Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline on March 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.47 points, down 0.98%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13917.75 points, down 0.75%, and the ChiNext Index at 3164.37 points, down 1.41% [1] - The total trading volume for both markets was 23657.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 7637.56 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached nearly 500 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 198.53 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 38.18 billion yuan, totaling 499.6 billion yuan for the day [2] - The net outflow for the CSI 300 index was 141.69 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net outflow of 217.14 billion yuan [4] Sector Performance - The defense and military industry saw a net inflow of 67.61 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.29%, driven by stocks like China Shipbuilding [6][7] - The power equipment sector had a net inflow of 64.39 billion yuan, increasing by 1.12%, led by TBEA [7] - Other sectors with net inflows included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (30.44 billion yuan, up 0.86%) and non-ferrous metals (29.60 billion yuan, up 0.11%) [7] - Conversely, the non-bank financial sector experienced a net outflow of 72.15 billion yuan, down 1.87%, with stocks like Dongfang Caifu leading the outflow [7] Institutional Activity - Notable institutional buying included stocks such as Sinopec Oilfield Service, which saw a net purchase of 21423.45 million yuan, and CNOOC Services with 15754.82 million yuan [10] - The top 20 stocks by net inflow included various companies, indicating a selective interest from institutional investors [8] Analyst Recommendations - Analysts have recently rated several stocks with potential upside, including Xiangdian Co. with a target price of 20.4 yuan, representing a 44.58% upside from its latest closing price [12] - Other stocks highlighted include Bawei Storage and Neway Valve, with target prices indicating significant potential returns [12]

- The "Six-Cycle Model" identifies economic phases using the three-month difference in medium- and long-term loan pulses (TTM YoY). As of January, the model entered Phase 6, "Monetary Expansion," indicating a defensive allocation strategy[7][11] - The "Analyst Industry Prosperity Index" evaluates industry performance expectations. The index shows that the cyclical and growth sectors are in an expansion phase, with the cyclical sector entering this phase in January 2025[12][13] - The "Industry Relative Strength Index (RS)" ranks industries based on cross-sectional returns. Industries with RS > 90% by April are likely to lead the market. As of February 2026, seven industries, including non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, showed RS > 90% signals[15][16] - The "Style Factor Analysis" evaluates factors like small-cap, value, quality, and growth based on three metrics: odds, trend, and crowding. Small-cap and value factors scored highest, while growth and quality factors showed weaker trends[30][32][36][39] - The "Industry Configuration Model" uses two approaches: the "Industry Prosperity Model" (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowding) and the "Industry Trend Model" (strong trend + low crowding, avoiding low prosperity). March recommendations include cyclical sectors like chemicals and coal[46][48][50] - The "Inventory Cycle Reversal Model" identifies industries in recovery phases with low inventory pressure. Current recommendations include oil services, coal chemicals, and rare metals. Historical backtests show strong absolute and excess returns[55][56][57] - The "Odds and Win Rate Strategies" include three models: "Odds-Enhanced," "Win Rate-Enhanced," and "Odds + Win Rate." These models optimize asset allocation based on risk budgets. Historical performance shows annualized returns of 6.7%-7.9% with low drawdowns[58][61][64]

Steel Industry - The demand recovery in the steel sector post-holiday is expected to take time, with attention on the impact of self-imposed emission reductions by steel companies during the "Two Sessions" and related "anti-involution" policies [1][16] - In February 2026, the national steel industry PMI index was 45.4, indicating ongoing operational pressure, with a significant drop in output index to 44.1 and new order index to 39.5, reflecting weak supply and demand [16][19] - The total steel inventory increased by 43.19% to 18.26 million tons by February 27, 2026, indicating accumulated inventory pressure [27] Copper Industry - Domestic downstream enterprises are gradually resuming operations, but market demand remains limited, with high prices suppressing demand [1][36] - In December 2025, domestic refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.76%, while copper material production was 2.229 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% [36] - LME copper inventory increased by 44.99% to 253,700 tons, and SHFE copper inventory rose by 85.27% to 290,600 tons during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [36][38] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector faced weak supply and demand in February, with a significant increase in domestic inventory and weak prices for electrolytic aluminum [1][43] - Domestic alumina production in December 2025 was 8.011 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.70%, while electrolytic aluminum production was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 2.87% [44] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 6.09% to 465,600 tons, while SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 99.42% to 289,300 tons during the same period [44][46] Precious Metals - Gold prices initially dropped due to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies but later rebounded due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies [1][52] - From January 30 to February 27, 2026, COMEX gold prices increased by 7.92% to $5,296.40 per ounce, while SHFE gold prices decreased by 1.16% to ¥1,147.90 per gram [52] Lithium Industry - The lithium sector is expected to see optimistic demand in March, with supply likely to remain tight, supporting high carbonate lithium prices [2][54] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8.83% to ¥172,500 per ton during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [54][55] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Rare earth prices have risen due to tight supply and strong holding sentiment among sellers, with the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 18.90% to ¥890,000 per ton [2][71] - The price of tungsten concentrate increased by 31.00% to ¥786,000 per ton during the same period [77]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will see the establishment of a dual control carbon management system in China, marking a significant shift in carbon market operations from auxiliary tools to core execution vehicles for carbon control [3][4][7] - The carbon market is evolving from a platform for operation to a central mechanism for emission reduction, with a focus on expanding coverage to key high-emission industries [11][12] - The carbon market's role is increasingly recognized as essential for achieving national emission reduction targets, with significant progress in regulatory frameworks and market mechanisms [4][12] Group 2 - The carbon information disclosure system is gradually being standardized, enhancing the transparency and quality of carbon data among listed companies [16][19] - The quality of carbon emission disclosures among listed companies is improving, with a notable increase in the disclosure rate of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in large-cap indices [19][24] - The trading activity in the national carbon market has reached new heights, with significant increases in transaction volumes and values, indicating a robust market environment [26][27] Group 3 - High carbon intensity industries such as steel and cement are showing opportunities for low-carbon transformation, with characteristics such as high market capitalization and low return on equity [12][19] - The performance of low-carbon combinations in high-emission sectors like cement and steel is demonstrating significant excess returns compared to high-carbon combinations [18][19] - The integration of carbon intensity factors into investment strategies is becoming increasingly relevant, with evidence suggesting that high-carbon strategies are yielding diminishing excess returns [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with an estimated price range of 100,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3][40][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 3, 2026, the SHFE main contract price fell slightly to 102,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,170 yuan or 1.13% from the previous trading day. The LME price continued to decline to 13,083 US dollars/ton. The SHFE flat - copper discount narrowed to - 215 yuan/ton, strengthening the basis compared to the previous day. However, the LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 74.01 US dollars/ton [1][36][41]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME position decreased by 3,474 lots to 312,188 lots on March 2, 2026. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,624 tons to 300,505 tons [1][37][41]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Supply is continuously expanding. The Florence copper mine project of Teck Resources in the US has been put into production, with an annual output of 85 million pounds of cathode copper. The Chapi copper mine project in Peru has produced its first batch of cathode copper, with a planned annual output of 10,000 tons. The Briggs copper mine of AlmaMetals plans to expand its resource volume, and the import of recycled copper increased by 3.96% year - on - year in 2025 [2][39][41]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side shows obvious differentiation. The expansion of the new - energy vehicle industry drives the growth of upstream thermal management components, with the sales volume of air - conditioning boxes in China increasing by 26.7% year - on - year in 2025. However, the overall downstream recovery is slow, and the procurement and sales sentiment in the power and construction sectors is stable, which is difficult to provide strong support [2][42][43]. - **Inventory Side**: The overall inventory has increased. The LME inventory has increased to 300,505 tons, the SHFE inventory remains at 257,675 tons, and the COMEX inventory has slightly increased to 601,716 short tons. The increase in warehouse receipts reflects the pressure of abundant supply [2][41][42]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - **Trend**: The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks [3][40][45]. - **Driving Reasons**: - **Supply - side Changes**: New mine production and expansion (such as the US Florence project) increase the supply pressure [3][41][42]. - **Demand - side Changes**: Although the demand for new - energy vehicles is growing, the overall recovery is slow, which is not enough to offset the increase in supply [3][41][43]. - **Macro - sentiment**: The increase in inventory and intraday price fluctuations reflect the market's concern about supply over - capacity [3][44][45]. - **Price Change Range**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 100,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3][45].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the industrial sector is experiencing high growth in volume and price, particularly in non-ferrous metals and transportation equipment manufacturing, while sectors like coal mining and pharmaceuticals are showing signs of improvement from lower levels [5][6] - The manufacturing PMI for February 2026 is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, while the non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points [6][10] - Consumer confidence has recovered to a near two-year high, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [6][10] Group 2 - In the advanced manufacturing sector, prices for new energy products are showing divergence, with strong sales in engineering machinery and heavy trucks, supported by favorable policies [6] - The report highlights that the banking sector's non-performing loan ratio is stable at 1.496%, with net interest margins remaining consistent, indicating a stable financial environment [6] - The energy sector is experiencing a rebound in oil and coal prices due to geopolitical risks and supply constraints, with significant increases in precious metals and strategic minor metals prices [6][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huatai-PineBridge ETF (159652) in the non-ferrous metals sector, which opened down by 2.86% at 1.968 yuan on March 4 [1] - Major holdings within the ETF experienced varied performance, with Zijin Mining down 2.99%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.00%, and Northern Rare Earth down 3.29%, while China Aluminum saw an increase of 1.43% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index return, managed by Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 103.23% since its inception on January 16, 2023, and a 4.21% return over the past month [1]

Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices have rebounded; pork and nickel prices have declined [2] Midstream - PX and pig product processing rates have increased; coal consumption in power plants has risen [3] Downstream - Sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined; the number of domestic flights has decreased [3] Key Events Macro - event - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held on March 3. The conference will be held from March 4 to March 11 [1] Industry - specific event - On March 3, six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Comprehensive Utilization of Photovoltaic Modules", supporting related enterprises to declare for honors and guiding financial institutions to provide credit support [1] - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, European natural gas prices soared on March 3. The Dutch TTF natural gas futures price for April delivery rose 29.9% to 57.840 euros per megawatt - hour, and the UK natural gas futures price rose 33.92% to 147.430 pence per thermal unit [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 3/3 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2298.6 yuan/ton | 0.94% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.4 yuan/kg | 4.61% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8950.0 yuan/ton | 1.70% | | | Spot price of cotton | 16594.7 yuan/ton | - 0.52% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 17.2 yuan/kg | - 4.44% | | | Spot price of copper | 101821.7 yuan/ton | 0.22% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24386.0 yuan/ton | - 1.04% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 23966.7 yuan/ton | 2.46% | | | Spot price of nickel | 139516.7 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16712.5 yuan/ton | 0.53% | | Black metals | Spot price of rebar | 3138.5 yuan/ton | 0.98% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 767.0 yuan/ton | - 0.38% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3325.0 yuan/ton | 0.45% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.4 yuan/square meter | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16866.7 yuan/ton | 0.20% | | | China Plastic City price index | 809.2 | 3.14% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 71.2 dollars/barrel | 7.42% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 77.7 dollars/barrel | 9.32% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3386.0 yuan/ton | 11.90% | | | Coal price | 794.0 yuan/ton | - 0.87% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5396.3 yuan/ton | 1.35% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 7125.0 yuan/ton | 6.21% | | | Spot price of urea | 1858.8 yuan/ton | 2.27% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1202.9 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real estate | National cement price index | 128.0 | - 1.11% | | | Building materials composite index | 113.7 | - 0.03% | | | National concrete price index | 89.8 | 0.00% | [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions are the main drivers of price fluctuations in various commodities. The resolution of military confrontations and the resumption of strait navigation are crucial for the market to return to normal [2]. - The performance of different commodities is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Investors should pay close attention to geopolitical developments and policy changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent oil prices rose sharply, and SC crude oil hit the daily limit. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and supply disruptions are the main reasons. Geopolitical risk premiums will remain high until the military confrontation subsides and strait navigation resumes [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Multiple contracts of FU and LU followed the SC crude oil main contract and rose to the daily limit. The core logic has shifted to the geopolitical conflict. Supply - tightening expectations are strong, and future trends depend on the war situation and the duration of strait blockage [22]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by the Middle - East situation, asphalt prices strengthened, but the increase was milder than that of crude oil and fuel oil. It is in a pattern of "strong cost, weak supply - demand", and will mainly follow cost fluctuations with limited upside space [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market was narrowly volatile, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. In the context of the spring plowing season, the inventory of production enterprises may decline, but the price increase may be limited. The market is expected to oscillate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The night - session price rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a reduction in supply. In the short term, the market may experience pulse - like increases, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the evolution of geopolitical risks [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fell significantly. The short - term volatility increased, and the subsequent trend is determined by the war situation. Caution is advised when participating [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices declined. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased economic growth risks and dragged down copper prices. High inventories and uncertainties may cause copper prices to test the MA60 moving - average support [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The market is concerned about supply contractions in the Middle East. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and geopolitical guidance should be continuously monitored [5]. - **Zinc**: The dollar rebounded, and there were concerns about liquidity. The zinc market lacked upward momentum. High zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the inventory increased significantly. The overall rebound of Shanghai zinc is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: The lead market is in an oversupply situation, with weak external and strong internal prices. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction, but the actual inventory - reduction rhythm is not smooth. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. The market was actively traded. The nickel market lacks independent driving forces and follows external sentiment, gradually weakening [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices continued to decline. The short - term price may turn to oscillation. Attention should be paid to the MA60 moving - average. Geopolitical conflicts may affect the semiconductor output in East Asia [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures market was weak. The supply increased, and the demand improved marginally. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in market risk preferences [16]. - **Coke**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. The first round of price cuts may be implemented. The inventory decreased slightly. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price may be driven up by coking coal [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The intraday price oscillated strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts. The total inventory decreased significantly, and there is a certain expectation of inventory replenishment. The price has improved, and geopolitical news should be monitored [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday price oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts are beneficial to the cost of manganese silicon. The demand is slowly increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The intraday price oscillated upward. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [20]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International events have increased the cost of propylene. The market sentiment has improved, and the inventory reduction has accelerated. However, the high inventory in the polyolefin market poses a supply pressure, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may increase [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Geopolitical conflicts have made PVC prices oscillate strongly. The industry inventory is high, and the demand is in the recovery stage. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is expected to operate in the bottom range [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The Middle - East situation affects PX and PTA through oil prices and supply concerns. The current PTA processing margin is under pressure, and the price and spread are affected by the Middle - East situation [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a possibility of phased improvement in supply - demand in the second quarter. The Iranian situation has multiple positive effects on ethylene glycol, and the development of the situation should be monitored [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans oscillated strongly at a high level. Brazilian soybean production is expected to decrease. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has increased. The market shows an oil - strong - powder - weak state. Rapeseed meal has stabilized [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Domestic vegetable oils are generally strong, following energy prices. The short - term market is driven by the uncertainty of Middle - East energy. The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products is not tight, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [36]. - **Corn**: The prices at northern ports increased, and the inventory at north - south ports is at a low level. US corn oscillated strongly at the bottom. Dalian corn futures are expected to be strong in the short term [38]. - **Hogs**: The main contract of hogs continued to decline. The spot price fell, and the central government plans to purchase frozen pork. The pig price is at a historical low, and the inventory pressure needs to be relieved. Long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures market adjusted weakly. The spot price adjusted weakly after the Spring Festival. The long - term egg inventory is in a downward trend, and long positions can be considered at low levels [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated at a high level. The short - term demand feedback is average. The supply of cotton in the future is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" period [41]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production in India and Thailand shows different trends. In China, the market focuses on the expected difference in production. The short - term sugar price faces certain pressure [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price rose significantly. The post - festival demand in the northwest is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. The de - stocking speed may be affected [43]. - **Timber**: The futures price oscillated. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe the market [44]. - **Pulp**: The domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, but the demand is average. The mid - term trend is expected to oscillate within a range [45]. Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies are actively raising prices. The short - term futures market may remain strong. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the Middle - East supply chain disruption and its spill - over effects [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell significantly, and overseas stock markets also declined. Geopolitical factors have increased market inflation concerns and raised the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the rotation of market styles [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed differentiation. The market may choose a direction after the policy tone of the Two Sessions. The strategy is to oscillate on a single side. The strategy of flattening the yield curve by shorting T and longing TL has a certain cost - performance ratio [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on March 4, 2026 [1][3][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 101,860, LME price is 13,101, and the ratio is 7.87; March domestic price is 102,340, LME price is 13,145, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.86, with a profit of - 1476.86, and a spot export profit of - 55.12 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 24,390, LME price is 3,279, and the ratio is 7.44; March domestic price is 24,430, LME price is 3,299, and the ratio is 5.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.25, with a profit of - 2678.48 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 23,950, LME price is 3,186, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 23,990, LME price is 3,182, and the ratio is 7.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.29, with a profit of - 2471.36 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 133,700, LME price is 17,022, and the ratio is 7.85. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.00, with a profit of - 206.52 [1] - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 16,650, LME price is 1,916, and the ratio is 8.68; March domestic price is 16,855, LME price is 1,965, and the ratio is 12.51. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.51, with a profit of 314.52 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 1400, - 1160, - 1110, and - 880 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 620, 1137, 1664, and 2190 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 410, - 350, - 310, and - 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 227, 360, 493, and 626 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 465, - 380, - 330, and - 280 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 233, 367, 501, and 634 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 5, 10, 25, and 95 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 420, and 525 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are - 4880, - 4480, - 4330, and - 4170 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - 1 contracts is - 3790, and the theoretical spread is 8148 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 1815 and 415 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 535 and 893 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 390 and - 20 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 189 and 263 [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 195 and 190 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 145 and 257 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - continuous) are 4.19, 4.27, 6.07, 0.98, 1.42, and 0.69 respectively; for London (triple - continuous) are 3.96, 3.98, 6.69, 0.99, 1.68, and 0.59 respectively [5]