Economic Overview - In Q2, the actual GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth fell to 3.9%, marking a decline of 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points from Q1 respectively[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate has dropped below 4%, the lowest in nearly three years, primarily due to strong supply and weak demand characteristics[23] Supply and Demand Balance - Q3 is expected to see a balance between supply and demand, driven by the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and improved confidence in the real sector[2] - The recovery in consumption is gradually being confirmed, with "anti-involution" policies likely being a key factor influencing Q3 economic performance[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Q2 grew by only 1.8% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.4 percentage points from Q1, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments experiencing widespread contraction[11] - In June, fixed asset investment saw a month-on-month decline of 0.1%, marking a historical low[11] Consumer Behavior - The nominal growth rate of social retail sales in Q2 was 4.5%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from Q1, indicating a moderate increase in consumer spending[19] - In June, social retail sales growth fell to 4.8%, a significant drop of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, with most categories experiencing a broad decline[20] Inflation and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that moderate inflation positively impacts corporate operations and household balance sheets, with expectations of a gradual recovery in nominal GDP growth[2] - The bond market is currently benefiting from a low inflation environment and ample liquidity, although the upward potential for bond prices is limited in the short term[27] Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Risks include geopolitical tensions and the potential for policy changes that exceed expectations, which could impact economic stability[3]

Core Points - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced construction, marking a significant milestone for both Beijing and Tibet's Nyingchi region [1] - The project involves an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and aims to build five hydropower stations with a total installed capacity of 70 to 81 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to three Three Gorges projects [3][4] - The expected annual electricity generation of the project is around 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, positioning it as one of the largest power projects globally [3][4] Economic Impact - The project is projected to boost China's GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points in its first year, with an estimated annual contribution of about 120 billion yuan over its 10-year construction period [4] - The construction is anticipated to provide a significant economic stimulus, particularly benefiting sectors such as construction, cement, and steel [4][6] - The stock market has reacted positively, with a surge in related stocks, particularly in the water conservancy, infrastructure, steel, cement, and engineering machinery sectors, leading to a notable increase in trading volumes [4][6] Investment Opportunities - Several brokerage firms have released reports highlighting investment opportunities in sectors related to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, including civil explosives, tunneling, and geotechnical industries [6] - Key companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and regional leaders in cement and civil explosives, which are expected to benefit from the project [6] - The high technical barriers of the project suggest that investment focus may narrow to a few key beneficiaries after initial widespread market enthusiasm [6]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project and the announcement of ten key industries' growth stabilization plans have positively impacted cyclical sectors such as building materials, infrastructure, steel, and coal, leading to significant market gains [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Building Materials ETF (159745) experienced a strong performance, closing at the daily limit with a net subscription of nearly 700 million shares [1]. - The Infrastructure ETF (159619) also performed well, ultimately rising over 6% [1]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating a clearer bottoming out in cyclical sectors [7]. Group 2: Project Impact - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create significant demand for upstream and downstream industries, particularly in steel, cement, and other construction materials [2]. - The project will involve the construction of five tiered power stations over a ten-year period, which is anticipated to act as a stabilizer against short-term demand fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Policy Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel and building materials, are forthcoming, which is expected to enhance market confidence [3]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies and the introduction of detailed supportive measures are seen as crucial for breaking the negative feedback loop between PPI and CPI, thereby fostering a healthier economic outlook [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The cyclical sectors, particularly building materials, infrastructure, and steel, are poised to benefit directly from the implementation of the "super project," with substantial room for earnings and valuation expansion [7]. - The coal sector, previously underperforming, also shows potential for valuation recovery, with dividend yields exceeding 5%, providing a significant safety margin for investors [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 0.65%, closing at 97.808, as stock market strength reduced liquidity demand for the dollar [3] - Gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3397.09 per ounce, up 1.39% [3][7] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.48%, closing at $65.68 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.31%, closing at $68.38 per barrel [3][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, closing at 24994.14 points, with a peak of 25010.90 points, the highest since February 2022 [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.72%, reaching a new high for the year, with a total trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [6] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology and financial stocks drove the index higher, while sectors like wind power, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant gains [5] - In the A-share market, infrastructure, cement, and hydropower sectors experienced a collective surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [6]

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 戴润芝 环球时报记者 李萌 李迅典】编者的话：美国得克萨斯州本月早些时 候发生严重洪灾，引爆美国各界关于预警缺失、岗位空缺、基建不完善等问题的批评。此后，美国20个 州起诉特朗普政府，控诉其非法叫停美国防洪相关基建项目。今年3月，美国土木工程师协会给美国的 基建设施总体表现评为"不上不下"的C级，其中雨洪管理更是只拿到D级的评级。在美国国内基建面临 资金不足、激烈党争、缺乏长期战略规划等结构性困境的背景下，美国今年5月还宣称与非洲开展"商业 外交"，并将借助私营部门力量推进非洲基建列为关键行动之一。有美国智库反思称，私人资本无法独 自完成"构建全球基础设施未来"这一重大任务。接受《环球时报》记者采访的专家也一致认为，美国的 全球基建承诺更多是出于外交和政治目的，难以真正落实。 美国基建评级为 C ，已是近 30 年来最高 今年3月，美国土木工程师协会给美国基础设施总体表现的评级为C，虽然表现较为平庸，但这已经是 该机构自1998年开始为美国基建评级以来所给出的最高评级了。报告显示，美国在港口和铁路方面取得 了最高评级，分别是B和B-，但在雨洪管理、交通、能源、航空等方面仍徘徊在D级附 ...

上证指数创新高了，几乎是光头中阳！不过白酒、银行却压着指数，节奏控制的是刚刚好。大多数人，目前越来越看不懂行情了。 A股走势分析 从市场的角度而已，指数随时可以继续拉升，跳空缺口是不是要回补也不重要，上证指数目前走得很稳健，根本不用担心。 没有大阳线加速浪之前，大概率不会见顶，市场在分歧里面震荡向上。大多数人已经没有主见了，行为轮动上涨，盈利效应并不是很好。 当下，如果没有更好的选择的情况下，只需要持股不动就行了。一些滞涨的筹码会补涨，等都涨一轮，本轮行情就结束了。 基建产业链肯定也是未来的重心，我们扩大内需的情况下，基建是必不可少的事情。房地产会复苏，不需要大家相信。 指数还有空间，不意味着股票也有空间，天天都有见顶的股票。无论是指数还是股票都要低吸，这件事情不以谁的意志为转移…… 从4月7日上涨后，上证指数已经反弹几个月了，目前周线5连阳。唱空的人已经开始焦虑了，踏空的人也焦虑了，市场制造的就是这种压迫感。 很多人也卖飞了，不过已经有人重新进场了。目前的市场没有加速，上证指数依旧看不到见顶的迹象，行情在分歧里面上涨，在犹豫不决里面不断创新高。 目前，指数距离3600点很近了，只需要白酒、银行加速就可以到了 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher and continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3559.79 points, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 11007.49 points, up 0.86% [1] - The market saw significant trading volume, with the Shanghai index and ChiNext reaching new highs for the year [1] - Infrastructure stocks surged, particularly in cement and building materials, while agricultural banks and cross-border payment sectors faced adjustments [1] Policy and Economic Drivers - Positive news such as the commencement of "super projects" and intensified "anti-involution" policies bolstered market confidence [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, is forthcoming [1][6] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to support structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [6] Investment Strategy - The market is witnessing a shift in investor sentiment, with a marginal turn in capital allocation as doubts about "deflation trades" arise [1] - The traditional barbell strategy of large-cap value and small-cap growth is facing challenges, with large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext index showing significant valuation advantages [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in the ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) and the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF (588360) [2] Sector Performance - The construction materials ETF (159745) saw a strong performance, closing at a limit-up after a significant net subscription of nearly 700 million shares [4] - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost demand for steel, cement, and other construction materials [4] - The cyclical sectors, including construction materials, infrastructure, and steel, are anticipated to benefit directly from the implementation of "super projects" [9] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market conditions resemble those of 2015, where proactive policies may break the negative feedback loop between PPI and CPI, positively impacting economic expectations [7] - The valuation logic for cyclical sectors is shifting from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating a clearer bottoming out [9] - The technology sector in the Hong Kong market is also showing strength, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up 25.01%, outperforming many broad-based indices [3]

【导读】万亿级水电项目点燃水泥、基建行情 中国基金报记者格林 7月21日，港股高位震荡，三大指数集体收涨。其中，恒生指数涨0.68%，报24994.14点，盘中一度突破 25000点；恒生科技指数涨0.84%，报5585.5点；恒生中国企业指数涨0.6%，报9040.2点。全日大市成交 额为2630.12亿港元，较前一交易日有所放量，南向资金净买入额为70.51亿港元。 瑞银发表报告表示，国家市场监督管理总局日前召集美团、饿了么和京东等外卖平台，敦促整改激进促 销行为，期望推动餐饮行业理性竞争及健康可持续发展。该机构指出，监管行动有助提振市场短期情 绪。平台会更注重策略，例如改为发放阶梯式折扣券、提高最低消费门槛、扩大补贴范围至轻食及小吃 等，减轻餐饮业压力，并提振行业需求。 7月21日，恒生行业指数中，原材料业上涨3.4%，能源业上涨2.9%，地产建筑业上涨1.7%。热门个股方 面，美团-W上涨2.75%，美的集团上涨2.12%，京东集团-SW上涨2.11%。 万亿元级利好点燃水泥、基建板块 据新华社报道，7月19日上午，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式在西藏自治区林芝市举行。雅鲁藏布 江下游水电工程位于西藏 ...

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[3] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from 5.8% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative industrial added value for the first half of 2025 was 6.4%, compared to 5.8% for the entire year of 2024[3] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May[3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.0%, significantly higher than the 3.5% for the entire year of 2024[3] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted retail sales, with related products seeing over 20% growth in sales[14] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in the first half of 2025 grew by 2.8%, down from 3.7% previously, with a full-year growth target of around 4.2%[3] - Infrastructure investment showed stable growth, while real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 11.2% in the first half[21] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to negatively impact exports in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to a shift from positive to negative growth in exports[5] - The government is likely to implement more proactive fiscal policies, including increased spending and interest rate cuts, to counteract external pressures[7] - GDP growth is projected to stabilize around 4.7% in the second half, ensuring an annual target of approximately 5.0% is met[7]

Core Insights - The China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) is the world's first national-level exhibition focused on supply chains, showcasing various industries and emphasizing the core value of "linking the world and co-creating the future" [1] Group 1: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The Chain Expo serves as a high-end platform for global enterprises to collaborate, aiming to create a more open, efficient, and sustainable supply chain ecosystem [2] - YTO Express's chairman highlighted the Expo's role in enhancing connectivity among upstream and downstream enterprises, promoting a "win-win chain" [2] - Sinopec showcased its commitment to clean energy supply chains, focusing on natural gas, hydrogen, and other sustainable energy sources, and signed cooperation agreements with nearly 50 companies in the hydrogen sector [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Numerous companies presented cutting-edge technologies and smart solutions at the Expo, demonstrating innovation in the supply chain sector [3] - Ninebot showcased 10 models of short-distance transportation and service robots, emphasizing its full industry chain layout in smart mobility [3] - Inner Mongolia Jishuo Technology introduced a leading "rumen capsule" technology for real-time livestock health monitoring, breaking foreign monopolies and enhancing domestic livestock farming [3] Group 3: Infrastructure and Equipment - China Communications Construction Group displayed major infrastructure projects, including Asia's largest self-propelled dredging vessel, enhancing global industrial chain collaboration [4] Group 4: Cross-Industry Synergy - CITIC Group presented its comprehensive service capabilities across various sectors, aiming to be a "bridge linking the world" [5] - China Resources Group showcased its strategic layout in health, green agriculture, and clean energy, with over 270,000 supply chain enterprises participating in its procurement activities [5] Group 5: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - Tsingtao Brewery emphasized the importance of global supply chain connectivity, leveraging smart cold chain logistics for product freshness [6] - APP (Asia Pulp & Paper) highlighted its role in cross-border industrial chains and ecological innovation, aiming to deepen international cooperation in the supply chain [6] Group 6: Future Outlook - The Chain Expo has evolved into a significant platform for global industrial chain cooperation, promoting a shift from product competition to collaborative ecosystem building [7] - Participating companies believe the Expo enhances technological matchmaking and market expansion, contributing to the resilience and sustainability of global supply chains [7]