1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Recent oil price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical events in the Middle East and the cold wave in the United States. With geopolitical premiums declining and significant inventory builds in crude oil and refined products, oil prices are under pressure. However, the cold wave in the US has boosted overseas natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil, supporting oil prices. Currently, crude oil's own driving forces are limited, and short - term oil prices are still dominated by news. Brent crude should be watched for resistance above $66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices remained basically flat, with a dull market sentiment and mainly downstream rigid demand procurement. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, and the comprehensive output slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the weekly shipment volume and shipment rate increased month - on - month, with little change in the float glass production line, and the weekly output and industry average capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. The photovoltaic glass had no new kiln shutdowns, and the in - production capacity and capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. Affected by the expected export - grabbing policy, the photovoltaic glass price remained stable, and the inventory continued to decline. Although the in - plant inventory of soda ash decreased overall and the macro sentiment improved recently, in the context of generally weak fundamentals, the short - term soda ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices showed regional differentiation, with the overall spot price center rising slightly month - on - month. The profits of glass made from different fuels changed little overall, with the profit of petroleum coke - made glass turning negative. The spot market still mainly had rigid - demand transactions. On the supply side, the daily melting volume continued to increase slightly month - on - month, while the start - up rate and industry average capacity utilization rate remained basically flat. On the demand side, the performance of deep - processing orders was differentiated, and the start - up rate of Low - e glass was still at a relatively weak level. Real estate - related data showed that the industry was still in the adjustment stage. The shipment situation of glass enterprises varied, and the inventory also fluctuated. The overall in - plant inventory remained at a high level. As the Spring Festival approached and the consumption off - season arrived, downstream demand gradually decreased, and manufacturers were more willing to actively reduce inventory. It is expected that the rebound space of the futures price is limited, and the short - term trend will remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene continued to improve slightly, with a slight decrease in supply and a continued increase in the downstream comprehensive load. The port inventory decreased, but the absolute level of port inventory remained high, and its own driving force was still limited. Recently, styrene was driven by exports, and its port inventory decreased significantly. Coupled with news of unexpected shutdowns of domestic and foreign plants, the styrene trend was strong, driving up the absolute price of pure benzene. Recently, the profit of styrene has expanded significantly, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. However, styrene's downstream has cut production due to increased losses, and there are expectations of restarting two maintenance plants next week. It is expected that the room for further expansion of the price difference is limited, and there is an expectation of compression. Strategically, the unilateral fluctuation is large, so it is advisable to wait and see; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - **Styrene**: Driven by previous exports, the port inventory of styrene continued to decline, and the circulating supply was limited. The short - term supply - demand situation was temporarily tight. Coupled with the shutdown of the Xuyang styrene plant and the reduction of the load of the Tianjin Bohua plant during the week, the styrene futures price continued to rise. However, currently, the styrene industry has good profits, and the overall start - up is stable, with active forward over - sales. The downstream industry's losses have expanded, and some plants have shut down, actively selling styrene raw materials and downstream product inventories. Overall, the short - term supply - demand of styrene is temporarily tight. Coupled with the overall strength of the chemical sector driven by the inflow of off - industry funds, the short - term increase in styrene is significant. However, there are no new positive factors in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is intensifying, and there are expectations of restarting the Sinopec Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua plants next week. The short - term capital game has intensified, and caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see unilaterally; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and shutdown, with a shrinking total supply and rising overseas raw material prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively high proportion of European exports have sufficient recent foreign trade orders, and their production has maintained a relatively high - level. Currently, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, but domestic sales have been slow, mostly maintaining rigid - demand sales, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high. In terms of inventory, China's natural rubber social inventory has continued the inventory accumulation trend. In summary, in the short term, driven by the strength of the synthetic rubber market, the natural rubber market has a strong bullish sentiment. However, considering the weak demand, it is expected that there is still significant upward pressure, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins were jointly driven by the rotation of funds into the chemical sector, geopolitical tensions, and the possible impact of the North American cold wave on supply, and their prices strengthened rapidly at the end of the week. From a static fundamental perspective, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory was destocked. The upstream inventory was low, and the price - holding intention was strong, but agents sold at a loss, the basis weakened significantly, and hedgers had no risk - free positions. Dynamically, for PP, due to many maintenance plans, the supply pressure has been relieved. Currently, the PDH profit is still low, and the production reduction drive is strong. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal plant maintenance. For PE, the maintenance has decreased, and the import is expected to be under pressure. Some full - density plants have switched to LLD production, increasing the pressure on standard products, and the demand has entered the off - season, with the downstream start - up rate weakening. In terms of sentiment, the short - covering demand has been released, and the overall trading volume this week was weaker than last week [9]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chips - **PX**: With high - profit margins, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production, and currently, the PX load in Asia and China is at a historical high. In January, PX supply remained high. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA in the first quarter has weakened compared to expectations. It is expected that PX's own driving force will be limited before the Spring Festival. However, as PX trading switches to the March - April period, supported by tight supply - demand in the second quarter, the low - price support for PX is relatively strong. Last week, the cold wave in the US boosted overseas natural gas prices, which had a positive impact on some domestic chemical products (such as styrene, ethylene glycol, and some products with natural gas as raw material). At the same time, off - industry funds flowed into the chemical sector, driving up PX in the short term. However, the PX high point did not reach the mid - December high, and the physical PX market was slow to follow the increase. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern of PX, caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of funds. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton for PX, reduce long positions, and conduct mid - term rolling long - biased operations [11]. - **PTA**: Recently, there have been few changes in PTA plants. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded, the PTA supply - demand has gradually weakened, and the spot basis has weakened. Recently, driven by the large - scale inflow of funds into the chemical sector and the expectation of improved PTA supply - demand in the second quarter, the PTA futures price has increased significantly, and the PTA futures processing margin has expanded significantly. However, due to the large inventory build - up pressure in February in advance, PTA's own driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. Caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance above 5,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce long positions; conduct long - spread operations on the TA5 - 9 spread at low levels [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near - term, ethylene glycol is still facing significant inventory build - up pressure. Since there are few domestic ethylene glycol plant maintenance plans from January to February, and with the commissioning of new plants such as Ningxia Changyi and BASF, the domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level. At the same time, the polyester plant production cut - back and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand have weakened the demand support for ethylene glycol. From the information of arrived and forecasted shipping schedules, the reduction rate of ethylene glycol imports is slow, and the inventory build - up amplitude from January to February is expected to be high. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve in the second quarter, and inventory is expected to be reduced, mainly due to the shutdown of multiple large - scale domestic ethylene glycol plants and the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants, which will significantly reduce the supply expectation. Strategically, conduct long - spread operations on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels; sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high levels [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and the number of yarn mills reducing or stopping production will increase around the end of the month. Recently, the sharp increase in the cost side has driven up the short - fiber price, and some downstream enterprises have followed up with replenishment. However, as the demand side weakens, the downstream is mostly waiting and seeing after the short - fiber price increase. The market will enter a digestion stage later. Overall, the absolute price driving force of short - fiber before the festival is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PF03 is the same as that of PTA; the PF futures processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short the spread when it is high [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Recently, the implementation of maintenance plans for multiple polyester bottle - chip plants has been carried out one after another. In particular, a 1.2 - million - ton - per - year polyester bottle - chip plant in Jiangyin has been shut down since mid - January and will be under maintenance until March. There are still maintenance plans at the end of January. The domestic supply is expected to decrease significantly, and recently, the plants have continued to reduce inventory, supporting the processing margin. At the same time, the demand will weaken seasonally. With both supply and demand decreasing, it is expected that the absolute price and processing margin of bottle chips from January to February will still follow the cost - side fluctuations. Strategically, pay attention to the support around 6,200 yuan/ton for PR2603; the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton; sell out - of - the - money put options PR2603 - P - 6200 at high levels [11]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inland plant inventory has decreased, but the high production volume restricts the rebound space, and the demand is expected to decline in the future. Although the port inventory has slightly decreased, the MTO demand is weak (many plants are under maintenance or have reduced loads), and the inventory reduction amplitude of the 05 contract has significantly weakened, suppressing the price rebound height. Currently, there are two key variables in the market: one is the reduction of imported methanol arrivals under the background of low methanol production in Iran. As of the latest data, the shipment volume from Iran is 350,000 tons; the other is the risk premium brought by geopolitical factors [13][14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the prices of caustic soda in the mainstream regions continued to decline. The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. Low - price transactions frequently occurred during the week, impacting the market. The unloading of products by the main downstream enterprises was still difficult, and the order transactions were light. From the supply side, there were sporadic short - term shutdowns of chlor - alkali plants last week, but some chlor - alkali plants that had previously reduced loads resumed production, increasing the operating load rate. High - level operation combined with difficult sales led to continued inventory accumulation of caustic soda last week. On the demand side, the unloading situation of the two main downstream industries was poor. Under the strong chlorine situation, enterprises had no incentive to reduce production, and the problem of product backlogs at downstream enterprises continued. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the caustic soda price is under pressure in the short term and is still expected to decline. This week, the East China region faces monthly order contracts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been alleviated. Coupled with the weak price transmission in the main regions, it is expected that the caustic soda market will continue to be weak [15]. - **PVC**: Last week, the domestic PVC price fluctuated after an increase, supported by positive economic expectations and bullish long - term expectations for commodities. The short - term increase in commodity prices in the market slightly pushed up the spot price. From the supply side, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased last week, and some enterprises had unplanned production cuts. However, the overall supply remained at a high level. The downstream production demand gradually weakened before the Spring Festival, and the foreign trade exports continued to be good but decreased in volume month - on - month. The inventory accumulation pressure before the festival in the industry continued. Currently, the macro - economic expectations are relatively strong, and combined with the strong PVC exports, the PVC price trend is relatively firm. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday, the industry inventory is accumulating rapidly, and combined with the weak support from raw material calcium carbide, the expected significant increase in price is limited. In the short term, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern due to the cost support at the bottom and the supply - demand pressure at the top. It is expected that the PVC operating rate will continue to decline this week. Currently, some downstream enterprises are having pre - festival promotions, and the operating rate has increased. The export is expected to remain strong. However, considering that some downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable [15]. Urea - On January 23, the urea futures price fluctuated and closed higher, and the spot price increased slightly overall. Some regions raised their ex - factory quotes, but the downstream acceptance of the price was limited, and there were still some orders at low prices. New order transactions were relatively cautious. There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week. As the previously shut - down plants gradually resume production, the daily urea output fluctuates around the high level of 200,000 tons, and the short - term supply of goods is sufficient. In terms of demand, there is still some agricultural demand in the Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong regions. The compound fertilizer industry is expected to reduce its operating rate due to the decrease in finished product sales volume. The operating rate of the board industry gradually decreases in the twelfth lunar month, and the overall industrial demand for urea has weakened. Urea inventory continued to decline this week, and the inventory reduction rhythm was faster than in previous years. This week, urea enterprises have successively launched the Spring Festival order - receiving plan, and it is expected that the inventory will be further reduced. Overall, the urea price is still restricted by the weak supply - demand situation, and the market transactions need to increase. However, the agricultural demand in some regions and the inventory reduction expectation have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term. The main urea contract should be watched in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream demand and the inventory reduction rhythm [16]. LPG - No specific views on the LPG market trend and investment strategies are provided in the LPG report. It only presents price, inventory, and operating rate data [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On January 23, Brent crude was at $64.06 per barrel, down $1.82 or 2.84% from January 22; WTI was at $59.36 per barrel, up $1.71 or 2.88

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Long - term**: The steel market maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, with limited inventory pressure, but weak real - estate data drags down demand. Iron ore overseas supply continues to shrink, and the inventory is transferred from ports to steel mills. The long - term prices of steel and iron ore are under pressure. The glass market has a weak fundamental pattern, and the long - term price is also under pressure. The soda ash supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high supply and inventory accumulation [78][82] - **Short - term**: Rebar and iron ore show a short - term oscillating trend. Glass and soda ash may rebound with macro - sentiment in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [79][83] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: From January 16 to January 23, 2026, the closing prices of most black - series futures contracts decreased. For example, the RB2605 rebar contract decreased from 3163 to 3142, a decrease of 21 with a decline rate of 1%. The HC2605 hot - rolled coil contract decreased from 3315 to 3305, a decrease of 10 with a decline rate of 0%. The I2605 iron ore contract decreased from 812 to 795, a decrease of 17 with a decline rate of 2%. The J2605 coke contract increased from 1717 to 1722, an increase of 5 with an increase rate of 0%. The JM2605 coking coal contract decreased from 1171 to 1157, a decrease of 14 with a decline rate of 1%. The FG605 glass contract decreased from 1103 to 1064, a decrease of 39 with a decline rate of 4%. The SA605 soda ash contract increased from 1192 to 1198, an increase of 6 with an increase rate of 1% [3] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices and basis of each variety are also provided. For example, the rebar spot price is 3270, and the basis is 128; the hot - rolled coil spot price is 3290, and the basis is - 15 [3] - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On January 22, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 65 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Rebar - **Supply Side**: As of January 23, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons; the rebar output was 199.55 tons, an increase of 9.25 tons [13] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 23, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 185.52 tons, a decrease of 4.82 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 71531 tons [19] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 303.12 tons, an increase of 7.71 tons compared with the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 148.98 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons compared with the previous week [24] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 16, the global iron ore shipment volume was reported at 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 251 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2897.7 tons, a decrease of 117.3 tons compared with the previous week [29] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 17496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9388.82 tons, an increase of 126.6 tons compared with the previous week [34] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 23, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 320.5 tons, a decrease of 14.5 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was reported at 91.3 tons [39] 3.4 Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 23, the number of operating float glass production lines was reported at 212, the same as the previous week; the weekly output was reported at 1055215 tons, an increase of 2900 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 75.57%, and the operating rate was reported at 71.62% [44] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 5321.58 million weight - boxes, an increase of 20.28 million weight - boxes compared with the previous week; the available days of in - plant inventory were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous week [49] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 16, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.3 days [53] - **Production Profit**: In the week of January 23, the production gross profit of the float process using coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using petroleum coke as fuel was - 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [57] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 86.42%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was reported at 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons compared with the previous week [60] - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 152.12 tons, a decrease of 5.38 tons compared with the previous week [65] - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: As of January 23, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was reported at 106.98%, an increase of 7.28 percentage points compared with the previous week [70] - **Enterprise Profit**: As of January 22, the profit of ammonia - soda enterprises was reported at - 23 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the profit of combined - soda enterprises was reported at - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock", indicating a volatile trend in the short term [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and led to a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Despite high exports alleviating some pressure, the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash futures contract strengthened with fluctuations during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks contracted, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday resistance was near the 60 - day moving average, and the short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 77,654 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest decreased by 17,937 lots. The intraday high was 1200, the low was 1178, and the closing price was 1198, up 24 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market was slightly stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Jiangsu Huachang had a short - term shutdown. The supply was adjusted at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, and buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27 percentage points, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory decreased by 12,500 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. Buyers mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous month. During the week, the raw material salt price was stable, and the thermal coal price fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary - The soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and new production capacity is gradually being released, leading to an increase in overall output. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and caused a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. High exports alleviate some pressure, but the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. It is necessary to continue to monitor downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is in a weak supply - demand situation with continuous inventory accumulation expected in 2026. Attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7][8]. - For asphalt, demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of Venezuelan raw materials which may be the main support [31]. - PTA is expected to rise first and then fall with a downward - shifted price center, while ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure for shock consolidation [56]. - The polyolefin market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to structural short - selling opportunities [74]. - Pulp maintains a wide - range shock trend with pressure on the upside and support on the downside [110]. - The soda ash market is under pressure from increasing supply and shrinking demand, and is likely to continue a weak operation in the long - term, with short - term shock operation expected [153]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Weather speculation has ended, and the market is in shock. Supply - demand is weak, and attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Three major institutions' January reports show a pessimistic outlook for 2026, with continuous inventory accumulation. US refinery data is also bearish [8]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak, and Venezuelan situation drives the price up. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak [30]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak. Spot prices in some areas change slightly, and the average domestic price drops slightly. Supply and profit change, and demand is weak with inventory changes [32][33][34]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: PTA first falls and then rises, and is expected to rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol first suppresses and then rises, and is expected to be under pressure [55][56]. - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption demand weakens. PTA supply is stable, and the price may rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol has a trend of inventory accumulation and is expected to be under pressure [57][58][60]. Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Futures prices first fall and then rise. The market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [73][74]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Polypropylene and polyethylene production increase. Production profits vary. Inventory shows a differentiated structure, and downstream start - up levels have different performances [75][79][84]. Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp contract price rises slightly, and the spot price is weak. It maintains a wide - range shock [109][110]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Pulp shipping volume, import volume, inventory, and downstream market have different changes [111][117][131]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price first falls and then rebounds, with a stable price center. Supply pressure is high, demand shrinks, and inventory decreases. It is expected to be in shock in the short - term and weak in the long - term [146][153]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, inventory decreases but the core contradiction remains, spot prices are stable, and downstream demand has different impacts [154][164][173].

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The fundamentals of steel are under continued pressure, and steel prices are fluctuating [1] Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures fluctuated and rose yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, with dull production and sales by manufacturers and a cold trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a 0.38% increase from the previous week [2] - Soda ash futures also fluctuated and rose yesterday, with limited rigid demand procurement from downstream. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5212 million tons, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week [2] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the procurement by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure is expected to ease, and the market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [2] - The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has increased. Considering the upcoming new production projects in the future and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [2] Strategy - The glass market is expected to be in a state of fluctuation, while the soda ash market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Group 3: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - The main contract of silicon manganese opened lower and moved higher yesterday, with trading volume increasing as the market fluctuated at a high level. The cost support for the alloy is acceptable. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5,570 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [4] - The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated strongly yesterday, and the market adjusted slightly, with strong cautious waiting - and - seeing sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade natural block silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon is 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton [4] Supply - Demand and Logic - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities coming on - stream, so the supply - demand is still relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff policy changes in South Africa may increase the cost of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [4] - The fundamental contradictions of silicon ferrosilicon are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage inventory replenishment, the demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices this year and the overall over - capacity of silicon ferrosilicon, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon ferrosilicon and the electricity price policies in production areas [4] Strategy - Both the silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are expected to be in a state of fluctuation [5]

Oil Market - Oil prices fell on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing down $1.26 at $59.36 per barrel, a decline of 2.08% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.18 at $64.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [2] - EIA report indicated an increase in crude oil inventory by 3.6 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase [2] - Gasoline inventory reached its highest level since 2021, with exports dropping by over 500,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the drone attack on a major Russian oil terminal, continue to impact oil prices [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 1.89% to 2592 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.65% to 3135 yuan/ton [3] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels (8.22%) week-on-week, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 13,600 barrels (1.35%) [3] - The market structure for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply from Venezuela [3][4] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.45% to 3157 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments increasing by 15.1% week-on-week [5] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers decreased by 0.5% week-on-week but increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] - The market is currently balancing weak demand with strong cost expectations, influenced by geopolitical tensions [5] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 105 yuan/ton to 15850 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [6] - China's rubber tire production is projected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year, while synthetic rubber production is expected to decline by 20.2% [6] - The rise in butadiene rubber prices is attributed to supply shortages and increased demand from tire manufacturers [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5298 yuan/ton, up 2.79%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 4.28% [7] - PX futures closed at 7390 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.55% increase [7] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 73.04%, down 1.39% week-on-week [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2238 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $260 to $264 per ton [8] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [8] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to pressure from port inventory [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - HDPE and LDPE prices have increased compared to last week, indicating a recovery in demand [9] - Inventory levels are expected to rise as factories prepare for the upcoming holiday [9] PVC - PVC prices have increased across various regions, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4530 to 4630 yuan/ton [10] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing down, leading to a bearish outlook [10] - The market is expected to experience bottoming trends due to changes in export tax policies [10] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1776 yuan/ton [11] - Demand is expected to remain strong due to pre-spring planting preparations, although market acceptance of prices will be crucial [11] - Urea inventory has decreased by 4.07%, supporting manufacturers' pricing strategies [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased to 1185 yuan/ton, with stable pricing in the market [12] - Recent production rates have shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease in output [12] - The market is expected to face pressure from rising supply and stable demand [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight increase, closing at 1057 yuan/ton, with stable demand observed [14] - The industry is preparing for potential production increases, but seasonal demand may decline as the holiday approaches [14] - Overall supply-demand dynamics remain challenging, with expectations of inventory accumulation [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It's advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed higher, showing a slightly stronger intraday trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are opening downward, indicating a short - term continuation of the weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 30 - and 20 - day moving averages, and support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 172,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 13,245 lots. The intraday high was 1185, the low was 1159, and the closing price was 1185, up 17 yuan/ton or 1.46% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It showed a light and stable oscillation. The enterprise equipment is gradually increasing. Wucai Alkali Industry's equipment has resumed operation, while Xuzhou Fengcheng has slightly reduced production. The overall supply continues to increase, but downstream demand is average, with cautious purchasing and mainly low - price demand - based procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1250, and the basis is 65 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, domestic soda ash production was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. Light soda ash production was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons; heavy soda ash production was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons and above was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% compared to Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared to last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, light soda ash was 824,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,500 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2][3] - **Demand**: The soda ash enterprise's shipment volume was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (per two tons) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production is constantly increasing. There is still an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, and the rigid demand for soda ash may further weaken. In general, under the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction continues to intensify. Although exports remain high, alleviating some pressure, the high inventory pressure still restricts price rebounds [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The resumption of production lines in the glass and soda ash sectors has led to a decline in their futures prices. The double - silicon market is suppressed by inventory, and the alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Group 3: Glass Market - Market performance: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, and the trading atmosphere in both futures and spot markets was cold [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has improved slightly, but the terminal rigid demand for float glass is difficult to break through in the off - season. In the short term, the glass futures maintain a premium. The glass industry still needs to reduce prices to further cut production due to high inventory. Future focus is on cold - repair and speculative activities [1] Group 4: Soda Ash Market - Market performance: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. The spot market was cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is increasing. New production capacity and the resumption of some devices have increased production, keeping the supply at a high level. The rigid demand from downstream float glass is average, and the demand improvement in photovoltaic glass is limited. If the weak fundamentals continue, soda ash will face further downward pressure. Future focus is on float glass production line changes and new soda ash production projects [1] Group 5: Silicomanganese Market - Market performance: The main contract of silicomanganese continued its weak oscillation yesterday, with limited price fluctuations and small trading volume changes. The 6517 silicomanganese price is 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but inventory pressure is still large, and new production capacity is being added. The supply - demand situation is still loose. There is an expected increase in pig iron production and pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills, which may improve demand. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Future focus is on manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Market - Market performance: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated yesterday. As the January steel procurement is coming to an end, the ferrosilicon market has adjusted slightly, with reduced enthusiasm from traders. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamental contradictions in the ferrosilicon market are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, demand is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has affected market sentiment, but the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and overall over - capacity in the ferrosilicon industry will suppress price increases. Future focus is on inventory reduction and electricity price policies in production areas [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short term, although sentiment is slightly supported by macro news, considering the intensifying industrial contradiction of supply surplus, it is advisable to adopt the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes in the future [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main contract of soda ash opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend during the day. The three tracks of the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened downward, indicating a short - term weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume decreased by 127,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 19,651 lots. The intraday high was 1179, the low was 1161, and the closing price was 1163, down 19 yuan/ton (1.61% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1]. - **Spot market**: It showed a stable and slightly volatile trend. The enterprise equipment had minor adjustments, Jiangsu Debang resumed operation, production increased, and the supply remained at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, the purchasing sentiment was poor, and the demand was mainly for low - price and essential needs [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 87 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons (2.88% increase). Among them, the light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, compared with 84.39% last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons (1.96% decline) compared with last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the essential demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains at a high level, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. There is still an expectation of cold repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, and the essential demand for soda ash may further weaken. [4]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-21 期货震荡偏弱，现货谨慎观望 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏弱，玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现市场交投氛围冷清。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾虽有所好转，但浮法玻璃终端刚需淡季难有突破。短期在投机性需求提升和节后 旺季预期的共同作用下，玻璃期货维持升水。考虑到玻璃面临化解高库存的任务，因此依旧需要通过压价达到进 一步减产的目的。后期关注玻璃冷修和投机情况。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡运下跌，现货方面，市场以观望谨慎态度对待，下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，新投产能叠加部分装置恢复带动产量增加，供应维持高位，高供应持续压 制纯碱价格；需求端，下游浮法玻璃刚需一般，光伏玻璃需求改善有限，刚需持稳而投机需求不足。后续若基本 面延续弱现实格局，叠加期现贸易商主动抛货离场的悲观情绪传导，纯碱将面临进一步下行压力，关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双 ...