报告摘要 下周即将公布的海外重点经济数据 美国： 4月耐用品订单初值（5/27），5月咨商局消费者信心指数（5/27），5月FOMC会议纪要 （5/29），4月份个人收入和支出数据（5/30），5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数和1年期通胀预期终值 （5/30）、4月批发库存环比初值（5/30）。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1）5月制造业PMI好于预期， 标普制造业PMI初值52.3，预期49.9，前值50.2；标普服务业PMI 初值52.3，预期51，前值50.8。 2）4月二手房销售低于预期，新房销售好于预期， 成屋销售折年数 400万套，预期410万套，前值402万套。新屋销售74.3万套，预期69.5万套，前值从72.4万套下修为67 万套。 3）4月咨商局经济领先指数符合预期 ，环比-1%，预期-1%，前值从-0.7%下修为-0.8%。 欧元区：1）5月制造业PMI初值小幅好于预期 ，欧元区制造业PMI初值49.4，预期49.2，前值49；服 务业PMI初值 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 2 ）出口：多数货量高频指标回落。 1 ）美国自中国进口大幅回落。 从海运进口提单数据来看， 5 月 前 21 天美国从中国进口同比大幅降至 -8% ， 4 月 30 天同比为 9.9% 。 2 ）中美之间直接贸易流量 降幅扩大 。截至 5 月 24 日的 15 天内，从中国发往美国载货集装箱船数量同比进一步降至 -37.5% ， 截至 4 月 30 日同比为 -23.1% 。 3 ）潜在转口： 截至 5 月 24 日当周，东盟主要国家港口停靠船舶 数量大幅回落，环比前一周 -6.3% ， 5 月 17 日当周环比为 1.6% 。 5 月前 24 天，东盟主要国家港口 船舶停靠数量同比降至 4.5% ， 4 月 30 天同比为 8.3% 。 3 ）土地溢价率明显回落。 截至 5 月 18 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 1.37% 。 4 月 28 日 -5 月 18 日 三周，百城土地溢价率平均为 5.5% ， 4 月为 9.69% 。 4 ）物价：煤炭、地产相关价格偏弱 。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that under pressure on the revenue side, the government may rely more on debt issuance this year, as tax revenue has decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and land sales revenue has dropped by 11.4% [2][11] - It suggests that the fiscal policy will likely require incremental debt to maintain its strength throughout the year, especially if there is no significant improvement in revenue [2][6] Group 1: Debt Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The government has accelerated debt issuance since the beginning of the year, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan compared to last year [5][12] - As of May 20, the known net financing of government debt reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year [5][12] - The article indicates that if the revenue side does not improve significantly, the government may need to increase its debt issuance to maintain fiscal strength [6][13] Group 2: Non-Deficit Debt and Investment Focus - In the second quarter, non-deficit debt is expected to accelerate, reflecting a marginal shift in fiscal support towards investment [8][22] - As of May 20, the net financing of non-deficit debt reached 2 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 36.5%, indicating a focus on investment projects [22][23] - The article highlights that the acceleration of non-deficit debt issuance may signal increased fiscal support for infrastructure and other investment projects [23][28] Group 3: Special Refinancing Bonds and Local Government Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has progressed rapidly, with a known progress rate of 77.8% as of May 20, indicating a focus on managing local government debt [28][29] - The article notes that local government hidden debts remain under strict control, with the central government expected to play a key role in increasing budgetary bonds and quasi-fiscal capital injections [29][31] - The emphasis is placed on the central government's commitment to not increasing hidden debts, reinforcing fiscal discipline [29][31] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - In April, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with tax revenue turning positive, particularly in the equipment manufacturing and technology sectors [31][33] - The article mentions that the expenditure progress for January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a notable increase in infrastructure spending in April [44][50] - The government’s focus on accelerating special bond issuance and enhancing fiscal support for projects is expected to continue, with a projected increase in government fund income [50][56]

点击关注【张瑜旬度纪要系列】 各位投资朋友好，本期旬度我们聚焦对当下投资框架的思考 —— 先否定一种常见框架，再阐述我们推荐的分析逻 辑。 一、什么是错的？预测出口指导投资，具有很大的脆弱性 首先，我们想否定的思路是 ：预测出口数据 → 推导宏观数据 → 预测企业盈利 → 投资决策。我们认为这一框架的地 基非常不扎实。主要原因在于出口数据预判难度极大，进而会大幅影响到对企业盈利与 GDP 的判断。基于历史经验 关系，出口误判 10 个百分点，可能将导致 PPI/ 工增 误判 2 个百分点左右。误判 PPI 2 个点可能会通过利润率渠道影 响企业利润 3-4 个百分点；误判工增 2 个百分点或导致 GDP 误判 0.4-0.5 个百分点。以 4 月出口数据为例，市场一致 预期为 0-2% ，我们在数据前瞻预计在 6% 左右，但实际增速达 8.1% ，市场误判将近 8 个百分点，由此可见，基于出 口数据预测的投资框架是非常脆弱的。 二、什么是合适的？关注美国可选消费行业状况 我们认为，判断出口的核心在于预测转港率 。从历史上看， 2018-2019 年我国对美出口转港率达六成，这导致虽然当 时关税对价格、利润形成 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 对于 4 月以来的经济情况，重点总结两方面的内容。 1 、经济的不变之处来自政策的"补"与出口的"抢" ，包括 4 个方面。投资端 1-4 月设备购置对全部投资增 长的贡献率为 64.5% ；消费端 4 月份家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类、通讯器材类、建 筑及装潢材料类商品零售额对社零的贡献率为 27.4% ；生产端 4 月装备制造业对全部规模以上工业生产增 长的贡献率达 55.9% 。贸易端 4 月贸易顺差增速为 33.6% ，略低于 1 季度，但依然处于偏高水平。 1 季 度，贸易顺差对 GDP 的贡献率为 39.5% 。 2 、经济的变化之处来自地产与制造业 。 对于地产，自去年 9 月政治局会议以来，最强的五个城市（ 70 大中城市内，以二手住宅价格上涨月数和幅度为标准）二手住宅量价动能有所趋缓。对于制造业，其内部 物价压力较大的原材料业（本轮 PPI 自 2022 年 5 月以来，原材料加工业下跌幅度较大），其投资增速快 速放缓， 1-4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" aims to achieve multiple objectives including tax reform, healthcare cuts, immigration enforcement, and defense enhancement, with significant implications for the economy and fiscal policy [2][4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. What is the "One Big Beautiful Bill"? - The bill, introduced on May 12, 2025, encompasses six main components: 1. **Tax Reform**: Permanently extends the 2017 tax reform, eliminates tips and overtime taxes, raises the standard deduction to $32,000, and expands the child tax credit to $2,500. 2. **Healthcare Reform**: Cuts Medicaid by $800 billion and introduces work requirements and eligibility reviews, potentially affecting 7.6 million insured individuals. 3. **Immigration Policy**: Allocates $46.5 billion for border wall construction and adds 18,000 enforcement personnel, aiming to deport 1 million illegal immigrants annually. 4. **Defense Budget**: Increases defense spending by $150 billion, focusing on missile defense and shipbuilding. 5. **Energy Policy**: Expands oil and gas extraction, reduces green energy subsidies, and sells public land to increase revenue. 6. **Education and Welfare**: Reforms student loans and cuts food stamp benefits [4][12][14]. 2. Economic Impact of the Bill - According to the Tax Foundation, the bill could result in approximately $3.3 trillion in tax cuts, an increase of about $150 billion in defense spending, and a reduction of $1.13 trillion in Medicaid and student loan expenditures. This is expected to lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.6% and an increase in the deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [5][14][15]. 3. Current Progress of the Bill - As of May 18, 2025, the bill is still under review in the House committee and has not yet reached a full House vote or Senate consideration. It faced internal divisions within the Republican Party, with a recent vote resulting in a 16-21 rejection in the House Budget Committee. The House Speaker plans to push for passage before Memorial Day, but disputes over Medicaid cuts and deficit concerns create uncertainty [6][16][17]. 4. Key Timeframes for the Bill - Important upcoming dates include: 1. **May 18, 2025**: The Budget Committee will reconvene to attempt to pass the bill. 2. **End of May 2025**: The House aims to pass the bill before Memorial Day; failure may lead to delays or splitting the bill. 3. **Mid-June 2025**: If not passed by the end of May, the House may reschedule a full vote or consider splitting the bill. 4. **July 4, 2025**: The ultimate goal is to pass the bill by Independence Day, reflecting its political significance [7][18][19]. 5. Perspectives from Foreign Institutions - Foreign institutions express cautious optimism about the bill, albeit with significant uncertainties. UBS anticipates the bill may pass by August or September, favoring the mid-section of the yield curve. JPMorgan Chase believes the proposed measures could offset about two-thirds of the negative impacts from tariffs, with a focus on financial stocks as a key investment area [8][20][21].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 本周主要关注中美日内瓦会谈，中美互相大幅削减关税。 1 、会谈取得"实质性进展"： 中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中 方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共 识，并取得实质性进展。 2 、会谈主要成果 ： 5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布。双方同意大幅降低双边关 税水平，美方取消共计 91% 的加征关税，中方相应取消 91% 的反制关税；美方暂停实施 24% 的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24% 的反制关税。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制 措施。双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 本周，其他值得关注的政策。 （一）防腐倡廉相关工作继续推进。 1 ） 5 月 15 日， 《求是》杂志发表总书记重要文章《锲而不舍 落实中央八项规定精神，以优良党风引领社风民风》，文章指出，"制定实施中央八项规定……必须常 抓不懈、久久 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、基建：石油沥青装置开工率上升。 5 月第二周，石油沥青装置开工率为 34.4% ，第一周为 28.8% ； 4 月 3 日 -4 月 30 日四周，平均为 28.8% 。 2 、外贸：潜在转口或有所提升。 截至 5 月 15 日的一周内，东盟主要国家港口停靠船舶数量有所反 弹，环比 5 月第一周 +0.8% ，上一周环比 +0.9% 。 景气向下 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数：环比走弱，但仍在 5% 以上。 截至 5 月 11 日，该指数为 5.16% ，环比 5 月 4 日的 7.73% 下行 2.58% 。 4 月以来指数上行的主要驱动因素包括基建和乘用车消费，工业 生产、耐用品消费、服务消费提振有限。 债券发行： 截至 5 月 18 日， 29 个地方披露了 2025 年 5 月 /Q2 地方债发行计划（含已知发 行），其中新增专项债发行计划已披露 4159 亿 /10872 亿（ 2024 年同期，已披露地区实际发行 4391 亿 /75 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 前言 近三十余年，广东、江苏一直稳坐我国经济的头两把交椅。作为经济第一大省"一把手"，广东省委书 记也长期位居中央政治局委员之列。 2024 年，两省 GDP 差距大幅缩减，再次引起市场对粤苏模式 的探讨。作为我国经济的" TOP2 "，除了经济体量大的共有特征，两省在其他领域的模式，可以说 是"风格迥异"。除了我们熟知的"核心""散装"经济模式外，还涵盖财政、基建、地产、消费、产业等 多个领域。对粤苏模式的拆解，也是在分析当前经济不同领域的演变趋势。 报告摘要 一、 GDP ：核心 VS 散装 广东省内 GDP 集中度较高，以广深等城市为"核心"；江苏更为均衡，呈"散装"模式 。用省内倒数两 个城市的 GDP/ 前两个城市的 GDP 衡量： 2024 年，广东该指标为 4% ，省内差距是 24 省份中最 大的（不包括直辖市等）；江苏该指标为 21% ，在 24 省中排名第五，是 6 个经济大省中最均衡 的。时间序列看，疫情之后，江苏的省内差 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with some companies facing operational pressures while positive trends in consumption, industry, and capital markets are emerging [2] Employment Issues - The total number of employees in manufacturing listed companies reached 16.01 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 4.1% in the previous year [4][14] - Employment growth is primarily driven by the automotive manufacturing and computer communication electronics sectors, which contributed nearly all of the employment increase [4][14] Income Distribution - The average salary in the manufacturing sector is projected to be 176,000 yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, aligning closely with the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income [5][20] - The ratio of manufacturing average salary to financial industry salary has increased, reaching its highest level since 2012, indicating a favorable environment for talent influx into manufacturing [5][20] Profitability Issues - Manufacturing companies are experiencing profitability pressure, with operating profit declining by 12.2% year-on-year in 2024, and the operating profit margin dropping from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2024 [6][24] - The profitability pressure index for the industrial sector has risen to 10.5%, indicating increased pressure compared to 7.7% in 2023 [6][25] Investment Returns - The estimated investment return for manufacturing listed companies is approximately 5.4% in 2024, down from 6.4% in the previous year, marking a decline in absolute levels [7][33] - Despite the overall decline, certain sectors such as leather, computer communication electronics, and general equipment have shown a rebound in investment returns [7][33] Asset and Liability Issues - Total assets of manufacturing listed companies grew by 5.1% year-on-year in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [8][36] - The asset-liability ratio has continued to rise, reaching 52% in 2024, indicating increasing debt levels [8][36] Cash Flow - The accounts receivable turnover days increased to 57.1 days in 2024, indicating greater collection pressure [9][45] - The growth rate of monetary funds for non-financial A-share companies turned negative at -1.9% in 2024, with manufacturing experiencing a significant decline to -2.8% [9][45] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for manufacturing listed companies decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in 2024, contrasting with a growth of 3.4% in the previous year [10][48] - Newly listed companies have shown a significant increase in capital expenditure, with a growth rate of 23.7% in 2023-2024, indicating a divergence from established firms [10][48] Financing Issues - The growth rate of interest-bearing debt for manufacturing listed companies slowed to 6.8% in 2024, continuing a trend of deceleration since 2022 [11][57] - The interest burden has decreased, with the ratio of interest expenses to interest-bearing debt falling to 3.36% in 2024, indicating a reduction in debt servicing costs [11][57]