Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [10][11]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [12][13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [15][16]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [20][21]. - For ferroalloys, the overall price is under pressure, and long - position holders need to be cautious. Low - value call option opportunities can be considered [23]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to rise, and a long - position operation on the main contract is considered [25][26]. - For fuel oil, the price is expected to be strong, and a long - position operation on the main contract is considered [28]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30]. - For natural rubber, focus on long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [33]. - For PVC, it is in a bottom - oscillating state [34]. - For urea, consider deploying long positions opportunistically [35][36]. - For PX, be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs and macro - policies [37]. - For PTA, consider range - bound operations and opportunities to narrow the processing margin [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, and pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. - For staple fiber, participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. - For bottle chips, participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs [43]. - For soda ash, the short - term market trend is weakly stable, and do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [44][45]. - For glass, the short - term may have bullish sentiment fermentation, but do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [46]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply and demand is relatively loose, and long - position holders need to control positions [47][49]. - For pulp, the market is in a stalemate in June, and a turnaround may occur in August [50][51]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale clearance of mine - end capacity [52]. - For copper, consider a long - position operation on the main contract of Shanghai copper [54][55]. - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate [56]. - For nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [57]. - For soybean meal and soybean oil, be on the sidelines for soybean meal, and pay attention to low - value call option opportunities for soybean oil [59]. - For cotton, take a wait - and - see approach [64]. - For sugar, consider batch - wise long - position operations [67][68]. - For apples, take a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to future production data [71][72]. - For live pigs, consider long - position arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually closing out short positions in near - month contracts [78]. - For corn and corn starch, the bottom of corn has strong support, and temporarily observe corn starch [80][81]. - For logs, be wary of bullish sentiment disturbances as the 07 contract approaches the delivery month [82]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and there was a net investment of 67.5 billion yuan on a single day. The social financing scale and money supply data in the first five months of 2025 were released [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Guangzhou government proposed measures to boost consumption, and the real - estate policy was optimized [8][9][10]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [10][11]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed up, and the silver main contract closed down. US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data were released [12]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures can be considered [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coils) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices were reported, and the industry supply - demand situation was analyzed [14][15]. - The downward trend of the real - estate industry suppresses the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils. The current price valuation is low, and investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [15][16]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices and industry supply - demand situation were reported [17]. - The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. The price valuation is high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The industry supply - demand situation is that there is an oversupply, and the market sentiment is bearish [19][20]. - The short - term may stop falling, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [20][21]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts closed up. The supply - demand situation and inventory data were reported [22]. - The short - term demand may peak, and the supply is excessive. The overall price is under pressure, and long - position holders need to be cautious [22][23]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Multiple market data and news were reported, including CFTC data, Baker Hughes data, and the trading volume of call options [24]. - The negotiation between China and the US is over, and the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies. The price of crude oil is expected to rise, and a long - position operation on the main contract can be considered [25][26]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose significantly following crude oil. The market supply - demand situation and price changes were reported [27][28]. - The decrease in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the recovery of global trade demand are favorable for fuel oil. A long - position operation on the main contract can be considered [28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract closed up. The supply - demand situation and cost factors were analyzed [29]. - Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed mixed performance. The supply - demand situation, inventory data, and import data were reported [31][32]. - Focus on long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [33]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract closed up. The supply - demand situation, cost - profit situation, and inventory data were reported [34]. - It is in a bottom - oscillating state [34]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract closed up. The supply - demand situation and inventory data were reported [35]. - Consider deploying long positions opportunistically [35][36]. PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost factors, and price spreads were reported [37]. - Be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs and macro - policies [37]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost factors, and inventory data were reported [38][39]. - Consider range - bound operations and opportunities to narrow the processing margin [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, inventory data, and downstream demand were reported [40]. - It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. Staple Fiber - Last trading day, the staple fiber 2507 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost - benefit situation, and downstream demand were reported [41][42]. - Participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2509 main contract rose. The supply - demand situation, cost - benefit situation, and downstream demand were reported [43]. - Participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs [43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2509 contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, production, and inventory data were reported [44]. - The short - term market trend is weakly stable, and do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [44][45]. Glass - Last trading day, the main 2509 contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, price changes in different regions, and market sentiment were reported [46]. - The short - term may have bullish sentiment fermentation, but do not over - pursue long positions on short - term rebounds [46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2509 contract closed down. The production, inventory data, and supply - demand situation were reported [47][48][49]. - The overall supply and demand is relatively loose, and long - position holders need to control positions [47][49]. Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2507 contract closed down. The inventory data, market situation, and price changes of different pulp types were reported [50][51]. - The market is in a stalemate in June, and a turnaround may occur in August [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, market sentiment, and price factors were reported [52]. - The price is difficult to reverse before large - scale clearance of mine - end capacity [52]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly. The spot price, market situation, and price changes were reported [53]. - The Sino - US negotiation is favorable for the market sentiment, and a long - position operation on the main contract of Shanghai copper can be considered [54][55]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply - demand situation, mine - end situation, and price trend were reported [56]. - The price is expected to oscillate [56]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell slightly. The supply - demand situation, cost factors, and price trend were reported [57]. - The price is expected to oscillate [57]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal closed down slightly, and soybean oil closed up. The spot price, supply - demand situation, inventory data, and consumption situation were reported [58][59]. - Be on the sidelines for soybean meal, and pay attention to low - value call option opportunities for soybean oil [59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The global and domestic supply - demand situation, and the US cotton data were reported [62][63]. - Take a wait - and - see approach [64]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar showed a significant bottom - recovering trend. The domestic and foreign supply - demand situation, production data, and price factors were reported [65][67]. - Consider batch - wise long - position operations [67][68]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures showed a trend of rising and then falling. The production situation, inventory data, and price information were reported [69]. - Take a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to future production data [71][72]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply - demand situation, production data, and price trend were reported [73][74]. - Consider long - position arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [74]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas fell. The supply - demand situation, production data, and price trend were reported [75][78]. - Consider gradually closing out short positions in near - month contracts [78]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, the corn main contract closed up, and the corn starch main contract closed down. The supply - demand situation, inventory data, and consumption situation were reported [79][80]. - The bottom of corn has strong support, and temporarily observe corn starch [80][81]. Logs - Last trading day, the main 2507 contract closed up. The arrival and inventory data of New Zealand logs were reported [82]. - Be wary of bullish sentiment disturbances as the 07 contract approaches the delivery month [82].

2025年06月16日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周五贵金属市场因伊以冲突再次冲高；基本面：美国宣布 23 日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机 冰箱在列；美国 5 月 PPI 同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%，5 月份美国 PPI 整体涨幅依然温和，核心 PPI 创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平；美国 6 月 7 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 24.8 万人，高于预期的 24.2 万 人，也高于前值 24.7 万人，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重新流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1175 吨，减少 4 吨；上期所黄金库存 18 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银 库存 1210 吨，比前一交易日减少 16 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存减少 28 吨至 1319 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15495 吨，比前一交易日增加 8 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 3 月白银进口减至 120 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14729 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high, and the uncertainty of the situation between Iran and Israel continues, which has a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets [1][12][13]. - The majority of financial data in May fell short of expectations, with corporate debt gradually becoming short - term, and the willingness of residents to actively increase debt remaining low. There is a need to observe the sustainability of the rebound in M1 growth rate [2][23][24]. - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - The new bio - fuel policy in the United States will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing, which will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump hopes that Iran and Israel can reach an agreement, and the 6 - month consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan has rebounded, with inflation expectations significantly falling. However, due to the impact of oil prices, US inflation still faces upward risks. Gold prices are driven by the military conflict between Israel and Iran, and the short - term market continues to focus on the situation in the Middle East [12][13]. - Investment advice: The short - term trend of gold prices is dominated by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with increased volatility, so attention should be paid to risks [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The "Brigade of the Righteous" in Iraq warns that if the US intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, it will attack US interests in the region. Trump claims that Iran and Israel "will reach an agreement" to suspend the conflict. The geopolitical risk remains high, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The consumer confidence index in June increased, and inflation expectations decreased. However, the intensification of the Middle East conflict may lead to concerns about re - inflation. If the oil price rises to $100 per barrel, the CPI in June may rebound to around 3%, increasing the difficulty of the Fed's decision - making. US stocks still face the risk of correction before the situation improves [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: Geopolitical risks increase inflation risks, and US stocks still have a risk of correction before the situation improves [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in May fell short of expectations. The fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. However, short - term bonds will fluctuate in the near term, and it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Pay appropriate attention to T when going long on the long - end [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock index futures evenly to cope with the rotational pattern [27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US EPA proposed to increase the bio - fuel blending volume from 2026 to 2027, which will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing. It will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. - Investment advice: US soybean oil still has room to rise, and palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will follow suit, but the increase in rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak [32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net profit of Cristal Union in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 62%. The supply in Europe is sufficient, and the import from Ukraine is large, resulting in low sugar prices. The expected decline in Brazilian sugar cane production in 2025 increases the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production [33][35]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar may rebound in the short term, but the overall weak pattern is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, the quotation of processed sugar, and the performance of the external market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The inventory of port cotton continues to decline, and the USDA June report has a slightly positive impact on the cotton market, but the overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. The downstream textile industry is in a off - season, which drags down cotton prices [37][39][40]. - Investment advice: The cotton market may fluctuate repeatedly. A cautious and slightly optimistic view is held on the future market, and attention should be paid to macro - cotton dynamics and downstream demand changes [41]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The five major varieties continue to de - stock slightly, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil shows a downward trend, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [42][44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt a rebound hedging strategy for the spot end [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The expected increase in the US bio - fuel blending standard will drive up the price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase, and the spot basis will continue to be under pressure [46][48]. - Investment advice: The prices of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis of soybean meal will remain weak [48]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spread between cassava starch and corn starch has narrowed. The supply - demand situation of corn starch may be gradually improving, and the spread between cassava starch and corn starch may temporarily stabilize [49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [50]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of wheat has fluctuated, and the substitution advantage of wheat has slightly increased. The spot price of corn is expected to rise first and then fall, and the basis is expected to strengthen [50][51]. - Investment advice: For the 07 contract, speculative long positions are recommended to take profits opportunely. For the 09 contract, shorting is not recommended, and it is expected to fluctuate with a first - strong - then - weak trend. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting the 11 and 01 contracts at high prices [51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory is 312.9 million tons, and large - scale discount transactions are gradually emerging. The market is oscillating weakly [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is oscillating weakly at a low level. The cancellation of the price limit of downstream stainless steel has released market pessimism. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron is in excess, and the medium - term price of nickel is expected to decline [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is possible to sell put options on dips. In the medium term, attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting at high prices in Q3 [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME warehouse in Hong Kong is expected to receive the first batch of copper next week. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical war may suppress copper prices through the impact on the US dollar index. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is difficult to decline trend - wise [56][59][60]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, it is recommended to wait and see as copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. For arbitrage, wait for the opportunity of positive inter - period arbitrage of Shanghai copper [60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - After the rebound, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is insufficient, and the basis of the spot market is weakening. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the market may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current level. Existing short positions can be held, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Anhui Huasheng's polysilicon wafer technical transformation and expansion project has been accepted for environmental assessment. The spot trading volume is low, and the price of some products is declining. The supply in June is expected to be 960,000 tons, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The decision of leading enterprises on production reduction will have a major impact on the market [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: Before the leading enterprises reduce production, the market is bearish. A strategy of short - term shorting and long - term going long is recommended, and attention should be paid to the position management [65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in major producing areas has increased. The supply in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the spot price is difficult to rebound significantly [66][67]. - Investment advice: The futures market has rebounded. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly after the rebound. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The silver pricing coefficient of lead concentrates in June has not changed. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be weak until July. The short - term rise of lead prices is temporary, and the medium - term demand may increase marginally [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips, paying attention to the pressure around 17,000 yuan. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for both inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc oxide enterprises are facing environmental inspections, resulting in production cuts. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. The inventory is at an inflection point, and the price is expected to decline [71][72]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, look for opportunities to short at high prices and increase positions appropriately on rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period spread, and maintain the strategy of positive internal - external arbitrage in the medium term [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has risen slightly, affected by the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the shutdown of a French nuclear power plant. The short - term market needs to pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [73][74]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [74]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Israel has attacked Iranian energy infrastructure, and the US oil rig count has decreased. The risk of supply in the Middle East has increased, and oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [75][76][77]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term as the market has not fully priced in the geopolitical conflict risk [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has risen, but the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the supply is expected to increase. The short - term rise is mainly due to the impact of crude oil prices. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [78][79][80]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase long positions directly in the short term, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. However, the industry is under supply pressure, and the processing fee is under pressure. Some large factories have plans to reduce production [81][82]. - Investment advice: The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is possible to establish long positions for expanding the bottle - chip processing fee at low valuations [82]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The trading of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable. The supply is relatively stable, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The demand is affected by the inventory of alumina and the wait - and - see attitude of non - aluminum downstream and traders [83]. - Investment advice: The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount of the 09 contract will limit the downward space [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak [84]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of pulp have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has risen, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market trading is average [87]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of PVC have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [87]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market is general, and the supply is expected to remain high in the short term. The demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to decline, and the market is bearish [88][89]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term expansion cycle, the strategy of shorting soda ash at high prices is still maintained [89]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The spot price of float glass has continued to decline, and the market demand is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify [90][91]. - Investment advice: Before the inventory of original - sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced, the spot price of float glass still has room for downward adjustment. The short - term market may be affected by the overall risk preference, and the rebound driven by short - covering is difficult to sustain [91].

Group 1 - The company announced a share repurchase plan with an expected amount between RMB 400 million and RMB 600 million [1][2] - The repurchase will be conducted through centralized bidding, with a maximum price set at RMB 12.01 per share, later adjusted to RMB 11.82 per share [1][2] - The repurchased shares will account for 0.04% of the total share capital, with a total of 594,100 shares repurchased at an average price between RMB 8.40 and RMB 8.44 per share [2] Group 2 - The repurchase plan is set to be approved at the 2024 annual general meeting and will be valid for 12 months following the approval [1] - The purpose of the repurchase includes reducing registered capital and supporting employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [1] - The company will adhere to relevant regulations and will disclose progress on the repurchase in a timely manner [2]

Group 1 - The company completed its share repurchase plans for 2023 and 2024, repurchasing a total of 34,165,685 shares at an average price of 7.63 CNY per share, using a total of 19,721.07 million CNY [1][2] - The repurchased shares will be used for employee stock incentives and to reduce the company's registered capital, with up to 10 million shares allocated for stock incentives [1][2] - The company has established a dedicated securities account for the repurchased shares, which will be canceled on June 16, 2025, resulting in a reduction of total shares from 1,391,045,207 to 1,356,879,522 [2][4] Group 2 - The repurchase execution was in accordance with the approved plans, with no discrepancies noted between the actual execution and the disclosed repurchase plans [2] - The company held board meetings and a shareholder meeting to approve the cancellation of the repurchased shares and the reduction of registered capital [2] - As of June 13, 2025, the total shares in the dedicated account will be 44,165,685, with 34,165,685 shares set for cancellation [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on global markets, leading to declines in U.S. stock indices and significant increases in gold and oil prices due to heightened risk aversion and supply concerns [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.58%, Nasdaq down 1.08%, and S&P 500 down 0.97% [3]. - The "fear index," or the S&P 500 volatility index, surged above 20, reaching its highest level since late May [3]. - The technology sector, represented by the seven major tech companies, also experienced declines, with the index down 0.86% and notable drops in stocks like Apple and Nvidia, which fell over 1% [6]. Group 2: Energy and Commodity Markets - International gold prices rose significantly, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.69% to $3459.8 per ounce, and London gold spot prices up 1.23% to $3427.71 per ounce [11][12]. - Oil prices surged due to concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply, with NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rising by 6.67% to $72.58 per barrel and ICE Brent crude oil futures up 6.52% to $73.88 per barrel [11][12]. - Energy stocks saw a collective increase, with Houston energy stocks rising over 100% and U.S. energy stocks up over 62% [7].

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFTIS) is promoting engineering consulting, construction services, and environmental services at the ongoing China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha [1] - The theme for the 2025 CIFTIS is "Digital Intelligence Navigation, Service Trade Renewal," focusing on the digital and intelligent era [1] - Major industry leaders such as Beijing Construction Group and China Petroleum are confirmed to participate, showcasing smart living solutions and green development initiatives [1][2] Group 2 - Beijing Construction Group has a history of over 70 years and has been involved in significant projects like the Tiananmen Square architectural complex and Daxing Airport [2] - The company aims to transform from a "city builder" to a "lifestyle provider" at the 2025 CIFTIS, enhancing the "Beijing Intelligent Manufacturing" brand [2] - The event serves as a platform for enterprises to establish deep cooperation, promoting high-quality development in service trade [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising rapidly, with Trump indicating that Israel may attack Iran, which will lead to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and a strong rise in gold prices [2][3][16][20]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the initial jobless claims and May PPI being weaker than expected, which affects the performance of various financial and commodity markets [15][16][23][24]. - Different commodity markets have different trends. For example, the soybean meal in the agricultural product market is relatively strong but is expected to fluctuate around 3000; the sugar market is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in Brazilian sugar production; the coal price in the black metal market may experience a second dip; and the silicon material market in the non - ferrous metal market is facing price decline risks [30][36][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said that Israel's attack on Iran is "very likely", and the US economic data is weak. The initial jobless claims and May PPI are weaker than expected. Gold prices are expected to be strong with increased volatility [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that Israel may attack Iran accelerates the rise of geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the unemployment benefit application data is weak. The US stock market is still in a volatile situation, and it is not recommended to chase high [22][23][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 1193 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The long - term bonds lack the driving force to break through directly. The market is expected to be volatile in the near future, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raise the soybean production forecasts of Brazil and Argentina respectively. The domestic soybean meal is stronger than the external market but is expected to fluctuate around 3000 [28][29][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is expected to propose a biodiesel quota lower than 5.25 billion gallons. Investors holding long positions are advised to exit [31][33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The market expects an increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [36][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market is temporarily stable, but it may experience a second dip due to factors such as weak power consumption demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron plan to merge. The iron ore price is expected to decline slightly with the weakening of terminal demand, but the decline will be gentle [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The short - to medium - term pig price may be pessimistic, but the supply pressure may ease in the third to fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased, but the performance of building materials and coils is differentiated. The steel price is expected to be weak with fluctuations [44]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The CS07 - C07 is expected to be in low - level fluctuation [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises has decreased, and the corn inventory is tightening. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with fluctuations [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The price of N - type silicon wafers has slightly decreased. The spot market is bearish in the short term, but the price decline may stimulate silicon material manufacturers to cut production. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is considered [49][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, and the demand is still weak. The disk price is expected to be in low - level fluctuation, and shorting on rebounds can be considered [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The short - term fundamental support exists, and it is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used to replace futures positions, and shorting on rebounds can be considered in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The inventory pressure in June has been significantly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price has oscillated upwards, and the supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has fluctuated widely, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the arrival situation in Shanghai [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and the disk is expected to be weak with fluctuations [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration organizes hydrogen energy pilot projects. The CEA is expected to be volatile in the short term [68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The demand for PTA is in the off - season, and the supply has increased. The short - term price faces pressure, and long - term long positions can be considered on dips [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount on the disk will limit the downward space [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline. The disk is expected to be volatile [78][79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC has slightly increased, and the disk is expected to be volatile [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The pre - sales of urea production enterprises have decreased. The urea price is expected to be weak in the long term, and attention can be paid to the possibility of policy relaxation [80][82]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The supply pressure of bottle chips is large, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to build long positions on dips to expand the processing fee [85]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price has declined significantly, and the market is in weak and stable adjustment. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term [86]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price has slightly decreased. The demand will decline seasonally, and the price is expected to be weak [87][88].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the major financial sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. In the bond market, the short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens, and the trend is relatively strong. In the precious metals market, gold rises due to factors such as lower - than - expected US inflation and Middle - East geopolitical tensions. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, major indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3402.32 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2506 and IH2506 rising 0.89% and 0.79% respectively, and IC2506 and IM2506 rising 0.75% and 0.83% respectively. The large - financial sector strengthened, and the basic metals, insurance, and automobile sectors led the gains, while the daily chemical, port, and pharmaceutical sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: In domestic news, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting made progress. Overseas, the latest US inflation data remained moderate, with the May CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. It is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the day was 509 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank market interest rate was slightly affected, and the long - term capital interest rate was slightly higher [5][6]. - **Policy**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting reached a framework consensus. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens. If there are no sudden changes in trade negotiations this week, the treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the capital situation in mid - to - late June. Unilateral strategy: appropriately allocate long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the TS2509 contract's positive arbitrage strategy. For the curve strategy, there is more room to steepen the curve in the medium - term [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation growth was lower than expected, and Trump continued to call on the Fed to cut interest rates. The Middle - East situation heated up, driving up the price of gold. The international gold price rose 0.97% to $3355.005 per ounce, while the international silver price showed a different trend, closing at $36.215 per ounce with a 0.85% increase [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the context of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Currently, trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts disturb the market. Gold is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3200 - $3400 per ounce in the short - term. It is recommended to continuously sell out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. For silver, pay attention to the flow of speculative funds [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotes**: As of June 11, the spot quotes of major shipping companies showed different ranges. The SCFIS European line index rose 0.5% as of June 2, and the SCFI composite index rose 30.68% as of May 30 [13]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 10, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US showed certain trends in the manufacturing and service sectors [14]. - **Logic**: The futures market fluctuated. The 90 - day tariff freeze period will be extended, which is beneficial to the 08 contract. If shipping companies raise spot prices, the 08 contract may rise. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider buying the main contract on dips, with the price expected to fluctuate between 1900 - 2200 [14]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, but the spot trading weakened due to high prices [15]. - **Macro**: The spread between COMEX and LME widened again, and the US continued to replenish copper stocks, which boosted copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper in May increased. It is expected to decrease slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper showed different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory continued to increase, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic**: The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" makes the copper price fluctuate in the short - term. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, but the spot trading was mediocre [18]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The initial consumption of zinc showed a slight recovery, but the terminal demand was expected to be weak after the peak season [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [22]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock or decline. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 23000 [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The actual trading was light [23]. - **Supply**: The supply recovery progress was slow, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The ban on tin ore transportation in Thailand may affect the domestic supply [23][25]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The solder开工 rate increased slightly in April, but the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Logic**: The slow supply recovery and improved macro - sentiment drive up the tin price, but the demand is expected to be weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a short - selling strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [25]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased slightly, while the average price of imported nickel increased slightly [26]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [26]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, but the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [26]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Logic**: The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the cost support of refined nickel is slightly loose. The medium - term supply is loose, and the short - term market lacks driving force. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 126000 [28]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [29]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore was still tight, the price of nickel iron was weak and stable, and the price of chrome iron was weak [29][30]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to be slightly higher than that in May, and the overall supply is in an oversupply pattern [30]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased, and the futures inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market is affected by the cost and demand. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000 [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still obvious [32]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the demand may face pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased last week, with the upstream and trading inventory increasing and the downstream inventory decreasing [33]. - **Logic**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term market still has pressure. - **Operation Suggestion**: Observe the performance around 62,000 yuan first [34][35]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable with a slight increase, and the basis weakened [36]. - **Supply**: The steel production decreased slightly from the high level, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel decreased, affected by the off - season and tariffs [37]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory was approaching the inflection point of accumulation, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support of steel was weak, and the profit of different steel products varied [39]. - **View**: The steel price rebounded recently, but the overall demand is expected to be weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [40]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased slightly [41]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures price decreased slightly [41]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder was 57 yuan per ton [41]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [41]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [41][42]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [42]. - **View**: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - to - long - term is bearish [42]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [43][45]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal mine production decreased slightly, and the Mongolian coal price decline slowed down [45]. - **Demand**: The coking plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand still had some resilience [44][46]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [44][46]. - **View**: The coking coal futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are lagging. Adopt an interval operation strategy [45][46]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly, affected by environmental protection [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline [48]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48]. - **View**: The coke futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are still loose. Adopt an interval operation strategy [48]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The price of ferrosilicon in the main production areas was stable [49]. - **Futures**: The ferrosilicon futures price was stable [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of ferrosilicon was difficult to stabilize, and the profit was negative [49][50]. - **Supply**: The production of ferrosilicon increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia [50]. - **Demand**: The demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking was expected to decline slightly in June, and the non - steel demand was weak [50]. - **View**: The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon increased, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [50]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The price of manganese silicon in the main production areas was stable [51]. - **Futures**: The manganese silicon futures price decreased slightly [51]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon was relatively high, and the profit was negative [51]. - **Supply**: The production of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure still existed [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking decreased slightly, and the overall demand was relatively stable [53][54]. - **View**: The supply pressure of manganese silicon still exists, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [55]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of domestic soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 4200 tons [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The US may have heavy rainfall, which may affect soybean production. Brazil's soybean production and export are expected to be high [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may ease the market sentiment, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious about chasing the rise [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly, with different trends in different regions [58][59]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding varied by scale, and the secondary fattening sales ratio decreased [59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig market supply - demand situation improved slightly, but the demand was weak due to hot weather. The market is expected to fluctuate [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in the northeast and north - central regions increased slightly, and the port price also increased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the northern four ports decreased [60][61]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by the supply - demand situation and the wheat price [61]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic sugar price is supported by high sales and low inventory, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, leading to a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure and the US dollar index remaining volatile [1][14][17][19]. - Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. In the future, the strength of China's domestic economic recovery will gradually play a more important role in pricing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of incremental policies [2][28]. - The market does not think the result of Sino - US trade negotiations is beyond expectations. Coupled with the news that the central bank is evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchase, treasury bond futures are relatively strong [3]. - Steel prices are oscillating. Although the current fundamental contradictions are not significant, the rainy season in East China has significantly suppressed the demand for building materials, and concerns about weakening external demand are difficult to reverse, so there is limited room for price rebound [4][40]. - After the stabilization of the futures market last week, the price of FMB ore has rebounded slightly recently. It remains to be seen whether the ore price can stabilize at $600 [5][65]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Tensions in the Middle East have led to market concerns and a sharp increase in oil prices [6][70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US budget deficit in May was $316 billion, a reduction compared to May 2024. The total customs duties in May reached a record $23 billion, almost four times that of May 2024. The budget expenditure in May was at a record high for that month [13]. - The US May CPI was lower than market expectations. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, mainly driven by geopolitical risks. The market's concerns about the Fed's monetary policy have weakened, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the June meeting. Gold has not broken out of the volatile range, and the market's long - short game has increased. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range with increased market fluctuations [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government's fiscal deficit in May further expanded. Although the deficit in May 2025 decreased by 9% compared to May 2024, the annual deficit increased by 14% year - on - year [16]. - The US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, indicating a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure. The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [17][19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated. The US has ordered the partial evacuation of embassy staff in Iraq and allowed military families to leave the Middle East [21]. - The US May CPI has been lower than expected for four consecutive months. The CPI growth rate was lower than expected, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. However, the slow progress of US - EU negotiations and the deterioration of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in US stocks. US stocks have not broken out of the volatile market, and it is not recommended to chase the high [22][24][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will implement zero - tariff policies on 100% of tariff items for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [26]. - Sino - US negotiations have reached a framework on the Geneva Consensus. Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [28][29]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [30]. - Sino - US negotiations have basically reached a framework on implementing the Geneva Consensus. The market has strengthened due to the logic of disappointing Sino - US trade negotiations and weak domestic economic data. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to buy bonds and accumulate long positions [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release its export sales report on Thursday. The market expects that the net increase in US soybean export sales for the current year as of June 5 will be between 1 - 5 million tons, and for the 25/26 year, it will be between 0 - 2 million tons [32]. - On June 11, the transaction volume of soybean meal was large. The import of Brazilian soybeans has decreased in cost, and domestic funds have shown a clear trend of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report [33][35][36]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 10 decreased by 17.24% month - on - month. The palm oil market adjusted yesterday, with palm oil leading the decline. It is believed that palm oil is in the bottom - building stage, and long positions can be considered [37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The steel price continues to oscillate, and there is limited room for price rebound. It is recommended to use the spot end for hedging on price rebounds [38][40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of early June, over 90% of Australia's new cotton has been harvested, and the total output is expected to be 5.4 million bales. As of June 7, the sowing progress of US new cotton is still behind. The external market is expected to remain weakly volatile at a low level in the short term. Domestically, the textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the market is expected to be cautiously optimistic [41][43][44]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On June 11, the price of steam coal in the northern ports remained stable. The coal price has temporarily stabilized, but there is a risk of a second bottom - hitting in summer. Attention should be paid to the growth rate of thermal power consumption and the substitution of new energy [45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Many automobile enterprises have promised to pay within 60 days. The overall market sentiment has eased, and the iron ore futures price has rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are seasonally weak, and the market is expected to remain volatile. An oscillating market mindset is recommended [46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In May, the sales volume and revenue of some pig - raising enterprises decreased year - on - year. In the short to medium term, the price may be at its most pessimistic from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. In the long term, the industry bottom may be approaching. It is recommended to wait and see [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production start - up rate has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. The supply - demand structure is improving. CS07 - C07 is expected to remain volatile at a low level, and CS09 - C09 is expected to recover, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continues to decline rapidly, and the spot price of corn has strengthened. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with an oscillating trend. It is recommended to hold the 07 long - positions with low costs and wait and see, and not to transfer the long - positions to the 09 contract [52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes. In June, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a significant impact on the fundamentals. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended, with the catalyst/risk being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. In June, some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, while most in Yunnan are still observing. The demand is not significantly improved. The futures price is expected to be volatile at a low level, and short - selling on price rebounds can be considered [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.55 per ton. The demand for lead has bottomed out and shows no improvement, while supply disruptions are the main factor. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - line low - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $33.05 per ton. The zinc price has oscillated upwards, mainly due to improved macro - sentiment. In June, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to peak, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will gradually emerge. Short - selling on price rebounds is recommended [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Philippines has removed the ban on nickel ore exports from its mining fiscal system bill. The LME has reduced inventory, and SHFE has increased warehouse receipts. The nickel price is expected to be volatile at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side of the futures market and consider selling put options on price dips [63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. The inventory accumulation pressure in June has been significantly relieved, and the market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking state. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [64][65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China is stable, and the US C3 inventory has increased. The domestic futures price is expected to be supported by the strengthening of oil prices [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US has authorized the voluntary evacuation of military families from the Middle East. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Oil prices have risen significantly due to Middle East tensions, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to increase [68][70][71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On June 11, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was partially adjusted downwards. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The decline of the 09 contract is limited due to good supply - demand and excessive discount [72][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market has mostly declined. The futures price is expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [75][76]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder in the domestic market is oscillating. The futures price is also expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [77]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - On June 11, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased. The styrene futures price is oscillating upwards. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential compression of intermediate - link profits after the return of downstream plants and the potential impact of new production capacity in the medium term [78][80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some local decreases. The industry is facing high supply pressure and low processing fees. It is recommended to consider taking long positions in bottle - chip processing fees on price dips [81][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On June 11, the soda ash market in Shahe was average, and the futures price was oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds in the medium term [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - On June 11, the price of float glass in Shahe was mostly stable. The futures price is slightly oscillating, and the fundamental driving force is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify. The spot price may continue to decline [85][86].