Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the new credit data for September may not be as weak as it appears, with adjustments for replacement bonds suggesting a stronger underlying credit demand than reported [2][3]. Group 1: Credit Data Analysis - In September, new credit amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, resulting in a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6% [3]. - Adjusting for the impact of replacement bonds, the year-on-year growth rate of credit balance in September is estimated to be 7.7% [3]. - The central rate of bill interest rates in September has significantly increased compared to August, indicating a potential improvement in credit demand [3]. Group 2: M1 Growth and Policy Implications - M1 growth in September reached 7.2%, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3.1% after seasonal adjustments [3]. - The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point increase in M1 growth corresponds to approximately 1 trillion yuan in economic activity, indicating a moderate policy stimulus [3]. - The recent implementation of policy financial tools and a rapid decline in fiscal deposits, which fell by 840 billion yuan in September, are contributing factors to the observed M1 growth [3][4]. Group 3: Real Estate Policy Impact - The easing of real estate policies in major cities has led to an increase in housing transactions, with a 7% year-on-year growth in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities in September [4]. - New long-term loans for residents reached 250 billion yuan in September, an increase of 20 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, contrasting with a decline in August [4]. - The sustainability of this credit growth may be challenged due to the potential temporary nature of the real estate sales data [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - To ensure reasonable growth in financial aggregate indicators, continued fiscal policy support is necessary [4]. - The year-on-year growth rates of social financing and M2 have shown a decline, with social financing growth at 8.7% and M2 growth at 8.4% in September, indicating a potential decrease in overall financing demand [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the development and application of the Kronos model, a Time-Series Foundation Model (TSFM) specifically designed for financial market data, particularly K-line data [3][9][17] - Kronos aims to address the challenges of low signal-to-noise ratio and strong non-stationarity in financial time series data, which often hinder the performance of general-purpose models [3][9] - The model employs a two-phase framework: K-line tokenization and autoregressive pre-training, allowing it to effectively learn the complex "language" of financial markets [12][13][17] Summary by Sections Introduction to TSFM - TSFMs have emerged from the success of large-scale language models in NLP and CV, focusing on pre-training on diverse time series data to create a general-purpose model adaptable to various tasks [2][6] - The key advantages of TSFMs include their generalization and transfer learning capabilities, enabling them to learn universal time patterns and trends from vast datasets [2][6] Overview of Kronos Model - Kronos is tailored for financial K-line data, utilizing a "domain pre-training + fine-tuning" approach to deeply understand financial market characteristics [3][9] - The model's architecture includes a specialized tokenizer and a large autoregressive Transformer model, which learns the syntax and dynamics of financial data [9][12][17] Performance Evaluation of Kronos - Initial tests of the Kronos standard model on major A-share indices showed a high correlation between predicted and actual closing prices, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.732 for the 5-day forecast [4][19] - The model's predictive performance improved significantly when fine-tuned, achieving a Spearman correlation of 0.856 for the same forecast [4][39] Application of Kronos in Timing Strategies - The article explores the application of Kronos in constructing timing strategies based on predicted closing prices, specifically for the CSI 1000 index [30][33] - The strategy generated positive returns, but it missed significant upward trends since July 2025, indicating a reliance on prior index reversal logic [30][33] Enhanced Performance with Fine-Tuning - A fine-tuned version of Kronos demonstrated a 33.9% return in 2025, with an annualized excess return of 9%, outperforming the original method by over 20 percentage points [5][42] - The fine-tuning process involved adjusting model parameters and rolling adjustments to better adapt to market conditions, leading to improved predictive accuracy [34][42] Conclusion - Kronos represents a significant advancement in financial time series forecasting, effectively capturing the complexities of financial data and translating predictions into actionable investment strategies [17][42]

Core Viewpoint - Since April 2025, China's exports to the US have decreased significantly, while exports to non-US regions have increased overall, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2][3]. Export Trends - From April to August 2025, China's exports to the US fell by 25.4% year-on-year, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, Japan, Latin America, and Africa increased by 9.5%, 18.3%, 6.0%, 4.0%, and 32.2% respectively [2]. - In the same period, US imports from China dropped by 35.6%, contrasting with a 5.2% increase in the first three months of 2025 [2]. - The export growth rates from China to ASEAN and the US have shown a correlation increase, but the relationship remains low, suggesting that the changes cannot be solely attributed to transshipment effects [4]. Tariff Impact - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the US on ASEAN countries from April 5 to August 6, 2025, has influenced export patterns, leading to a temporary increase in imports from ASEAN to the US [3]. - Post-August, the export growth from ASEAN to the US has generally declined, while China's exports to ASEAN have increased, indicating a complex interaction rather than a straightforward transshipment effect [3]. Global Value Chain Insights - The analysis of the global value chain (GVC) indicates that the indirect exposure of China to the US has increased, but this does not fully offset the decline in direct exports to the US [4]. - In 2018, the share of exports to the US from other regions that originated in China was 3.8%, which increased to 4.2% by 2024, showing limited marginal growth compared to the overall decline in exports [4]. Corporate Expansion and Investment - The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is expected to support exports to non-US regions and boost exports from these regions to the US [5]. - In 2024, foreign investments contributed to an export increase of $211 billion, representing a 13% year-on-year growth and accounting for 5.9% of China's total goods exports [5].

Core Viewpoint - The development of urban governance drones is driven by urbanization pressures and the increasing demand for public safety, presenting significant investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy and urban safety construction [2][3][6]. Group 1: Urban Governance Challenges - Urbanization in China is accelerating, with vehicle ownership expected to exceed 460 million by June 2025, leading to severe traffic congestion [6]. - The number of high-rise buildings has surpassed one million, increasing fire hazards and complicating emergency responses [6]. - The growing floating population, which reached 376 million, heightens the need for public safety event warnings [6]. Group 2: Policy Support for Drone Applications - A multi-dimensional policy framework has been established at both national and local levels to support the application of drones in urban safety [10][11]. - The National Security Law and various local government initiatives promote the use of drones in policing and security [10][11]. Group 3: Market Potential for Urban Drones - The potential market size for urban governance drones in security, firefighting, and environmental monitoring is estimated at 136 billion yuan, with an average annual market potential of 54 billion yuan after depreciation [4][28][30]. - Specific market sizes include 95 billion yuan for urban security, 36 billion yuan for firefighting and emergency rescue, and 5 billion yuan for environmental monitoring [4][28][30]. Group 4: Industry Chain Development - The drone industry is experiencing opportunities across the entire value chain, from core component suppliers to midstream manufacturers and downstream service providers [31][32]. - Cost optimization in drone equipment and operations is enhancing the economic feasibility of large-scale applications in urban governance [31]. Group 5: Technological Advancements and Customization - Drones are evolving from generic components to customized modules tailored for specific urban applications, driven by increasing market demand and technological advancements [33][34]. - Leading manufacturers are focusing on building scalable ecosystems and enhancing their technological capabilities to meet diverse urban needs [34][35]. Group 6: Downstream Application Trends - The demand for urban drones is expanding, with applications in public safety, environmental monitoring, and emergency response becoming increasingly critical [37]. - The procurement model is shifting from traditional equipment purchases to service-oriented solutions that integrate data and operational support [36].

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the list of delegated investment institutions by European pension funds, particularly the PFZW, are primarily driven by a shift towards sustainability and ESG considerations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Changes in Delegated Investment Institutions - On September 3, PFZW announced the termination of partnerships with Blackrock, L&G, and AQR Capital, which collectively managed 50.9% of its assets [9][12]. - The shift in PFZW's investment strategy emphasizes sustainability, with a focus on climate goals and reducing carbon emissions [3][12]. - PFZW's absolute carbon emissions decreased by 45% from 2019 to 2024, but it still falls short of its 50% reduction target by 2030 [15][17]. Group 2: Trends in European Pension Funds - European pension funds are experiencing a slowdown in divestment from high-carbon industries, with a rebound in investments in fossil fuels observed in 2023, rising to approximately 11.5% of total assets [28]. - A significant increase in the number of pension funds setting climate-related goals has been noted, with many establishing targets for fossil fuel divestment and carbon reduction [31][33]. - Climate voting has emerged as a preferred method for pension funds to influence corporate behavior and achieve climate objectives, driven by both internal strategies and external regulatory pressures [5][35]. Group 3: Impact of Climate Voting - Analysis indicates that climate voting positively correlates with reduced carbon footprints and does not negatively impact portfolio returns, suggesting a "cost-effective" approach for investors [39][40]. - The study found that increasing the proportion of supportive climate votes is associated with lower future carbon emissions and higher total returns [39][40]. - Climate voting is seen as a critical tool for managing climate risks within investment portfolios, with recommendations for asset owners to consider climate responsibility in their selection of asset managers [44][45]. Group 4: Recommendations for Chinese Investors - The climate action logic observed in European pension funds can provide valuable insights for the Chinese market, advocating for supporting the transition of high-carbon industries rather than outright divestment [44][45]. - Chinese asset owners and managers are encouraged to prioritize climate voting as a means to influence corporate low-carbon transition decisions, aligning with national strategies [44][45]. - Suggested focus areas for climate voting policies include setting clear climate goals, encouraging carbon emissions disclosure, and integrating climate risk into overall risk management frameworks [46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the style rotation effect in the Hong Kong stock market, utilizing a multi-factor model based on five categories of information, achieving an annualized return of 19.50% and an annualized excess return of 8.98% compared to an equal-weighted benchmark [2][7]. Group 1: Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Hong Kong Stock Style Rotation - The technology and dividend styles in the Hong Kong stock market exhibit a long-term negative correlation in returns, indicating a clear rotation phenomenon, with short-term advantages rotating monthly and long-term advantages lasting over six months [4][11]. - The excess returns of the Hang Seng and CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect technology and dividend indices have maintained a strong positive correlation since mid-2020, while the excess returns of the dividend and technology styles have shown a strong negative correlation, making it suitable for constructing style rotation strategies [4][11]. - The rotation speed between technology and dividend styles is moderate, with short-term advantages rotating monthly and long-term advantages extending beyond six months [4][11]. Group 2: Multi-Factor Style Rotation Model Framework - A ridge logistic regression method with a collinearity penalty term is employed to confirm parameters and factors through rolling regression, ultimately determining the style rotation viewpoint through a simple binary classification [5][6]. - The model selects 101 indicators from five categories to assess the predictive ability of individual indicators, using a two-year rolling window for training [5][25]. - The model generates style holding views based on predicted probabilities, employing both a simple binary classification method and a buffer zone method to manage position adjustments [6][32]. Group 3: Model Performance and Insights - The simple binary classification model achieves an annualized return of 19.50%, with an annualized excess return of 8.98% and a relative volatility of 13.62%, demonstrating significant return enhancement capabilities [7][34]. - The model's average monthly return for predicting technology style outperformance is 1.78%, while for predicting dividend style outperformance, it is 1.17% [7][34]. - The model's performance has shown positive excess returns in most years, with notable years being 2020 and 2024, where excess returns exceeded 20% [7][39]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Style Rotation - Five dimensions are identified as influencing factors for style rotation: macroeconomic, funding, market, fundamental, and valuation indicators, with all indicators standardized to a monthly frequency [19][21]. - Macroeconomic indicators reflect the growth, inflation, and liquidity status of China, Hong Kong, and the U.S., highlighting the interconnectedness of these economies [19][20]. - Funding indicators include net inflows and preferences of southbound funds and global public funds, which are crucial for understanding style performance [21][22]. Group 5: Current Recommendations and Future Outlook - As of September 30, 2025, the latest recommendation is to allocate to the Hong Kong dividend style, primarily due to the negative correlation of selected volatility ratio factors with the probability of technology style outperformance [35][39]. - The analysis indicates that the dividend style has certain advantages in risk aversion, especially as the volatility of the technology style remains higher than that of the dividend style [35][39].

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions is expected to have a weaker impact on A-shares compared to previous events, with a continued revaluation of Chinese assets anticipated in the medium term [3][4]. Market Impact - The US plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has led to significant declines in global equity markets and commodities [2][3]. - Major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced declines of 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively, marking the largest single-day drops since April [2]. - A-shares, including the ChiNext and Hang Seng Tech Index, also saw declines of 5.6% and 3.3% respectively, indicating a broader market reaction [2]. Industry Analysis - **Machinery, Military, and Shipbuilding**: Increased focus on "self-sufficiency" and "security" assets is expected, with scientific instruments and high-end machine tools being particularly relevant [3]. - **Aerospace Engine Supply Chain**: There is potential for further improvement in domestic aerospace engine self-sufficiency, which is currently highly dependent on external sources [4]. - **Software**: Attention is drawn to industrial software and EDA design tools that may be primarily targeted by new tariffs [4]. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The energy storage cell segment may face restrictions similar to those seen in April, impacting leading companies in the new energy sector [4]. - **Photovoltaics**: The marginal impact of US tariff policies on the photovoltaic industry is expected to be limited [4]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: The comprehensive and deepened export controls on rare earths signal significant strategic implications, with current export volumes remaining stable [4]. Valuation Insights - A-shares are currently assessed to be within a reasonable valuation range, with the CSI 300 index trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.5x, slightly above its historical average [6][7]. - Compared to global markets, A-shares remain relatively undervalued, with the S&P 500 and other major indices trading at higher forward P/E ratios [6]. - The relative attractiveness of equities remains, with the CSI 300 index's dividend yield at approximately 2.6%, compared to the yield on ten-year government bonds [6][7]. Market Positioning - The current market environment suggests a potential for short-term adjustments, particularly in growth sectors that have seen significant gains [5][6]. - The valuation of A-shares relative to GDP and M2 is low, indicating room for growth and investment opportunities [7][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) and its implications for the international monetary system, particularly in the context of the "de-dollarization" trend and the structural changes in global finance [2][25]. Group 1: Hibor Mechanism - Hibor reflects the average overnight borrowing rates among 20 major banks in Hong Kong and is influenced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) efforts to maintain a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar [3][5]. - The HKMA's actions to stabilize the currency involve adjusting liquidity in the banking system, which directly impacts Hibor rates [5][6]. Group 2: Hibor's Unexpected Low Levels - From May to August, Hibor experienced a significant drop from over 4% to near 0%, remaining at historical lows for three months before rising again [6][10]. - The prolonged low levels of Hibor were attributed to a decrease in the attractiveness of US dollar assets, which reduced the scale of carry and arbitrage trades that typically influence Hibor [6][15]. Group 3: International Monetary System Implications - The sustained low Hibor levels are seen as a reflection of the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary system, moving from a dollar-centric model to a more diversified framework [25][27]. - The article highlights two trends in this restructuring: fragmentation, indicating a return to local preferences in capital allocation, and diversification, where investors increasingly favor alternative assets like the Chinese yuan [27][15].

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has maintained a robust supply and demand dynamic since 2025, with increasing market attention and a total of 127 valid questionnaires collected during the annual market survey conducted from September 25 to September 30 [2] Group 1: Market Participants and Investment Strategies - Securities firms and insurance institutions are the main participants in the market, with over 30% of insurance and over 40% of securities firms having cumulative investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][11] - Institutions are diversifying their investment strategies, with a high interest in new issuance strategies, while over 30% of institutions are exploring private REITs investment opportunities [4][16] - The majority of institutions still rely on offline/public subscription and secondary market participation as their main investment methods, with a notable increase in the use of entrusted accounts for REITs investments [4][16] Group 2: Market Size and Liquidity Concerns - Market size and liquidity remain significant concerns, with many investors indicating that the market is still too small and lacks sufficient liquidity, similar to last year's survey results [5][29] - Nearly 70% of sample institutions plan to increase their REITs allocation in 2026, focusing on sectors such as consumption, data centers, and affordable rental housing [5][33] - Institutions have a cautious outlook on returns, with about 60% expecting REITs market returns to be in the high single-digit range (5-10%) for 2026 [5][33] Group 3: Private REITs and Future Outlook - Over 30% of institutions are paying attention to private REITs, which have seen a faster issuance pace this year, with 14 listed holding-type real estate ABS totaling 21.4 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [23] - Institutions perceive private REITs as having advantages such as stronger valuation stability, flexibility, and higher distribution rates compared to public REITs, although concerns about liquidity and transparency remain [23][29] - The market is expected to see a gradual increase in private REITs issuance, which could become an important part of a multi-tiered REITs market [23] Group 4: Institutional Confidence and Sector Focus - Institutions exhibit a neutral to optimistic attitude towards the recovery of underlying asset fundamentals in 2026, with a focus on stable sectors such as consumption infrastructure, data centers, and affordable rental housing [41] - The top three sectors of interest for insurance and securities firms differ slightly, with insurance firms favoring consumption, affordable housing, and water and electricity, while securities firms prefer consumption, data centers, and affordable housing [41][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the implications of new tariffs and export controls, and the potential market reactions and strategies for investors [2][4][20]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on all Chinese products starting November 1, alongside new export controls on key software products, leading to significant market volatility [2][4]. - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.6%, and the VIX index surged to 22, marking the largest fluctuations since the "reciprocal tariffs" in April [2][10]. Tariff and Export Control Measures - The US has implemented additional port fees on Chinese-owned or operated vessels, starting October 14, with fees increasing over the next three years [3][4]. - China responded by imposing special port fees on US vessels, starting at 400 RMB (approximately 56 USD) per net ton, also set to increase over three years [3][4]. - China has tightened export controls on rare earth materials, which account for 61% of global mining share, affecting key industries and supply chains [4][20]. Historical Context and Market Reactions - The article outlines three phases of the current US-China tariff conflict: continuous escalation from January to April, a period of easing from May to September, and a recent re-escalation in October [7][8]. - The current market environment differs from April, with investors having more preparedness and a better understanding of potential outcomes, leading to less severe market reactions compared to previous tariff announcements [10][13]. Future Outlook - The potential for negotiation remains, as both sides have more leverage and preparation compared to earlier phases of the trade conflict. The upcoming APEC meeting may serve as a critical juncture for discussions [20][24]. - The article suggests that the high tariffs could lead to increased inflation in the US and further economic pressure in China, making a compromise more likely to avoid severe economic consequences [20][24]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, considering the potential for short-term volatility due to the tariff developments. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation leading up to the APEC meeting [25][26]. - The current market conditions, including high valuations and accumulated gains, may prompt some investors to take profits, leading to short-term fluctuations [25][26].