Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Palm oil lacks driving forces and attention should be paid to short - term support [2]. - For soybean oil, US soybeans have stabilized and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly returning [2]. - Both soybean meal and soybean are affected by tariff sentiment and will fluctuate [2]. - Corn will move in a volatile manner [2]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly [2]. - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - Eggs are in an adjustment phase [2]. - For live pigs, the spot contradictions are gradually being released, and a large reverse spread strategy is recommended [2]. - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,590 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - session closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with a 0.47% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,138 yuan/ton with a 0.37% change, and night - session closing price was 8,156 yuan/ton with a 0.22% change [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The tariff on US imports will be adjusted, and Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% to 2 million tons. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low. Affin Hwang IB expects palm oil prices to recover in Q1 2026 [5][7][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 4,123 yuan/ton (+47, + 1.15%), and night - session closing price was 4,139 yuan/ton (+62, + 1.52%). DCE soybean meal's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 3,073 yuan/ton (+45, + 1.49%), and night - session closing price was 3,076 yuan/ton (+37, + 1.22%) [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China will adjust the tariff on US products, and the market's short - term sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain cautious [12][14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,134 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,139 yuan/ton (+0.23%) at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2,162 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,168 yuan/ton (+0.28%) at night [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions have different performance, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley are also provided [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.12 cents/pound (-0.1), the mainstream spot price was 5,680 yuan/ton (-10), and the futures main - contract price was 5,441 yuan/ton (-40) [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and its exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,615 yuan/ton (0.59%) during the day and 13,630 yuan/ton (0.11%) at night. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,820 yuan/ton (0.13%) during the day and 19,890 yuan/ton (0.35%) at night [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of low - basis cotton is good, and the price of pure - cotton yarn is stable. The performance of the Xinjiang and inland markets is different [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2512 was 3,217 yuan/500 kg (1.93%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,509 yuan/500 kg (1.23%) [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No specific macro and industry news is provided. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton (-100), the Sichuan spot price was 11,500 yuan/ton (-150), and the Guangdong spot price was 12,560 yuan/ton (-200). The price of live pigs 2601 was 11,945 yuan/ton (260) [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of PK601 was 7,802 yuan/ton (-0.10%), and the price of PK603 was 7,848 yuan/ton (-0.18%) [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The peanut market in different regions has different performance, with some regions having stable prices and some having weak prices [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market lacks driving forces, and short - term support levels should be monitored. The soybean oil market is stabilizing, and the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil is gradually narrowing [1]. - After the recent price decline due to increased production, the price of crude palm oil may recover in the first quarter of 2026, supported by the seasonal low - production period. Affin Hwang IB estimates the average price of crude palm oil to be between 4,200 - 4,350 ringgit per ton in 2025 and 4,350 - 4,450 ringgit per ton in 2026 [5]. - The market sentiment has improved in the short term, but the fundamentals remain cautious. The continued rebound of soybean prices depends on China's actual procurement volume and the export rhythm of US soybeans [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,590 yuan/ton (down 0.30% during the day session) and 8,630 yuan/ton (up 0.47% during the night session); the soybean oil main contract was 8,138 yuan/ton (up 0.37% during the day session) and 8,156 yuan/ton (up 0.22% during the night session); the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,407 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day session) and 9,438 yuan/ton (up 0.33% during the night session). The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,109 ringgit/ton (down 0.84% during the day session) and 4,122 ringgit/ton (up 0.34% during the night session), and the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 49.71 cents/pound (up 0.36%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 546,167 lots (a decrease of 10,434 lots), and the open interest was 423,090 lots (an increase of 17,113 lots); the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 248,485 lots (a decrease of 33,875 lots) and an open interest of 482,137 lots (an increase of 1,482 lots); the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 142,702 lots (a decrease of 20,827 lots) and an open interest of 214,565 lots (an increase of 1,525 lots) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,480 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton); the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton); the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 US dollars/ton (an increase of 5 US dollars/ton) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 342 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 443 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 817 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 452 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was - 106 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will be suspended for another year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [2][6]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high. The estimated production for the 2025/26 season is 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 14.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of only 0.3% [4]. - India's palm oil imports in October 2025 dropped to a five - year low due to increased domestic inventory, weak demand in the food industry, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds. The total import volume, including crude and refined palm oil, was 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September [4]. - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.2%. Analysts expect the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report to show that the net export sales volume of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season in the week ending October 30, 2025, will be between 400,000 and 2 million tons. Traders estimated that speculative funds net - bought 8,500 lots of soybeans on Wednesday [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the import cost is expected to fluctuate. Short - term soybean meal prices may rise with import costs, and the profit margin for oil extraction may recover, but in the medium term, the global soybean supply is expected to be abundant, and a strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [2][3]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high production in Indonesia does not continue, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as oscillating weakly, and a long - position strategy can be considered when there are signs of production decline [5][6][7]. - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand is weak this year, the downstream industry chain's operating rate has declined compared to the same period in previous years, and there is a large selling - hedging pressure due to a bumper harvest in the new season. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12][13]. - For eggs, due to low replenishment and high culling, there is an expectation that the inventory will peak and decline. Coupled with the increasing inventory - hoarding sentiment after the temperature drops, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. With subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation pattern in the short term, and the upper pressure should be monitored in the medium term [15][18]. - For pigs, the supply is sufficient, and the spot price increase is less than expected. The futures market has already priced in the future supply pressure. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose as China's reduction of tariffs on US soybeans stimulated demand, while the Brazilian soybean premium declined slightly. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell by 10 yuan, with the price in East China at 2980 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of soybean meal was average, but the delivery was good, and the oil mill operating rate was 52.4%, up from the previous day. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.0964 million tons this week, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. As of October 30, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall. China announced an adjustment to the import tariff on US goods, and the import tax rate for US soybeans is expected to be 13% from November 10, still higher than that of Brazil, so there is still uncertainty about future purchases of US soybeans [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The import cost of soybeans is expected to fluctuate. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on the crushing profit. However, as it enters the inventory - reduction season, there is some support. It is expected that soybean meal prices will rise in the short term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, which will stimulate purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of abundant global soybean supply remains unchanged, and a strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [3]. Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55%. A survey on Wednesday estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season to be 19.2 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. Driven by the strong recovery of production in East Malaysia and more working days in the month, production reached a peak in October. It is expected that the seasonal high production will gradually decrease as the industry enters the low - production period in early 2026. Domestic oil prices continued to decline on Wednesday. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by more than 10%. Palm oil prices are still constrained by the high production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The higher - than - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current inventory accumulation situation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as oscillating weakly, and a long - position strategy can be considered when there are signs of production decline [6][7]. Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures declined slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the报价 of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5650 - 5690 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the报价 of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5530 - 5590 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream报价 range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with mixed changes from the previous day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 209 yuan/ton. Brazil's Conab estimated that the sugar cane production in the central - southern region in the 2025/26 season would be 607.38 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 609.76 million tons, while the sugar production is expected to be 41.34 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 40.64 million tons. India's ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) would be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production after deducting 3.4 million tons for ethanol production is expected to be 30.95 million tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, due to strengthened import controls on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. Since August this year, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugar - cane - to - sugar conversion, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 13615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1210 yuan/ton. As of the week ending October 31, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. On November 4, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.27 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.01 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - Fundamentally, the demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. There is a large selling - hedging pressure due to a bumper harvest in the new season. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [13]. Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising yesterday. The average price in the main production areas rose slightly to 2.85 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao rose 0.07 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, and farmers sold their eggs as usual. The market demand was okay, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream traders increased slightly. Egg prices may be stable or rise today [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to low replenishment and high culling, there is an expectation that the inventory will peak and decline. Coupled with the increasing inventory - hoarding sentiment after the temperature drops, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. With subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation pattern in the short term, and the upper pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18]. Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.16 yuan to 11.88 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.2 yuan to 11.47 yuan/kg. The support from secondary fattening decreased, and the pigs that were previously held back for fattening are gradually being sold. The supply remains sufficient, the arrival of goods downstream has increased, and most white - striped pork prices have declined, which is negative for live - pig prices. It is expected that farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices today, while they will be more willing to sell at high prices, and the price may be stable or decline [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the difficulty in selling white - striped pork, the increase in spot prices at the end of the month was less than expected. From the perspective of the number of pens of small - scale farmers and the frozen - product storage rate, the current inventory is significantly postponed, and there is a suspicion of lack of follow - up power under the continuous high - supply pressure. The futures market has already priced in the future supply pressure, and its trend is independent of the spot market. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21].

Core Insights - Chicago futures market saw a rise in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on November 5, with corn at $4.35 per bushel, wheat at $5.55, and soybean at $11.34, reflecting increases of 0.87%, 0.82%, and 1.14% respectively [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The most actively traded December corn contract rose by 3.75 cents, while the December wheat contract increased by 4.5 cents, and the January 2026 soybean contract gained 12.75 cents [1] - Trading volume in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for agricultural products was light due to the USDA "shutdown," leaving uncertainty regarding China's wheat bookings [1] Group 2: Export Expectations - Global soybean demand outside of China is expected to be fully met by Brazil, leading to a pessimistic outlook for U.S. soybean exports, projected at 1.5 billion bushels or less [1] Group 3: Ethanol Production - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that ethanol production reached 330 million gallons last week, an increase of 9 million gallons from the previous week, marking a historical high [1] - Ethanol inventory stood at 962 million gallons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] Group 4: Weather Conditions - Weather forecasts indicate that Brazil will experience rain and thunderstorms across all crop-growing regions in the next two weeks, while Argentina will have rain until November 7, followed by clear weather favorable for wheat harvesting and soybean planting [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and policy factors. Overall, it presents a cautious attitude towards the short - term market of these commodities, with many recommendations to wait and see [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. Domestic spot trading was average, downstream pure cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market was dull. China may reduce additional tariffs on US cotton imports, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly, and there are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price continued to correct. The price of high - quality apples was stable, while that of low - quality apples was weak. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is uncertainty in the initial cold - storage inventory, and the high price and poor quality of apples may lead to slow inventory removal. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] Rubber (20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - Today, RU&NR fluctuated weakly, and BR first declined and then rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China will enter the low - yield period. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is easing, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices were stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream imported pulp inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Timber - The futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and the domestic spot price was weak. Traders' import willingness decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. The export volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is relatively loose in supply and demand, but the US market shows strong performance due to increased exports. Brazilian soybean prices may face pressure in the medium - term. Domestic soybean meal is strong due to tariff adjustments, and rapeseed meal is also strong influenced by soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to shrink. [4][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market continues to be strong, and the Brazilian price is falling with sufficient supply. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are both strong. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the monthly spreads of both are strong. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the international market, the US soybean has limited upside potential without a significant yield reduction. Brazil's soybean supply is abundant, and its price may face pressure. Argentina's soybean export and processing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited. [4] - In the domestic market, the supply and demand of soybean meal are relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply is uncertain. [5] 3.3 Macroeconomic Impact - Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals, and the US soybean market has risen. However, the impact on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamentals. [6] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean has limited upside space without a large - scale yield decline. Brazilian soybean prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean meal is strong with price support, and rapeseed meal is also strong but has limited upside space. The monthly spreads of both are strong but have limited further upside potential. [7] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short the 05 contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Sell wide straddles. [8][9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides forecasts on the supply and demand of key agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes are given for various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4139.00 with a previous day's increase of 0.70% and an overnight decrease of 0.12% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are provided for multiple currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 100.20 with a 0.34% increase [1]. 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8720 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis [3]. - CNF升贴水 and CNF报价 for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF升贴水 for Brazilian soybeans is 235 cents per bushel and the CNF报价 is 503 dollars per ton [5]. 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: Rainy weather has returned to central Brazil, which is beneficial for soybean crops. Different states in Brazil have different weather conditions and temperature trends [6]. - **国际供需** - MPOB月报前瞻: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise 3.5% to 2440000 tons in October, with production reaching 1940000 tons (up 5.6% from the previous month) and exports increasing 3.8% to 1480000 tons [8]. - StoneX: Reduced the US 2025 soybean yield forecast from 53.9 to 53.6 bushels per acre, and the production forecast to 4.303 billion bushels [8]. - S&P Global Commodity Insights: Predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield at 53.0 bushels per acre and production at 4.260 billion bushels [8]. - StoneX: Kept the forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests largely unchanged, with a 0.1% increase in the 2025/26 soybean production forecast [9]. - Imea: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - Deral: The soybean planting area in Parana state reached 79% of the expected area, with 93% of the evaluated area having good growth [9]. - EU: As of November 2, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports were 960000 tons, 3.81 million tons, 6.11 million tons, and 1.26 million tons respectively, all lower than the previous year [10][11]. - Kazakhstan: Exports of livestock feed meal in September 2025 reached a record high of 305000 tons, 2.5 times the previous year [11]. - Baltic Dry Index: Rose 13 points or 0.7% to 1958 points due to increased demand for Capesize vessels [11]. - **国内供需** - On November 4, soybean oil and palm oil total sales were 23200 tons, a 121% increase from the previous day [13]. - On November 4, the total soybean meal sales of major domestic oil mills were 70100 tons, a decrease of 34200 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 51.51%, a 2.37% decrease [13]. - As of November 4, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1199000 tons, a decrease of 35000 tons from October 28 [13]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork in China changed compared to the previous week and the same period last year [13]. - On November 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.13 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased by 0.16 points [14]. 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.9% [17]. - The US Red Book commercial retail sales annual rate increased 5.7% in the week ending November 1 [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4, and the government "shutdown" is set to become the longest in history [18]. - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels [18]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.60% and is cautious about further easing [18]. - **国内要闻** - On November 4, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0885, up 18 points [20]. - On November 4, the People's Bank of China conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [20]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [20]. 资金流向 On November 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 15.329 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 9.065 billion yuan in commodity futures and 6.369 billion yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 0.01 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 套利跟踪 No specific content is provided in the given report.

Report on the Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a chance of gradually bottoming out and rebounding. Domestic palm oil futures are in an oscillatory adjustment phase, while soybean oil supply is expected to remain abundant, but crushers' losses support price - holding. [1] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with November 3, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 50 yuan to 8420 yuan, with a 0.60% increase; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 30 yuan to 8570 yuan, with a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 rapeseed oil decreased by 30 yuan to 9770 yuan, with a 0.31% decrease. [1] - **Spread Changes**: The basis of Y2601 soybean oil increased by 52 yuan to 312 yuan, with a 20.00% increase; the basis of P2601 palm oil increased by 18 yuan to - 46 yuan, with a 28.13% increase; the basis of OI601 rapeseed oil decreased by 3 yuan to 327 yuan, with a 0.91% decrease. [1] - **Inventory Outlook**: In Malaysia, the market expects the end - of - month palm oil inventory to reach about 2.44 million tons. In China, the soybean inventory at factories was 7.7 million tons last weekend, at a record high since 2021. [1] Report on the Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price has weakened from a strong level. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakly oscillatory range, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread position can be held. [4] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 11950 yuan/ton; the price of the main contract basis decreased by 200 yuan to 265 yuan/ton, with a 43.01% decrease. [4] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 203 to 158004, with a 0.37% decrease; the weekly price of piglets decreased by 6 yuan to 20 yuan/kg, with a 23.08% decrease. [4] Report on the Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which provides support for the US soybean market. However, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but due to cost - side support and negative crushing margins, the downward space for domestic soybean meal is limited. [7] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 10 yuan to 3050 yuan, with a 0.33% increase; the spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 10 yuan to 2530 yuan, with a 0.40% increase. [7] - **Spread and Margin Changes**: The basis of M2601 soybean meal increased by 21 yuan to 35 yuan, with a 150.00% increase; the basis of RM2601 rapeseed meal increased by 4 yuan to 33 yuan, with a 13.79% increase. The crushing margin for US Gulf January shipments increased by 26 yuan to - 661 yuan, with a 3.8% increase; the crushing margin for Canadian January shipments decreased by 63 yuan to 596 yuan, with a 9.56% decrease. [7] Report on the Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the corn market is under selling pressure, and the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, remaining in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, due to low imports, demand resilience, and policy regulation, the corn market will be in a tight - balance situation. [8] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of corn 2601 decreased by 6 yuan to 2135 yuan, with a 0.28% decrease; the price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 2444 yuan, with a 0.37% decrease. [8] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The morning remaining vehicle count at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 20 to 648, with a 3.18% increase; the inventory of Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 2385 to 66351, with a 3.73% increase. [8] Report on the Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The expected increase in sugar supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is sluggish, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. [13] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 yuan to 5481 yuan, with a 0.33% decrease; the price of ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 0.47 cents to 14.21 cents/pound, with a 3.20% decrease. [13] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 1.1989 million tons to 11.1621 million tons, with a 12.03% increase; the national cumulative sugar sales increased by 0.88 million tons to 10.48 million tons, with a 9.17% increase. [13] Report on the Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a stalemate but may gradually rise as demand recovers. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300. [16] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3144 yuan/500KG, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased by 10 yuan to 3337 yuan/500KG, with a 0.30% decrease. [15] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 0.15 yuan to 2.8 yuan/feather, with a 5.66% increase; the price of culled hens decreased by 0.18 yuan to 4.11 yuan/jin, with a 4.20% decrease. [15] Report on the Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price, but the price faces hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not significant. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. [18] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of cotton 2605 decreased by 60 yuan to 13522 yuan, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan to 13535 yuan, with a 0.48% decrease. [18] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The commercial cotton inventory increased by 0.6985 million tons to 1.7202 million tons, with a 68.4% increase; the industrial cotton inventory decreased by 0.0362 million tons to 0.8093 million tons, with a 4.3% decrease. [18]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. Although the easing of Sino - US trade relations boosts the US soybean futures price to a 16 - month high and raises domestic import costs, the soybean meal futures price lacks the impetus to follow the increase. With some short - term funds taking profits and leaving the market, the soybean meal futures price turns into wide - range fluctuations. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at the highest level in 7 years, and the continuous losses in the breeding sector lead to weak demand, putting pressure on the spot price and keeping the soybean meal basis negative. Short - term sentiment and cost - driven market face industrial chain pressure, and there is a risk of high - level correction [5] - The palm oil performs the weakest in the oil market, with the market expecting the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of October to climb to a two - year high of 2.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%, which exerts pressure on Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, although the weekly inventory of the three major edible oils has decreased slightly, the total inventory remains at a relatively high level, indicating that the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Currently, the market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment, and the pattern of strong meal and weak oil continues. The palm oil futures price will remain weak in the short term [7] 3. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is also "oscillation with a weak bias" [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market has an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The rise in US soybean prices due to Sino - US trade relations and import costs fails to drive up domestic soybean meal prices effectively. High inventory, weak demand from the breeding sector, and negative basis all contribute to the weak performance. There is a risk of high - level correction [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation with a weak bias" [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil is the weakest in the oil market. High expected Malaysian inventory and relatively high domestic inventory, along with a pessimistic market sentiment and a strong - meal - weak - oil pattern, lead to its weak short - term performance [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates mixed price movements in the Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans, driven by changes in export demand and supply dynamics [1][2] - On November 4, 2023, the most active corn contract for December closed at $4.32 per bushel, down 2.75 cents (0.63%) from the previous trading day, while the December wheat contract rose by 6.75 cents (1.24%) to $5.50 per bushel, and the January 2026 soybean contract fell by 12.75 cents (1.12%) to $11.22 per bushel [1] - A significant factor affecting soybean prices is the anticipated increase in Brazil's soybean production, projected to exceed 170 million tons in 2025, allowing for year-round exports, which could hinder U.S. soybean exports unless adverse weather affects Brazil or Argentina [1] Group 2 - Weather forecasts indicate that Brazil will experience rain and thunderstorms in major crop-growing areas over the next two weeks, while Argentina will have rain until November 7, followed by clear weather, which is favorable for wheat harvesting and soybean planting [2] - The favorable weather conditions in South America, including sunshine, rainfall, and moderate temperatures, are expected to contribute to increased crop yields in 2026 [2]