SHMET 网讯： 征稿(作者：弘业期货 张天骜）--在经过长期的博弈和多轮谈判后，目前关税问题仍未有明显进展。中 美临时保持10%关税至8月10日，而美国对其他国家保持10%临时关税至7月9日。未来关税问题仍是影 响全球经济增长的最主要因素，存在较大的不确定性。 一、行情回顾 （一）一季度有色金属走势偏强 2025年国际宏观环境风云突变，大宗商品市场波动较大。一季度市场受到美联储降息预期和中国经济温 和反弹的支撑，市场整体走势偏强。汇率方面，美元持续大跌，人民币小幅上涨。在外部形势恶化的压 力下，中国保持政策定力。在并未实施大规模经济刺激的情况下，经济数据稳中有升，给市场带来的更 好的预期。一季度，国内工业品和农产品多数震荡走高。 （二）关税影响，4月初有色金属大跌后持续反弹 进入4月后，美国对等关税政策对市场造成巨大冲击，市场情绪急转直下。避险情绪推动，工业品全面 暴跌，农产品大涨。但很快美国宣布将对等关税推迟90日执行，同时与各国逐步展开贸易谈判，市场情 绪明显好转。因此，4月初大跌后，有色金属震荡反弹，目前回到4月初价格附近。 二、宏观基本面情况 （一）关税仍是最大变数 4月3日，美国公布对等关税计划 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines, leading to a significant increase in tin prices, which reached a nearly one-month high with a rise of 1.95% to 267,270 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic tin concentrate processing fees have dropped to historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting enterprises, resulting in squeezed profit margins and prompting some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - The downstream electronics industry is entering a low season, and with current high tin prices, there is a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, contributing to weak consumption during the off-peak season [1] Group 2 - In May, China's tin ore imports increased month-on-month, with significant contributions from Africa, although the actual output from Myanmar remains low due to slow recovery, with only a few dozen tons exported from Wa State [1] - The import window for tin ingots opened briefly in late April to early May but began to close after mid-May, with some traders relying on previously locked-in prices for shipments [2] - The market outlook suggests that while supply constraints exist due to raw material shortages in Yunnan and reduced scrap tin recovery in Jiangxi, the demand side is showing significant reductions, leading to expectations of a slight oversupply and pressure on tin prices [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $43.5, or 0.45%, closing at $9,712.5 per ton, supported by a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which improved overall market sentiment [1] - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month copper fell significantly from $280 per ton to $87.5 per ton, marking the largest drop since November 2021 [3] - Analysts noted that copper prices have remained stable due to concerns over global economic growth, limited copper concentrate supply, and decreasing LME registered warehouse inventories [3] Group 2 - Other metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum down by $15.5, or 0.6%, closing at $2,563.5 per ton, while zinc rose by $23, or 0.86%, closing at $2,704.5 per ton [4] - Three-month tin saw a significant increase of $874, or 2.7%, closing at $33,193.0 per ton, reaching its highest point since April 8 [4] - Nickel prices increased by $154, or 1.03%, closing at $15,074.0 per ton, reflecting a general upward trend in certain metals despite the geopolitical risks [4]

Group 1 - LME and SHFE copper prices experienced slight increases due to a weaker dollar and a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with LME three-month copper rising by 0.34% to $9,702 per ton and SHFE August copper contract increasing by 0.47% to ¥78,810 per ton [1] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is seen as a potential stabilizing factor, although analysts caution that it may not be a final resolution, and the market is awaiting clearer signals [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts, with the market estimating a 18% chance of a rate cut in July, contributing to the dollar's weakness and making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to buyers using other currencies [1] Group 2 - Lead smelters have increased the supply of second-hand electric bicycle batteries in preparation for rising summer lead demand, which has positively impacted primary lead prices [2] - Electric bicycles typically require more frequent battery replacements during summer due to reduced battery lifespan in hot weather [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum down by 0.47% to $2,567 per ton, while three-month tin, zinc, and nickel saw increases of 0.68%, 0.73%, and 0.64% respectively [3]

Supply Overview - In April 2025, global zinc mine production reached 1.0722 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4% [1] - From January to April 2025, global zinc mine production totaled 4.0406 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Major overseas mines reported varying production levels in Q1, with total output from these mines amounting to 869,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.5% [1][2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in Q1 saw a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [1] Demand Overview - In April, global zinc consumption was 1.1302 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [3] - The downstream consumption index for zinc fell to 56.36% in May, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in demand [3] - The PMI for various downstream industries, including galvanizing and die-casting, showed values below 50, indicating contraction in these sectors [3] Price and Profitability Insights - The main zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange faced pressure at the 23,000 yuan/ton level, with a recent low of 21,660 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic zinc concentrate producers are experiencing significant losses, with import losses reaching up to -572 yuan/ton, leading to a closure of import windows [1][2] - Despite the losses, domestic production profits remain substantial, estimated between 3,900 to 4,600 yuan/ton [1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of June 24, LME zinc inventories decreased by 49% year-on-year to 123,000 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 18% [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's zinc warehouse receipts fell by 91% year-on-year to 7,471 tons, indicating a tightening supply [4] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory stood at 58,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7% [4] Future Outlook - The combination of increased global zinc concentrate supply and seasonal demand weakness is expected to suppress zinc prices [5] - However, refining zinc prices may find support from smelting costs, import costs, and ongoing inventory reductions [5] - Potential positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations and a gradual recovery from the consumption off-season could lead to a rebound in zinc prices [5]

Group 1 - The global zinc market is experiencing downward pressure due to increased zinc ore production and a generally bearish outlook on zinc prices, despite low social inventory and some price rebounds around the 21600 level [1] - The trade dispute between the US and other countries has seen a temporary easing, which has improved market sentiment, but the potential impact of tariffs on inflation and the US economy remains a concern [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about zinc supply disruptions, particularly from Iran, which exports a small percentage of zinc to China [2] Group 2 - Zinc ore processing fees are rebounding, with significant increases in domestic zinc ore supply expected in June due to improved mining conditions and increased imports [3][4] - Domestic zinc smelting plants are showing renewed production enthusiasm as processing fees rise, with expectations of a notable increase in refined zinc output in June and July [4] - Despite weak seasonal demand and some decline in downstream operations, low inventory levels are providing support for zinc prices [5] Group 3 - The overall macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with global trade dynamics still in flux and domestic policies needing to provide more support [6] - The combination of increased zinc ore supply and uncertain downstream demand suggests that zinc prices will continue to face downward pressure, although there are vulnerabilities in the supply chain that could affect this trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lead prices is primarily driven by supply constraints and expectations of improved consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [1][2][3][4]. Supply Side Analysis - Supply constraints are a major factor in the recent strength of lead prices, with slow recovery in recycled lead production due to industry losses and raw material shortages [1][2][3]. - The original lead smelting sector is experiencing regular maintenance, which has led to a decrease in inventory levels and supports price increases [4][7]. - The tight supply of waste batteries continues to exert upward pressure on prices, while the profitability of recycled lead remains under pressure, leading to reduced production [4][8]. Demand Side Analysis - The downstream lead-acid battery industry is transitioning from a low-demand season to a peak season, with some companies planning to increase production in anticipation of higher demand [5][6]. - Current consumption in the lead-acid battery market is still subdued, but there are expectations for improvement as summer approaches and replacement demand increases [6][8]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with battery manufacturers considering price adjustments based on current high lead prices, but actual demand recovery remains to be seen [6][7]. Inventory Dynamics - Domestic lead inventory levels have not shown significant accumulation, providing support for lead prices, with expectations of improved consumption in the third quarter [5][8]. - The inventory situation is influenced by supply-side reductions, with recycled lead production cuts leading to lower inventory levels compared to previous years [8][9]. - The market is currently in a state of equilibrium, with supply constraints preventing significant inventory build-up despite weak demand [7][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [1][3] - On June 24, LME three-month copper rose by $1.50, or 0.02%, closing at $9,669.00 per ton, with an intraday high of $9,760.50 [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant outflow of copper from LME registered warehouses, with a 65% reduction in inventory since mid-February, now at 94,675 tons, the lowest since August 2023 [3] Group 2 - The current copper market is characterized by tight supply, as evidenced by the premium of $151 per ton for spot copper contracts over three-month copper, down from $280 the previous day [3] - The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper market shortage of 38,000 tons in April, contrasting with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March [3] - Other metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum down by $9.50, or 0.37%, while lead increased by $16, or 0.8% [2][4]

Santa Cruz是该公司最先进的项目，将有助于满足绿色能源转型对铜日益增长的需求。铜是制造电线的 一种关键必需矿物。 6月23日（周一），对艾芬豪电气（Ivanhoe Electric）在亚利桑那州Santa Cruz铜矿项目的一项新的初步 可行性研究（PFS）显示，该项目的初始成本为12.4亿美元，税后净现值（NPV）为14亿美元。 这座地下矿场在23年的寿命中，前15年期间每年可生产7.2万吨铜阴极，在每磅4.25美元的基本情况下， 内部收益率（IRR）为20%，艾芬豪周一表示。按照目前Comex高品位铜价每磅4.83美元计算，NPV升 至19亿美元，IRR升至24%。 艾芬豪电气执行主席Robert Friedland在一份新闻稿中表示："Santa Cruz将开采美国最大的高品位氧化铜 矿体……这些矿体将由新一代熟练的高薪美国工人现场加工。" "Santa Cruz将生产纯度为99.99%的LME A级铜阴极产品，从我们的矿门口就可以立即销售给美国工业 界。" 该公司表示，矿山建设可能在明年上半年开始，2028年开始生产第一批铜阴极，2029年全面投产。PFS 设想该矿将采用堆浸处理。 每吨铜的生 ...