期货日报网讯 2025年12月29日下午，中信期货通过线上会议与湖北竹山县柳林乡东风中心学校云端连 线，成功举办"信兴农·童期声"爱心捐助活动。中信期货中南分公司党支部书记、总经理苏仲博、中信 银行武汉分行公司银行部副总经理陈露露与柳林乡党委副书记曾磊、柳林乡中心学校党支部书记、校长 陶勇等线上参加捐赠活动，共同见证金融赋能乡村振兴的温暖时刻。 "虽隔着屏幕，我们仍能感受到这场'云端之约'的郑重与期待。教育是乡村振兴的根基，乡村的未来在 人才，而人才的培养离不开教育，希望这些设备能改善学校的教学条件，成为助力竹山教育提质的重要 工具"。 柳林乡中心学校党支部书记、校长陶勇介绍了学校办学情况。柳林乡党委副书记曾磊代表县委县政府和 柳林乡人民，对中信期货表示衷心感谢，并表示："教育是乡村发展的关键，此次捐助不仅为学校带来 实质性帮助，更为教育工作者带来精神鼓舞，希望能以此次活动为契机，进一步推动金融赋能乡村振兴 的更多实践。" 活动中，中信期货中南分公司渠道业务部资深业务总监陈厚烨为线上的师生们带来《期货的"前世今 生"》知识讲座。 此次云端教育帮扶，是中信期货牢记"为人民服务"的初心、响应乡村振兴战略的具体实践 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical event involving the U.S. capturing the Venezuelan president has significantly impacted the oil and asphalt markets, with expectations of a short-term disruption but a medium-term recovery in production levels [1] Group 1: Oil Market Impact - The short-term oil export blockade is expected to have a minimal impact on the market, with production anticipated to quickly recover to over 900,000 barrels per day [1] - The event has led to a price drop of approximately two dollars in the oil market [1] Group 2: Asphalt Market Reaction - Asphalt futures saw a significant increase, with prices rising by over 200 yuan per ton at the opening of the first trading day after New Year's, ultimately closing up by 111 yuan per ton [2] - The average price increase in the spot market was around 130-150 yuan per ton on the same day, indicating a strong market reaction [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The perceived tightening of asphalt production raw materials lacks real feedback, as there are still reports of Venezuelan resources being shipped, and floating storage inventories remain relatively ample [3] - Historical trends show that previous concerns over raw material shortages did not lead to long-term production disruptions, suggesting that the current market sentiment may be overly cautious [3] - The current high profitability of asphalt production may encourage refineries to increase output, countering the perceived supply constraints [3] Group 4: Price Valuation and Future Outlook - The relative price of asphalt has reached a high point, with the asphalt futures/Brent ratio exceeding 1.03 and the spot market ratio reaching 1.02, indicating a seasonal high [4] - Future valuation support may weaken if demand expectations decline due to the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and refinery production plans should be closely monitored for any unexpected increases [4] - The current oil market is expected to remain weak with significant supply and demand pressures, suggesting a cautious approach to participation in the market [4]

据央视新闻消息，记者当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调 查，调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。 该知情官员表示，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的分析以及对支出记录的审查，并于去年11月获得哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官珍妮娜·皮罗的批准。皮罗 是特朗普的长期盟友，去年被任命为该办公室负责人。 鲍威尔表示，他将继续恪守参议院确认的职责，以正直之心履行使命。 （文章来源：期货日报） 今日开盘后，金银价格飙升，创历史新高。外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合约盘 中涨逾5%，最高触及83.905美元/盎司。内盘方面，沪金期货主力合约盘中涨超3%，最高升至1031.30元/克；沪银期货主力合约盘中涨超12%，最高升至 20641元/千克。 美国总统特朗普去年12月29日说，他预计2026年1月宣布美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。鲍威尔将于今年5月结束任期。 自去年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products reflects the optimization and transformation of the government's support for the new energy industry, aiming to promote high-quality development in sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [1][2][3] Group 2 - The announcement states that from April 1, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely canceled, marking the first time this has occurred since the policy was introduced in October 2013, where companies previously enjoyed up to a 50% rebate [2][3] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that the cancellation of export rebates is expected to help stabilize overseas market prices and reduce the risk of trade frictions, while also alleviating the financial burden on the state [3][5] - The adjustment in export tax rebates is seen as a policy to promote high-quality development in the industry, with a warning effect already observed from the previous reduction in rebate rates [3][5] Group 3 - The policy adjustment for battery products includes a phased reduction of the export rebate rate from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation by January 1, 2027, aimed at guiding the industry away from mere scale expansion and towards enhancing product technology and value [5][6] - Major battery export companies include CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with CATL reporting a domestic gross margin of 23% and an overseas margin of 29% in Q1 2025 [6] - The upcoming changes in export tax rebates may lead to a short-term surge in export orders as companies rush to fulfill shipments before the new rates take effect, potentially benefiting the demand for lithium carbonate [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal is a crucial raw material for the steel industry, supporting an annual crude steel production of approximately 1 billion tons in China. The price of coking coal is influenced by various factors, including supply-demand dynamics, policy adjustments, and international trade conditions, leading to significant volatility. This volatility presents both opportunities and risks for market participants. The introduction of coking coal options on January 16 aims to provide a more flexible tool for price risk management, offering lower-cost and richer strategies for hedging and profit generation [1][2]. Coking Coal Market Characteristics and Options Application - The coking coal market exhibits distinct risk characteristics influenced by upstream and downstream factors, including coal mine capacity, import policies, and seasonal patterns. For instance, in the first half of 2025, coking coal prices fell significantly due to oversupply and weak downstream demand, with prices dropping from 1174.5 yuan/ton to 709.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 39.63% [2]. - The introduction of coking coal options is essential to address price volatility risks and meet the needs of spot market participants, serving as a complement to coking coal futures [2]. Complementarity of Coking Coal Options and Futures - Futures hedging primarily relies on reverse positions for risk mitigation, but in a one-sided price movement scenario, futures can incur continuous losses and require significant capital. Options enhance risk management flexibility by allowing buyers to limit losses to the premium paid while enjoying unlimited upside potential [3][4]. - Options require less capital efficiency, as buyers only need to pay a small premium without posting margin, thus reducing capital occupation [4]. - Options strategies can be tailored to different market expectations, allowing for various risk management needs [4]. Risk Management Strategies for Industry Chain Enterprises - Upstream production and trading companies can utilize options to protect against inventory devaluation risks due to price declines, allowing for potential profit retention during price increases [5][6]. - Basic strategy involves purchasing put options to hedge against price drops while maintaining the possibility of benefiting from price increases [7]. - Advanced strategies include combination strategies that involve buying puts while selling calls to offset costs, suitable for companies with slower inventory turnover [9]. Cost Control Strategies for Downstream Processing Enterprises - Downstream enterprises, such as washing and coking plants, can use options to lock in procurement costs against price increases [10]. - Basic strategy involves buying call options to secure maximum procurement prices, while advanced strategies may combine futures and options to hedge against short-term price fluctuations [12]. Strategies for Investors: Profit Generation and Risk Hedging - Investors can employ options strategies to capitalize on market trends and volatility without needing to predict price direction [14]. - Trend trading strategies include buying call options or bull spreads when a bullish trend is anticipated, while bearish trends can be addressed through buying put options or bear spreads [15][16]. - Volatility trading strategies can capture price movement opportunities by constructing straddles or strangles to benefit from significant price changes [17]. Strategies for Extreme Market Conditions - In extreme market conditions, options can be used to hedge against sudden price swings caused by policy changes or geopolitical events [19]. - Key strategies include buying straddles to protect against unknown price directions and utilizing call or put combinations to maximize returns while controlling costs [22][24]. Conclusion and Outlook - The introduction of coking coal options enhances the risk management capabilities of enterprises in the coal-steel industry, transitioning from passive hedging to proactive management. This tool aids in controlling procurement costs, hedging price risks, and stabilizing sales profits. The ongoing development of the coking coal options market is expected to expand opportunities for market participants [28].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market has shown relative stability at the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in both futures and spot markets despite a drop in crude oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main asphalt futures contract opened with a premium exceeding 200 yuan/ton after the New Year holiday, ultimately rising by 111 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot market also experienced a substantial increase, with average price rises between 130 to 150 yuan/ton [1]. - The valuation of asphalt has significantly increased, with the asphalt-to-Brent crude oil ratio rising above 1.03 for futures and reaching 1.02 for spot prices, both at historically high seasonal levels [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The asphalt market fundamentals remained relatively healthy in 2025, with effective inventory reduction leading to low inventory levels, particularly in factory stocks [2]. - Despite high profits for refineries in 2025, the winter storage prices were unexpectedly high, indicating a tight supply situation [2]. - There is a potential for significant contraction in asphalt demand in 2026, which could lead to increased production by refineries due to current high profit margins [2]. Group 3: Price Pressures and Future Outlook - The recent rapid increase in asphalt prices has likely already reflected positive expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [3]. - Key variables to monitor include the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" indicators, which could downgrade demand expectations and weaken valuation support [3]. - The ability to maintain price premiums will largely depend on fluctuations in crude oil costs, with the current crude oil market lacking a clear breakout logic [3].

1月9日，由期货日报与产业服务联盟联合主办的"2026年期货日报读者嘉年华暨期权精英荣誉盛典"在郑 州隆重举行。来自全国的期货及期权从业者、投资者教育专家、金融机构代表等齐聚一堂，围绕衍生品 市场创新发展、风险管理工具应用实践等议题展开深入交流，共同展望2026年市场新图景。 赋能行业生态：搭建服务实体经济的综合桥梁 作为年度首场行业盛会，本次活动以"'豫'见未来 共期卓越"为核心主题，汇聚行业智慧共探发展新局。 期货日报总经理兼总编辑陈邦华在开幕致辞中，深情回顾了期货日报三十余载的发展历程与时代使命。 陈邦华表示，期货日报的成长是一部与行业共生共荣的奋斗史。"我们的发展离不开产业服务联盟的协 同支持、实盘大赛合作商的全程护航、专家讲师的智慧分享，以及每一位普通交易者的真诚参与。正是 这些力量的汇聚，共同完善了我们的服务生态，也让期货市场服务实体经济、惠及广大投资者的路径愈 发清晰。"陈邦华说。 商品期权：聚焦高波动率品种与结构性行情 永安期货（600927）期权分析师郑捷飞就"2026商品+系列期权投资趋势"发表专题演讲。他认为，新一 年的商品期权投资应重点关注隐含波动率处于高位的品种以及由供需驱动的结构性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th anniversary of Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean oil futures marks its evolution into a cornerstone of China's oilseed market, reflecting the country's economic growth and the maturation of its futures market, while also enhancing risk management and price discovery functions [1] Group 1: Development and Achievements - Since its launch in 2006, soybean oil futures have grown significantly, with average daily trading volume increasing from 43,100 contracts to 445,000 contracts by 2025, and average open interest rising from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [4] - By the end of 2025, there are 33 delivery warehouses for soybean oil futures across seven provinces, ensuring ample delivery capacity and supporting industry participation in the futures market [4] - Over 90% of large and medium-sized soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, with the futures price becoming a key pricing benchmark for domestic soybean oil trade [4] Group 2: Market Adaptation and Risk Management - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented various measures to ensure soybean oil futures remain closely aligned with the physical market, including expanding delivery regions and optimizing delivery standards based on raw material quality changes [2][3] - The introduction of dynamic premium and discount systems and the establishment of delivery warehouses in key production areas have enhanced the flexibility and efficiency of the delivery process [2][3] - Companies like Jianghai Grain and Oil Group have effectively utilized futures for risk management, demonstrating the integration of futures into their operational strategies to stabilize profits and manage price volatility [8][9] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Global Impact - The soybean oil industry has transitioned from reliance on foreign oil to a competitive landscape dominated by state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises, driven by the need for price risk management [5][6] - By 2025, China is projected to produce approximately 18.71 million tons of soybean oil, accounting for about 30% of global production and consumption, establishing itself as the largest producer and consumer [6] - The opening of the soybean oil futures market to foreign investors and the introduction of related contracts in international markets have enhanced China's pricing influence in global oilseed trade [14][15] Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Importance - The development of soybean oil futures serves as a model for the broader Chinese futures market, emphasizing the importance of being rooted in the physical industry and driven by genuine risk management needs [16][17] - The collaborative efforts of regulatory bodies, exchanges, and industry participants have been crucial in nurturing a mature market that effectively serves the entire supply chain [17] - As the market evolves, companies are encouraged to enhance their risk management capabilities and leverage futures and options to navigate increasing market complexities and competition [18]

1月9日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，产品清单明确将 PVC粉、未塑化PVC、已塑化PVC纳入调整范围，核心影响条款关乎PVC出口：自2026年4月1日起，取 消PVC粉增值税出口退税。 目前，该品类的出口退税率为13%。该政策对PVC市场的深远影响，正引发产业界与资本市场的广泛关 注。 卓创资讯（301299）分析师李敏表示，这一政策将直接抬升出口成本。以当前国内PVC粉价格4500元/ 吨计算，退税取消后出口成本将增加约75美元/吨。 从出口基本面看，近年来中国PVC粉出口已成为弥补国内需求不足的重要支撑。数据显示，2024年出口 总量达261.7万吨，2025年预计突破380万吨，出口量持续攀升的背后，是全球需求增加与国内供大于求 格局的双重推动。 "即便抢出口带动价格短期反弹，大概率也是昙花一现。"阙云云坦言。 市场曾出现猜测，美国PVC货源或借机替代中国产品，填补海外需求缺口。但这一逻辑被基本面数据否 定。 阙云云介绍，美国PVC出口存在明确的区域锁定性：墨西哥和加拿大进口依存度超60%，且其中90%的 进口量来自美国，这意味着美国货源的核心市场是北美地区。"若 ...

Group 1 - The core task of coordinating investment and financing in China's capital market has become a strategic focus for the central government, emphasizing its importance for high-quality development and the construction of a strong financial system [1][2] - The term "comprehensive reform" in the context of deepening capital market reforms highlights the systemic and multidimensional nature of the work, aiming to create a complete ecosystem conducive to investment and financing coordination [1] - The coordination of investment and financing must be integrated into the overall planning of national economic and financial development, requiring a comprehensive approach that considers various levels and structures [1] Group 2 - In recent years, significant progress has been made in the coordination of investment and financing, with regulatory bodies implementing a series of institutional reforms and regulations [2] - Feedback from the market indicates that policy effects are gradually becoming evident, such as increased support for high-tech enterprises and a rise in long-term and patient capital entering the market [2] - As the functions of investment and financing coordination in the capital market improve, the market's role in supporting high-quality development and the construction of a strong financial nation will continue to enhance [2]