Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is projected to achieve sales of 32 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% [1] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to reach 15.5 million units, with a penetration rate of 50% [1][3] - Concerns include the sustainability of sales post-subsidy reduction and China's global competitiveness in NEVs [1][4] Steel Industry - The steel industry will focus on supply-demand balance, industrial structure optimization, green low-carbon initiatives, and digital transformation [1][5] - Despite a long-term downturn in the real estate sector, steel companies are transitioning towards low-carbon metallurgy and new materials [5] - Demand for steel used in NEVs, stainless steel, special steel, and oriented silicon steel for the power industry is increasing [5] - The commencement of iron ore shipments from Guinea is expected to improve profitability in the steel sector due to falling iron ore prices [5] Building Materials and Light Industry - The building materials sector aims to develop green building materials, targeting revenues exceeding 300 billion yuan, focusing on steel structures and integrated forming [1][6] - The light industry is concentrating on smart home products, elderly and infant goods, fashion items, and sports products, driving consumer upgrades [1][6] Power Equipment Industry - The power equipment sector is a key focus for the upcoming year, with a growth target of around 6% and a goal to increase the localization rate to 7% [1][7] - Leading companies are expected to achieve annual revenues of 10% [7] - The sector is poised for growth due to increased market entry of new energy, heightened demand for grid safety, and rising overseas computing power needs [7] Electronic Information Industry - Investment opportunities in the electronic information sector for 2026 include large-scale AI application deployments and significant investments in national supercomputing centers [3][9] - The focus will shift from AI computing power to specific applications in media and gaming, indicating robust growth potential [9] Nonferrous Metals Industry - The nonferrous metals sector is expected to see significant development, with prices rebounding and potential capacity shortages anticipated in 2026 and beyond, which may drive prices higher [10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for gold prices, making the gold sector worth monitoring [10] Machinery and Petrochemical Industries - The machinery sector is expected to experience growth opportunities, particularly in automation investments [11] - The petrochemical industry is shifting towards new materials, including basic chemicals, as part of the new growth strategy [11] Capital Market Insights - The capital market in 2025 has experienced a notable correction, primarily due to skepticism regarding Nvidia's performance, leading to a significant downturn in the global computing industry [12] - A decline in risk appetite has made consumer goods stocks attractive due to their defensive characteristics [12] - It is suggested that now is an opportune time for investors to position themselves for 2026, particularly in cyclical sectors, as price increases are expected to continue [12]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.8 points (previous value: 128.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 6.1 points. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.9% (previous value: 4.1%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 5.2 points [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 41.4 (previous value: 41.5), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points, and the decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.5, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 9.1 points; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.6, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows from 0.9 points to 0.8 points; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.7, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows from 3.5 points to 3.3 points [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast of PPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%) [2][9]. - The high - frequency index of inventory is 163.1 (previous value: 163.0), with a year - on - year increase of 7.8 points, and the increase rate narrows [2][10]. - The high - frequency index of transportation is 132.8 (previous value: 132.6), with a year - on - year increase of 10.6 points, and the increase rate expands [2][10]. - The high - frequency index of financing is 242.8 (previous value: 242.2), with a year - on - year increase of 30.6 points, and the increase rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The fundamental high - frequency index is stable. Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - items are built [8]. Production - The electric furnace operating rate increases to 61.5% (previous value: 60.9%); the polyester operating rate is 89.7% (previous value: 89.0%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.1% (previous value: 73.7%); the full - tire operating rate is 61.3% (previous value: 64.5%); the PTA operating rate is 74.3% (previous value: 76.2%); the PX operating rate is 89.4% (previous value: 90.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 56.4 tons (previous value: 55.2 tons) [15]. Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increases to 28.5 million square meters (previous value: 22.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 0.5% (previous value: 10.1%) [26]. Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt continues to decline, reaching 24.8% (previous value: 29.0%) [43]. Exports - The CCFI index rebounds to 1122.8 points (previous value: 1094.0 points); the RJ/CRB index is 299.5 points (previous value: 303.9 points) [45]. Consumption - The average daily box office of movies rises to 83890,000 yuan (previous value: 54440,000 yuan) [54]. CPI - Food prices decline comprehensively. The average wholesale price of pork is 17.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [61]. PPI - The spot prices of copper and aluminum decline. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 834 yuan/ton (previous value: 832 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64 US dollars/barrel (unchanged from the previous value); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10741 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10841 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2775 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2855 US dollars/ton) [64]. Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities slightly declines to 40140,000 person - times (previous value: 40820,000 person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (unchanged from the previous value); the number of domestic flights is 12533 (previous value: 12347) [76]. Inventory - The electrolytic aluminum inventory increases to 141,000 tons (previous value: 122,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1648,000 tons (previous value: 1707,000 tons) [83]. Financing - The spread between bill and certificate of deposit narrows. The net financing of local government bonds is 126.7 billion yuan (previous value: 242.8 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 141.6 billion yuan (previous value: 31.4 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate is 0.68% (previous value: 0.60%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.95% (previous value: - 1.02%) [94].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the real estate market in China is under pressure, with expectations for policy changes to stimulate demand, including mortgage subsidies for new home buyers and tax rebates for borrowers [4] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to see a valuation recovery as the fundamentals of cyclical building materials companies have bottomed out [4] - Cement prices are expected to rise in the short term due to supply constraints from seasonal production policies, despite a recent decline in demand [5] - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand, with high inventory levels among intermediaries, and the need for policy changes to improve market conditions [6] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [6] - The consumer building materials segment has reached a profitability bottom, with strong price increase demands from companies following years of competition [6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement market prices have decreased recently, with a production volume of 148 million tons in October, down 15.8% year-on-year [10] - Demand is still under pressure, but there is a slight improvement expected in November due to project rush [10] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement [17] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, and the industry is closely monitoring policy changes for potential recovery [17] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is seeing price increases of 5%-10% due to collaborative pricing efforts among manufacturers, with strong demand from the AI sector [6] Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure expected, and companies are actively seeking price increases [6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 明年再通胀的需求动力来自于哪儿？ 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 44 期） 频率：每周 中小学生放春秋假就是创造消费场景，拉动居民消费的新尝试。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《静待花开——宏观与大类 资产周报》2025-11-23 2、《俄乌和谈再次启动？—— —国际时政周评》2025-11-23 3、《中小学生春秋假的政策意 义 — 显 微 镜 下 的 中 国 经 济 （2025 年第 43 期）》2025-11- 18 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 再通胀是明年国内经济和资本市场的核心逻辑。如果明年确能结束 2023 年 2 季度以来的价格弱势，那么当前股强债弱的格局将继续演绎。市场对于再 通胀的主要质疑在于，如果没有需求配合，仅靠反内卷在供给侧做文章，价 格回升并不能持 ...

Industrial Sector - Steel and building materials production has rebounded, while the operating rate of float glass has decreased[2] - The apparent demand for steel building materials has increased, while the operating rate for the textile polyester sector has shown seasonal weakness[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have slightly declined this week[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 8.7 percentage points compared to last week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.98% week-on-week, indicating a slight narrowing of the decline[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue increased by 74.7% year-on-year, with a daily average of 83.89 million yuan[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries has grown by 8.3% year-on-year, showing recovery in logistics[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 34.6% year-on-year, a decline of 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 7.4%[2] - The export container freight index rose by 2.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight increase in shipping costs[2] Prices - The agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.1% week-on-week, reflecting seasonal trends[2] - The industrial product prices weakened, with the South China industrial product index dropping by 1.9%[2]

板块题材上，军工装备、商业航天板块活跃，锂、海南板块调整。盘面上，军工装备板块走高，航天环宇20CM涨停，中 天火箭、中船防务等涨停封板。商业航天板块走强，航天长峰、上海港湾等数只个股涨停。锂板块全线走弱，盛新锂能、融捷 股份连续两个交易日跌停，天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、西藏矿业逼近跌停。海南板块冲高回落，海马汽车逼近跌停，凯撒旅业、海 南瑞泽跌超8%。 A股三大指数集体调整，截至午盘，沪指跌0.34%，深成指跌0.59%，创业板指跌0.77%，北证50指数跌0.12%，沪深京三市 半日成交额10325亿元，较上日缩量2849亿元。全市场超3200只个股上涨。 ...

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported on November 24, 2025, that there were significant price changes in the market for important production materials in circulation as of mid-November 2025, with 30 products experiencing price increases, 17 seeing declines, and 3 remaining stable [1][2]. Price Changes Summary - **Black Metals**: - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) rose to 3139.0 CNY, up by 20.5 CNY (0.7%) - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) increased to 3282.6 CNY, up by 10.9 CNY (0.3%) - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) decreased to 3393.7 CNY, down by 18.1 CNY (-0.5%) [3]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Electrolytic copper (1) reached 86636.3 CNY, up by 427.1 CNY (0.5%) - Aluminum ingot (A00) increased to 21660.0 CNY, up by 241.7 CNY (1.1%) - Zinc ingot (0) fell to 22483.8 CNY, down by 32.9 CNY (-0.1%) [3]. - **Chemical Products**: - Sulfuric acid (98%) rose to 866.9 CNY, up by 81.6 CNY (10.4%) - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) decreased to 846.0 CNY, down by 12.1 CNY (-1.4%) - Methanol (first grade) fell to 2038.5 CNY, down by 35.9 CNY (-1.7%) [3]. - **Petroleum and Natural Gas**: - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased to 4268.1 CNY, down by 55.8 CNY (-1.3%) - Gasoline (95 National VI) rose to 8050.6 CNY, up by 50.3 CNY (0.6%) - Diesel (0 National VI) increased to 6910.0 CNY, up by 115.4 CNY (1.7%) [3]. - **Coal**: - Anthracite (washed lump) remained stable at 950.3 CNY, up by 0.8 CNY (0.1%) - Shanxi mixed coal (5000 kcal) rose to 736.1 CNY, up by 32.9 CNY (4.7%) [4]. - **Non-metallic Building Materials**: - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bagged) decreased to 345.2 CNY, down by 9.8 CNY (-2.8%) - Float glass (4.8/5mm) fell to 1175.9 CNY, down by 24.7 CNY (-2.1%) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Rice (Japonica) reached 3913.3 CNY, up by 3.6 CNY (0.1%) - Cotton (white cotton grade three) decreased to 14448.8 CNY, down by 37.0 CNY (-0.3%) [4]. - **Agricultural Production Materials**: - Compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, NPK content 45%) rose to 3216.0 CNY, up by 67.3 CNY (2.1%) [4]. - **Forest Products**: - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased to 14800.0 CNY, up by 323.6 CNY (2.2%) - Pulp (imported needle pulp) reached 5572.4 CNY, up by 52.4 CNY (0.9%) [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate market is currently experiencing a downturn, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen more than the national average, negatively impacting market confidence [1][2][4] - Despite a stable overall performance in the first half of 2025, prices have accelerated downward since the third quarter, with a significant decline in sales and investment data in October [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the real estate market was stable, with good sales of new and second-hand homes, but began to decline in the third quarter [3] - The average price drop in second-hand homes across 70 cities has raised concerns about market confidence [4] Policy Environment - Administrative easing policies have not fully reversed the market downturn; the main expectation is a reduction in mortgage rates [5] - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) saw only a slight decrease in 2025, limiting banks' ability to lower rates further due to net interest margin pressures [5] - There are discussions about implementing fiscal subsidies to alleviate the burden of mortgage loans, which could cost between 50 to 60 billion yuan annually [6] Stock Market Outlook - There is a relatively optimistic outlook for the real estate stock market, as policy advancements could improve market liquidity and company performance [7] - Companies with low debt pressure, ample cash flow, and attractive valuations are recommended for investment, particularly in Hong Kong real estate and commercial properties [7] Company-Specific Insights: Beike (贝壳找房) - Beike's revenue is affected by the price decline in first-tier cities, but its brokerage business is expected to show resilience as market demand recovers [8] - The company anticipates a net profit increase from approximately 5 billion yuan in 2025 to 7 billion yuan in 2026, driven by improved efficiency, AI technology application, and profit release from home decoration and rental businesses [9][11] - Beike's current stock price has significant upside potential, estimated at 40%-50% based on its cash reserves and low P/E ratio [12] Additional Insights Related Sectors - The kitchen appliance and integrated stove sectors are closely tied to the real estate cycle and have faced valuation pressures due to market weakness [13][14] - The central air conditioning sector is also linked to real estate, with potential for valuation recovery if market expectations shift [15] - White and black goods sectors are less correlated with real estate cycles, relying more on their own industry dynamics [16] Building Materials Market - The building materials industry has seen fluctuations in volume and price since 2021, with signs of stabilization in certain segments like coatings [17][18] - Future demand in the building materials sector is expected to decline but at a slower rate, with potential price stabilization due to supply-side adjustments [19] - Investment opportunities are seen in the renovation of existing homes, particularly in coatings and board materials, with a projected 5% compound annual growth rate in renovation area from 2025 to 2026 [21] Risk Assessment - Risks related to accounts receivable and asset impairment from the real estate sector have been effectively controlled, although attention is needed for potential asset devaluation from unsold properties [20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong market positions and potential for recovery, such as Beike, and sectors like coatings and engineering materials that are less affected by the real estate downturn [22][24]

Summary of Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview Oil and Gas Chemical Industry - Capital expenditures in the oil and gas chemical industry are expected to decline by 20% in 2024 and by another 10% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a reduction in new capacity which will help improve supply-demand balance [1][2][3] - Seasonal demand is expected to remain weak due to the downturn in real estate and related downstream sectors, with no significant recovery anticipated before the next Spring Festival [2] - Industry self-discipline meetings have led to price increases for products like organic silicon and DMAC, with prices rising by 3.9% to 8,650 RMB/ton [3] Lithium and Related Materials - Demand for lithium-related solvents such as EC, DMC, and DEC is strong, with price increases of 47.8%, 10%, and 5.1% respectively, driven by supply-demand tightness rather than price coordination [1][3] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged to 92,000 RMB/ton, with futures exceeding 100,000 RMB/ton, driven by concentrated procurement in the electric vehicle sector and supply constraints from major producers [2][9] Coal Market - The coal market is expected to see stable but weak demand in 2024, influenced by economic growth rates and the substitution effect from renewable energy sources [4] - The average coal price is projected to stabilize around 750-800 RMB/ton, which is favorable for coal companies despite macroeconomic pressures [4] - In 2025, coal prices have seen significant declines, particularly due to price cuts by coal companies to ensure long-term contracts with power companies [5] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is negatively impacted by the downturn in real estate, with demand and prices under pressure [6] - New project starts are expected to continue declining in 2026, although the rate of decline may slow [6] - The demand for coatings is relatively strong due to renovation needs, while the demand for gypsum boards and pipes remains under pressure [6] Steel Industry - The steel industry faces challenges with insufficient reduction efforts, with a 50 million ton reduction target largely unmet [7] - The cement sector is also experiencing significant demand declines, with a 15% year-on-year drop in early November [7] Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from global monetary easing and emerging industries, with demand accelerating [8] - Copper supply is tightening due to production cuts from major mines and increased demand from clean energy sectors [8] - The aluminum sector has reached capacity limits, with high operating rates and increasing demand from electric vehicles and photovoltaics [8] Tungsten Market - Tungsten prices have reached record highs, with a cumulative increase of 132% this year, driven by domestic supply constraints and increased demand [13] - The global tungsten supply growth is expected to remain under pressure for the next 3-5 years due to declining domestic ore grades and environmental regulations [13][14] Key Insights - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with potential for further monetary policy easing as fiscal space is constrained [21] - The need for core economic stimulus measures, particularly in employment and income, is highlighted as essential for recovery [21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries, particularly focusing on oil and gas, lithium, coal, construction materials, steel, nonferrous metals, and tungsten.