Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structure and decision-making mechanisms of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing its independence and the implications of political interference, particularly in the context of President Trump's actions and statements regarding the Fed [2][8]. Group 1: Structure of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is an independent entity of the federal government, supervised by Congress, and consists of a central management board and 12 regional reserve banks [2][12]. - The Federal Reserve has three core entities: the Board of Governors, 12 Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [13][24]. Group 2: Functions of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve performs five main functions: executing monetary policy, promoting financial system stability, supervising financial institutions, ensuring the efficiency of payment systems, and protecting consumers [12][19]. Group 3: Decision-Making Mechanisms - The Board of Governors operates on a simple majority voting system, with some actions requiring an absolute majority [4][26]. - The FOMC consists of 12 members and also operates on a simple majority basis for decision-making [27][30]. Group 4: Influence of the Federal Reserve Chair - The Federal Reserve Chair has significant actual influence beyond their nominal voting power, impacting discussions, market expectations, and the Fed's credibility [5][29]. - The Chair's leadership role is crucial in coordinating consensus among members regarding monetary policy [29]. Group 5: Historical Context of Dissenting Votes - Dissenting votes in FOMC meetings are common, with 36% of meetings since 1936 featuring opposition [7][30]. - The reasons for dissent often relate to the macroeconomic environment rather than the Chair's leadership or policy preferences [6][31]. Group 6: Political Interference and Independence - Recent actions by President Trump, including attempts to influence Fed appointments and policies, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [8][36]. - The potential dismissal of Fed officials could undermine the institution's independence, with historical precedent indicating that such actions have never occurred [9][37].

Core Viewpoint - The necessity for policy reinforcement has increased due to declining economic indicators in August, particularly in demand and supply metrics, suggesting a potential need for counter-cyclical policy measures [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Trigger Conditions - Historical data indicates that policy reinforcement has been triggered four times since 2007 when cyclical demand faced downward pressure, with August's cyclical demand growth dropping to 2.2%, significantly below the nominal GDP growth of Q2 [4][11]. - The composite PMI output index has also shown five instances of policy reinforcement when it reached local lows, with the average for July and August at 50.3%. A further decline in September could indicate a similar need for policy action [4][11]. Group 2: Direction of Policy Reinforcement - Given the current low price levels, policy reinforcement should focus on stimulating terminal demand rather than increasing future industrial supply. Potential directions include promoting service consumption and pre-positioning major projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][13]. - The construction sector's order growth has historically been better in the first three years of a five-year plan, suggesting that major projects from the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan could be advanced [5][17]. - Service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining, education, and healthcare, requires enhancement, as evidenced by declining growth rates in these areas [5][21]. Group 3: August Economic Data Overview - In August, supply-side growth slowed, with industrial output growth at 5.2% and service sector production index at 5.6%. The GDP growth for Q3 is projected around 4.8% [6][27]. - On the demand side, retail sales growth was 3.4%, down from 3.7%, while exports fell to 4.4% from 7.2%. Real estate sales area decreased by 10.6%, and fixed asset investment saw a decline of 7.1% [6][27][28]. - Price metrics showed a slight recovery in housing prices, with second-hand home prices down 5.5% year-on-year, and PPI at -2.9% while CPI was -0.4% [27][28]. Group 4: Employment and Consumption - The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends, while the consumption sector saw a slight recovery in dining growth to 2.1% after lower rates in previous months [30][31]. - Retail sales growth for durable goods, particularly in home appliances, decreased significantly, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer spending [31]. Group 5: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector showed a slight decline in the prosperity index, with sales area down 10.6% year-on-year and investment growth at -19.9% [33][34]. - Funding sources for real estate also saw a decline, with domestic loans showing a slight increase, but personal mortgage loans dropped significantly [34]. Group 6: Industrial Growth Insights - Industrial output growth was recorded at 5.2%, with high-tech manufacturing showing strong performance, particularly in sectors like aircraft manufacturing and biopharmaceuticals [39][40]. - The overall manufacturing sector's growth was 5.7%, with consumer goods manufacturing expected to remain weak [40][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the recent policy directions from various Chinese government departments, emphasizing the focus on domestic economic growth, consumer spending, and investment in key sectors to stabilize and enhance the economy. Policy Framework - **Policy Orientation**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation and improving policy tools for economic development [2][12]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The Ministry of Finance indicates ample room for fiscal policy adjustments, with a focus on debt resolution and proactive measures for local government debt management [2][20]. - **Consumer Spending**: Measures to boost service consumption and automotive sales are highlighted, including the removal of restrictive measures and support for vehicle trade-in programs [2][3][22]. Social Welfare - **Living Standards**: The NDRC plans to invest more in human capital and improve social welfare mechanisms, including minimum wage adjustments and healthcare reforms [3][13]. Investment Strategies - **Financial Tools**: The establishment of new policy-oriented financial instruments is prioritized, alongside efforts to clear corporate debts and support major infrastructure projects [3][20]. - **Private Investment**: The government encourages private capital to invest in new productivity sectors and infrastructure, with measures to enhance bidding processes and central budget support [3][15]. Industry-Specific Initiatives - **Automotive Sector**: The automotive industry is set to see a targeted increase in sales, with a goal of approximately 32.3 million vehicles sold in 2025, including a significant rise in electric vehicle sales [22]. - **Energy Sector**: The power equipment industry aims for a stable growth rate of around 6% annually, with a focus on enhancing supply and demand dynamics [21]. International Trade and Relations - **US-China Trade Talks**: Upcoming discussions between Chinese officials and US representatives will address trade tariffs and export controls, indicating ongoing tensions in international trade relations [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2020, productive credit (excluding real estate and infrastructure loans) has been continuously increasing, while terminal demand credit (related to real estate and infrastructure) has been declining, indicating that credit support is more reflected on the supply side rather than the demand side [2][4][5] Group 1: Productive Credit Needs to Decline - A clear definition is established: terminal demand credit includes infrastructure loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans, while productive credit includes business loans and non-real estate infrastructure loans [4][13] - Data observation shows that since 2020, the growth of productive credit has significantly outpaced that of terminal demand credit, with productive credit increasing by 4.8 trillion compared to a decrease of 4.9 trillion in terminal demand credit from 2019 to 2024 [4][13] - The excessive increase in productive credit may exacerbate supply-demand contradictions, where productive investment serves as both current demand and future supply [4][15] Group 2: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index as of September 7, 2025, is at 6.93%, up 0.17 points from the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [6][17] - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement shipment rates have improved compared to last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 34.9%, up 9% year-on-year [7][26] - Real estate sales have shown a significant increase, with a 16.6% year-on-year growth in residential sales in 67 cities during the first five days of September [8][24] Group 3: Price Trends - Prices of gold, oil, and copper have risen, with COMEX gold at $3646.3 per ounce, up 1.3%, and LME copper at $10068 per ton, up 1.2% [8][44] - Domestic commodity prices have remained stable, while overseas prices have increased, indicating a divergence in price trends [8][44] Group 4: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on government bonds has shown an upward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8670%, reflecting a steepening yield curve [8][65] - The government has planned to issue new local government bonds amounting to 118.5 billion, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [8][49]

Core Viewpoint - The defeat of Argentina's ruling coalition in the Buenos Aires provincial elections on September 7 has led to significant turmoil in the financial markets, with the Argentine peso dropping nearly 6% against the US dollar on September 8, attracting global attention [2][10]. Group 1: Election Results and Economic Impact - The ruling coalition led by Javier Milei suffered a shocking defeat, with the Peronist party "Patria Fuerza" receiving 47% of the votes compared to Milei's party, which garnered only 34% [4][11]. - Despite achieving notable economic successes, such as reducing the CPI from over 200% to below 40% and achieving a fiscal surplus in Q1 2025, these accomplishments did not translate into electoral support due to the painful impacts of Milei's reforms on daily life [4][12][13]. Group 2: Market Performance - Following the election results, the Argentine financial market experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currency on September 8, with the MERVAL index plummeting over 10% to its lowest level since October 2024, and the price of sovereign bonds falling nearly 7 cents [5][15]. - The Argentine central bank intervened by selling dollars in the spot market and restarting overnight repurchase agreements to absorb market liquidity, which contradicted Milei's previous commitment to a free market and raised concerns about policy consistency [5][16]. Group 3: Market Perspectives - There is a divide among Wall Street institutions regarding the outlook for Argentina, with optimistic analysts betting on Milei's reform commitment and visible economic results overcoming political resistance, while cautious analysts warn that reforms lacking a solid governing foundation may struggle to continue [6][19]. - Optimistic institutions like JPMorgan and Bank of America maintain a "buy" rating on Argentine sovereign bonds, believing that Milei can adjust his political strategy despite the electoral setback [21]. - Conversely, Morgan Stanley has adopted a cautious stance, retracting its "positive" rating on Argentine assets and advising clients to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach due to political uncertainties stemming from corruption scandals and the election defeat [22].

Group 1 - The ongoing "deposit migration" indicates that the worst phase of the economic cycle has passed, as evidenced by the improvement in the enterprise-resident deposit gap and the proportion of new currency to M2 [4][14][15] - Chinese residents do not possess excess savings but rather defensive deposits, with the current deposit migration reflecting a structural change from "excessive defensive deposits" to "normal deposits" rather than a shift from savings to consumption [4][20][27] - The ability of deposit migration to stimulate the real economy hinges on converting savings into investment savings, which can influence corporate cash flow and long-term expectations [4][8][9] Group 2 - The relationship between corporate loans and economic conditions is not straightforward; the presence of corporate funds does not necessarily indicate a positive economic outlook, as loans are just one of many funding sources [5][30][31] - The current stock market presents a favorable configuration value due to clear market stabilization policies, which have reduced stock volatility and increased risk-adjusted returns [5][33] - The ongoing deposit migration is a key factor influencing non-bank liquidity, with the stock market's activity primarily dependent on changes in resident deposit migration [5][33] Group 3 - In August, the financial data showed a continued increase in non-bank deposits, while loans decreased, indicating a shift in the financial landscape [36][41][45] - The social financing scale in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, with the stock market financing showing a slight increase [41][42] - The overall M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8%, with new M1 growth at 6%, indicating a steady financial environment [45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and potential future movements of the RMB exchange rate, highlighting the similarities and differences with the 2018-2019 period, and emphasizes the importance of economic fundamentals in determining the exchange rate trajectory [4][5][9]. Historical Comparison - The current macroeconomic backdrop for RMB appreciation shares similarities with the period from November 2018 to June 2019, particularly in terms of improved expectations for US-China relations and the performance of RMB assets despite a lack of clear economic recovery signals [5]. - From November 2018 to June 2019, the RMB appreciated from 6.97 to around 6.7, while the current appreciation from the peak of 7.35 on April 9, 2025, has reached the 7.11-7.12 range, indicating a comparable magnitude of appreciation [5]. Current Special Factors - There is a significant backlog of unconverted foreign exchange, estimated at approximately $700-800 billion, which could amplify exchange rate fluctuations and create short-term market movements [7]. - The backlog is concentrated in two key exchange rate ranges: $400-500 billion in the 7.2-7.5 range and $200-300 billion in the 6.9-7.2 range, which may trigger a surge in conversions if the RMB appreciates beyond these levels [7][8]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that a trend of sustained RMB appreciation is unlikely without clear economic signals, as historical trends in 2017 and 2020 were supported by significant improvements in economic fundamentals, particularly PMI and corporate conversion rates [9][10]. - Even if the economic fundamentals improve, the initial stages of appreciation may be moderated by policy measures to prevent excessive volatility and capital inflows, which could complicate cross-border capital management [10][14]. - The current global trade environment necessitates a balanced approach to maintain stable trade relations with the US while expanding non-US trade, suggesting that a stable exchange rate may be the optimal strategy [14].

Core Insights - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% [2][3] - The PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a reduction from the previous month's 3.6% [2][3] Inflation Data Analysis - The significant drop in CPI was primarily due to high food prices from last year's extreme weather, weak seasonal food price increases, and falling oil prices [3][4] - The core CPI's increase to 1.5% from 0% at the beginning of the year marks the highest level since 2021, driven by improved durable goods prices [3][4][18] - Food prices showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, while energy prices saw a smaller decline of 3.1% [17][20] PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed, indicating a potential second round of recovery starting from August [3][30] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, ending an eight-month downward trend, with production materials showing a slight increase [30][31] - The coal and raw materials sectors experienced price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics influenced by anti-involution policies [31][33] Impact of the Photovoltaic Industry - Since early July, the photovoltaic industry has seen a price rebound of 25%, significantly impacting the PPI [10][13] - The photovoltaic sector's weight in the PPI is approximately 2.4%, and a doubling of its prices could increase the PPI by about 0.3% [6][14][15] Price Change Dynamics - The proportion of CPI items with price increases has decreased seasonally, while the number of PPI industries with price increases has risen [35][37] - The proportion of production materials with price increases has also declined, indicating a shift in market dynamics [39]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信 SuperSummerSnow） 事项 8 月，以美元计价中国出口同比 4.4% ，低于彭博一致预期 5% ， 7 月为 7.2% ；进口同比 1.3% ，低于彭博一致预期 3% ， 7 月为 4.1% 。 核心观点 1 、 8 月出口低于我们的预测，主要是我们计入了较高的非美增速预期，认为其能对冲对美出口下滑的影响，但非洲出口增速实际下降较快。 2 、 结合环比来看，非洲出口回落背后或确有增长动能的客观趋弱（ 6 月开始中国对非洲出口环比持续弱于过去十年同期均值， 8 月缺口有所扩大），而除美 国、欧盟、东盟、非洲以外的其他地区出口回落背后或受基数影响较大（ 8 月出口环比较历史同期均值相差无几）。但，受限于数据可得性，无法对非洲 8 月出 口作进一步拆解分析，后续其需求是否持续回落仍待进一步观察。 3 、后续出口展望： 观察几个全球和欧美的制造业（或者库存周期）的领先指标，或指向外需整体平稳，后续有望回暖，特别是四季度美国可能释放上行弹性 ( 图 6-7) 。在外需的支撑下，中国出口具备韧性 ...