| 家用电 | 15.88 | -2.77 | 2.07 | 0.03 | -3.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 | | | | | | | 社会服 | 13.50 | 11.98 | 2.99 | -0.20 | -4.08 | | 务 | | | | | | | 环保 | 18.96 | 11.58 | 2.12 | -1.03 | -4.59 | | 医药生 物 | 68.04 | -1.48 | 2.49 | 0.39 | -5.73 | | 通信 | 32.51 | 17.15 | 1.87 | -0.85 | -15.10 | | 汽车 | 45.27 | -0.21 | 2.09 | -0.53 | -17.97 | | 基础化 工 | 71.27 | 1.70 | 2.66 | -1.22 | -21.74 | | 机械设 | 65.11 | -6.74 | 2.40 | -0.97 | -28.36 | | 备 | | | | | | | 国防军 | 32.96 | -12.68 | 3.05 | -0.91 | -29.30 | ...

市场全天震荡反弹，沪指再创年内新高 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3461.15 | 0.18% | 6.36 | | | 深证成指 | 10534.58 | 1.17% | 121.96 | | | 沪深 300 | 3968.07 | 0.62% | 24.38 | | | 创业板 | 2164.09 | 1.90% | 40.37 | | | 科创 50 | 984.95 | 0.24% | 2.31 | | | 北证 50 | 1442.17 | 0.21% | 3.02 | | 证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 4 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 财富通每日策略 值得关注的是，数据显示，6 月 30 日，合计有 43 家 IPO 被沪深北三大交易所受理； 而在 6 月 26 日和 6 月 27 日，均有 18 ...

热点板块：展望 7 月 A 股，可能仍是事件驱动的主题性行情，但板块间将出现高低切换。6 月末创 新药和银行等热门板块出现震荡回调，但 TMT、先进制造等板块开始超跌反弹，虽然 7 月预计仍是事 件驱动的主题性行情，但板块高低切换却是大概率事件。1）促进消费扩大内需是 2025 年的重点任务， 虽然大消费方向年报和一季报表现相对平淡，但市场对后续政策对冲仍有期待，这将是 2025 年大消费 方向的重要看点。关注乳制品、IP 消费、休闲旅游、医美等基本面景气度较高的板块。2）机器人国产 化和走进老百姓生活依然是 2025 年比较确定的趋势，机器人产品将从人形机器人向四足机器人、功能 型机器人扩展。以此带来的传感器、控制器、灵巧手等板块的阶段性机会将会反复出现。7 月特斯拉将 公布财报，且市场预期特斯拉人形机器人版本有可能更新，或将成为机器人板块新催化剂。3）半导体 国产化仍是大势所趋，关注其中的半导体设备、晶圆制造、半导体材料、IC 设计等。4）军工板块 2025 年存在订单回升的预期，大部分军工子板块如地面装备、航空装备、军工电子等一季报已经出现触底迹 象。5）创新药经历了近 4 年的调整后逐步迎来收获期，自 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 2025 年上半年，A 股市场一波三折，年初至 1 月中旬受风险情绪压制快速下 跌，4 月初再度因美国所谓"对等关税"砸出市场"黄金坑"，整体呈现探 底修复态势，6 月下旬指数三连阳，6 月 26 日盘中 3462 点创年内新高。上 半年万得全 A、上证指数、沪深 300 分别上涨 5.83%、2.76%、0.03%。 分季度来看，一季度 A 股延续震荡筑底，整体表现弱于一致调查值。1 月受 企业盈利与海外不确定性拖累，资金观望情绪浓厚；2 月中美摩擦升温叠加 国内促消费政策发力，指数小幅反弹；3 月货币政策预期宽松，成长板块阶 段性活跃后转向防御风格。二季度市场重心回归基本面与政策博弈，4 月在 美加税冲击下急跌，政策底显现后快速修复；5 月指数反弹至前期阻力位后 震荡调整；6 月在红利兑现、中报预期升温及地缘风险扰动下，市场震荡中 略有上行，结构分化明显，成长风格占优。 风格：小微盘总体占优，大盘价值展韧性 2025 年上半年整体偏均衡稳定，半年维度看微盘强于小盘，小盘强于中盘和 大盘。上半年小盘成长相较大盘价值的风格切换较为频繁，小盘成长顺风期 与市场上涨期高度 ...

相关ETF （原标题：【盘中播报】沪指涨0.20% 电子行业涨幅最大） 证券时报•数据宝统计，截至下午13:58，今日沪指涨0.20%，A股成交量869.87亿股，成交金额10555.06亿元，比上一个交易日减少5.71%。个股方 面，3346只个股上涨，其中涨停60只，1784只个股下跌，其中跌停6只。从申万行业来看，电子、电力设备、医药生物等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为 2.16%、1.34%、1.27%；煤炭、石油石化、交通运输等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.63%、0.40%、0.33%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:58） | 申万行业 | 行业 | 成交额 | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | （亿元） | | | | | 电子 | | 2.16 1536.56 14.18 | | 久之洋 | 16.58 | | 电力设备 | 1.34 1043.13 | | 3.88 | 中一科技 | 19.99 | | 医药生物 | 1.27 | 885.16 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, there are still structural concerns, and inflation expectations are stabilizing. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased this week [7]. - Domestic macro: China's manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, with production and demand both picking up. However, the upward drive still depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction has seen a seasonal decline in physical work volume [7]. - Asset views: China's economy remains stable, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US in June slightly rebounded to 49.0. In May, job openings rose to 7.769 million, and the job - opening rate was 4.6%. Core durable goods orders surged in May. In June, consumer confidence, current situation, and expectations all declined. This week, long - term inflation expectations were stable, short - term inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased [7]. - **Domestic**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure physical work volume has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a strong performance at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Markets - **Stock Index Futures**: Policy starts to focus on manufacturing profits, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has stabilized, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Shipping**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation for the European container shipping line, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - limit news, the market is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by emission - reduction news in Tangshan, the market declined slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coke**: Rumors have caused the market to oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by supply - demand rumors, the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Due to the decline in coal valuation, the futures price is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: With the increase in cost valuation, the market rebounds after reaching the bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Glass**: Prices in Shahe and Hubei continue to decline, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance disruptions still exist, and daily production begins to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices remain high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Alumina**: With a low number of warehouse receipts, the alumina market rises, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Aluminum and Zinc**: Aluminum prices rise due to low inventory and high premiums; zinc has an oversupply situation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation for aluminum and oscillatory decline for zinc [9]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside space for lead prices is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: Spot trading is dull, and tin prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply continues to increase, and silicon prices are under pressure to oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and there is a risk of price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitical risks, and the PG market may oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices oscillate, waiting for negative factors to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Methanol**: The port market has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - strong and demand - weak situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate weakly in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years, and the futures price should not be overly shorted, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and the cost is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Short - fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and the absolute value follows raw materials, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and PP oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Plastic**: The improvement from maintenance is limited, and plastic oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks have cooled down temporarily, and styrene prices decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. 3.2.5 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Protein Meal**: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is confirmed, the market has corrected in advance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent rainfall, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Rubber**: The strong performance of commodities has driven rubber prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market oscillates within a narrow range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the warm trading atmosphere in the financial market, pulp oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the US cotton planting area has slowed down the rise of Zhengzhou cotton prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, and sugar prices have limited upward momentum, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Timber**: The market is dominated by fundamentals again, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11].

中国石化湖北襄阳石油分公司相关负责人介绍，除了进军即时零售领域，当天在位于襄阳的中国石化汉江北路站、油坊岗站内的两座综合汽服店，以及13座 加能站内的"易捷咖啡"店也同步上线。 在这些加能站，消费者不仅可以给车辆做保养，还可以得到洗车、汽车美容等全链条服务。车主在等候时，还能喝一杯咖啡。 湖北日报讯 （记者彭一苇、通讯员杨洋、潘磊、金昕悦）7月2日，中国石化在湖北地区的首家"易捷速购"店在襄阳中国石化振华路加能站正式投入运营， 标志着中国石化在湖北地区正式进军即时零售领域。 中国石化襄阳振华路加能站"易捷速购"店与传统的易捷便利店不同，其拥有260余平方米的仓储式门店，内有6000余种商品，涵盖米面粮油、零食饮料、日 用百货、襄阳地域特产等商品。 记者看到，外卖骑手在振华路加能站内进进出出，消费者通过平台下单后，门店快速分拣，由骑手负责配送。店长谢伟介绍，开业活动期间一些商品价格低 至1分钱，购物达到9.9元即可配送。当天该店订单量突破200单，其中90%为3公里内的订单。 今年4月，中国石化湖北石油分公司对外发布"车生态""家生活"新战略，为消费者的爱车提供"洗、养、修、护、保"一站式的"车生态"服务。同时 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

Core Insights - In June, the total market value of 83 state-owned listed companies in Shandong increased by 17.286 billion yuan, with 54 companies experiencing growth, 1 remaining stable, and 28 seeing a decrease [1] Market Value Changes - Shandong Gold (600547.SH) led the market value increase with a growth of 6.976 billion yuan, followed by Inspur Information (000977.SZ) with 2.841 billion yuan and Zhongtai Securities (600918.SH) with 2.369 billion yuan [1] - The top ten companies by market value increase included Weichai Power (000338.SZ) with 2.303 billion yuan and Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880.SZ) with 1.875 billion yuan [1] Stock Price Performance - Shandong Melon (002490.SZ) had the highest stock price increase in June, with a rise of 61.42%, followed by Meichen Technology (300237.SZ) at 28.24% and Hongxing Development (600367.SH) at 23.24% [2][3] - Other notable performers included Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880.SZ) with a stock price increase of 17.6% and Haizhu Co. (301262.SZ) at 15.21% [3] Company Announcements and Developments - Inspur Information announced a share buyback plan with a total fund of no less than 200 million yuan and not exceeding 300 million yuan, with a maximum buyback price of 75.59 yuan per share [4] - Zhongtai Securities reported that Inspur Information is expected to see sustained growth in revenue and profit due to the GenAI wave [5] Performance Declines - Yanzhou Coal (600188.SH) experienced the largest market value decline in June, losing 4.173 billion yuan, followed by Shandong Expressway (600350.SH) with a decrease of 3.786 billion yuan and Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) with a drop of 3.34 billion yuan [6][7] - Other companies with significant market value losses included Shanjin International (000975.SZ) and Qingdao Port (601298.SH), both losing over 2 billion yuan [8] Additional Company Insights - Yanzhou Coal is recognized as a leading coal producer in East China, focusing on coal production, processing, and sales, with a strong outlook due to rising coal prices [9] - Luyuan Pharmaceutical (600789.SH) has shown consistent revenue growth, with projected revenues of 5.621 billion yuan, 6.147 billion yuan, and 6.233 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [9][10]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 1, the latest market financing balance reached 1,841.902 billion yuan, showing an increase of 3.753 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 20 out of 31 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance [1]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The electronic industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.450 billion yuan to a total of 213.092 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Defense and military industry: increased by 0.507 billion yuan to 66.669 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 0.486 billion yuan to 78.648 billion yuan - Machinery equipment: increased by 0.422 billion yuan to 94.931 billion yuan [1]. - Conversely, 11 industries reported a decrease in financing balance, with the computer industry experiencing the largest drop of 0.623 billion yuan to 1,410.87 billion yuan [2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The comprehensive industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.30%, totaling 3.319 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with significant percentage increases include: - Retail: 1.06% increase - Real estate: 0.93% increase - Beauty care: 0.91% increase [1]. - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Petroleum and petrochemicals: decreased by 0.75% - Coal: decreased by 0.50% - Textile and apparel: decreased by 0.46% [1][2].