Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views Pig Industry - Spot prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall boost from the Laba Festival is limited. Supply pressure is increasing, and the market is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation pattern [2] Meal Industry - US soybeans are showing a strong - side oscillation. The domestic spot market remains loose, but there is limited downward space for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5] Oil Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise; soybean oil may be boosted by the US biofuel policy; rapeseed oil has been pushed up by capital. The overall market shows different trends [6] Red Date Industry - After the Laba Festival, the spot market's trading enthusiasm will decline. The futures are in a low - valuation range, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival trading and inventory [8] Apple Industry - The Spring Festival stocking atmosphere has slightly improved, but the inventory reduction is slow. Attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory [16] Corn Industry - Short - term corn remains in a high - level oscillation, supported by pre - festival stocking and restricted by policy releases. The 2,300 pressure level needs to be watched [19] Egg Industry - The egg market supply is stable, and the Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end. Attention should be paid to the terminal's digestion ability, and the egg price may correct [22] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillation. Domestic cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area expectations, and attention should be paid to the support at 14,500 [23] Sugar Industry - International raw sugar is expected to oscillate in the low range of 14 - 15 cents. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, supported by cost and the overall commodity atmosphere [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis remains unchanged; the prices of "Pig 2605", "Pig 2603" and the "Pig 3 - 5 spread" have decreased; the main contract position has increased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in most regions have decreased, with only some regions showing an increase [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points has increased slightly; the weekly prices of white strips, piglets, sows and the weekly average slaughter weight have changed little; the weekly self - breeding profit has increased by 486.60% [2] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.30%, the futures price of "M2605" has increased by 0.65%, and the basis has increased by 6.69% [5] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.19%, the futures price of "RM2605" has increased by 1.52%, and the basis has decreased by 1.40% [5] - **Soybeans**: The spot prices of soybeans in Harbin and Jiangsu have increased; the futures prices of "Bean 1 main contract" and "Bean 2 main contract" have decreased [5] Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.05%, the futures price of "Y2605" has increased by 1.63%, and the basis has decreased by 8.82% [6] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong has increased by 1.90%, the futures price of "P2605" has increased by 2.04%, and the basis has decreased by 30.00% [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu has increased by 3.62%, the futures price of "OI605" has increased by 3.94%, and the basis has increased by 0.63% [6] Red Date Industry - **Futures Prices**: The prices of "Red Date 2605", "Red Date 2607" and "Red Date 2609" have decreased [8] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates have decreased slightly, while those of first - grade and second - grade red dates remain unchanged [8] Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: The price of the "Apple 2605" main contract has decreased by 0.72%, and that of the "Apple 2610" contract has decreased by 0.17% [12] - **Spot Indicators**: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets have increased; the national cold - storage inventory has decreased by 3.11% [12] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of "Corn 2603" has decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port has increased by 0.43%, and the basis has increased by 34.00% [19] - **Corn Starch**: The price of "Corn Starch 2603" has decreased by 0.66%, the average price of corn starch has increased by 0.18%, and the basis has increased by 13.58% [19] Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the "Egg 03" and "Egg 04" contracts have increased [22] - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price and the egg - chick price have increased, and the egg - to - feed ratio and the breeding profit have also improved [22] Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Cotton 2605" and "Cotton 2609" have decreased, and the ICE US cotton main contract has decreased slightly [23] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and the CC Index of 3128B have increased, while the FC Index of M: 1% has decreased [23] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory has increased by 1.5%, and the import volume has increased by 49.5% [23] Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Sugar 2605" and "Sugar 2609" have decreased, and the ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 1.54% [26] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have decreased [26] - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has increased [26]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity sector is facing different market conditions. The sugar market has sufficient global supply, and the domestic sugar supply is also abundant. The pulp market has relatively stable prices, but the overall supply is not tight, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak. The double - offset paper market has cost - support weakening and faces demand pressure. In the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple market has strong mid - line supply support but weak marginal drivers, and the jujube market is entering the consumption peak season with inventory starting to decline [3][5][7]. - Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety. For example, for sugar, consider short - selling on rebounds; for pulp, switch from one - sided short - allocation to range trading; for double - offset paper, reduce long positions on high prices and try short - allocation; for apples, adopt a long - thinking strategy; for jujubes, aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective put options [4][5][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - For fresh fruit and vegetable futures, recommend holding long positions in Apple 2605 cautiously with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, recommend reducing short positions with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9300 - 9700 [16]. - For soft commodity futures, recommend temporarily observing Sugar 2605 with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5270 - 5300. For Pulp 2605, recommend range trading with a support range of 5200 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5600. For Double - offset Paper 2605, recommend trying short - selling on high prices with a support range of 4000 - 4050 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9535, down 6 points or 0.06% for the week; Jujube 2605 closed at 8800, down 75 points or 0.85% for the week; Sugar 2605 closed at 5180, down 78 points or 1.48% for the week; Pulp 2605 closed at 5398, up 36 points or 0.67% for the week; Double - offset Paper 2602 closed at 4226, up 178 points or 4.40% for the week [17]. 3.2.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 4.70 yuan per jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan per kilogram, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of sugar is 5280 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous period and down 630 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5400 yuan, with no change from the previous period and down 1150 yuan year - on - year [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The report provides basis data charts for apple, jujube, sugar, and pulp, including Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main - continuous basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, and Pulp main - continuous basis, but no specific data analysis is given [28][31][33][34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation The report provides inter - monthly spread charts for apple, jujube, and sugar, such as Apple 5 - 10 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, and Sugar 9 - 1 spread, but no specific data analysis is given [37][39][41]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 3298, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 706 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 13745, a decrease of 11 from the previous period and a decrease of 10383 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 139554, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 197742 year - on - year [42]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendations - For Apple 2605, recommend selling out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized and the price increase has slowed down. - For Jujube 2605, recommend selling deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high. - For Sugar 2605, recommend considering selling both call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market has oversupply [42]. 3.6.2 Apple Option Data The report provides charts of apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of open interest and trading volume, historical volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [44]. 3.6.3 Sugar Option Data The report provides charts of sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of trading volume and open interest, historical volatility, implied volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [45][46]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: The report provides charts of minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, which are major apple - producing areas, but no specific data analysis is given [49][50]. - **Export Situation**: The report provides a chart of the monthly apple export volume, but no specific data analysis is given [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report provides charts of national apple inventory, weekly apple inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific data analysis is given [53][55]. 3.7.2 Jujube The report provides charts of weekly jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei, and daily arrival volume of jujubes at Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific data analysis is given [57]. 3.7.3 Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory (newly added), monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures difference, but no specific data analysis is given [59][60][62]. 3.7.4 Pulp The report provides charts of domestic 4 - port pulp inventory, global pulp producer inventory days, weekly production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific data analysis is given [64][65][74]. 3.7.5 Double - offset Paper The report provides charts of double - offset paper capacity utilization rate, weekly production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific data analysis is given [76][79].

Group 1: Macro - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil reshaping the order, domestic structural differentiation, and precise policy - driven stable growth. The old US - led global system is accelerating towards a fragmented end, with the failure of multilateral order and intensified great - power competition becoming the norm [1]. - The US and Europe's game over Greenland has escalated, with the US threatening tariffs on 8 European countries and the EU responding with counter - lists and freezing trade agreements. Swedish and Danish pension funds have cleared US bonds, impacting the traditional safe - haven status of US bonds [1]. - The US core PCE物价指数 in November 2025 met market expectations, indicating no significant rebound in inflation. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in the January meeting, and may keep rates stable until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]. - Japan's central bank policy is highly concerned. It is expected to maintain the current interest rate and hawkish tone, and Governor Ueda may explain this as an assessment of last year's interest - rate hikes [1]. - China's economy in 2025 ended with a pattern of "strong supply, stable external demand, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the GDP growth target is expected to be 4.5% - 5%, and expanding domestic demand is the core of stable growth [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - Overseas, the strong US economic data boosts market risk appetite and depresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the US dollar index lacks upward momentum due to factors like Nordic pension funds' withdrawal [2]. - Domestically, the central bank's unexpected 900 billion yuan MLF operation and the indication of room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the year push up the US dollar - RMB exchange rate in the short term, but the expected high corporate settlement willingness may lead to a subsequent decline [2]. - In the future, the RMB has a solid foundation for trend - based appreciation. Its appreciation space depends on the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [2]. - Short - term strategy: Export enterprises can lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The previous trading day saw a differentiated performance in the stock index. The large - cap index was weak in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, while the small - and medium - cap index fluctuated throughout the day. Except for the Shanghai 50 index, other indices closed up [4]. - Short - term, the index is in an adjustment phase with significant style differentiation, but the medium - and long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Small - and medium - cap indices are expected to outperform [4]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, the bond market was lackluster and oscillated. The trading - oriented funds retreated, and the market is cautious about the short - term bond market space [5]. - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, and attention should be paid to whether the capital interest rate will decline and stabilize at a low level [5]. - Medium - term, hold long positions; short - term, stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 5: Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping index (Europe line) futures market showed a differentiated trend, with near - month contracts under pressure and far - month contracts relatively resilient [5][6][7]. - Bullish factors for far - month contracts include the uncertainty of the Red Sea route's full resumption and potential rush - shipping demand in March [6]. - Bearish factors include the decline in spot freight rates and the reduced risk of short - term trade frictions [6]. - Strategy: Trend traders can conduct range operations, short near - month contracts at the upper end of the range and go long at the lower end, and be cautious about chasing far - month contracts [7]. Group 6: Commodities - New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market showed general performance, with rising prices of lithium ore and lithium salts [10]. - The addition of new registered brands on the GZEX is expected to strengthen the basis of lithium carbonate spot and narrow the spread between contracts [10]. - Before early February, consider going long on dips; before the Spring Festival, reduce positions to avoid risks [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends. The industrial silicon spot market was general, while the photovoltaic industry chain spot market weakened [11][12][14]. - In April, the rush - export market in the photovoltaic and organic silicon fields is expected to drive up the demand for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the industry is mainly focused on destocking [14]. - Strategy: Go long on industrial silicon on dips and short polysilicon on rallies. Reduce positions before the Spring Festival [14]. Group 7: Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price fluctuated narrowly at a key level. The inventory of copper in major exchanges showed different changes, and the spot market had general trading [16][17]. - The capital inflow into the chemical and agricultural product sectors was obvious, and the non - ferrous sector was weak. The copper price faced resistance at 100,000 yuan [18]. - Strategy: Do not open new positions above 100,000 yuan; hold existing long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [19]. Aluminum - The aluminum price showed a certain degree of volatility. The supply of aluminum increased, and the demand weakened before the Spring Festival, with inventory accumulation [20][21]. - Short - term, the aluminum price will oscillate; medium - and long - term, it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to dips for entry [21]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated narrowly during the day and was strong at night. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak, with inventory accumulation [22]. - Short - term, it will oscillate weakly. Aggressive investors can try short positions lightly, and holders can sell call options [23]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated at night. The supply of nickel ore was affected by the rainy season, and the demand for stainless steel was supported by inventory reduction [24]. - Be cautious about the high - level callback of stainless steel [24]. Tin - The tin price oscillated widely during the day and was strong at night. The supply was affected by the slow resumption in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the demand was in the off - season [25]. - It will maintain high - level wide - range oscillation. Be cautious about entering the market [25]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply was stimulated by high prices, and the demand lacked new drivers, with inventory changes [25]. - It will oscillate, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [25]. Group 8: Commodities - Oils and Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The external soybean market is expected to continue to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market may stop falling at a low valuation. The potential improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations may change the pricing of rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions in rapeseed meal [28]. Oils and Fats - The domestic oils and fats market showed a short - term weakening trend at night, but the overall upward trend remained. Pay attention to small - scale corrections [28]. - Palm oil is the strongest in the sector, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil may narrow [28][30]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply tension is easing, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the bunkering market. The long - term downward trend remains, but there is short - term support [31][32]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The crack spread remains low [33]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by geopolitical factors. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack spread long positions [34]. Group 10: Commodities - Precious Metals Platinum and Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium rose at night. The market is affected by international political uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the Fed's independence [36][37]. - In the medium - and long - term, the bull market foundation for platinum and palladium remains. Be vigilant about the opening gap [38]. Gold and Silver - The prices of gold and silver reached new highs. The market is affected by the weakening of the US dollar system and geopolitical risk aversion [38]. - The precious metals market is in a bullish pattern. Gold has support at 4650, and silver has support at 86.5. Consider long positions on dips [39]. Group 11: Commodities - Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated strongly at night. The pulp price is affected by spot market conditions, port inventory, and European inventory [40]. - Strategy: Observe or go long on dips, and close short positions [40][41]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose. The supply was moderately low, and the demand was weakening, especially in the PDH sector. The inventory was changing [41][42]. - Be cautious about the upward risk [42]. PTA - PX - The PX and PTA futures prices rose strongly. The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device shutdowns. The demand for polyester is weakening [43][44][45]. - The PTA processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited. Wait for dips to go long [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol futures price oscillated strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening due to the decline in terminal orders. The inventory is at a certain level [46][47]. - The market is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [47]. PP - The polypropylene futures price rose. The short - term supply is reduced due to device maintenance, and the demand has some support, but it is expected to decline seasonally [48][49]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [49]. PE - The polyethylene futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase after device restart, and the demand will face seasonal decline [50][51]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene decreased and the demand increased, and the inventory showed changes. The supply of styrene was affected by unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction [51][52]. - Pay attention to the export increment of styrene, crude oil fluctuations, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials [52]. Urea - The urea futures price rose. The supply is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is supported by export policies. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation [52][53]. - Hold long positions [53]. Glass - Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has limited elasticity. The inventory is at a high level [54]. - The glass futures price rose. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory needs to be digested [55]. Propylene - The propylene futures price rose. The supply decreased and the demand increased this week, and the price was supported by cost and supply - demand factors [55][56][57]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and device - related changes [57]. Group 12: Commodities - Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices oscillated at a low level. The production recovery is slowing, the consumption of rebar is fluctuating, and the inventory is in a certain state. The cost end has both support and pressure [57][58][59]. - The short - term price will oscillate, with the rebar 2605 contract in the 3050 - 3200 yuan range and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the 3200 - 3350 yuan range [57]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price recovered. The iron - making production is affected by safety inspections, the inventory is increasing, and the supply and demand are in a certain state [57][58][59]. - The price has fallen to release the premium, and the downward space is not extremely pessimistic [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures prices rose. The coking coal production is increasing, the import is changing, and the coking enterprises' profits are shrinking. The steel production may be affected by an accident [59][60][61]. - The coking coal price may face downward pressure in the medium - and long - term if certain conditions are met [61]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices rebounded. The supply and demand are weakening, and the inventory is changing. The price is supported by cost [61][62]. - They will oscillate at a low level [62]. Group 13: Commodities - Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price rose. The spot price is changing, with the supply being strong and the demand being weak. The second - fattening may support the price at a low level [64]. - The 03 contract may oscillate upward [64]. Cotton - The cotton futures price showed different trends. The domestic cotton supply is increasing moderately, and the demand is supported by spinning capacity expansion. The price is affected by the internal - external spread [64][65][66]. - The cotton price is likely to rise, but be cautious about chasing high. Wait for dips to go long [66]. Sugar - The sugar futures price rose. The international sugar price is affected by the Brazilian sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar supply and demand are in a certain state. The spot price is falling [66][67][68]. - The domestic sugar price may fall if the international sugar price drops [68]. Eggs - The egg futures price rose. The supply is sufficient, and the demand for pre - festival stocking is weakening [68][69]. - The near - month contract may continue to rise before the stocking period ends [69]. Apples - The apple futures price rose. The spot price is stable, the pre - festival stocking is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [70][71]. - The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory decreases more than expected [71]. Red Dates - The red date market is focused on demand. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The price is likely to oscillate at a low level [72]. - Pay attention to the pre - festival procurement [72]. Logs - The log futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The spot price is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level. The market sentiment is affecting the price [72][73][74]. - Conduct range operations and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread opportunity [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show various trends. Some sectors are expected to be volatile, while others may have specific upward or downward trends based on their unique fundamentals [2][4][5] - In the commodities market, factors such as raw material supply, inventory levels, and downstream demand play crucial roles in determining price movements. For example, in the metals market, the supply of raw materials like nickel and copper, and the demand from industries such as stainless - steel production and electronics, affect prices [20][23][40] - In the financial market, stock index futures and bond futures are affected by domestic and international news, economic data, and policy orientations. For instance, A - share market sentiment is influenced by domestic economic development and overseas trade policies [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by approaching delivery, the price rose at the end of the session. The cost is supported by raw material news, but supply is abundant and demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 15,000 [2][46] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the spot price is under pressure. The industry operating rate has slightly increased, with high inventory and weak demand [3][111] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coal in Shanxi has mostly risen, while Mongolian coal has fallen from its high. The market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,000 - 1,200 [4][64] - **Palm Oil**: It leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, with the potential to break through the 9,000 mark. The production in Malaysia has decreased seasonally, and exports have increased [5][87] - **Gold**: Driven by geopolitical conflicts, the safe - haven sentiment boosts the gold price. It is recommended to buy on dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options [6][17] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had a weak rebound with reduced trading volume. The semiconductor sector was hot. It is expected to enter a volatile trend, and investors are advised to control risks and reduce long positions [7][8][9] - **Bond Futures**: The money market is relatively loose, and long - term bond futures have strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and not to chase high prices [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals were affected by Trump's tariff suspension. Gold closed higher, while silver, platinum, and palladium had different trends. In the future, gold is expected to be strongly volatile, silver may be volatile at a high level, and platinum and palladium will follow gold and be volatile with a narrowing range [14][17][18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated and adjusted, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market speculation sentiment has eased, and the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing [19][23] - **Alumina**: The spot market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate widely around the cash cost line, with the reference range of 2,600 - 2,900 [24][26] - **Aluminum**: The market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The macro and policy expectations are strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 [27][29] - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the demand is suppressed. It is expected to be volatile, and investors can hold long positions at low prices in the long - term [32][36] - **Tin**: The price fluctuated widely. The supply has increased, and the demand from the welding industry is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and hold a long - term low - buying attitude [36][40] - **Nickel**: The impact of news has been digested, and the price oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 138,000 - 148,000 [40][43] - **Stainless Steel**: Similar to the daily selection, it is affected by delivery and cost - demand game, and is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [43][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - side disturbance expectation has risen again, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - term [47][50] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. It is expected to be volatile, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [54][56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3,050 - 3,250 and 3,200 - 3,350 respectively [57][59] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure, and investors can short at around 800 [60][61] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to the daily selection, the spot is strong before the Spring Festival, but the market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile [62][64] - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises have started to raise prices, but the market has over - anticipated. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [65][67] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,300 - 5,800 [68][69] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore supports the cost, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [70][72] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is volatile, and the bottom of soybean meal is strongly supported. The domestic supply is loose, but the downside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile [73][75] - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter pressure has increased, and it is difficult for the white - strip pork price to rise. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [76][77] - **Corn**: There are both support and pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy release [78][79] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is oscillating, and the domestic sugar market is in the late stage of stockpiling. The sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile at a low level [80] - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton is stable, and the domestic cotton price is adjusting. It is expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to the support at around 14,400 - 14,500 [82][83] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable, and the market is moving normally. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [85] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil leads the rise, with the potential to break through 9,000. Soybean oil may have a callback, and rapeseed oil is expected to be narrowly volatile [86][88] - **Jujubes**: The consumption drive is weak, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to run at a low level [89][90] - **Apples**: Supported by low inventory, the price has stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation after the Spring Festival [91][92] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The short - term supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term and may be tight in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips [93] - **PTA**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, and the driving force before the Spring Festival is limited. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate within the range of 4,900 - 5,300 [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. The processing fee can be shorted at a high level [97] - **Bottle - grade PET**: Multiple devices are under maintenance, and the factory is reducing inventory. The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short the 5 - 9 spread and sell call options [100][101] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the high inventory restricts the driving force. It is recommended to short the BZ03 contract and narrow the EB - BZ spread [102][103] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the high valuation limits the rebound space. It is recommended to short the EB03 contract and narrow the processing fee [104][106] - **LLDPE**: The upstream has reduced the price to sell, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [107] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the PDH profit expansion position [107][108] - **Methanol**: The basis has strengthened, and the price is narrowly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar to the daily selection, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is under pressure [109][111] - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, but the downside space is limited [112][113] - **Urea**: The inventory has fallen below one million tons, and the demand has recovered. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and the main contract reference range is 1,740 - 1,790 [114][115] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and short positions can be held [116][119] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short positions can be held [116][120] - **Natural Rubber**: Thailand is entering the production - reduction period, and the raw material price has rebounded. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is strong, and the BR is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion opportunity between BR2603 and NR2603 [124][125][126]

Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated January 21, 2026, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube markets [1] Sugar Market Core View - Domestic sugar futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India. If supply pressure increases, raw sugar may face significant downward pressure, which will also suppress the domestic sugar futures market [3] Price and Spread - On January 21, 2026, SR01 closed at 5266 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.45% and a weekly decline of 1.02%. SR03 closed at 5143 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75% and a weekly decline of 2.96%. SR05 closed at 5144 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75% and a weekly decline of 2.93% [4] - The basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 20, 2026, was 60 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was -75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton [12] - The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar imports on January 21, 2026, was 4002 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 77 yuan/ton. The quota - out price was 5068 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 59 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan/ton [16] Cotton Market Core View - Due to the squeezing of downstream profits and the significant strengthening of the internal - external price spread, there is pressure on the upside of cotton prices. However, the load of spinning mills is basically stable, the expansion of spinning capacity supports cotton consumption, and the overall downstream inventory pressure is not large. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [18] Price and Spread - On January 21, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 15155 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.07%. Cotton 05 closed at 14535 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.07%. Cotton 09 closed at 14705 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.03% [19] - The cotton basis was 1355 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The spread between cotton 01 - 05 was 620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan/ton [19] Apple Market Core View - The logic of the current main apple futures contract 05 and the near - month contracts 03 and 04 is centered around weak demand and the ebb of capital sentiment, while the logic of the shortage of delivery products is temporarily put aside. The logic of the 10 - contract corresponds to the new season's listing and is less affected by current demand, with relatively weak downward elasticity. Recently, the trading in the production areas has improved slightly compared with the previous period, and the decline of the futures price has narrowed. Continued attention should be paid to apple stocking. If demand improves significantly, the futures price may be more strongly supported; otherwise, it may continue to decline [25] Price and Spread - On January 21, 2026, AP01 closed at 8188 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.54% and a weekly decrease of 18.12%. AP03 closed at 9463 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly decrease of 5.3%. AP04 closed at 9424 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.35% and a weekly decrease of 4.82% [26] - The spread between AP01 - 05 was - 1227 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 6.26% and a weekly decrease of 87.45%. The main basis was 29 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100% and a weekly decrease of 105.23% [27] Jujube Market Core View - In the short term, jujube prices may maintain a low - level volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - Chinese New Year procurement. In the medium to long term, the overall supply - demand situation of domestic jujubes in the new year is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [31] Price and Spread - The report provides historical data on jujube futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and the sum of jujube warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as price trends in Xinjiang's main jujube - producing areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade gray jujubes in main sales areas [32][34][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Globally, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing adjustments, with the US - EU game as a key variable. The EU's freezing of the US - EU trade agreement approval process has led to a halt in bilateral economic and trade cooperation, triggering panic about a possible $4 trillion US debt sell - off by Europe. The traditional safe - haven status of US debt is challenged, and the financial market has entered a "safe - haven - dominated" stage. The US faces structural dilemmas, and global capital is shifting to diversified allocation. Domestically, in 2025, the economy showed structural differentiation. In 2026, with a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5%, expanding domestic demand is the core focus. Fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support domestic demand, infrastructure investment, consumption stimulation, and industrial upgrading [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation foundation of the RMB against the US dollar is solid, but the appreciation process will be relatively moderate, affected by the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [3]. - For the stock index, although there are many external disturbances, the bottom support of the stock index is strong [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term upward trend of the bond market is mainly driven by the stock market adjustment, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. - For the container shipping European line, the short - term is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to wait for the market risk to be fully released before entering the market [10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, in the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. - For copper, the exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious when building new positions above 100,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum, the short - term is affected by emotions and may fluctuate and correct, but there is upward space in the medium - long term; for alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; for cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum and is recommended to pay attention to the spread [18]. - For nickel - stainless steel, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing if the trade relationship improves [23]. - For oils, they are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - For asphalt, it will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - For gold and silver, gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. - For pulp - offset paper, the pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - For LPG, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - For PTA - PX, the short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - For methanol, the geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - For PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - For PE, it is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - For pure benzene - styrene, the supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [53]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand expectation is weak [55][56]. - For propylene, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, they are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the price range is recommended [58][59]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the price is affected by macro expectations [60]. - For coking coal and coke, the disk is weak, and the long - term price may be under pressure if the macro situation changes [62]. - For live pigs, the cold wave has put pressure on the northern pig prices [63]. - For cotton, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [65]. - For sugar, it is expected to fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India [67]. - For eggs, the price is expected to be stable overall with local adjustments [69]. - For apples, the near - term contracts are affected by weak demand, and the far - term contracts are less affected. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [74]. - For red dates, the short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement [75]. - For logs, although the price has broken through, it does not have the condition to continue to fall sharply. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 795 [76]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The EU has frozen the US - EU trade agreement approval process; the ADP weekly employment report shows an average increase of 8,000 private - sector jobs per week; there are issues related to Greenland; domestic fiscal and financial policies are coordinated to promote domestic demand; the US Treasury Secretary reveals the progress of nominating the next Fed Chairman [1]. - **Core Judgments and Transmission Logic**: Geopolitical changes have led to a "safe - haven - dominated" global financial market. Domestically, expanding domestic demand is the focus in 2026, and fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support the economy [2]. - **Exchange Rate Analysis**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation against the US dollar, but the process will be moderate, affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume increased slightly [4]. - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Finance has announced policies to support the economy, and there is a global bond - selling wave [4]. - **Market Interpretation**: The stock index was affected by geopolitical factors and short - term capital adjustments but has strong bottom support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The treasury bond market rose, and the bond yield decreased [5]. - **Important Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and policies were announced to expand domestic demand [6]. - **Core Views**: The short - term upward trend of the bond market is driven by the stock market, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. Container Shipping European Line - **Market Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market closed down, and the trading volume was light [7]. - **Information Sorting**: The core contradiction is the game between the price cut of leading shipping companies and the repeated resumption of navigation. There are both positive and negative factors [8]. - **Trading Judgments**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose, and the trading volume increased [10]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was average, and the price of lithium ore and lithium salt increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state [10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon decreased, and that of polysilicon increased [11]. - **Industry Performance**: The industrial silicon spot market was average, and the photovoltaic industry spot market improved [12]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The copper price continued to adjust, and the basis decreased [14]. - **Industry Information**: The exchange has adjusted the trading margin and price limit, and the inventory has changed [15]. - **Viewpoint**: The exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed [17]. - **Core Views**: Aluminum may fluctuate and correct in the short term but has upward space in the medium - long term; alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased [18]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market price and inventory of nickel and stainless steel changed [19]. - **Market Analysis**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds in the meal market continued to decline [21]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of imported soybeans may be in short supply in the first quarter, and the supply of rapeseed meal may increase if the trade relationship improves [22]. - **Outlook**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [23]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The prices of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil rebounded [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The export of palm oil increased, and the policies of the US and Indonesia affected the market [24]. - **Viewpoint**: They are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [26]. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different characteristics, and the inventory has changed [26]. - **Core Logic**: The high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - **Asphalt** - **Spot Situation**: The asphalt price was stable, and the supply and demand in different regions were different [28]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed, and the price is affected by geopolitical factors [29]. - **Viewpoint**: It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium** - **Market Review**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose [31]. - **Trading Logic**: Geopolitical and tariff issues have injected short - term safe - haven premiums [31]. - **Viewpoint**: The bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold rose, and silver fluctuated [34]. - **Trading Logic**: The geopolitical situation has increased the safe - haven demand for gold, and silver is affected by industrial demand and other factors [34]. - **Viewpoint**: Gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The futures prices of pulp and offset paper fluctuated [37]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pulp was stable, and the port inventory increased [37][38]. - **Viewpoint**: The pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - **LPG** - **Market Dynamics**: The LPG price decreased, and the spread changed [40]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have changed, and the profit has decreased [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory**: The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased [43]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of MEG and polyester have changed, and the profit has been repaired [43]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: The methanol price changed [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The basis and inventory of methanol have changed [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: The PP price decreased [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PP is different in different regions, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [46]. - **Viewpoint**: It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: The PE price decreased [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PE decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [49]. - **Viewpoint**: It is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis increased [50]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - **Rubber** - **Market Trends**: The rubber price stabilized slightly [52]. - **Related Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and domestic policies were favorable [52]. - **Core Views**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased [55]. The supply is expected to be high, and the price is restricted by inventory [55]. - **Glass**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the supply change [56]. - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: The propylene price decreased [56]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of propylene is different in different regions, and the supply and demand have changed [56]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: They fluctuated and fell, and were relatively resistant to decline compared to furnace materials [58]. - **Core Logic**: The production growth of finished products has slowed

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors present complex market situations. For sugar, the global supply is abundant, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures may be range - bound. For pulp, the supply pressure is easing, but the upside is limited. For double - offset paper, the short - term demand is supported by publication orders, but the long - term demand is under pressure. For cotton, the short - term price may adjust slightly, and the medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise. For apples, the long - term price has support, but the short - term may be adjusted at a high level. For jujubes, the market is moving towards a balance of supply and demand, and the futures price may be volatile [4][5][6][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh - Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Soft - Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 5200 - 5220 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, it is recommended to be bearish in the range, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700. For Double - Offset Paper 2605, it is recommended to operate in the range, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market Situation - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 15, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 6.5557 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 488,000 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong and Shaanxi production areas, the mainstream prices were stable. In the sales areas, the sales volume increased slightly over the weekend, and the mainstream prices remained stable [20][21]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market Situation As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period [22]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Situation - As of the week of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 165,711 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment. - As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in India was 176.374 million tons, and the sugar production was 15.885 million tons, both higher than the same period last year. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 17, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in Thailand was 29.2643 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.09%, and the sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. - In 2025, the actual arrival volume of out - of - quota raw sugar in China was 2.2161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2823 million tons [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, the price of BHK pulp shipped to China and other Asian markets was increased by $20/ton, and large enterprises' purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price [27]. 3.2.5 Double - Offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was still weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [28]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% and a month - on - month increase of 7.72%. The cumulative retail sales from January to December were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. - In December 2025, China's cotton import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. - India's Cotton Corporation started selling new cotton in the 2025/26 season on January 19, 2026 [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9345, down 196 or 2.05%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8815, down 60 or 0.68%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5244, down 14 or 0.27%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5362, unchanged. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14545, down 45 or 0.31% [30]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and down 560 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 1000 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 500 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan month - on - month and up 1104 yuan year - on - year [36]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided in the summary, but relevant basis charts are presented, including Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, etc. [51][52][54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 5 - 10 spread was 1370, unchanged month - on - month and up 1890 year - on - year, with an expected bullish trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. - For jujubes, the 5 - 9 spread was - 240, down 5 month - on - month and up 60 year - on - year, and it is recommended to wait and see. - For sugar, the 5 - 9 spread was - 16, down 7 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, and it is recommended to wait and see. - For cotton, the 5 - 9 spread was - 165, down 10 month - on - month and down 10 year - on - year, with an expected bearish trend, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [58]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation Relevant charts show the top 20 rankings of long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and net short changes for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary [64][66][70]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 3298, up 27 month - on - month and down 706 year - on - year. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 14,126, unchanged month - on - month and down 7939 year - on - year. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 139,584, down 9550 month - on - month and down 204,546 year - on - year. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 9658, down 8 month - on - month and up 3164 year - on - year [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: Relevant charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. - **Sugar Options**: The charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. - **Cotton Options**: The charts show trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. No specific data analysis is provided in the summary [90][94][99].

Macroeconomic Overview - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, while real estate development investment is expected to decline by 17.2% [1][2] - The economic performance shows a clear divergence, with supply and external demand improving while internal demand remains weak, particularly in investment growth [1][2] - The government is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand to stabilize growth, with fiscal and monetary policies already showing signs of support [1][2] Currency Exchange - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 6.9636, appreciating by 53 basis points, while the central parity rate was adjusted to 7.0051, up by 27 basis points [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by resilient exports and increased willingness of enterprises to settle in RMB, despite potential pressures from international trade tensions [4] Investment Strategies - Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange rates around 7.01 to mitigate risks from potential currency depreciation, while importers should consider rolling purchases near the 6.93 mark [5] - The bond market is expected to face limited upward potential due to a lack of driving factors, with short-term strategies suggesting a cautious approach [6] Commodity Market Insights - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a slight increase, with prices at 147,260 RMB/ton, while the overall lithium battery supply chain is experiencing weak performance [11][12] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to rise due to anticipated production cuts, with the main contract trading at 8,845 RMB/ton [12][13] - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices rebounding to 5.9055 USD/pound, driven by external factors and market sentiment [15][17] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is facing a potential supply gap in Q1 2025, with imports expected to be lower than previous years, while domestic soybean meal inventories are decreasing [22][23] - The canola market is showing signs of recovery due to improved trade relations with Canada, which may lead to lower tariffs and increased imports [22][25] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are rising, driven by geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. tariff policies, with gold reaching 4,676.7 USD/ounce and silver at 94.28 USD/ounce [29][30] - The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with expectations of continued demand from central banks and investors amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [27][30]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both apples and red dates is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Opinions - Apple market: The overall trading of apples is slow, with a weak demand and a long - term impact from substitute fruits. Attention should be paid to the actual consumption during the Spring Festival stocking. The price shows a polarization trend, with high - quality fruits having price support and low - quality fruits having a weak price [3] - Red date market: Although there is a reduction in production, the supply situation remains loose due to the combination of old and new stocks. The market focus has shifted to the consumer side. Attention should be paid to the actual sales speed and inventory reduction performance during the traditional lunar month [7] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9345 yuan/ton, a change of - 196 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.05% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis of AP05 was - 1341 in Qixia and - 1141 in Luochuan, with an increase of 266 from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8815 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.68% [5] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis of CJ05 was - 815, a decrease of 140 from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apples - In some sub - producing areas, the sales of apples have slightly improved during the Spring Festival stocking period, but the sales in the distribution areas are average, with serious backlogs in transit warehouses. The stocking in the producing areas may accelerate this week [2] Red dates - The acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang has ended. The prices in different regions are different, and the acquisition adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The prices in the Hebei and Guangdong markets are stable, and the downstream purchases according to demand [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price opened low and closed low yesterday. The overall trading in the producing areas is slow, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect of other fruits is obvious. The Spring Festival is postponed this year, and the stocking period has also been postponed [3] Red dates - The red date futures price fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market focus has shifted to consumption. Although there is a reduction in production, the supply is still loose. The downstream starts to replenish goods, but the acceptance of high - price goods is average [7] Group 6: Figures - The report includes figures such as the market prices, contract closing prices, basis, and spreads of apples and red dates, as well as the production, consumption, inventory, and shipment volume of apples and red dates [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily evaluations and operation suggestions for various futures varieties, including expectations of price trends, market analyses, and corresponding trading strategies [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Alumina (AO2605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Caustic Soda (SH2603): Weak in the near - term [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Eggs (JD2603): Strong in the short - term [3] All - Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index Futures - A - shares continued to rise with heavy volume and then declined, with large trading divergence and high trading volume. The callback range may be limited. For stock index futures, it is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate small - and medium - cap indexes that had smaller previous gains at low prices. Use bull - spread strategies mainly and prevent risks from large fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the central bank's combined measures and the implementation of structural monetary policy interest rate cuts, the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the first quarter may decrease. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate at 1.85% may be a reasonable pricing, and the certainty of a reserve requirement ratio cut is relatively high. It is expected that capital interest rates will be stable and the short - end will be stronger, and the yield curve may tend to steepen. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and participate in the steepening strategy for curve trading [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. - Silver: Policy may bring forward powder demand, intensify structural supply shortages. Keep a low - position buying idea at lows and lock in gains at highs. - Platinum: Buy at lows near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Shipping and Metals - Steel: Rebar fluctuates in the 3000 - 3200 range; hot - rolled coils fluctuate in the 3150 - 3350 range. - Iron Ore: Supply faces the off - season, and ports continue to accumulate inventory, fluctuating in the 770 - 830 range. - Coking Coal: Prices in Shanxi rise more than they fall, and trading warms up. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts after New Year's Day, the price stabilizes. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Silicon Iron: Costs are supportive, and supply - demand improves marginally. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5500. - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore outer - market quotes generally rise, and supply - demand improves. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5800. - Copper: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories in three locations are accumulating. Hold long positions cautiously with attention on the 99000 - 100000 support. - Alumina: Spot inventory accumulation continues, and the market fluctuates widely. The main contract operates in the 2600 - 2950 range, and sell short at highs. - Aluminum: The market reduces positions and adjusts. Be aware of emotional callback risks in the short - term. The main contract has an over - rising sign in the short - term, so do not chase long. Wait for the callback to layout long positions. - Aluminum Alloy: Inventory continues to decline, and the spot market maintains just - in - time procurement. The main contract operates in the 22000 - 24000 range. Conduct arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03. - Zinc: LME suspends zinc warehousing from South Korea, and zinc prices rise sharply. Pay attention to the 24000 support and go long at lows in the long - term. Hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions. - Tin: Market sentiment declines, and tin prices open lower at night. Be cautious in futures operations. - Nickel: The mine - end supply is expected to tighten again, and the market runs strongly. Conduct range operations with the main contract in the 140000 - 152000 range. - Stainless Steel: The market fluctuates strongly, and raw material cost support strengthens again. Fluctuate strongly with the main contract in the 13800 - 14500 range [3]. New Energy - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon futures decline and then rebound, still oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the change in poly - silicon production. The main contract operates in the 8000 - 9000 range. - Poly - silicon: Poly - silicon futures mainly fluctuate, with support at 48000. Fluctuate at a high level and wait and see. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment eases, and the market oscillates and adjusts. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and conduct positive calendar spreads. - PX: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. Focus on the 7000 support in the short - term, adopt low - position positive spreads in the medium - term, and conduct long - term low - buying. - PTA: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PTA. Try to go long when PTA is below 5000, and treat it with a low - buying strategy in the medium - term. Conduct TA5 - 9 low - position positive spreads. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA; try to shrink the processing margin on the market when it is high. - Bottle - grade PET: In January, both supply and demand of bottle - grade PET decrease, and the absolute price and processing margin follow the cost side. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the 350 - 500 yuan/ton range. - Ethanol: Seasonal inventory accumulation, weak near - term supply - demand expectations, and the MEG price in January is still under pressure. Pay attention to the 4000 pressure on EG2605; conduct reverse spreads on EG5 - 9 at highs; hold short positions of out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4100. - Benzene: Supply - demand expectations improve slightly, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory. Short - sell BR03 at highs and pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the EB - BZ spread. - Styrene: Styrene is short - term strong, but the upside is limited due to high valuation and weak expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to short - sell EB03 at highs and the opportunity to shrink the EB processing margin when it is high [3]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The basis remains, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. Some long positions should be closed as non - standard products turn into standard products. - PP: Maintenance increases, and prices fluctuate strongly. Hold PDH profit expansion positions. - Methanol: Geopolitical disturbances cause prices to fluctuate. Wait and see. - Caustic Soda: The weak supply - demand pattern continues, and spot prices are under pressure. Wait and see. - PVC: Export disturbances amplify market fluctuations, and short - term trading focuses are no longer on supply - demand. Market fluctuations increase, and hold short positions and wait. - Urea: Agricultural demand emerges and inventory decreases, pushing up the urea price center. Close long positions taken earlier at the right time and hold short positions and wait. - Soda Ash: Device restart and increased production load lead to a new high in daily output, while demand is still weak. Take a bearish view. - Glass: Market sentiment declines, and the sales - to - production ratio continues to fall. Short - sell in the short - term. - Natural Rubber: Short - term driving forces are limited, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range. Wait and see. - Synthetic Rubber: For BR2603, the cost side strengthens, and demand expectations improve. Pay attention to the 11800 - 12000 support for BR2603; conduct arbitrage by going long on BR2603 and short on NR2603 [3]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks driving forces, and soybean meal fluctuates. Fluctuate within a range. - Live Pigs: Driven by capital sentiment, the market is short - term strong. Fluctuate within a range. - Corn: Supply remains tight, and the market fluctuates at a high level. Run at a high level. - Oils: There are many recent disturbing factors, and short - term fluctuations intensify. Palm oil tests the 8750 support in the short - term. - Sugar: India's sugar - crushing speeds up, and prices are under pressure at highs. Fluctuate weakly within a range and pay attention to the 5300 resistance. - Cotton: The US export sales report provides support, and cotton prices fluctuate and adjust. Fluctuate at a high level. - Eggs: Egg prices are stable or rising, and supply - demand pressure is not large. Fluctuate strongly within a range and pay attention to the previous high of 3100 pressure. - Red Dates: Not provided - Apples: Market sentiment cools down, and futures prices fluctuate at a high level. Market trading is weak, and futures prices decline. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options and short - sell on rebounds [3]