- The report introduces two key tracking indicators: "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" and "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" [7] - The "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" is designed to capture the buying behavior of large funds. It is calculated by identifying large orders from transaction data and computing the proportion of large buy orders' transaction amounts relative to the total daily transaction amount [7] - The "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" reflects investors' active buying behavior. It is derived by distinguishing active buy and sell transactions from transaction data, calculating the net active buy amount (active buy amount minus active sell amount), and expressing it as a proportion of the total daily transaction amount [7] Factor Backtesting Results - For individual stocks, the top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" include Xinhua Du (90.6%, 99.2% percentile), Beichen Industrial (89.1%, 98.8% percentile), and Zhongyou Engineering (88.8%, 100.0% percentile) [9] - For individual stocks, the top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" include Senying Windows (22.3%, 100.0% percentile), Huitong Group (20.0%, 100.0% percentile), and Yuandong Biotech (19.6%, 100.0% percentile) [10] - For broad-based indices, the 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" ranges from 71.7% (Shanghai 50 Index) to 74.3% (China Securities 500 Index), while the "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" ranges from -5.2% (Shanghai 50 Index) to 1.9% (China Securities 500 Index) [12] - For industries, the 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" is highest in the banking sector (80.6%, 86.5% percentile) and lowest in the electronics sector (70.8%, 16.4% percentile). The "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" is highest in the steel sector (7.9%, 75.8% percentile) and lowest in the banking sector (-14.6%, 3.3% percentile) [13] - For ETFs, the top 10 ETFs with the highest 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" include Guotai CSI A500 ETF (92.3%, 36.1% percentile) and Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF (90.7%, 89.3% percentile) [15] - For ETFs, the top 10 ETFs with the highest 5-day average "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" include Southern SSE STAR Chip ETF (27.5%, 100.0% percentile) and E Fund Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (23.6%, 99.6% percentile) [16]

今日早盘（25/12/2），港股银行、非银金融、煤炭、石油石化等高股息板块集体上涨。在当前经济弱 复苏、海外流动性及国内政策仍存不确定性的环境下，港股红利类资产的防御属性有望持续吸引资金关 注。 （数据来源：Wind） 截至最新（25/12/1），港股通红利ETF（513530）自25年10月28日以来连续24个交易日均实现资金净流 入，累计吸金7.78亿元，推动其基金规模连续9周（25/9/27-25/11/28）正增长后攀升至28.91亿元，创下 阶段性新高；交投活跃度也显著升温，最新交易日（25/12/1）成交额放量至1.85亿元，较前一交易日增 长153%，同期资金净流入大幅增长245%。 （数据来源：Wind、交易所，规模前高日为2025/8/6；25/12/1成交额、净流入分别为1.85亿元、0.69亿 元，25/11/28成交额、净流入分别为0.73亿元、0.20亿元） 港股红利类资产之所以受到资金关注，离不开其在低利率环境下愈发凸显的较高股息优势。港股通红利 ETF（513530）跟踪的港股通高股息（CNY）指数近一年股息率来到5.63%，不仅与同期1.82%的10年 期国债收益率存在明显利差 ...

港股红利逆势上涨，港股红利低波ETF、港股通红利低波ETF、恒生红利低波ETF、港股通红利ETF广 发、恒生红利ETF、港股央企红利50ETF、港股央企红利ETF、港股红利低波ETF、港股通红利低波 ETF、港股红利指数ETF、港股通央企红利ETF南方、港股通红利低波ETF基金涨超1%。 广发证券指出，港股红利在岁末年初日历效应最强，12月-次年1月中旬的阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益 的概率较大、收益率较高。 外资加仓科技，内资加仓红利。根据港交所中央结算系统持股明细数据，最近一周（2025/11/5- 2025/11/11）各类资金合计流入港股市场164亿港元，其中稳定型外资流出139亿港元，灵活型外资流入 69亿港元，港股通流入336亿港元，中国香港或大陆本地资金流出107亿港元。行业层面，最近一周外资 流入软件服务、电气设备、医药生物等较多，港股通流入银行、石油石化、非银金融等较多。 华福证券表示，利率下行周期下，红利高股息的防御性，从资产配置角度而言，红利资产的高股息、低 波动属性能够有效降低投资组合的整体风险水平，优化风险收益比。国内降息周期下的低利率环境、经 济弱复苏的背景均利好红利策略，其中港股红 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 1.57 | 55.98 | -7.36 | 恒逸石化 | 10.05 | | 轻工制造 | 0.31 | 118.27 | 11.68 | 好莱客 | 10.03 | | 煤炭 | 0.29 | 61.19 | 19.28 | 安泰集团 | 9.96 | | 通信 | 0.26 | 634.91 | -14.27 | 通宇通讯 | 10.02 | | 家用电器 | 0.19 | 105.50 | -9.65 | 日出东方 | 6.10 | | 公用事业 | 0.09 | 136.74 | -9.61 | 德龙汇能 | 9.63 | | 国防军工 | 0.05 | 399.34 | 1.81 | 江龙船艇 | 10.53 | | 综合 | -0.01 | 30.82 | 15.75 | 东阳光 | -2.02 | | 建筑材料 | -0.06 | 68.77 | -30.26 | ...

- The diffusion index model tracks industry rotation based on momentum principles, aiming to capture upward trends in industries. It has been monitored for four years, with notable performance in 2021 and stable returns in 2022. However, it faced challenges in 2023 and 2024 due to market reversals. For December 2025, recommended industries include non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, steel, banking, power equipment & new energy, and electronics[23][24][27] - The GRU factor model utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level volume and price data, focusing on short-cycle performance. It has achieved significant excess returns since 2021 but struggled in 2025 due to concentrated market themes. For the week ending November 28, 2025, industries ranked highest by GRU factors include comprehensive, steel, banking, comprehensive finance, retail, and agriculture[30][31][33] - Diffusion index model weekly rankings show top industries as non-ferrous metals (0.994), comprehensive (0.961), steel (0.939), banking (0.937), power equipment & new energy (0.902), and electronics (0.853). Industries with the lowest rankings include food & beverage (0.343), utilities (0.498), transportation (0.503), real estate (0.548), construction (0.563), and oil & petrochemicals (0.616)[24][25][26] - GRU factor weekly rankings highlight top industries as comprehensive (4.42), steel (3.9), banking (0.5), comprehensive finance (0.43), retail (0.18), and agriculture (-0.33). Industries ranked lowest include communication (-15.26), defense (-9.1), electronics (-8.71), pharmaceuticals (-8.44), computing (-8.11), and real estate (-7.63)[31][32][33] - Diffusion index model achieved an average weekly return of 3.53%, exceeding the equal-weighted return of CICC primary industries by 1.10%. Year-to-date excess return stands at 2.55%[27] - GRU factor model recorded an average weekly return of 1.06%, underperforming the equal-weighted return of CICC primary industries by -1.43%. Year-to-date excess return is -4.45%[33]

12月2日早盘，A股小幅低开后涨跌分化，中证石化产业指数震荡上行，现涨约0.55%，成分股恒逸 石化、彤程新材、杭氧股份等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）近10天合计"吸金"2386万元， 资金布局特征明显。 近日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊发表中国股票策略观点，认为2026年全部A股盈利增速有 望从今年的6%进一步升至8%。主要支撑因素包括：名义GDP增速提升、企业营收增长、支持政策持续 出台，以及"反内卷"的推进带动利润率复苏。投资主题方面，可关注科技、"反内卷"以及中国企业出 海，下半年可择机布局消费复苏。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.4%，石油石化行业占比为32.7%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结 构和淘汰落后产能等政策。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_c ...

（一）市场回顾 本周全球股指普涨，纳斯达克指数、中国台湾加权指数和恒生科技指数领涨。A股市场方面，本周主要 指数多数收涨，微盘股、中证2000、创业板指涨幅居前。资金面来看，全A成交额已连续两周缩量，股 票型ETF资金整体净赎回，融资资金小幅买入。风格上，成长风格显著反弹，光模块、AI应用、锂电电 解液方向领涨；石油石化、银行、煤炭等红利板块下跌。大宗商品方面，金属价格上涨，伦敦现货白 银、LME铜创下历史新高；国内双焦弱势运行。 （二）市场展望：A股有望迎跨年行情布局期 展望12月，A股市场将步入国内外重要政策观察窗口，市场风险偏好或逐渐抬升，跨年行情迎来布局 期。海外方面，美联储降息概率较大，美元流动性担忧缓解和人民币汇率偏强运行，有利于外资增配中 国资产；国内方面，12月中上旬将召开政治局会议和中央经济工作会议，确定2026年经济发展目标和宏 观政策基调，反内卷、促消费、新质生产力等有望受益政策催化。以下几个方面是近期市场关注的重 点： 一、海外方面，12月美联储降息预期再起，美元流动性担忧缓解。一方面，上周五纽约联储主席威廉姆 斯表示"随着劳动力市场降温，近期仍有再次降息的空间"，其鸽派声音显著提振市 ...

Industry Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations in November, with a brief "high to low" style switch that lacked clarity in the main themes, while dividend stocks showed slight relative performance [2] - Global stock markets saw declines, influenced by fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over potential AI asset bubbles [2] - The outlook suggests that style switching may not be sustainable in the short term, with a focus on large-cap growth styles until early next year [2] Energy and Basic Materials - The "anti-involution" policy is advancing, leading to a divergence in demand between old and new economies, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace under observation [2] - Prices for various commodities showed mixed performance: thermal coal up 6%, lithium carbonate up 16%, while coking coal and iron ore prices fell by 17% and 1% respectively [2] - The U.S. government has resumed operations, alleviating some liquidity concerns, but the job market remains resilient, warranting attention to future Federal Reserve meetings [2] Industrial Products - The domestic real estate chain remains weak, while emerging markets present significant opportunities for exports [3] - In October, domestic excavator sales grew by 2% year-on-year, while export sales increased by 13% [3] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a slowdown in price increases, with prices for polysilicon and solar cells remaining stable month-on-month [3] Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are struggling, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being gradually introduced [4] - Home appliance sales have declined significantly, with washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 23%, 27%, and 24% year-on-year respectively [4] - The Central Committee has emphasized the need to stimulate consumption, with plans to create three trillion-level consumption sectors by 2027 [4] Technology - Continuous innovation in AI applications is noted, with domestic models progressing steadily [5] - The technology sector's leading stocks faced adjustments in November, but companies in communication equipment are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in North America [5] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [5] Financial Sector - Bank stocks are attracting long-term capital due to their high dividend yields and stable earnings [6] - The insurance sector saw an 8% year-on-year increase in premium income in October, with total assets growing by approximately 16% [6] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market fell to 1.9 trillion yuan in November, indicating a decline in market activity [6] Real Estate - The focus remains on destocking and debt reduction, with significant policy support anticipated [6] - In November, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 36% year-on-year, although it rose by 1% month-on-month [6] - The price index for new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities declined by 2.6% and 5.4% year-on-year respectively [6] Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, particularly in domestic computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, as well as sectors like innovative drugs and energy storage [7] - Certain non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from global monetary order restructuring and demand recovery [7] - Export performance is currently stronger than domestic demand, with companies in sectors like electrical equipment and engineering machinery showing promising prospects [7]

姑苏城外，科创潮涌。12月2日下午，"产业向新 智创苏州——2025年苏州上市公司投资者集体接待 日"将如期而至，为全球投资者开启一场与苏州产业新力量的深度对话。 本次活动由苏州市地方金融管理局指导，苏州市上市公司协会主办，深圳市全景网络有限公司协办，东 吴证券股份有限公司、广发证券股份有限公司协办，活动旨在搭建上市公司与投资者之间的高效沟通平 台，进一步提升苏州上市公司的投资价值与发展质量。 "苏州板块"业绩亮眼，市值营收双增长 在数字经济与科技创新深度融合的背景下，活动特别设置数字人播报环节，以智能化方式呈现苏州上市 公司经营亮点。此外，交易所专家与券商分析师将围绕资本市场政策、行业趋势等主题进行分享，为投 资者提供专业参考。 随着全面注册制改革的深入推进，提高上市公司质量和投资者关系管理日益重要。苏州通过举办此类活 动，不仅有助于增强市场对"苏州板块"的认知与信心，也为上市公司倾听投资者声音、优化治理结构提 供了重要契机。在产业向新、智创发展的道路上，苏州上市公司正以扎实的业绩与开放的姿态，迎接更 广阔的发展空间。 今年以来，苏州上市公司交出了一份令人瞩目的"成绩单"。截至2025年11月30日，苏州境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend strategies in investment, particularly highlighting the performance of cash flow ETFs compared to dividend ETFs and the broader market [5][15][21]. Market Performance - On November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, marking a significant single-day decline for many investors [5]. - Since the beginning of April, following the US-China tariff war, the market and most sectors have shown considerable gains until early November, leading to increased risk exposure in investor portfolios [6]. Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" combining technology and dividend stocks has been effective, with technology stocks performing well this year and dividend assets providing a buffer during market corrections [7]. - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since September, with significant declines in the 万得全 A Index during three major adjustment periods [8][9]. ETF Performance - During market corrections, dividend ETFs and cash flow ETFs demonstrated strong defensive characteristics, with dividend ETFs showing smaller declines or even gains [9]. - Cash flow ETFs have outperformed in terms of cumulative return-to-drawdown ratios, with 14 out of the top 20 strategies being cash flow ETFs [12]. Long-term Performance - Since 2014, the 国证自由现金流 index has significantly outperformed both the 深证红利 and 沪深 300 indices, with a cumulative return of 445.14% compared to 139.64% and 91.14%, respectively [14]. - During the market downturn from early 2022 to late September 2023, the 国证自由现金流 index achieved a cumulative return of 36.35%, while the other indices experienced negative returns [14]. Index Composition - The 国证自由现金流 index focuses on companies with positive free cash flow, enterprise value, and operating cash flow, selecting the top 100 stocks based on free cash flow yield [17]. - The index includes a high proportion of state-owned enterprises, with significant market capitalization among its constituents [18]. Market Trends - The current investment climate favors cash flow assets due to rising geopolitical tensions and a shift towards lower-risk investments [20]. - The largest cash flow ETF, 华夏自由现金流 ETF, has over 7 billion yuan in assets, making it a preferred choice for investors [22]. Future Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that market style rotations occur every 2-3 years, with Q4 often being a critical period for portfolio adjustments [23]. - The focus on cash flow aligns with current policy trends aimed at stabilizing the economy, making cash flow-rich sectors attractive for investment [23].