2025 年 08 月 22 日 资产配置报告 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 [Table_Title] 风险偏好提升，两融明显提速 ——7 月资金流向月报 最近一年走势 相关报告 《6 月资金流向月报：银行行业关注度提升*徐凝 碧，林加力》——2025-07-22 《5 月资金流向月报：资金面宽松，科创 ETF 净流 入*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-06-15 《资产配置报告：财政发力支撑总量，M1 增速回 升*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-06-15 《4 月资金流向月报：价值型资金或仍为主要定价 力量*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-05-07 《资产配置报告：社融总量超预期，信贷结构显现 积极变化*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-04-17 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：拆解 7 月权益 ETF、商品 ETF、南向交 易、债市现券交易等资金流向，分析其中原因，推测后市趋势。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： xunb@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 流动性：7 月央行 ...

在 2025 年的资本市场格局中，理性投资者逐渐摒弃单一资产押注策略，转而构建包含权益类、固收类和实物资产的组合配置。以 （08566.HK/6QKI2）为代表的新兴产业龙头股、（08566.HK/S886S）这类高评级公司债以及现货黄金的三维组合，正在成为主流配置方案。 港股市场持续显现结构性机会，如（08566.HK/BO3E1）在 AI 医疗领域的突破使其年内涨幅达 45%，而（08566.HK/S03OZ）受益于新能源基建 政策，股息率稳定在 5.2% 以上。但个股波动风险不容忽视，建议通过（08566.HK/0FHWC）等 ETF 产品实现行业分散。债券市场方面，以 （08566.HK/UVZRW）为代表的绿色债券收益率突破 6.5%，（08566.HK/VBOCK）这类可转债则提供攻守兼备特性。但需警惕 （08566.HK/A9AA7）等地产债的信用风险边际变化。 黄金作为传统避险资产，在美联储降息周期中展现独特配置价值。实物黄金与（08566.HK/HJTJ7）黄金 ETF 的组合，既满足流动性需求又规避 交易损耗。值得注意的是，数字货币波动性加大背景下，（08566.HK/29N6B）这类黄金 ...

Market Review - The market is expected to shift focus upwards, with excess returns coming from early recognition of the "DeepSeek moment" in innovative fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense [1] - In July, the market exhibited a strong upward trend, with broad industry gains led by technological innovation and key mineral resources. The ChiNext Index rose by 8.1%, the CITIC TMT Index increased by 16.2%, and the innovative pharmaceutical ETF gained 16.7% [1] Economic Environment - In the first half of 2025, liquidity remained ample, supported by loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies, helping the economy maintain resilience and stable operation. The cumulative GDP growth was 5.3%, exceeding the expected 5.2% [2][30] - The profit margin of industrial enterprises showed slight improvement, with the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises declining by 1.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [30][53] Policy Environment - The Central Economic Commission emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, targeting "anti-involution" [3] - The macro policy is expected to continue to exert force, with more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies being implemented to fully release policy effects [3] Investment Strategy - Long-term strategies should recognize the unwavering commitment to advancing technological innovation and creating a more favorable institutional environment for innovation, guiding social resources towards achieving the "DeepSeek moment" [4] - Short-term strategies should be cautious of market volatility risks following high market sentiment, as the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-book ratio has risen significantly, indicating potential structural risk release [6] Industry Performance - As of July 31, 2025, 23 of the 28 Shenwan first-level industries had increased, with a 74.2% industry increase ratio. Notably, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and communications saw growth exceeding 20% [16] - The cumulative increase in recommended industries from January to July 2025 was positive for 22 out of 24 sectors, with a success rate of 91.7% [20] Fund Flow - As of July 31, 2025, southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks remained strong, with a cumulative net inflow of 45,646.3 billion HKD [26] - The financing balance reached a new high for the year, indicating heightened financing sentiment, with a financing balance of 19,705.7 billion CNY as of July 30, 2025 [28]

Group 1 - The precious metals market in 2025 is experiencing unprecedented heat, with silver prices reaching a 14-year high of over $39 per ounce, marking a 33% increase year-to-date, while gold has risen by 27% in the same period [1][3] - As of July 23, 2025, the London gold spot price is reported at $3425.45 per ounce, with Shanghai gold futures exceeding 792 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 20% [3] - The World Gold Council reported a net inflow of 552 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, a 170% year-on-year increase, with several domestic gold ETFs ranking among the top ten globally [3] Group 2 - The surge in demand for safe-haven assets is driven by geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-globalization, leading to increased allocations in gold among wealthy individuals, with the proportion rising from 5% in 2024 to 11% in 2025 [4] - Industrial demand for silver is on the rise, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with an expected global solar installation capacity exceeding 600 GW in 2025, consuming over 670 million ounces of silver [4] - Retail participation in gold investments is increasing, with domestic gold ETFs showing over a 20% increase year-to-date, and platforms like Alipay attracting many new investors [4] Group 3 - Despite the market's enthusiasm, institutional views are divided, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3215 per ounce, while Macquarie remains cautious, predicting silver prices to average around $36 per ounce in Q3 2025 [5] - Experts generally agree on a long-term upward trend for precious metals, with expectations of significant price movements in the second half of 2025 due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing trends [5] - The World Bank emphasizes that rising geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases will support precious metal assets in 2025-2026 [5] Group 4 - Regulatory compliance is becoming a focal point for investors, with five ministries in China issuing guidelines to strengthen management of gold trading platforms, ensuring traceability and data integrity [7] - Compliance platforms like Gold盛贵金属 are implementing strict transaction protocols and real-time verification systems to enhance investor confidence [7] Group 5 - For novice investors, it is recommended to use simulation accounts to familiarize themselves with trading indicators and to control risks effectively during live trading [8] - Advanced strategies suggest combining macro hedging with event-driven tactics, such as pre-setting orders based on central bank announcements to capture short-term price movements [8] - Risk management strategies include a "core + satellite" approach, maintaining a long-term holding while dynamically adjusting positions based on market conditions [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global precious metals market in 2025 is influenced by geopolitical events such as the stalled Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and escalating tensions in the Middle East, creating a complex environment for investors [1] - The World Gold Council reports that global central bank gold purchases will exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, with China's gold reserves increasing to 73.61 million ounces, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] - The occupation of mining hubs in the Democratic Republic of Congo is impacting palladium and cobalt supply chains, while trade tensions from Trump's tariff policies present operational challenges for investors [1] Group 2: Investment Challenges - The precious metals market is experiencing daily price fluctuations exceeding $100, with incidents like a single-day gold price swing of over $55 on March 18 due to geopolitical tensions, highlighting the risks of traditional trading platforms [3] - Data indicates that 73% of investors incur losses due to poor platform selection, emphasizing the importance of trading efficiency and fund security in the industry [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - The company has established a three-dimensional risk management system comprising regulatory compliance, technical safeguards, and fund custody, ensuring transparency and security for investors [4] - Each trade generates a unique transaction code, allowing real-time tracking and verification, akin to an "electronic ID" for transactions [4] - The platform employs advanced technology, including multi-layer firewalls and SSL encryption, maintaining a slippage rate of 0.05% under high-pressure conditions [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For entry-level investors, the company offers a micro-position design starting at 0.01 lots, allowing for small-scale testing of trading strategies with a focus on risk management [5] - Advanced investors can utilize a "core + satellite" allocation strategy, with 70% in gold ETFs and 30% in silver futures, capitalizing on projected silver price increases driven by solar demand [7] - The platform's multi-asset trading capabilities enable tracking of correlations between gold, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, automatically initiating hedging strategies when divergences exceed 15% [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of central bank monetary policy statements in revealing market expectations, particularly focusing on the "hawkish-dovish signals" from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan in 2025 [1] Group 1: Quantitative Decoding of Hawkish-Dovish Signals - The Federal Reserve's May 2025 statement highlighted a "no rush to cut rates" stance, removing the phrase "risks are roughly balanced," which led to a 1.5% fluctuation in gold T+D within one hour [3] - The European Central Bank's June 2025 statement omitted the term "restrictive" and lowered inflation forecasts, resulting in a 2.3% expansion in euro gold premiums [4] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in June 2025 but planned to gradually reduce government bond purchases starting in 2026, causing a 1.8% fluctuation in yen gold premiums [5] Group 2: Market Reaction Mechanisms - During the March 2025 U.S. stock market circuit breaker, the VIX index surged to 52.33, yet gold ETF holdings briefly flowed out, indicating a "pseudo-safe haven" sentiment in the market [6] - A divergence between the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 47.1 (contraction) and the Eurozone PMI at 48.5 (near expansion) in April 2025 led to a 10% pricing discrepancy between the dollar index and euro gold premiums, allowing for a strategy of "long COMEX gold + short Shanghai gold T+D" to capture exchange rate recovery with an annualized return of 12%-15% [7] Group 3: Practical Response Strategies - A keyword sensitivity model was developed using JPMorgan's AI model to analyze core terms such as "policy path," "inflation expectations," and "financial conditions," indicating that each additional mention of "upside inflation risk" in the Fed's statement increases the probability of a 3-5 basis point rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by 62% [8] - In extreme market conditions, it is advised to reserve 30% margin redundancy and utilize "gold options strategies" to hedge volatility risks, with the cost of buying straddle options (strike price $3200/ounce) being 40% lower than simple holdings [9] - Monitoring the time lag between central bank policy statements and data releases is crucial; for instance, if the U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations by 150,000 after the Fed's June statement, gold may experience a rebound typically ranging from 1.5%-2.5% [10]

当前黄金市场正处于短期调整与中长期支撑的博弈阶段，投资者需结合多重维度审慎决策。从近期市场表现看，国际金价从 4 月的 3500 美元 / 盎司高位回 落至 5 月的 3234 美元 / 盎司，国内金饰价格同步跌破 1000 元 / 克，这主要受美元走强（美元指数反弹至 99.5）、中美贸易摩擦缓和导致避险需求减弱，以 及技术性抛售和获利了结的影响。然而，中长期来看，黄金的战略配置价值依然稳固，核心逻辑未被证伪。 一、短期压力与市场情绪波动 2. 2025 年一季度全球央行净购金超 300 吨，中国连续 6 个月增持黄金储备至 7377 万盎司（约 2294.51 吨），但黄金占外汇储备比例仅 4.3%，远低于全 球平均水平（约 15%），未来增持空间显著。波兰、印度等国的持续购金行为形成价格锚定效应，野村证券指出，全球经济碎片化背景下，黄金的 "去美元化" 货币属性溢价将持续凸显。 3. 通胀黏性与滞胀风险 4. 尽管美国 4 月 CPI 同比增长 2.3% 低于预期，但消费者对未来一年通胀的预期升至 7.3%，叠加特朗普关税政策的潜在影响，通胀黏性可能超预期520。 摩根士丹利预测 2025 年美国通胀可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, with global investment demand reaching 552 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 170% [1][36] - The easing of U.S. tariff policies has positively impacted copper prices, with a rebound observed due to improved market sentiment and a decrease in global copper inventories [2] - The lithium market is facing cost pressures, leading to a reduction in production rates, while demand remains stable, suggesting a potential stabilization in lithium prices [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In Q1 2025, global gold investment demand surged to 552 tons, with ETF inflows accounting for 226 tons, indicating strong market interest despite a 21% year-on-year decrease in central bank purchases [1][36] Industrial Metals - Copper inventories fell to 582,000 tons, with a reduction of 58,000 tons week-on-week, supporting a price rebound following the easing of tariffs [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of U.S. Federal Reserve policies and domestic production adjustments, with theoretical operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum at 43.835 million tons [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased by 3.1% to 66,000 yuan per ton, while production rates have dropped by 14% to 14,500 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] - The demand for silicon metal remains stable, but high inventory levels are expected to keep prices under pressure [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, with various buy ratings based on projected earnings growth and favorable market conditions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gold market showed robust development in Q1 2025, with various data reflecting its complex structure and inherent vitality. Group 1: Domestic Gold Production - In Q1 2025, domestic gold production reached 87.243 tons, an increase of 1.284 tons or 1.49% compared to Q1 2024 [1] - Gold mine production accounted for 61.772 tons, while by-product gold from non-ferrous metals contributed 25.471 tons, forming a significant part of domestic gold production [1] - Total gold production, including imports, was 140.830 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.18% [1] Group 2: Trading Market Activity - The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw a total trading volume of 16,000 tons (double-sided), a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, with a trading value of 10.70 trillion yuan, up 42.85% [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a trading volume of 55,400 tons (double-sided), a significant increase of 91.17%, with a trading value of 30.52 trillion yuan, up 143.69% [2] - The surge in trading volume and value indicates strong market recognition of gold's investment value amid global economic uncertainties [2] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Investment - Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons in Q1 2025, reaching a total of 138.21 tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 327.73% [3] - China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons, bringing the total to 2,292.33 tons by the end of March [3] - The simultaneous increase in gold holdings by the central bank and private investors highlights gold's growing importance in asset allocation [3] Group 4: Consumption Trends - Gold consumption in China totaled 290.492 tons in Q1 2025, a decline of 5.96% year-on-year [4] - Jewelry consumption fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while investment in gold bars and coins rose by 29.81% to 138.018 tons [4] - The high gold prices have suppressed jewelry demand, but there is a growing interest in innovative gold products among younger consumers [4] Group 5: Price Trends - By the end of March 2025, the London spot gold price was $3,115.10 per ounce, up 17.79% from the beginning of the year [5] - The average price for Q1 2025 was $2,859.62 per ounce, a 38.16% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 gold price closed at 730.80 yuan per gram, reflecting a 19.02% increase since the start of the year [5] Group 6: Market Insights - The structural changes in the gold market reflect deeper adjustments in the global economic landscape, with central bank purchases and private investment demand indicating a decline in trust in fiat currency systems [5] - Experts suggest that the high gold prices are pushing the industry to innovate and adapt to changing consumer preferences, emphasizing the cultural and aesthetic value of gold [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of high market volatility and the approaching earnings season, the demand for single - stock leveraged inverse tools has increased, leading to the intensive issuance of single - stock leveraged inverse products in the US last week. Additionally, the flow of funds in US ETFs and ordinary public funds shows certain trends, with alternative products flowing in more and single - stock leveraged products experiencing significant declines [1][6]. Summary by Catalog 1. US ETF Innovation Products: Intensive Issuance of Single - Stock Leveraged Inverse Products - Last week, 12 new products were issued in the US, almost all of which were single - stock leveraged inverse products. There were 11 single - stock leveraged inverse products from 5 companies, including 2 - times long products related to companies like Rivian, Lucid, ExxonMobil, Boeing, etc., and 1 - times inverse products linked to ExxonMobil and Boeing. Roundhill also issued a Covered Call product linked to Magnificent Seven [1][6]. 2. US ETF Dynamics 2.1 US ETF Fund Flows: More Inflows into Alternative Products - Last week, US equity ETFs continued to have some outflows, while alternative products such as Bitcoin had obvious inflows, and foreign exchange products also continued to flow in. Vanguard's MBS products had nearly $5 billion in outflows, and funds flowed into Charles Schwab's similar products, which outperformed slightly by about 0.2% this year. Several Bitcoin ETFs entered the top ten in terms of inflows. State Street's S&P 500 ETF had obvious outflows last week, while Vanguard's products continued to have stable inflows, and gold ETFs started to have large - scale outflows last Tuesday [1][7][9]. 2.2 US ETF Performance: Significant Declines in Single - Stock Leveraged Products - Since the beginning of this year, US stocks have seen significantly increased volatility, and the popular single - stock leveraged inverse products in the past two years have generally had large fluctuations. The two - times leveraged products of Tesla and Nvidia, which have the largest scale, have both declined by more than 50% this year, but the products still have a scale of over $3 billion. Only 1 of the top ten products is an inverse product [1][12]. 3. Recent Fund Flows of US Ordinary Public Funds - In February 2025, the total amount of non - money public funds in the US was $22.04 trillion, a decrease of $0.18 trillion compared to January 2025. In February, the S&P 500 fell by 1.42%, and the scale of domestic equity products in the US declined by 2.47%, with the impact of outflows expanding. From April 9th to April 16th, US domestic equity funds had a total outflow of $5.05 billion, and the outflows in the past month were relatively low, but bond products continued to have large - scale outflows of over $20 billion [1][13].