1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

| 11/12 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月26日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价总体震荡，布伦特07合约周度小幅下跌0.46%，SC07合约跌0.75%。上周五特朗普威,励6月1日起对欧盟 征收50%关税,此举将再次引发欧盟油品需求承压预期,同时欧洲对美出口汽油若未得豁免将在北美进入驾驶旺季 后拉动美国汽油裂解。关于6月1日OPEC+8国会议延续7月41.1万桶/天快速增产的担忧同样令市场承压，但周五美伊 第五轮核谈未达成协议,特朗普亦表示或因俄乌军事冲突持续而对俄罗斯加大制裁。制裁油供应风险仍对 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]

分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 分析师：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 分析师：陈一凡 从业资格证号：F3054270 投资咨询证号：Z0015946 分析师：卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F03101843 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 助理分析师：张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【能源化工周报】 油价宽幅波动，化工震荡走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-05-26 目录 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周度观点策略汇总 | 原油（SC） | 天然橡胶（RU&NR） | 聚酯（TA&EG&PF） | 05 苯乙烯（EB） 06 液化石油气（LPG） 07 丁二烯橡胶（BR） 08 烧碱（SH） 09 PVC（V） 10 沥青（BU） 11 集运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

2025年05月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 21 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：丁二烯回调，震荡承压 | 4 | | 沥青：区间震荡，观望为上 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 8 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 10 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素：高位震荡 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期支撑走强，关注内盘反弹 | 22 | | PVC：后期仍有压力 | 25 | | 燃料油：日盘小幅上涨，短期转入调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘继续转弱，外盘高低硫价差小幅回弹 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，6-8反套减仓止盈；10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，成 ...