12月26日，国务院关税税则委员会发布关于2026年关税调整方案的公告，决定自2026年1月1日起，对钢 铁、煤炭、有色、棉花和尿素等商品的进口关税税率和税目进行调整。 新年度进口棉花大概率将成为市场关注的焦点 在进口棉花方面，与2025年相比，方案基本没有变化，但由于新年度国内棉花种植面积等将出现较大调 整，这让新年度进口棉花大概率会成为市场关注的焦点。 宁波市棉纺织品经销商周传良告诉期货日报记者，2026年我国棉花进口关税配额总量为89.4万吨，且不 限定贸易方式，配额外进口棉花继续实施滑准税形式的进口暂定税率。具体税率设置为：配额内关税普 通税率125%、最惠国税率40%、关税配额税率1%。配额外滑准税具体计算方式为当进口棉花计税价格 高于或等于14.000元/千克时，按0.280元/千克计征从量税；当进口棉花计税价格低于14.000元/千克时， 采用公式计算暂定从价税率。 周传良表示，滑准税机制可以通过价格与税率的反向关联，自动调节进口棉花成本，稳定国内市场价格 波动。配额内享受1%的低关税，有利于保障国内纺织企业基本原料需求。配额外通过滑准税保护国内 棉农利益，可以防止低价棉花冲击市场。据了解，棉花 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply expansion cycle, with production growth significantly outpacing demand, leading to concerns about supply contraction and rising costs. Nickel prices have reached a new low since 2021, but the potential for further declines is limited, indicating a possible formation of a temporary bottom [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent divergence in the non-ferrous metals market shows copper and aluminum prices reaching new highs, while nickel continues to weaken, primarily due to its cyclical challenges and policy disruptions from key producing regions [1]. - Nickel production in China is projected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 19.34%. This is coupled with relatively slow growth in downstream demand, resulting in a significant accumulation of global nickel inventory, which has exceeded 310,000 tons by early December, marking an increase of over 100,000 tons for the year [2]. Group 2: Cost Dynamics - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost line for purchasing raw materials and certain integrated processes. However, the industry's minimum production costs continue to decline, leading the market to anchor around these lower costs, which diminishes strong cost support at current price levels [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel supplier, has signaled potential changes that could significantly impact future supply. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has indicated that the mining quota for 2026 may be drastically reduced to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to revise the pricing and tax rules for nickel, which will increase mining costs by treating cobalt and other associated minerals as independent commodities subject to royalties. This could lead to a supply gap if the mining quotas are implemented as planned, thereby raising costs across the industry [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply contraction, especially after significant price adjustments and valuation compressions, leading to a rapid price rebound based on expectations of rising costs [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of nickel prices will heavily depend on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and the specific implementation of related tax policies [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable achievement of Yuan Yongjian, who turned an initial investment of 1,035 yuan into nearly 170 times that amount within 126 trading days during a futures trading competition [1] Group 1: Psychological Transformation - A significant turning point in Yuan's trading career occurred after a painful lesson in early 2022 when he faced a margin call on soybean meal futures, leading to a realization of the market's uncertainties [2] - This experience prompted Yuan to explore options trading, recognizing the limited loss potential for buyers as a necessary certainty in his trading strategy [3] - Yuan's acceptance of being a "market weakling" is framed as a powerful psychological shift, allowing him to focus on manageable risks rather than attempting to predict market movements [4] Group 2: Trading Discipline and Strategy - The core of Yuan's trading system is based on the principle of "low price is king," which is informed by extensive data analysis rather than intuition [5] - He emphasizes the importance of patience, stating that he only engages in high-probability opportunities and spends most of his time waiting for the right moment [5] - Yuan integrates trading into his life, prioritizing family and personal well-being over trading, which helps him maintain emotional control [5] Group 3: Psychological Resilience - The final day of the competition showcased Yuan's psychological strength, as he maintained his routine and composure despite being in second place before the last trading day [6] - He made calculated decisions based on probabilities and was prepared to accept losses, demonstrating a readiness to adapt quickly to unexpected market movements [6][7] - True psychological resilience is characterized not by the absence of mistakes but by the ability to recover swiftly from them [7] Group 4: Life and Trading Philosophy - Yuan articulates a profound connection between trading success and quality of life, advising those struggling in trading to focus on their personal lives to regain strength [8] - He suggests that small capital experimentation is essential before achieving stable profits, emphasizing that losses should not disrupt normal life [8] - Yuan's journey from a margin call to championship serves as a testament to the importance of self-reflection and continuous improvement in trading [8]

Group 1: Import Tariff Adjustments - The State Council Tariff Commission announced adjustments to import tariffs for steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, cotton, and urea effective January 1, 2026 [1] - The total import quota for cotton in 2026 is set at 894,000 tons, with a general tariff rate of 125% within the quota and a sliding scale tax for imports outside the quota [2][3] - The sliding tax mechanism for cotton aims to stabilize domestic market prices by adjusting import costs based on price fluctuations [3] Group 2: Impact on Cotton Industry - The new cotton import quota system allows for year-round applications, facilitating easier access for companies with previous import records [3] - Adjustments in cotton planting areas in major production regions like Xinjiang are expected to impact market dynamics significantly [3] - The low tariff rate of 1% for urea and other fertilizers is intended to ensure food security and stabilize agricultural production costs [6][7] Group 3: Steel and Coal Market Insights - The tariff adjustments for steel and coal remain largely unchanged from 2025, with zero tariffs on recycled steel materials to encourage imports [4][5] - China's crude steel production reached 892 million tons in the first 11 months of the year, accounting for 54% of global output, with steel exports hitting a record high of nearly 11 million tons [4] - The overall supply-demand balance in the steel market is stable, although there are pressures on raw material supply due to rising iron ore inventories [5] Group 4: Urea and Fertilizer Market Dynamics - The continuation of the 1% low tax rate for urea is seen as a measure to enhance market confidence and prevent price volatility in agricultural inputs [7][9] - Despite the low tax rate, the direct impact on the urea industry is minimal due to sufficient domestic production capacity, with annual output exceeding 70 million tons [8] - The low tax rate policy is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the urea market, enhancing the industry's resilience to risks [9] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals Tariff Stability - The import tariffs for copper and aluminum products remain unchanged, reflecting a strategy focused on stabilizing domestic supply and costs [10] - The unchanged tariffs aim to support domestic smelting and processing enterprises while ensuring supply chain security [10] - The policy shift includes the removal of temporary tariffs on certain products like sulfuric acid, reverting to the most-favored-nation rate [10][11]

Group 1: Yemen Situation - Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes on Mukalla port in Yemen, leading to a nationwide state of emergency declared for 90 days by the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council [1][2] - The airstrikes targeted weapons and military vehicles unloaded from two Emirati ships that entered Mukalla port without coalition permission [1] - The coalition's actions were described as necessary to protect civilians in the Hadhramaut and Mahra provinces due to the threat posed by the weapons [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated that most participants supported a rate cut in December, with a consensus on the economy expanding at a moderate pace [3] - Participants noted a rise in inflation since the beginning of the year and expressed uncertainty regarding GDP growth forecasts [3] - The market's expectations for rate cuts have not significantly changed, with traders leaning towards two rate cuts next year rather than three [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Domestic precious metal futures prices experienced a collective decline, with gold and silver contracts dropping by 3.11% and 3.96% respectively [7] - Analysts attribute the recent price drop to a technical correction following previous strong gains and a lack of market liquidity during the holiday season [7] - The outlook for precious metals remains influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising demand for safe-haven assets [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a strong rally, with Zheng cotton futures breaking through key resistance levels, driven by strong expectations of reduced cotton production and supported by supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Zheng cotton futures have seen a price increase of nearly 1,000 yuan per ton since December, outperforming U.S. cotton [1]. - The market's bullish sentiment is largely due to expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, confirmed by a recent meeting of the Xinjiang Cotton Industry Development Leadership Group [1]. - The current supply-demand balance in the cotton market is tight, with a significant reduction in import ratios and low carryover stocks, preventing a loose supply situation [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side remains resilient, with retail sales of clothing and textiles reaching 154.2 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2]. - Despite a slight decrease in operating rates among midstream textile enterprises, the demand for yarn remains strong, indicating manageable inventory pressures [2]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Comparisons - The market is characterized by a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with rising cotton prices exceeding processing costs for ginning factories, leading to some hedging pressures [3]. - The seasonal off-peak period is affecting downstream cotton yarn prices, which are struggling to keep pace with rising cotton prices, potentially impacting profit margins for yarn manufacturers [3]. - In contrast to Zheng cotton's strength, U.S. cotton prices remain stagnant due to a lack of sufficient driving factors, leading to an expanding price gap between domestic and international cotton [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, driven by a combination of strong expectations and realities, reducing the likelihood of a reversal into bearish territory [4]. - There are expectations for favorable policy adjustments, particularly regarding cotton subsidies aimed at enhancing quality, with the target price subsidy policy set to undergo changes in 2026 [4]. - Overall, the market sentiment remains optimistic in the short term, with medium to long-term projections indicating potential upward price movement supported by supply reduction expectations and resilient demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery due to expectations of a loose monetary environment at the end of the year, although volatility remains high and the market lacks a clear direction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market sentiment has improved, supported by a loose funding environment and year-end allocation expectations, providing short-term bullish opportunities for traders [1]. - The current bond market is characterized by significant volatility, influenced heavily by market sentiment and expectations, particularly as institutions face profit-taking pressures at year-end [1]. - The long-end government bond yields have limited upward space, with the key position for the 10-year government bond yield remaining at 1.85% [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy is in a wave-like operation phase, with internal momentum recovery being a slow variable, and the economic data showing a structural characteristic of "strong production, weak domestic demand" [3]. - The economic fundamentals are still in a bottoming phase, with increasing pressure on the demand side in the fourth quarter, leading to a weak short-term entity financing demand [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with interbank liquidity expected to maintain a balanced and loose pattern, alleviating concerns about year-end liquidity [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in the scale of central bank purchases of government bonds, as the total net injection of MLF and reverse repos decreases [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face significant pressure in 2026, with global economic visibility likely to improve, potentially impacting domestic bond markets negatively [5]. - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to exert pressure on the bond market, with a low likelihood of a repeat of the inflationary trends seen in 2006 or 2017 [5]. - The macro environment's continued warming may lead to a preference for equity markets over bonds, with increasing supply of long-end bonds and limited demand from banks and insurance companies [5][6]. Group 5: Policy Framework - The fiscal policy is expected to continue its expansionary stance, emphasizing actual spending and structural improvements, with a projected slight increase in the narrow deficit ratio to 4.2% [6]. - Monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions remain options, with a focus on flexible and efficient implementation [6][7]. - The bond market is likely to exhibit characteristics of "top and bottom" with amplified volatility, particularly in the long-end segment, while the central bank's support for year-end liquidity will bolster the mid-short end of the bond market [7].

一、液化天然气浪潮 2026年将开启全球液化天然气(LNG)扩张浪潮，有人将其比作"海啸"式扩张。预计从2026年至2028年，全球将有大量的新的天然气液化产能投 产，成为史上规模最大的一轮液化天然气供给扩张。 天然气交易员将密切关注已进入启动阶段的美国液化天然气项目进展，以及预计于2026年至2027年投产的相关项目。液化天然气的产能扩张意味 着美国原料气需求将大幅增加，而原料气需求的预期增长发生延迟可能对亨利港期货价格形成压力。截至2025年12月，亨利港期货价格已上升至 每百万英热单位4.70美元以上。 预计非欧佩克产油国的原供应量将继续增长，可能对油价产生下行压力 鉴于石油需求、油价与股市之间的强相关性，人工智能可能成为2026年WTI原油价格的关键影响因素 2025年能源市场被频发的贸易紧张局势和地缘政治不确定性所笼罩，这一定程度上掩盖了天然气和石油市场正在发生的结构性转型。2026年是否 仍将延续这一局面？以下是影响2026年能源市场的五大关键因素。 2026年投产的的液化天然气还包括卡塔尔日产达43亿立方英尺的北方气田东部(North Field East)项目。随着北方气田东部项目、美国境内项 ...

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market is currently experiencing a weak and volatile pattern, with a decline in overall market volatility and an increase in cautious sentiment as the focus shifts from strong policy expectations to the realities of a weak off-season [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The volatility of steel prices has significantly narrowed due to a lack of strong supply-demand contradictions that could support a trend in the market [1] - On the supply side, the industry lacks strong top-down policies to counteract internal competition, leading to production adjustments primarily driven by market profit and loss [1] - The apparent consumption of rebar continues to decline, and the demand for hot-rolled coils is also weak, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing rhythm in the spot market [1] Group 2: Macro Economic Environment - The macroeconomic policy remains stable, with expectations for large-scale stimulus cooling down, leading the market to focus more on the actual implementation of policies and marginal improvements in micro data [4] - Trading behavior based solely on macro optimism or pessimism has decreased, with the current focus shifting to immediate responses to inventory and spot transactions [4] Group 3: Cost and Supply Factors - The cost side is unstable, with increasing supply pressures on carbon and iron elements, particularly due to significant increases in imported coal from Mongolia and Russia, which have alleviated previous regional supply tensions [4][5] - The supply of iron elements is becoming more relaxed, with increased shipments from overseas mines and high port arrival volumes, leading to a cautious demand outlook [5] - The current low profitability of steel mills and pessimistic winter storage expectations have resulted in a lack of motivation for replenishing iron ore inventories, maintaining a low inventory production strategy [5] Group 4: Policy Impact on Exports - Recent discussions regarding steel export licensing management have not led to significant price fluctuations, as the core intention of the policy is to regulate export order and avoid chaotic low-price competition among domestic enterprises [10] - The policy aims to shift the market focus from quantity to quality and efficiency, becoming a continuous variable affecting the internal and external trade landscape of steel [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current steel market is in a narrow range with a ceiling supported by high visible inventories and limited terminal consumption capacity [8] - Breaking this high inventory, low volatility, and tight balance pattern will require more policy support, with a focus on either constraints on steel production or improvements in terminal demand [8] - The recommended trading strategy is to adopt a range-bound approach, with rebar prices expected to be between 3050 and 3200 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil prices between 3200 and 3350 yuan/ton, closely monitoring inventory depletion rates and cost sustainability [8]

今年以来，全球铜价持续攀升。临近岁末，沪铜期货价格更是突破每吨10万元大关，创历史新高，引发 广泛关注。"铜"欢的动力来自哪里？释放了哪些信号？其背后又隐藏着哪些产经密码？ ...