1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Shanghai's real - estate favorable policies and the expected blast furnace production cuts during major meetings have warmed the market atmosphere, leading to a low - level rebound in the futures market. However, there are still inventory pressures in steel, iron ore, and other sectors, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's post - holiday demand expectations are average. The upside space of the sector's futures market is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore inventory pressure is still accumulating, and there are still weather - related supply disruptions. The market's post - holiday demand expectations are average, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions, there are still macro - level expectations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. During the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of scrap steel were both weak, with limited fundamental drivers and little price fluctuation [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the Spring Festival, there is a slight growth expectation for both coke supply and demand. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the coke inventory accumulation of coke enterprises will be alleviated, and the coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still restricted. The fundamental contradictions of coking coal are not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [2] 3.3 Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply exceeds demand, and the upstream inventory is increasing. There is continuous pressure on the upper side of the futures market. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the room for further decline is limited under cost support. It is expected that the main contract will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation. In the ferrosilicon market, supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are not significant. The room for further decline in the futures market is limited under cost support, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the short term. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate at a low level around the cost [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions in glass, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. Without more cold repairs, high inventory will always suppress prices. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering. Before the festival, the steel mill's production resumption accelerated, but the overall output was at a relatively low level. Demand was weak during the off - season and the holiday, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Although there are positive news on the supply and real - estate sides, and there are still policy expectations before the Two Sessions, the inventory pressure still exists, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the upside of the futures market is still under pressure [6] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and Australian shipments recovered. The arrival of goods continued to weaken, but is expected to pick up later. The demand side saw a marginal increase in rigid demand. The port inventory pressure was temporarily relieved, but the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosted market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - After the Spring Festival, the arrival of scrap steel is slowly recovering, and the absolute level is still low. During the festival, most electric furnaces were shut down, and the daily consumption of scrap steel was at a seasonal low. The inventory is expected to decline. During the Spring Festival, supply and demand were both weak, with limited price fluctuations. After the festival, attention should be paid to policy guidance and actual demand [9] 3.5.4 Coke - During the Spring Festival, coke supply and demand were both weak. After the spot price increase was implemented, it remained stable, and the futures market followed the cost - end coking coal. After the festival, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand. As logistics recovers, the inventory accumulation of coke enterprises will be alleviated. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [10] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - During the Spring Festival, coking coal supply and demand were both weak, and the price oscillated. After the festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still restricted. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] 3.5.6 Glass - The spot price has risen, and the loss is limited, so there will be no large - scale cold repairs in the short term. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has not recovered, and the real demand needs to be verified after the Lantern Festival. The large inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the glass valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The daily production increased month - on - month. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for heavy soda ash will weaken due to the expected decline in glass melting. The overall procurement of light soda ash downstream has not changed much. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long term [12] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Favorable real - estate policies and the expected blast furnace production cuts during major meetings have led to a strong upward oscillation of the manganese - silicon futures market. After the festival, the market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory is expected to increase. The current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost [14] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The futures price of ferrosilicon has moved up slightly. The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the cost support has slightly weakened. The supply and demand are both weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost [15] 3.6 Index Information - On February 25, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2431.43, up 0.56%; the commodity 20 index was 2783.62, up 0.64%; the industrial products index was 2314.55, up 0.63%. The steel industry chain index on February 25, 2026, was 1911.09, with a daily increase of 0.97%, a 5 - day decline of 0.87%, a 1 - month decline of 3.06%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.28% [102][104]

Group 1 - The company will hold its third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on March 13, 2026, with both on-site and online voting options available [2][3][4] - The meeting will discuss several proposals, including the investment in a new soda ash production facility aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and environmental sustainability [18][53] - The company plans to invest approximately 483.68 million yuan in the project, which will replace an outdated production line and improve resource utilization [18][27][29] Group 2 - The project aims to achieve a production capacity of 1 million tons per year using a more efficient production method, replacing the existing 1.2 million tons per year capacity [21][27] - The investment is expected to generate an average annual revenue of 215.73 million yuan and a net profit of 27.09 million yuan after tax [29] - The company will also engage in futures hedging activities to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in its main products, with a maximum investment of 1.6 billion yuan allocated for this purpose [36][38][51]

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Group 1 - The company Shandong Haohua (000822.SZ) plans to invest 4.837 billion yuan in a project aimed at enhancing the quality, efficiency, energy conservation, and environmental protection of its soda ash production facilities [1] - The project involves the reconstruction and expansion of the soda ash plant, replacing the existing 1.2 million tons/year ammonia-soda process capacity with a new 1 million tons/year integrated soda ash process capacity [1] - The project will utilize existing facilities from the old ammonia-soda line, including calcination, compression, packaging, storage, and some public engineering facilities, thereby optimizing resource use [1] Group 2 - The new project will employ advanced synthesis gas and integrated soda production technology, which is expected to reduce production operating costs and land usage while enhancing product competitiveness [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haohua plans to invest 4.837 billion yuan to upgrade its traditional chemical industry, focusing on green and low-carbon sustainable development [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - The company will implement a project titled "Energy and Resource Comprehensive Utilization-based Soda Ash Quality Improvement and Energy-saving Environmental Protection Renovation" [1] - The ammonia-soda transformation project is planned to have an annual production capacity of 1 million tons, replacing the existing 1.2 million tons Solvay (ammonia-soda method) capacity, with a capacity replacement ratio of 1.2:1 [1] - The project aligns with national industrial policies by adopting a reduction replacement strategy [1] Group 2: Environmental Goals - The core objective of the project is to achieve energy green and low-carbon transformation [1] - The project aims to establish a green low-carbon technology system through dual pathways of "green electricity substitution" and "direct supply cost reduction" [1] - It is designed to facilitate the company's early layout for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, promoting a green low-carbon transformation of the enterprise [1] Group 3: Production Capacity - The project includes the construction of a new 400,000 tons/year ammonia facility [1] - It will also establish a new 1 million tons/year soda ash facility, producing 400,000 tons of light soda ash, 600,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and generating 1.03 million tons of ammonium chloride as a byproduct [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The weak real - estate data has suppressed the rebound height of glass, but with the approaching of the traditional glass consumption season, attention should be paid to the potential for a phased consumption increase and continuous inventory reduction. For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand remains relatively loose [1]. - After the holiday, with the resumption of production in downstream steel mills, the demand for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is expected to improve. However, factors such as inventory pressure, cost support, and power price policies will affect their prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The futures market showed a strong - oscillating trend and recovered at the end of the session. In the spot market, the shipment of factories in the Shahe area was good, while the trading in the East China market was average, and the prices in other regions were generally stable. The spot price of float glass was 1269 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Soda Ash: The futures market also showed a strong - oscillating trend and recovered at the end. The domestic soda ash market was weak, with prices declining slightly. The inventory reduction rate slowed down and gradually shifted to inventory accumulation. The latest soda ash operating rate was 83.83%, and the device operation was normal [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The weak real - estate data has limited the rebound of glass. As it enters the traditional consumption season, attention should be paid to consumption and inventory changes. Currently, it is in the stage of near - month capital game [1]. - Soda Ash: The demand for float glass is weak due to real - estate data. After the spring maintenance, there is pressure for further inventory increase, and the long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Ferromanganese: After the holiday, the ferromanganese futures market oscillated and adjusted, with a single - day increase in positions of 41,065. The market was in a wait - and - see state. The price in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market declined slightly after the holiday, with a single - day increase in positions of 15,984. The spot market was stable, waiting for the recovery of steel mills' rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Ferromanganese: The fundamental contradiction has not further expanded, but the inventory pressure is still large. With the resumption of production in steel mills after the holiday, the demand is expected to improve. The firm price of manganese ore may increase the cost of ferromanganese [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply pressure has decreased as enterprises maintain low - load production. The resumption of production in steel mills will boost the rigid demand. However, the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and the relatively loose overall production capacity will suppress the price [3]. - **Strategy** - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-25 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统征收大规模关税，对特朗普政府"关税牌"形成掣肘。目前对华整体 关税为 35%，其中原有 25%关税仍然生效，两项基于 IEEPA 征收的 10%关税被裁定非法，后续或以新的全球 关税加以替代，但具体实施细节尚未明确。海外政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价 格形成扰动。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后，需重点关注 板材需求恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际变化。短期内黑色系大概率延续区 间偏弱震荡格局，趋势性机会尚未明朗。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has generally continued to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high in the same period [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,110 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 40 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [3]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [3][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [3]. 3.2 Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the output remains stable [4]. - **Negative factors**: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,162 | 1,150 | - 1.03% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,110 | 1,110 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 52 | - 40 | - 23.08% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,110 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [13]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 97 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - **Operating rate and production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.25%. The weekly production of soda ash is 774,300 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 414,000 tons, and the production is at a historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, and the actual put - into - production capacity was 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and sales rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.06% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [28]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].