投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 高位出分歧，锂价大幅回落 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-2 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：西北减产落地，需求进入淡季 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产7.36 万吨，环比-3.48%；全国开炉210 台，环比-7台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.10 万吨，环比-0.04%，开炉数环比不变。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比不变。四川地区周产 0万吨。 | | | | （3）12月产量39.71万吨，环比-1.15%，同比+19.75%；1月排产3 ...

Group 1 - New Special Energy (01799) experienced a decline of over 8%, currently trading down 6.83% at HKD 7.09, with a transaction volume of HKD 19.8835 million [1] - TrendForce reported that the polysilicon industry inventory is at a high level, exceeding 510,000 tons and continuing in a phase of accumulation [1] - Dongwu Securities indicated that due to the upcoming Spring Festival and a surge in silver prices, there has been limited improvement in production scheduling across the industry chain, leading to weak demand for polysilicon procurement and a likelihood of overall price stability [1]

智通财经APP获悉，新特能源(01799)再跌超8%，截至发稿，跌6.83%，报7.09港元，成交额1988.35万港 元。 消息面上，TrendForce此前发布报告称，多晶硅行业库存处于高位，总量已突破51万吨并继续处于累库 阶段。东吴证券指出，对于短期硅料价格走势，春节临近、银价暴涨导致的产业链排产未有太大起色， 传导至硅料采购需求有限，硅料价格整体将弱势维稳的可能性较大。 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期新上任的美联储主席立场超预期，叠加上伊朗问题缓和，早已超买和超高的 VIX | | | 等待降波 | 指数情绪被浇灭，金银飞流直下三千尺。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在， | | ★ | | 央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。本周关注调整幅度 | | 白银 | | 此前提示白银交易太过于拥挤，这一天回来，近日调整还是惨烈。尽管长期理由仍 | | ★★ | 等待企稳 | 然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利），但是短期市场会沉浸 在悲观情绪中，保持关注。 | | | | 特朗普提名沃什继任美联储主席，市场担心其缩表+降息主张，明鸽实鹰，市场流动 | | 铜 | | 性预期收缩，贵金属创纪录暴跌带崩有色，叠加长假临近，铜承压回落，建议铜多 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 单移动止盈落袋，不要盲目追涨杀跌，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 美联储新主席提名人沃什或明鸽实鹰，宏观和板块情绪骤冷，贵金属暴跌带崩有色， | | | 反弹承压 ...

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周05合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8730元/吨,周五收盘价为8850元/吨，周涨幅为1.37%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比减少2.35%。本周样本企业产量为44140万吨,环 比持平;其中云南样本企业开工率为20.36%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为0%,环比本周持续停产 新疆样本企业开工率为86.22%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为83%,环比持平。预计本月开工率为 61%,较上月开工率64.59%减少3.59个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%,需求持续低迷。具 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The price of polysilicon futures in February is expected to be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton. The main reasons are the high inventory of polysilicon, the pressure on terminal demand caused by the increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals, and the cancellation of joint production cuts, sales restrictions, and price increases under the anti - involution policy [5][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The significant increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals has pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 87,400 tons. The output of polysilicon in February is expected to be about 82,000 tons, and although there is a slight inventory reduction, the high inventory of over 330,000 tons still exerts pressure on the spot price [4][40]. - **Trading Logic**: After the座谈会 on January 28, the anti - involution policy will focus more on the market and legal aspects. The optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers may be to refer to their full costs. The annual operating rate of enterprises is expected to be around 30% - 50%, with a corresponding industry cost range of (42,000, 50,000) yuan/ton. The spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage, recommend positive arbitrage; for options, no recommendation is provided [7]. 2. Fundamental Situation - **Market Review**: In January, the polysilicon futures price dropped significantly after being affected by the anti - monopoly risk reminder and the anti - involution policy, and then stabilized with a weakening trend at the end of the month. The main contract once fell to around 48,000 yuan/ton and then to the 49,000 yuan/ton level [9]. - **Demand**: The increase in the prices of non - ferrous metals has significantly pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of batteries and components in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, may lead to a rush to export in the first quarter, but the sharp increase in costs has eroded the preferential price space [14][18]. - **Supply**: The production schedule of polysilicon in February is expected to be reduced. The total domestic output in February is estimated to be 81,600 tons, with only Tongwei Co., Ltd. having a reduced output compared to January [34]. - **Inventory**: The high - inventory pattern of polysilicon remains unchanged. In January, the inventory increased on paper, and as of January 23, the inventory of polysilicon enterprises reached 330,000 - 340,000 tons, while the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises decreased to about 150,000 tons. The inventory of the delivery warehouse increased to 24,200 tons. The possible restocking by downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival and the increased willingness to sell by upstream enterprises due to inventory pressure will be negative for the spot price [36]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Fundamental Outlook**: The cost of batteries and components has increased significantly, the production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable, the output of polysilicon in February is about 82,000 tons, and the high - inventory pressure still exists, putting pressure on the spot price [40]. - **Trading Logic Analysis**: The anti - involution policy focuses on the market and legal aspects, the optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers is to refer to full costs, the annual operating rate of enterprises is around 30% - 50%, the spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage and options, no recommendations are provided [41].

Group 1 - Daqo Energy's stock price decreased by 0.32% on January 29, with a trading volume of 438 million yuan. The financing buy amount was 29.40 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 45.78 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of -16.37 million yuan. The total financing and securities balance reached 608 million yuan as of January 29 [1] - The financing balance of Daqo Energy is 607 million yuan, accounting for 1.12% of the circulating market value, which is below the 50th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low position [1] - On the same day, Daqo Energy had a securities lending repayment of 1,300 shares and a securities lending sell of 837 shares, with a selling amount of 21,100 yuan. The securities lending balance was 975,800 yuan, which is below the 20th percentile level over the past year, also indicating a low position [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, Daqo Energy had 40,000 shareholders, an increase of 14.07% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person were 53,635, an increase of 240.25% [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Daqo Energy reported operating revenue of 3.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.36% [2] - Daqo Energy has distributed a total of 9.743 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 8.588 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included E Fund's SSE STAR 50 ETF, which held 23.2647 million shares, a decrease of 3.3844 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders also saw reductions in their holdings [2]

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：刚需采买支撑，盘面宽幅震荡格局 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游减产，关注库存变动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪积极，构筑盘面底部支撑 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 147,470 | 3,100 | 4,970 | 720 | 15,080 | 25,930 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,585 | 120 | -65 | 170 | 1,495 | 1,780 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（ ...

证券日报网讯1月29日，特变电工（600089）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年第六次临 时股东大会审议通过了《公司开展套期保值及远期外汇交易业务的议案》，套期保值业务品种包含多晶 硅。公司会根据市场行情、自身经营实际情况做好风险评估，科学开展多晶硅套期保值业务。 ...