Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is at a high level; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,308 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry output at a historically high level for the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,290 | 1,308 | 1.40% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 90 | - 108 | 20.00% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate, production capacity and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual launch of 1 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [36]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from September 12. The full - latex basis decreased by 14.37%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.34%. The price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.67%, while the price of glue increased by 0.36%. Some domestic raw material prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.46%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 75.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.91% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.27%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The total import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of some dry rubbers in Thailand decreased, and the production margin of STR20 dry rubber increased by 16.72% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.30%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and soda ash has rebounded due to macro - sentiment. However, the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium - term, downstream demand will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season, with high supply, if there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Glass**: The glass market has rebounded due to the improvement of the macro - atmosphere. Last week, the spot market had good transactions and inventory decreased. However, the inventory in the middle reaches has not been significantly reduced. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 0.16%, and the glass 2509 contract decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.66%, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 1.24%, and the weekly production increased by 1.25%. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [3]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The log market shows a pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable with cost support. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the seasonal peak season. Currently, the 09 contract has new registered warehouse receipts, and the spot market pressure has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 15, the log 2509 contract decreased by 0.39%, the log 2511 contract increased by 0.81%, and the log 2601 contract decreased by 1.15%. The prices of some spot logs remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38%. As of September 12, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 302 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 50% compared with last week, and the arrival volume also decreased by 50% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily log outbound volume was 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.17 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise as raw material prices increase and the electricity price in the southwest region will go up during the dry season. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the increasing demand for downstream replenishment before the National Day, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips, but also be aware of the inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis**: On September 15, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 12.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 122.22%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased by 0.76% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 99.77%, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1750.00%, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 98.63%, the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output increased by 14.01%, Xinjiang's by 12.91%, Yunnan's by 41.19%, and Sichuan's by 10.72%. The national开工率 increased by 6.20%, Xinjiang's by 15.25%, Yunnan's by 44.09%, and Sichuan's by 19.83%. The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the output of polysilicon increased by 23.31%, the output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.93%, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.62%, the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory remained unchanged, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the contract inventory decreased by 0.19%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.86% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, the overall supply reduction in September is not obvious as some factories resume production to make up for the supply reduction. The silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The downstream has accepted the price increase of polysilicon, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, so the price fluctuation risk is high. It is advisable to be cautious and follow the situation of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer prices increased, with the 210mm silicon wafer increasing by 3.07% and the 210R silicon wafer increasing by 3.62%. Some battery and component prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.12%. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the month - on - first - continuous spread increasing by 100.22% [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 0.73%, and the weekly polysilicon output increased by 3.31%. The monthly polysilicon output increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The monthly silicon wafer output increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the polysilicon contract increased by 0.38% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is taking measures to promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries while addressing issues of low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector [1] Supply Side Pressure - The soda ash industry is entering an adjustment period starting in 2024 due to significant capacity expansion driven by high profits, with nearly 10 million tons of new capacity added in the last three years, accounting for over 20% of total capacity [2] - As of mid-September 2025, domestic soda ash production reached 20.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% [2] - The domestic soda ash operating rate was 87.29%, with a weekly production of 761,100 tons, reflecting a 1.25% increase [2] - New capacity additions in the second half of 2025 and 2026 are expected to maintain supply pressure, with significant new capacities planned by various companies [2] Downstream Demand - The demand for float glass has significantly declined due to the real estate cycle, leading to a noticeable downturn in industry prosperity [3] - As of mid-September 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.81%, while photovoltaic glass was in a loss state with a daily melting volume of 88,800 tons, down 12.27% year-on-year [3] - The float glass operating rate was 76.01%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.79 percentage points [3] Inventory Trends - The continuous addition of new capacity and declining demand for both heavy and light soda ash have exacerbated the oversupply issue, leading to increased inventory levels [4] - As of mid-September 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory stood at 1.7975 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [4] - The industry is expected to continue facing inventory accumulation, pressuring capacity clearance [4] Profit Decline - The production processes for soda ash include ammonia-soda, joint-soda, and natural soda, with respective capacity shares of 29%, 50%, and 21% [5] - The cost structure varies significantly among these processes, with raw material and fuel costs being substantial in ammonia-soda and joint-soda methods [5] - As of mid-September 2025, both joint-soda and ammonia-soda processes were operating at a loss, with profits of -36.3 yuan/ton and -54.5 yuan/ton, respectively [6] Industry Outlook and Strategy - The soda ash industry is expected to undergo a cyclical transition over the next 1-2 years, with an anticipated increase in industry concentration and a potential rise in the share of natural soda capacity [7] - Short-term trading strategies for soda ash contracts may face challenges, with strong support expected in the 1250-1300 yuan/ton range [7] - Key factors to monitor include the recovery of coal production and the implementation of policies to eliminate outdated capacity and restrict overproduction, which could alter the oversupply expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - Company is experiencing fluctuations in product and raw material prices since the beginning of the third quarter, and it plans to disclose its third-quarter report in October [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Company reported a loss of 250 million in the first half of the year [3]. - There is concern about the potential for further losses in the third quarter due to product price declines, such as the 50 yuan decrease in the price of soda ash from 1300 yuan to 1250 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The company acknowledges that both thermal coal and raw salt prices have increased in the context of industry competition, but its products are facing price reductions [3]. - The company is implementing detailed measures to increase revenue and reduce costs across all operational aspects to mitigate the impact of current market conditions [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market (excluding non - ferrous and precious metals) is in a state of oscillatory correction and volume - shrinking convergence. The black sector shows signs of stabilization and strengthening, but the suppression from the real - world situation remains. Although the short - term price of the black sector may experience periodic corrections due to real - demand factors, with the expected overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term investment around mid - October [10]. - For steel products, the demand for rebar remains weak even in the traditional peak season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. The recent increase in overseas shipments and the recovery of iron - making production support the demand for iron ore. However, attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions in finished products will spread to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term price is affected by the rise in coking coal. The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as furnace - type elimination, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases. For polysilicon, the disk price is mainly influenced by policies, and the focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [14][15]. - For glass, although the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking, the overall market supply is still abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. For soda ash, the industry supply has slightly shrunk, and the market trading atmosphere is tepid. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.287%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3369 tons to 255018 tons, and the positions increased by 65886 hands to 1.97807 million hands. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3370 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.178%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 58841 tons, and the positions increased by 22123 hands to 1.347955 million hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products is weak. The economic data in August slowed down, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and the export volume has slightly declined. The demand for rebar is sluggish, and the inventory pressure is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively neutral, with a slight reduction in inventory [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the iron ore主力合约 (I2601) was 796.00 yuan/ton, down 0.44% (- 3.50 yuan). The positions decreased by 7364 hands to 535,800 hands, and the weighted positions were 851,600 hands. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.12% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron - ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. The iron - making production has recovered, and the short - term demand for iron ore is supported. The port inventory and steel - mill imported - ore inventory have both increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On September 15, the manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) rose 1.27% to close at 5906 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) rose 1.64% to close at 5700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support at 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. For ferrosilicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support at 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63% (+ 55 yuan). The weighted positions increased by 20228 hands to 507,832 hands. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The production capacity is in surplus, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is insufficient. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination, the price may rise; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 53545 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (- 65 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 1472 hands to 300,197 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type recycled material was 51.55 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 1995 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk price is mainly influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and part of the inventory has been transferred downstream. The price of N - type dense and recycled materials has increased, and the component segment is relatively stalemate. Pay attention to capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the glass主力合约 was 1185 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4 yuan). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%) to 615.83 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 60190 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 7686 hands [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking. However, the overall market supply is abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the soda - ash主力合约 was 1287 yuan/ton, up 0.47% (+ 6 yuan). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1197 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%) to 179.75 million tons, with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 1480 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4605 hands [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has slightly shrunk due to production - line overhauls. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most purchase based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the soda ash industry has been alleviated in the short term, but the oversupply situation is difficult to improve in the long term. The downstream products may provide slight support for the soda ash price, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8][9]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase in early September 2025, driven by strong demand. The supply - side pressure of float glass has eased marginally, and the cost side has some support, but the demand side is weak. The glass futures main contract is expected to show a short - term upward - fluctuating trend [10][11]. Group 4: Soda Ash Market Market Data - On September 15, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 1.71%, with a daily reduction of 1607 lots [7][8]. Fundamentals - Weekly production increased to 76.11 tons, a 1.24% week - on - week increase, but the industry still faced high inventory and weak demand. The factory inventory decreased to 179.75 tons, 2.46 tons less than last Thursday, but remained at a high level [8]. - The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 78.57 tons, a 1.44% week - on - week decrease, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a 2.81 - percentage - point decrease [8]. Outlook - The industry contradiction has been alleviated in the short term, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The downstream float glass has stable daily melting volume, and the photovoltaic glass has good production and sales, which may support the soda ash price slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [9]. Group 5: Glass Market Market Data - On September 15, the FG601 contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 2.72%, with an increase of 30057 lots in positions [7]. Fundamentals - In early September 2025, the domestic photovoltaic glass market saw a price increase due to strong demand. The float glass supply - side pressure has eased, and the cost side has support, but the demand side is weak [10][11]. Outlook - The glass futures main contract is expected to show a short - term upward - fluctuating trend [11].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a volatile upward trend on September 15, with the Chemical ETF (516020) closing up by 0.13% [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery, titanium dioxide, and fluorochemical sectors saw significant gains, with Tianqi Lithium hitting the daily limit, Longbai Group rising by 5.09%, and multiple other companies increasing by over 3% [1][3] - Analysts attribute the surge in the lithium battery sector to four main positive drivers, including new payment norms from the China Automotive Industry Association and a recent action plan for green transformation in Fujian [3] Group 2 - The recent issuance of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration has contributed to market optimism [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have jointly issued a growth plan for the automotive industry, aiming for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, including 15.5 million new energy vehicles [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.29, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] Group 3 - Guohai Securities suggests that the Chinese chemical industry may undergo a revaluation, with potential for increased cash flow and higher dividend yields as global capacity expansion slows [4] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates that fiscal policies in China and the U.S. may strengthen, leading to a potential upturn in the chemical sector [5] - The chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment approach, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap leading stocks, which may enhance investment efficiency [5]

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]