1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran continues to intensify, leading to an increase in energy prices. The US core PCE data and employment are basically in line with expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts and causing an increase in US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the 301 investigation raises trade risks. - In China, the narrowing of PPI and fiscal stimulus have improved corporate financing demand. Due to energy self - sufficiency and reserve advantages, and the narrowing of the tariff gap with other economies facing the US, China's export boom is expected to continue. - In the medium to long term, the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Iran's Supreme Leader warns of not giving up revenge, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and a potential $200 - per - barrel oil price; the US is deploying more troops. The US will initiate a 301 investigation against 16 economies including China. The International Energy Agency's 32 member countries will release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. The central bank will conduct a scaled - down renewal of a 6 - month repurchase agreement, with a 500 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on March 16, a reduction of 100 billion yuan. Multinational pharmaceutical companies are investing in China, with Eli Lilly planning a $3 - billion investment over 10 years [11]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0, down from 49.3. CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 1.0% month - on - month, with core CPI up 1.8%. PPI in February increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. In February 2026, M1 growth was 5.9% and M2 growth was 9.0%. The social financing increment in the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 316.2 billion yuan. Exports in January - February 2026 increased by 21.8% year - on - year in US dollar terms. The US core PCE price index in January increased by 3.1% year - on - year [11]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: This week, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate have both increased, the credit spread has slightly decreased, and liquidity is abundant [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as the valuation is at a medium - low level and IM has a long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70% to 4095.45 points; the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.76% to 14280.78 points; the ChiNext Index increased by 2.51% to 3310.28 points, etc. [16]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: For example, IF当月 increased by 0.18% to 4658.0 points, and its trading volume was 439 billion yuan; IH当月 decreased by 1.15% to 2957.0 points, etc. [17]. 3.3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%. In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0. In December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, and the investment growth rate was - 3.8%. Exports from January - February 2026 increased by 21.8% year - on - year in US dollar terms [35][38][41]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 3.4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate are presented in the report. On March 13, the weighted average R007 rate was 1.5033%, up 1.13 basis points from last week. On March 16, a 500 - billion - yuan repurchase operation will be carried out, with 600 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase agreements expiring in March, a reduction of 100 billion yuan [48][52]. - **Credit Environment**: In February 2026, M1 growth was 5.9% and M2 growth was 9.0%. The social financing increment from January - February 2026 was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 316.2 billion yuan [60]. 3.5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This week, about 22.618 billion new shares of equity - oriented funds were established. The margin trading balance in the two markets increased by 18.3 billion yuan, with the latest balance at 2.645929 trillion yuan. The scale of each ETF decreased slightly [67][70]. - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 676.4 million yuan in holdings, and the number of IPOs was 1 [73]. 3.6. Valuation - **Price - Earnings Ratio (TTM)**: The PE of SSE 50 is 11.49, CSI 300 is 14.21, CSI 500 is 37.11, and CSI 1000 is 49.88. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (LF)**: The PB of SSE 50 is 1.27, CSI 300 is 1.50, CSI 500 is 2.57, and CSI 1000 is 2.68 [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was affected by multiple factors, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while the futures market continued to fluctuate. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the market fluctuations, with low trading volume [8]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the seasonal supply off - season, and raw material prices are firm. Qingdao Port's bonded warehouses continued to accumulate inventory, while general trade warehouses reduced inventory, resulting in a slight increase in total inventory. Overseas is in the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar standard rubber is decreasing. The situation in the Middle East is tense, synthetic rubber prices are rising, and tire enterprises are resuming production after the holiday, increasing the buying volume of natural rubber, and the出库 volume of Qingdao Port warehouses has increased, with the inventory accumulation rate narrowing significantly compared to the previous period [8]. - This week, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly week - on - week, and the production schedules of tire enterprises have basically returned to normal levels, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term [8]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,650 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was affected by multiple factors, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and traders changed positions. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the market. The trading volume was light [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, and raw material prices are firm. Qingdao Port's inventory situation is complex, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses reducing inventory. Overseas supply is decreasing, and the demand from tire enterprises is increasing. The operating rates of tire enterprises have increased, but there are uncertainties in exports [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,650 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract between 13,300 - 14,000 [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 0.42% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber fell by 1.84% week - on - week [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided in the text. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of March 13, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - number rubber was - 145 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 13, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 120,840 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 49,291 tons, a decrease of 1,108 tons from last week [25]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of March 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Number Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of March 12, the basis of 20 - number rubber was 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: As of March 13, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 71 (+2) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 58 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the closed - cutting period [39][42]. - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [48]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [51]. - **Downstream - Tire Operating Rates**: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [54]. - **Downstream - Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire export volume was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [57]. - **Downstream - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared to January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared to 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. It is expected that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market showed a narrow and upward trend. The average price in Shandong remained flat week-on-week, but the international urea price rose sharply due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, driving up the domestic futures price [8]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased, and the output is expected to fluctuate little. Agricultural demand has decreased, but some dealers have replenished their stocks. The开工 rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the industrial consumption of urea has risen. The inventory of urea enterprises has declined, and the de-stocking trend is expected to continue in the short term [8]. - Affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the international price is at a high level, and the domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the factory quotes are relatively stable due to the guidance price [8]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly and strongly. By Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1840 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged week - on - week. Most urea factory quotes reached the guidance price level and remained stable. The international price increase due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East drove up the domestic futures price [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic urea production may fluctuate slightly. Agricultural demand has decreased, but dealers' replenishment and increased industrial consumption from compound fertilizer plants are observed. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The domestic market will fluctuate strongly, but factory quotes will be stable due to the guidance price [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 and 1950 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract rose by 3.22% this week [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 13, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 23 [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 13, there were 8055 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 5195 compared with last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of March 12, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [26]. - **Foreign Price**: As of March 12, the FOB price of Chinese urea was 565 US dollars/ton, an increase of 84 US dollars/ton compared with last week [30]. - **Basis**: As of March 12, the urea basis was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Coal Price**: As of March 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [38]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of March 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of March 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 153.76 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the capacity utilization rate was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period [40]. - **Inventory**: As of March 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 18.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons, a decrease of 0.53% week - on - week. As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.76 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.79% [44]. - **Export**: In December 2025, urea exports were 27.83 tons, a decrease of 53.75% month - on - month [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points from the previous period. The开工 rate is expected to continue to rise in the next period [52]. - **Melamine**: As of March 12, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 53.35%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from last week [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: After the conclusion of the National Two Sessions, the policy side is mostly favorable, but geopolitical risks persist. Stock indices may fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should wait patiently for stabilization signals. The repeated escalation of the US - Iran situation has pushed up inflation expectations due to rising oil prices, suppressing expectations of Fed rate cuts, and gold has entered a high - level consolidation pattern, with the risk of a breakdown downward [35]. - Medium - to long - term: Stock index valuations will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. The stock index will maintain a wide - range consolidation in the medium term. The stimulative effect of US tax cuts on the economy will gradually emerge, and there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. From January to February, imports increased 19.8% year - on - year, and exports increased 21.8% year - on - year, the highest growth rate since February 2022 [6]. - In the US in February, non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year, with the increase remaining the same as the previous month [20]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led to rising prices of international crude oil and chemical commodities, which helps repair the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face high operating pressure, with the long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits, and they have to reduce production and inventory [14]. - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly to 2634.2 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 101.1 billion yuan [17]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the COMEX gold inventory in New York has continued to decline, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the current major contradiction lies in the external market. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has reignited inflation concerns. Although the panic has been released, the stock index will gradually return to the domestic fundamentals, but geopolitical uncertainties remain. During the performance disclosure period, market sentiment is expected to be cautious. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and be more optimistic about IF and IC with stronger profit certainty and more relevance to new - quality productivity [12]. - For treasury bonds, inflation concerns have suppressed the bond market. The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and the rise in oil prices has led to inflation concerns. The market is affected by factors such as export data and regulatory policies. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening strategy, and there may be a small - scale rebound in the bond market next week [36][51][93]. - For shipping indices, the shipping market is affected by the Middle East situation. Although the supply of container shipping capacity is high, the slowdown of the Red Sea re - navigation plan can relieve the pressure. The short - term geopolitical conflict may cause the index to strengthen, but it may also experience a significant correction. It is advisable to short the off - season contracts near the delivery period and go long on the peak - season contracts [111]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Stock Index Market Review - At the beginning of the year, the A - share market had a "good start" due to factors such as the appreciation of the RMB and the rise of the Hong Kong stock market. However, regulatory measures to cool down the market led to a weakening of market sentiment. Subsequently, factors such as the nomination of the next Fed chairman, the US - Iran conflict, and the two sessions affected the market. From March 9th to 13th, the A - share market showed a shrinking and consolidating pattern, with different performances among major indices [7][8][9]. - The current major contradiction is the external market. The US - Iran conflict has escalated, and inflation concerns have resurfaced. Domestically, there are no unexpected policies from the two sessions. The trading volume in the two markets has shrunk, and the stock index will gradually return to the domestic fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and be more optimistic about IF and IC during the performance disclosure period [12]. 成交持仓分析 - This week, the trading volume of stock index futures has shrunk. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 105,300, 44,500, 152,200, and 202,100 lots respectively, with changes of - 23,200, - 16,000, - 38,900, and - 29,800 lots compared with last week. - The positions of stock index futures have generally decreased. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 274,000, 106,700, 296,300, and 377,400 lots respectively, with changes of - 8,300, - 4,400, - 13,400, and - 8,700 lots compared with last week [13]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - **基差**: This week, the basis has narrowed. The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are - 11.14, 0.15, - 26.0, and - 27.29 points respectively, with a narrowing of 3.30, 2.85, 11.73, and 9.77 points compared with last week. The annualized basis rates of the corresponding contracts are - 12.27%, 0.27%, - 16.23%, and - 17.09% respectively [18]. - **跨期价差**: As of March 13th, the spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are all negative. The spreads of IF and IH have narrowed, while those of IC and IM have widened. The spreads between the current - quarter and current - month contracts are also negative, with different changes in each variety [20][21]. - **跨品种价差**: The performance of large - cap stocks is relatively better, especially the CSI 300 index. The ratios of CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 500, CSI 300/CSI 1000, and SSE 50/CSI 1000 are at different historical percentile levels, with corresponding changes [24]. 行业板块概况 - **CSI 300 and CSI 500 sub - industry trends**: In the CSI 300, the utility, energy, and industrial sectors led the rise, while the materials, real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. In the CSI 500, the utility, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, while the raw materials, information, and optional sectors led the decline [27]. - **First - level industry gains and losses**: The coal, power equipment, and building decoration sectors led the rise, while the national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, and comprehensive sectors led the decline [29]. 估值比较 As of March 13th, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 14.2607, 11.5251, 37.6349, and 50.5938 times respectively, and are at the 86.38%, 80.09%, 87.98%, and 83.62% percentile levels in the past ten years [31]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury bond futures market**: Inflation concerns have suppressed the bond market. The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and the rise in oil prices has led to inflation concerns. The export data has exceeded expectations, and regulatory policies have also affected the market. The performance of futures is weaker than that of spot bonds, and there is no positive arbitrage space for each contract. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening strategy [36][39][51]. - **Bond spot market**: This week, most of the spot yields of treasury bonds have increased. The yields of ultra - long - term bonds have risen significantly. The yields of US treasury bonds have also increased across the board [65]. - **Funding situation**: At the beginning of the month, the funding pressure is not large, and the central bank has mainly carried out net repurchases. As the tax period approaches, the funding situation has tightened marginally [73][78]. - **Interest rate derivatives**: This week, the yields of most swap varieties have declined, and the liquidity expectation is stable [85]. Market Analysis - **Recent market logic**: The PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and was weaker than expected. However, the high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and the overseas export demand was still strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The short - term situation in the US - Iran is unclear, which has increased inflation expectations and brought liquidity shocks. It is necessary to pay attention to the upcoming economic data [88]. - **This week's fundamental situation**: The inflation and import - export data in February and January - February have exceeded expectations, partly due to the Spring Festival misalignment. The inflation has improved significantly, and the PPI may turn positive. The export has shown strong resilience, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance this year [89][90]. - **Next week's bond market outlook**: The self - regulatory management of inter - bank deposits may release a batch of allocation demand. The tax - period disturbance and the release of January - February economic data next week may be short - term negative factors, and there may be a small - scale rebound [93]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar Next week, important economic data such as China's January - February economic data and the Fed's interest - rate decision will be released, and the tax - filing deadline in March will also be reached [95]. Shipping Index Market Review The shipping index has fluctuated significantly due to the rapid change in the Middle East situation. The index adjusted at the beginning of the week but then recovered. The container shipping futures on the European route have all risen this week, with the largest increases in the near - month contracts of May and June [96]. 集运市场情况 - **Spot market**: The transportation demand on the European route has been flat and not significantly affected by the Middle East situation, but the supply - chain shock has pushed up the freight rate. The quotes for April have been significantly increased, but the cargo volume is still light [103]. - **Supply - demand fundamentals of container shipping**: In terms of supply, the container shipping capacity in Europe in March is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential capacity is also increasing. The actual capacity has decreased slightly in March but will increase in April. The Red Sea re - navigation plan has been postponed, which can relieve the pressure on the European route. In terms of demand, the overseas demand is still strong, but the inflation in Europe may lead to a weakening of macro - demand [107][108]. Market Outlook The container shipping market is still in the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the Red Sea re - navigation plan has been postponed, the supply of container shipping capacity is still high. The short - term geopolitical conflict may cause the index to strengthen, but it may also experience a significant correction. It is advisable to short the off - season contracts near the delivery period and go long on the peak - season contracts [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report summarizes the weekly trends of the domestic futures market from March 9 - 13, 2026, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, non - ferrous metals and precious metals, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures. It analyzes the price movements, supply - demand fundamentals, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each sector. Summary by Directory I. Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price was oscillating strongly. The futures price had a weekly decline of 0.29%, closing at 2386 yuan/ton. The spot price is expected to correct in the short term, and the 2605 contract is short - term weak [6]. - **Pig**: The spot price was oscillating weakly. The 2605 futures contract had a weekly decline of 0.09%, closing at 11150 yuan/ton. The pig price may remain low in the short term [7]. - **Egg**: The spot price first fell and then rose. The 2605 futures contract had a weekly increase of 1.3%, closing at 3433 yuan/500kg. The egg price is short - term stable, but the supply pressure is significant [8]. - **Jujube**: The futures price was oscillating strongly. The CJ605 contract is in an upward channel. Consider short - selling after the upward momentum weakens [8]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar was running strongly. The domestic sugar supply - demand is neutral to bearish, but influenced by geopolitical conflicts and funds, the lower support is strong. Recommend a bullish attitude in the short term [8]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, suppressing the price increase. In the long term, the supply is expected to shrink. The short - term price may oscillate between 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [9]. - **Apple**: The decline of the main contract narrowed, and it is in a game between demand suppression and high delivery costs. It may return to a high - level oscillation pattern [10]. - **Log**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally increasing. In the medium term, the real - estate new construction is weak, dragging down the demand [10]. II. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Gold and Silver**: They slightly rose and then fell, showing a horizontal oscillation. Next week, pay attention to the support levels of 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 20500 yuan/kg for Shanghai silver [11]. - **Alumina**: The 2605 contract rose this week. The supply is expected to be loose, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate at low prices [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2604 contract rose this week. The supply is tightening, but the short - term downstream support is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2605 contract was strong and oscillating. The supply is loose, but the geopolitical premium remains. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish in the long term [13][14]. III. Black Sector - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They oscillated and rose, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened. The rebar demand has started, and the hot - rolled coil supply is shrinking while the demand is rising. There is still upward space if the demand recovers as expected [15][16]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rose this week. The iron - water production decreased, and the steel - mill inventory is at a low level. The port inventory is high, suppressing the price. It is expected to have upward space in the medium and short term [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They rose this week. The supply is loose, and the short - term demand growth is limited. They are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [19]. IV. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: It and related products rose. The release of oil reserves did not solve the supply gap. It is expected to be strong, and short - term operation or waiting and seeing is recommended [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It oscillated in a range. The price fell due to geopolitical conflicts and then was supported. It is expected to oscillate between 150,000 - 170,000 yuan [21][22]. - **Methanol and Urea**: Methanol prices rose significantly, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. Urea prices are expected to be strong in the range, with a price range of 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton [23]. - **Polyester**: The cost has increased, and the industrial chain is significantly differentiated. It is recommended to long the near - month contracts of good - fundamental varieties and short the far - month contracts of weak - fundamental varieties [24]. - **Rubber Series**: - **Natural Rubber**: It oscillated strongly. The overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, and the domestic demand is recovering. The short - term bottom support exists [26]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The price rose, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the influence of the Middle - East conflict on raw material supply [27]. V. Financial Futures Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index first rose and then fell. It is recommended to reduce the long - position of stock index futures and increase the proportion of CSI 300, or hedge risks through short - selling CSI 1000 or buying put options [28][29]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of the main contracts fell this week. They may oscillate weakly under the influence of the Iranian situation and high oil prices [29]. Summary of Index Performance - The Nanhua Energy Index rose 14.12%, the Nanhua Petrochemical Index rose 10.77%, the Nanhua Coal - based Chemical Index rose 8.78%, the Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index rose 5.31%, the Nanhua Building Materials Index rose 3.51%, the Nanhua Black Index rose 2.69%, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell 0.11%, the Nanhua Economic Crops Index fell 0.24%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell 1.52% [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly strong" rating for the rebar market [1] Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is expected to be shockingly strong in the short term, with short - and medium - term moving averages showing strength. The future trend depends on the recovery of terminal demand, especially in real estate and infrastructure. If demand recovers, prices may rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will suppress prices [1][6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: The rebar main contract reduced its position by 49,467 lots on Friday, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, reaching 919,808 lots. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3120, and the medium - term 30 - day moving average was around 3092, and the 60 - day moving average was around 3108, indicating short - and medium - term strengthening [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream HRB400E 20mm rebar was quoted at 3250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 108 yuan/ton to the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply: In the week of March 13, 2026, rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was short - term resumption of production, but the long - term trend was still contraction [3] - Demand: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and its sustainability needed verification [3] - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons; total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. There was high - level inventory accumulation and great pressure to destock [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation was at a low level, and geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Market expectations for infrastructure and real estate support increased, and sentiment received phased support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6] - Bearish factors: Persistent low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow destocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6] Short - term View Summary - The rebar main contract opened higher on Friday and then moved shockingly strong. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. Short - term support was near the lower gap, and resistance was at the previous platform [6] - After the holiday, the supply side recovered slightly, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, which supported prices to some extent. For the demand side, real estate policies were mainly for destocking and stability, with limited incremental demand space, which restricted the upside [6] - Future focus should be on the apparent demand data to see if it can continue to recover and drive inventory destocking. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation in real estate and infrastructure [6]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices oscillated with slight corrections. The risk of the long - term Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased, which may lead the global economy into stagflation, restricting the central bank's monetary easing space and suppressing stock prices from both corporate profit expectations and capital liquidity. However, the market has basically digested the geopolitical risks, and its marginal impact is gradually weakening, with the market ultimately returning to its fundamentals [3]. - Currently, the policy continues to provide support in the aggregate and focuses on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation in the structure. The continuous positive policies form the main logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of stock indices [3]. - In the short term, the negative impact of geopolitical risks and the continuous positive policies are intertwined. Future attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation, the effectiveness of policy implementation, and the disclosure of listed companies' financial reports. Overall, stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. - In the options market, since the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of stock indices still exists, a bull spread strategy can be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Related Charts - **上证50ETF期权 (SSE 50ETF Options)**: - The report presents charts of the SSE 50ETF's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [5][6]. - **上交所300ETF期权 (SSE 300ETF Options)**: - Charts include the SSE 300ETF's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [7][8][9]. - **深交所300ETF期权 (SZSE 300ETF Options)**: - There are charts of the SZSE 300ETF's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [19][20][21]. - **沪深300股指期权 (CSI 300 Stock Index Options)**: - The report shows the CSI 300 index's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [31][32][33]. - **中证1000股指期权 (CSI 1000 Stock Index Options)**: - Charts cover the CSI 1000 index's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [41][42][43]. - **上交所500ETF期权 (SSE 500ETF Options)**: - There are charts of the SSE 500ETF's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [52][53][54]. - **深交所500ETF期权 (SZSE 500ETF Options)**: - The report presents charts of the SZSE 500ETF's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [65][66][67]. - **上证50股指期权 (SSE 50 Stock Index Options)**: - Charts include the SSE 50 index's price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market increased significantly week - on - week, with the spot price ranging from 13,850 to 16,100 yuan/ton. The supply price and market price of cis - butadiene rubber generally rose significantly this week, but there was wide - range volatility due to the uncertainty of the news on crude oil supply [7]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises face uncertainties such as reduced raw material supply and a sharp rise in prices. Some production enterprises have limited salable resources, and some enterprises control inventory levels cautiously to wait and see. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises increased slightly this week, and the inventory of trading enterprises changed little [7]. - There is no substantial expectation of easing the crude oil supply problem. The overall supply of butadiene is tight. Cis - butadiene rubber production faces high costs and raw material supply shortages. It is not ruled out that some production enterprises will passively reduce the device load or even carry out maintenance. It is expected that the short - term supply reduction will drive the inventory down [7]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly week - on - week. The production scheduling of each tire enterprise has basically returned to the normal level, which supports the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The domestic and foreign sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, and the overall shipment performance is average. The domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises are active, and the inventory removal rhythm has accelerated. There are still many uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and there are still export resistances in some regions of tire enterprises. Enterprises will flexibly adjust the production scheduling ratio of domestic and foreign sales according to their own order situation, and there is a short - term expectation of a slight decline [7]. - Due to the uncertainty risk of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market increased significantly week - on - week, with the spot price ranging from 13,850 to 16,100 yuan/ton. The supply price and market price of cis - butadiene rubber generally rose significantly this week, but there was wide - range volatility due to the uncertainty of the news on crude oil supply [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises face uncertainties such as reduced raw material supply and a sharp rise in prices. The short - term supply reduction is expected to drive the inventory down. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly week - on - week, but there are still export resistances in some regions of tire enterprises, and there is a short - term expectation of a slight decline [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the uncertainty risk of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 7.03% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not provided in the content - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 13, the 5 - 6 spread of butadiene rubber was 275 [17]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of March 13, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 22,130 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons compared with last week [20]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of March 12, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was reported at 15,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. - **Basis**: As of March 12, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 470 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **External Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of March 12, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 977.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 200.87 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was reported at 1,000 US dollars/ton, an increase of 90 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28]. - **Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of March 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.7%, a decrease of 3.58% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 8,100 tons compared with last week [31]. 3.3.2. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization - **Production**: In February 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons compared with last month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. In February, 3 cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises (1 Sinopec and 2 PetroChina) stopped production for maintenance, involving an annual processing capacity of 130,000 tons; 1 enterprise (1 Sinopec) resumed production, involving an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons [34]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of March 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 79.98%, a decrease of 1.64% compared with last week [34]. 3.3.3. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit - As of March 12, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 2,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 872 yuan/ton compared with last week [37]. 3.3.4. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of March 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 44,430 tons, an increase of 1,010 tons compared with last week [41]. - **Manufacturer and Trader Inventory**: As of March 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 35,350 tons, an increase of 950 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 9,080 tons, an increase of 60 tons compared with last week [41]. 3.4. Downstream Situation 3.4.1. Tire Operating Rate - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points. The production scheduling of domestic tire enterprises has basically returned to the normal level, but there are still export resistances in some regions, and there is a short - term expectation of a slight decline [44]. 3.4.2. Tire Export Volume - In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire export volume was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices showed mixed performance this week, with the Shenzhen market generally outperforming the Shanghai market. The four stock index futures also showed differentiation, with only IF rising slightly. The market was greatly affected by overseas geopolitical news. Due to the continuous rise in oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict, global equity assets faced significant callback pressure under the re-inflation expectation, and A-shares were also significantly affected. In addition, this week's domestic inflation and import and export data were released, showing a significant rebound in prices and external demand, and the positive macro fundamentals provided some support to the market. The trading activity in the market decreased slightly compared with last week [9][15]. - The inflation level in China in February exceeded expectations, and the continuous fermentation of the Iran situation strengthened the marginal expectation of imported inflation. The rhythm of the year-on-year return to positive of PPI in the future will accelerate, and the inflation factor will put pressure on the adjustment of the bond market. In addition, under the interbank deposit pricing self - regulatory mechanism, more than 10 trillion yuan of deposits may see an interest rate cut, which is expected to drive the interest rate center to decline. With the interweaving of long and short factors, interest rates will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [9]. - The energy and chemical products and oils rose under the cost support and linkage effect of the rising crude oil, while the non - ferrous metals and precious metals were weakened by the strengthening of the US dollar under the inflation expectation. Since the increase of crude oil and energy and chemical products was greater than that of metals, the commodity index is expected to remain in a relatively strong trend [9]. - The rebound of oil prices led to an increase in inflation concerns. The US dollar maintained a relatively strong operation under the support of risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of US bond yields. The euro was supported by the expectation of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike but was still suppressed by the strong US dollar environment; the Japanese yen was dragged down by policy differences and energy pressure and showed a weak overall performance [9][13]. - China's exports improved more than expected due to the Spring Festival dislocation and the better - than - expected recovery of external demand. In US dollar terms, China's exports from January to February increased by 21.8% year - on - year, far exceeding the Bloomberg expectation of 7.2%. It is expected that China's exports will still maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026, but the year - on - year growth rate in March is expected to decline significantly due to the dislocation effect [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.19%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 0.18%. The A - share market was affected by overseas geopolitical news, and the trading activity decreased slightly. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year government bond yield rose 0.17%, with a weekly change of +0.30BP, and the main 10 - year government bond futures fell 0.28%. Due to inflation and other factors, the bond market is under adjustment pressure, but the interest rate may decline. The allocation suggestion is to operate within a range [9]. - **Commodity**: The Wind commodity index fell 2.06%, and the CSI commodity futures price index rose 2.92%. The commodity index is expected to be strong. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.80%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell 0.85%. The US dollar is strong in the short term, the euro is relatively resilient, and the yen is weak. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9][13]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Diplomatic**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated China's position on the US - Israel's unauthorized military action against Iran, emphasizing the respect for the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Gulf Arab countries [17]. - **Technology and Finance**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued suggestions on preventing the security risks of the "Lobster" open - source intelligent agent, and at least 20 securities firms issued internal compliance reminders [17]. - **Legislation**: In 2026, relevant laws will be formulated and revised in the fields of the socialist market economy and finance, and legislative research in the field of artificial intelligence will be strengthened [17]. - **Stock Market Reform**: The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market, adding a more accurate and inclusive listing standard and promoting a series of measures [17]. - **Geopolitical and Economic**: Trump said the war with Iran would not end this week; the EU warned that the Iran conflict might push the inflation rate above 3% and affect economic growth; the IEA released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves; the US proposed new regulations on AI chip exports [19]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In February, the CPI annual rate was 1.3% (expected 0.8%, previous value 0.2%), the PPI annual rate was - 0.9% (expected - 1.2%, previous value - 1.4%), the export annual rate in US dollars was 39.6%, and the import annual rate in US dollars was 13.8% [20]. - **US**: In February, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4% (expected 2.4%, previous value 2.4%), the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.5% (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.5%), and the initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 were 2.13 million (expected 2.15 million, previous value 2.14 million) [20]. - **Germany**: In January, the seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate was - 0.5% (expected 1%, previous value - 1%), the seasonally - adjusted trade balance was 21.2 billion euros (expected 15.7 billion euros, previous value 17.2 billion euros), and in February, the CPI monthly rate final value was 0.2% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%) [20]. - **France**: In January, the trade balance was - 1.843 billion euros (previous value - 4.298 billion euros) [20]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **March 16, 2026**: At 21:15, the US February industrial output monthly rate (previous value 0.7%) [81]. - **March 17, 2026**: At 18:00, the eurozone March ZEW economic sentiment index (previous value 39.4%); at 22:00, the US February pending home sales index monthly rate (previous value - 0.8%) [81]. - **March 18, 2026**: At 18:00, the eurozone February CPI annual rate final value (previous value 1.9%); at 20:30, the US February PPI annual rate (previous value 2.9%) [81]. - **March 19, 2026**: At 00:00, the Japanese central bank target interest rate until March 19 (previous value 0.75%); at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) until March 18 (previous value 3.75%); at 15:00, the UK February unemployment rate (previous value 4.4%); at 20:00, the UK central bank interest rate decision until March 19 (previous value 3.75%); at 21:15, the eurozone European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate until March 19 (previous value 2%) [81]. - **March 20, 2026**: At 09:00, China's one - year loan prime rate until March 20 (previous value 3%); at 15:00, the German February PPI monthly rate (previous value - 0.6%) [81].