宏观日报 | 2025-05-09 关注基建行业相关投资项目开展 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注运输、基建投资项目推进。 1）国家发改委副主任郑备在新闻发布会上表示，民企促进法全文贯 穿了平等对待、公平竞争、同等保护、共同发展的原则，国家发展改革委将重点从破壁垒、拓空间、优服务等方 面推动落实。今年还将在交通运输、能源、水利、新型基础设施、城市基础设施等重点领域，推出总投资规模约3 万亿元的优质项目。 服务行业：云服务业务稳步增长。 1）工信部数据显示，今年一季度，我国软件和信息技术服务业稳健增长，完 成业务收入31479亿元，同比增长10.6%。分领域看，信息技术服务收入保持两位数增长，达到20820亿元，占全行 业收入近七成。其中，云计算、大数据服务共实现收入3540亿元，同比增长11.1%。一季度软件业务利润总额也保 持了两位数增长，达到11.6%。一季度软件业务出口增速由负转正，出口达到131亿美元，同比增长2.4%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续回落。2）有色：锌、铝、铅受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、建 材价格持续回落。4）农业 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-05-09 关注基建行业相关投资项目开展 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注运输、基建投资项目推进。 1）国家发改委副主任郑备在新闻发布会上表示，民企促进法全文贯 穿了平等对待、公平竞争、同等保护、共同发展的原则，国家发展改革委将重点从破壁垒、拓空间、优服务等方 面推动落实。今年还将在交通运输、能源、水利、新型基础设施、城市基础设施等重点领域，推出总投资规模约3 万亿元的优质项目。 服务行业：云服务业务稳步增长。 1）工信部数据显示，今年一季度，我国软件和信息技术服务业稳健增长，完 成业务收入31479亿元，同比增长10.6%。分领域看，信息技术服务收入保持两位数增长，达到20820亿元，占全行 业收入近七成。其中，云计算、大数据服务共实现收入3540亿元，同比增长11.1%。一季度软件业务利润总额也保 持了两位数增长，达到11.6%。一季度软件业务出口增速由负转正，出口达到131亿美元，同比增长2.4%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续回落。2）有色：锌 ...

5月8日，国新办举行新闻发布会，会上，全国人大常委会法工委副主任王瑞贺、国家发展改革委副主任郑 备、司法部副部长王振江、金融监督管理总局副局长丛林、全国工商联副主席方光华，介绍将于今年5月20 日正式施行的《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》的有关情况。 来看会上关键表述： 1、 还有一批配套制度机制正在加快推进，涉及投资融资促进、科技创新、服务保障、权益保护 等方面。同时，不少地方结合本地实际，也在积极完善相关配套。 把党和国家关于民营经济发展的基本方针政策和实践中的一些有效做法用法律形式确立下来，将支持和保障民 营经济发展的法律纳入中国特色社会主义法律体系。"从法治意义上讲，这是有创新意义的。"王瑞贺指出，制 定民营经济促进法充分表明，党和国家对民营经济发展的基本方针政策不会变，也不能变，必将推动支持民营 经济高质量发展的法律制度更加健全完备、保障体系更加有力有效。 民营经济促进法共9章78条，围绕公平竞争、投资融资促进、科技创新、规范经营、服务保障、权益保护等方 面建立完善相关制度机制。从内容看，该法律许多条文具有很强的针对性，如治理"背靠背"条款、规范行政执 法等方面的规定等。 据王振江介绍，民营经济促进 ...

Group 1 - Canada's trade deficit narrowed to 5.06 billion CAD in March 2025, significantly lower than the expected 15.6 billion CAD, indicating a decline in trade activity with the U.S. due to tariffs [1][8] - The imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum by the U.S. led to a 2.9% drop in imports from the U.S. and a 6.6% decrease in exports to the U.S. in March [2][8] - Despite a 10.2% year-over-year increase in exports, the total export value fell to 69.9 billion CAD in March, marking the second consecutive month of decline, primarily due to falling commodity prices [5][6] Group 2 - Total imports decreased to 70.4 billion CAD in March, a decline of 1.4% from February, with significant drops in metal and non-metal mineral products (down 15.8%) and energy products (down 18.8%) [6][8] - The economic outlook remains concerning, with a recorded contraction of 0.2% in February and potential growth in March not alleviating the overall pessimism [8][11] - The trade tensions have led to increased pressure on Canadian consumers, with potential price hikes on imported goods and risks of layoffs or hiring freezes in domestic manufacturing [11]

宏观日报 | 2025-05-08 4月物流业景气上升 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月新能源车销售增长。 1）根据月度初步乘联数据综合预估，4月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量114 万辆，同比增长42%，环比增长1%。综合预估今年1-4月累计批发400万辆，同比增长42%。2）据中国轻工业联合 会，一季度，在系列扩内需、促消费政策支持下，规模以上轻工企业实现营收5.4万亿元，同比增长4.8%；实现利 润超3000亿元，同比增长1.4%，轻工业经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进。 服务行业：物流业景气上升。 1）4月份中国物流业景气指数为51.1%。物流业务需求总体保持扩张态势，西部地 区回升明显。主要分项指数中，固定资产投资完成额指数创下近三年新高，铁路、水路投资均保持较快增长。2） 国家税务总局最新增值税发票数据显示，"五一"假期消费需求旺盛，增势良好。全国消费相关行业销售收入同比 增长15.2%。其中，在"以旧换新"政策带动下，家用电器和音像器材销售收入同比增长167.5%，通讯器材销售收入 同比增长118%，家具销售收入同比增长1.7倍。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [7]. Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing its energy assets and expanding its energy service business, which is expected to drive future growth [4][6]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 490 million yuan, down 46.9% year-on-year, primarily due to asset impairment losses and reduced non-operating income [4][11]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 21.5% year-on-year to 2.93 billion yuan, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 35.1% year-on-year [4][11]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 23.3% and 10.2%, respectively, showing improvements from the previous year [5]. - The company has been reducing its expense ratios, with significant decreases in sales, management, and financial expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [5]. - The energy asset business has a total installed capacity of 5,871.01 MW, including various energy sources such as thermal, coal, solar, wind, and storage [5][6]. Energy Service Business - The energy service segment saw a remarkable revenue growth of 337.25% in 2024, with energy-saving services growing by 500.67% and trading services by 188.46% [6]. - The company is actively investing in distributed solar power, with significant new installations and transfers in 2024 [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.02 billion yuan in 2025, 10.55 billion yuan in 2026, and 11.07 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 900 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.1 billion yuan [7][11]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the forecasted years are expected to be 13, 12, and 11, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [7]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue at 9.8 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year, and net profit at 490 million yuan, down 46.9% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to asset impairment losses and reduced non-operating income [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company showed signs of recovery with revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, up 21.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 250 million yuan, up 35.1% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its energy assets and expanding its energy service business, particularly in energy efficiency and trading services, which saw significant growth in 2024 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 10.02 billion yuan, 10.55 billion yuan, and 11.07 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 900 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.1 billion yuan [7][11]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 23.3% and 10.2%, respectively, showing improvements due to a decrease in various expense ratios [5]. - The company’s total installed capacity reached 5,871.01 MW by the end of 2024, with a diverse portfolio including thermal, solar, wind, and energy storage projects [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of consumer loans in the context of increasing gold prices and interest rates, highlighting how individuals are leveraging loans for investment opportunities, particularly in gold, amidst a changing financial landscape [6][7][10]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Trends - There is a notable increase in consumer loan applications as individuals seek to capitalize on low interest rates before anticipated hikes [10][20]. - Many borrowers are using consumer loans to refinance existing debts, particularly to replace higher-interest loans with lower-rate bank loans, indicating a shift towards debt restructuring [21][22]. - The demographic of borrowers primarily consists of stable-income individuals, such as government employees and those in public sectors, who are often described as "stable but poor" [13][20]. Group 2: Investment Behavior - Individuals like Wang Shu are taking significant risks by borrowing large sums to invest in gold, driven by the belief that gold prices will continue to rise [6][9]. - The article illustrates a trend where borrowers are not only using loans for consumption but also for speculative investments, which raises concerns about the sustainability of such financial behavior [23]. - There is a growing community sharing strategies and experiences related to consumer loans on social media, indicating a collective shift towards leveraging debt for investment purposes [10][12]. Group 3: Financial Strategies - Borrowers are increasingly employing creative financial strategies, such as using consumer loans to pay off existing debts or invest in assets like gold, which they perceive as safer or more profitable [11][17]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding financial products and market conditions, as seen in the actions of individuals who actively seek out the best loan terms and conditions [18][19]. - There is a recognition among borrowers of the need to maintain a balance between leveraging debt and managing financial risks, as evidenced by the experiences shared in the article [22][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the strengthening of China-Russia relations amidst a changing global order, with a focus on strategic cooperation and mutual benefits [1][2][4][5] - The visit of President Xi Jinping to Russia is framed as a continuation of the deepening political trust and strategic collaboration between the two nations, highlighting their commitment to a non-aligned and non-confrontational relationship [1][6][8] - Experts suggest that the current international landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for China and Russia, necessitating a proactive approach to maintain stability and foster development [5][7][11] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and Russia is characterized by a significant reliance on energy trade, which constitutes over one-third of their bilateral trade, while also expanding into sectors like agriculture and technology [13][14][15] - Despite recent fluctuations in trade volumes, projections indicate that bilateral trade could reach between $300 billion and $350 billion by 2030, driven by ongoing cooperation in various sectors [13][14] - The articles discuss the need for diversification in trade structures, with suggestions for enhancing cooperation in high-tech industries, services, and small and medium enterprises [16][17][18] Group 3 - The integration of China's Belt and Road Initiative with Russia's Eurasian Economic Union is seen as a pathway to enhance economic ties and benefit Central Asian and Eastern European countries [18][19] - The potential for collaboration in the Arctic and resource development is highlighted as a significant opportunity for both nations, emphasizing the importance of joint efforts in addressing global challenges [17][18] - The articles underscore the importance of maintaining a cooperative stance in the face of geopolitical tensions, with both countries aiming to avoid direct competition in Central Asia while fostering economic connections [19][20]

Group 1 - The new headquarters of Suzhou Baisheng Power Machinery Co., Ltd. was inaugurated with a total investment of 368 million yuan, featuring advanced production lines and photovoltaic power generation and storage facilities, expected to add 76,400 high-end water propulsion equipment annually upon reaching full production [1] - Baisheng Power, a leading company in the outboard motor sector in China, has nearly 80% of its product exports, serving over 100 countries and regions, with an annual compound sales growth rate exceeding 20% [1] - The company aims to strengthen its market presence in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging its core technology advantages and increasing R&D investment, with plans to apply for over 40 patents and train 300 high-skilled technicians within three years [1] Group 2 - Multiple high-quality projects have been signed in Suzhou High-tech Zone, including the Suzhou Intelligent Robot Training Center and the new headquarters of Jingkong Energy with a total investment of 500 million yuan, alongside a 680 million yuan smart energy storage project [2] - In the first quarter of this year, Suzhou High-tech Zone signed 48 new projects with a total investment of 14.5 billion yuan and initiated 47 new projects with a total investment of 35.22 billion yuan [2] - The district has launched a 2025 action plan to optimize the business environment, introducing 32 initiatives focused on enhancing market, innovation, government, legal, and cultural environments, including the establishment of "Industrial Neighborhood Centers" and a "Business Service Supermarket" [2]