其一，积极布局首日交易，把握市场先机。2025年6月10日上期所铸造铝合金期货上市，申银万国期货 组建了专业服务团队，提前为SYC提供品种研究、交易规则解读、风险对冲策略设计等全流程指导。通 过前期市场供需调研、模拟交易演练，SYC成功参与上市首日首批交易，成为行业内率先介入新品种交 易的企业。这让企业快速熟悉了铸造铝合金期货的交易机制与市场特点，为后续风险管理积累了宝贵实 践经验。 其二，创新期货定价模式，优化贸易生态。针对传统现货贸易中价格波动导致的交易不确定性问题，申 银万国期货旗下风险管理公司申万智富与SYC联合推出"期货定价+升贴水约定"的现货贸易模式。双方 在签订现货贸易合同时，以上期所铸造铝合金期货价格为基准，根据产品质量、交货地点、交货周期等 因素约定合理升贴水，提前锁定采购成本与销售价格。申银万国期货全程提供定价基准测算、升贴水协 商支持、风险敞口管理等专业服务，该模式显著提升了买卖双方的交易透明度与公平性，有效规避了价 格波动带来的利润损失，同时降低了上下游客户合作风险、提高了交易效率，迅速获得市场认可。 其三，多维推进产业参与，深化生态融合。为推动合作向纵深发展，申银万国期货协助SYC启 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Indonesia's RKAB quota and the anticipated taxation policy on cobalt have led to a rapid rebound in nickel prices, with the main contract reaching a peak of 130,880 yuan/ton, indicating a significant V-shaped reversal in technical patterns [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota Reduction - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the RKAB quota for 2026 at 250 million tons, a substantial decrease of 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, aimed at preventing further declines in nickel prices [1] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association Secretary General stated that this move reflects a clear intention to support nickel prices [1] - Data indicates that the demand for nickel ore in Indonesia for 2026 is estimated to be at least 327 million wet tons, leading to a projected supply gap of 57 million tons if the 250 million tons quota is implemented [1] Group 2: Quota Approval History - Historical patterns show that Indonesia's government has frequently revised RKAB quota approvals, with actual issuance often exceeding initial plans, as seen in 2025 where the approved quota reached 364 million tons despite an initial plan of 298 million tons [2] - There is a cautious outlook regarding the actual implementation of the current quota reduction, with expectations that the final quota may range between 280 million to 320 million tons [2] - Short-term supply shortage expectations are likely to continue influencing market dynamics and intensifying capital speculation [2] Group 3: Cobalt Taxation Policy - Indonesia plans to officially release a revised nickel reference price calculation formula in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The potential taxation on cobalt could generate approximately $600 million annually for the Indonesian government, even with a minimal cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt taxation is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3] Group 4: Market Implications - Despite the increase in costs due to cobalt taxation, the actual net cost increase for integrated companies is expected to be limited, as they can offset costs through cobalt recovery [4] - The likelihood of the cobalt taxation policy being implemented is considered higher than that of the RKAB quota reduction, as historical execution of price policies has been more decisive [4] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP production capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of over 85%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [4] - The recent strong rebound in nickel prices is driven by market sentiment, but further significant price increases may be limited without additional policy developments [4]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the 2026 RKAB quota at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of 34% from the 379 million tons in 2025, aiming to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota and Market Dynamics - The 2026 RKAB quota is expected to create a supply gap of 57 million tons, as the estimated demand for nickel ore is at least 327 million wet tons [1] - Historical data shows that the Indonesian government has a tendency to approve higher RKAB quotas than initially planned, leading to a cautious outlook on the actual implementation of the quota reduction [2] - The anticipated RKAB quota for 2026 is expected to fall between 280 million to 320 million tons, influenced by short-term supply shortage expectations [2] Group 2: Nickel Pricing and Taxation Policies - A revised nickel reference price (HPM) calculation formula is set to be released in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The introduction of a royalty on cobalt could potentially increase government revenue by approximately $600 million annually, even with a low cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt royalties is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Projections - Recent policy expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions and cobalt taxation have led to a rapid rebound in nickel futures prices, with a notable V-shaped recovery observed [5] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a production increase of over 45%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [6] - The short-term price movements of nickel are expected to be driven by market sentiment, with limited upward potential unless more policies are implemented [6]

铜作为重要的工业金属，广泛应用于电力、建筑、交通和科技领域，其价格动态常被视为全球经济的晴 雨表。全球铜价持续走高，并创下历史新高，这一现象背后反映了深层次的市场变化。疫情之后，全球 经济复苏与能源转型加速，铜的供需格局发生显著转变。供给不足与需求激增的矛盾日益突出，金融市 场则放大了价格波动。 金融投资是铜价上涨的重要放大器。铜作为大宗商品，其金融属性日益凸显，投资者通过期货、ETF和 基金等工具参与市场，推高了价格。尤其是在今年美联储的降息周期持续以及其从缩表转变为再次扩表 的情况下，全球流动性再度宽松，对冲基金和投机资本大量涌入铜期货市场，未平仓合约量创历史新 高。这些投资行为基于对供需缺口的预期，往往放大基本面波动。 铜的期货价格常出现"超调"现象，即价格涨幅超过实物供需变化，这源于程序化交易和杠杆效应。金融 投资者关注铜的长期前景，提前布局导致价格提前反映未来需求。同时，铜作为通胀对冲工具，在宏观 经济不确定性下吸引避险资金流入。金融投资的介入虽提升了市场流动性，但也增加了价格泡沫风险， 需警惕回调压力。 总体而言，全球铜价创历史新高，是供给不足、需求爆发、短期失衡及金融投资共同作用的结果。供给 端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new silver export control policy in China, effective from January 1, 2026, will significantly impact the international silver market by reducing supply and altering the demand-supply dynamics, as silver is elevated to a strategic resource status [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - China's new silver export control policy marks the transition of silver from a "common commodity" to a "strategic material," aligning its management with that of rare earths [2]. - The policy introduces a strict "one application, one review" licensing system for silver exports, requiring companies to have an annual production of over 80 tons (40 tons for Western enterprises) and a three-year export track record to qualify [2]. - The approval process will scrutinize buyer backgrounds and compliance with usage, with controls expected to last until at least the end of 2027 [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2025, China's silver export volume accounted for 23.4% of global trade, approximately 9,126 tons, and the new policy is expected to reduce this by 4,500 to 5,000 tons annually [3]. - The global silver supply-demand gap reached 3,660 tons in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage, with projections for 2026 indicating a potential increase in the gap to 7,000 to 8,000 tons [3]. - Despite the ongoing supply gap, improvements in scale have been noted compared to previous years [3]. Group 3: Production and Costs - Global silver mine supply is projected to be around 31,788 tons in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with production increases in Mexico and Russia offset by declines in Peru and Indonesia [3]. - The World Silver Association forecasts that the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for silver will drop to $13 per ounce in the first half of 2025, the lowest since the first half of 2022, as lower operational costs offset rising mining fees and taxes [3]. - The potential for significant profits due to rising silver prices and lower operational costs may incentivize mining companies to increase production, supported by sound capital management and rich mineral reserves [3]. Group 4: Global Trends - Following the U.S. inclusion of silver in its critical minerals list in 2025, several countries, including India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia, have also recognized silver as a strategic asset [4]. - The outcome of the U.S. "232 investigation," expected by January 17, 2026, will influence resource import tariff policies, potentially intensifying global resource competition and exacerbating market shortages [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of China's new silver export control policy, which will take effect on January 1, 2026, marking silver as a strategic resource and upgrading its export management to a strict licensing system [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - China's new silver export control policy will transition from a quota system to a stringent "one application, one review" licensing system, requiring companies to have a minimum annual production of 80 tons (40 tons for Western enterprises) and a three-year export track record to apply for export qualifications [3]. - The policy aims to position silver as a "rare metal," emphasizing its strategic importance, with management criteria including buyer background and compliance of usage [3][5]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2025, China's silver export volume accounted for 23.4% of global trade, approximately 9,126 tons, and the new policy is expected to significantly reduce this volume, potentially decreasing global annual supply by 4,500 to 5,000 tons [4]. - The global silver supply-demand gap reached 3,660 tons in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage, with projections for 2026 indicating a further increase in the gap to 7,000 to 8,000 tons [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Despite the ongoing supply gap, improvements in scale are noted, with global silver mine supply expected to be around 31,788 tons in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024 [5]. - The World Silver Association forecasts that the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for silver will drop to $13 per ounce in the first half of 2025, the lowest since the first half of 2022, which may incentivize mining companies to increase production due to higher profit margins [5]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - Following the inclusion of silver in the critical mineral list in the U.S. in 2025, several countries, including India and the UAE, have also begun to classify silver as a strategic asset, which could further impact the already tight silver market [5]. - The results of the U.S. "232 investigation," expected by January 17, 2026, will influence resource import tariff policies, potentially exacerbating market tensions through increased resource competition and supply chain disruptions [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses a reported drone attack by Ukraine on Russian President Putin's residence, which Russia claims involved 91 drones, while Ukraine's President Zelensky denies the allegations, calling them fabricated [2][5]. - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that all incoming drones were destroyed and there were no casualties or damage reported, emphasizing that Russia will respond to Ukraine's actions [3]. - Lavrov indicated that Russia will reassess its negotiation stance with the U.S. regarding the Ukraine issue due to Ukraine's alleged actions [4]. Group 2 - The article highlights a significant drop in global precious metal futures prices, with COMEX gold futures down 4.45% to $4,350.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce [8]. - Other precious metals also experienced substantial declines, with spot silver prices falling nearly 9%, palladium down over 15%, and platinum down over 14% [8]. - The article notes that the A-share market in China has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a "nine consecutive days of gains," raising questions about whether this is a temporary rebound or an early indication of a spring market rally [13][14]. Group 3 - Analysts attribute the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index to clear industrial policy catalysts, particularly support for commercial rocket companies to meet the Sci-Tech Board listing standards, which has boosted the commercial aerospace sector [14]. - There is a noted improvement in market fundamentals, with increased investor risk appetite and trading sentiment, supported by liquidity and expectations of long-term capital inflows [14]. - The article mentions that while the index is rising, the number of declining stocks exceeds that of advancing stocks, indicating a concentrated flow of funds into specific sectors, particularly those with strong industrial logic [15].

Core Viewpoint - The new silver export control policy in China, effective from January 1, 2026, will significantly impact the international silver market by reducing supply and elevating silver's status to a strategic resource [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - China's new silver export control policy marks the transition of silver from an ordinary commodity to a strategic material, aligning its management with that of rare earths [3]. - The policy introduces a strict "one application, one review" licensing system for silver exports, requiring companies to have a minimum annual production of 80 tons (40 tons for western enterprises) and a three-year export track record to qualify [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the implementation of the new policy, silver exports are expected to decrease significantly, potentially reducing global annual supply by 4,500 to 5,000 tons [4]. - The global silver supply-demand gap reached 3,660 tons in 2025 and is projected to widen to 7,000 to 8,000 tons in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [4]. Group 3: Production and Costs - Global silver mine supply is estimated at approximately 31,788 tons in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with production increases in Mexico and Russia offset by declines in Peru and Indonesia [4]. - The World Silver Association forecasts that the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for silver will drop to $13 per ounce in the first half of 2025, the lowest since the first half of 2022, which may incentivize mining companies to increase production [4]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - Several countries, including the U.S., India, and others, have begun to classify silver as a critical mineral or strategic asset, which could further strain the already tight silver market [5]. - The outcome of the U.S. "Section 232 investigation," expected by January 17, 2026, may influence resource import tariffs, potentially exacerbating market tensions through increased competition for resources and trade disruptions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The copper futures price is expected to rise strongly and historically exceed 100,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, driven by macroeconomic policies, supply constraints, and structural shortages [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - China's macroeconomic policy for 2026 is set to focus on "stability while seeking progress," aiming to expand domestic demand and optimize structure, which will resonate with the copper market fundamentals [1] - The global macroeconomic environment is characterized as "stable but fragile," with uncertainties from policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and protectionism affecting copper prices [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift its policy focus and begin a rate-cutting cycle in September 2025, which will support copper prices through a weaker dollar [2] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The global copper supply faces fundamental challenges due to hard resource constraints, with limited new discoveries since 2015 and a long lead time for new projects [3] - The average grade of global copper mines has declined from 0.68% in 2001 to 0.45% in 2023, leading to increased mining costs and reduced efficiency [3] - Supply chain disruptions in 2025, including power outages and natural disasters, have significantly impacted copper production, exacerbated by geopolitical risks and policy changes in key producing countries [3] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The copper concentrate processing fees have sharply declined, marking the industry’s entry into a "zero processing fee era," with significant implications for profitability [4] - Despite the profit squeeze, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11.76% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, supported by long-term contracts and favorable prices for by-products [4] - The industry is undergoing a supply-side reform, shifting focus from expansion to resource security and reasonable profits, driven by policy constraints and industry self-discipline [5] Group 4: Import Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased by 8.12% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the second half of the year [6] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo has surpassed Chile as China's largest supplier of electrolytic copper, driven by increased imports of cost-effective "non-registered" brand copper [6] Group 5: Demand Drivers - Investment in the power sector is shifting towards grid upgrades, with significant investments expected to support copper demand, particularly in the context of energy transition [7] - The automotive industry is experiencing strong growth, especially in the electric vehicle segment, which has a higher copper usage per vehicle, driving marginal demand for copper [7] - Copper is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource essential for global energy transition and AI infrastructure, enhancing its long-term price outlook [8]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - The monetary policy will utilize various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, while ensuring ample liquidity and effective transmission of monetary policy [1] - The expectation for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has increased, but significant downward pressure on the interest rate center is unlikely due to the alignment with fiscal debt issuance [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's economy is expected to show steady progress, with marginal improvements in prices and supply-demand relationships in certain industries [2] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted by improved conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises in foreign trade, as well as high growth rates in industrial added value and profits in sectors like electronics, automotive, and transportation equipment [2] - The global liquidity remains loose, and the logic of global capital reallocation has not changed, indicating that the bond market is under pressure, while the supportive stance of monetary policy limits the upward space for interest rates [2]