Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall situation of the black building materials market is complex, affected by factors such as market demand, supply - demand relationship, and macro - expectations. Each variety has its own characteristics and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market showed an upward trend in the disk yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3067 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3219 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the inventory of building materials increased by 50.03% month - on - month to 572.97 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40.90% month - on - month to 315.35 million tons. The spot trading of steel is in the seasonal off - season [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory increases. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price movement range is limited, following the raw material price fluctuations. The production and sales of strip steel have improved this week, and the demand for sheet metal is expected to further improve, but the high intermediate inventory suppresses the price [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile trend, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price was strong yesterday. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 701,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 327.44%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73.86%. The global iron ore shipment volume was stable, with a total of 3.341 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline, with a total of 2.147 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Currently, the supply of iron ore is strong while the demand is weak, and the inventory has been at a high level for a long time, deepening the fundamental contradictions. Although steel mills have plans to resume production, the high supply and inventory still suppress the price. The high - price iron ore shipments remain high, and low prices can suppress the marginal supply of non - mainstream mines, gradually restoring the supply - demand balance. In the short term, the iron ore price still faces downward pressure [4]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures fluctuated yesterday. The port coke spot market was stable, and the domestic trade spot market had a general trading atmosphere. The coal mines had great pressure to sell, and the prices generally decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal remained at a high level, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was about 1000 - 1010 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the local supply has recovered quickly, the rigid demand of coking enterprises is stable, but they mainly consume raw material inventory, and the de - stocking pattern continues, with weak cost support. For coke, independent coking enterprises continue to accumulate inventory, which is at a medium - high level, and the total inventory has slightly increased, increasing the expectation of spot price cuts [7]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to show a volatile trend, and there are no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety [8]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the demand has recovered recently due to the resumption of work of many downstream enterprises. Most coal mines have queues of trucks for hauling, and the overall coal price has increased. In the port area, affected by the limited domestic resource transfer and the increase in upstream quotations, the ports are generally optimistic about the future, with high quotations. Some traders have a stronger willingness to sell for profit, but the actual transactions are few due to the high quotations. Currently, domestic resources are tight, and imports are also tense, providing short - term support for coal prices. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern is still volatile. Indonesian miners have few offers, and the market quotations and tender prices have increased significantly, but domestic tenders are cautious [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the demand has gradually recovered, leading to a strong coal price. Affected by the supply problems in the import market, the domestic coal price has continued to rise slightly. In the short term, the coal price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, but it will enter the off - season in March, and in the long - term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are provided [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate and operate in the later period [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Industry Situation**: The construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily. 11.54% of enterprises face poor fund availability, and 9.62% of enterprises report slow resumption progress. On March 2, Anshan launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for heavy pollution weather, and some steel enterprises in the area are implementing production reduction measures of up to 40% [2] - **Market Performance**: The finished steel fluctuated yesterday. The Middle East situation has limited impact on steel, and steel prices mainly follow their own fundamentals, especially the start - up of downstream demand. As the Two Sessions approach, the macro - level disturbances to prices have increased [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on in the later period [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, particularly focusing on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and its implications for various sectors, including oil, chemicals, and manufacturing industries in China and globally. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **PPI Recovery Expectations**: The PPI is expected to turn positive between April and June 2026, with a central estimate in May. If the situation in Iran escalates, this could occur as early as March to April 2026. The distinction between oil price-driven and endogenous recovery is crucial for market risk preferences [1][4][12]. 2. **Impact of Geopolitical Events**: The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran is noted as the largest since 1979, with potential implications for oil prices and market stability. The U.S. is unlikely to deploy ground troops, which may limit escalation [1][4][5]. 3. **Halo Sector Definition**: The "Halo" sector refers to heavy assets with low obsolescence risk, focusing on materials and consumables that are difficult to replace. This sector is expected to perform well during the PPI recovery phase [2]. 4. **Global Manufacturing and Pricing**: China's PPI recovery is seen as a significant indicator for global manufacturing and industrial pricing, suggesting a re-evaluation of industrial goods prices [3][21]. 5. **CPI Recovery Drivers**: The recovery of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is driven more by supply-demand rebalancing rather than solely by upstream price movements. This contrasts with mainstream views that emphasize upstream price influences [9]. 6. **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment is expected to improve in 2026 compared to 2025, with manufacturing investment being influenced by PPI trends. The report suggests that manufacturing investment typically lags behind PPI by about six months [10][11]. 7. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: Historical patterns indicate that nominal growth stabilizes before the real estate market does, particularly after significant adjustments in property prices [8]. 8. **Chemical Industry Analysis**: The chemical sector is divided into resource-based and chemical attributes, with a focus on how geopolitical events, like the Iran situation, could impact pricing and supply chains [22]. 9. **AI's Role in Chemical Production**: AI is expected to enhance efficiency in chemical production, particularly in formulation verification, but its impact on production efficiency is limited due to existing physical constraints [23]. 10. **Market Reactions to Geopolitical Risks**: Market participants may engage in event-driven trading based on the escalation of conflicts, particularly in oil and industrial materials. Observing simultaneous increases in gold, oil, and the dollar may indicate tightening liquidity [6]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Risks in Iran**: The potential for regime change in Iran is discussed, with significant challenges noted in achieving a stable transition. The risk of prolonged chaos is highlighted as a greater concern than rapid regime change [5]. 2. **PPI as a Key Variable**: In the complex macro environment of 2026, PPI is identified as a critical variable influencing the performance of the Chinese yuan and related assets, linking it to nominal growth and corporate profitability [7]. 3. **Global Supply Chain Implications**: The potential for disruptions in global supply chains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the energy sector, is emphasized, with specific attention to the implications for natural gas and chemical prices [31][33]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Resource Sectors**: The report suggests that resource sectors, particularly those with domestic supply advantages, should be closely monitored for investment opportunities amid geopolitical tensions [33]. 5. **Energy Price Dynamics**: The relationship between energy prices and broader economic conditions is explored, with expectations that energy price increases will eventually translate into higher electricity prices, impacting the renewable energy sector [47]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, industry-specific dynamics, and potential investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel industry, particularly for high-end steel products, with an expected export volume of approximately 150 million tons in 2026, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth rate [2][9]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel export structure is undergoing a transformation, shifting from low-end product exports to high-end products, driven by global demand expansion in the context of energy transition, AI industry growth, and geopolitical energy security [1]. - Companies are advised to focus on product value growth rather than just volume growth, leveraging domestic demand and industrial clustering advantages to support overseas investments and exports [1][4]. - The external demand for crude steel is increasing, with external demand accounting for nearly 30% of total demand, although external trade environment pressures remain significant [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Transformation - The steel industry is transitioning from a focus on low-end exports to high-end products, with significant opportunities arising from global trends such as energy transition and AI [1][4]. - The case of electrical steel illustrates how a large domestic market can enhance supply-side capabilities, enabling a shift from import reliance to reverse exports [5][6]. Export Dynamics - The report highlights two contrasting trends in steel exports: direct low-end exports and indirect high-end exports, with the former facing significant challenges due to geopolitical factors and market saturation [3][7]. - The expected export volume for 2026 is projected at 150 million tons, supported by short-term factors like easing US-China trade tensions and long-term factors such as the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [2][9]. Market Opportunities - High-end steel products are expected to see increased global demand driven by infrastructure needs in electric vehicles, wind power, and energy security projects [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on product value and collaborating with downstream manufacturing sectors to enhance export capabilities [4][10]. Profitability and Competition - The profitability landscape within the steel industry is shifting, with a higher percentage of companies expected to remain profitable compared to previous years, although internal profitability disparities are increasing [7][12]. - Direct export pressures are compounded by domestic policy constraints aimed at limiting low-end steel exports, alongside rising global competition and trade risks [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating a potential improvement in profitability and a favorable supply-demand balance for leading companies [4][20]. Core Insights - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of the "Regulatory and Leading Enterprises" classification, which aims to optimize the industry structure and enhance competitiveness [4][12]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has published a list of 230 enterprises that meet the new regulatory conditions, including 35 leading enterprises, which will benefit from preferential policies and financing opportunities [4][11]. - The report highlights significant price increases in various steel sub-sectors, with notable gains in plate and special steel segments, indicating a robust market performance [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and digital transformation in the steel industry, with companies like Fangda Special Steel and Zhangxuan Technology implementing smart systems to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [14][16][17]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The steel sub-sectors, including plates, special steels, and pipes, saw price increases of 12.77%, 11.42%, and 4.44% respectively for the week ending March 1, 2026 [6][7]. - Year-to-date, special steel, plate, and pipe sectors have increased by 17.23%, 16.43%, and 15.27% respectively [6][7]. Important Industry Events - The first batch of enterprises meeting the 2025 regulatory conditions was announced, which includes 230 companies categorized into regulatory and leading enterprises [11][12]. - During the Two Sessions, some steel companies were instructed to reduce furnace loads by 30% to improve air quality [13]. Key Company Announcements - Notable transactions and shareholder meetings were reported for companies such as Baogang Group and Chongqing Steel, indicating active corporate governance and market engagement [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with stable dividends, high technical barriers, and those in the upstream resource sector, suggesting specific companies for potential investment [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][7][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal shows a weak trend. The May contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil closed at 3067 and 3219 yuan per ton respectively. The Iran-US war affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, leading to an expected decline in steel export volume and suppressing the performance of the futures market. The upcoming Two Sessions may interfere with the demand-side expectations. Iron ore production is rising, the output of five major steel products is stable at a low level, and inventory is seasonally accumulating, but the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is relatively loose, and raw material prices are weak, dragging down steel prices. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply-demand outlook is not strong. Pay attention to the impact of variables on supply-demand expectations. Rebar and hot-rolled coil should focus on the support levels around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated. The Iran-US conflict has caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices, a climb in global shipping freight, and local shipping disruptions. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly this period, and the cumulative global iron ore shipment has increased by nearly 30 million tons since the beginning of the year. The arrival volume has been declining, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in 47 ports is about 27 million tons, so supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, iron ore production has rebounded, but production resumption during the Two Sessions may be affected, and the recovery of terminal demand needs to be verified. The inventory level of finished products is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking slope after the peak. In terms of inventory, steel mills mainly consumed raw ore inventory during the holiday, resulting in a significant decline in steel mill inventory and a slight increase in port inventory. If the daily average iron ore production in March is 2.35 million tons, there will still be a slight inventory accumulation pressure, but the accumulation speed will narrow compared to the previous period. In the short term, supply pressure still suppresses ore prices, but the inventory contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and there is also resistance to further decline in ore prices. Wait for the verification of terminal demand and policy expectations before the Two Sessions. In addition, pay attention to the changes in non-mainstream shipments. Short-term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and short positions are still considered after rebounds [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The steel mills accepted the first round of coke price increase before the holiday and are planning to lower the price after the holiday, while the port price remained stable. On the supply side, coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit has recovered to near the break-even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production enterprises' operation increased slightly following the increase in iron ore production. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level after the holiday, steel prices oscillated weakly, and the restocking demand was weak. In terms of inventory, both ports and steel mills reduced inventory, while coke production enterprises increased inventory, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are basically balanced. In terms of strategy, the short-term coke price is stable. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, there are certain policy expectations. The Iran-US conflict has driven up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coking coal and coke futures, which is slightly positive for the black metal market but has limited impact. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750 [7] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated. In the spot market, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. After the holiday, the restocking demand weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory. However, the thermal coal market continued to rise, and different coal types showed different trends. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily output will gradually increase in the future. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and customs clearance resumed on the 23rd, with 1300 vehicles cleared on that day. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level, the coking profit was repaired, and the operation was stable with a slight increase. After the Spring Festival, the downstream restocking demand was limited. In terms of inventory, coal mines accumulated inventory, while coke production enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports all reduced inventory, and the overall inventory decreased seasonally. In terms of strategy, the shortage of Indonesian coal has caused the domestic thermal coal price to rise, and the market expects that it will support the coking coal price. The Iran-US conflict has driven up global energy prices, and the futures market rebounded. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. Overseas factors are volatile, and policy expectations before the Two Sessions are strengthening. Attention should be paid to whether ferrosilicon exports will be affected. Fundamentally, after the holiday, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. Most production areas' output was basically the same as last week. There are expectations of production resumption in Ningxia and maintenance in Shaanxi, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of non-steel demand, there are positive factors for magnesium alloys, and some ferrous alloy stocks have reached the daily limit. Currently, the daily output of metallic magnesium is at a relatively high level, and it decreased slightly due to factory maintenance during the holiday. Factories are currently producing according to orders, and downstream demand is waiting to recover. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke decreased slightly. Currently, Ningxia has the best production profit, while other production areas have varying degrees of losses. Looking forward, the short-term supply and demand of ferrosilicon are tight. The current futures price has rebounded to near the export cost and will face pressure. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8] - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese main contract continued to rise in a "V" shape. Affected by spot news, it weakened during the session and then strengthened again. The Iran-US geopolitical situation has led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the shipping freight of manganese ore from South Africa, Gabon, and Brazil to China has increased by 3 - 4 US dollars per ton. Fundamentally, the supply of ferromanganese increased slightly month-on-month, and the absolute value of weekly output is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The output in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased slightly, and the output in Guangxi increased month-on-month due to the electricity price discount during the holiday, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the policy will continue after the holiday. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse receipt level is relatively low, and the total inventory is neutral. In terms of cost, the price of manganese ore is firm, and the new round of foreign quotes has been raised. There is an expectation of downstream restocking, and the supply-demand pattern continues to strengthen. Last week, the manganese ore port inventory increased significantly due to the decline in port clearance during the holiday and the increase in arrivals. Attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking situation. In general, the short-term price driver of ferromanganese comes from manganese ore. The current futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the supply and demand situation restricts the price increase space. Pay attention to the production resumption situation of ferromanganese. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side, pay attention to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou, or consider a 5 - 9 positive spread [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed different changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of the 10 - contract increased by 5 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2910 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Output**: The daily average iron ore production increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a 1.0% decrease. The rebar output decreased by 5.3 to 165.1 tons, a 3.1% decrease [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 tons, a 7.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6 tons, an 11.8% increase. The hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2 tons, a 4.2% increase [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 to 2.2 tons, a 20.6% decrease. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 tons, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 tons, an 18.5% decrease. The apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased by 21.6 to 268.4 tons, an 8.8% increase [1] Iron Ore Industry - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different changes. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of low - grade powder increased by 6.5 to 854.4 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 yuan/ton, a 5.3% decrease [4] - **Spot Prices and Price Indices**: The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Karara powder increased by 6.0 to 886.0 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipment volume increased, and the national monthly import volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 tons, a 0.6% increase [4] - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 tons, a 15.0% decrease. The national pig iron monthly output decreased by 162.4 to 6072.2 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7 tons, a 2.4% decrease [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 tons, a 0.9% increase. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 tons, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0 days, a 23.3% decrease [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of coke and their contracts showed different changes. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1681 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coke increased by 17 to 1652 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase [7] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of coking coal and their contracts also changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged at 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coking coal increased by 1 to 1094 yuan/ton, a 0.0% increase [7] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 144.1 to 840.4 tons, a 17.1% decrease. The clean coal output decreased by 74.4 to 423.9 tons, a 17.5% decrease [7] - **Demand**: The iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 63.7 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 tons, a 0.3% decrease [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.5 to 107.8 tons, a 7.5% increase. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.5 to 675.1 tons, a 2.0% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 3.1 to 124.1 tons, a 2.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 tons, a 7.4% decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 27.9 to 792.5 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The port inventory increased by 13.6 to 272.0 tons, a 5.2% increase [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Futures and Spot**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts increased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 38 to 5764 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase. The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 to 5330 yuan/ton, a 0.9% increase [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17.2 to 6019.6 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 32.8 to - 269.6 yuan/ton, a 10.8% increase. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5500 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 to 28.3 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.4 to 19.7 tons, a 1.8% increase [8] - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0 tons, a 1.3% decrease. The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The blast furnace operation rate increased by 0.1 to 80.2%, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to have little fluctuation during the Two Sessions and mainly fluctuate in the short term. The support level of rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3100. The support level of hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3300. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar may further converge. It is recommended to go long on hot-rolled coil and short on rebar and consider entering the market at a low price. The recommended take-profit is above 200 [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coil closed down at night on Monday [1] Important Information - On March 2, Anshan City launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for emergency response to heavy pollution weather. Currently, steel enterprises in Anshan are implementing production suspension and restriction measures, and some steel enterprises are implementing a 40% production cut [1] - According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, 95% of the coal-fired power generation capacity, 90% of the steel production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity in the country have completed ultra-low emission transformation [1] - On March 2, Baowu Group's Central and Southern Steel signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Pingmei Shenma Group. The two sides said they will actively promote the strategic deployment established by the group's senior management to tilt high-quality resources towards high-quality enterprises to achieve efficient resource allocation and complementary advantages [1] Market Logic - The situation in Iran has a limited direct impact on China's steel exports but a significant indirect impact. The short-term monthly impact on exports is about 1.1624 million tons. Last week, the production of both rebar and hot-rolled coil decreased, the inventory continued to rise, and the apparent demand decreased, which was in line with expectations. The construction industry downstream is short of funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the steel price will not fluctuate much during the Two Sessions and will mainly fluctuate in the short term. The support level of rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3100. The support level of hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3300. Based on the closing price, the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar converged to 148 at the night session close. The spread may further converge. It is recommended to go long on hot-rolled coil and short on rebar and consider entering the market at a low price. The recommended take-profit is above 200 [1]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report provides the spot prices of various types of steel in different regions from February 24 to March 2, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, Lecong for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils [1] Production and Inventory - Not provided in the content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - system commodities are currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The output and demand are at a low level, and the inventory is increasing rapidly from a low level. It is expected that downstream demand will gradually start after the Lantern Festival, and the market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Impact**: The attack between the US, Israel and Iran on Saturday led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday, but it had limited impact on black - system commodities [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at the lowest level of the year [2] - **Technical Analysis**: After a sharp rebound, the futures price fell back, indicating that the upper resistance is still large. Due to the current low valuation, the downward space may be limited [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3067 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3219 yuan/ton. The spot price of threaded steel (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3190 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3240 yuan/ton [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 165.10 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output is 309.61 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 1295.75 tons, the social inventory of threaded steel is 567.76 tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil is 357.37 tons [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties is 662.5 tons, the apparent demand of threaded steel social inventory is 80.54 tons, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil social inventory is 291.31 tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Last week, the output of the five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 28,000 tons month - on - month to 2.334 million tons [4] - **Supply**: With the improvement of the weather, the shipment has gradually recovered to a high level. The arrival volume has decreased, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rebound, the futures price continued to fall back, and the medium - term downward trend is still continuing [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 754.5 yuan/dry ton, and the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.26 US dollars/dry ton [4] - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 16.674 million tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 6.372 million tons [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 170.9196 million tons, and the port trade ore inventory is 117.1165 million tons [4] 3.3 Industry News - On March 2, 2026, at 10:00, Anshan City launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for heavy pollution weather emergency response. Currently, steel enterprises in Anshan are implementing production suspension and restriction measures, and some steel enterprises are implementing a 40% production reduction [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 22.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 21.469 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports was 10.328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,000 tons [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 33.407 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The Australian shipment was 19.484 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 623,000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38 million tons. The Brazilian shipment was 7.422 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397,000 tons [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [10]. - In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy will gradually raise the price center of nickel ore, and nickel prices are expected to slowly rise in a volatile manner. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and inventories continue to increase slightly. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [19]. - In the long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of volatility and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [38][44]. - The supply of the float glass market remains stable, while the demand is weak. The industry inventory has risen significantly, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The spot market of soda ash is still full of wait - and - see sentiment, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern [40][41]. - The prices of rubber RU and NR are expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the strong trend of the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [55]. - The current oil price has already priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. It is recommended to adopt a mid - term layout strategy but wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail - risks [57]. - The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips in the medium - term [59]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and combined with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate [61]. - After the Saudi refinery closure and the attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of cooling. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of the valuation is narrowing. It is necessary to wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. - The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, and the demand is under pressure. The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor [65]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. In the short term, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and inventory reduction. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [68]. - As the expectation of PTA maintenance decreases, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The processing fee of PTA has fallen back, and there is room for the valuation to rise in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX and crude oil [70]. - The PX load remains high, and the overall load of downstream PTA is relatively low, resulting in a short - term inventory accumulation pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reduction cycle. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [72]. - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the spot price of polyethylene has risen. The downward space for PE valuation still exists, and the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the overall start - up rate is expected to bottom out and rebound [74]. - The cost of polypropylene is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - dominated downward trend to the production mismatch. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [76]. - After the Spring Festival, the slaughter scale of pigs is large, and the average trading weight is high, indicating limited inventory clearance. The short - term rebound of the spot price is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish attitude towards the near - term contract. The far - term contract is supported by capacity reduction and seasonal factors, but the upside space is also limited [79]. - The inventory of laying hens is large, but the egg price after the Spring Festival is higher than expected, and the inventory has not significantly accumulated. However, the increase in stocking behaviors may weaken the medium - term upward potential of egg prices, and it is necessary to pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - term contract [81]. - Due to the market rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the soybean meal price has risen significantly. The export sales of US soybeans have improved, and the import cost has increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [84]. - Affected by the weekend geopolitical crisis, the short - term rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. The inventory of vegetable oils in China and India at the end of January has further decreased, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February has weakened the oil prices. It is advisable to wait for the oil prices to stabilize at a low level and then consider buying [86]. - The decline in India's sugar production in the first half of February and the increase in Thailand's production offset each other. The raw sugar price has fallen to a historical low and is continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in the new Brazilian sugar - cane season after April. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been alleviated, and there may be a rebound. It is advisable to participate in long - positions in small amounts on dips [89]. - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased positions and prices significantly, speculating in advance on the peak season in March. It is necessary to focus on the downstream start - up situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for the Zhengzhou cotton price to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips [91]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Large - scale Fund has made its first investment in embodied intelligence, and Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of 2.5 billion yuan; the European natural gas price has risen by 42%, reaching the largest increase since March 2022, and Qatar Energy Company will stop the production of liquefied natural gas; MiniMax's total revenue in 2025 reached 79.038 million US dollars, with 73% of the revenue coming from the international market, and the gross profit margin increased to 25.4%, exceeding market expectations; Deutsche Telekom has cooperated with Starlink to expand the mobile network coverage [2]. - **Strategy View**: Amid the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 112.740, 108.530, 106.080, and 102.464 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01%. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz; the final value of France's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.1, higher than the expected 49.9; the VIX index rose to 25.24 points on March 2, reaching the highest level since November last year. The central bank conducted 1.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net investment of 1.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the year - on - year CPI in January was lower than expected, while the PPI improved both year - on - year and month - on - month. The potential suppression of inflation on the bond market still exists. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, and the credit at the beginning of the year was weak. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.14% to 1,184.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 22,939.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 1.80% to 5,342.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.83% to 89.72 US dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.05%, and the US dollar index was 98.55. After the US - Israel joint military strike on Iran, the situation has continued to escalate, increasing the tail - risk in the Middle East. The demand for safe - haven assets has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. The US ISM - PMI data in February 2026 was 52.4, higher than market expectations, and the overall was still in the expansion range. The price index has risen significantly, while the employment market is still weak [9]. - **Strategy View**: After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai gold main contract being 1,150 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver main contract being 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of gold and crude oil have risen, while copper prices have risen and then fallen. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.59% to 13,084 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,280 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 28,000 tons. The spot discount of copper in the East China region has narrowed, while that in the Guangdong region has widened. The domestic copper spot import loss is about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has slightly narrowed [12]. - **Strategy View**: Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, although risk appetite has been affected, the key mineral resource attribute of copper has been strengthened, and there is a risk of supply interruption, so copper prices still have strong support. The increase in crude oil prices has reduced the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term. Domestically, with the arrival of the Two Sessions and the release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real estate market, there is support in terms of sentiment. The TC of the copper industry is running at a low level, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. As the downstream start - up rate further increases, the global copper inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper contract is 12,950 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The tense situation in the Middle East has increased concerns about supply, driving up aluminum prices. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.38% to 3,185 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,195 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 29,000 tons to 693,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 295,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by more than 70,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 464,000 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has increased to a high level, but with the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the inventory is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The US - Israel military action against Iran has increased the risk of aluminum supply in the Middle East, and the electrolytic aluminum plant in Mozambique under South32 is still expected to be shut down for maintenance in March. Coupled with the high spot premium of aluminum in North America and the relatively low LME inventory, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,140 - 3,240 US dollars/ton [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.60% to 24,874 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 189,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc price fell 24.5 US dollars to 3,355.5 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 226,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,370 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 70,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,400 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased by 31,600 tons to 211,900 tons on March 2 [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the conflict in Iran on zinc ore supply is relatively small, but market concerns about trade disruptions and energy price increases may briefly push up zinc prices from the sentiment side [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.28% to 16,893 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 112,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead price fell 8.5 US dollars to 1,978 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 171,200 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,900 tons to 67,100 tons on March 2 [18]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the lead ore inventory has increased slightly, the TC of lead concentrate has increased slightly, and the inventory of recycled raw materials has decreased marginally. The start - up rate of smelters has declined, and the start -