Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in October 2025 reached 3.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Cumulative production from January to October 2025 totaled 37.75 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1] - In October 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.95 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Cumulative production for the first ten months of 2025 was 68.14 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry (02788.HK) has launched a global IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise approximately HKD 5.495 billion, with a share price range of HKD 10.18 to HKD 10.99, and plans to list on November 24 [2] Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to issue around 500 million shares, with 450 million shares allocated for international placement and 50 million shares for public offering in Hong Kong [2] - The net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated as follows: approximately 50% for expanding overseas production capacity, 40% for green energy projects, and 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [2] - The public offering period is from November 14 to November 19, with an entry fee of approximately HKD 5,550 for 500 shares [2] Group 2: Cornerstone Investors - A total of 17 cornerstone investors, including Hillhouse, China Hongqiao, and others, have committed to subscribe to the shares, with a total subscription amount of approximately USD 351 million at the upper end of the price range [3] - The participation of cornerstone investors is expected to enhance market confidence in the company's business and future development [3] - The company has not provided any additional benefits or agreements to cornerstone investors, ensuring equal status for the subscribed shares with all issued shares [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream segment of the aluminum industry chain, primarily covering alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [4] - The company operates in three stages of upstream production: bauxite mining, alumina refining, and electrolytic aluminum smelting [4] - According to CRU, the refining and smelting stages have the highest value in the aluminum industry chain [4] Group 4: Financial Performance - The company's revenue, gross profit, and gross profit margin have shown stable growth over the past three years [4] - Revenue increased from RMB 13.49 billion in 2022 to RMB 15.16 billion in 2024, while net profit rose from RMB 0.913 billion to RMB 2.63 billion during the same period [4] - Gross profit grew from RMB 2.04 billion in 2022 to RMB 4.28 billion in 2024, with gross profit margin improving from 15.1% to 28.2% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The research institute has developed key technologies for the efficient extraction of strategic rare metals from complex zinc-based materials, addressing industry challenges related to low recovery rates, lengthy processes, and high costs [1] Group 1: Technology Development - The newly developed technologies include indium directional leaching-direct extraction, germanium material maturation leaching-hydrochloric acid regeneration, and gallium-germanium synergistic extraction-cyclone electrolysis [1] - These innovations enable the efficient and clean extraction of rare metals such as indium, germanium, and gallium [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The technologies have been successfully applied in several enterprises, including Southern Nonferrous Metals Group, Yusheng Germanium Industry, and Danxia Smelting Plant, significantly improving the recovery rates of indium, germanium, and gallium [1] - The advancements contribute to resource recycling and enhance the value of the industrial chain [1] Group 3: Future Directions - The research team plans to continue strengthening core technology development to promote the transformation and upgrading of the nonferrous metal industry towards higher value and greener practices [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the aluminum and copper industries, highlighting the current market dynamics and future outlooks for both metals. Key Points on Aluminum - **High Copper-Aluminum Ratio**: The copper-aluminum ratio is currently at a historical high of approximately 4, indicating a significant potential for aluminum price increases as it is seen as a substitute for copper in various applications, particularly in the electrical and home appliance sectors [2][6] - **Aluminum Price Dynamics**: LME aluminum prices have reached new highs, while domestic aluminum prices remain relatively weak. This price discrepancy creates conditions for aluminum to experience a price correction or "catch-up" [1][2] - **Supply Constraints**: China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization is nearing its limit at 98%, with a total capacity of 45 million tons. This limits further production increases. Additionally, overseas production is constrained due to power supply issues in regions like Canada and Australia [8] - **Export Tax Changes**: The cancellation of export tax rebates has led to a significant decrease in China's aluminum and aluminum product exports in 2025 compared to 2024. However, there has been an increase in scrap aluminum imports, indicating strong domestic consumption capabilities [9] - **Inventory Levels**: Both domestic and global electrolytic aluminum inventories are at low levels, which supports price stability and potential increases in 2026 [10] Key Points on Copper - **Supply Growth Slowdown**: Global copper mine supply growth has slowed to 1-2% due to issues such as mining difficulties in Indonesia. This limited supply makes copper prices more resilient to declines [3][4] - **Market Optimism**: The market outlook for copper prices is optimistic, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [3][5] - **Profitability in the Lead Industry**: The profitability in the electrolytic lead industry is concentrated in the electrolytic segment, with production profits nearing 4,000 RMB per ton. This indicates a healthy market for related stocks [11] Other Important Insights - **Downstream Demand Variability**: The demand in the casting industry is mixed, with stable orders for automotive profiles but pressure on construction-related profiles. Overall, downstream consumption is maintaining a year-on-year growth trend [12] - **Future Outlook for Copper and Magnesium**: Both copper and magnesium are expected to remain attractive investment options due to ongoing supply issues. Magnesium, in particular, is anticipated to see a price increase due to its favorable fundamentals compared to copper [13]

公司聚焦于铝产业链上游中的氧化铝精炼和电解铝冶炼。铝产业链主要包括上游铝生产和下游铝合金加 工。上游铝生产主要包含三个阶段:铝土矿开采、氧化铝精炼和电解铝冶炼。根据CRU的报告，按照吨 铝附加值计算，精炼和冶炼是铝产业链中附加值最高的环节。 公司2022年度、2023年度、2024年度截至12月31日止，净利润分别为8.81亿元、10.04亿元、20.56亿 元。（数据宝） 公司引入HHLR Advisors, Ltd.、Glencore International AG、Mercuria Holdings (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.、泰康 人寿保险有限责任公司、中国宏桥集团有限公司等基石投资者，将以发售价共认购数量下限约2.48亿股 可购买发售的股份。 创新实业预计于2025年11月24日在主板上市，中国国际金融香港证券有限公司、华泰金融控股（香港） 有限公司为联席保荐人。 创新实业(02788.HK)发布公告，公司拟全球发售5.00亿股股份，其中香港发售股份5000.00万股，国际发 售股份4.50亿股，另有7500.00万股超额配股权。招股日期为11月14日至11月19日，最高发售价10 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the resignation of Jin Xin as the General Manager of Shengtun Mining Group and the subsequent appointment of Long Shuang as the new General Manager [1][3][5] - Jin Xin submitted his resignation on November 12, 2025, due to work adjustments, and will no longer hold any position in the company after his resignation [1][4] - The board of directors approved the appointment of Long Shuang as the new General Manager and Wu Yicong as the Executive Vice General Manager, effective from the date of the board's approval [1][7][8] Group 2 - Long Shuang, born in 1984, holds a doctorate and has extensive experience in the metallurgy industry, having held various positions in Zhuzhou Smelter Group before joining Shengtun Mining [2] - The company focuses on the development and utilization of energy metal resources, with a primary business in energy metals, basic metals, and metal trading, particularly in copper, nickel, and cobalt for new energy batteries [13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives outlooks for various commodities, including "看多" (bullish) for copper, nickel, stainless steel, and soybeans, and "震荡" (sideways) for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, gold, silver, etc. [1] 2) Core Views - The A-share market is currently in a relatively vacuous macro environment, lacking a clear upward trend. It is in a sideways movement, accumulating momentum for the next upward move. With policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the stock index has strong downside support. [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside. [1] - For commodities, different factors affect their prices. For example, high copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - The A - share market is in a sideways trend, accumulating energy for an upward move. With policy and liquidity support, the downside of the stock index is limited. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings restrict the upside. [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] - **Aluminum**: Limited industrial drivers recently, but improved macro sentiment leads to a stronger aluminum price. [1] - **Alumina**: With production still having a small profit, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, resulting in a double - increase in production and inventory, and a weak fundamental pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in LME zinc, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to the domestic supply surplus, caution is needed when chasing high prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The US Senate's progress on ending the government shutdown causes fluctuations in market risk appetite. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material ferronickel weakens, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly. Steel mills' production in November decreases. The stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in a sideways movement. [1] - **Tin**: The raw material end has not recovered, and the new demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Supported by the dual - liquidity easing expectations of the US fiscal and monetary policies, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding a December interest rate cut. The gold price may fluctuate in a high - level range. [1] - **Silver**: Boosted by liquidity, the silver price may be stronger in the short term. [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November is decreasing. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, and the terminal installation in the fourth quarter is increasing marginally. [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure. [1] Steel and Iron - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices. [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro sentiment is realized. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment. [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is struggling at the previous high. Coke's price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the steel - coking game is intense. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: A 4% production cut in Malaysia in early November fails to drive inventory reduction, and the domestic supply in the fourth quarter is relatively loose. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to be long in arbitrage. [1] - **Cotton**: The new domestic cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply changes from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure increases year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw sugar price. [1] - **Corn**: The short - term market has a strong willingness to purchase high - quality corn, and the spot price is firm. The upward movement of the futures price lacks strong drivers before the supply pressure is fully released. [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the purchase progress for the 12 - 1 ship is slow. The domestic futures are expected to follow the US market and move sideways and strongly before the USDA report. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The short - term geopolitical situation cools down, and the market sentiment eases. [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the commodity market sentiment is positive. [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The cost of butadiene provides insufficient support, the synthetic rubber supply is loose, and the price has stopped falling recently. [1] - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price follows the decline of the crude oil price, and the coal - based cost support strengthens slightly. [1] - **Short Fiber**: The short - fiber price closely follows the cost due to the support of PX and the strengthening of the basis. [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the US benzene price rises, and the number of styrene overhauls increases. [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from anti -内卷 policies and the cost end. [1] - **PP**: New production capacity is released, the overhaul intensity weakens, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. [1] - **PVC**: The market returns to fundamentals, the number of overhauls increases slightly, but demand weakens. [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Guangxi alumina starts delivery, the subsequent overhaul concentration decreases, the caustic soda inventory decreases, and there is a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. [1] - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, the CP/FEI price weakens, and the domestic LPG fundamentals are stable. [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The macro - positive sentiment is gradually digested, the peak - season price increase expectation is priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial and commodity futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping indices, and multiple metal and energy - chemical commodities. It presents the current market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding operation suggestions for each market. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - share major indices fluctuated narrowly, with the high - dividend value sector remaining strong. The insurance, energy equipment, and trade sectors rose, while the export chain and power - related industries declined. Among the four major stock index futures contracts, most followed the index decline, and the basis discounts of the main contracts expanded [2][3]. - News: The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference was launched on November 12. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen comprehensive investment and financing reforms. Japan's Prime Minister's economic stimulus plan is expected to be finalized later this month [3][4]. - Fund flow: On November 12, A - share trading volume decreased by about 50 billion yuan, with a total turnover of 1.95 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. In case of a deep decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5][6]. - Fund flow: The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 12, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds improved, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: As the capital pressure eases marginally, the bond market is in a tug - of war between multiple and short factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Fed officials released dovish signals, and the low inventory continued to drive up the prices of gold and silver. International gold and silver prices rose, with international silver showing a stronger increase [8][10][11]. - Future outlook: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increases after the end of the government "shutdown". Geopolitical and other risks drive more central banks to increase gold holdings, and precious metals are expected to continue to strengthen [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot quotation: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe basic ports varied among different shipping companies. As of November 10, the SCFIS European line index rose by 24.5% month - on - month [12]. - Fundamental situation: As of November 10, the global container total capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [12]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The futures market is expected to fluctuate between 1700 - 1800 points, and it is recommended to conduct band operations. The short - term operation range is 1650 - 1850 [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 12, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86,795 yuan/ton, with the price in Guangdong slightly lower. The downstream orders improved after the price correction [13]. - Macro: The previous high balance of the US Treasury TGA account tightened market liquidity, but it is expected to improve after the end of the government shutdown [14]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November. Attention should be paid to the price trend of sulfuric acid [14]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod processing increased. The downstream has a certain tolerance for price increases, and the demand has strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: LME and domestic social inventories decreased, while COMEX inventory increased [15]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. The main contract should focus on the support at 86,500 [16]. Alumina - Spot: On November 12, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with the overall supply pattern becoming looser and the price showing a downward trend [16]. - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year. It is expected that the supply will remain in surplus in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [17]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [17]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The alumina price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 12, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, but the actual transaction volume was small at high prices [19]. - Supply: In October, the production of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum rose. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The downstream is in the traditional peak season, but the operating rates of processing products declined [20]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased [20]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term, testing the pressure level of 22,000. It is recommended to short on rallies [21]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 12, the spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [21]. - Supply: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will decline slightly in November due to the shortage of scrap aluminum [22]. - Demand: In October, the demand showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high prices suppressed the purchasing willingness [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [22]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The ADC12 price is expected to be strong and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD01 and short on AL01 can be considered when the spread is above 550 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On November 12, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore processing fee is expected to continue to decline, and the production of refined zinc may decline in November. The export space is open, and the supply pressure is limited [25]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries declined, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations. The export of refined zinc may boost the domestic price [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 22,300 - 23,000 [27]. Tin - Spot: On November 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, but the actual transaction volume was limited, and the downstream was mainly in a wait - and - see state [27]. - Supply: In September, the import of tin ore and tin ingots showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved, but the overall supply remained tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: In October, the operating rate of solder decreased. The LME inventory increased, the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory increased [29]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The tin price is expected to be strong and fluctuate. It is recommended to hold long positions [30]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 12, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30]. - Supply: In October, the production of refined nickel decreased, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, the demand for stainless steel is general, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited long - term sustainability [31]. - Inventory: Both domestic and overseas inventories increased, with the LME inventory remaining at a high level [31]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The nickel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 12, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, and the basis decreased [33]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, and the price of ferrochrome is weak [34]. - Supply: In October, the production of stainless steel increased, and it is expected to decrease in November. The production of 300 - series stainless steel remains at a high level [34]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [35]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The stainless steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 12, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, but the trading volume was light [37]. - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and last week's production data also increased slightly, mainly driven by lithium - spodumene and mica production [38]. - Demand: The demand is generally optimistic, with the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in demand after November [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with the upstream and downstream inventories both decreasing [39]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [40]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the price of silicon wafers continued to decline [41]. - Supply: In November, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline [41]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and each link still has an inventory build - up expectation [42]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased [42]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [43]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: On November 12, the prices of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [44]. - Supply: In October, the production of industrial silicon increased, and it is expected to decline in November [45]. - Demand: The demand is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the decrease in polysilicon production [45]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased, while the factory inventory increased [45]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [46]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price remained stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements has weak support, while the cost of carbon elements has support. The profit of steel products has declined recently [46]. - Supply: From January to September, the production of iron elements increased. In October - November, the production of molten iron decreased, and the production of five major steel products also decreased [47]. - Demand: The domestic demand is still weak, and the export is at a high level. The apparent demand has declined [48]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, with the inventory of hot - rolled coils increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to continue to hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage. For single - side operations, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. Iron Ore - Spot and futures: As of November 12, the spot price of mainstream iron ore powder increased, and the futures price also rose [49][50]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron decreased, the blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profit rate decreased [50]. - Supply: The global shipment volume and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased, the daily unloading volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [51]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to partially take profit on the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [51]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: As of November 12, the coking coal futures fluctuated at a low level, the price of Shanxi coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal declined [52]. - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of some sample coal mines increased, and the production of raw coal and clean coal increased [53]. - Demand: The production of coke and molten iron decreased, and the steel mill profit rate decreased [54]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased moderately, with coal mines and steel mills reducing inventory and other links increasing inventory [55]. - Viewpoint: The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [56]. Coke - Futures and spot: As of November 12, the coke futures fluctuated at a low level. The third - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the fourth - round increase was initiated [57][60]. - Profit: The average profit of independent coking plants was negative [59]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased [59]. - Demand: The production of molten iron decreased, and the steel mill profit was low, suppressing the price increase of coke [59]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills decreased slightly [59]. - Viewpoint: The coke price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: This week, copper prices slightly declined, finding support at the 85,000 yuan level. The current slow inventory build - up pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with fundamentals remaining moderately weak. The 85,000 yuan level may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - **Aluminum**: Iceland's long - term reduction in electrolytic aluminum production is finalized, and high overseas electricity prices increase the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. Future aluminum supply and demand may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - **Zinc**: This week, the zinc price center has risen. Supply - side TC is accelerating its decline. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and overseas production faces some resistance. The export window has opened. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply has slightly increased in October, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory remains high. With Indonesia's policy support, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. - **Lead**: This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply - side situation has improved, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13]. - **Tin**: This week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply and demand are currently weak. In the short - term, it is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, consider holding at low prices near the cost line [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In Q4, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices will likely fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated widely. Short - term supply and demand are strong, with a de - stocking trend. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction and speculative demand [17]. - **Nickel**: The supply of pure nickel has slightly decreased, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. With policy support from Indonesia, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [21]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by - 20, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 20, and the inventory in the previous period's exchange increased by 1,124 tons. The spot import profit decreased by 241.83 yuan, and the March import profit decreased by 53.21 yuan [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices slightly declined, finding support at 85,000 yuan. The macro - market is waiting for the release of TGA account liquidity. The market at the Shanghai Copper Conference is generally optimistic about next year's demand. However, the copper rod operating rate has declined, and the substitution effect has weakened. The current slow inventory build - up may continue until Q1 next year [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 40 yuan, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 1 yuan. The aluminum LME inventory remained unchanged [2][20]. - **Market Analysis**: Iceland's long - term reduction in electrolytic aluminum production is finalized, and high overseas electricity prices increase the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. The domestic aluminum market is stronger than the overseas market, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. Future supply and demand may remain in a tight balance [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot premium of zinc increased by 10, and the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory increased by 575 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the zinc price center has risen. The supply - side TC is accelerating its decline, and the demand is seasonally weak domestically. Overseas production faces some resistance due to processing fees. The export window has opened [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 100 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In October, the supply of stainless steel slightly increased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory remains high. With Indonesia's policy support, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot premium of lead remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25 yuan. The LME inventory decreased by 1,500 tons [13]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply - side situation has improved, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot import profit decreased by 1,918.03 yuan, and the spot export profit increased by 1,194 yuan. The LME inventory increased by 40 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply and demand are currently weak. In the short - term, it is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, consider holding at low prices near the cost line [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15 yuan, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 15 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 143 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: In Q4, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices will likely fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1,000 yuan, and the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1,000 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated widely. Short - term supply and demand are strong, with a de - stocking trend. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction and speculative demand [17]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of high - nickel iron was not provided. The Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700 yuan. The domestic and overseas inventories decreased by 1,194 tons and 1,104 tons respectively [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel has slightly decreased, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. With policy support from Indonesia, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [21].

12日有色宝长江A00铝21640～21680均价21660涨30,前三日均价21550,前五日均价21460 | 品名 | 区间 均价 | | 涨跌 | 日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | 21640-21680 | 21660 | +30 | 11-12 | | 铜 | 87020-87040 | 87030 | +80 | 11-12 | | 铝 | 17300-17400 | 17350 | +50 | 11-12 | | 0#锌 | 22120-23120 | 22620 | -30 | 11-12 | | 1#锌 | 22470-22570 22520 | | -30 | 11-12 | | 锡 | 289800-291800 290800 +3000 | | | 11-12 | | 境 | 118850-121850 120350 -1050 | | | 11-12 | 来源：世铝网 ...