1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to benefit from the improvement in infrastructure and real estate demand, with a long-term view of continuous optimization in supply structure. Recommended companies include Shengfeng Cement, Tapai Group, Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Tibet Tianlu [20][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.92% [2][15] - The cement price has recently hit a low, with the average price in East China down by 17 CNY/ton year-on-year, indicating potential for price rebound due to the implementation of price coordination mechanisms [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 3.63%. Notable stock performances include Yamaton (+34.9%), Zhongcai Technology (+20.7%), and Kaisheng New Energy (+19.6%) [12][14] Recent Tracking of Key Sub-sectors - Cement: The national cement market price fell by 1.3% week-on-week, with average shipment rates around 42% due to weak demand [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market saw a general decline in new orders, with prices for 2.0mm coated panels down by 2.27% [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn remains stable, with prices holding steady at around 3669 CNY/ton [19] Long-term Value of Traditional Building Materials - The report emphasizes that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials like carbon fiber are expected to see sustained growth due to high downstream demand and domestic substitution opportunities [20][21]

钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-07-07 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 4 元/吨（-0.13%）。当日注册仓单 29168 吨, 环比增加 2095 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.85 万手，环比增加 1338 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3201 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.21%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 1491 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.08 万手，环比减少 1 ...

Group 1: Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" initiative aims to address chaotic low-price competition among enterprises, guiding improvements in product quality and enhancing national governance expectations[5] - The initiative emphasizes quality enhancement, technological investment, and protection of workers and small enterprises, focusing on "increasing quantity and improving quality" rather than merely price concerns[5] - Recent high-level discussions and meetings have repeatedly highlighted the importance of breaking "involution-style" competition to achieve high-quality development, with various industries responding positively[5] Group 2: Industry Responses - Industries under profit pressure, such as traditional sectors like cement and steel, are beginning to respond to the "anti-involution" measures, with some companies agreeing to production cuts[5] - The government is expected to implement further nationwide optimizations in procurement and bidding systems, enhancing the allocation of public resources[5] - Local government investment attraction models are anticipated to evolve, moving away from unsustainable fiscal subsidies towards regions with strong industrial chains and research infrastructure[5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The "anti-involution" approach is not about suppressing competition but rather facilitating a transformation in corporate governance and investment attraction practices, leading to long-term improvements in governance expectations[5] - The current policy shift is expected to prioritize quality and technological advancements, contrasting with previous supply-side reforms that focused on capacity reduction and deleveraging[5] - The establishment of a high-quality development assessment system will likely reduce the emphasis on GDP growth metrics while enhancing the focus on new and old kinetic energy conversion[5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **coal industry** in China, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, and the impact of government policies on coal and energy production [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coal Consumption and Demand Forecast**: - Daily coal consumption is expected to exceed **2.3 million tons** this year, with peak demand in July and August likely to surpass expectations due to rising temperatures [1][3]. 2. **Coal Price Trends**: - Coal prices have declined to **640-650 CNY/ton**, influenced by increased imports and domestic supply from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, alongside low electricity demand during a warm winter [1][4][7]. - The price is projected to rebound to **670-680 CNY/ton** as temperatures rise, with a stable bottom expected between **610-650 CNY/ton** [1][8]. 3. **Future of Thermal Power and New Energy Installations**: - New energy installations are expected to peak in **2024** at approximately **350 GW**, but policy changes and subsidy withdrawals may suppress future growth [5]. - The most significant pressure on thermal power is anticipated in **2025**, with a gradual easing of pressure expected by **2026** and potential growth in **2027** [5]. 4. **Impact of Leadership Changes in Xinjiang**: - Recent leadership changes in Xinjiang may affect coal production capacity expansion, potentially leading to a reduction in new coal capacity in the medium to long term [6]. 5. **Supply and Import Dynamics**: - Domestic coal supply is stabilizing but slightly declining, with imports expected to total **450-460 million tons** for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of **8-9 million tons** [7]. 6. **Market Supply-Demand Situation**: - The coal market is characterized by stable supply and rising demand, with a price bottom forming in early **2025** [8]. 7. **Government Policies on Market Competition**: - The Central Financial Committee's recent discussions emphasize the need to combat low-price competition and promote orderly market conditions, marking a shift towards market-driven adjustments rather than strict regulatory measures [2][9]. 8. **Lessons from the Cement Industry**: - The cement industry has successfully implemented collaborative production strategies to enhance profitability, which could serve as a model for other cyclical industries facing similar challenges [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a **prisoner's dilemma** scenario, where companies continue production despite losses to maintain market share, complicating efforts to reduce supply and stabilize prices [12][13][14]. - The unique characteristics of the cement industry, such as lower transportation costs and easier production adjustments, contrast sharply with the complexities faced by the coal and other heavy industries [15]. - The steel market is currently viewed as the most favorable among commodity sectors, while the coking coal market faces significant challenges, with over **90%** of companies reporting losses in the second quarter [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on leading companies in the coal sector, such as **Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry**, **China Shenhua Energy**, **China Coal Energy**, and **Jin控煤业**, as they align with current market trends and investment logic [18].

Macro Analysis - The recovery in U.S. non-farm employment in June 2025 shows concerns as government jobs contributed nearly half of the new jobs, raising doubts about sustainability [1] - Private sector employment weakened, with service sector job additions dropping from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressure from tariffs [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains significant [1] Tax Policy Impact - The successful implementation of the tax reduction bill may partially offset economic pressures from tariffs, but its limited impact suggests it will not provide strong stimulus [2] - The tax bill is expected to increase the U.S. government deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches in U.S. Treasury bonds [2] Trade Agreements - The U.S. is focusing on negotiating 10 trade agreements with Asian countries, with preliminary agreements reached with Vietnam and potential agreements with India, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] - The deadline for negotiations has been extended to September 1, indicating a flexible approach from the U.S. government [3] REITs Market - As of June 30, 2025, the number of public REITs in China reached 68, with a total issuance scale of 177.06 billion yuan [4] - The secondary market for public REITs experienced a price correction but still achieved a positive return of 1.95% for the month [4] Credit Bonds - The total outstanding credit bonds in China reached 29.96 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a monthly issuance of 1,316.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 62.65% increase month-on-month [5] - Credit spreads for various levels of local government bonds widened slightly compared to the previous month [5] Automotive Industry - In Q2 2025, Tesla's global delivery volume showed a recovery, while domestic competitors like Li Auto and NIO stabilized [12] - The Xiaomi YU7 has seen a surge in orders, prompting new energy vehicle companies to enhance their purchasing incentives [12] Chemical Industry - MXD6, a special nylon, exhibits high gas barrier properties and rigidity, with significant application potential in food packaging and automotive sectors [13] - The increasing production capacity of domestic manufacturers is expected to enhance the cost-effectiveness of MXD6 composite materials, expanding its market applications [13] Company Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of YUEJIANG (2432.HK), a leading global collaborative robot manufacturer, emphasizing its strong market position and technological advantages [14] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 500 million, 670 million, and 890 million yuan from 2024 to 2027, respectively, with an "accumulate" rating assigned [14]

Group 1: Report Core View - Glass futures experienced a pullback after a rally, presenting a good opportunity to go long [3] - The expectation of production cuts is the key driver for the price increase of glass futures. Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively cut production by 30% starting from July, and the supply in July is expected to drop to around 45GW. Previously, the glass industry had a serious oversupply issue, with prices dropping by over 70% and the industry in a loss - making state. Production cuts will alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand and accelerate capacity clearance, which is beneficial for price recovery. Additionally, Sanxia New Material announced a one - year cold repair of its float glass production line, and these production cut actions on the supply side support the price [4] - Policy factors also contribute to the rise in glass futures prices. The Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises, which will increase costs as enterprises improve product quality and reduce supply as backward production capacity exits [4] - From the market sentiment and technical aspects, glass futures may have been oversold previously and have a technical rebound demand. The market's expectation of production cut news and policies has strengthened the bullish sentiment, and capital inflows have pushed up the price. Moreover, the firm price of soda ash has caused some glass enterprises to incur losses, providing strong support for the glass price near the cost line [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The implementation of the new program trading regulations is imminent. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upwards next Monday [8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the overall trend remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before it reaches a new high, although the pace is slow. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level and is likely to resume its upward trend [12][13] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, most of the prices have risen and then fallen today, and a wide - range oscillation approach should be adopted [16][17] Glass - The supply side of glass has not yet experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories are still at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, so the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Recently, the significant production cut of photovoltaic glass has affected market sentiment. Technically, the price has maintained a range - bound consolidation today, and the short - term sentiment has a greater impact. An oscillating and bullish approach should be adopted [20][21] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, the short - term trend of soybean oil may be oscillating or bullish. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a period of seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, a light - position short - term short - selling strategy can be considered [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. In the short - term, spot transactions are stable, and policy proposals and peak - season expectations drive a rebound. However, factors such as Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit the upside. The long - term bullish view is supported by policy expectations, low prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish view is based on the lack of substantial improvement in the real - estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. - Soda Ash: The trend is sideways with a downward bias. High glass inventory and large losses limit the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term valuation is low and there are some positive expectations, the market will face greater delivery pressure. The core factors are high production and high inventory, and it is difficult to expect a long - term shortage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 3.1.1 Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,510 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,600 tons/day [14]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons/day, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [17]. - The current in - production capacity is about 157,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day, and the recent low was 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day. The production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited [19][21]. 3.1.2 Price and Profit - This week, transactions were stable, with most prices unchanged and some in Shahe rising by 10 yuan/ton. Shahe's price is around 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, Hubei's is around 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and East China's is around 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [27][31]. - Futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The monthly spread was weak due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [33][35]. - Profits: Petroleum coke profit is around - 101 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal fuel profits are around - 199 - 82 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - fired devices is 86 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 188 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 85 yuan/ton [38][41]. 3.1.3 Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions were relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly [44]. - Regional arbitrage: The price in East China decreased, and the regional price difference shrank [45]. 3.1.4 Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Prices declined, recent orders decreased, shipments were average, and inventory increased. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, down 2.27% month - on - month; the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, down 2.63% month - on - month [53][55]. - Capacity and inventory: As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity is about 94,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 34.62 days, up 6.80% month - on - month [57][58][62]. 3.2 Soda Ash 3.2.1 Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash开工 changed little, and the potential maintenance volume is currently small. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32% (last week was 82.2%). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 396,000 tons. With high production and high inventory, either manufacturers increase production - reduction efforts or the real - estate industry recovers to drive the demand for glass and soda ash. Currently, glass has great pressure and cannot increase the demand for soda ash [66][68]. - Inventory is about 1.81 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.005 million tons of heavy soda ash [69][70]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The prices in Shahe and Hubei are nominally around 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and prices changed little this week [76][80]. - Due to high production and high inventory, the near - month pressure is large. The basis is slightly strong, and the monthly spread is under pressure. The near - month pressure comes from delivery and trade pressure, and the fundamental factor is the weak glass market and high soda ash production [82][85]. - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 12.5 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 62 yuan/ton [88]. - There are several planned and under - construction projects in the soda ash industry, such as the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy with an expansion capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, planned to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [84].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly highlighting the recovery potential in the consumption building materials sector and the cement industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The building materials industry has seen a resurgence in attention since July 1, driven by expectations of supply-side improvements and demand upgrades, particularly in the cement and glass sectors [2][4]. - The cement industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at limiting overproduction, while the glass industry is experiencing changes due to reductions in production capacity and demand fluctuations [2][9]. - The waterproofing sector has seen unprecedented price increases among leading companies, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][5]. - AI demand is reshaping market expectations, particularly in the low dielectric cloth segment, which is expected to see continued product premium during the upgrade process [3][26]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The logic of improving market dynamics is beginning to materialize, with price communication among companies becoming more favorable [5]. - The waterproofing industry has seen a significant price increase among leading firms, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][6]. - The report anticipates that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth in 2025, driven by cost reductions and stabilized pricing [5]. Cement - The cement industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" with policies aimed at limiting overproduction, which is expected to stabilize prices [9][11]. - Demand remains weak, with a notable decline in production and sales, but the industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect [11][12]. - The report likens the supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry to a "tortoise and hare" race, where supply adjustments may lead to improved profitability despite weak demand [12][14]. Glass - The float glass market is currently facing pressure with prices remaining low and demand weak, leading to cash flow challenges for many companies [17][24]. - The report highlights that the photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss zone, prompting accelerated cold repairs among manufacturers [24][25]. - The automotive glass segment is expected to maintain stable profitability due to product structure improvements and cost optimization [21][22]. Fiberglass - The demand for low dielectric cloth is expected to increase due to the AI industry's growth, with companies positioned well for product upgrades [26][27]. - The report notes that mainstream electronic cloth products are performing steadily, with potential price increases anticipated in the future [27][28]. Carbon Fiber - The wind power sector is seeing a recovery in demand, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in Q2 [32].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction materials industry has seen a significant increase in attention since July 1, driven by unexpected changes on the supply side and a focus on demand upgrades for the end of 2024 [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy expectation, with a focus on limiting overproduction and improving regulatory oversight [2][10] - The demand side is shifting, with AI-related demand expected to accelerate, positively impacting various segments of the industry [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a rare price increase in the waterproofing industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][5] - Companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong are showing improved profitability through cost reduction and price increases, validating earlier industry reports [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth, with expectations of reduced price competition and improved cost management [4][5] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a focus on limiting production and improving cash flow [10][12] - Major companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are expected to maintain strong cash flow and dividend policies, indicating long-term investment value [11][16][17] - The industry's overall profitability is anticipated to improve as demand stabilizes and production constraints are implemented [12][15] Group 4: Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of cash losses for many companies [19][20] - Companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are facing challenges but are expected to maintain stable profitability in their automotive glass segments [21][22] - The photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss phase, prompting accelerated cold repairs and production adjustments [25][26] Group 5: Fiber Industry - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand for mainstream electronic yarns, with a focus on high-end products like low-dielectric cloth [27][28] - Companies like China Jushi are expanding production capacity overseas to mitigate trade risks and maintain growth [29][30] - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery in wind power demand, with expectations of improved profitability in Q2 [32]