2025年中金公司中期投资策略会 CICC Investment Strategy Conference 2H25 扫描末尾二维码 查看更多会议信息 重磅嘉宾(按发言顺序) 海尔集团董事局主席、首席执行官 Chairman of the Board Chief Executive Officer, Haier Group 彭文生 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人 中金研究院院长 Chief Economist, Head of Research Department Dean of CICC Global Institute, CICC Eswar S. Prasad 美国康奈尔大学经济学教授 美国布鲁金斯学会高级研究员 Professor of Economics, Cornell University Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution 总量主题论坛 6月11日 浦江楼3层长安+洛阳+开封厅 中国云观经济展望/美国云观经济展望 14:00 - 14:40 张文朗 中金公司首席宏观分析师、董事总经理 刘政宁 中金公司执行总经理、中金美国证券首席经济学家 14:40-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent low level of stock index futures basis is linked to the dynamics of Dynamic Coupon Notes (DCN) products, which are believed to potentially reduce the basis rather than deepen it [1][4][31]. Group 1: Stock Index Futures Basis - The recent basis rates for IC and IM have reached historical lows, influenced by factors such as hedging, trading, dividend cycles, and policy restrictions [2][6]. - The basis rates are expected to exhibit cyclical fluctuations, with the current deep basis potentially benefiting the yield and scale of structured products like DCN and snowball products [2][7]. - The basis rates for IC and IM, after adjusting for dividends, remain at historical lows, indicating persistent pressure on the stock index futures market [8][9]. Group 2: Dynamic Coupon Notes (DCN) - DCN is characterized as a type of snowball product without an observation for knock-in, providing fixed income features combined with derivatives [3][25]. - The structure of DCN allows for monthly interest payments if the index price meets certain thresholds, with a risk of loss if the index falls below a specified level at maturity [25][30]. - The hedging mechanism of DCN is smoother compared to traditional snowball products, as it lacks a knock-in feature, resulting in a more stable impact on the stock index futures market [4][31]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Product Scale - The total scale of snowball-like structured products is estimated to be around 100 billion yuan, which is less than half of the scale at the beginning of 2024 [4][31][38]. - The recent deep basis in stock index futures is expected to lead to a rapid increase in the yield and scale of DCN and similar structured products [4][45]. - The issuance of DCN products is seen as attractive in a low-interest environment, potentially leading to increased demand and market activity [4][31].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing rapid technological iteration and large-scale application of in-car display technologies, particularly in head-up displays (HUD) and virtual panoramic displays, with Chinese manufacturers increasing their market share [1][2][3] Group 1: HUD Market Progress - The penetration rate of HUD in China's passenger car market is increasing, with an expected delivery volume of 3.56 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 55% and an increase in penetration from 11% in 2023 to 16% in 2024 [2][6] - The market is transitioning from linear growth to exponential growth as it crosses the early adopter threshold of 16%, indicating a shift towards mass adoption [2][6] - The main technology in the HUD market is W-HUD, while AR-HUD is gaining traction due to its immersive interaction experience [3][14] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Chinese manufacturers are gradually increasing their market share in the HUD sector, with local companies accounting for 56.78% of the market by 2024, up from 90.16% held by Japanese companies in 2019 [2][21] - The average price of HUD products is decreasing, with a notable drop in the average price of W-HUD products from 971 yuan in 2022 to 837 yuan in 2024, a cumulative decline of 14% [8][10] Group 3: Virtual Panoramic Display - Virtual panoramic displays are expected to enter mass production in 2025, offering a wide display area and improved visual clarity compared to traditional HUDs [3][24] - This technology allows for a more immersive display experience, combining the benefits of HUDs and traditional screens without the limitations of screen curvature [25][29] - Companies like Xiaomi and BMW are leading the development of virtual panoramic displays, with innovative features such as high dynamic range and enhanced brightness control [29][33] Group 4: Technical Challenges and Innovations - The development of virtual panoramic displays faces technical challenges, including optical design, heat management, and distortion control, which need to be addressed for successful mass production [37][42] - The integration of advanced algorithms and UI interactions is crucial for enhancing user experience and ensuring high-quality display performance [42][43] - Companies with comprehensive capabilities in display technology are expected to gain a competitive edge in the market as they navigate these challenges [43]

Core Viewpoint - Recent tariff events have led to significant market volatility, prompting the construction of VIX indicators for major A-share indices and the use of Spline interpolation to create implied volatility surfaces, which revealed effective timing strategies across various indices, particularly with a 22.3% annualized absolute return for the China Securities 1000 Index [1][43]. Group 1: VIX and Market Timing - The VIX is a benchmark indicator for measuring the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days, reflecting market participants' consensus on short-term risk [2][6]. - The VIX's effectiveness as a timing indicator is limited in the A-share market due to differing market dynamics compared to the US, where VIX peaks often correlate with market bottoms [2][7]. - A-share indices do not exhibit the same clear relationship between VIX peaks and market bottoms, leading to weaker overall timing effectiveness [2][7]. Group 2: Implied Volatility and Timing Strategies - Implied volatility (IV) provides a richer data dimension compared to VIX, allowing for more nuanced insights into market sentiment through the construction of an implied volatility surface [3][15]. - The study found that the ratio of deep out-of-the-money put options' IV to call options' IV can serve as a timing indicator, with varying effectiveness based on the expiration dates of the options [3][20]. - Spline interpolation was employed to create a more stable IV surface, enhancing the reliability of the timing indicators derived from it [3][23]. Group 3: Performance of Timing Strategies - The timing strategy based on IV sentiment indicators showed significant effectiveness, particularly for the China Securities 1000 Index, achieving an annualized absolute return of 18% and an excess return of 24% [4][31]. - The strategy's success is attributed to a high win rate rather than the profit-loss ratio, with the China Securities 1000 Index options demonstrating the best performance among tested indices [4][31]. - The use of index futures in conjunction with the timing strategy further enhanced returns, with an annualized absolute return of 22.3% and an excess return of 28.5% when using the China Securities 1000 index futures as the trading vehicle [4][38].

中金研究 我们预计2025-2028年中国民航客运供给（可用座公里）年均增速约3.1%（vs2009-2019年15.4%），其中行业客运飞机年均增速仅2.8%。 这为航空周 期启动奠定了坚实而长久的基础。 2025年以来油价大幅下跌，航空公司成本有望明显改善。若周期上行，航空公司利润弹性较大。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 加征关税或进一步抑制中国民航业供给增速。 当前中美之间加征关税税率较2025年4月大幅降低，但对中国航空供给仍有较大影响，我们认为这可能使得 中国航空公司引进波音新飞机意愿降低，飞机制造商产能恢复周期加长，中国航空公司飞机利用率提升速度放慢。 中国航空公司波音和空客飞机订单近600架（截至2025年4月底），大多集中在2025-2027年交付，但交付不确定性高，延迟交付率较高；未来三年国产飞 机交付量约50架/年。 飞机制造商产能恢复本身受限于2022年至今的供应链紧张，加征关税后零部件供应或更加趋紧，产能恢复更慢。 租赁飞机对中国航空供给影响将逐渐减小。 中国航空公司（特别是三大航）拥有较多飞机订单，通过租赁增长机队的诉求不强；此外，近几年飞机租赁 价格走高，且可能持续走高 ...

中金研究 近年来，国内外头部云计算厂商持续加码AI基建。大缸径发动机是数据中心备用电源柴油发电机组的核心零部件，技术门槛较高，国产化率较低。 我 们认为，当下AIDC建设需求高增，数据中心用柴油发电机组及大缸径发动机迎来量价齐升机遇，全产业链国产替代已成趋势，建议关注自主品牌大缸 径发动机厂商及其供应链厂商。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 大缸径发动机高壁垒高价值，市场规模广阔。 围绕核心部件气缸，发动机具备缸径、行程、缸数、排量等物理参数，直接影响发动机的动力性与经济性 表现。一般而言，发动机缸径越大、排量越高、马力越大，对应着结构更加复杂、技术难度越高、价值量越大。大缸径发动机是指排量在16L及以上、功 率在550kW及以上且缸径在150mm及以上的发动机，主要用在发电、船舶、工业领域，系高技术壁垒、高价值量的发动机产品。我们测算得到大缸径发动 机2023年全球规模超千亿元人民币。 乘AIDC基建东风，大缸径柴油发动机需求高增。 大缸径发动机是数据中心备用电源柴油发电机组的核心部件，决定柴油发电机组的核心功率。我们产业 链调研得到大缸径发动机占柴油发电机组BOM成本约70-80%。受AI驱动下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed in the House is expected to significantly increase the U.S. fiscal deficit over the next decade, confirming previous analyses that the U.S. is unlikely to effectively reduce its deficit due to structural issues like income inequality and re-industrialization [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Overview of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" - The bill includes tax cuts, spending reductions, an increase in the debt ceiling, and policies on defense and immigration [1][3]. Key Components of the Bill - **Tax Cuts**: The bill aims to permanently extend and expand the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an estimated static reduction in fiscal revenue of approximately $4.3 trillion over the next decade [3][5]. - **Spending Cuts**: It proposes significant cuts to social welfare programs, including about $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts and $230 billion in cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [5][6]. - **Defense and Immigration Policies**: Increased spending on defense and border security is included, supporting Trump's initiatives [6]. - **Debt Ceiling Increase**: The bill proposes raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion [6]. Fiscal Impact - The bill is projected to increase the static fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion from FY2025 to FY2034, with dynamic adjustments raising this figure to about $3.2 trillion [6][9]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a deficit increase of $3.7 trillion over the same period [6]. Short-term and Long-term Implications - In the short term, the bill may lead to a slight decrease in the deficit for FY2025, but overall, the deficit is expected to remain high, around $1.9 trillion, with a deficit rate of 6.4% [9]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. will continue to face challenges in reducing the deficit due to ongoing structural issues and the need for fiscal stimulus to address income inequality and infrastructure deficits [11][15]. Market and Policy Responses - The anticipated increase in debt issuance may lead to liquidity pressures in the market, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider measures such as restarting quantitative easing (QE) [25][26]. - The bill's passage could also accelerate financial reforms aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market [26].

Core Viewpoint - The black electrical appliance industry is evolving into a large-scale industry that combines entertainment and essential attributes, driven by innovation and changes in the supply chain dynamics, with Chinese companies poised to achieve breakthroughs in both scale and profitability in the global market [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Historical Context - Profitability and growth potential are key factors suppressing market valuations of black electrical appliance companies, with the average return on equity (ROE) for the black electrical sector from 2010 to 2020 being only 6.5%, significantly lower than white goods (23.5%) and consumer electronics (14.4%) [2][7]. - The black electrical appliance industry has long been characterized by low valuations and profitability due to strong upstream bargaining power, intense competition among brands, and a saturation of domestic market demand [7][8]. Group 2: Industry Restructuring and Technological Upgrades - The restructuring of the supply chain, technological upgrades, and a shift towards high-end products are expected to enhance profitability, with domestic panel manufacturers gaining pricing power and reducing cost volatility [3][8]. - The black electrical appliance industry is entering a new phase of structural upgrades, driven by cost reductions and a trend towards larger and higher-end products, which will likely lead to improved profitability in the long term [3][4]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Since 2000, Korean companies have dominated the global black electrical appliance market, but Chinese companies are now gaining ground through rapid innovation and competitive pricing, with the global market concentration expected to increase, as indicated by a projected 56.3% market share for the top four brands by 2024 [4][34]. - Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL are rapidly expanding their global market share, with Hisense's share increasing from 6.2% in 2016 to 14% in 2024, and TCL's share rising from 5.8% to 13.9% in the same period [35][41]. Group 4: Regional Market Insights - The North American market is characterized by intense competition and a stable retail volume, with Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense increasing their presence in the high-end segment through strategies focused on larger screen sizes and channel optimization [39][41]. - In Europe, while the market is mature and declining, Chinese brands are leveraging sports marketing and local partnerships to enhance brand recognition and market share, with TCL's high-end Mini LED models gaining traction [43][56]. Group 5: Technological Innovations and Consumer Trends - The trend towards larger screens is evident, with the average size of televisions increasing from 39.2 inches in 2015 to 53 inches in 2024, and Chinese manufacturers leading this trend with a significant share of large-screen sales [64][67]. - High-end products are becoming more prevalent, with advancements in display technology such as Mini LED and AI integration driving up prices while maintaining manageable cost increases, thus improving profitability for manufacturers [70][63].

Core Viewpoint - The global grinding machine market is projected to reach $6 billion in 2024, with China accounting for 20% of this market. The market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape due to the specialized nature of grinding processes, which presents both opportunities for growth and challenges for consolidation [3][12][29]. Market Overview - The global grinding machine market size is expected to be approximately $6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3][8]. - China's grinding machine market is estimated at 8.43 billion yuan in 2024, with a domestic production rate of 52% [12][16]. - The market is expected to recover to 9.5 billion yuan by 2025 and reach 10.31 billion yuan by 2028, indicating robust growth potential [12]. Competitive Landscape - The Chinese grinding machine market is highly fragmented, with a CR5 market concentration of only 28.4% as of Q1 2025. The flat grinding machine market is highly concentrated, while external and internal grinding machines have intense competition with many small and medium-sized players [29][31]. - The specialized nature of grinding machines leads to low economies of scale, limiting market consolidation [31]. Supply Chain and Production - The grinding machine production process involves four main stages: casting processing, mechanical processing and forming, assembly and debugging, and quality inspection. Each stage requires strong technical capabilities and resource integration [26][28]. - The cost structure of grinding machines is dominated by spindle, structural components, and CNC systems, which account for 25%, 20%, and 15% of total costs, respectively [24]. Import and Export Dynamics - In 2024, China's grinding machine imports are projected to be $830 million, while exports are expected to be $240 million, resulting in a net import of $590 million [16][20]. - The average export price of Chinese grinding machines is $19,000 per unit, significantly lower than the average import price of $187,000 per unit [16]. Technological Advancements and Market Drivers - The demand for grinding machines is being driven by the growth of humanoid robots, which require high-precision components such as lead screws. The global market for lead screw grinding machines is expected to reach 3.2 billion yuan by 2028 [4][36]. - The acceleration of product iteration and capital operations in the grinding machine sector indicates a golden development period, with local manufacturers making significant technological advancements [4][37]. Future Outlook - The humanoid robot industry is expected to significantly impact the grinding machine market, with projections indicating a demand for 1 million units by 2028, leading to an estimated market size of 3.4 billion yuan for lead screw grinding machines [36]. - Local manufacturers are increasingly focusing on high precision and automation, narrowing the performance gap with imported equipment [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing global demand for High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) projects, particularly in Europe, driven by the need for grid interconnection and long-distance renewable energy transmission, which is expected to catalyze performance for related manufacturers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - European countries are actively planning HVDC projects, with an estimated 100GW expected to be operational in the next decade, particularly in the UK, Germany, and Italy [3][17]. - The average annual production value of overseas HVDC converter systems is projected to exceed $10 billion from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of 21% [3][40]. - The supply side of the HVDC market is highly concentrated among local manufacturers, leading to high barriers to entry and extended delivery times for key components [3][42]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In the UK, there are currently 9 operational interconnectors with a total capacity of 9.8GW, and 4 additional projects are under construction, expected to be operational by 2030 [17]. - Italy's Terna plans to invest over €21 billion in its transmission network over the next decade, with significant HVDC projects planned to enhance interconnection capacity [18]. - Germany is positioned at the core of the European interconnected grid, with approximately 4.2GW of HVDC interconnectors and additional projects planned [18]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - HVDC technology is favored for large-scale, long-distance power transmission due to its higher reliability and efficiency, with energy losses 30-50% lower than High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) systems [6][7]. - The VSC-HVDC technology is increasingly adopted in Europe, providing flexibility and stability for offshore wind power integration [6][7]. Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are beginning to explore HVDC projects, driven by energy transition needs and grid interconnection demands [35][36]. - The Middle East and North Africa region is witnessing significant planning for HVDC projects to address mismatches between energy resources and load centers [35][36]. Group 5: Key Players - The HVDC converter market is dominated by three major players: Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova, which collectively hold over 90% of the market share [42][44]. - European cable manufacturers, including Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT, lead the HVDC cable market, while Asian companies are gradually entering the market [46].