Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in platinum and palladium futures prices is seen as a correction following a previous rapid increase, with significant profit-taking pressure from long positions [3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 31, platinum futures (main contract 2606) fell by 10.25% to 538 CNY per gram, while palladium futures (main contract 2606) dropped by 9.6% to 405.7 CNY per gram, returning to the price range seen on their listing day [2]. - NYMEX platinum futures approached 2007 USD per ounce, and NYMEX palladium futures neared 1556 USD per ounce [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the price drop to a lack of new bullish drivers, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach amid sufficient expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - The driving factors for platinum and palladium prices have shifted from macroeconomic narratives to liquidity and physical shortages [3]. - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of interest rate cuts, which may weaken expectations for monetary easing [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that platinum's financial attributes provide a hedge against inflation, with a significant supply gap in the industrial sector, indicating potential price increases in the medium to long term [3][4]. - Palladium's fundamentals appear weaker, with ongoing investigations into unrefined palladium imports from Russia potentially tightening supply temporarily, but overall fundamentals may exert downward pressure on prices in the long run [4][5].

项目建成后，预计每年可生产面粉300吨、加工面食产品350吨。值得一提的是，合作社将每年免费为本 村"幸福食堂"供应馒头，切实解决39名75周岁以上老人的日常就餐问题，实现经济效益与社会效益的双 赢。 未来，港信期货将继续以专业之力助力乡村特色产业发展，推动更多有温度、有特色的乡村品牌走向更 广阔的市场，在乡村振兴的道路上贡献坚实的金融力量。 五莲县于里镇于家官庄村近日迎来乡村振兴路上的又一份暖心支持——港信期货再次捐赠10万元，用于 村党支部领办的面食加工合作社项目建设。这已是港信期货第二年向该合作社提供帮扶，累计捐赠达20 万元，持续助力村庄特色产业发展。 为拓宽村民致富渠道，于家官庄村党支部立足本地资源，牵头成立面食加工合作社，重点发展石磨面 粉、手工馍馍等农副产品加工与销售。此次捐赠资金将主要用于购买加工设备、采购粮食原材料以及门 店装饰等方面，助力合作社实现标准化、规模化生产。目前，本地电商团队已对"于家馍馍"进行包装升 级，，未来将通过"线下门店+线上电商"双渠道同步销售，进一步打开市场。 ...

近一个月是见证历史的时刻。在继黄金、白银持续加速创出新高后，铜价也在创出历史新高后持续刷新 纪录。截止到2025年12月29日，沪铜一度上涨至10万元每吨之上，再次刷新投资者认知。宏观面上美国 失业率上升与通胀超预期回落等因素叠加，美元指数维持弱势提振期价。基本面矿端紧缺短期内无法缓 解，并传导到精炼铜冶炼环节，产量增速自2025年9月已开始下滑。需求面AI刺激电网更新和投入，成 为主要贡献，铜价上涨正当时。 铜价长期涨跌与铜精矿的扩产周期密切相关，具体来说，一是关注铜矿的绝对高低；二是关注铜矿供应 增速的拐点，铜矿增速由升转降是利多，由降转升是利空。 2025年铜矿干扰此起彼伏。如智利El Teniente、刚果金的Kamoa-Kakula、印度尼西亚Grasberg、中国内 蒙古矿业、加拿大Snow Lake、智利QB等铜矿的生产中断均带来不同程度的负面影响。 SMM将2025年全年新增铜精矿供应由63.8万吨连续下调两次，新一次将2025年增量减至-18万吨，主要 原因是各大矿山干扰率的提升。相应的铜精矿产量增速，年初3.25%下调至0.995%后略下调至负值。总 量上看，铜精矿在本轮2017-2025 ...

12月制造业生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，创2024年4月以来新高。2025 年，我国经济在宏观经济政策发力以及国内经济韧性显现等积极因素的支撑下，运行态势整体稳定，制 造业采购经理指数全年均值为49.6%，与2024年全年均值基本持平。预计2026年，在多个积极因素联动 推进下，制造业有望实现稳中有增。 12月份制造业新订单指数为50.8%，较上月上升1.6个百分点。需求端释放以及政策预期向好带动制造业 企业生产活动较好扩张，生产指数为51.7%，较上月上升1.7个百分点。制造业除了规模平稳扩张外，结 构方面也呈现积极变化。高技术制造业采购经理指数为52.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，扩张势头明显 加快。消费品制造业采购经理指数为50.4%，较上月上升1个百分点。 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会今天(31日)发布12月份中国制造业采购经理指数。12月份中国制造 业采购经理指数为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，指数升至扩张区间，显示制造业回升向好。 ...

据新华社电 国家发展改革委、财政部印发的《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策 的通知》30日对外发布，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。2026年"两新"政策 主要做了3个方面优化。 一是优化支持范围。设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备更新，在安全领域增加消防救援、检验检测设备更新，在消费基础设施领域增加商业综合 体、购物中心、百货店、大型超市等线下消费商业设施的设备更新。消费品以旧换新方面，进一步集中 资源，着力提升覆盖人群广、带动效应强的重点消费品"得补率"。继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更 新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类 产品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品购新补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手 表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）。 通知要求，国家发展改革委发挥"两新"部际联席会议制度牵头部门作用，会同财政部安排超长期特别国 债资金实施"两新"政策，加强统筹协调和跟踪调度。 二是优化补贴标准。设备更新方面，将住宅老 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in precious metal prices is attributed to a technical correction following a strong prior rally, compounded by multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical negative factors, particularly during the low liquidity period of the Christmas holidays in Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 30, domestic precious metal futures prices collectively fell, with the main gold contract down 3.11% and the main silver contract down 3.96%, while platinum and palladium futures hit their daily limit down [1] - The sharp decline in precious metal prices is seen as a correction of previous over-expectations regarding U.S. fiscal and monetary policies [2] - Platinum prices surged over 30% in the previous week, leading to significant profit-taking and increased volatility in the short term [2] Group 2: Market Influences - The expectation of a new Federal Reserve chair aligning with President Trump's fiscal policies is influencing market sentiment, with potential for accelerated interest rate cuts [4] - Global central banks are reducing U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves, which directly supports higher precious metal prices [4] - The industrial demand for silver remains strong due to its support from the photovoltaic industry, while platinum and palladium face declining demand from the automotive sector [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent price corrections, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, driven by expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair and the pace of interest rate cuts will be critical factors to monitor [4] - The introduction of new regulations in India regarding silver collateral may impact international silver supply dynamics in the first quarter of the following year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply expansion cycle, with production growth significantly outpacing demand, leading to concerns about supply contraction and rising costs, particularly influenced by policy changes in Indonesia [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have recently declined, reaching a new low since 2021 in late October, while other metals like copper and aluminum have seen price increases, indicating a divergence in the market [1]. - The overall nickel market is experiencing a significant increase in production, with domestic output expected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.34% [2]. - Global visible nickel inventories have surpassed 310,000 tons, with an increase of over 100,000 tons throughout the year, indicating high inventory levels [2]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Pressure - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost of purchasing raw materials and some integrated processes, leading to a lack of strong cost support at current price levels [2]. - The lowest production costs in the industry continue to decline, anchoring market prices to these lower levels amid an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia, the largest global supplier of nickel, has indicated potential significant changes in mining quotas and taxation that could impact future supply [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has reported a proposed reduction in the mining output target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Proposed adjustments to pricing and tax rules in Indonesia could increase mining costs, as cobalt and other by-products may be treated as independent commodities subject to royalties [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply contraction from Indonesia, which could lead to a rapid price rebound based on rising cost expectations [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further declines in nickel prices appears limited, with a preliminary establishment of a phase bottom, heavily reliant on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and tax policy implementations [4].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the global mining capacity entering an expansion cycle and China's port iron ore inventory reaching historical highs, iron ore futures prices remain resilient at high levels, indicating a divergence between long-term expectations and short-term realities [1] Inventory Levels - Although the total port iron ore inventory is at a historical high, the inventory structure is severely differentiated, leading to a "loose total, tight structure" scenario [2] - The differentiation in varieties exacerbates structural contradictions, with Brazilian ore inventory being high while Australian ore inventory is generally low, particularly for certain grades like PB powder, which is at a low level [2] - Steel mills are currently shifting towards purchasing lower-grade Australian ore due to profit fluctuations, which has led to a structural supply shortage and sustained increases in spot prices [2] - The low inventory levels at steel mills reinforce the demand for replenishment, providing solid short-term buying support for iron ore prices [2] Mining Profits - Iron ore, as a crucial industrial raw material, follows the logic of "demand determines direction, supply determines elasticity" [3] - China's iron ore demand remains strong, with cumulative pig iron production increasing by approximately 24.5 million tons year-on-year, leading to an estimated increase in iron ore demand of about 39.2 million tons [3] - The global iron ore supply is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with four major mining companies controlling nearly half of the production and over 70% of the trade volume [3] - This asymmetric structure allows mining companies to maintain high profits even during industry downturns, contributing to the long-term price resilience of iron ore [3] Steel Mill Replenishment - The specific participant structure in the futures market further solidifies the strong price trend of iron ore, with foreign institutions holding significant long positions that influence market sentiment and price movements [4] - The persistent backwardation in iron ore futures creates an inherent attractiveness for long positions, providing stable support for prices [4] - Historical trends indicate that significant price declines in iron ore are typically driven by demand contractions rather than supply increases, which are often fully priced in by the market [4] Overall Market Dynamics - Supply growth is a long-term slow variable with limited short-term impact on iron ore prices; the main contradictions currently lie in demand and inventory structure [5] - In the short term, due to the current structural contradictions in inventory and the seasonal replenishment phase for steel mills, there is still potential for slight price increases [5] - However, as supply continues to increase and replenishment ends, along with the current low profitability of steel mills, iron ore may face downward pressure if production recovery in Q1 next year does not meet expectations [5] Future Focus - Two key variables to monitor are the changes in domestic steel mill production rhythms and the actual production and shipping progress of the West Mangdu project, which could be critical drivers in breaking the current price stalemate [6]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a strong rally, with the main contract in Zhengzhou breaking through key resistance levels, showing a nearly 1,000 yuan per ton increase since December, significantly outperforming U.S. cotton and becoming a focal point in the commodity market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase in Zheng cotton is driven by strong expectations of reduced cotton production in the new year, which has been gradually confirmed by recent developments [2] - The Xinjiang Cotton Association indicated that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may face structural reductions in 2026, which is expected to influence the domestic cotton supply landscape long-term [2] - The current supply-demand balance in the cotton market is tight, with a notable decrease in import ratios and low carryover stocks, maintaining a robust long-term fundamental outlook [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - The resilience of demand in the cotton market is a significant driver of the current price trend, supported by retail sales data and operational rates of midstream textile enterprises [3] - In November, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 154.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating stable demand in the cotton textile industry [3] Group 3: Price Pressures and Market Sentiment - The market is characterized by a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with rising cotton prices exceeding processing costs for ginning factories, leading to some hedging pressure [4] - The seasonal off-peak period is affecting downstream cotton yarn prices, which are struggling to keep pace with rising cotton prices, potentially impacting profit margins for yarn manufacturers [4] - The price disparity between Zheng cotton and U.S. cotton is widening, with U.S. cotton prices remaining stagnant due to a lack of sufficient drivers, although there are concerns about indirect impacts from imported cotton yarn on domestic consumption [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The cotton import volume remains at historical lows, with a 67.5% year-on-year decrease expected for the 2024/2025 season, which is unlikely to alter the domestic supply structure significantly [5] - Short-term cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, driven by a combination of strong expectations and realities, reducing the likelihood of a shift to bearish sentiment [5] - The cotton subsidy policy is increasingly favoring high-quality cotton, with expectations for adjustments in the target price subsidy policy in 2026, which could further support cotton prices [5] - Overall, short-term market optimism is likely to persist, with medium to long-term projections indicating potential upward price movement supported by supply reduction expectations and resilient demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash industry is expected to continue its bearish trend in 2025 and 2026, characterized by high supply, high inventory, and low valuations, with prices likely to decline further due to weak demand and high inventory pressure [1][2]. Supply Pressure - The soda ash industry experienced high profitability from 2021 to 2023, with profits reaching 2000 yuan/ton, leading to increased operating rates and new capacity investments. However, this has resulted in a rapid transition to a bearish market [2]. - In 2025, domestic soda ash production capacity is expected to increase by 5.9 million tons, a growth rate of approximately 15%, significantly higher than in 2024. From 2023 to 2025, nearly 14 million tons of new capacity will be added, representing a cumulative increase of about 40% [2]. - For 2026, new capacity investments are expected to decrease significantly, with only a few projects coming online, which will have limited impact on supply during the year [2][3]. Demand Trends - Domestic soda ash demand is projected to decline for the first time in five years in 2025, with a decrease of approximately 90,000 tons to 35.36 million tons, a decline of about 0.3% [4]. - In 2026, total soda ash demand is expected to remain stable, with light soda demand slightly increasing and heavy soda demand slightly decreasing. The increase in light soda demand is primarily driven by the growth in lithium carbonate production [5]. - Heavy soda demand is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2026, with a projected reduction of about 400,000 tons due to pressures in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [6]. Export Dynamics - In 2025, domestic soda ash exports surged while imports dropped significantly, with exports increasing by 88.8% to 1.961 million tons and imports falling by 97.7% to 22,000 tons [7]. - The average export price for soda ash was approximately 1,331 yuan/ton, while the import price was around 1,819 yuan/ton, leading to a near-zero import volume due to price differentials [7]. - The soda ash export volume is expected to reach historical highs in 2026, with projections of 2.19 million tons, driven by increased demand from Southeast Asia and Africa [8].