金瑞期货分析称，宏观层面，地缘冲突升级推升金属板块风险溢价。基本面方面，佤邦炸药审批进度加 快，供应有恢复预期，锡加工费上调3000元，冶炼环节利润修复预期升温。需求端受锡价高位压制，下 游企业补库意愿持续低迷，市场整体维持谨慎观望态势。展望后市，尽管锡矿供应存在环比修复预期， 但供应依旧偏紧，叠加地缘持续紧张与光伏抢出口支撑，沪锡价格预计延续高位震荡格局。 1月26日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报438850.00元/吨，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及462720.00元，下方探低424340.00元，涨幅达2.71% 附近。 新湖期货表示，当前市场情绪亢奋，物质实现影响的消息也可能被炒作。在当前亢奋的情绪下，锡价继 续强势，但也需警惕市场降温后的回调。操作上不建议追高。中期建议逢低偏多对待。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 广州期货指出，当前整体宏观氛围中性偏多，贵金属继续上冲引领有色金属，锡矿供应脆弱新兴需求刚 性预期赋予价格弹性，资金参与度高涨，价格波动率或继续放大，短期内锡价易 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with only lead showing a slight decline of 0.03%. Tin led the gains with a rise of 4.71%, followed by nickel at 3.99% and aluminum at 1.12%. Other metals had increases of less than 1% [1] - Lithium carbonate surged by 7.31%, reaching a peak of 182,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high since September 2023. Additionally, alumina and casting aluminum rose by 0.96% and 0.83%, respectively [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore increased by 1.21%, while coking coal and coke rose by 2.84% and 2.59%, respectively [1] - In the external market, most base metals saw increases, except for lead, which fell by 0.42%. Tin and nickel rose by 2.16% and 3.31%, respectively [1][2] - Precious metals also saw significant gains, with COMEX gold rising by 0.83% to a peak of 4,970 USD/oz, and COMEX silver increasing by 2.86% to a peak of 99.395 USD/oz, both hitting historical highs. Domestic gold and silver prices also reached new highs [1][2] Macro Environment - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan through a 1,250 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40% [4] - The US dollar index rose by 0.13% to 98.41, with the US GDP for Q3 growing at an annualized rate of 4.4%, surpassing the previous estimate of 4.3%. Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, lower than market expectations [5] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions indicate a 5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January, with a 95% probability of maintaining the current rate [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development and market potential of high-purity iron (4N and 5N grades), highlighting advancements in production technology and the growing demand across various industries, including renewable energy, electronics, and aerospace [3][16][19]. Product Definition and Statistical Scope - High-purity iron is categorized based on purity levels: industrial pure iron (2N-3N), high-purity iron (4N, 99.99%), and ultra-pure iron (5N-6N). 4N high-purity iron is characterized by a total impurity content of no more than 0.01% and is produced through advanced refining techniques [2][5]. - 4N high-purity iron is essential for applications in soft magnetic alloys, magnetic shielding materials, and high-end electronic components, balancing electromagnetic performance and chemical stability [2][3]. Market Analysis - The global market for 4N high-purity iron is projected to reach $27.82 million in 2024, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.40% from 2025 to 2031, potentially reaching $59.64 million by 2031 [7]. - China's market for 4N high-purity iron is anticipated to be $3.64 million in 2024, accounting for approximately 13.08% of the global market, and is expected to grow to $12.74 million by 2031, increasing its global share to 21.36% [11]. Production and Consumption Insights - North America and Japan are the primary production regions for 4N high-purity iron, holding over 75% of the market share in 2024 [14]. - The Asia-Pacific region is the largest consumer market, expected to account for 37.26% of the market share in 2024, followed by North America and Europe [15]. Industry Trends and Developments - The demand for ultra-pure iron is rising due to advancements in high-end manufacturing sectors such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and aerospace, with 4N and 5N grades becoming increasingly important [16]. - Technological advancements in purification and processing, including vacuum melting and electro-refining, are enabling stable production of 5N grade iron, with Chinese companies transitioning from experimental to large-scale manufacturing [16][19]. Competitive Landscape - Major global players in the 4N high-purity iron market include Allied Metals, TOHO Zinc, and Hebei Longfengshan Group, with the top three companies holding a market share of 73.47% in 2024 [11][20]. - The industry is characterized by high market concentration, and competition is expected to intensify in the coming years as domestic manufacturers enhance their capabilities [11][16]. Future Outlook - The ultra-pure iron industry is expected to evolve towards higher purity levels and stricter impurity control, driven by emerging fields such as semiconductor manufacturing and quantum computing [18]. - Chinese enterprises are anticipated to shift from a "follower" to a "peer" position in the 5N ultra-pure iron market, supported by policy initiatives and technological advancements [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures may face pressure, stock index futures' volatility center may gradually rise, and precious metals' market volatility may increase. Different commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operation**: On January 22, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy Expectation**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures may face certain pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 0.19%, - 0.51%, 0.53%, and 0.91% respectively [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,087.58 with a decrease of 0.43%, and the silver main contract closed at 23,339 with an increase of 0.90% [10]. - **Analysis**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - **Analysis**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [14]. - **Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened. Technically, it shows signs of stabilizing after a decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [16]. - **Analysis**: The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. However, the demand for coke has decreased due to the decline in iron - making production. Technically, it may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon rose by 0.48% and 0.94% respectively. The spot prices also changed [19]. - **Analysis**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues. The cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, closing above the 5 - day moving average [20]. - **Analysis**: Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US is expanding Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. The market is concerned about the over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward, closing above the moving average group [23]. - **Analysis**: The import of fuel oil in Asia from the West has increased, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in good condition. The price has risen due to increased downstream demand after the holidays and expected pre - Spring Festival demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market showed a rising trend, and the Yuyao LLDPE market adjusted prices [26]. - **Analysis**: The开工 rate has declined due to low - temperature and labor shortages, but the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing fields is growing steadily. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but PDH is still in deep losses. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose by 4.50%, and the Shandong mainstream price increased [28]. - **Analysis**: The rise in the synthetic rubber market is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but weak downstream demand limits the increase. It is expected to be mainly in a strong - oscillation pattern [28][29][30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main natural rubber contracts and 20 - grade rubber contracts rose, and the Shanghai spot price increased [31]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, and the demand from downstream tire enterprises has improved. However, the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31][32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose by 2.21%, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, it is the traditional off - season for PVC, but the market may oscillate strongly under policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty of demand [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main urea contract rose by 1.30%, and the Shandong Linyi price increased [35]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, urea prices will maintain a strong - oscillation pattern, driven by export demand and cost support. The daily production is expected to remain high, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is increasing, while the demand from the board industry is decreasing [35][36]. p - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose by 2.13%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable [37]. - **Analysis**: The PX operating rate has declined, and the cost of crude oil may provide support. In the short term, it may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the range and pay attention to external crude oil fluctuations and macro - policy changes [37][38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.75% [39]. - **Analysis**: The PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has not changed much recently, and the demand has decreased seasonally. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory build - up in January and February. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose by 4.51% [40]. - **Analysis**: The supply has decreased slightly due to increased domestic and foreign device maintenance, but the port inventory is under pressure, and the pre - arrival volume has increased significantly. It is expected to have pressure on the price in January and February. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose by 2.31% [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and the sales have improved. The terminal factories are mainly consuming raw - material inventories. The low inventory may provide support at the bottom. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic and oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and pre - holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [42]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 3.39%, and the processing fee has recovered [43]. - **Analysis**: The production load of bottle - grade PET has slightly decreased, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still the cost end. It is expected to follow the cost - end oscillation. Investors should participate carefully, control risks, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [43][44]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 soda ash contract closed at 1185 yuan/ton, rising 1.46% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose, and the price is stable. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream demand is average. It shows obvious off - season characteristics. It is recommended to be cautious as the market lacks substantial support in the short term [45][46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 glass contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, rising 0.67% [47]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of glass remains loose. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory has increased, and the sales of enterprises have slowed down. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48][49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 caustic soda contract closed at 1948 yuan/ton, falling 0.51% [50]. - **Analysis**: Caustic soda shows obvious winter seasonal characteristics, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The market is in a weak state, and the outlook is not optimistic [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 pulp contract closed at 5380 yuan/ton, rising 0.34% [51]. - **Analysis**: The inventory of pulp has continued to accumulate, and the spot trading is light. The prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have declined. The downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55% to 168,780 yuan/ton [52]. - **Analysis**: The macro - liquidity has increased, and the supply of lithium carbonate is still high, while the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support at the bottom. However, the short - term volatility may increase [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 100,270 yuan/ton, falling 0.43% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inflation in the US is still high, the international situation is tense, and the supply of copper is extremely tight. However, the high price has suppressed the actual demand, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is supported in the long term but restricted in the short term. The current risk is relatively high [53][54]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 24,070 yuan/ton, rising 0.21%, and the main alumina contract closed at 2729 yuan/ton, rising 1.15% [55]. - **Analysis**: The supply of bauxite is abundant, the production of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the ceiling. The demand is suppressed in the short term, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short alumina on rallies before the Spring Festival. The long - term outlook for aluminum prices is still optimistic, but there may be a short - term correction [55][56]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,530 yuan/ton, rising 0.74% [58]. - **Analysis**: The supply of zinc raw materials is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, and the consumption will weaken seasonally. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price may decline under pressure [58][59]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [60]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead is restricted by the shortage of raw materials, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead provides support, while the off - season demand restricts the upward space. It is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai tin contract rose by 1.7% to 417,250 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production recovery. The demand shows certain resilience supported by emerging fields. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to risk control [62]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose by 0.28% to 142,730 yuan/ton [63]. - **Analysis**: The macro - situation and Indonesian policies have affected the nickel market. The cost of nickel production is expected to rise, but the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The market is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose by 1.50% to 2768 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose by 0.55% to 8084 yuan/ton. The spot prices also changed [64]. - **Analysis**: The import of soybeans has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in loss, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [64][65]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has reached a two - month high. The export of palm oil products in Malaysia has increased, and the production has decreased [66]. - **Analysis**: The production of palm oil may decline, the demand is strong, and the inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [66][67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has little change, and the import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China has changed [69]. - **Analysis**: China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. Investors can consider holding positions to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69][70]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external - market cotton fluctuated [71]. - **Analysis**: The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory build

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-23 一、 宏观数据速览 二、商品投资参考 综合 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show various trends. Some sectors are expected to be volatile, while others may have specific upward or downward trends based on their unique fundamentals [2][4][5] - In the commodities market, factors such as raw material supply, inventory levels, and downstream demand play crucial roles in determining price movements. For example, in the metals market, the supply of raw materials like nickel and copper, and the demand from industries such as stainless - steel production and electronics, affect prices [20][23][40] - In the financial market, stock index futures and bond futures are affected by domestic and international news, economic data, and policy orientations. For instance, A - share market sentiment is influenced by domestic economic development and overseas trade policies [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by approaching delivery, the price rose at the end of the session. The cost is supported by raw material news, but supply is abundant and demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 15,000 [2][46] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the spot price is under pressure. The industry operating rate has slightly increased, with high inventory and weak demand [3][111] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coal in Shanxi has mostly risen, while Mongolian coal has fallen from its high. The market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,000 - 1,200 [4][64] - **Palm Oil**: It leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, with the potential to break through the 9,000 mark. The production in Malaysia has decreased seasonally, and exports have increased [5][87] - **Gold**: Driven by geopolitical conflicts, the safe - haven sentiment boosts the gold price. It is recommended to buy on dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options [6][17] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had a weak rebound with reduced trading volume. The semiconductor sector was hot. It is expected to enter a volatile trend, and investors are advised to control risks and reduce long positions [7][8][9] - **Bond Futures**: The money market is relatively loose, and long - term bond futures have strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and not to chase high prices [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals were affected by Trump's tariff suspension. Gold closed higher, while silver, platinum, and palladium had different trends. In the future, gold is expected to be strongly volatile, silver may be volatile at a high level, and platinum and palladium will follow gold and be volatile with a narrowing range [14][17][18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated and adjusted, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market speculation sentiment has eased, and the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing [19][23] - **Alumina**: The spot market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate widely around the cash cost line, with the reference range of 2,600 - 2,900 [24][26] - **Aluminum**: The market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The macro and policy expectations are strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 [27][29] - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the demand is suppressed. It is expected to be volatile, and investors can hold long positions at low prices in the long - term [32][36] - **Tin**: The price fluctuated widely. The supply has increased, and the demand from the welding industry is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and hold a long - term low - buying attitude [36][40] - **Nickel**: The impact of news has been digested, and the price oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 138,000 - 148,000 [40][43] - **Stainless Steel**: Similar to the daily selection, it is affected by delivery and cost - demand game, and is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [43][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - side disturbance expectation has risen again, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - term [47][50] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. It is expected to be volatile, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [54][56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3,050 - 3,250 and 3,200 - 3,350 respectively [57][59] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure, and investors can short at around 800 [60][61] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to the daily selection, the spot is strong before the Spring Festival, but the market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile [62][64] - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises have started to raise prices, but the market has over - anticipated. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [65][67] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,300 - 5,800 [68][69] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore supports the cost, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [70][72] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is volatile, and the bottom of soybean meal is strongly supported. The domestic supply is loose, but the downside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile [73][75] - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter pressure has increased, and it is difficult for the white - strip pork price to rise. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [76][77] - **Corn**: There are both support and pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy release [78][79] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is oscillating, and the domestic sugar market is in the late stage of stockpiling. The sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile at a low level [80] - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton is stable, and the domestic cotton price is adjusting. It is expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to the support at around 14,400 - 14,500 [82][83] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable, and the market is moving normally. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [85] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil leads the rise, with the potential to break through 9,000. Soybean oil may have a callback, and rapeseed oil is expected to be narrowly volatile [86][88] - **Jujubes**: The consumption drive is weak, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to run at a low level [89][90] - **Apples**: Supported by low inventory, the price has stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation after the Spring Festival [91][92] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The short - term supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term and may be tight in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips [93] - **PTA**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, and the driving force before the Spring Festival is limited. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate within the range of 4,900 - 5,300 [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. The processing fee can be shorted at a high level [97] - **Bottle - grade PET**: Multiple devices are under maintenance, and the factory is reducing inventory. The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short the 5 - 9 spread and sell call options [100][101] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the high inventory restricts the driving force. It is recommended to short the BZ03 contract and narrow the EB - BZ spread [102][103] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the high valuation limits the rebound space. It is recommended to short the EB03 contract and narrow the processing fee [104][106] - **LLDPE**: The upstream has reduced the price to sell, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [107] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the PDH profit expansion position [107][108] - **Methanol**: The basis has strengthened, and the price is narrowly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar to the daily selection, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is under pressure [109][111] - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, but the downside space is limited [112][113] - **Urea**: The inventory has fallen below one million tons, and the demand has recovered. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and the main contract reference range is 1,740 - 1,790 [114][115] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and short positions can be held [116][119] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short positions can be held [116][120] - **Natural Rubber**: Thailand is entering the production - reduction period, and the raw material price has rebounded. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is strong, and the BR is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion opportunity between BR2603 and NR2603 [124][125][126]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on January 21, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index rising by 3.53%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.54% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.60 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 177.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among individual stocks, 2,962 stocks rose while 2,046 stocks fell [1] Sector Performance - Semiconductor sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the electric grid equipment and brewing industries experienced significant net outflows [1] - Precious metals and silver led the gains among themes, while sectors like electric power IoT and space computing faced declines [1] Hot Stocks - The top ten popular stocks included Tongfu Microelectronics, Huatian Technology, China Great Wall, Lioo Co., Silver Lead, Changdian Technology, Fenglong Co., Dagang Co., Hunan Silver, and TBEA [2] - Tongfu Microelectronics and Huatian Technology both achieved a heat value of 9.5, benefiting from national fund holdings and Huawei-related concepts, with both stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - China Great Wall's stock price increased due to significant improvement in fundamentals and alignment with current market trends [3] Company Insights - Tongfu Microelectronics' stock price surged due to improved industry conditions and better-than-expected company performance, with a forecasted net profit growth of over 60% year-on-year [3] - Huatian Technology's stock performance is driven by its competitive advantage in advanced packaging technology and ongoing acquisition efforts [3] - China Great Wall's stock strength is attributed to a significant reduction in losses and its role as a core player in the Xinchuang industry [3] - Lioo Co. gained attention due to its involvement in AI applications and liquid cooling pumps, although it faced volatility post-resumption of trading [3] - Silver Lead's stock performance is closely tied to international silver prices, which have reached historical highs, benefiting from industrial demand and safe-haven buying [3] - Changdian Technology is experiencing growth due to the overall recovery of the packaging and testing industry and advancements in technology [3] Additional Company Developments - Fenglong Co.'s stock price fluctuations are linked to a change in control, with a proposed acquisition by UBTECH, which is expected to create business synergies [4] - Dagang Co. and Hunan Silver are benefiting from their respective positions in the semiconductor industry and the rising silver prices [4]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 3,100 tons to reach 159,400 tons, reflecting a change of +1.98% [1] - Aluminum inventory rose by 24,175 tons to 507,175 tons, showing a growth of +5.01% [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 450 tons to 111,850 tons, marking a decline of -0.40% [1] - Lead inventory fell by 2,925 tons to 222,650 tons, indicating a decrease of -1.30% [1] - Tin inventory increased by 250 tons to 7,210 tons, representing a rise of +3.59% [1] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory increased by 525 tons to 82,150 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 30.37% [4] - In Rotterdam, aluminum inventory decreased by 125 tons to 10,400 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 6.01% [5] - In Singapore, zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 74,075 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 5.70% [9] - Tin inventory in the port of Klang increased by 250 tons to 2,950 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 4.75% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of international futures, important domestic and foreign macro - economic information, financial market conditions including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, and upcoming events and data announcements. It reflects the complex and dynamic nature of the global financial and economic situation, with various factors such as policy changes, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships influencing different markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.98% at $4769.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.19% at $94.46 per ounce [4]. - The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.15% to $59.52 per barrel, while the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.06% to $63.9 per barrel. Most London base metals declined, except for tin which rose [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for eight consecutive months [8]. - China's National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the domestic demand expansion strategy from 2026 - 2030 [8]. - In 2026, China's Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy [8]. - US Commerce Secretary said high interest rates are a problem and a 100 - basis - point rate cut could boost economic growth to 6% or higher [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On January 20, 24:00, domestic refined oil prices were raised for the first time in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 85 yuan per ton [11]. - Qinghai Province reduced the potassium chloride production capacity of Golmud Zangge Potassium Fertilizer Co., Ltd. from 2 million tons to 1.2 million tons [11]. - China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber in December 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [12]. Metal Futures - In December, China's lithium carbonate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to December increased slightly [14]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges of multiple metal futures contracts [14][15]. - Shanghai released a plan to enhance the level of non - ferrous metal commodities, including opening up more futures and options varieties and exploring cross - border delivery mechanisms [15]. - Poland's central bank plans to purchase up to 150 tons of gold to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons [16]. - Rio Tinto's aluminum and copper production in 2025 exceeded the guidance range [16]. Black - Series Futures - BHP's Pilbara iron ore production and sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and its 2026 fiscal year production guidance remained unchanged [18]. - Some areas in Henan Province launched a heavy - pollution weather orange alert [18]. - China's crude steel production decreased in December 2025 and for the whole year of 2025 [18]. - The first batch of 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore from Guinea's Simandou project arrived in China, and the project is expected to export 18 million tons in 2026 [19][20]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of January 17, the average operating rate of domestic oil mills decreased, and the total soybean crushing volume decreased [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased, according to different survey institutions [23][24]. - Brazil's expected exports of soybeans, corn, and other agricultural products in January increased [24]. - The US soybean export inspection volume decreased in the week ending January 15 [24]. Financial Market Finance - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The trading volume increased [27]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline. Southbound funds had net purchases [27]. - More than 500 A - share companies disclosed their 2025 performance pre - announcements, with some sectors performing well and others under pressure [27]. - In 2025, the quantitative index - enhancement strategy in the A - share market was outstanding, and the average return of related products was 45.08% [28]. - Goldman Sachs expects China's stock market growth in 2026 to be driven by corporate earnings, with a significant acceleration in profit growth [28]. Industry - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China aims to improve water - saving efficiency and expand the water - saving industry [30]. - China adjusted the rules of lottery games, with a new cap on the total first - prize payout [30]. - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the first time in 2026 [30]. - The National Medical Insurance Administration issued a guide for price setting of medical innovation achievements [30]. - Beijing announced its 2026 construction land supply plan [31]. - Guangzhou is promoting housing renovation legislation and has a large - scale urban village renovation investment plan [31]. - The global AI server shipments are expected to grow by more than 28% in 2026 [31]. - The Chinese U23 men's football team advanced to the final of the Asian Cup [32]. Overseas - US President Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current ones are restricted [33]. - The US Treasury Secretary said Trump is close to nominating the next Fed Chairman [33]. - The European Parliament froze the approval process of a trade agreement with the US [33]. - Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on French wine and champagne [34]. - Canada simulated a US military invasion [34]. - South Korea will postpone a large - scale US investment plan due to currency pressure [36]. International Stock Markets - US major stock indexes fell, with market risk - aversion rising due to Trump's remarks on tariffs and Greenland [37]. - European major stock indexes closed lower, affected by US policy uncertainty, weak economic data, and geopolitical risks [37]. - Most Asian - Pacific stock indexes declined, with different reasons for each market [38]. - FTSE Russell is considering lowering the free - float ratio requirement for foreign - registered companies in London [38]. - South Korea's stock exchange CEO expects the Korean stock market to continue rising [38]. - South Korea's government will provide tax incentives for domestic reinvestment of overseas stock sale proceeds [40]. - Netflix changed the payment terms for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's business to all - cash [40]. - AstraZeneca will transfer its listing from NASDAQ to the New York Stock Exchange [41]. Commodities - The domestic commodity futures market had mixed results, with lithium carbonate hitting the daily limit and some metals showing significant price movements [42]. - Shanghai released measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities [42]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Trading Center adjusted margin ratios and price limits of metal futures [42]. - International precious metal prices rose, driven by risk - aversion and policy expectations [42]. - Oil prices had mixed performance, with supply expectations affecting the market [44]. - Most London base metals declined, except for tin [44]. - The LME copper spot price soared, indicating potential high demand for physical delivery [44]. - Poland's central bank plans to buy gold [45]. Bonds - China's bond market showed positive signs, with yields of some bonds falling [45]. - US bond yields rose across the board [45]. - Japan's finance minister tried to calm the bond market [47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [48]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [48]. Upcoming Data and Events - There are multiple important economic data announcements from the UK and the US at different times on January 21 [50]. - There are various events including central bank operations, press conferences, and international forums on January 21 and the following days [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, attention should be paid to market rhythm. For stock index futures, the strategy is to buy on dips. For Treasury bonds, the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter. For precious metals, there are medium - term bullish factors. For most commodities, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there are short - term fluctuations and different supply - demand situations for each variety [4][7][9]. Summary by Categories 1. Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. The Ministry of Finance provides fiscal subsidies for technology - innovation loans, and the central bank offers re - loans. Spot silver has reached $95 per ounce, up 33% this year, and spot gold is up nearly 10%. Some违规 accounts on Xueqiu have been permanently banned [2]. - **Basis Point Ratios**: The basis point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: In the long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.51%, 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.04% respectively. The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy in 2026, and the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy is extended to the end of 2026. The central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum needs to be observed, and domestic demand depends on residents' income and policy support. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates, and the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.98%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported. Poland plans to buy 150 tons of gold, and the US - EU relationship is tense, which is beneficial to gold [8]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, the Fed may increase the easing amplitude, and it is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased, and copper prices fell. LME copper closed at $12,796 per ton, down 1.47%, and Shanghai copper closed at 99,930 yuan per ton [11]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals is weakening, and the market sentiment is cooling. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market risk preference weakened, and aluminum prices fell. LME aluminum closed at $3,118 per ton, down 1.48%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,775 yuan per ton [13]. - **Strategy**: Tensions between the US and Europe have weakened market sentiment, but high US aluminum premiums and low global LME aluminum inventory limit the downside of aluminum prices. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 24,417 yuan per ton. LME zinc rose to $3,227 per ton. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of zinc ore and the import TC of zinc concentrate decreased slightly, and the zinc price has room to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to follow the sector and may fluctuate [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index rose 0.25% to 17,228 yuan per ton. LME lead rose to $2,058 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is improving marginally. The lead price may fluctuate with the sector [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.67% to 141,360 yuan per ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the production of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, the inventory has not reflected it. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.44% to 399,000 yuan per ton. The supply is limited by raw materials and high prices, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased [22]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, but the inventory increase may put pressure on the price. The tin price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose 5.52%. The import of carbonate lithium in December increased by 9% month - on - month and decreased by 14% year - on - year [23]. - **Strategy**: There are uncertainties in the lithium mine, and the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 20, the alumina index fell 2.21% to 2,666 yuan per ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import loss was reported. The futures inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Strategy**: The price of ore is expected to decline, and the alumina market has problems such as over - capacity and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract rose 0.28% to 14,345 yuan per ton. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the price fluctuating at a high level [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main contract AD2603 fell 0.55% to 22,765 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed, but the demand is general. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [30]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3,111 yuan per ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.69% to 3,276 yuan per ton. The inventory and spot price changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in a bottom - range shock. The safety inspection after the Baotou steel explosion may support the price of hot - rolled coils. The actual demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) fell 0.57% to 789.50 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [34]. - **Strategy**: The overseas iron ore shipment is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of steel mills and iron - water production [35][36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 20, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) fell 4.30% to 1,124 yuan per ton, and the coke main contract (J2605) fell 2.76% to 1,673.5 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [37]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but there are risks of short - term market sentiment shocks [39][40][41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the glass main contract fell 1.31% to 1,056 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The glass market sentiment is weakening. The supply is low, and the demand is light. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [43]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the soda ash main contract fell 1.26% to 1,177 yuan per ton. The inventory increased slightly, and the positions of long and short changed [44]. - **Strategy**: Affected by the glass market, the soda ash market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.83% to 5,760 yuan per ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) rose 0.07% to 5,552 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [45]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, while that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future market drivers may come from the overall market sentiment and cost factors [47][48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) fell 1.13% to 8,745 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weakening. The price may fluctuate due to news [50]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) rose 0.39% to 50,700 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [52]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure of polysilicon is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate increased, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [55][56]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price is expected to continue to fall after consolidation. It is recommended to short on the break of 16,000 for RU2605 and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures fell 1.27% to 437 yuan per barrel. The inventories of related refined products and crude oil increased [59]. - **Strategy**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to rise [60]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of methanol changed, and the main futures contract changed [61]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and there is a chance of improvement in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips [62]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of urea changed, and the main futures contract changed [63][64]. - **Strategy**: The import window of urea has opened, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [65]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene was stable, the spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell. The supply - demand and profit indicators changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is low, and there is room for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [67]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose to 4,807 yuan. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term electricity price and export incentives may support the price, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [69]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell to 3,661 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rebound and compress the valuation in the medium term [71]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose to 5,144 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [73]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose to 7,232 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. There is a chance to go long on dips following the crude oil price after the Spring Festival [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PE fell to 6,640 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may bottom out, and the PE valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may be supported [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PP fell to 6,461 yuan. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [79][80]. 5. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price generally fell, and the market demand was weak [82]. - **Strategy**: Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the short - term price may be strong. However, the medium - term supply pressure is large, and the price may be under pressure [83]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, and the supply and demand were normal [84]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has increased during the pre - holiday stocking period, and the near - month contract may fluctuate strongly. The long - term outlook is positive, but there are uncertainties [85]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import, supply, and demand data of soybeans and rapeseed are reported [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The USDA report is slightly negative, and China's purchase of US soybeans and potential reduction of Canadian rapeseed import tariffs are negative for domestic meal prices. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly [88]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price rebounded. The domestic three - major oil inventories decreased, and the supply - demand data of palm oil and other oils are reported [89][90]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamental situation of oils and fats is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar decreased, and the import and production data are reported [92][93]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar - making season ends. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the import, supply, and demand data are reported [95][96]. - **Strategy**: In the medium -