Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7]. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of this week, the macro and policy fronts "paused", and the subsequent inventory pressure corresponding to the high arrival of iron ore made the iron ore price relatively under pressure. After entering November, the molten iron output will decline seasonally, weakening the demand support for the furnace charge end. However, seasonal production cuts rather than negative - feedback production cuts will put relatively limited downward pressure on the prices of industrial chain varieties. If the macro and policy levels release positive news later, it will still support the prices of sector varieties [1][2]. - The fundamentals of the industrial chain will gradually weaken marginally. Since the decline in molten iron is mainly due to the seasonal production cuts of steel enterprises, the negative feedback on sector varieties is limited. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of macro and policy introduction and pay attention to phased upward opportunities [7]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - The arrival rhythm of iron ore is significantly disturbed, and the port inventory is rapidly accumulating. The fundamentals of iron ore are not optimistic, but the decline of ore price is limited. The scrap steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate following the finished products in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke continues to strengthen, and the third round of price increase is expected to be implemented. However, under the pressure on both coking and steel mill profits, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, with the price expected to oscillate [2]. Alloy - The high steel output and stable cost support the prices of ferromanganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, but the supply of ferromanganese - silicon is expected to remain high, with inventory pressure and limited upward driving force. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Some production lines in the Shahe area stopped production, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. If the production and sales remain weak, the price will return to weak oscillation. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline oscillating. The over - supply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [3]. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The molten iron output declines, the five major steel products output increases, the demand continues to recover, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The short - term market is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and supply disturbances [9]. Iron Ore - The spot price has weakened significantly. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and arrivals increased significantly. The demand for molten iron decreased, and the port inventory accumulated rapidly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The supply is slightly tight, the overall daily consumption decreases, and the inventory is de - stocked. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate following the finished products [11]. Coke - The cost support is strengthening, and the third - round price increase is expected to be implemented. However, both coking and steel mill profits are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Coking Coal - The supply is difficult to improve, and the downstream and middle - stream procurement is continuous. The coal mine inventory has reached a low level in recent years, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [14]. Glass - The short - term supply may decline, but the demand is weak, and the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The short - term price may return to weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is expected to decline oscillating [15]. Soda Ash - The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support is strengthened, and the price bottom support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [16][17]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price. However, the supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the upward driving force for the price is insufficient [18]. Ferrosilicon - The high steel output and increased cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, suppressing the upward price space [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China-US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expectation of a recovery in manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. Although demand remains weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro environment [2] - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The macro situation is a more important factor affecting prices than the weak fundamentals [11] - For industrial silicon, its price is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and is subject to the influence of coking coal futures prices. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [14] - For polysilicon, its supply - demand pattern may improve marginally due to production cuts, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 123,040 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.919017 million lots, an increase of 39,567 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.422835 million lots, a decrease of 47,384 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregate price was 3310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - Rebar shows both increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory de - stocking, performing neutrally overall. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in demand, but the production is still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remains at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.19% (-17.50). The open interest changed by -5350 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 918,400 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.34 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.61% [4] Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, with FMG showing a significant decrease. Shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly, and the near - end arrivals rebounded rapidly to the highest level of the year after rhythm fluctuations [5] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those being restarted. The profitability of steel mills hit a new low for the year, and some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline. Environmental restrictions in Hebei also affected pig iron production [5] - In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to increase, while steel mill inventories decreased. The terminal data was neutral. Fundamentally, pig iron output continued to decline, iron ore demand weakened, and inventory pressure remained [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.38% during the day, closing at 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.47% during the day, closing at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 26 yuan/ton to the futures [9] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal and lack a major contradiction. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [11] - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's market, with relatively low operability [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9140 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+40). The weighted contract open interest changed by -8769 lots to 399,774 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -240 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [13] - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,065 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-345). The weighted contract open interest changed by -13 lots to 258,086 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of -3815 yuan/ton for the main contract [16] Strategy Views - The supply pressure of industrial silicon persists. Although production cuts continue in the southwest during the dry season, production in the northwest continues to rise, and weekly production has not reached its peak. On the demand side, some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of silicone DMC has decreased and is expected to remain stable in the short term. The cost of electricity in the southwest during the dry season and coking coal prices provide support for the industrial silicon futures price [14] - Some polysilicon production capacity will start maintenance, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons, with production expected to decline in the last two months. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly. The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price is affected by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [17] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1083 yuan/ton, down 0.73% (-8). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million boxes, a decrease of 823,000 boxes (-1.24%). Among the top 20 long - position holders, 37,089 long positions were reduced today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 36,309 short positions were reduced today [19] - On Monday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton, down 0.81% (-10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1162 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons (-1.24%), including 886,400 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 48,100 tons, and 815,600 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 48,000 tons. Among the top 20 long - position holders, 64,210 long positions were increased today, and among the top 20 short - position holders, 84,522 short positions were increased today [21] Strategy Views - For glass, the market has enhanced expectations for supply - structure improvement due to the cold - repair plan of production lines in Shahe and the "anti - involution" policy, but the current fundamentals are weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory de - stocking [20] - For soda ash, with high industry operating rates, continuous expansion of enterprise losses, and only rigid replenishment demand from downstream, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure from demand, with different products facing various supply - demand situations. Positive and negative factors coexist, and investors need to pay attention to specific product trends and relevant influencing factors [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summaries by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The demand is weak, but the maintenance of Binzhou PDH device may support price stabilization [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. The supply of polyethylene increased due to reduced maintenance and new production, while demand weakened. Polypropylene faced supply pressure from new capacity and reduced maintenance, and demand was limited by low profit [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated around 5,500 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and there are medium - term negatives. The strategy is mainly month - spread reverse arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were weak. The cost support was insufficient, and the high inventory pressure continued [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation. The strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, but inventory increased. The supply pressure is high, and the strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation in mid - to late November. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell sharply. High inventory and weak demand persisted, waiting for supply reduction and demand improvement [6] - Urea prices oscillated narrowly. Downstream demand increased, and inventory decreased, but the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was at a low level due to weak cost support, high supply, and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda prices were slightly stronger, but high inventory and weak demand may keep prices low. Attention should be paid to liquid chlorine prices [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to increased supply and reduced demand. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash [8] - Glass prices rose. Inventory is expected to decrease, but cost increase and insufficient orders may limit the rise [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in performance for Q3 2025, with a 12% year-on-year decrease in revenue and a 69% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][4]. - The company is actively pursuing the establishment of a joint venture to develop a sodium battery industry project, which is expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 141.64 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.22 billion yuan, down 69% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 46.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.48 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year and 48% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Market Conditions - The company's main product sector, soda ash, is facing challenges due to oversupply and insufficient demand, leading to a decline in profitability. The average selling prices for key products in Q3 2025 were 1,100 yuan/ton for soda ash (down 32% year-on-year), 12,200 yuan/ton for viscose staple fiber (down 3% year-on-year), 2,671 yuan/ton for caustic soda (down 1% year-on-year), and 4,473 yuan/ton for PVC (down 13% year-on-year) [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "Three Chains and One Cluster" project, focusing on high-end electronic chemicals and fine chemicals. It is also working on a seawater desalination project and a battery-grade sodium carbonate project, which is currently in trial production [3]. - A joint venture is planned with a total investment of 2.7 billion yuan to develop a sodium battery materials and systems integration project, with the company holding a 37.04% stake. The first phase of the project is expected to generate an annual revenue of 1.08 billion yuan and a profit of 167 million yuan upon reaching full capacity [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report has revised the profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 182 million yuan (down 73%), 368 million yuan (down 57%), and 495 million yuan (down 59%) respectively. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 0.09 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.24 yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.66 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.06 billion yuan, down 41.1% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company plans to acquire a 10.6% stake in Yingen Mining, increasing its ownership to 70.6%. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's growth potential as Yingen Mining operates significant projects in the soda ash sector [12]. - The soda ash market is experiencing a downturn, with prices for key products like heavy soda ash and light soda ash dropping significantly. The average prices for Q1-Q3 2025 were 1,387 yuan/ton and 1,349 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 35.7% and 34.3%, respectively [12]. - The company maintains a strong safety margin and growth potential, with expectations for significant dividends and price elasticity in the future. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.47 billion yuan, 2.23 billion yuan, and 2.57 billion yuan, respectively [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.0% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 320 million yuan, down 46.4% year-on-year and 20.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Market Conditions - The soda ash industry is facing a prolonged downturn, with prices continuing to decline due to unfavorable supply-demand dynamics. The average prices for Q3 2025 were 1,240 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash and 1,200 yuan/ton for light soda ash, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.0% and 8.7%, respectively [12]. Strategic Moves - The planned acquisition of Yingen Mining is a strategic move to enhance the company's stake in a key subsidiary, which is crucial for future growth. Yingen Mining is responsible for significant production capacities in the soda ash sector, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's financials [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from potential rebounds in the soda ash market, with a focus on energy efficiency and equipment upgrades. The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and a commitment to shareholder returns through dividends [12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector and undervalued growth stocks [5] Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector showed a 2.50% increase in the week of October 5, outperforming the Shanghai A-share index by 2.38 percentage points [2][11] - The report highlights the significant price increases in products such as vitamin VE and sulfuric acid, indicating a positive trend in the chemical market [4][18] - Recommended stocks include Duofluorite, which benefits from rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, and Huagong Technology, which is a stable growth leader in surfactants [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector had 26 sub-industries rising and 6 declining, with the top gainers being phosphate and phosphate salts (+11.32%) and inorganic salts (+8.94%) [3][15] - The dynamic PE of the chemical sector is 24.39 times, higher than the average PE of 8.06 since 2015 [2][11] Chemical Prices and Spreads - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases include liquid chlorine (+12.78%) and vitamin VE (+8.7%) [4][18] - The spreads for products like styrene-butadiene rubber increased significantly, with the highest being +26.39% for styrene-butadiene rubber spread [38][41] Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament showing a decrease of 33.30% [5][61] Industry News Recap - Recent industry news indicates a substantial increase in imports and production recovery in the chemical sector, driven by lower costs and improved demand [88]

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the post - National Day price has been weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious over - supply. The mid - term demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for shorting opportunities on rebounds. [1] - For glass, the weekend news of production line shutdown in Shahe may have a positive impact on the market sentiment. Although there is still some peak - season demand expectation in November, the industry still needs capacity clearance in the long - term. It is recommended to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities. [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on November 3, 2025. Glass 2505 decreased by 0.88%, and Glass 2509 increased by 0.08%. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 0.60%, and Soda ash 2509 increased by 0.08%. [1] - **Supply**: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 tons, and its operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%. Floating - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, while photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84%. [1] - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 65790,000 weight - cases, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 1.702 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% to 676,900 tons. [1] - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50%. [1] Group 2: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, rubber prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance on December's interest - rate cut. The prices may decline further if raw - material supply is smooth; otherwise, they are expected to oscillate between 15,000 - 15,500. [2] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Most natural rubber spot prices decreased on October 31, 2025. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16.67%. [2] - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. Tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and tire exports in September decreased by 10.65%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.20%, and natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 4.73%. [2] Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although the log futures price is at a relatively low level and the import cost provides some support, the market is still expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the weak supply - demand situation. [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most log futures prices changed slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 22.0, and the 11 - 03 spread decreased. [3] - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 33% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 19%. [3] - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 80,000 cubic meters week - on - week, and the daily log delivery volume increased by 120,000 cubic meters. [3] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market will increase supply. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most industrial silicon spot prices remained stable or increased slightly. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8.86%, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 300.00%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, the national operating rate increased by 10.86%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29%, and polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Most industrial silicon inventories decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 0.18% and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreasing by 0.33%. [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the polysilicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a high - level range - bound oscillation. Investment strategies include short - term long positions in futures, selling put options, and buying ETFs or related stocks. [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, polysilicon spot prices decreased slightly, and the futures price increased by 2.66%. The month - to - month spreads changed to varying degrees. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 3.33%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41%. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16%, silicon - wafer inventory increased by 2.49%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.79%. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile trend. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and the positive signals released by the Sino-US summit, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future, but the demand is still weak in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The current macro factors are more important price - influencing factors than the weak fundamentals [11]. - Regarding manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. Silicon iron is also likely to follow the black sector, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.87945 million lots, a decrease of 15,466 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%). The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, a decrease of 298 tons. The main contract position was 1.470219 million lots, a decrease of 3067 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the production was still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.31% (- 2.50). The position changed by - 11,268 lots to 540,300 lots. The weighted position was 921,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.36% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, with Australia remaining flat, Brazil increasing, and non - mainstream countries slightly decreasing. The near - end arrival volume was at a low level this year. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output decreased, the number of overhauled blast furnaces was much larger than that of restarted ones, and the steel mill profitability reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory declined. The iron ore demand continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On October 31, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 1.20% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.90% at 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5530 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% (- 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 16,059 lots to 408,543 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 421 market price was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 200 yuan/ton for the main contract [13]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% (+ 1460). The weighted contract position changed by + 9166 lots to 258,099 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing during the dry season, the production in the northwest region is increasing. The demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. - For polysilicon, with some production capacity starting maintenance, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The policy expectations have a strong impact on prices [17]. 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash 3.5.1 Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1083 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.73% (- 8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million cases, a decrease of 823,000 cases (- 1.24%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.81% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1175 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with the heavy soda ash inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and the light soda ash inventory increasing by 48,000 tons [21]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - For glass, the supply is loose, the enterprise inventory is accumulating, the demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the production line operation in the Shahe area [20]. - For soda ash, affected by the weak glass market, the price is under pressure. The cost increase forms a certain bottom support, but the de - stocking process is slow. It is expected to continue a narrow - range shock in the short term [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and recommendations are provided for selected varieties. Options strategy reports are compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations for each option variety. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies focused on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 464, with a price increase of 4 and a price change percentage of 0.91%, trading volume of 8.02 million lots, volume change of -2.85 million lots, open interest of 2.96 million lots, and open interest change of -0.19 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for various energy and chemical options are provided. Volume PCR is used to describe whether the underlying market has a turning point, and open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.90, with a change of -0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of -0.03 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various energy and chemical option underlying contracts are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil (SC2512) is 500, and the support level is 440 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various energy and chemical options are presented, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at-the-money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.935%, the weighted implied volatility is 29.69%, with a change of -0.19% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent oil price decline, shale oil production did not significantly decrease. OPEC exports have increased, but most are absorbed by China, so there is no obvious visible inventory in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory is in a low - level destocking state, and the crude oil inventory has increased, but refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and the diesel crack spread remains high [7]. - Market analysis: Since July, crude oil prices have gradually weakened and then consolidated in a range. In August, prices first rose and then fell, showing short - term weak fluctuations. In September, the market continued to be weak and bearish before gradually rebounding. In October, prices fell sharply and then stopped falling and rebounded [7]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is below 0.80, indicating that crude oil has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of crude oil is 500, and the support level is 450 [7]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [7]. 3.5.2 Energy Options - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply on one hand and geopolitical issues on the other. Last week, the crude oil price fluctuated around the $65 mark, and OPEC maintained its production increase. US propane inventories continue to accumulate, and the inventory is at a historical high, waiting for an inventory inflection point [9]. - Market analysis: Since August, LPG prices have accelerated their decline, then rebounded and rose, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. In September, prices first rose and then fell rapidly. In October, prices were first weak and then strong, gradually rebounding and rising, followed by slight fluctuations, showing an oversold rebound market with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of LPG options is around 0.80, indicating that LPG has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of LPG is 4500, and the support level is 4000 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of methanol is 150.65 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.57 million tons, remaining in a high - level shock state and difficult to effectively destock. The enterprise inventory is 37.61 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.57 million tons, and the year - on - year level is low. The enterprise's pending orders are 21.56 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons [9]. - Market analysis: In July, methanol prices rose and then fell, continuously declining and weakening, followed by significant fluctuations. Since August, prices have gradually weakened and trended downward. In September, prices consolidated at a low level and then rebounded. Since October, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The open interest PCR of methanol options is below 0.80, indicating that methanol has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of methanol is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option. When the market rebounds to the high strike price, close the position in combination with spot sales [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is 52.3 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 5.6 million tons; the downstream factory inventory days are 13.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 days. In the short term, the arrival volume was high last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. The port inventory is expected to accumulate. The domestic production load is at a high level, and the overseas arrival volume is increasing, so ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation period [10]. - Market analysis: In July, ethylene glycol prices were in a low - level weak consolidation and gradually rose, then fell rapidly. In August, prices continued to show slight weak consolidation. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that the bearish force of ethylene glycol has been relatively strong recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of ethylene glycol is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy to obtain time value returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin Options - Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: The inventory of PE production enterprises is 51.46 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 2.81%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 2.02%; the inventory of PE traders is 5.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 0.70%. The inventory of PP production enterprises is 63.85 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 5.92%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 12.69%; the inventory of PP traders is 22.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 7.80%; the port inventory of PP is 6.68 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 1.62%. The overall inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [10]. - Market analysis: Since July, the decline of polypropylene prices has narrowed, gradually stabilized, and slightly fluctuated upwards, then fell rapidly. In August, prices maintained slight weak fluctuations. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices fell rapidly and then fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak market trend with bearish pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that polypropylene has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of polypropylene is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The social inventory of natural rubber in China is 103.89 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 43.22 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 million tons, a decline of 1.2%. The bonded area inventory is 6.87 million tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory is 36.35 million tons, a decline of 1.18% [11]. - Market analysis: Since July, rubber prices have continued to rise in the short term and then reached a peak and fell back. In August, prices gradually recovered and rose, then fluctuated in a range. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices continued to be weak and fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak consolidation market trend with support below and resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of rubber options has rapidly increased and then declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of rubber options is below 0.60. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of rubber has significantly moved down to 17000, and the support level is 14000 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - Fundamental analysis: The operating load of PTA is 78%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In terms of equipment, Yisheng Dalian and Weilian Chemical slightly reduced their loads, Zhongtai is restarting, and the new plant of Shanshan Energy has been put into production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in November will increase significantly, and the overall load is under great pressure under low processing fees [11]. - Market analysis: In August, PTA prices fell back, then slightly consolidated, and then rebounded rapidly, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices first fell and then rose, followed by slight fluctuations, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level compared to the average. The open interest PCR of PTA options is around 0.70, indicating that PTA has been in a fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of PTA is 4600, and the support level is 4300 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.8 Energy and Chemical Options - Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. By region, the production loads in the northwest, north, east, northeast, and south have all increased [12]. - Market analysis: In July, caustic soda prices first rose and then fell. In August, prices fell rapidly and then gradually rebounded, showing short - term bullish upward movement and then high - level fluctuations. Since September, prices have continuously closed with negative candles and gradually weakened. In October, prices fell rapidly, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above recently [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of caustic soda options is below 0.8, indicating that caustic soda has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of caustic soda is 2600, and the support level is 2240 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.9 Energy and Chemical Options - Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: As of October 31, 2025, the in - plant inventory of soda ash is 170.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons; the inventory available days are 14.11 days, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The in - plant inventory of heavy soda ash is 88.64 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.81 yuan/ton; the in - plant inventory of light soda ash is 81.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.80 yuan/ton [12]. - Market analysis: Since August, soda ash prices have continued to show weak consolidation. In September, prices fluctuated slightly at a low level and were weak. In October, the market continued to be weak, recently showing a low - level weak fluctuating market trend with support below [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR of soda ash options is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of soda ash is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy to obtain volatility returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.10 Energy and Chemical Options - Urea - Fundamental analysis: The enterprise inventory of urea is 155.43 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.59 million tons. Some reserve demands have followed up, and the enterprise inventory has decreased from a high level. The port inventory is 11 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons, and ports in many places have loaded and cleared the inventory [13]. - Market analysis: In July, urea prices fluctuated widely in a large range under the bearish pressure line and then rose rapidly. In August, prices continued to fluctuate widely

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. Although there is a positive factor that the daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded, overall, the market is bearish [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, with high output from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuanying Phase II before the end of the year. The supply of downstream float glass is expected to be disrupted, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Impact Factors Summary - **L利多 Factors**: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **利空 Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.81% to 1225 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1170 yuan/ton, and the main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 5. Soda Ash Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 86.89%. The weekly output is 75.76 tons, including 41.98 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high. Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year [18][20][5]. 6. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [24][27][5]. 7. Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the supply - demand balance data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].