Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the rapid development and potential of intelligent driving technology, highlighting its transformative impact on urban mobility and the automotive industry [1][2][3]. Group 2: Technology Engine Behind Intelligent Driving - The end-to-end architecture is a significant innovation in intelligent driving, reducing data annotation difficulty and optimizing data processing through unique algorithms, which enhances vehicle responsiveness to road conditions [2][3]. - The introduction of visual language models and cloud models improves the system's ability to handle complex scenarios, akin to equipping vehicles with sharper "eyes" [3]. Group 3: Current Development of Intelligent Driving - The high-speed Navigation on Autopilot (NOA) feature is expected to be scaled up in 2024, becoming a standard for intelligent driving vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan [5]. - The penetration rate of urban NOA is projected to reach 6.5% in 2024, driven by increased consumer acceptance and reduced costs, expanding its availability to more consumers [7]. Group 4: Business Model of Intelligent Driving - The L2++ intelligent driving software faces challenges in charging fees due to low consumer willingness to pay, leading most automakers to standardize systems to accumulate users and data [11]. - Some leading automakers are exploring buyout or subscription payment models, with promotional activities to attract customers [11][12]. Group 5: Benefits of Urban NOA - Urban NOA is expected to drive sales of high-configured, high-margin models, as consumers are likely to prefer higher-end vehicles once the technology gains market acceptance [13][14]. - The overlap in technology requirements between Robotaxi and urban NOA is anticipated to enhance intelligent driving system capabilities, potentially leading to a shift towards mobility services by 2025 [15]. Group 6: Globalization of Intelligent Driving Industry - China's late start in intelligent driving is countered by rapid development, with domestic companies gaining advantages in technology and production experience, positioning them favorably in the global market [16]. - Collaborations between joint venture automakers and domestic intelligent driving companies are expected to facilitate access to international projects and opportunities for global expansion [16][17].

Strategy - Current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has recovered to last October's high, but lacks catalysts from sentiment, interest rates, and fundamentals in the short term [3] - Although tariff negotiations have progressed better than expected, the urgency for policy intervention has decreased, leading to insufficient internal economic momentum and persistent external uncertainties [3] - Southbound capital inflows have slowed, and active foreign capital continues to flow out, despite the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting nearly 130 billion HKD into liquidity [3] - The increase in placements and IPOs may dilute liquidity, suggesting that the market may experience fluctuations or pullbacks before more catalysts emerge [3] - The strategy of "actively intervening during low periods and taking profits during exuberance" remains appropriate, with opportunities to enter at lower costs after adjustments in existing holdings [3] Economic Data - April economic data shows a slowdown in year-on-year growth, with industrial value-added and service production indices at 6.1% and 6.0% respectively [12] - Export growth has slowed due to tariff impacts, with the value of exports from large industrial enterprises increasing by only 0.9% year-on-year [12] - Retail sales in April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by policies like the "old-for-new" program, although some categories like furniture and automobiles saw declines [12] - Fixed asset investment for January to April accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with equipment investment showing a significant increase of 18.2% [12] Industry Capacity Cycle - The importance of capacity cycles in industry allocation has increased, with a strong correlation between industry performance and capacity cycles over the past three years [15] - A decline in capital expenditure among non-financial enterprises by 4.9% year-on-year indicates a shift towards negative growth in capital spending, impacting capacity construction and expansion [15] - Some industries are beginning to see improvements in fundamentals, with new demand catalyzing a resumption of capital expenditure growth, presenting potential investment opportunities [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the CICC Insight Model, designed to enhance research efficiency in the financial sector by providing accurate, reliable, and in-depth research content amidst the vast amount of AI-generated information [1][5]. Group 1: Application Scenarios - The CICC Insight Model serves three main application scenarios: improving data accuracy, delivering core investment insights, and extracting comprehensive meeting value while ensuring user privacy [1]. - It integrates 120,000 high-quality indicators and comprehensive financial data from listed companies, enabling precise matching of important investment variables and visualizing results effectively [1][2]. Group 2: AI Search and Information Accuracy - The model addresses the challenge of content accuracy in AI-generated information by incorporating leading domestic reasoning models and leveraging CICC analysts' accumulated research frameworks [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of structured thinking and the ability to trace information sources, ensuring that key influencing factors are summarized effectively [3]. Group 3: Intelligent Meeting Summaries - The model supports bilingual meeting recognition and outputs a concise summary in both Chinese and English [4]. - It can extract Q&A information from meetings and respond to further inquiries, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of meeting highlights [5]. Group 4: Privacy and Accessibility - The model guarantees user privacy by physically deleting files within 24 hours, ensuring no residual data is left [5]. - It is accessible through a mini-program and can be integrated via API or localized connections, enhancing user experience [7][8].

点击小程序查看报告原文 日本央行（正式名称：日本银行，Bank of Japan，简称"日银"）对全球金融市场有着重要影响，2022年1月以来，我们开启"中金看日银"相关系列报告，持 续追踪日本央行动向，目前已相继发布了61篇报告（详情参考文末《中金看日银》系列报告一览表）。 结论：近期日本长端利率受石破首相的发言而明显上升，但我们认为相关影响或会逐步消退。我们认为未来长端利率若继续大幅明显上升，则存在日本央 行临时增加购债来平稳市场的可能性。基本面方面，在通胀背景下日本政府为最大受益主体，日本财政的状况在过去数年边际明显改善，我们认为或无需 过度担心日本国债的风险。 事件： 5月20日，日本财务省举行的20年期国债拍卖结果出炉，投标倍数仅为2.5倍，远低于上个月的2.96倍，创下2012年以来的最低纪录，而尾差(平均 价格与最低成交价之间的差距)则飙升至1.14日元，为1987年9月以来的最高水准。拍卖结束后，二级市场中的最新发行的30年债与40年债的利率也突破了 历史新高(注：日本30年、40年债发行历史较短，皆始于90年代日本泡沫经济崩溃之后)。截至5月19日，日本10、20、30、40年利率分别升至1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous cooling of U.S. and Japanese bond auctions, along with rising interest rates, indicates tightening global liquidity, which may lead to systemic liquidity shocks in the U.S. market as new U.S. debt issuance increases following the resolution of the debt ceiling issue [1][18]. Global Liquidity Tightening - Since June 2022, major developed countries' central banks have initiated quantitative tightening (QT), resulting in a significant decline in the asset-to-GDP ratios of the U.S., Japan, Europe, and the UK by 12.1%, 14.0%, 29.3%, and 17.6 percentage points respectively by the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The total liquidity provided by these central banks has reverted to pre-pandemic levels, while the pressure on global asset valuations has exceeded pre-pandemic levels [1][3]. - The market capitalization of U.S. listed companies has increased by 82.9% from $38.5 trillion to $70.3 trillion since 2019, while nominal GDP has only grown by 35.4% [1][6]. Impact on U.S. Market - The tightening of global liquidity is particularly evident in the U.S. market, where the dollar has become more of an investment currency rather than a financing currency due to high borrowing costs [7][9]. - There has been a notable increase in net foreign investment in U.S. assets over the past two years, indicating reliance on overseas funds for dollar asset valuations [7][9]. Risks in Japanese Bond Market - The Japanese bond market is showing signs of vulnerability, with rising yields and decreasing demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as the Bank of Japan reduces its purchases [11][13]. - The tightening of yen liquidity may force Japanese financial institutions to withdraw from dollar assets, exacerbating the pressure on U.S. assets [11][17]. Liquidity Risks and Potential for QE - The resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling is expected to lead to a significant increase in net U.S. debt issuance, potentially reaching $1.25 trillion from July to September, which could sharply tighten dollar liquidity [18][19]. - Rising interest rates and liquidity constraints may suppress U.S. equities and increase the pressure on Japanese financial institutions to divest from dollar assets, leading to systemic risks in the U.S. market [18][19].

中金研究 我们认为国内营养健康食品行业长期发展潜力大。规模上，我国营养健康食品行业规模超350亿美元，行业增速较快。格局上，当前我国营养健康食品 行业集中度不高，我们认为部分下游品牌及中游代工龙头有望凭借其优势持续提升份额。我们认为行业呈现分层，品质市场以"大单品+研发优势"构建 护城河，新消费市场重在"需求洞察+品类创新+线上化"能力。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 市场机遇：我国营养健康食品规模大增速快，但行业集中度有所下行。 规模上， 据欧睿数据，2024年全球营养健康食品市场规模为1,868亿美元，中国市 场占比19%且2010-2024年规模CAGR为9.1%，驱动因素包括：1）需求端：健康意识提升、人口老龄化趋势、Z世代客群渗透；2）供给端：产品功能细分 化。 格局上， 据欧睿数据，中国营养健康食品行业CR5由2015年的32.2%降至2024年的25.8%，而新消费品牌随着线上占比的提升加速渗透，2016至2023 年行业长尾品牌份额由35%增长至42%。我们认为部分优秀的下游品牌有望通过拓渠道及创新品进一步提升份额，同时中游代工龙头企业有望凭借综合竞 争实力与各品牌合作提高份额。 ...

中金研究 汽车工业是我国国民经济发展的支柱产业，对于拉动经济、稳定内需、贡献税收、创造就业发挥重要作用。我国自2000年开始进入汽车消费普及期，为了 稳定内需，国家和地方层面出台一系列政策措施，包括税收政策、补贴政策、放宽或取消限购等。 在国内经济稳增长和全球化逆风的背景下，汽车行业是政策发力稳定内需的重要抓手。伴随国内汽车销量逐步恢复，接近2017年高点，如何充分释放 车市潜能，制定有效的刺激政策尤为重要。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 稳定汽车消费的政策工具丰富，购置税和以旧换新刺激力度大。 1）税收政策：目前征税集中在流通环节，对使用环节征税较少。购置税减征刺激效果突 出，其他税负减征空间较小。2）补贴政策：此类工具阻力更低、支出更可控、细则更灵活，包括汽车下乡、以旧换新、购置补贴等。以旧换新同时促进 汽车消费和节能减排，是近两年"两新"工作的重点内容。3）限购政策：探索逐步放宽限购为政策导向，我们测算限购区域大约影响购车需求超过650万 辆。 央地协同政策效果突出，需要关注新能源政策平缓退出。 复盘历史四轮大规模稳定汽车消费政策，中央财政提供有力支持。2009-2010年和2015-201 ...

中金研究 虽然面临外部关税政策不确定性，4月经济数据同比增速皆有所放缓，但是政策持续对冲，经济数据整体保持稳健。生产端来看，工业增加 值、服务业生产指数同比分别为6.1%、6.0%（3月分别为7.7%、6.3%）。需求端来看，出口受关税影响增速放缓，规上工企出口交货值同比 0.9%（3月为7.7%），环比回落幅度高于前期公布的海关出口数据，或体现为库存的增加，4月产销率同比降幅扩大。政策持续对冲，消费品 以旧换新支撑社零，4月社零同比5.1%（3月为5.9%），以旧换新品类中，家电、文化办公等增速上升，而家具、通讯器材、汽车等增速下 降。1-4月固定资产投资累计同比4.0%（1-3月为4.2%），其中设备更新改造支撑1-4月设备工器具投资累计同比18.2%。房地产、基建、制造 业投资累计同比分别为-10.3%、10.9%、8.8%（1-3月分别为-9.9%、11.5%、9.1%），皆有所回落，但是基建支持作用持续凸显。展望未来， 我们认为虽然关税缓和，但是仍有一定不确定性，而内生性需求仍弱，仍需政策进一步对冲。针对上述经济数据我们将从宏观及相关行业角 度进行详细解读。 宏观 在关税冲击下，4月经济数据同比增速 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 美国方面，特朗普政府上任以来持续的不确定性促使美国经济边际转弱。一季度GDP环比年化增速-0.3%，低于预期的0.3%和前值2.4%，消费走 低，企业大幅增加进口。不过美国经济虽然上行乏力，但下行也有底。居民只是延缓消费而非无力消费，企业虽预期走弱，但并未减少雇佣，劳动 力市场基本稳健，地产需求也相对平稳。贸易不确定引发4月全球资本市场剧烈震荡，尤其罕见的美国股债汇"三杀"（详见 《特朗普"大重置"：债 务化解、脱虚向实、美元贬值》 ）。连续美债"杀"加速了政策调整，4月9日特朗普宣布对等关税延期90天，贸易谈判开启，助推市场在4月下旬开 始修复。我们认为，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明释放乐观信号，修复趋势有望在未来一个月持续。同时我们提示，美债上限立法最快可能在6月 通过，7月开始美债净融资规模可能较大，并引发流动性紧缩风险（详见 《美国流动性冲击、重启QE与主权财富基金》 ）。 国内方面，4月国内市场受海外超预期关税政策影响，中国股市先抑后扬，整体呈现出较强的韧性。 4月8日，中央汇金公司表示将发挥类"平准基 金"作用，且央行表示将在必要时向中央汇金公司提供再贷款支 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 5月12日中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，关税下调幅度超预期（ 《中美关税"降级"的资产 含义》 ），情绪提振带动港股市场整体反弹。不过，随着利好情绪逐步消化，港股市场在周一恒指大涨 2.98%后四个交易日重回震荡。 全周来看，恒生指数上涨2.1%，MSCI中国、恒生科技与恒生国企分别上涨2.3%、2.0%与1.9%。行业层面， 媒体和娱乐（+4.1%）、银行（+3.5%）、运输（+2.9%）等多数板块上涨，医疗保健（-0.1%）板块则逆势 下跌。 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 市场走到哪一步了？情绪已修复至去年10月高点 此次关税调降对中美市场情绪和基本面起到明显缓和作用，市场情绪迅速修复。从关税超预期抬升，到关税 超预期调降，市场涨跌始终受情绪主导。例如，本周恒生指数上涨2.1%，风险溢价回落贡献2.3%是绝对主 导。对比之下，盈利小幅贡献0.5%，无风险利率走高反而拖累。 当前情绪已基本修复， 恒生指数的风险溢价降至6.1%，甚至低于"对等关税"前的6.4%，这一水平已经与去 年10月市场高点对应的水平相当。 实际上，在关税降级之前，市场已经基本修复了"对 ...