债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

策略研究 · 全球大类资产配置观察 海外市场有何异动？ ——全球大类资产配置观察 2026 年 2 月 22 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 孔玥 ：kongyue_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525100001 相关研究 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股 市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？2025-10-23， 划重点：二十届四中全会公报对 A 股投资的启示 2025-10-26，布局消费主题投资机遇— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-20，反内卷中寻投资机会—— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-06，七部门剑指新型工业化，金融活水锚定新 质生产力 2025-07-31，8 月投资组合报告：政策预期+业绩护航 2025-07-31，7 月决议偏鹰，9 月降息窗口还在吗？ 2025-07-30，7 月政治局会议对 A 股市场的投资指引 2025-07- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the bond market may be the diversion of funds from the bond market to the stock market. Attention should be paid to the carry and coupon value of credit bonds. The current bond market is a pessimistic expectation correction market dominated by allocation funds, and may enter a stage of narrowing spreads, but the overall space is still limited. The core contradiction order of the subsequent market is: asset allocation re - balance (stock market diversion) > monetary and fiscal coordination > expectation of price recovery [4]. - For credit bonds, under the support of loose liquidity, the carry strategy of short - and medium - term credit bonds has high certainty, and it is advisable to "increase positions on dips". Under the support of the demand of amortized bond funds, the carry can appropriately extend the duration to 3 - 5 - year medium - and high - grade general credit bonds. Considering that the current credit spreads are at relatively low historical levels, attention should be paid to the coupon value of some varieties and grade sinking. [4] - For secondary perpetual bonds, in the January market, the long - end spreads of secondary perpetual bonds were less compressed, and the catch - up was more obvious in this round of market. In the past two weeks, the allocation power of insurance institutions to secondary perpetual bonds has weakened and even turned into net selling. Considering the valuation and supply - demand changes, it is recommended to be cautious and wait for the opportunity of valuation recovery or supply increase. Also, attention should be paid to the potential participation opportunities of securities company bonds with increasing supply since the beginning of the year. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market - **General Credit Bonds**: The net supply of general credit bonds decreased this period. The issuance of general credit bonds was 139 billion yuan, and the net financing was 36.3 billion yuan, compared with 358.7 billion yuan and 256.5 billion yuan in the previous period respectively. Among them, the issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 76.8 billion yuan, and the net financing decreased to 19.1 billion yuan; the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased to 62.2 billion yuan, and the net financing decreased significantly to 17.2 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds was 2.65 years, a decrease from the previous period (2.91 years). The credit bond bid - upper limit - coupon rate decreased from 0.42% to 0.41%, and the credit bond subscription multiple increased from 2.67 to 2.85 [4][7][17][21]. - **Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds**: There was no issuance of bank secondary perpetual bonds this period, and the net financing scale decreased. The net financing of secondary capital bonds was - 200 million yuan, and the net financing of perpetual bonds was - 3 billion yuan. This was the sixth consecutive week of no issuance this year [4][25]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Yield and Credit Spread**: The yields of credit bonds generally declined, and most credit spreads narrowed. Among general credit bonds, except for the 1/3Y AA - grade, 7Y AA - grade medium - term notes, and 5Y AAA/AA - grade renewable urban investment bonds, the yields mostly declined. The 10Y high - grade urban investment bonds performed the best (the 10Y AAA - grade urban investment bonds decreased by 10.6BP). The yields of all terms and grades of secondary perpetual bonds declined, and the 7Y bank perpetual bonds performed the best (the yields of 7Y secondary perpetual bonds of all qualifications declined by more than 5BP). Most credit spreads narrowed, with the spreads of general credit bonds within 7 years changing mostly within about 2BP or less. The 10Y urban investment bonds/renewable urban investment bonds performed the best (the 10Y AAA - grade urban investment bonds/renewable urban investment bonds decreased by 8.8BP). Except for the slight widening of the credit spread of 3Y AA - grade bank perpetual bonds, the credit spreads of other terms and grades of secondary perpetual bonds all narrowed. The widening varieties were mainly concentrated in 5Y non - public general credit bonds and 1/3/5/7Y weak - quality medium - term notes [4]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of general credit bonds and bank secondary perpetual bonds both decreased this week [52]. 3.3 Stock Bond Distribution - The current yields are mostly distributed within 2.4% [6]. - **Industry Bonds**: The average yields of various industries' public - offering industry bonds are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity. Most industries' yields are within a relatively low range [106]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The average yields of public - offering urban investment bonds in various regions are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity. The yields in most regions are within a relatively low range [108]. - **Small and Medium - Sized Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds**: The average yields of small and medium - sized bank secondary perpetual bonds in various regions are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity [110].

全球抛美债潮来袭！中国净买4600亿，为何还减持4亿？ 不少网友直接挠头：这是统计出错了？还是两边数据打架？ 一边是各国央行、机构扎堆抛售美债，把美债当成烫手山芋疯狂出手。 另一边咱们中国的操作直接让全网看懵：一边大手笔净买入4600亿美债，转头美国财政部数据却显示，咱们还减持了4亿。 先看看全球抛美债的疯狂场面。 2025年12月，全球多国掀起美债抛售潮，单月减持规模逼近900亿美元。 日本、英国等传统大债主，纷纷缩减美债持仓，市场一片"逃离美债"的声音。 美债价格一路下跌，收益率狂飙，全球资本都在重新调整资产布局。 就在这股抛售潮里，中国的操作堪称独一份。 美国财政部2026年2月18日发布的TIC数据清清楚楚。 中国当月净买入中长期美债4607亿美元，买入量直接碾压全球多数买家。 可最终持仓数据显示，中国美债持仓反而减少4亿美元，总额降至6835亿美元。 净买几千亿，反倒还减持？这到底是什么魔幻逻辑？ 核心答案就一句话：一个是交易流量，一个是市值存量，完全两码事。 先拆解净买入4600亿的真相。 这个数字是当月的交易流水：买入中长期美债5706亿，卖出到期短期美债1099亿。 一进一出算下来，实打实净买 ...

每经AI快讯，周五(2月20日)欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率跌0.5个基点，报2.737%；两年期德债收 益率涨0.5个基点，报2.054%；30年期德债收益率跌0.7个基点，报3.400%。 ...

Core Insights - Japan's role as an "invisible stabilizer" in the global bond market may be changing, with U.S. Treasuries likely to be the most affected [12][21] - Japanese investors and institutions are the largest overseas holders of sovereign debt, with Japan holding 12.4% of U.S. Treasuries, exceeding $1 trillion [14][15] - Rising domestic bond yields in Japan are prompting investors to consider reallocating significant funds back to domestic bonds to capitalize on these higher yields [5][13] Group 1 - Japanese bond yields have reached new highs since late last year, with the benchmark 10-year government bond yield recently reported at around 2.12% [16][19] - The yield spread between Japanese 10-year bonds and U.S. 10-year bonds has narrowed by approximately 115 basis points over the past year [16] - The deVere Group's CEO warns that investors may not fully account for the potential ripple effects of rising Japanese yields on the global bond market [4][16] Group 2 - The shift in Japanese investment behavior could lead to a tightening of the global financial environment, with long-term bond risk premiums expected to rise [6][16] - Japan has historically been a structural buyer of U.S. Treasuries and major developed market bonds; a reduction in this buying could lead to higher yields [6][21] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy remains perceived as overly accommodative, with expectations for 2 to 3 rate hikes needed to restore investor confidence [19][20] Group 3 - The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) currently allocates 50% of its assets to the bond market, with nearly half in overseas bonds, amounting to approximately ¥72.8 trillion (around $470.6 billion) [19] - Market observers note that while Japanese investors may consider reallocating funds domestically, significant changes are expected to be gradual rather than abrupt [19][20] - The volatility and liquidity of Japanese government bonds remain concerns that need to be addressed before a large-scale return of funds occurs [20]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据整理，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操 作风险自担。 来源：市场资讯 近期，欧洲债市变动与油价上行形成联动，通胀风险成为市场核心关注方向。 欧洲央行官员德马尔科表示，若通胀持续低于2%，可能需要降息。欧洲央行副行长金多斯则指出，当 前区域增长风险处于均衡状态，地缘政治是主要潜在危险。 地缘政治紧张态势加剧能源供应不确定性，推动油价走高，市场担忧能源价格上行将推高通胀水平，打 破此前的通胀放缓预期。这一担忧传导至欧洲债市，成为近期债市调整的核心驱动因素之一。 ...

具体来看，美债前三大持有国在12月的操作呈现明显分化。日本作为非美国家中唯一持有超万亿美元美债的经济体，此前已连续两个月维持1.2万亿美元以 上持仓，但12月却减持172亿美元，持仓规模降至11855亿美元。 英国作为美国传统盟友和第二大海外债权国，12月单月减持规模达230亿美元，持仓额降至8660亿美元，这一转变尤为引人注目。 根据美国财政部2月18日披露的最新国际资本流动报告，2025年12月全球多数国家选择减持美国国债。需要说明的是，美国财政部通常在每月中旬公布前两 个月末的美债持仓数据，例如本次公布的是截至2025年12月末数据，而包含2026年首月数据的报告则需等到3月中旬发布。 中国则延续了连续减持态势，12月小幅减持4亿美元，持仓额从6839亿美元降至6835亿美元，至此已连续四个月净抛售美债。 | Country | | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 12 | ...

抛售根子在安全顾虑上，2022年美国冻结俄罗斯3000亿美元资产后，大家警醒了。存美国的东西随时可能被扣，经济损失太大。南方国家外汇储备大，政治 风险一闹就伤筋动骨。 美国国债市场去年底就闹腾起来，海外持有量在2025年11月冲到9.355万亿美元顶峰，可里面藏着大问题。资金来源变了样，以前大家抢着买，现在分了两 派。 西方国家咬牙多买，日本那头持仓涨到1.2026万亿美元，英国也跟上到8880亿美元。挪威和加拿大也加码，挪威持仓上300亿美元，加拿大超350亿美元。 这些国家外汇储备多往里砸，稳住和美国的金融纽带。欧洲有些地方也小步跟进，保住政治上的默契。总的看，西方去年增持超1万亿美元，顶住市场压 力。 全球南方国家却反着来，大批甩卖美债。巴西持仓从年初150亿美元掉到120亿美元，印度从250亿美元减到200亿美元。 沙特阿拉伯去年11月持仓148.8亿美元，虽然月增14.4亿美元，但整体策略在转，减少对美债依赖。金砖国家动作最猛，巴西和印度比例直降。 抛售后资金去哪？多转向黄金。全球央行2024和2025年净买黄金超1000吨，创纪录。巴西储备到200吨，印度到800吨。中国黄金储备也增到2500吨。 ...

英国国债收益率下跌，此前弱于预期的英国就业数据增加了英国央行在未来几个月降息的可能性。英国 12月份失业率升至5.2%，高于《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家给出的5.1%的平均预期。在截至12月份 的三个月里，不含奖金的平均薪资增速放缓至4.2%，低于截至11月份的三个月的4.4%。Tradeweb的数 据显示，在该数据公布后，两年期英国国债收益率跌至18个月低点3.557%。十年期英国国债收益率下 跌2.8个基点，最新报4.366%。 ...