Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's hawkish stance in the March meeting, including maintaining interest rates, raising growth and inflation forecasts, and slightly revising up the long - term neutral interest rate, has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Precious metals have entered a stage of high - volatility adjustment, shifting from being dominated by "safe - haven premiums" to a situation where "safe - haven support remains, but interest rates and the US dollar impose stronger constraints" [1]. - Gold is currently in a stage where "safe - haven support and interest - rate suppression" coexist. Short - term trends may feature high - level adjustments and mood swings. Its medium - term allocation value remains if the market's pricing of stagflation intensifies, but it may face further valuation pressure if US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise [2]. - Silver is likely to continue high - volatility adjustments in the short term. Its performance depends on the marginal changes in the US dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. If the market turns to stagflation trading and the risk appetite for industrial metals stabilizes, its elasticity relative to gold may recover, but the recovery pace may be slower during the Fed's hawkish phase [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Market Overview - The Fed's March meeting sent hawkish signals, causing the market to reduce bets on rate cuts within the year. As a result, the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices and putting pressure on silver [1]. Gold Analysis - **Logic**: The Fed's policies are not loose as it maintains the median of one rate cut this year while raising GDP and PCE forecasts and the long - term interest rate center. Powell's remarks on oil - price impacts on inflation and the need for restrictive interest rates have weakened rate - cut expectations, directly suppressing gold. However, due to ongoing Middle - East tensions and energy - supply risks, there is still buying support for gold [2]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will experience high - level adjustments and mood swings. If oil prices rise and affect growth, the market's stagflation pricing may strengthen, enhancing gold's medium - term value. If US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise, gold may face more valuation pressure [2]. Silver Analysis - **Logic**: In a hawkish Fed environment with a strong US dollar and volatile risk assets, silver is more elastic and has larger回调幅度 than gold. Oil - price shocks may drag on silver's industrial attributes if they suppress global demand. The current market trading theme makes silver more vulnerable to capital re - balancing [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver will likely continue high - volatility adjustments in the short term. Its performance depends on the US dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. If the market turns to stagflation trading and industrial - metal risk appetite stabilizes, its elasticity relative to gold may recover, but the recovery may be slower [3]. Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial products index was 2557.35, down 0.31% [40]. - The precious metals index on March 18, 2026, was 4226.30, with a daily decline of 0.84%, a 5 - day decline of 4.51%, a 1 - month decline of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.51% [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75% in March, in line with market expectations, but the future interest rate path is unclear. The escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has added complexity, and the Fed's concerns about inflation have increased, but it is not yet at the stage of needing to raise interest rates. The US dollar is expected to continue to strengthen in the short term [18]. - The situation between the US and Iran has escalated again, leading to a continuous decline in global stock markets. The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume V - shaped reversal, but in the short term, there are few opportunities in the market, and it is recommended to wait and see the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [23]. - The central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Although the US dollar and oil prices weakened during the bond futures trading session, with stocks and bonds strengthening, the news that the US has started to attack Iranian oil facilities has caused oil prices to strengthen again, and there are still negative disturbances in the bond market [3]. - The price of imported thermal coal in the market remained stable on March 18. Although the short - term price is stable, there is still an upward risk in the previous period. It is necessary to wait for external situation changes [4]. - Due to the Israeli attack on Iranian energy facilities, the weak fundamentals of zinc and the resonance of capital risk - aversion have led to a short - term continuation of the weak and volatile trend of zinc prices, and it is advisable to wait for the full release of market sentiment [5]. - After the Israeli attack on the Iranian gas field and Iran's vow to retaliate, oil prices have risen significantly, and the safety risk of energy facilities in the Middle East has increased significantly [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Powell stated that most people do not consider raising interest rates as the basic expectation. If there is no progress in inflation, the Fed will not cut interest rates. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75% in March, in line with market expectations. The US PPI in February increased more than expected, which increased short - term inflation pressure and reduced the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates. In the short term, precious metals will continue the weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait for the callback to buy gold, and silver performs weaker than gold [11][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US producer price in February increased more than expected. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in March, but the future economic outlook is unclear. Due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the US economy being uncertain, the Fed tends to continue observing. Overall, the Fed's concerns about inflation have increased, but it is not yet at the stage of needing to raise interest rates. The US dollar is expected to continue to rise in the short term [15][18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and Powell's statement was significantly hawkish, emphasizing the risk of rising oil prices on inflation and even mentioning the possibility of raising interest rates. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled again. In the short term, the US stock market will still operate weakly, and it is recommended to take a risk - averse and wait - and - see approach [20][21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume V - shaped reversal. Due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, global stock markets continued to decline, and risk - aversion trading dominated. In the short term, there are few opportunities in the market, and it is recommended to wait and see the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The stock index strategy should adopt a low - position risk - aversion approach [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan on the day. Although the US dollar and oil prices weakened during the bond futures trading session, with stocks and bonds strengthening, the news that the US has started to attack Iranian oil facilities has caused oil prices to strengthen again, and there are still negative disturbances in the bond market. In the short term, the cost - performance of short - selling is slightly higher than that of long - buying [25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - On March 18, the price of imported thermal coal in the market remained stable. Due to factors such as the Ramadan in Indonesia and the incomplete implementation of RKAB, the mines' price - holding sentiment continued. The supply of low - calorie coal was tight, and the international coal shipping cost continued to rise, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of market cargoes and high landed costs of imported coal. In the short term, the price of thermal coal is stable, but there is an upward risk in the previous period, and it is necessary to wait for external situation changes [27][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP announced that Brandon Craig will replace Mike Henry as the CEO. The demand for iron ore started weakly after the Spring Festival, and the overseas demand under external conflicts is highly uncertain. The steel mills are still in the process of small - scale resumption of production, and the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The cost of iron ore has increased by about $5 due to the increase in overseas energy prices. It is expected that the price of iron ore will continue to be in a volatile market [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In February, China's automobile exports increased significantly, while the exports of steel plates and bars decreased. The steel price showed an obvious decline after rising during the day, indicating that the market lacks a trend - driving force. The inventory inflection point of finished steel products is approaching, but the subsequent inventory reduction speed is still uncertain. The demand for building materials is weak, and the terminal manufacturing demand for coils is differentiated. The Middle East situation has also had an impact on steel exports. In the short term, it is recommended to treat the market with a volatile mindset, and the upward space of steel prices is limited [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in December decreased significantly. The overall decline in the oil market yesterday was mainly due to the weakening of international crude oil prices. Brazil plans to raise the biodiesel blending ratio to 16%, and Indonesia is considering resuming B50, increasing the linkage between the oil market and the energy market. In the short term, the oil market is mainly dominated by crude oil trends and national biofuel policies. It is recommended to participate in long positions at low prices or wait and see [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 13, the inventory of domestic and foreign - traded corn in Guangdong Port decreased, while the inventory of imported sorghum increased and that of imported barley decreased. The inventory of corn in the four northern ports increased, and the throughput also increased. The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises increased. The supply side is affected by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and the increase in grain sources. The downstream demand has rigid support, but there is no large - scale replenishment. In the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty game. In the long term, the corn price is expected to stabilize and rebound, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of grassroots grain supply, reserve procurement policies, and wheat auction dynamics [36][39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen's sow production capacity utilization rate was basically at full - load production at the end of 2025. The pig - breeding industry is in a critical and painful period of "market - oriented deep - loss production reduction". In the short term, the supply peak and the pressure of passive inventory accumulation still dominate the market. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and wait and see for far - month contracts [42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds has dominated the market, suppressing non - ferrous and precious metals. The fundamental driving force of platinum and palladium has weakened compared with the end of last year. In the short term, platinum and palladium may continue the weak and volatile performance, and platinum may perform better than palladium. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of long - platinum and short - palladium in the medium term [44][45][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of lead was weak and volatile, mainly due to macro - level drag. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased, suppressing the lead price. There is cost support for lead, and the downstream purchasing power has increased, but the terminal consumption is still weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term [48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The price of zinc continued to decline, mainly due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic social inventory reached a high level in the past five years, dragging down the zinc price. Although the downstream production has gradually returned to normal, most manufacturers are still waiting and seeing. In the short term, the zinc price may continue the weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term [49][50]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Core Lithium plans to restart the Finniss lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 214,000 tons of lithium concentrate SC6. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for power batteries is still uncertain. In the short term, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is supported, but in the long term, the new energy substitution narrative provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on significant dips [52][53][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The supply side has a strong expectation of repair, and the demand side is weak. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate in the short term [56][57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran attacked the US - exclusive area of the Riyadh refinery, and Israel attacked the Iranian gas field, causing Iran to vow to retaliate. Oil prices have risen significantly, and the safety risk of energy facilities in the Middle East has increased significantly, which will further boost the risk premium [57][58][59]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased. Due to the shortage of raw materials, the supply has decreased significantly, and the risk of asphalt supply interruption has increased. The geopolitical risk has further increased, and the asphalt price is still prone to rise and difficult to fall [60][61]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises decreased, and the LLDPE inventory decreased significantly. The decrease in inventory is due to reduced supply and increased downstream purchasing. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed [62][63]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The urea futures price has been oscillating at a high level recently. With the continuation of the Iranian conflict, overseas urea prices have risen sharply. However, the policy guidance has been strengthened, and the upper limit of the urea 05 contract will be restricted. It is recommended that market participants replenish inventory based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [64][66]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The acquisition of ZIM by Hapag - Lloyd is facing strict review by Israeli regulatory authorities. The spot market quotes are showing a differentiated trend. Although the supply of shipping capacity in April is expected to be large, some shipping companies have raised their quotes, laying the foundation for the increase in freight rates in April. It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile mindset and pay attention to the impact of oil price fluctuations on the European - line market [67][68].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The operation rating for gold is ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [1]. - The operation rating for silver is ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1]. Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The situation of the US - Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. Iran's senior officials rejected the proposal of "easing tensions or achieving peace with the US" [1]. - High oil prices have intensified concerns about inflation prospects, and precious metals are suppressed by the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting guidance early tomorrow morning [1]. - The "Fed whisperer" said that the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks are two - way factors [2]. - Trump said he is not ready to end the conflict but will leave in the near future. The White House economic advisor said the war in Iran will last for weeks rather than months [2]. - The US President Trump has confirmed the postponement of his visit to China. The two sides will continue to communicate about this matter [2]. Group 3: Other Summaries - Red stars represent a predicted upward trend, green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star means a bullish/bearish bias with limited market operability; two stars mean a clear upward/downward trend with the market fermenting; three stars mean a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. White stars indicate a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The war in the Middle East has lasted for 19 days with no sign of easing, and the core variable of oil price trends depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume smooth passage. Before the strait resumes safe passage, oil prices are likely to remain high, but market sentiment is cautious and price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - The market trading focus of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil is on the actual passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait resumes passage, it will be a gradual process, and the supply constraint will not be immediately lifted. The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil is tight, and the market has strong support below, but prices will fluctuate widely [2]. - In April, the refining plan of local refineries decreased to 862,000 tons, and the inventory of refineries and social inventory are at a low level. With the improvement of the asphalt fundamentals and the momentum of supplementary increase, the BU futures price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure brought by the callback of crude oil prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Iran's national security leader was assassinated by Israel, and the war has not eased. Trump's call for an expanded shipping alliance has not received a positive response from NATO allies [1]. - An oil facility in the UAE's Fujairah port was attacked by drones, and oil loading and unloading operations were suspended. Iraq and the Kurds reached an agreement to resume oil exports through the Kurdish pipeline, with a daily transport capacity of at least 150,000 - 200,000 barrels from the Kirkuk oil field and an additional 210,000 barrels from the Kurdish region [1]. - The core variable of oil price trends depends on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily supply gap of more than 10 million barrels is difficult to fill, and short-term measures are not enough to stabilize oil prices. Strategic oil reserves are mainly for emergency use, and major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are facing supply bottlenecks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The market trading focus is on the passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. If ships can pass through smoothly, it may drive more non-European and American shipowners to follow, gradually alleviating the supply interruption expectation [2]. - Even if the strait resumes passage, it will be a gradual process, and the supply constraint will not be immediately lifted. The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is tight due to raw material and product shipment blockages and energy facility attacks. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is also showing signs of contraction, and the refined oil cracking spread provides support [2]. Asphalt - In April, the refining plan of local refineries decreased to 862,000 tons, the lowest level in recent years. The shipment volume of sample refineries increased this week, and the cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed. The refinery inventory remained flat, and the social inventory was basically the same as the same period last year, with little commercial inventory pressure [3]. - Since the geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and downstream petrochemical futures have generally risen, while the previous increase of asphalt was relatively lagging. In mid-March, with the improvement of the asphalt fundamentals and the momentum of supplementary increase, the BU futures price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure brought by the callback of crude oil prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of precious metals is weak today. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed down 0.79%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed down 2.37%, Platinum's main contract closed down 1.18%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 1.73% [1] - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Iran rejected the proposal to de - escalate the conflict, and Israel claimed to have killed an Iranian security official. The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, and the world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation. The market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the latest US consumer spending has grown steadily, and the Iranian situation will intensify inflation pressure. The unexpected decrease in US employment and the rise in the unemployment rate in February challenge the Fed's view that the labor market is stabilizing. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of an interest rate hike is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's rate - cutting cycle is nearing its end, and the next rate cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a low level in the medium term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5011.30 per ounce, down $187.40 (-3.60%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $5016.80 per ounce, up $21.95 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $192.90 (-3.70%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1113.52 yuan per gram, down 2.68 yuan (-0.24%) from the previous day and down 38.46 yuan (-3.34%) from the previous week [2] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1381 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons (-0.27%) [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.46 per ounce, down $1.54 (-1.90%) from the previous day and down $9.11 (-10.29%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $80.22 per ounce, up $1.27 (1.61%) from the previous day and down $8.31 (-9.39%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 19980 yuan per kilogram, down 328 yuan (-1.62%) from the previous day and down 2276 yuan (-10.23%) from the previous week [4] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2407 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 149.31 tons (-0.96%) [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up $88.70 (4.38%) from the previous day and down $76.00 (-3.47%) from the previous week; London platinum closed at $2118.00 per ounce, up $41.00 (1.97%) from the previous day and down $14.00 (-0.66%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 19.90 yuan (3.73%) from the previous day and down 9.85 yuan (-1.75%) from the previous week [6] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2633 lots [6] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day and down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week; London palladium closed at $1601.00 per ounce, down $49.00 (-3.04%) from the previous day and down $49.00 (-2.97%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 9.20 yuan (2.31%) from the previous day and down 15.80 yuan (-3.73%) from the previous week [7] - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained at - 362 lots [7] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8] - US economic data: GDP (annualized YoY): 2.10%, down 0.30% from the previous value; unemployment rate: 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous value; non - farm payrolls monthly change: - 9.20 million, down 2.18% from the previous value [8][10] - Other data: Geopolitical risk index: 248.83, down 46.73 (-15.81%) from the previous week; VIX index: 22.37, down 1.14 (-4.85%) from the previous day and down 2.56 (-10.27%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index: 364.40, up 4.68 (1.30%) from the previous day and up 9.43 (2.66%) from the previous week [10] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points on March 18, 2026, is 99.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges changes over different meeting dates in the future [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazilian soybean exports in March 2026 are slower than last year, while the average export price has increased; the supply of soybeans in April has shifted from loose to slightly tight, and the price of soybean meal has fallen from a high level but still has some support below. [1][2] - If crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, Indonesia may accelerate the implementation of its B50 plan, and palm oil prices have room to rise further; it is estimated that the average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 is 4,100 ringgit per ton. [2] - In the context of high - oil prices, the policy benefits of biofuels in Indonesia and the United States may be gradually realized; it is expected that the prices of edible oils will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month. [3] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) has updated the phytosanitary certification procedures for grain shipments to China, with samples mainly collected by independent supervision companies. MAPA inspectors will still sample 1 in every 10 ships. The new rule takes effect immediately for unsampled goods. [1] - From March 1 - 13, 2026, Brazilian soybean exports were 6.507 million tons, and the average daily export volume decreased by 15.6% year - on - year. The average export price per ton increased by 5.4% year - on - year. [1] - Brazil temporarily cancelled a quarantine measure, but the arrival of soybean ships in April was postponed to May, and the soybean supply in April shifted from loose to slightly tight. Trump postponed his visit to China, and the demand for US soybeans weakened, causing soybean meal prices to fall from a high level, with some support below. Attention should be paid to subsequent soybean reserve release announcements. [2] Edible Oils - If crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Indonesia may accelerate the implementation of B50 to save foreign exchange. The average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 is predicted to be 4,100 ringgit per ton, and there is room for further price increases if B50 is implemented. [2] - From March 1 - 15, 2026, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 443,812 tons, an increase of 12.68% compared with the same period last month. [2] - High crude oil prices make biofuel - producing countries eager to implement policies, and the policy benefits may be realized as oil prices remain high. It is estimated that edible oils will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation around the end of the month. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of an additional 300,000 tons of cotton processing trade sliding-duty tariff quotas by the state is aimed at alleviating the tight supply of raw materials during the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" and stabilizing the production expectations of export-oriented textile enterprises. Although it exerts some short - term pressure on cotton prices, its long - term impact on the overall pattern of the domestic cotton market is limited. Due to the delay of Trump's visit to China, the near - term demand growth expectation may not be met, causing a certain decline in cotton prices, but the decline is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] - As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 10.5%. China's sugar imports from January to February 2026 increased significantly year - on - year. The sugar market is generally in a stage of loose supply and demand, especially the international raw sugar supply and demand is obviously loose. The domestic market is stronger than the foreign market in the first half of the year, and the rise and fall of crude oil drives the sugar price to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Cotton - The state issued an additional 300,000 tons of cotton processing trade sliding - duty tariff quotas, much earlier than the usual time from July to August. This move aims to ease the tight supply of raw materials during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and stabilize the production expectations of export - oriented textile enterprises. In the short term, it puts pressure on cotton prices, but has limited long - term impact on the domestic cotton market. The delay of Trump's visit to China may lead to a decline in cotton prices, but the decline is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] Sugar - As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 10.5%. In January and February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, a year - on - year increase of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons respectively. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative sugar imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,900 tons. As of the end of February in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.2826 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 741,700 tons. The sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, especially the international raw sugar supply and demand is obviously loose. The domestic market is stronger than the foreign market in the first half of the year, and the rise and fall of crude oil drives the sugar price to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Due to the spring maintenance and the reduction of production load in the domestic chemical industry, there is still room and momentum for the price to rise further. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of buying on dips and closely monitor the current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil [3] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The 600,000 - ton Gulei plant was shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. The styrene output decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79% [1] - Demand: The downstream operating rates of styrene varied. The EPS operating rate decreased by 0.98% to 57.78%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 67.4%, the UPR operating rate increased by 3% to 38%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 75.65% [1] - Inventory: The styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, the East China port inventory decreased by 10.88% to 156,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 3.77% to 51,000 tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Iran launched missiles with cluster warheads at Tel Aviv, Israel [2] - The US has clarified that Trump's visit to China has nothing to do with the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Federal Reserve officials will announce the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The situation in the Middle East is volatile, and the short - term fluctuations of crude oil have intensified. The exchange has increased the margin ratio and daily price limit for styrene and pure benzene. It is necessary to control risks [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material supply of ferronickel will face contraction, leading to production cut pressure. The production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, but the increase in ferronickel prices has raised the cost - end support. Steel mill maintenance during the Spring Festival has reduced production, easing supply pressure. The downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and stainless steel exports will face pressure due to policy adjustments. The current inventory level is basically the same as last year, and the inventory pressure is controllable. With the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, it is gradually entering the de - stocking cycle. Technically, the price is falling, and the short - selling atmosphere is strengthening. It is expected that the stainless steel futures price will be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the support level at 13,800 [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,020 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spread between the 05 - 06 contracts is 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 481 hands, down 230 hands; the main contract position is 117,524 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 53,541 tons, down 421 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of stainless steel is 500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 138,000 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,105 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 645,600 tons, down 6,700 tons; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [3]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on seven aspects. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" to plan and implement major projects. The National Energy Administration shows that the cumulative power consumption from January to February increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed tends to be silent this week. Trump requests to postpone the visit to China and the Sino - US summit [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined, with the yields of bonds maturing in less than 7 years dropping by about 1.25 - 1.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreasing by 0.81bp and 0.45bp respectively, reported at 1.83% and 2.29%. Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.04%, 0.08%, 0.12%, and 0.23% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.43% and fluctuated. In the domestic fundamental aspect, from January to February, social retail and fixed - asset investment rebounded slightly compared to the previous values, industrial growth maintained strong resilience, the supply - demand contradiction eased, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the same period. In February, social financing and credit were higher than market expectations. Under the effect of the Spring Festival date difference, the support of government bonds for social financing weakened; credit showed a structure of weak household and strong enterprise, with weak household credit expansion and improved enterprise investment willingness under policy guidance. Overseas, the tense situation in the Middle East continued. The US believed that after three weeks of the US and Israel's strikes on Iran, the Iranian regime was weakened but its stance became more rigid. As energy prices continued to rise, the risk of "stagflation - like" in the US economy increased, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision in March. Overall, the economy in 2026 had a good start, and the structure of strong supply and weak demand improved. The price level in February exceeded expectations and rose, and the continuous fermentation of the Iranian situation promoted the strengthening of imported inflation expectations, so the pace of PPI turning positive year - on - year might accelerate. Affected by this, the short - term expectation of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut cooled down, the market lacked strong bullish logic support, the bond market sentiment was pessimistic, and it was expected that interest rates would continue the weak and volatile pattern. Structurally, the inter - bank deposit pricing self - regulatory mechanism and the resilience of the capital market provided some support for short - term interest rates, while the long - term faced double pressure from fundamental recovery and inflation expectations, and the yield curve might continue to steepen [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.265 (up 0.12%), 105.995 (up 0.08%), 102.500 (up 0.04%), and 110.980 (up 0.23%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 67,638 (up 11,013), 52,638 (up 216), 39,291 (up 8,159), and 70,870 (up 9,128) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: For example, the TL2606 - 2609 spread was 0.29 (up 0.01), the T2606 - 2609 spread was 0.06 (up 0.03), etc. [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL were 286,564 (up 4,356), 172,424 (down 773), 74,784 (down 496), and 131,297 (up 623) respectively. The net positions of the top 20 long and short positions of each contract also changed [2]. 3.2 Bond Data - **CTD Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 230004.IB (6y), 250025.IB (6y) increased, for example, 230004.IB increased by 0.0824 to 108.2922 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds were 1.2525% (down 0.75bp), 1.3625% (down 1.75bp), 1.5650% (down 0.25bp), 1.6910% (down 0.65bp), and 1.8381% (down 0.38bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.3379% (up 3.29bp), the Shibor overnight rate was 1.3200% (up 0.10bp), etc. [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates were 3.00% and 3.5% respectively, with no change [2]. 3.4 Policy Information - **Ministry of Finance Policy**: In 2026, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including expanding the fiscal expenditure scale, optimizing the government bond tool combination, improving the efficiency of transfer payment funds, optimizing the expenditure structure, and strengthening fiscal - financial coordination. It will also support the construction of a strong domestic market, implement a package of fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand, carry out a special consumption - boosting action, and improve the management of the "negative list" for special bond investment areas [2][3]. - **SASAC Policy**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized focusing on "two important" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance, implementing the "AI +" special action for central enterprises, and accelerating the optimization and adjustment of the state - owned economic layout [3].