黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续跌势，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3052 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 12 元/吨，跌幅为 0.39%，持仓增加 6 万手。现货市场已处于有价无市局面，报价稳中有跌，唐山地 | | | | 区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2900 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3160 元/吨。目前钢厂产量 | | | | 仅小幅下降，需求快速收缩，近期各地库存加速累积，杭州市场螺纹钢库存达到 79.3 万吨，唐山钢坯库 | | | | 存达到约 154 万吨，均明显超出去年同期水平，节后库存面临较大的消化压力，对市场情绪形成一定影 | | | | 响。同时，近期铁矿石、煤焦库存持续累积，随着钢厂补库结束，原料端价格连续下跌，原料对钢价支撑 | | | | 力度减弱。预计短期螺纹盘面仍以弱势整理运行为主。 | | | | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格窄幅震荡，收于 761.5 元/吨， ...

钢铁行业2025年供需格局虽未根本扭转，但原材料成本下降为全行业减亏提供支撑。同期部分钢企已实 现扭亏，行业分化中鞍钢股份的减亏进展被市场关注。此外，春节前焦炭价格暂稳运行，钢厂按需采 购，成本端压力略有缓解，对股价形成温和支撑。 股价情况 经济观察网鞍钢股份（000898）在2026年2月11日出现逆势上涨，其股价表现与公司基本面改善、行业 环境及市场资金流向等因素相关。截至当日午盘，鞍钢股份报收2.59元，上涨1.57%，表现优于大盘。 目前经营状况 鞍钢股份于2026年1月31日发布业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润亏损40.77亿元，较2024年同期减亏约 42.75%。这一改善主要得益于公司推进成本控制、产线升级及高端产品转型，叠加行业原材料成本下 行，缓解了盈利压力。尽管全年仍为亏损，但减亏幅度显著，增强了投资者对经营改善的预期。 资金面情况 2月11日主力资金净流入1167.73万元，而前一交易日主力资金为净流入63.08万元，连续两日净流入表明 短期资金关注度提升。此外，2025年12月初融资净买入曾连续三日累计达395.6万元，反映部分投资者 中长期信心逐步恢复。 行业状况 从技术指标看，鞍 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to December [1] - The decline in CPI is attributed to the Spring Festival timing and a significant drop in energy prices, which decreased by 5.0%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with an expansion of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Factors contributing to the PPI increase include the ongoing construction of a unified national market and rising demand in certain industries [5] - Prices in sectors such as photovoltaic, battery, cement, and steel have shown positive improvements due to the "anti-involution" policies implemented last year [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Price Changes - In January, prices for cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery manufacturing increased by 0.1%, continuing a four-month upward trend [5] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components shifted from a 0.2% decrease to a 1.9% increase, while basic chemical raw materials saw a 0.7% increase [5] - The prices of non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose significantly, with silver smelting prices increasing by 38.2% and copper smelting by 8.4% [6] Group 4: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that favorable factors for moderate price recovery are accumulating, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing market expectations [6] - The implementation of coordinated fiscal and financial policies is expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [6] - Emphasis on industry self-regulation and capacity management is anticipated to further enhance price recovery in key sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that by 2026, companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are expected to have strong dividend potential, supported by favorable conditions in market value management, high dividend strategies, and declining capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries [1] Group 1: Dividend Potential of Companies - Companies recommended for strong dividend potential include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), Baosteel (600019.SH), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), with China Aluminum (601600.SH) suggested for further observation [1] - China Shenhua's cash dividend ratio increased significantly from an average of 39% (2008-2016) to 151% in 2017, with an average of 74% from 2018 to 2024, driven by low debt ratios, reduced capital expenditures, and high undistributed profits [1] Group 2: High Dividend Yield Companies - As of February 6, 2026, there are only eight companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors with dividend yields above 3%, including Youfa Group (6.90%), Baosteel (4.18%), and Jiuli Special Materials (3.23%) [2] Group 3: Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - Three favorable factors for potential dividend increases in the steel and aluminum sectors include: 1. Market value management being included in assessments, encouraging companies to enhance cash dividends [3] 2. Large-scale entry of insurance capital, making high dividend strategies a core asset allocation choice [3] 3. Gradual decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, allowing for increased cash dividends [3] - A scoring system based on undistributed profits, cash reserves, and debt ratios identifies 14 companies with strong dividend potential, with Hualing Steel and Baosteel scoring highest in the steel sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that by 2026, certain companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are expected to have strong dividend potential, supported by favorable conditions in market value management, high dividend strategies, and declining capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries [1] Group 1: Dividend Potential of Companies - Companies recommended for strong dividend potential include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), Baosteel (600019.SH), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), with China Aluminum (601600.SH) suggested for further attention [1] - The analysis indicates that only 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential based on undistributed profits to total market value, cash reserves to total market value, and debt ratios [4] Group 2: Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - Three key factors are identified that may enhance the dividend potential of steel and aluminum companies: 1. Inclusion of market value management in assessments, encouraging companies to increase cash dividends [3] 2. Significant entry of insurance capital into the market, making high-dividend assets a core investment strategy [3] 3. Anticipated decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, which may lead to higher cash dividend ratios [3] Group 3: Current Dividend Yields - As of February 6, 2026, there are only eight companies in the steel and aluminum sectors with dividend yields above 3%, with notable yields from Youfa Group (6.90%), Erdos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2]

Investment Rating - Steel industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] - Non-ferrous industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in the steel and aluminum sectors, driven by three main factors: the inclusion of market value management in assessments, significant insurance capital entering the market, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the steel and aluminum industries [3][5][29]. Summary by Sections Dividend Potential Analysis - The report identifies that only 8 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors currently have dividend yields above 3%, with notable companies including Youfa Group (6.90%), Ordos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2][22]. - A total of 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, which includes having a high ratio of undistributed profits to total market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt ratio below 60% [4][32]. Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - The inclusion of market value management in the assessment of central enterprises is expected to accelerate the realization of dividend potential, as it encourages companies to enhance their market performance and return value to investors through increased cash dividends [3][25]. - The influx of insurance capital into the market is pushing for a revaluation of dividend-paying assets, as high dividend strategies become a core choice for insurance companies seeking stable returns [3][27]. - Capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries are anticipated to decline as the steel industry's ultra-low emission upgrades conclude and aluminum production approaches capacity limits, which may lead to higher future dividend payouts [3][30]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios, specifically highlighting Huazhong Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials as key investment opportunities, while suggesting to keep an eye on China Aluminum [5][34].

东方证券指出，低位周期中具备红利吸引力的板块值得关注，宏观层面看，目前正处于PPI持续下行的 触底期，从市场预期角度看，PPI和行业盈利正处在低位回升的节点。在反内卷背景下有政策变化的行 业内，关注供给出清且有盈利弹性的板块，重点关注其中红利吸引力提升的板块。（文中所列示的行业 仅供参考，不预示本基金未来表现，不作为投资收益保证，也不构成对具体行业的投资建议） 国企红利ETF紧密跟踪中证国有企业红利指数，从国有企业中选取现金股息率高、分红比较稳定且有一 定规模及流动性的100只上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映国有企业中高股息率证券的整体表现。 据Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证国有企业红利指数前十大权重股分别为中远海控、潞安环 能、西部矿业、山煤国际、恒源煤电、平煤股份、山西焦煤、兖矿能源、陕西煤业、华阳股份，前十大 权重股合计占比16.61%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况 不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场 有风险，投资需谨慎） 2026年2月11日早盘，截至11:05，中证国有企业红利指数上涨0.2 ...

截至2026年2月11日 10:58，大宗商品ETF(510170)上涨2.49%，冲击四连涨+四连阳！盘中换手2.63%， 成交1573.30万元。成分股中国巨石上涨9.99%，恒力石化上涨6.65%，厦门钨业上涨6.57%，北方稀土， 华友钴业等个股跟涨。 华源证券指出，库存累积，铜价短期或迎来降波震荡。日前中国有色金属工业协会表示研究将铜精矿纳 入国家储备，这或将利好铜中长期价格。中长期看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频发，铜矿供需格 局或将由紧平衡转向短缺，同时铜冶炼在"反内卷"背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入降息周 期，铜价有望突破上行。 大宗商品ETF(510170)，场外联接(A类：257060；C类：015577)。 风险提示：以上所有信息仅作为参考，不构成投资建议，一切投资操作信息不能作为投资依据。投资有 风险，入市需谨慎。 大宗商品ETF(510170)具备行业均衡配置优势，前五大行业分别为有色金属、煤炭、基础化工、石油石 化、钢铁，实现对大宗商品核心产业链的全面覆盖，能有效捕捉大宗商品轮涨机会，风险分散能力突 出，成长空间可期。值得一提的是，上证大宗商品股票指数50只成分股全部来自 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and other non-ferrous metals experienced significant declines, with main futures contracts hitting their daily limit down, including stainless steel at 13,420 CNY/ton (-7.03%), gold at 1,005 CNY/gram (-16%), and nickel at 129,650 CNY/ton (-11%) [1] - The stainless steel market has shown a one-sided downward trend, with the main contract breaking below the 13,500 CNY mark, erasing all gains from late January [1] - Total positions in the market decreased by 18,490 contracts, indicating a significant reduction in long positions as panic selling intensified [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump has raised hawkish expectations, contributing to a record drop in international precious metal prices [3] - Current probabilities for Federal Reserve interest rate changes indicate a 15.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut by March and a 49.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by June [3] Group 3: Steel Prices and Production - Major steel producers like Qingshan Group and Delong have maintained stable prices for 304 cold-rolled steel, with prices around 14,550 CNY/ton [4] - Recent surveys indicate that steel plant maintenance and production cuts have affected output by approximately 630,000 tons, with the 300 series being the most impacted [5] - Despite the downward pressure on futures prices, the physical market remains resilient due to production cuts and high costs, suggesting potential for a rebound if macroeconomic conditions stabilize [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is sluggish, and steel prices are weakly consolidating. The low downstream demand remains the key factor dragging down steel prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the spot market is gradually entering the holiday rhythm. There may still be capital outflows before the festival, leading to a decline in market trading volume. The macro - environment is calm and has little impact on prices [1][2] - The raw materials market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - The market is in a downturn, and steel prices are weakly consolidating. On February 10, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The average profit was a loss of 52 yuan/ton, and the profit during off - peak electricity hours was 14 yuan/ton [1][2] - The finished products fluctuated slightly yesterday. Low downstream demand is the key factor dragging down steel prices. With the Spring Festival approaching, the spot market is entering the holiday rhythm, and there may be capital outflows before the festival, reducing market trading. The macro - environment has little impact on prices [2] Raw Materials - The raw materials market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [2]