日债周四延续反弹，但分析人士警告这可能只是暂时喘息。 日本超长期国债周四连续第二日反弹，30年期国债收益率一度下行10个基点至3.62%，40年期收益率下行7.5个基点至3.980%。此前本周二市场经历剧烈 抛售，部分期限收益率单日飙升超过25个基点。 日本央行持有国债占比已降至2018年以来最低水平。据彭博宏观策略师Simon White分析，日本央行持有国债占未偿还总额的比例已跌破50%，这是八年 来首次。 日本央行正持续削减购债规模。2024年年中时，央行每月购买5.7万亿日元国债，目前已降至2.9万亿日元，预计明年初将进一步降至2.1万亿日元。 虽然从长期金融稳定角度看这是积极信号，但短期内市场正失去最重要的支撑。在日本央行逐步退出的背景下，国债市场将继续面临无序抛售风险。 多重抛售压力叠加 然而，据彭博社周四报道，日本央行持有国债占比已跌破50%关键水平至八年低点，随着央行继续削减购债规模，市场正失去最重要的支撑力量，结构 性抛售压力远未消退。 财务大臣片山皋月呼吁市场保持冷静，部分基金经理将近期收益率跳升视为逢低买入机会。但市场担忧政府和央行可能需要采取更多措施平抑收益率飙 升。 投资者正密切关注 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around Trump's sudden shift from a confrontational stance regarding Greenland to a diplomatic approach facilitated by NATO, which temporarily alleviates the threat of a transatlantic trade war but raises concerns about the unpredictability of his policies [1][2]. - Trump's announcement on January 21, stating that he would not implement the planned tariffs on Europe, marks a significant turn in the ongoing controversy over Greenland, although the details of the agreement remain unclear [1][2]. - The unexpected change disrupted a planned EU leaders' emergency meeting aimed at forming a united front against Trump's perceived economic coercion and territorial ambitions, highlighting the ongoing uncertainty in the market despite the temporary relief from tariff threats [1][2]. Group 2 - The focus of the discussions has shifted from territorial acquisition to security cooperation, with Trump hinting at U.S. interests in mineral rights and missile defense systems in Greenland, although he acknowledged the complexity of the proposal [2]. - European capitals are left confused by Trump's erratic behavior, with officials expressing concerns that his flexibility could undermine EU unity and exacerbate internal competition among member states regarding trade and geopolitical issues [2]. - Denmark has firmly reiterated that Greenland is not for sale, with its Foreign Minister emphasizing that U.S. ownership of the territory is a "red line," while also signaling a willingness to negotiate on security concerns [3].

摩根士丹利最新研究显示，在全球科技竞赛推动下，中国自动驾驶监管支持力度将加强，路上运营的Robotaxi数量有望增长两倍，中国供应链企 业将凭借成本和效率优势成为早期受益者。 据追风交易台消息，该行分析师Tim Hsiao在21日发布的预计，中国Robotaxi销量未来五年复合增长率将超过70%，且上行风险大于下行风险。中 美两国的Robotaxi生态系统已通过更完善的产业链在全球L4+自动驾驶领域确立领先地位。 从全球市场看，出租车和网约车平台上的1000万至1500万辆活跃车辆每天提供超过7000万次出行服务。扣除美中本土企业长期主导的40%市场份 额，剩余60%的全球市场——特别是司机成本高昂的发展中市场——将成为战略高地。中东逾12万辆出租车和网约车构成重要机遇，欧洲和新加 坡等东盟市场则可能从L4+技术普及中获得最显著收益。 摩根士丹利认为，从全球供应稀缺性角度看，中国硬件制造商——尤其是Robotaxi和激光雷达企业——将是早期受益者。 据该行估算，中国供应链可节省约40%的上市时间和30%的成本。到2026年，中国方案的成本优势可达3万至3.5万美元。这种成本和效率优势， 使得全球Robotax ...

Core Insights - The AI boom is reshaping global supply chains, benefiting companies like Toto, known for its bathroom fixtures, due to its semiconductor materials business [1] - Goldman Sachs upgraded Toto's rating, citing increased demand for its electrostatic chucks used in NAND storage chip manufacturing as AI infrastructure expands [1][2] - Toto's stock surged by 11%, marking its largest increase since February 2021, reflecting the significant impact of AI data center expansion on upstream supply chains [1] Company Overview - Toto has been a key player in the semiconductor and display supply chains for decades, with new business areas accounting for 42% of its total revenue for the fiscal year ending March 2025 [2] - The electrostatic chuck, produced by Toto since 1988, is crucial for fixing silicon wafers during chip manufacturing, helping to control temperature and prevent contamination [2] Market Dynamics - Major tech companies like Meta Platforms and Amazon are investing billions in AI service data centers, leading to a widespread shortage of semiconductor products [3] - This surge in demand has prompted global storage chip manufacturers, including SK Hynix, Samsung, and Kioxia, to expand production, directly increasing demand for products from upstream suppliers like Toto [3] Industry Trends - Toto is not the only Japanese consumer goods giant benefiting from the chip boom; companies like Ajinomoto and Kao have also established semiconductor-related businesses [4] - The rise in Toto's stock coincided with a broader rebound in AI-related stocks, indicating investor interest in undervalued assets that can benefit from the global competition in computing power [4]

Claude聊天机器人开发商Anthropic在营收飙升的同时面临盈利挑战。 据The Information周三报道，该公司上月将2025年毛利率预期下调至40%，较此前乐观预期低10个百分 点，原因是在谷歌和亚马逊服务器上运行AI模型的推理成本比预期高出23%。这一数据凸显出AI公司 在追求规模增长的同时，仍难以摆脱对云服务商的依赖及由此带来的成本压力。 尽管毛利率不及预期，Anthropic的财务表现仍显示出强劲增长势头。据知情人士透露，该公司预计 2025年营收将达到45亿美元，较2024年的3.81亿美元增长近12倍。这一增速主要得益于其Claude Code编 码工具和Cowork办公助手在企业市场的成功，目前至少有九家客户年消费超过1亿美元，其中微软的支 出预计将达到5亿美元。 相比之下，竞争对手OpenAI预计2025年毛利率约为46%，包含付费和免费ChatGPT用户的推理成本。 OpenAI 2025年营收超过130亿美元，虽然绝对规模仍领先，但Anthropic正在缩小差距——两家公司当 前月度营收分别为17亿美元和7.5亿美元。这一对比表明，在AI商业化竞赛中，运营效率与成本控制已 成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rules of the gold market have changed, with private sector investors entering the market to hedge against global policy risks, leading to a significant upward revision of gold price targets by Goldman Sachs from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce for the year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition for physical gold is intensifying as central banks and private capital vie for limited supplies, accelerating the upward trend in gold prices [2] - In 2023 and 2024, gold prices are expected to rise by 15% and 26% respectively, primarily driven by panic buying from central banks following the freezing of Russian reserves [2] - By 2025, gold prices are projected to surge by 67%, as central banks are no longer the sole major buyers, leading to increased competition with private investors [2] Group 2: Investment Behavior - Analysts note a significant increase in physical gold purchases by high-net-worth families and a surge in bullish options buying, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [4] - The gap between actual gold prices and Goldman Sachs' traditional model predictions has widened since 2025, indicating a shift in buying behavior [4] - The demand for new hedging tools against global macro policy risks has surged, reflecting a change in investor sentiment [4] Group 3: Price Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 17% increase in gold prices by the end of 2026, with emerging market central banks' diversification contributing 14 percentage points to this growth [5] - The average monthly gold purchases by central banks are expected to remain high at 60 tons, significantly above the pre-2022 average of 17 tons [5] - A return of funds to Western ETFs, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts, is expected to contribute an additional 3 percentage points to gold price increases [5] Group 4: Signals for Reversal - Despite the upward price target revision, the risk distribution for gold prices remains skewed towards the upside, with potential for increased private sector allocation [7] - Two key signals for a potential reversal in gold prices include a decline in central bank gold purchases to pre-2022 levels and a shift in Fed policy from rate cuts to rate hikes [7] - The lack of elasticity in gold supply means that high prices alone cannot resolve supply issues, and demand collapse would be necessary for a price reversal [7]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean stock market, represented by the Kospi index, has surpassed the 5000-point mark, indicating a significant revaluation of the economy, previously seen as a cyclical export market, now recognized as a key beneficiary in the global AI industry chain [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Kospi index rose by 2.2% on a recent Thursday, exceeding the target set by President Yoon Suk-yeol, with a total increase of over 95% in the past 12 months, making it one of the best-performing major stock indices globally [1]. - Major stocks leading this surge include Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Motor, with the Korean won also showing slight appreciation against the US dollar [1]. Group 2: AI Infrastructure and Investment Cycle - The current market rally is driven by technology-weighted stocks, with a deeper shift in perception regarding South Korea's role in the AI infrastructure, transitioning from a traditional export economy to a critical player in AI computing and data centers [3][4]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that South Korea is entering a new "infrastructure reinvestment cycle" driven by AI, comparable in significance to the semiconductor capital expenditure wave of the past decade [3]. Group 3: AI Service Penetration - AI services have rapidly penetrated both enterprise and consumer sectors, with significant applications in high-value scenarios such as coding, video production, and logistics [4]. - The monthly active users of ChatGPT in South Korea have reached 18 million, indicating a shift from niche technology users to mainstream adoption [4]. Group 4: Data Center Projects - Multiple large-scale AI data center projects, termed "Neocloud," have been announced, indicating a shift towards heavy asset cycles in the data center sector [5]. - Notable projects include a 100MW AI data center by SK Telecom and AWS, and a 120MW AI data center by Samsung SDS, with significant investments involved [5]. Group 5: Government Policies - The South Korean government, under President Yoon, is promoting AI through policies focused on sovereignty, infrastructure, regulatory reform, and talent development, with the "AI Superhighway" initiative being a key component [6]. - The government aims to decentralize data centers to stimulate local economies and reduce centralized power consumption, aligning with the Kospi's recent performance [6]. Group 6: Energy Infrastructure Challenges - The expansion of AI data centers is encountering structural issues within South Korea's energy system, particularly in the Jeollanam-do region, which has renewable energy potential but faces transmission bottlenecks [7]. - The "Energy Highway" project aims to address these challenges by utilizing high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology to enhance the efficiency of power transmission [7]. Group 7: Investment Opportunities - Following the Kospi's rise, the focus is shifting towards structural investment opportunities, particularly in AI infrastructure, with Samsung SDS identified as a key beneficiary in the AI data center investment theme [9]. - Companies involved in power equipment and transmission are also being reassessed for their potential, as the demand for high-capacity and quality power increases due to AI data centers [9].

虽然卡尼没有指名道姓地批评特朗普，但他言论的背景显而易见。特朗普已对世界大多数国家加征关 税，并威胁要采取更多措施，迫使欧洲国家让他吞并格陵兰岛。 加拿大总理卡尼批评大国经济胁迫后不到24小时，美国总统特朗普反唇相讥加拿大"不知感恩"。 1月21日周三，美国总统特朗普在瑞士达沃斯讲话表示，他想要格陵兰岛的原因之一是建造他提议的"金 穹顶"导弹防御系统，他说该系统"将保卫加拿大"，然后猛烈抨击了卡尼先生。 特朗普面对座无虚席的会场说道： 加拿大从我们这里得到很多好处。他们应该感激，但他们没有。我看了卡尼昨天的讲话，他 不太感激。加拿大因美国而存在。下次你发表声明时记住这一点，卡尼。 华尔街见闻提及，加拿大总理卡尼（Mark Carney）20日在达沃斯论坛上重磅演讲，指出基于规则的秩 序已死，中等强国应团结行动，抵制某些大国胁迫。 他暗示某大国利用经济一体化作为武器，以关税作为筹码，以金融基础设施作为胁迫手段，以供应链作 为可利用的漏洞。他强调包括世界贸易组织、联合国在内，集体解决问题的制度架构正面临威胁。 盟友关系面临考验 据报道，卡尼周三上午离开达沃斯，大约与特朗普抵达的时间相同，两人并未会面。 卡尼在20 ...

Core Insights - Japan's exports in December increased by 5.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, but exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 11.1%, casting a shadow over the annual growth outlook [1] - The trade surplus for December was 1,057 billion yen, significantly lower than the expected 3,566 billion yen [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports to the U.S. were primarily affected by weak demand for automobiles, auto parts, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, leading to a notable drop in shipments compared to the previous year [2] - Despite a trade agreement reducing tariffs to a baseline of 15%, Japanese automakers continue to face tariff pressures that impact their export performance [2] - In contrast, exports to other Asian regions showed strong performance, with a 10.2% increase in December, driven by robust demand for data center-related products amid the AI boom [1][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The decline in exports to the U.S. has raised concerns among analysts regarding the sustainability of future growth, as the temporary boost from the trade agreement has faded [2] - Japan's overall imports grew by 5.3% in December, surpassing market expectations, while the annual import growth for 2025 is projected at only 0.3%, reflecting lower energy prices [3] - For the full year, Japan's exports are expected to grow by 3.1%, successfully mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs, while the trade deficit is projected to narrow by 52.9% to 2.7 trillion yen [4]

（韩国综合指数本月累涨18.8%） 除半导体周期上行外，韩国国内旨在解决所谓"韩国折价"问题的公司治理改革正在取得成效，共同提振了投资者信心。Kiwoom Securities分析师 韩智英在近期报告中指出，由于估值仍处于合理水平，韩国综合指数仍有进一步上涨空间。 随着美国总统特朗普明确放弃对欧洲加征关税、并释放有关格陵兰问题的"框架性协议"表态，市场的风险偏好情绪从隔夜美股传导至亚太地区， 股市普遍上涨，而贵金属等避险资产同步回落。 周四亚太时段，韩国综合指数大涨2%，日经225指数上涨1.87%，芯片股成为最核心的推动力量。 | | | 亚太市场(AP) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩国KOSPI200 | 733.33 d | 18.39 | 2.57% | | 韩国综合指数 | 5017.16 d | 107.23 | 2.18% | | 日经225 | 53760.85 d | 986.21 | 1.87% | 华尔街见闻提及，英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，全球AI基础设施建设未来需要"数万亿美元级别投资"后，半导体板块买盘明显放大。英伟达供应商日 本Disco一度大涨 ...