Group 1 - Glass futures surged significantly, with the main contract reaching 1232.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% [1] - As of July 24, the daily production of float glass rose to 159,000 tons, marking a four-month high, while weekly production increased by 0.09% to 1,108,100 tons, a three-month high [2] - Hainan Development announced that its subsidiary, Haikong Sanxin, has recently reduced production by shutting down a 550-ton furnace and five deep processing production lines, raising concerns about the ability to procure sufficient glass raw materials for processing [2] Group 2 - New Lake Futures indicated that short-term macro policy sentiment has cooled, leading to significant market adjustments, with expectations of wide fluctuations in the future [3] - Donghai Futures reported that while glass daily melting volume saw a slight increase, supply pressure is growing due to the off-season, and there are expectations of production cuts in the glass industry [3] - Profit margins for float glass have increased week-on-week, but the market remains cautious due to potential shifts in trading logic and a return to fundamental conditions [3]

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Industry Overview Upstream - Non-metallic: Glass prices continue to rebound [3] - Non-ferrous metals: Prices fluctuate [3] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PX has declined [3] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in third-tier cities have seasonally declined [4] - Services: The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [4] Meso-level Event Overview Production Industry - Sino-US talks have postponed trade conflicts. From July 28th to 29th, the Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm, Sweden. According to the consensus, the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures will be extended for 90 days [1] - NVIDIA co-founder and CEO Huang Renxun believes that the wealth creation ability of artificial intelligence (AI) will exceed that of the Internet in the next 5 years [1] Service Industry - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for the global economic growth rate for this year and next year to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively. It has also significantly raised China's economic growth rate for this year to 4.8% [2] Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year | Quarterly | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting | 85.59 | 77.83 | 57.09 | 47.35 | 49.07 | 0.70 | | Mining | 33.06 | 46.36 | 37.35 | 27.48 | 31.05 | 2.00 | | Chemicals | 68.16 | 62.06 | 49.18 | 42.09 | 44.87 | 1.00 | | Steel | 37.13 | 55.10 | 47.48 | 37.99 | 41.94 | 6.50 | | Non-ferrous Metals | 39.26 | 56.54 | 49.42 | 40.23 | 42.58 | 5.30 | | Electronics | 52.58 | 70.94 | 54.62 | 43.31 | 42.35 | 0.00 | | Automobiles | 57.44 | 50.32 | 39.92 | 29.66 | 34.14 | 1.20 | | Household Appliances | 36.95 | 47.58 | 47.10 | 39.12 | 43.09 | 8.10 | | Food and Beverage | 36.18 | 45.25 | 37.12 | 28.44 | 30.25 | 0.50 | | Textile and Apparel | 44.99 | 53.41 | 52.65 | 39.28 | 42.30 | 1.20 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 47.59 | 167.09 | 146.32 | 132.29 | 133.75 | 7.70 | | Medicine and Biology | 52.07 | 71.30 | 53.47 | 43.92 | 46.74 | 0.90 | | Public Utilities | 25.15 | 33.57 | 27.41 | 20.28 | 23.82 | 2.80 | | Transportation | 26.46 | 36.88 | 30.25 | 23.79 | 26.92 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 207.49 | 126.20 | 100.80 | 86.02 | 88.85 | 0.70 | | Commercial Trade | 39.88 | 50.24 | 42.17 | 32.90 | 36.79 | 1.50 | | Leisure Services | 73.88 | 119.48 | 118.95 | 105.46 | 105.42 | 85.50 | | Banks | 23.36 | 19.80 | 18.64 | 13.86 | 16.79 | 4.10 | | Non-bank Finance | 25.43 | 34.18 | 30.08 | 23.84 | 26.46 | 5.10 | | Comprehensive | 69.95 | 49.74 | 41.37 | 32.62 | 36.37 | 1.70 | | Building Materials | 33.33 | 46.19 | 37.31 | 24.78 | 28.14 | 0.70 | | Building Decoration | 37.97 | 54.48 | 51.32 | 42.89 | 46.49 | 9.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 53.97 | 79.25 | 72.51 | 66.34 | 69.49 | 29.00 | | Machinery and Equipment | 28.21 | 44.64 | 44.40 | 36.28 | 40.18 | 15.10 | | Computers | 66.65 | 61.96 | 46.60 | 33.72 | 36.84 | 1.00 | | Media | 240.02 | 45.79 | 37.92 | 29.70 | 34.29 | 1.30 | | Communications | 27.80 | 29.18 | 29.10 | 24.15 | 27.79 | 6.60 | [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | 5-Day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Corn Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 2332.9 | -0.24% | - | | | Egg Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 6.8 | 3.03% | - | | | Palm Oil Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 9032.0 | 0.42% | - | | | Cotton Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15557.5 | 0.05% | - | | | Average Wholesale Price of Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 20.5 | -1.16% | - | | Non-ferrous Metals | Copper Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 79043.3 | -0.91% | - | | | Zinc Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 22562.0 | -0.91% | - | | | Aluminum Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 20676.7 | -1.30% | - | | | Nickel Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 122683.3 | -1.39% | - | | | Lead Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 16850.0 | 0.26% | - | | | Rebar Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3371.0 | 2.24% | - | | Ferrous Metals | Iron Ore Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 789.7 | -1.15% | - | | | Wire Rod Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3555.0 | 1.64% | - | | | Glass Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 7/29 | 16.1 | 8.81% | - | | Non-metals | Natural Rubber Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15066.7 | -0.28% | - | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 812.3 | -0.29% | - | | | WTI Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 66.7 | 1.15% | - | | Energy | Brent Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 70.0 | 1.20% | - | | | Liquefied Natural Gas Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4152.0 | -1.14% | - | | | Coal Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 768.0 | 1.59% | - | | | PTA Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4863.3 | 0.96% | - | | Chemicals | Polyethylene Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 7453.3 | 0.88% | - | | | Urea Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1817.5 | -0.95% | - | | | Soda Ash Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1315.0 | 5.20% | - | | | National Cement Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 130.1 | -0.53% | - | | Real Estate | Building Materials Comprehensive Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 117.6 | 0.72% | - | | | National Concrete Price Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 94.1 | -0.82% | - | [49]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-30 限产预期再度扭转局势，⿊⾊集体飘红 继周⼀⼤跌后，昨⽇京津冀地区限产消息拉动钢材期价上⾏，随后夜 盘双焦增仓⼤涨，势头强劲。⽬前重要会议结果尚未有定论，资⾦进 出加剧盘⾯波动。产业⽅⾯，基本⾯变化不⼤延续健康态势，尽管终 端板块未看到明显转势的，但中游⼼态较好，出货意愿不强，现货价 格较为坚挺。近期⿊⾊波动加剧，后续宏观或仍有扰动，建议观望为 主，⻓期⻆度看随着交易重⼼回到基本⾯有⾼位回落⻛险。 ⿊⾊：限产预期再度扭转局势，⿊⾊集体飘红 继周一大跌后，昨日京津冀地区限产消息拉动钢材期价上行，随后夜 盘双焦增仓大涨，势头强劲。目前重要会议结果尚未有定论，资金进 出加剧盘面波动。产业方面，基本面变化不大延续健康态势，尽管终 端板块未看到明显转势的，但中游心态较好，出货意愿不强，现货价 格较为坚挺。近期黑色波动加剧，后续宏观或仍有扰动，建议观望为 主，长期角度看随着交易重心回到基本面有高位回落风险。 1、铁元素方面，从基本面来看，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到 港量下降，符合预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The training organized by Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau, Hebei Provincial Financial Office, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange aims to enhance the understanding of local government and state-owned enterprises regarding the futures market, thereby promoting their active participation in risk management through futures trading [1][2]. Group 1: Training Objectives and Participants - The training is the first joint initiative aimed at local government departments to improve their understanding of futures business and create a favorable environment for state-owned enterprises in Hebei to engage in the futures market [2]. - Over 130 representatives from various sectors including finance, taxation, auditing, and state-owned enterprises participated in the training [1]. Group 2: Industry Context and Challenges - Hebei, as a traditional industrial province, has significant potential in utilizing the futures market due to its leading production in coal, steel, glass, corn, and eggs [1]. - The volatility of commodity prices has increased the demand for risk management among enterprises, highlighting a gap in their capabilities to effectively hedge against risks [1]. Group 3: Training Content and Outcomes - The training covered topics such as the functions of the futures derivatives market, risk management models for enterprises, and compliance in financial handling and auditing of futures derivatives [2]. - Practical experiences were shared by companies like Zhongnong Group and Zhengda Glass, which received positive feedback from participants [2]. Group 4: Future Plans - The Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau plans to strengthen collaboration with local governments and futures exchanges to implement national policies aimed at enhancing the role of the futures market in supporting the real economy [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪仍存；碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳， 光伏日熔量大幅下滑，终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1350元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1318元/吨，基差为32元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.46万吨，较前一周减少2.15%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪仍存，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙河低 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market continues to face challenges due to high inventory and weak demand, with the potential for further price declines. The glass market is also under pressure from supply - related inventory issues and weak downstream demand, and the contracts are expected to run weakly [8][9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 4.1.1 Soda Ash Market - On July 29, the main soda ash futures SA509 contract continued to decline, closing at 1318 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (3.58%), with a daily reduction of 108,312 lots. The domestic soda ash industry is facing a combination of high inventory (188.42 tons in factory warehouses) and weak demand (photovoltaic glass daily melting volume dropped to 8.9 tons), intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry" by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment led to a decline in the soda ash market. The fundamentals of soda ash have not changed significantly, and the price may continue to fall [7][8] 4.1.2 Glass Market - In terms of supply, the planned production cuts of photovoltaic glass enterprises have led to a decrease in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass and a decline in the supply of float glass, increasing inventory pressure. The high inventory in the middle reaches of the industry is the main resistance to price increases, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation. Downstream, the domestic real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry" has dashed the expectation of capacity contraction, causing a sharp decline in glass contracts. The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the contract is expected to run weakly [9] 4.2 Data Overview - The report provides charts on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [11][15][17]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Morning Meeting View Highlights of the Research Institute on July 30, 2025, covering macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products [2] Group 2: Macro - Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise due to market waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision, better - than - expected economic data, and good results of US trade negotiations. However, the June job - vacancy data was worse than expected, indicating some weakness in the US labor market, and the good performance of US Treasury auctions led to a decline in Treasury yields. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks may extend the 90 - day tariff truce, which is beneficial to domestic risk appetite [2] - For assets, stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate and correct in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy chemicals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Group 3: Stocks - Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, steel, and communication equipment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade talks and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - The precious - metals market continued to fluctuate narrowly. With the continuous conclusion of trade agreements, market risk appetite recovered, and precious metals were under pressure. The Sino - US negotiation results met market expectations. The market expects the Fed to keep the interest - rate range at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged this week and maintains the expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Precious metals may fluctuate in the short term, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, but the trading volume remained low. The market sentiment improved due to anti - involution policies and possible production restrictions in the north. The real demand has not improved significantly, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week, and the supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week. The coke price increase was implemented for the fourth time, and the cost support was strong. The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future [5][6] Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. The growth space of iron - ore demand is limited, and if production - restriction policies are implemented from August to September, iron - water production may decline. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory on a rigid - demand basis. The global iron - ore shipping volume increased by 91 tons week - on - week, but the arrival volume decreased by 130.7 tons. The port inventory increased slightly. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. The port manganese - ore quotation increased. The production attitude of Inner Mongolia factories is positive. The national utilization rate of silicon - manganese production capacity increased by 1.05% to 41.58%, and the daily output increased by 520 tons; the national utilization rate of silicon - iron production capacity increased by 0.88% to 33.33%, and the daily output increased by 330 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be strong in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The main soda - ash contract was strong. The supply decreased week - on - week, but there is still an oversupply situation. The downstream demand is weak, and the profit decreased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the loose supply - demand pattern. In the short term, the price center is rising due to policy trading, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8] Glass - The main glass contract was strong. The daily melting volume increased slightly, and the supply pressure increased due to the off - season. The terminal real - estate industry is weak, and the demand has not improved. The profit increased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy and relevant guidelines support the short - term price, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8][9] Group 6: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements. The short - term growth - stabilization plan is beneficial to copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, showing a slight recovery. Comex copper inventories continue to accumulate, reaching over 250,000 short tons, the highest level in recent years [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with domestic social inventories and LME inventories increasing. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document is limited. The expected increase in aluminum prices is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the sentiment to cool down instead of shorting for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled - aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season, and the manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined utilization rate of production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi continued to rise to 55.51%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply of tin ore tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [11] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium - carbonate contract 09 fell 5.9% on Tuesday, with the latest settlement price at 70,300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced positions by 79,000 lots, with a total position of 720,000 lots. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate both decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of Australian lithium ore decreased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities after the price stabilizes [12][13] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial - silicon contract 09 rose 2.35% on Tuesday, with the weighted contract increasing positions by 10,000 lots to 530,000 lots. The spot price of East - China oxygen - containing 553 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 450 yuan/ton. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,400 tons. It is advisable to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [13] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract 09 settled at 50,250 yuan/ton on Tuesday, a significant increase of 3.76%. The weighted contract increased positions by 26,000 lots to 360,000 lots. The SMM forecasts that the polysilicon output in July will be about 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10%. There are many disturbances in the news, and it is risky to short directly [14] Group 7: Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The US may impose economic sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine, which intensifies the market's concern about supply tightness. The market is closely watching the August 1 tariff deadline and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate in the near future [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract stabilized after a downward resonance. The inventory decreased slightly, the trading volume was low, and the overall demand was average. The basis was stable, and the social inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The market believes that this year's demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is necessary to focus on the inventory - reduction situation in the later stage. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil price, but the upside space is limited [15] PX - The tight supply of PX continued. The external price dropped to $851, and the price difference with naphtha remained at $293. The PTA processing fee dropped to a new low in the past six months, which may lead to production cuts of leading devices. There is a risk of downstream negative feedback. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space is limited [15] PTA - The basis remained at around - 5. The port - inventory accumulation slowed down slightly. After the downstream sales soared last week, the downstream inventory decreased significantly, but the profit did not increase substantially. In the later stage, the downstream may face inventory - accumulation pressure and production cuts. The PTA processing fee is low, and the leading devices are reducing production. There is bottom support, and it is necessary to wait for the change in the August stocking rhythm [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol port inventory decreased slightly to 521,000 tons, but the price declined due to sector resonance, especially for coal - based ethylene glycol. There is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance devices. The downstream start - up rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have no significant increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [17] Short - Fiber - Crude - oil prices fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the start - up rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, and more inventory reduction needs to wait for the peak - season stocking in August. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the polyester end and may be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [17] Methanol - The MA2509 contract closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 29, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The position decreased by 40,700 lots to 576,000 lots. The Taicang price fluctuated slightly, and the basis was stable. The methanol price in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly. The coal - price increase supports the methanol price, but the upward movement is restricted by device restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profit. Methanol prices are expected to return to the oscillation range. It is advisable for conservative investors to wait and see before the Politburo meeting [18] PP - The PP market price partially declined, and the mainstream price of East - China drawn wire was 7100 - 7180 yuan/ton. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 30,000 tons to 780,000 tons on July 29. Affected by multiple policies, there is still some price support, but the supply is loose, the downstream demand is weakened by high prices, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. PP prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19] LLDPE - The polyethylene market price was adjusted, and the standard - product transaction price was 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. The prices in North, East, and South China decreased by 20, 30, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The futures contract of polyethylene corrected, and the short - term fluctuation may be affected by policies. Before the Politburo meeting, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for a direction. In the long term, the oversupply pattern has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand weakens during the price increase, and the import profit increases significantly. The fundamentals may deteriorate more than expected. Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term [19] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1008.25, down 3.25 or 0.32% (settlement price 1009.50). Favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas puts pressure on soybean prices, while soybean oil provides some support. As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - and - excellent rate was 70%, better than the market expectation of 67% [20][21] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the sentiment of the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may lead to a short - selling market at the end of the crop - growing season in late August, which will drag down the domestic soybean - meal market. Domestic oil mills have a high and stable start - up rate, and the soybean - meal inventory is gradually accumulating, with a weak basis. The national full - sample oil - mill start - up rate was 64.74% on July 29, up 0.51% from the previous day. It is worth noting that the spot buying at low prices has increased in some areas, and the basis trading volume from May to July next year has increased [21] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil has a large pressure to realize profits at a high level, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has shrunk at a low level, and soybean oil has made up for the increase, but there is no fundamental support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, the terminal consumption is weak, the oil - mill crushing volume has decreased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the basis quotations in various regions continue to be at the bottom [21] Palm Oil - The strong international crude - oil price, the weakening ringgit, and the rise of US soybean oil may boost the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude - palm - oil futures. The palm - oil market is bullish without signs of correction, but the upward resistance has increased significantly. With the increase of domestic palm - oil imports, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The production of Malaysian palm oil is progressing smoothly, the export has declined month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. From July 1 - 25, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 8.53% month - on - month [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].