Group 1 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have significantly declined, with rapeseed meal leading the drop in the oilseed sector, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1][2] - Analysts expect an increase in soybean imports from the U.S. due to changes in the macro environment, which may alleviate the tight domestic soybean supply situation [1][2] - The increase in Brazilian soybean exports and high export levels from Argentina have contributed to a surplus in international market supply, impacting U.S. soybean export opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - The anticipated high soybean import volume in China from September to December is expected to prolong the soybean meal inventory accumulation cycle until the end of November, leading to ample short-term supply [1][2] - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have made progress, enhancing expectations for China's procurement of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, which may negatively affect soybean meal prices [2] - Domestic measures to adjust pig breeding capacity, including a reduction of approximately 1 million sows, may impact future demand for soybean meal as feed [2] Group 3 - The rapeseed meal market is facing weak fundamentals, with increased expectations for importing Canadian canola seeds due to improved relations between Canada and China [3] - Seasonal declines in aquaculture demand have led to decreased purchasing activity from farmers, resulting in reduced transaction volumes and continuous declines in spot prices for rapeseed meal [3] - The recent improvement in China-Australia relations and increased orders for Australian canola seeds have weakened the supportive impact of halting Canadian canola seed imports on domestic rapeseed meal prices [3]

美联储如期降息！ 当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%~4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 尽管美国通胀率有所上升，并维持在略高的水平，但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联储终于采取降息措施。近 期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放缓，就业增长放缓，经济前景的不确定性依然存在，就业下行风险上升。 会议纪要显示，委员会将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。美联储将维持当前资产负债表缩 减速度。 刚被任命的美联储理事、目前仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的斯蒂芬·米兰是唯一持不同意见的，他支持降息50个 基点。 随政策会议纪要一同发布的点阵图也显示，美联储官员预计到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基 点。不出意外，点阵图上也出现了刺眼的"白宫降息呼声"。 毫无疑问，点阵图上最突兀的那个点有极大概率来自米兰。按照他的预期，9月降息后，美联储应该在年内再额外 进行至少100个基点的降息。 点阵图同时显示，9月降息后，除米兰外的18位官员中，有1人认为年底前应该 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol futures prices are experiencing a volatile consolidation phase, influenced by increased supply from new projects and declining industry profits [1][2][8] Supply - Ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is at 66.55%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week; total production is 404,600 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [2] - The production capacity of coal-based ethylene glycol is at 65.96%, down 2.47% week-on-week, while oil-integrated facilities show a slight increase in utilization [2] - Overall, supply remains relatively ample, with expectations of slight production growth as some coal chemical facilities resume operations [2][8] Inventory - As of September 15, the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is 395,600 tons, an increase of 32,400 tons from the previous week [4] Demand - Domestic polyester industry weekly production is 1,546,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.74% week-on-week, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.9% [5] - Demand in the weaving sector shows a slight recovery, with average order days increasing to 14.55 days, although large orders remain scarce [7] Cost Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production, but geopolitical risks and seasonal declines in oil consumption are putting pressure on international oil prices [1] - The cost structure for ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to falling prices of crude oil and coal [8] Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a decrease in domestic ethylene glycol production with a potential increase in imports, maintaining stable overall supply [8] - The weak price trend for ethylene glycol is likely to persist, with forecasts suggesting continued downward pressure [8]

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures prices have been weakly fluctuating since September, with domestic supply being ample and reduced purchasing from downstream enterprises leading to increased market supply pressure. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" raises questions about whether the expected demand will materialize [1]. Supply and Production - As maintenance facilities resume production, the supply pressure of caustic soda is gradually increasing. As of September 12, the domestic weekly production of caustic soda was 821,100 tons, maintaining a high level for the same period over the past four years [1]. - The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.4%, with expectations for further increases as maintenance plans decrease [1]. Inventory Levels - As of September 12, the inventory of enterprises was 356,800 tons, remaining at a relatively high level. In Shandong, the inventory reached 162,400 tons, an increase of 3.6% compared to the previous period [2]. Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rates in most downstream industries for caustic soda have peaked and are now declining. For alumina, the capacity utilization rate was 83% as of September 12, down 1 percentage point from the previous period, indicating a potential peak [2]. - In Shandong, the quantity of caustic soda delivered to major downstream customers has significantly increased, with alumina enterprises' raw material inventories also rising. The spot price of alumina in Shandong has decreased, negatively impacting the caustic soda market [2]. Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite being in the demand peak season of September and October, the overall capacity utilization in downstream industries is at high levels with limited room for further increases. The market supply pressure remains significant, suggesting that the weak fundamentals are unlikely to change [9]. - As of early September, caustic soda spot prices remained high, but by mid-September, prices showed signs of easing, with Shandong downstream enterprises continuously lowering procurement prices, leading to increased bearish sentiment in the market. As of September 16, the ex-factory average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 820 yuan per ton [9]. Conclusion - Overall, while the demand growth expectations during the peak season may provide some support for prices, the limited room for further increases in capacity utilization in downstream industries and ongoing supply pressure suggest that the fundamentals remain weak. It is anticipated that spot prices may have further room to decline, with futures prices reflecting the demand-side benefits and likely maintaining a range-bound fluctuation during the peak season [9].

Group 1 - The asphalt market has entered the consumption peak season, traditionally from August to October, but this year it was delayed to September due to widespread rainfall across the country [1] - Despite being in the consumption peak season, the market is characterized by "active trading but weak prices," with asphalt prices not rising due to inventory depletion [1] - As of September 15, the low-price negotiation range for asphalt was 3520 to 3650 yuan/ton, with a slight increase, while the high-price negotiation range saw a small decline [1] Group 2 - The futures market is experiencing a decline in bullish sentiment due to weak fundamentals, leading to pressure on asphalt prices [2] - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have both lowered global oil demand forecasts for the next two years, which weakens cost support for asphalt futures [2] - Despite the current weak market conditions, geopolitical risks and global trade tensions could lead to sudden increases in oil prices, potentially driving asphalt prices up [2]

Group 1 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have significantly declined, with rapeseed meal leading the drop in the oilseed sector, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - Analysts expect an increase in China's imports of U.S. soybeans, which may alleviate the tight domestic soybean supply situation, while Brazilian soybean exports are rising and Argentine exports remain high, contributing to ample international supply [1][2] - Domestic soybean imports from September to December are projected to be high, leading to a continued accumulation of soybean meal stocks until the end of November, with weekly inventories rising [1][2] Group 2 - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have made progress, enhancing expectations for China's procurement of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, which negatively impacts soybean meal prices [2] - Measures to adjust the breeding sow population in China may affect future demand for soybean meal in feed [2] - Despite a significant drop in soybean meal prices, uncertainties surrounding U.S. soybean exports may provide some rebound potential [2] Group 3 - The rapeseed meal market is facing weak fundamentals, with increased expectations for Canadian canola imports and a decline in purchasing activity from aquaculture due to seasonal demand [3] - Trade policies are acting as a double-edged sword for rapeseed meal prices, with the cessation of Canadian canola imports providing support, while improved relations with Australia and increased orders for Australian canola are weakening this support [3] - Canadian canola harvest is progressing, with a reported 3.6% year-on-year increase in production, which could further pressure rapeseed meal prices if imports resume [3][4] Group 4 - Short-term inventory pressures for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are manageable, but port inventories of granular meal are at historically high levels, limiting upward price movement [4] - Traders are advised to closely monitor developments in China-Canada trade negotiations [4]

Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July's 5.7% [1] - Month-on-month growth in August was 0.37%, slightly lower than July's 0.38% [1] - The decline in industrial added value is primarily attributed to a decrease in external demand and cautious expansion attitudes among enterprises due to high tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Retail and Services - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 323,906 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [1] - In August alone, retail sales totaled 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month [1] - The growth in retail sales was supported by strong demand in service consumption, particularly in tourism and transportation, while the reliance on subsidies decreased [1] Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, showing a slowdown in growth [2] - In August, manufacturing investment fell by 1.3% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating compared to the previous month [2] - Real estate development investment dropped by 19.9% year-on-year in August, with a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to July [2] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed weak performance while the Producer Price Index (PPI) improved [2] - There is a strong market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which may ease external constraints and open up more room for domestic monetary policy to be "moderately loose" [2] - The potential for a rate cut in the fourth quarter is increasing due to the current economic conditions [2] Group 5: Bond Market Outlook - The impact of data on the bond market has become relatively muted, with the main influencing factors being the stock-bond "see-saw" effect, policy expectations, and institutional behavior [3] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to unchanged economic fundamentals and a loose monetary environment [3]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that with appropriate policy support, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) could drive global trade growth by nearly 40% by 2040 [1] - AI is expected to significantly enhance global trade and GDP growth, with trade volumes projected to increase by 34% to 37% and global GDP by 12% to 13% by 2040, depending on policy and technological advancements [1] - The WTO emphasizes the potential of AI to reduce trade costs and improve productivity, but highlights the uneven ability of different economies to access AI technology and participate in digital trade [1] Trade and AI Development - Trade can facilitate access to AI and the necessary investments for its development, promoting innovation and opening new pathways for growth [1] - To harness the potential of AI in trade, stakeholders must take deliberate actions to bridge the digital divide and promote regulatory consistency [1] Policy Recommendations - The report notes a significant increase in restrictions on AI-related goods, from 130 measures in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024, urging the need for open and predictable trade policies [1] - Strengthening international cooperation, particularly in the intersection of AI and trade, is essential for broader participation in AI development across economies [1] - The WTO is positioned to play a central role in ensuring that AI supports inclusive trade-led growth [1]

最后，特朗普施压及美联储内部分歧或加速美联储恢复降息进程。一方面，特朗普上任以来，多次对美联储表示不满，认为美联储降息进程"过慢"。另一方 面，在7月份的美联储议息会议上，美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼对维持利率不变的决议投下反对票，认为应当立即降息25个基点，理由是美国劳动力市场有疲软 迹象。这是30多年来首次有两位理事投票反对利率决定，凸显美联储的内部分歧。叠加7月、8月非农数据接连"爆冷"，美联储内部的鸽派或将得到更多支 持，从而有利于美联储加快推进降息进程。 当前，市场聚焦美联储9月议息会议。如果美联储本月超预期降息50个基点，或在会议中透露年内仍将多次降息，那么黄金价格就被注入了更多的上涨动 能。反之，如果美联储本月仅降息25个基点，且没有透露出更多有关降息的信息，那么黄金价格将失去上涨动能，出现"靴子落地"式的回落行情。 9月份以来，黄金期货出现一波明显的涨幅。截至9月16日收盘，沪金期货主力合约AU2510的收盘价为842.08元/克，较8月最后一个交易日的收盘价785.12元/ 克，上涨6.76%。此轮黄金期货价格上涨的动能主要来自市场对美联储9月降息预期升温，其他因素如地缘扰动等，亦起到了"锦上添花" ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic natural rubber market is experiencing a strong upward trend due to a temporary tightening of supply, steady demand growth, and favorable macroeconomic factors [1] Demand Side Expectations - Internationally, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, providing support for the commodity market. August non-farm payrolls added 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, which has enhanced market expectations for the probability and extent of rate cuts. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 will be crucial [2] - Domestically, multiple policies are working together to boost consumer confidence and improve market development expectations. The reintroduction of national subsidies in September, focusing on the automotive sector, is expected to increase vehicle sales by 10%, directly benefiting downstream demand for natural rubber. In August, domestic automobile production reached 2.815 million units, a month-on-month increase of 223,900 units, with a growth rate of 8.64%. The inventory warning index for automobile dealers decreased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a clear trend of increased production and reduced inventory [2] - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, coupled with the national subsidy policy, tire manufacturers' operating rates are expected to further rise. As of September 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires rose to 66.31%, a weekly increase of 5.57 percentage points, while the operating rate of semi-steel tires reached 72.61%, a weekly increase of 5.69 percentage points. Although the inventory days in Shandong remain at a high level compared to the past five years, they have decreased by 1.69% from the previous month, indicating a marginal alleviation of inventory pressure [2] Supply Side Conditions - As rainfall decreases and weather improves in major production areas, the efficiency of rubber tapping has increased, leading to a weakening of support for rubber prices from the raw material side. Although Thailand and Hainan are still experiencing peak rainfall, the weekly rainfall in Thailand has decreased by 1.08%, while Hainan's rainfall has increased by 133.02%. The peak rainfall season in Yunnan has ended, with a recent weekly decrease of 21.21% in rainfall, significantly improving tapping conditions [3] - Raw material prices are stabilizing domestically while showing slight declines internationally. As of September 15, the price of Yunnan rubber remained at 14,800 yuan per ton, stable in recent times. The FOB price of Thai cup rubber has dropped to 51 Thai baht per kilogram, down 1.7 Thai baht per kilogram from the previous week, while the FOB price of cup rubber has slightly increased by 0.2 Thai baht per kilogram compared to last week [3] Potential Risks - On September 10, Mexico proposed to raise tariffs on cars from Asia to a maximum of 50% to protect local jobs. If this policy is implemented, it may impact domestic automobile exports and subsequently affect natural rubber demand. However, there has not yet been a substantial impact [4] - Previously, OPEC+ maintained its production increase strategy, leading to expectations of falling oil prices, which in turn dragged down synthetic rubber prices and affected natural rubber trends. Future international geopolitical conflicts may boost oil prices, causing fluctuations in synthetic rubber prices. As a major substitute for natural rubber, the price trends of synthetic rubber will continue to influence market sentiment for natural rubber [4] - Overall, the current domestic natural rubber market's growth in demand, tightening inventory, and favorable macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged. Although the marginal supply from production areas has weakened raw material support, the resilience of demand and macroeconomic support still dominate the market [4]