Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply has decreased and demand has recovered, but there is still inventory accumulation. In the medium - short term, production is under downward pressure, with insufficient downstream procurement potential and weak demand. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation. The futures price lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price will re - enter a downward channel with a likely weak and volatile trend [8]. - For glass, the supply has significantly declined and may continue to fall. The demand is in a traditional off - season with weak cyclical demand, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. With the deep adjustment of the real estate industry, the demand for glass is not effectively boosted. In the short term, as it enters the traditional off - season, the overall enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price may show a strong and volatile trend, with short - term rebound opportunities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market on May 27**: The main futures contract SA509 fluctuated downward, hitting a new contract low. The closing price was 1231 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 2.30%, with an increase of 56,719 lots in positions. The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in the central China region was 1380 - 1460 yuan/ton, with a change of 0/-20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the light - quality soda ash price remained unchanged. As of May 22, the weekly production of soda ash in China dropped to 663,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 78.63%. The enterprise shipment volume was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.81%, and the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy - quality soda ash remained at 860,000 tons with a slight reduction [7][8]. - **Glass Market on May 27**: The main futures contract FG509 had an opening price of 1022 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1031 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.17%, with a decrease of 28,030 lots in positions. The FG601 contract had a closing price of 1084 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.55%, with an increase of 6745 lots in positions. In the future, the glass supply has dropped significantly to the level of February this year and may continue to fall. The demand is in a traditional off - season, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve in the short term [7][9]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue the 2025 Special Treasury Bonds (Phase II) for Capital Injection into Central Financial Institutions on June 4. The re - issued bonds are 7 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds with a competitive tender face value of 105 billion yuan and no additional bids from Class A members. The coupon rate is the same as the previously issued bonds of the same period, at 1.57%. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the market price of baking soda in Henan is stable with average trading. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda is estimated at 1180 - 1260 yuan/ton. - The domestic float glass market is generally stable with minor fluctuations. Some factories slightly lowered their prices, and the trading atmosphere is average. In North China, the price is stable with weak demand support; in East China, some factories lowered the price by 1 yuan per weight box; in Central China, the price is stable with strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment; in South China, factories adjusted their ex - factory policies for shipment at the end of the month, with some offering discounts and others planning price increases; in Southwest China, the price is stable with average trading [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the significant decline in soda ash futures prices, the oversupply situation in the market remains unresolved, making it difficult for prices to find a bottom [1] - Soda ash futures prices have dropped from a peak of 1640 yuan/ton to a low of 1251 yuan/ton, representing a decline of 23.7% [1] - The production cost of soda ash has decreased significantly due to falling raw material prices, particularly for salt and coal, which are key components of production costs [2][3] Group 2 - The price of raw salt, which accounts for about 25% of soda ash production costs, has fallen from 340 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.2% [2] - Coal prices have also declined, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping from 670 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton, a decline of 38.8% [3] - As of May 23, the production cost for soda ash using the ammonia-soda method in North China is 1285 yuan/ton, down 25.3% from 1720 yuan/ton [4] Group 3 - New production capacities are being successfully launched, contributing to an increase in soda ash supply, which exacerbates the oversupply situation [7] - Recent data shows that soda ash exports have increased significantly, with April 2025 exports reaching 17.06 million tons, a 112% increase compared to the same period last year [9] - However, the demand for glass, a major end-use for soda ash, remains weak, particularly due to declining prices in the real estate sector [9] Group 4 - The current production profits for soda ash are still positive despite the price drop, which may lead to further capacity additions rather than reductions [10] - The industry may not find a bottom until production costs force less efficient producers out of the market, particularly those using the ammonia-soda method, which has the highest production costs [10] - The price of soda ash may need to fall below 1200 yuan/ton to trigger a reduction in production capacity, with a potential target range of 1100-1150 yuan/ton to achieve supply-demand balance [10]

1. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rebounded from a low level and showed a strong performance throughout the day, while the spot market was generally sluggish with some price cuts and slower shipments. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and there was no large - scale speculative restocking. Due to poor real - estate completion data, the market is pessimistic about glass consumption. With low production, weak consumption, high inventory, and short - term restocking unable to change the weak situation, attention should be paid to glass production line changes and real - estate data [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak and volatile trend with lower trading sentiment. The domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices. Enterprise production increased, especially for heavy soda ash, and inventory slightly decreased, but downstream demand was mainly rigid. With new production projects coming on stream, high supply pressure has reappeared, and attention should be paid to intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - For silicomanganese, tariff fluctuations and poor off - season consumption expectations led to a collective decline in the black sector, with a 0.87% drop in silicomanganese futures. The spot market was weak, with prices in the north and south at 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, production is at a low level, although it has slightly rebounded week - on - week. With high pig iron production currently providing demand support but a strong expectation of a peak in pig iron production, high inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants are suppressing prices. Low - level and slightly rising manganese ore port inventory, along with falling manganese ore prices dragging down shipments, support alloy costs, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side [3]. - Ferrosilicon futures followed the black sector and slightly declined. The spot market was weak with cautious operations. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. With enterprises in losses, production has dropped to a near - historical low. High pig iron production maintains demand, but inventory reduction is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and production capacity is relatively abundant. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs, and attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies affecting the black sector [4]. 2. Strategy - Glass is expected to be in a volatile state, while soda ash is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery or inter - commodity trading [2]. - Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be in a volatile state [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight fluctuations in certain regions, as supply increases slightly while demand remains cautious [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of May 26, the price range for light soda ash in East China is 1320-1590 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1400-1500 CNY/ton. In North China, light soda ash is priced at 1400-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1430-1520 CNY/ton [2][5]. Index Analysis - On May 26, the light soda ash price index was 1322.86, down 2.86 from the previous working day, a decrease of -0.22%. The heavy soda ash price index was 1365.71, also down 2.86, a decrease of -0.21% [3]. Futures Dynamics - On May 26, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1251 CNY/ton and closed at 1254 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.34%. The highest price during the day was 1271 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1251 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,502,342 contracts, a decrease of 26,138 contracts [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with cautious trading. Supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of some production facilities, but downstream purchasing remains primarily based on immediate needs. The market sentiment is currently one of observation, with expectations of continued narrow fluctuations in the short term [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply has declined from a high level, and the terminal demand improvement is limited. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming, supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the soda ash plant inventory has decreased but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1254 yuan/ton, and the basis is 46 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 167.68 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1254 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 46 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has increased by 0.08% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe has remained unchanged, and the basis has decreased by 2.13% [5]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the joint - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 188 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 67.38 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 36 tons, and the production volume has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production - launching of 60 tons [22]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 54.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is continuously declining, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.68 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 84.40 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash are presented in the table, showing different trends in different years [34].

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2011 ] 1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 735 | 770 | -35 | -4.55% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 785 | 820 | -35 | -4.27% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8050 | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | ‍රි35 | 970 | -35 | -3.61% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2506-2507 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to weaken in a volatile manner. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 decreased by 2.79% compared to the previous week, reaching 1253 yuan/ton. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the near term, while demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average with low raw material reserve intention. With supply declining from a high level and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1289 yuan/ton to 1253 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.79%. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1320 yuan/ton to 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. The main basis increased by 51.61% from 31 yuan/ton to 47 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market Conditions - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the dual - alkali process in East China was 188 yuan/ton, while the profit of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate was 78.63% and is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash accounting for 36 tons, declining from a historical high. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 54.23% [21][23][26]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons. The planned newly - added capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [27]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 105.30% [30]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [33][36]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, including 84.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [39]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [40]. 6. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level for the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1253 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 47 yuan, with a 38.24% increase compared to the previous value. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.57%, and the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.52% [5]. Factors Affecting Soda Ash Positive Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations has been made [4]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - soda downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [11]. Soda Ash Production - The weekly production profit of heavy soda ash using the joint - alkali method in East China was 188 yuan/ton, and the profit using the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, which is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash at 36 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been continuous production - launch plans for soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 60 tons [22]. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production heavy - soda ratio of soda ash was 54.23% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.34%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Soda Ash Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, of which heavy soda ash was 84.40 tons, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the operating rate was 78.20%, the net import was - 114 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [34].

| *业期现日报 | F미 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纪元菲 | | | | | Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 市科 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8650 | 8700 | -50 | -0.57% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 770 | 832 | -65 | -7.78% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | a200 | aeoo | -100 | -1.04% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | | 820 | વેડી | -115 | -12.30% | | | 新疆99硅 | | 8050 | 8100 | -20 | -0.62% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 970 | 1035 | -65 | -6.28% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 合约 | | 5月22日 | 5月 ...