 0 | | | | 蒙5精煤(乌不浪口) | 1040 | 0 | | | | 主焦煤(唐山) | 1205 | 0 | 1048 | | | 目照准一级(现货出库) | 1350 | 10 | 1452 | | 焦炭 | 鄂尔多斯二级 | 1101 | 0 | | | | 陕西长治准一 | 1440 | 0 | | | | 出口FOB | 224 | 0 | | | | 普氏指数 | 787 | -5 | | | | 青岛港61.5%-PB粉 | 755 | -7 | 803 | | | 青岛港59.5%-金布巴 | 713 | -6 | 824 | | 铁矿 | 青岛港62.5%-巴混 | 768 | -7 | 783 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation. Although there was a panic - driven decline due to the tariff war, the peak - season demand for rebar has resilience, inventory is at a low level, and the valuation is also low, limiting further price drops [1]. - The iron ore market is likely to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply and demand factors are intertwined, with a slight decrease in global shipments and limited room for further increase in molten iron production [1]. - The coke and coking coal markets are expected to oscillate weakly. For coke, the reduction in coking costs and increased production on the supply side, along with weak steel demand and reduced cost support, contribute to this trend. For coking coal, the weak market, cautious procurement by coking enterprises, and low cost of making warehouse receipts are the main factors [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to operate weakly. For manganese silicon, the weakening of port manganese ore prices and the need for production cuts to ease the supply - demand contradiction are key factors. For ferrosilicon, the lack of improvement in demand and the accumulation of inventory are the main reasons [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price closed at 3092 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. This week, national rebar production decreased by 3150 tons to 229220 tons, social inventory decreased by 30340 tons to 532760 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 14260 tons to 200400 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 21140 tons to 273820 tons. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore futures i2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.14%) from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell. Global shipments decreased slightly, while molten iron production continued to increase, but there is limited room for further growth. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price closed at 1555.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable. Coking production increased, and steel demand was weak, suppressing coke prices. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price closed at 950.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (1.6%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Some spot prices rose, and the market was weak. Coking enterprises' procurement was cautious. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price closed at 5902 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The mainstream steel tender inquiry price in April was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from March, and the procurement volume increased by 400 tons. It is expected to operate weakly [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price closed at 5658 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The mainstream steel tender inquiry price in April was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the tender quantity decreased by 183 tons. It is expected to operate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads and basis for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Price Spreads**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts for various varieties from 2005 to 2025 [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the contract spreads of different periods for various varieties from 2016 to 2026 [25][27][30][33][34][36][37][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts show the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black - metal research field [52][53].

弘则研究-内外风险是否完全释放，二季度预期差指向何方？ 2025041720250416 摘要 • 美国发动全球贸易战对黑色商品市场产生显著影响，降低商品消费和物流 生产效率，对全球经济和商品定价产生深远影响，中国应对果断，国内资 产表现相对平稳。 • 二季度国内钢材需求有所修复，热卷和螺纹钢表需环比改善，但制造业和 出口短期影响未如预期般严重，4-5 月有望保持强劲，铁水产量逐步筑顶。 • 焦煤价格自年初以来持续下跌，已跌破 900 元，与基本面相符，可能打开 钢材下方空间，铁矿石和焦煤价格走势也在掂量材料成本支撑位置，上行 趋势较难，下行空间更大。 • 当前黑色行业矛盾不突出，预期偏弱导致产业行为谨慎，一季度各项数据 良好，粗钢产量和消费微增，出口增加，铁矿库存去化，总体处于偏强现 实状态。 • 全球贸易纠纷降低全年粗钢消费，各研究机构需下调消费预判，导致产业 链原料消费增量减少，供给端压到边际成本，原料端整体偏弱。 Q&A 美国全球贸易战对黑色商品市场有何影响？ 美国在 2025 年 4 月 2 日发动全球贸易战，对所有经济体（除俄罗斯外）加征 超高关税。这一举措可能成为未来五到十年的重大转折点，对全球 ...