此次行动旨在搭建产销对接桥梁，助力脱贫地区产业发展和农民增收，是国资央企积极履行社会责任、 服务乡村振兴的具体实践。 由国务院国资委社会责任局指导，中国稀土集团等4家央企联合主办的"'脐'心协力 '橙'意助农"央企消费 帮扶聚力行动14日在江西省赣州市开幕。 活动采取"线下展销+线上销售"联动模式。其中，线下集中展销来自3个国家部委、30余家国资央企定点 帮扶和对口支援的92个县110家被帮扶企业的1400款特色农产品，并面向社会公众开放。现场还邀请专 业机构进行质量检测，保障产品安全。 （文章来源：人民日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's agricultural exports are projected to reach a record high of $169.2 billion in 2025, driven by strong global demand and competitive pricing advantages [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Soybean exports are expected to reach 108 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Cotton exports are projected at 3.03 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, reinforcing Brazil's position as the world's largest cotton exporter [1] - Beef exports are anticipated to hit 3.5 million tons, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 40.1% [1] - Chicken exports, despite the impact of avian influenza, are set to reach a record 5.324 million tons, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.6% [1] - Pork exports are expected to reach 1.51 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, positioning Brazil to potentially surpass Canada as the world's third-largest pork exporter [1]

Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's foreign trade reached a record high of 45.47 trillion yuan, growing by 3.8%, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%) and imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%) [2][3] Group 1: Trade Growth and Market Diversification - China's foreign trade achieved growth with 249 countries and regions involved, including 14 with trade exceeding one trillion yuan, 62 over 100 billion yuan, and 137 over 10 billion yuan [3] - Trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" reached 23.6 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% and accounting for 51.9% of total trade [3] - Exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa were 7.55 trillion yuan, 3.93 trillion yuan, and 2.49 trillion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 6.5%, and 18.4% [3] Group 2: Sectoral Performance and Innovation - High-tech product exports grew by 13.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth, with specialized equipment, high-end machine tools, and industrial robots increasing by 20.6%, 21.5%, and 48.7% respectively [5] - China became a net exporter of industrial robots, with exports surpassing imports [5] - In the green energy sector, exports of lithium batteries and wind turbines grew by 26.2% and 48.7%, respectively [5] Group 3: Import Trends and Market Dynamics - In 2025, imports reached 18.48 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and maintaining China's position as the world's second-largest import market for 17 consecutive years [7] - Despite a decline in international prices for major commodities, imports still grew, with a notable increase in agricultural products and machinery [7][8] - China imported nearly 30 billion tons of major commodities, with a 1.1% increase, and over 7.4 trillion yuan in electromechanical products, growing by 5.7% [7] Group 4: Role of Enterprises in Trade - Private enterprises accounted for 57.3% of total trade value, with imports and exports reaching 26.04 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1% [9] - Foreign enterprises maintained a strong presence, with imports and exports totaling 13.27 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7% [9] - State-owned enterprises played a crucial role in energy supply and import, with a total trade value of 6.06 trillion yuan, representing 13.3% of total foreign trade [10]

Group 1 - The visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China from January 14 to 17 is significant as it marks his first visit to China since taking office and the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister in eight years, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations [2][4] - The visit is seen as both an economic action and a political signal, reflecting Canada's need to diversify its trade relationships and reduce dependence on the U.S. amid ongoing trade tensions [4][6] - Canada aims to double its exports to non-U.S. markets over the next decade, with China being a key partner, as bilateral trade has grown significantly from $150 million in 1970 to an estimated $93 billion in 2024 [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic challenges in Canada, including a projected GDP decline of 0.3% in October 2025, highlight the urgency for Canada to seek increased exports to China and attract Chinese investments [4][6] - The trade relationship between Canada and China remains complementary, with Canada exporting primarily energy and agricultural products to China, while importing electronics and machinery [5][6] - Key issues for discussion during the visit include potential breakthroughs in electric vehicle tariffs and agricultural trade, which have been significant barriers to expanding trade relations [8][9] Group 3 - The delegation accompanying Carney includes key cabinet ministers, indicating a comprehensive approach to addressing trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [8] - Recent public opinion polls show that a majority of Canadians support reaching a trade agreement with China, reflecting a potential shift in public sentiment towards strengthening bilateral ties [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Coke, Coal [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Cautious: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Wait - and - See: Polysilicon [1] Core Views - The stock index may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment, and the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina prices will fluctuate. Zinc and nickel prices have uncertainties due to policies and fundamentals, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate, rebar, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, showing a state of shock or limited upward space [1]. - The prices of agricultural products such as palm oil, cotton, and sugar are affected by supply - demand relationships and market news, with different trends [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand, and cost, and different products have different trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index and Bond Futures - Stock Index: After a volume - based breakthrough, it may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment as the market trading volume remains high [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight ore supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Limited industrial drive, but restricted supply and improved macro - sentiment are expected to drive prices higher [1]. - Alumina: There is a large release space on the supply side, but the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1]. - Nickel: The market's concern about supply has decreased, but policy implementation is uncertain. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw - material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The price has risen due to good macro - sentiment and supply disturbances, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and long - term low - position buying is recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks, the Fed's independence crisis, and lower - than - expected CPI have boosted prices, but the price fluctuations are large [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - environment is favorable, but the fundamentals are not as solid as precious metals. In the short term, they will fluctuate widely, and long - term low - position buying of platinum is recommended [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while southwest production is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the traditional peak season of new - energy vehicles, the demand for energy storage is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the price is in shock [1]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and supply may be disturbed by energy - consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, wait for the opportunity to buy when the origin reduces production and inventory and the biodiesel story unfolds. Short - term waiting is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a state of "with support but no driving force". Future factors such as policies, planting intentions, and weather should be concerned [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: The selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the USDA report, the internal market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the soybean auction [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil and Bitumen: They follow the trend of crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX market has risen, and domestic PTA maintains high - level operation. The short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Styrene: The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, but the cost support is strong, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the market will trade based on fundamentals. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is at a low level [1]. - LPG: The import cost is supported, and the risk premium has increased. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is expected to increase [1]. Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations. It further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.11 million tons, which is bearish. The US soybean quarterly stocks report also showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than expected and bearish. With no significant weather - driven speculation in South America in the short term, and Brazil starting harvest, the impact of January harvest selling pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums should be monitored. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly. The recent full - premium auction of imported soybeans reflects the market's expectation of a soybean shortage in March, but the large auction volume will supplement the domestic soybean supply in Q1 [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Basis Data - On January 13th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 379, up 19; the 43% soybean meal spot basis against the main contract in Rizhao was 399, up 29; in Tianjin was 439, up 29; in Dongguan was 359, up 9; in Zhanjiang was 419, up 29; in Fangcheng was 419, up 19; the rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 90; M3 - 2 was 356, up 29 [6]. 3.2 Inventory and Production - related Data - Data on China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mills' operating rate are presented in the form of historical trend charts from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.3 Spread and International Data - Spread data includes RM1 - 5, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong, and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the main contract. International data shows the 2025 Brazilian soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross margin [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of supply - demand relationships, macro - economic factors, and technical indicators [5][7][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.28%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 342.4 billion yuan. Due to the stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and the relatively low treasury bond yields, it is expected that treasury bond futures will face some pressure, and caution is advised [5]. 3.2 Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.44%, 0.15%, 1.20%, and 1.76% respectively. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to push the volatility center of the stock index up gradually. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [7][8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose by 0.09% and the silver main contract rose by 0.28%. The US CPI data was in line with expectations. Given the complex global trade and financial environment and central banks' gold - buying behavior, the allocation and hedging value of gold is favorable. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, it is expected that market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [10]. 3.4 Industrial Products - **Steel Products**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is decreasing year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year but with a fast consumption speed. It is expected that the rebar price will continue its weak oscillation, and the hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Technically, the rebound momentum of steel futures is insufficient. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage their positions carefully [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated at a high level. The supply of iron ore may strengthen, with the continuous resumption of blast furnaces and the increase in port inventory. Technically, the iron ore futures have broken through the previous high and may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage their positions carefully [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises has improved. The first - round increase in the spot purchase price of coke is expected to start. The cost support for coke has strengthened, and the demand for coke has increased due to the continuous resumption of blast furnaces. Technically, the futures form of coke and coking coal has strengthened. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage their positions carefully [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell by 0.37% and the silicon - iron main contract fell by 0.11%. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys has decreased since the fourth quarter of 2025, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. It is recommended to consider long positions in the low - level range after the price decline [19]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the possible escalation of the Iranian situation. The US and oil companies are discussing the development strategy of Venezuelan oil, but it has been met with a cold response. The US - Iran conflict has intensified. Crude oil has stabilized around $60 and is expected to continue to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main crude oil contract [20][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The decrease in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the increase in the cost of crude oil are expected to drive the price of fuel oil up. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao increased. After the New Year's Day, the demand in traditional industries such as plastic weaving and PP pipes has decreased, while the demand in some fields such as new energy vehicles and medical protection has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on polyolefins [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.29%. The market rose last week, supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to oscillate strongly [29][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract closed flat, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell by 0.19%. It is expected that the natural rubber market will oscillate widely in the short term. The supply is decreasing as the domestic production area enters the end of the rubber - tapping season, while the demand from the tire industry is weak, and the inventory is increasing [32]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose by 1.73%. Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation of the futures price. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation may improve due to capacity clearance and export growth. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the demand side [34]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell by 0.11%. In the short term, the urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand from the industrial and agricultural sectors shows different trends. The inventory is lower than expected [38]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell by 0.49%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, and the PX operating rate is maintained. The increase in crude oil prices provides support. In the short term, PX may oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the range and pay attention to the risks of external crude oil fluctuations [40][41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell by 0.31%. The supply and demand situation has not changed much, and the processing fee has returned to a neutral level. The inventory is still at a low level. The increase in crude oil prices may provide support. In the short term, PTA may oscillate. It is recommended to operate cautiously on dips and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell by 1.4%. The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to changes in port inventory and supply [44][45]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract fell by 0.37%. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level, which may provide some support. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [46]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose by 0.16%. The processing fee has decreased. The supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate has increased. It is recommended to participate cautiously on dips and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [47][48]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30%. The fundamental situation is still loose, with an increase in production and inventory. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate in the range in the short term [49]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%. The fundamental situation is still loose, and the downstream procurement is rational. The industry profit is low, and the downward space is limited [50][51]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract of caustic soda closed at 2131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74%. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. It is expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but there may be price - driving factors from downstream capacity optimization or supply - side production cuts. It is recommended to operate in the range and control positions [52]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of paper pulp closed at 5492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The price has risen under the influence of macro - sentiment, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved. The inventory is at a relatively high level, which suppresses the market trend. It is expected to oscillate in the range [53][54]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose by 7.44%. The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for lithium - battery products may stimulate enterprises to increase exports and inventory. The supply is at a high level, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%. The US economic data shows a mixed situation, and there are supply - side disturbances in the copper market. The high price suppresses short - term consumption, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [56][57]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24780 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%. The alumina surplus situation remains unchanged, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is difficult to increase significantly. The high price suppresses demand, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to adjust at a high level [59]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24490 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. The supply of zinc ore is tight, and the output of refined zinc has decreased. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate after the upward shift of the operating center [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17435 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11%. The production of primary lead has decreased, and the supply of secondary lead is scarce. The demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a very low level. It is expected to oscillate in the range [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose by 4.63%. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows some resilience in emerging fields. The inventory has decreased. It is expected to run strongly [65][66]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell by 0.33%. The Indonesian policy risk has increased, and the cost of nickel production is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies [67]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract fell by 0.90%, and the soybean - oil main contract rose by 0.18%. The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed, and the US soybean production is expected to increase while exports are expected to decrease. The domestic soybean import has slowed down, and the oil - mill crushing is in a loss. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunity for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and the opportunity to exit long positions for soybean oil after the price rises [68][70]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil has turned from rising to falling, affected by the uncertainty of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy. The export data is optimistic, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to consider the opportunity of going long after the price correction [71][72]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price has increased, following the rise of CBOT soybean - oil futures. The global and Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in the import trade policy of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed - oil inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to consider the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean - rapeseed meal and soybean - rapeseed oil [73][74]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton rose and then fell slightly. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable for the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory increase is lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips in batches after the price correction [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, Zheng sugar oscillated weakly. The domestic sugar production is increasing, and the import volume is expected to be high in January. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase. The upward space of the sugar price may be limited in the medium - long term [79][80]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to run strongly in the medium - long term [82][85]. - **Pig**: The previous trading day, the national average price of pigs rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase in the middle of the month, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in market funds [87][88]. - **Egg**: The previous trading day, the main contract of eggs fell by 1.32%. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to consider the positive - spread strategy [90][91]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose by 0.35%, and the corn - starch main contract rose by 0.31%. The US corn production is expected to increase, and the domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The corn - starch demand has improved slightly, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the release of supply pressure [92][93]. - **Log**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract of logs closed at 774.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06%. The supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The basis oscillates at a low level, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on January 14, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price in Changchun remained stable, while in Jinzhou and Weifang, it increased by 10. The price in Shekou rose by 10. Corn's basis increased by 16, and the import profit increased by 80. Starch's basis increased by 5, and the processing profit increased by 21 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to be moderately strong due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations. Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, depending on pre - holiday downstream stocking enthusiasm [3] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory reduction [3] Group 3: Sugar Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis increased by 32, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 18, and that from Brazil decreased by 17. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6] Market Analysis - International: In the 2025/2026 sugar - crushing season, the northern hemisphere's major producers are expected to increase production in the long - term. Pay attention to the actual realization of the production increase [6] - Domestic: In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the price is based on domestic sugar cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will approach the cost of out - of - quota imports [6] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to improve. The planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term long positions [9] Group 5: Eggs Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan increased, with the largest increase of 0.20 in Shandong. The basis increased by 20, and the price of substitute products such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained unchanged, while the price of live pigs increased by 0.21 [15] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the decline rate of inventory lies in the culling rhythm. In Hebei, if the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, a batch of hens over 400 days old will be culled, which is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter [16] Group 6: Apples Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The 1 - month basis decreased by 149, and the 5 - month basis decreased by 69 [18][19] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is still light. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples have declined. As of January 7, 2026, the national inventory decreased by 126,600 tons compared with last week. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - term, the overall pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [19] Group 7: Pigs Price and Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 40 [19] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price of pigs first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the near - term. Pay attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [19]