Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the stock index may strengthen; inflation expectations may ease, and it is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side; for steel, take profit on short - term long positions and hold short straddles; for iron ore, hold short straddles and take profit on the 05 - 09 positive spread arbitrage; for double - coking, consider going long at low levels; for silicon iron, go short on rallies, and for manganese silicon, stay on the sidelines; for most commodities, pay attention to geopolitical and supply - demand factors [17][18][22][23][25] - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, reaching new consensuses and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment [10] - From January to February, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3%, and the service production index increased by 5.2% [10] - Trump said he might attack Iran's oil infrastructure, hoped for European and Asian countries' assistance in ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, and called on the Fed to cut interest rates [11] - Huang Renxun of NVIDIA announced multiple technological breakthroughs, and the company's AI chip revenue is expected to double by the end of 2027 [12] - China will take a series of measures to promote economic development, including building a unified national market, developing intelligent manufacturing, and improving infrastructure [13] - China will establish a dynamic maintenance mechanism for territorial space planning, and the new construction land will mainly use existing land resources [13] - The prices of storage chips, semiconductors, and mobile phones are rising, and major storage manufacturers are taking a more cautious expansion strategy [15] - The IEA has started to release emergency crude oil reserves, and the Middle East conflict has led to a decline in the UAE's oil production [15][16] 2. Stock Index Futures - The short - term stock index may strengthen. The A - share market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The semiconductor sector was strong, and the Iran situation showed signs of easing [17] 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Inflation expectations may ease, and the bond market gradually has odds. It is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side. The central bank may guide the decline of bank liability interest rates to prepare for the next interest rate cut [18] 4. Steel and Iron Ore - The demand for building materials is weak, and the consumption growth rate of some downstream industries of coils has declined. The supply pressure of steel is not large, and the cost has strong support. The iron ore supply and demand are in a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to take profit on short - term long positions of steel and hold short straddles, and hold short straddles for iron ore [20][21][22] 5. Coal and Coke - The prices of double - coking may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low levels. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in a wide - range shock [23][24] 6. Ferroalloys - For silicon iron, go short on rallies; for manganese silicon, stay on the sidelines. Pay attention to the impact of energy sentiment on the unilateral trend of double - silicon [25] 7. Soda Ash and Glass - It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. The supply of soda ash remains high, and the supply and demand contradiction is difficult to reverse. The supply of glass has the expectation of cold repair and ignition, and the demand needs to be restored [27] 8. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and geopolitical trends; zinc prices are considered to be in a fluctuating and bearish trend; lead prices are expected to be in a weak shock; lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely; industrial silicon will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short straddle options; polysilicon will be in a weak shock [29][30][32][33] 9. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices will fluctuate strongly at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual demand and external conflicts; sugar prices will fluctuate at a high level in a rebound; egg prices may rise seasonally, but the upside is limited; apple prices may be strong; corn prices should be chased with caution; jujube prices will fluctuate weakly; pork prices will remain at a low level [36][39][41][43][44] 10. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the supply risk is high; fuel oil will enter a high - level fluctuation; plastics may be strong in the short term; rubber should be cautious in unilateral trading; synthetic rubber will maintain high volatility; methanol may be strong in the short term; caustic soda needs to grasp the market rhythm; asphalt will fluctuate at a high level; PVC may be strong in the short term; the polyester industry chain can be considered to be long with caution; LPG will remain strong; pulp prices have support; log prices are difficult to fall in the long term but may accumulate inventory in the short term; urea can be shorted opportunistically [46][47][48][50][51][52][54][56][58][59][60][61][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic situations. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9] - For most commodities, the current market situation is complex, and short - term trading needs to pay attention to geopolitical events and market liquidity, while long - term trading needs to consider supply - demand fundamentals [1][8] Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold price (London gold) fell 0.28% to $5003.82 per ounce, domestic gold prices also declined; international silver price rose 0.2% to $80.707 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: UAE oil hub partially resumed operation, oil price decline eased inflation concerns; domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventories of various gold and silver products changed [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest reducing long positions in gold; for silver, hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to price support levels [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper price exceeded the 100,000 - yuan mark [2] - **Fundamentals**: Trump's speech affected the market, supply of copper ore remained tight, and demand - side premiums and spreads showed certain characteristics [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a clear war situation to find buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.84% to 25,170 yuan per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock due to factors such as overseas supply tightening and domestic inventory accumulation [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.30% to 2965 yuan per ton [2][3] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina increased steadily, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited, and follow the policy trends of Guinea's ore end [3] Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24,140 yuan per ton and 16,555 yuan per ton respectively, with price declines and changes in inventory [3] - **Fundamentals**: The lead market had a mixed situation, and the zinc market had an external - strong and internal - weak situation [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For zinc, mainly watch and focus on internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities; for lead, just watch [3] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8685 yuan per ton, with changes in price, trading volume, and positions [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, social inventory decreased slightly, and demand in related industries improved [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market is affected by macro events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 yuan [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 159,620 yuan per ton, with a 4.96% increase [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand in related materials increased, and inventory decreased [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise around 150,000 yuan [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 41,705 yuan per ton, with price decline, changes in trading volume, and positions [3][4] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, inventory increased, and downstream product prices declined [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 40,000 - 45,000 yuan, and follow downstream procurement and order price changes [4] Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin price exceeded the 380,000 - yuan mark [4] - **Fundamentals**: Trump's speech affected the market, supply of tin ore was tight, and demand - side premiums and inventory changes were observed [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan per ton, with a price increase [5] - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventory increased, demand was weak, supply decreased, and steel mill profits were poor [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly watch, with a reference range of 3110 - 3170 yuan [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 807 yuan per ton, with a price increase [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, iron water production decreased, and there were structural contradictions in inventory [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly watch, with a reference range of 780 - 820 yuan [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1165.5 yuan per ton, with a price decline [5] - **Fundamentals**: Iron water production decreased, coke price reduction was implemented, and inventory was at a neutral level [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly watch, with a reference range of 1130 - 1200 yuan [5] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell sharply overnight [6] - **Fundamentals**: Global supply was expected to be large, and demand had certain characteristics [6] - **Trading Strategy**: It is difficult to conduct unilateral trading, and pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [6] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures price declined slightly, and spot price partially decreased [6] - **Fundamentals**: Grain sales progress was over 70%, inventory was low, and pay attention to wheat auction and weather [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6] Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase seasonally, and demand increased [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Oils follow crude oil to be strong, but it is difficult for unilateral trading, and pay attention to crude oil and production [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures price rose sharply, and domestic cotton futures price fluctuated strongly [6] - **Fundamentals**: International demand increased, Brazilian cotton production was expected to decrease, and domestic import quota increased [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15300 - 15800 yuan [6] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures price fluctuated narrowly, and spot price was stable [6] - **Fundamentals**: Demand recovered, inventory decreased, but supply was sufficient [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures price fell more in the near - term, and spot price rose and fell [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was in the off - season, and pay attention to slaughter and sales rhythm [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly, with a weak basis and general market transactions [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to geopolitical conflicts, and demand improved [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term follow crude oil, and mid - term short on rallies [8] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose slightly, with a weak basis and general market transactions [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to geopolitical conflicts, and demand improved [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term follow crude oil, and mid - long - term short on rallies with range - bound fluctuations [8] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil price fell sharply and then the decline narrowed, and geopolitical events affected the market [8] - **Fundamentals**: Iranian oil production and export were concentrated, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz was restricted [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly, with a general market trading atmosphere [9] - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by geopolitical conflicts, and demand improved [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term follow crude oil, and mid - long - term the supply - demand situation will weaken [9]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The market is pricing in the possibility of a sustained high - oil - price environment, increasing concerns about economic stagflation in the US in Q1. The overseas macro logic may shift from "soft landing" expectations driven by looser liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the transition from "inflation" to "stagflation". Although inflation data is favorable for stronger rate - cut expectations, rising oil prices make short - term policy paths more cautious [1] - Domestic macro: After the important meeting, the domestic macro situation enters the verification period of fundamental reality. This week's domestic data on exports, inflation, and finance are relatively good, increasing the probability of a "good start" in Q1. Exports have a strong start, core CPI continues to strengthen, PPI recovery rate is high, and corporate medium - and long - term loans provide significant support. The focus is on the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [1] - Asset views: Investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term and control the investment portfolio position. The previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals is downgraded to equal - weight, and TS and TF are relatively recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Morning Meeting Summary - **Financial sector**: Stock index futures show resilience throughout the day, with short - term judgment of oscillation; stock index options focus on call option defense, with short - term judgment of oscillation; treasury bond futures are disturbed by inflation concerns, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by rising oil prices suppressing rate - cut expectations, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Shipping**: The traffic volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and the short - term judgment of container shipping on the European line is weakly oscillating [4] - **Black building materials**: There is a game between reality and expectations, mainly in an oscillating state. For example, steel has cost support, iron ore's shipping and arrival rhythm fluctuate, and coke and coking coal have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and basic metals continue to oscillate. For example, copper prices are under pressure due to the rising US dollar index, and aluminum prices are strongly oscillating due to supply disturbances [4] - **Energy and chemicals**: Gulf oil - producing countries continue to cut production, and crude oil and chemicals remain at a high level and oscillate. For example, crude oil has a shortage expectation, and LPG supply is tightening [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils, and double - meal is adjusted at a high level. For example, corn futures are consolidating at a high level, and pig prices are weakening [5] 3.2 Financial Market Price Changes - **Stock indices**: On March 16, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are different [7] - **Treasury bonds**: The price changes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided, as well as the price changes of the US dollar index, US dollar intermediate price, etc. [7] 3.3 CITIC Industry Index Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, different industries in the CITIC industry index have different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes, such as the rise of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry and the decline of the non - ferrous metal industry [8][9] 3.4 Overseas Commodity Price Changes - On March 13, 2026, energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products in overseas commodities have different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil has a significant increase, while COMEX gold has a decline [10][11] 3.5 Domestic Main Commodity Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products in domestic commodities have different price changes. For example, the container shipping on the European line has a decline, while crude oil has a significant increase [12][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors like geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand dynamics, and policy changes to assess the market trends and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The stock index showed a bottom - up trend on Monday. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.05%, and trading volume was 2.34 trillion yuan. Futures prices fluctuated with the spot market, and the discounts of each variety narrowed slightly [20]. - Core logic: A - shares showed resilience. The market maintained a relative strength of the index through sector rotation and high - low switching. Before the situation becomes clear, the stock index will remain volatile [21]. - Trading strategy: Adopt grid operation for single - side trading, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM\IC long 2609 and short ETF, and use the double - buy strategy for options [21]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Monday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.43%, 0.11%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively [23]. - Core logic: Recently announced macro - economic data exceeded expectations, and the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection has decreased. However, low - level and narrow - range fluctuations in capital prices, general profit - making effects in the equity market, and relatively weak domestic demand still support the bond market [23]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short positions should be closed in batches on dips. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. Domestic soybean inventory decreased, while soybean meal inventory also decreased [27]. - Core logic: With the lack of further positive news in US soybean exports, the market returned to the fundamental logic, and the soybean meal price was under pressure [28]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, there may be a downward pressure on meal prices. For arbitrage, narrow the MRM09 spread. For options, use the seagull put option [28]. Sugar - Market performance: International sugar prices fell significantly, while domestic sugar prices declined slightly [29]. - Core logic: International sugar prices are expected to remain volatile and strong due to factors such as high international oil prices and reduced sugar production expectations in major producing countries. Domestic sugar prices may start rising earlier but are expected to move relatively smoothly [31][32]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, international and domestic sugar prices are expected to be slightly strong. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices declined. Domestic palm oil inventory increased [33][34]. - Core logic: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are the focus. Crude oil prices fell, and oils followed the downward trend. The supply of domestic oils is relatively abundant [34]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, oils may be volatile at high levels. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35]. Black Metals Steel - Market performance: The black metal sector maintained a volatile and strong trend at night. Steel mills continued to reduce production, and the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate [55]. - Core logic: Overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise, which may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. In the short term, steel prices will be volatile due to overseas and raw material factors [55]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coal ratio and continue to hold short positions in the hot - rolled rebar spread. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly, mainly following the changes in oil, gas, and chemicals [58]. - Core logic: The spot market sentiment of coking coal has improved, and prices have shown strength. In the short term, coking coal prices will follow the trend of oil and gas and be volatile [59]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be volatile and strong, and cautious investors can partially close long positions. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [59]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold fell 0.25%, and London silver rose 0.2%. The US dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly [65]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, and the market is worried about future inflation. Gold and silver prices will be volatile in the short term [66]. - Trading strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate with a slightly short - biased and volatile trading idea. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [67]. Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.58%, and the LME and COMEX inventories decreased [72]. - Core logic: The US - Iran conflict continues, and there is still great uncertainty in the market. High inventory restricts the upward momentum of copper prices in the short term, but the substitution of refined copper rods for recycled copper rods is prominent [72]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be volatile in the short term, and beware of liquidity risks. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [73]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - Market performance: The SCFIS and SCFI European routes showed an upward trend [99]. - Core logic: Some shipping companies plan to levy emergency bunker adjustment factors, and the supply and demand of the container shipping market are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the off - season [100]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [101]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates - Market performance: The BDI, BCI, BPI, and BSI indices showed different trends [102]. - Core logic: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, and the high oil price puts pressure on shipowners. The performance of different ship - type markets is different [104]. - Trading strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices declined [113]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions and an increase in supply losses. The international oil price will be volatile at a high level [113]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, be bullish at a high level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [114]. Asphalt - Market performance: The night - session prices of asphalt futures rose, and the spot prices in various regions increased [115]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to an increase in crude oil prices and concerns about raw materials. The supply of asphalt is expected to decrease, but the downstream demand recovery is slow [116]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be strong, but do not chase the high price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [116].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current gold price is in a sideways consolidation state. The sharp rise in oil prices under the background of the US - Iran war has pushed up market inflation expectations and prompted the market to re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The GDP of the US in the fourth quarter of 2025 was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly dragged down by the government shutdown, but consumer resilience still exists. In January 2026, the PCE and core PCE data recorded year - on - year increases of 2.8% and 3.1% respectively, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target, and the core PCE data reached a new high in nearly a year. In the context of rising energy prices, it may intensify the upward pressure on prices, which will make the Fed cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts. In the short term, precious metal prices are difficult to break out of the range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1050 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20000 - 22000 yuan/kilogram [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.86% to 1115.40 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 20528.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.15% to 5009.50 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.40% to 81.01 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.23%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.82 [2]. - The US GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly dragged down by the government shutdown, but consumer resilience still exists. In January 2026, the US PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, the core PCE rose to 3.1% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target. The University of Michigan consumer survey showed that the one - year inflation expectation in March was stable at 3.4%, while the long - term expectation fell slightly from 3.3% to 3.2%, and the market may have limited concerns about the continuous upward trend of inflation [2]. - Trump said that Iran's retaliation scope this time exceeded expectations and hinted at a possible attack on Iran's Kharg Island oil facilities; he also warned NATO that if it did not assist in ensuring the navigation safety of the Strait of Hormuz, it would face a bad situation and gave a timetable for the end of the war, saying that the conflict would end soon but not this week. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US approved the passage of some ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices may be well below 80 US dollars in the next few months [3]. Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was not available; the volume was not available; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 1.02% to 41.40 million lots; the inventory decreased by 0.48% to 1008 tons [6]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 5044.60 US dollars/ounce, down 1.67%; the closing price of the active contract was 1118.34 yuan/gram, down 1.29%; the volume increased by 20.65% to 35.04 million lots [6]. - **SHFE Gold**: The position decreased by 0.43% to 31.17 million lots; the inventory remained unchanged at 105.42 tons; the precipitation funds decreased by 1.72% to 557.67 billion yuan; the closing price (long pays short) decreased by 1.44% to 1114.99 yuan/gram; the volume decreased by 1.56% to 51.45 tons; the position decreased by 1.45% to 234.81 tons [6]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was not available; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 1.88% to 11.55 million lots; the inventory decreased by 0.63% to 10562 tons [6]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 83.70 US dollars/ounce, down 3.83%; the closing price of the active contract was 20301.00 yuan/kilogram, down 2.97%; the volume increased by 34.81% to 122.38 million lots [6]. - **SHFE Silver**: The position decreased by 0.77% to 47.92 million lots; the inventory increased by 1.27% to 330.71 tons; the precipitation funds decreased by 3.72% to 262.64 billion yuan; the closing price (short pays long) decreased by 3.88% to 20077.00 yuan/kilogram; the volume increased by 27.49% to 288.30 tons; the position increased by 0.01% to 2886.542 tons [6]. ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The holdings of iShare US decreased by 1.40% to 487.14 tons; the holdings of GBS UK remained unchanged at 30.55 tons; the holdings of PHAU UK decreased by 1.00% to 53.83 tons; the holdings of GOLD UK remained unchanged at 29.96 tons; the holdings of SGBS Switzerland decreased by 0.07% to 35.17 tons [65]. - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price was 73.22 US dollars, up 0.73%; the volume of SLV US decreased by 21.00% to 3639.80 million shares; the holdings of ETPMAG Australia decreased by 0.88% to 483.10 tons; the holdings of PSLV Canada remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; the holdings of CEF Canada remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, providing support for the stock market from the molecular end. However, the situation between the US and Iran will suppress market risk appetite, while Chinese policies to cultivate the domestic market may form a certain degree of hedging. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and remain optimistic in the medium - term [2][17]. - The bond market is affected by inflation concerns and better - than - expected economic data, showing a downward trend in shock. Short - term short - selling may be more cost - effective than long - buying [3][20]. - Steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the upside space is limited due to weak terminal demand and uncertain infrastructure investment sustainability [4][24]. - The oil and fat market is strengthening. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 9800 - 10000 yuan, following crude oil fluctuations before the confirmation or refutation of Indonesia's B50 policy [5][31]. - The sugar market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to the sales pressure of sugar mills [36]. - The soybean meal market is expected to decline today following the CBOT soybean futures limit - down. Future attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, China's purchase of US soybeans, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [39]. - The corn market is in a multi - factor game in the short - term. In the medium - and long - term, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upside is restricted by demand recovery and policy regulation [42]. - Platinum and palladium are expected to have weak performance in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium - term [44]. - Lead prices may have limited downside space due to cost support, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [45]. - Zinc prices are expected to enter a shock adjustment period in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [47]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [51]. - Copper prices may bottom out in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread operation between domestic and foreign markets [55]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [59]. - The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range [62]. - The risk of asphalt supply interruption is increasing, which strongly supports the market price [63]. - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the restart rhythm [66]. - Styrene supply is expected to continue to decline, and the styrene market will fluctuate strongly [69]. - The upper limit of urea 05 contract is restricted, and it is recommended that market participants replenish inventory based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [72]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the inflection point of energy prices in the medium - term [73]. - The glass market is expected to have large short - term fluctuations, but the rebound strength is expected to be weak [74]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that oil prices may be "well below" $80 per barrel in a few months. The gold market is under pressure due to the lack of direct upward momentum, and it is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Yellen said that the US默许部分船只 through the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil price has slightly declined. The US stock market has rebounded, but it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13][14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The consumer goods trade - in policy has driven sales of over 300 billion yuan. The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, providing support for the stock market. The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and remain optimistic in the medium - term [16][17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data from January to February exceeded expectations. The central bank carried out 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is affected by inflation and economic data, and short - term short - selling may be more cost - effective [18][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's crude steel production from January to February decreased year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [21][24][25]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The international steam coal market is inactive. The domestic and foreign coal prices are decoupled. The domestic coal price may rise passively if the conflict continues until May - June [26][27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The fixed - asset investment from January to February increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is highly uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is considering levying a "windfall tax" on commodities. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9800 - 10000 yuan, following crude oil fluctuations [29][30][31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory and India's sugar production data are released. The sugar market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [32][35][36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of March and the US soybean crushing data are released. The soybean meal market is expected to decline today, and future attention should be paid to relevant factors [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Brazil's corn production and the EU's corn import data are released. The corn market is in a multi - factor game in the short - term and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the medium - and long - term [40][41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices declined. They are expected to have weak performance in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium - term [43][44]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead inventory increased. The lead price may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc inventory increased. The zinc price is expected to enter a shock adjustment period in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A new project of advanced battery materials is signed. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [48][50][51]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are labor strikes and production declines in the copper industry. The copper price may bottom out in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive spread operation between domestic and foreign markets [52][54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The semiconductor industry has a new wave of price increases. The tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][59]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - India is negotiating to ensure the passage of LPG transport ships. The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range [60][61][62]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory decreased. The risk of asphalt supply interruption is increasing, which strongly supports the market price [62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - An Iranian methanol plant has restarted. Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory decreased. The styrene supply is expected to continue to decline, and the styrene market will fluctuate strongly [66][67][69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The upper limit of urea 05 contract is restricted, and it is recommended to replenish inventory based on rigid demand [70][71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the inflection point of energy prices in the medium - term [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price was flat. The glass market is expected to have large short - term fluctuations, but the rebound strength is expected to be weak [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and stagflation trading supports its medium - term allocation value. The price is affected by geopolitical risks, re - inflation concerns, and high - interest rate constraints. In the short term, it may maintain high - level oscillation, and if oil prices rise, it may remain resilient under the stagflation trading framework [1][2]. - Silver follows the rise of gold but has limited elasticity, and its volatility may continue to increase. It is in a dual tug - of war between the benefits of its precious - metal attribute and the damage to its industrial attribute. In the short term, it is expected to continue the high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: The continuation of the Middle East war, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the upward movement of energy prices strengthen the hedging and anti - inflation attributes of gold. The weakening of the US dollar provides marginal support for gold, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and compress the market's bets on the Fed's short - term interest rate cuts. The slowdown of US economic growth and the potential weakening of the US dollar's credit also support gold [2]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold may maintain high - level oscillation. If oil prices continue to rise, it may remain strong under the stagflation trading framework [2]. Silver - **Logic**: Silver is driven by the overall hedging sentiment of precious metals, but its industrial attribute makes it more sensitive to growth expectations. The high real - interest rate environment suppresses it, and it is in a dual tug - of war in the stagflation environment [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to continue the high - volatility oscillation pattern. If oil prices rise and global risk appetite falls, the gold - silver ratio may rise further; if the US dollar weakens and the market trades the medium - term easing expectation again, its elasticity may be released [3]. Commodity Index - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indexes include the Commodity Index (2624.35, +0.57%), Commodity 20 Index (2973.96, +0.65%), Industrial Products Index (2579.71, +0.86%), and PPI Commodity Index (1480.22, - 0.20%) [42]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On March 13, 2026, the index was 4394.13, with a daily decline of 0.72%, a 5 - day increase of 0.85%, a 1 - month increase of 1.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.90% [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is severely affected by the Iran conflict. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a large - scale supply gap in oil, pushing up oil prices, which in turn impacts the global economy. The stock market is at a critical point, and if the geopolitical situation does not improve in two weeks, there will be a crash - like decline. The US private credit crisis is spreading to the traditional banking industry, and there is a risk of an unexpected default wave. The global economy has been in a downward trend since the end of 2025 due to the US's wrong policies [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics and Global Economy - **Oil Supply and Price**: If the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts until the end of April, the global daily supply gap will reach 10 million barrels, pushing up oil prices above $150. The IEA releases 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the actual global release speed is no more than 3 million barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by the blocked Strait of Hormuz is 11 - 16 million barrels per day. The price of fuel oil in Singapore has soared to $160 - 175, hitting a record high [1][2][3] - **Stock Market**: US stock institutions have the largest single - week sell - off in a decade. The S&P 500 futures have been net sold for $36.2 billion, and the ETF short - exposure has soared to a three - year high. If the geopolitical situation does not improve in two weeks, the stock market will face a crash - like decline. The Nasdaq futures have broken through the support level, and there may be a new round of large - scale selling [1][2][3] - **Gold**: After the Iran conflict, the gold price has fallen, but as the Strait blockade extends, energy inflation and the potential policy shift of the Federal Reserve will reshape the bullish logic of gold, and JP Morgan maintains a strong bullish view [1] - **Shipping**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the fuel oil supply from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for 20% of the global supply. Maersk warns that the Asian supply points are facing depletion, and the global shipping supply system is in an emergency [1] - **Wealth Center**: The escalation of the Iran war is impacting Dubai's status as a global wealth center. High - profile institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have launched emergency evacuation plans, and some Asian billionaires are considering repatriating their assets to Singapore and Hong Kong [1] - **Private Credit**: In the first quarter, some of the largest private credit funds have received redemption requests of over $10 billion, and the debt funds managed by relevant institutions have only agreed to pay about 70% of the $10.1 billion redemption requests, with the rest postponed [1] - **Banking Risk**: The US private credit crisis is spreading to the traditional banking industry, and Deutsche Bank has exposed about $30 billion in relevant risk exposures [2] - **Federal Reserve Uncertainty**: Nomura says that the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing from US assets" at that time [2] - **Global Economic Trend**: Due to the US's wrong policies, the global economy passed its peak at the end of 2025 and has been in a downward trend [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of the live - hog market is relatively loose in the short term. The follow - up price is mainly affected by the supply - side after the decline in inventory, with limited upside space [1][3]. - The live - hog futures price shows a significant downward trend. The recent sharp decline in the futures market is due to the deepening losses of the breeding end and increased market concerns about the subsequent supply side. The overall market pressure is still obvious [3]. - The sustainability of the increase in spot prices needs further observation, but the downside space is also limited. The price pressure is still significant, and there is still some pressure on the near - term futures contracts in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - side pressure is still obvious, and the overall futures price is expected to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Price - Today, live - hog prices across the country are in a volatile state. Prices in the north generally show an upward trend, while those in the south show a downward trend. The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased compared to yesterday, but it is expected to continue to increase this month. The出栏量 of ordinary farmers remains relatively low, and it may increase in the future. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and the market entry is still relatively cautious [1]. Futures Price - The live - hog futures price shows a significant downward trend. After rising under macro - influence, it has fallen significantly. The recent sharp decline in the futures market is due to the deepening losses of the breeding end and increased market concerns about the subsequent supply side [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The piglet price this week is 316, a decrease of 10 compared to last week. The sow price is 1539, a decrease of 4 compared to last week [1]. Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 is - 920, a decrease of 100 compared to yesterday; LH9 - 1 is - 780, a decrease of 125 compared to yesterday; LH9 - 11 is - 260, a decrease of 55 compared to yesterday; LH11 - 1 is - 520, a decrease of 70 compared to yesterday [1]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 148,008 heads, an increase of 348 compared to yesterday [1]. Size - Pig Price Spreads - The price spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.6, a decrease of 0.05 compared to yesterday; the price spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs is 0.08, a decrease of 0.01 compared to yesterday; the price spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs is 0.49, a decrease of 0.04 compared to yesterday; the price spread between large pigs and standard pigs is 0.57, a decrease of 0.05 compared to yesterday [1]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for LH59. - Options: Sell call options for near - term contracts [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continued its oscillating trend last week, with major indices showing divergent performances. The ChiNext Index led the gains with a weekly increase of 2.51%, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the losses with a weekly decline of 2.88% [1]. - In terms of sectors, coal and power equipment sectors performed prominently, with weekly increases of 5.03% and 4.55% respectively. Defense and military, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors showed weak trends, with weekly declines of about 6.64% and 4.33% respectively [1]. - The market focus last week remained on the evolution of geopolitical situations and changes in US dollar liquidity. The current geopolitical situation is still complex, and the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, especially the uncertainty of the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed energy prices to continue to oscillate at high levels [1]. - In terms of exchange rates, high energy prices have led to a continuous increase in inflationary pressure in the US. The market expects the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index has maintained a high - level and relatively strong oscillation. The RMB currently maintains an oscillating and relatively strong pattern, which provides some support for the stock index [1]. - The market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and the implied volatility of financial options has rebounded. It is advisable to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500. For the STAR 50 Index with large recent fluctuations and still relatively high static valuations, if holding the underlying assets, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If there are already substantial spot returns, one can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with the irrational rise of the market, such as the ChiNext Index. The discount of the CSI 1000 - 2606 stock index futures has converged, and one can consider moving positions to the 2609 contract with a relatively high discount to form a covered call strategy of long - index and short - out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Last week, the market continued to oscillate, with major indices showing divergent performances. The ChiNext Index led the gains, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the losses. Coal and power equipment sectors performed well, while defense and military, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors showed weak trends [1]. - The market focus was on geopolitical situations and US dollar liquidity. Geopolitical complexity pushed energy prices to oscillate at high levels. High energy prices increased US inflationary pressure, and the market expected the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The RMB was relatively strong, supporting the stock index [1]. 3.2 Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options mainly showed a slight rebound. The IV of STAR 50 options (IV = 27%) and ChiNext ETF options (IV = 21%) has rebounded to near the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options is currently in the range of 14% - 16%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is in the range of 20% - 23%. The position - to - call ratio (PCR) of most financial options is in the range of 75% - 110%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous week [2]. 3.3 Strategy Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and the implied volatility of financial options has rebounded. - It is advisable to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500. Since the IV of options has slightly declined, one can buy out - of - the - money call options of the corresponding indices with long - term expirations. - For the STAR 50 Index with large recent fluctuations and still relatively high static valuations, if holding the underlying assets, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If there are already substantial spot returns, one can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with the irrational rise of the market, such as the ChiNext Index. - The discount of the CSI 1000 - 2606 stock index futures has converged, and one can consider moving positions to the 2609 contract with a relatively high discount to form a covered call strategy of long - index and short - out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3.4 Market Overview of Each Option - The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, price changes, IV, IV changes, historical quantiles, option trading volumes, and position - to - call ratios of various options such as SSE 50ETF, CSI 300ETF, CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, STAR 50ETF, etc., as well as the IV and skew index data of different periods for each option [5].