中金研究 " 固收 +" 基金本质上是一种混合资产配置型产品，因其涉及资产类型多元，投资策略手段丰富，而肩负着市场对于 " 稳中求进 " 的收益诉求或者 " 涨多跌 少 " 的期待。因此我们在优选 " 固收 +" 基金时，核心目标是把握好风险和收益之间的微妙平衡 —— 于进取处博增益，于波动中守安宁。 点击小程序查看报告原文 "固收+"基金：构建穿越周期/高波进攻的FOF组合 因子测试：从投资能力评价到未来收益预测。 在前序研究中，我们已初步搭建起"固收+"基金的投研评价体系，本篇我们落地实际投资优选，测试基于历 史信息构建的指标对于基金未来收益的预测效果。考虑到"固收+"基金的特性，我们在正文详细介绍了因子回测框架的相关细节，最终挖掘出五个有效选 基指标，分别来自持续盈利能力、收益获取能力、证券综合选择能力、股票投资与交易能力、风险控制能力细分维度。 组合构建：将四个低相关性的进攻型因子等权合成，构建高波"固收+"基金组合。 组合按1‰调仓成本做扣除，同时考虑基金实际申购等限制，回溯区间 2015.11-2025.4，季度频率，组合年化回报4.25%，相对Wind二级债基指数年化超额1.17%，相对等权基准 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of low-altitude economy and technology-driven agriculture is creating significant investment opportunities in the drone industry, particularly in agricultural modernization and efficiency improvements [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Food consumption significantly impacts residents' living standards, with food and beverage spending accounting for 30.4% of per capita consumption in the first half of 2025 [5]. - China, with 18% of the global population, consumes approximately 30% of the world's rice, 51% of pork, 46% of vegetables, 37% of fruits, and 40% of seafood, highlighting the importance of food security [5]. - The limited arable land, which constitutes only 8.2% of the global total, necessitates higher agricultural productivity to ensure food security [5][7]. Supply Side Analysis - The total arable land in China remained stable at 1.93 billion acres in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.58% since 2019 [13]. - The agricultural sector is primarily composed of smallholder farms, facing labor shortages and rising costs, which traditional farming methods cannot sustain [13][14]. - The demand for agricultural drones is driven by the need for efficient, large-scale operations, as the industry shifts towards mechanization and modernization [3][14]. Drone Applications and Benefits - Drones are well-suited for high-load, repetitive agricultural tasks, enhancing productivity, quality, environmental sustainability, and economic efficiency [3][16]. - Drones can increase crop yields through precise spraying and fertilization, reduce pesticide residues, and improve crop quality by minimizing soil compaction [16][17]. - The use of drones can lead to significant cost savings in water and pesticide usage, as demonstrated by a case study showing a 25% increase in yield and substantial reductions in operational costs [17]. Market Potential - The potential demand for agricultural drones in China is estimated to reach 6.24 million units, with a corresponding market value of 224.6 billion yuan, and an annual demand of 1.12 million units valued at 44.9 billion yuan [24]. - The service market for agricultural drones is projected to reach 225.6 billion yuan annually, driven by the increasing acceptance of professional services among small and medium-sized farmers [25][26]. Policy and Technological Drivers - The development of the agricultural drone industry is supported by favorable low-altitude economy policies and technological advancements that reduce costs and improve product performance [20][21]. - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to encourage the cultivation of skilled drone operators and provide subsidies for agricultural drones, enhancing the industry's growth prospects [20][21]. Industry Chain Perspective - The rapid development of agricultural drones is benefiting the entire industry chain, from upstream component suppliers to midstream brand manufacturers and downstream service providers [27][29]. - Upstream suppliers of key components such as sensors and batteries are expected to benefit from increased demand and technological advancements in the drone sector [29][30]. - Leading midstream companies like DJI and XAG dominate the market, with a combined market share of approximately 50% in the global agricultural drone market [31].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been active this year but has recently lagged behind the A-share market, particularly since July, where the Hang Seng Index has struggled to break through the 25,000-point mark, showing only a 3% increase compared to A-shares' significant gains of 9.2% and 20% for the ChiNext Index [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has been stagnant since mid-July, contrasting sharply with the A-share market's performance, which has reached a ten-year high [2]. - Despite a recovery since April, the Hong Kong market has underperformed compared to global peers, with the Hang Seng Tech Index failing to recover losses from March [5][6]. Group 2: Reasons for Underperformance - The underperformance of the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: liquidity tightening (Hibor rising), downward revisions in earnings, and low valuation (AH premium below 125%) [8][19]. - Hibor rates have surged from near zero to close to 3% within a week, indicating a tightening of liquidity in the Hong Kong banking sector [8][9]. - In contrast, the A-share market has enjoyed ample liquidity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan and financing balances surpassing 2 trillion yuan [11][12]. Group 3: Earnings and Valuation - Earnings for the Hang Seng Index have been continuously revised downwards, with consensus estimates for 2025 showing a negative growth of -1.4% compared to a positive growth forecast of 10% for the MSCI China A-share Index [19][22]. - The AH premium has dropped below 125%, reducing the attractiveness of dividends for many investors, which has contributed to the market's struggles [26][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may provide some liquidity support for the Hong Kong market, but it is not seen as a definitive driver [14][17]. - The long-term structural advantages of the Hong Kong market remain, particularly in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which could attract investment despite short-term challenges [44][45]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current strategy suggests that while the Hong Kong market may lag in the short term due to liquidity issues and earnings downgrades, it holds long-term structural advantages that could yield better returns [44][45]. - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities rather than merely index performance, as the market has shown significant potential for alpha generation through sector rotation [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in Shanghai's real estate policies are expected to provide a temporary boost to market sentiment, particularly in the local housing market [3]. Policy Adjustments - The new policies include the removal of purchase limits for local residents and non-local residents who have paid social security or taxes for over a year, as well as an increase in the purchase limit for single residents in the inner ring from one to two units [3]. - The policies also optimize housing provident fund loans, allowing for a 15% increase in loan limits for purchasing new green buildings and enabling the withdrawal of provident funds for down payments without affecting loan limits [3]. - The mortgage interest rate pricing mechanism will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, and property tax exemptions will be provided for non-local residents on their first home [3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, A-share developers' stock prices increased by 4.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points, while H-share developers' stock prices rose by 2.0%, surpassing the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.2 percentage points [2]. - The overall performance of real estate stocks has been positive, with A-share developers up 6.9% and H-share developers up 9.8% since early August [4]. Future Outlook - The effectiveness of these policy adjustments is expected to be regional and temporary, with the overall improvement in real estate sales volume and prices still dependent on the implementation of policies related to inventory housing and urban village renovations [3][4]. - The recent policy changes in Shanghai align with similar measures taken in Beijing, both aimed at stimulating demand from potential buyers in peripheral areas and enhancing the purchasing power of first-time and upgrading homebuyers [3].

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth from January to July 2025 significantly exceeded market expectations, driven by the acceleration of industrialization in emerging markets and developing countries, alongside China's competitive supply chain and increased export of intermediate goods [2][4]. Export Growth Analysis - In the first seven months of 2025, China's exports in dollar terms increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the market anticipated only a 0.88% growth due to global tariff disruptions [2]. - The export growth was primarily supported by intermediate goods, which saw a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, outperforming capital goods at 6.8% and consumer goods at -1.6% [4]. Export Structure Changes - The share of intermediate goods in China's export structure rose from 45.4% in 2024 to 47.4% in 2025, while consumer goods decreased from 31.9% to 29.4%, and capital goods slightly declined from 20.0% to 19.9% [6]. - Since 2018, the share of intermediate goods in China's exports has been on an upward trend, increasing by 5.5 percentage points from 2017 to the first seven months of 2025 [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - The growth in intermediate goods exports was primarily directed towards emerging markets and developing countries, with significant increases in exports to Thailand (28%), Saudi Arabia (23%), and India (21%) [8][10]. - In contrast, exports of intermediate goods to developed countries like the United States, Netherlands, and Japan experienced negative growth [8]. Sector-Specific Export Performance - Key sectors showing high growth in intermediate goods exports included machinery and electronics (15%), non-ferrous metals (6%), transportation equipment (7%), and precision instruments (16%) [15]. - This performance reflects China's manufacturing scale advantages and enhanced technological innovation capabilities [15].

Core Viewpoint - The market interpreted Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as a dovish signal for monetary easing, but the company believes it does not provide strong guidance on the sustainability and extent of rate cuts, rather clarifying the Fed's "reaction function" in response to employment and inflation risks [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Reaction Function - Powell indicated that the Fed would lean towards rate cuts when employment risks outweigh inflation risks. However, if inflation risks surpass employment concerns, the Fed could halt rate cuts using the same "reaction function" [5][9]. - The current environment of higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies creates a scenario where both employment and inflation risks coexist, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [4][5]. Economic Context and Risks - Powell acknowledged that structural shocks are impacting the economy, with higher tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies slowing labor growth. He emphasized that while monetary policy can stabilize cyclical fluctuations, it is largely ineffective against structural shocks [8][9]. - The Fed's revised monetary policy framework for 2025 emphasizes a balanced approach to employment and inflation, moving away from the previous average inflation targeting that allowed for higher inflation in pursuit of more jobs [5][9]. Comparison with Previous Guidance - Compared to his 2024 speech, Powell's current guidance reflects a lack of confidence in the ability to achieve the 2% inflation target, indicating a more cautious stance on monetary easing [6][7]. - The current economic situation is described as challenging, with inflation risks tilted to the upside and employment risks to the downside, contrasting with the more confident tone of the previous year [7][9]. Market Implications - The company suggests that the market should not overly interpret Powell's dovish comments as a clear signal for a series of rate cuts. Even if a 25 basis point cut occurs in September, it does not imply the beginning of a broader easing cycle [9]. - The potential for "stagflation" could lead to increased market volatility as the Fed navigates conflicting employment and inflation targets [9].

中金研究 我们提出，中国猪业已步入新范式：猪价、增长、投资新范式。我们认为传统猪周期规律逐步失效，"振幅收敛、长度缩短、波动下降"特征强化，源 自后非瘟时代规模化快速提升及固定资产冗余背景下产业分工重塑，近期"反内卷"监管政策调控强化了这一特征。相应地，产业及投资逻辑已变，龙 头因内生增长动能、分红能力更强，成长与价值稀缺性均在凸显。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 猪价新范式：振幅收敛、长度缩短、波动下降，传统猪周期规律失效。1）后非瘟时期传统猪价规律不 再应验 ，期货市场多次错判。 能 繁 存栏不再与10 个月后的猪价拐点相对应；期货市场对4Q23/3Q24/1Q25等猪价预测偏离达4/4/2元/公斤。 2）新范式特征不断强化。振幅收敛： 2018-2024年三轮猪价快速 上涨的最大涨幅分别为314%/148%/58%； 长度缩短： 2006-2021年期间猪周期长度较为规律，均约4年，2021年以来猪周期长度多为1-2年； 波动下降： 波动较非瘟前阶段性加大，但非瘟后已逐年下降。 猪价新范式由何而来？规模化提升叠加猪场产能相对冗余，产业分工重塑。1）振幅收敛源自规模化率提升。 规模企业周期下行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging trend of "deposit migration" among residents in China, which is contributing to increased activity in the A-share market, as evidenced by the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index and trading volumes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Deposit Migration Trends - Recent data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, residents' cumulative new deposits reached 48.7 trillion yuan, with a 47.6% increase in savings deposits, outpacing nominal GDP growth [2]. - In July, there was a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan in new resident deposits, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 1.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in deposit preferences [2]. - The growth rate of household demand deposits has rebounded to 6.8% as of July 2025, while time deposit growth has declined from 14.9% to 11.5% [2]. Reasons for Deposit Migration - The macro liquidity environment is relatively loose, with the 10-year government bond yield below 1.8% and the 1-year LPR at 3%, making traditional savings less attractive [3]. - The A-share market has become more appealing due to a lack of high-yield investment options, with the dividend yield of A-shares remaining significantly higher than that of 10-year government bonds [3]. - The market has shown signs of recovery, with the total return of the Wind All A Index exceeding various cost lines, indicating a positive earning effect that attracts new investors [3]. Historical Performance During Deposit Migration - Historically, periods of deposit migration have correlated with upward trends in the A-share market, as seen in 2009 and 2014-2015 [4]. - Specific sectors tend to outperform during these periods, such as technology and non-bank financials, driven by macroeconomic trends and policy support [4]. - The article notes that deposit migration often occurs after a market rally, highlighting the importance of earning effects in driving investor behavior [4]. Future Outlook - The trend of deposit migration is expected to continue, with potential funds available for market entry estimated between 5 to 7 trillion yuan [5]. - The article suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential and performance validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, as well as financial services that benefit from increased market activity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to the Hang Seng Index and its implications for investors, highlighting the inclusion and exclusion of specific stocks and the expected capital flows resulting from these changes [2][3][5]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index has included China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart, with respective weights of 1.44%, 0.51%, and 0.22%, increasing the total number of constituent stocks to 88 [3]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has added Pop Mart with a weight of 2.10%, while Jitu Express has been removed, maintaining the total number of constituent stocks at 50 [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw no changes, keeping its 30 constituent stocks unchanged [3]. Group 2: Capital Flow Implications - For the Hang Seng Index, the expected capital inflows from the newly included stocks are approximately $160 million for China Telecom, $68.74 million for JD Logistics, and $45 million for Pop Mart, with respective inflow durations of 4.4 days, 3.5 days, and 1.0 day [3]. - The potential capital outflow from China Bank due to weight changes could reach $12 million, with an outflow duration of about 0.6 days [3]. - In the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Pop Mart is expected to bring in $15 million, with an inflow duration of approximately 0.3 days, while Jitu Express may see an outflow of about $4.993 million over 1.2 days [4]. Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - The article anticipates 20 new stocks to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with 19 stocks likely to be removed, aligning closely with previous predictions [5]. - The potential new additions include companies such as China Foods, Caocao Travel, and Nanshan Aluminum International, while removals include companies like Xirui and Youkang Vision [5]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The adjustments will be implemented on September 5 and will officially take effect on September 8, with passive funds expected to rebalance their portfolios on the implementation date, leading to significant trading volume increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the U.S. dollar's hegemony is not diminishing but is being undermined by the U.S. government's excessive debt issuance and the politicization of its "safe asset" status, which erodes global investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [2][27][28]. Group 1: Foundation of Dollar Hegemony - The foundation of dollar hegemony lies in the consensus around U.S. Treasuries as a "safe asset," characterized by long-term value retention, liquidity, and negative beta properties during crises [3][6]. - The concept of "exorbitant privilege" refers to the unique advantages the U.S. enjoys as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, allowing it to issue debt to cover trade deficits without significant repercussions [4][11]. Group 2: Manifestations of Dollar Hegemony - Dollar hegemony manifests in three key privileges: low-interest financing, the ability to roll over debt without repayment, and enhanced fiscal space during crises [9][10][13]. - Low-interest financing results from the high liquidity and quality of U.S. Treasuries, leading to a "convenience yield" that lowers the cost of borrowing for the U.S. [10][11]. - The U.S. can sustain high levels of debt without immediate repayment obligations, effectively engaging in a "Ponzi-like" financing model, as long as interest rates remain below economic growth rates [13][14]. Group 3: Current Status of Dollar Hegemony - The current status of dollar hegemony is challenged by the U.S. government's excessive debt issuance, which has pushed the debt-to-GDP ratio above 120%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [27][28]. - The politicization of U.S. Treasuries, exemplified by the freezing of foreign reserves, has created uncertainty about their status as a "safe asset," potentially leading to a loss of confidence among global investors [28][29]. - The absence of "ultimate buyers" for U.S. debt, as countries diversify their reserves away from Treasuries, poses a significant risk to the maintenance of the dollar's hegemonic status [30].